Nintendo the next Sega?
by James Ransom-Wiley 
{ Jan 25th 2005 at 12:49PM }
There was a time when the Nintendo/Sega rivalry seemed destined for the ages, when we scoffed at the idea of Sony
entering the gaming industry, when… yeah. Well, we were wrong. With all of this talk of Nintendo next in
line to jump off of the hardware ship, industry analysts are quick to point out that the old dog sold more hardware
units than any other company in 2004. Still, Nintendo's latest string of home consoles hasn't exactly gotten the
job done, and it's not hard to imagine a day when Nintendo will only be in the palm of your hand.
Nothing new here, but this article
examines more of Nintendo's latest dilemma.
[Thanks, striegs]
UPDATE: Details on Nintendo's fiscal earnings/forecast through March 2005… Here!
[Thanks, fistula]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
G. Freeman @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
This is a fairly good read.
The more I think about Revolution and the future of Nintendo, the more excited I become. It isn't every day that we can look forward to a major video game player truly bringing something new to the table. With the next offerings from Sony and Microsoft, expect more of the same. Faster processors, more surface mapping and a host of other techno-gobbledygook. Does any of that actually change the way you play games? Does it make anything substantially better?
Luke @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
It is a nice read. But I definitely don't think Nintendo will be out of the hardware business anytime soon. I especially like the part about perspective. In North America, the Gamecube is #3. But it's not a distant 3. In fact Xbox and GC have been neck and neck almost the whole way. The author points out how in Japan, many people would consider the Xbox "a failure" just because it doesn't bring as much hype as PS2 or GC.
I also agree with the author though, in that if the Revolution ends up being like another N64 or GC (which were NOT failures), it's going to be tough. Even though the N64 and GC were profitable for Nintendo, they *have* to pick up more market share in the next console generation.
SetupWeasel @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
Sega had financial problems, Nintendo does not.
Can we please... PLEASE stop talking about Nintendo's non-existant impending doom.
matsimpsk @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
Have I missed something? Last time I checked, Nintendo were rapidly selling DSs, making money on the GameCube, making money on the GBA and are still probably counting the profits from the N64, SNES, NES and the earlier Game Boys. The only hardware faliure I can think of was the Virtual Boy.
Sega, on the other hand, had problems with the 32X, Saturn and Dreamcast and had got themselves into a big pickle in the arcade business.
Help me! I really don't see the connection.
Edge @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
I don't know that Nintendo HAS to pick up more market share in order to be successful. I think they could happily sell consoles to Nintendo fans forever.
I have a feeling that, whatever the new things Revolution will be different enough that your standard Madden-buying-thug won't 'get it'.
You forget that 90% of everything in the world is crap and that 90% of the public is fine with that.
I hate to compare Nintendo to Apple, but I will. Nintendo could continue to be the Apple of video games, creating quality hardware/software that the unwashed masses can't appreciate.
Gaboman2099 @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
Oh,G. Freeman!! Don't give me that cynic "graphics arn't bettering gamplay" line. I laught at it!! Without more advanced tech, games like Shenmue, Mario 64, Half Life/2 etc. And i don't know how much of an economic failure N64 was, but two years in it i could have rented all it's games and still buy a Dreamcast. It's not about "Nintendo is winning 5$ every two Gamecubes". It's like this "Nintendo is losing customers every 20 minutes". If you think they are doing so hot, mention why they are dropping out of this generation so fast.every one is going stronger than usual at this point in console live. Mention 5 Gamecube games in this year, then boil it down to the great ones. Mario Party 23?
And to make my point:
Jade Empire.
Phantom Dust.
Doom 3.
Conker:LAR("we don't need you, Rare!")
Ghost Recon 2
Iron Phoenix
Rainbow 6: Lockdown
VS
Zelda
Resident Evil 4
Impending Doom!!? Who said anything about "impending"?
eb @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
The media wouldnt paint such a grim picture of nintendo if they had to kiss ass like they do to M$ and sony. As long as nintendo keeps making games im going to keep buying.
RobTheBuilder @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
Yet again another article that sees impending doom in the biggest selling AND most profitable games company in the world.
Its like saying Microsoft will go bust because of Firefox...
DS Online news is exciting, and the Revolution is the first console ive been truly excited about since the original PSX.
Luke @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
True, Nintendo doesn't *have* to pick up more market share, but it would be nice!
The only problem with the "Nintendo will just sell consoles to Nintendo fans" idea is that Nintendo isn't doing much (that I can see) to get new Nintendo fans. My nephews are 6 and 9, and they have a PS2, and all their friends have a PS2, and they only even think about playing GameCube games when I bring mine over to their house. When I was there age (god, I getting old), the NES was all the rage, and people associated gaming with Nintendo. I really don't think people do that as much anymore. Maybe they shouldn't. And like has been noted many times before, Nintendo is one of the most profitable companies in gaming, if not *the* most profitable.
The industry has matured, so "Edge's" analogy to Apple is accurate. Maybe the industry is big enough that there can be a successful platform that only holds onto a fraction of the market as the competitors. Of course Nintendo currently enjoys much more than that "fraction", but you see what I mean.
Gaboman2099 @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
So, Nintendo will bring a usher a new ERa in gaming, a true innovation in the world of gaming that will change EVERYTHING...
So...what is it?
Do you even know? "It's thinking"? Emotion Engine? Toy Story grafics?
Or maybe we should take a more Nintendo aproach?
R.O.B., Connectivity, a giant Bazooka, perhaps?
You Nintenders speak merely out of passion, yet do not fail to make your point in facts.
XBox innovations:
Xbox Live(Online play and downloadable content)
Hard Drive
Custom soundtrack (save discs on Hard Drive/Play during games)
Home theater quality audio Dolby Digital 5.1(5 discreet channels oposed to dolby sorround)
HDTV
Sistem Link:up to 4 Xboxes for a total of 16 playas'
Gamecube-Only-features.
Only console that you can take to Kindergarden without looking cool.
Only current console without online.
Only current console without some sort of DVD playback.
Only console that connects to GBA(as opposed to something usefull like PC or USB cable.
SetupWeasel @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
XBOX-only features:
11 straight quarters without a profit.
Over $1 Billion in total losses.
Gaboman2099.
Luke @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
SetUpWeasle: Oh snap!
Zoiks @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
GameCube: Only console with a decent controller designed for Human Hands.
GameCube: Only console that is portable enough to take to your friends house for Lan games.
GameCube: Only console with first-party, kick-ass wireless controllers.
As for what we know about Revolution, not much. At least we aren't being fed lies like those from Sony.
"from your mobile phone, you send an e-mail telling the machine to turn up the air-conditioning at home. "Welcome home," it purrs when you open the front door; it then puts your video e-mail on the TV monitor. You command the PS2 to download the movie you want and play it 30 minutes later. Mid-film, you stop to cue up a video game featuring the movie's main characters. Then you e-mail a virtual friend you met online who also likes this game; you face off against each other"
What a lie! Shit like this makes me never trust another thing Sony has to say.
Eric N. @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
I agree with Edge (5); Nintendo is really the Apple of the gaming world. They started it. They've been the leaders of innovation in the field. They both have about the same amount of money in the bank (6 billion)...The similarities go on and on.
I believe that both Nintendo and Apple have the best designers (good engineers, but great designers). I think the key difference right now however is that Apple is clearly much cooler than Nintendo.
Luke @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
Zoiks: That was just hilarious.
But you are mistaken. It's the PSP that does all that.
Gaboman2099 @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
News flash: Xbox just went PROFITABLE!
Funny thing about Microsoft is... thet can affors to lose one Billion dollars. They earn more than one monthly. But why do we care?
Xbox Live. It's the best online gaming service out there. Deny it. What's better? Deny online is the next fronteer in Consoles. Sure, Gamecube could have online games. But it doesn't, because Nintendo didn't care.
Pokemon MMORPG? Even i'd like it. But they don't.
Another thing. Sega denied it. Atari denied it. Everyone denies it. But when your about to let down all your fans, announcing it is the hardest part. I should know. I had a Dreamcast.
SetupWeasel @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
$300 million in Halo 2 sales in one quarter only managed to bring Microsoft's Games and Entertainment division $84 Million in profit for the same quarter. This still does not make the XBOX profitable as $84 million profit in this quarter is less than the more than $1 billion losses in 11 previous quarters (I've heard estimates of over $2 billion).
And of course this quarter has no Halo 2. Microsoft figures that the XBOX *might* become *sustainably* profitable sometime in *fiscal year 2007*, and will continue to lose money until that time. I imagine that Microsoft's estimates call for increased market-share and sales that are in no way guaranteed.
Nintendo recently had to revise their full fiscal-year profit estimate down to their pre-November estimate. Sounds bad, until you realize that they will make around $700 million profit this fiscal year (ending March 31) by their estimates, and the market thinks they will make even more. (People bought more DSs than Nintendo thought they would, but not as many games per DS.)
Someone please tell me how a company that is making $700 million dollars this year is dying.
The Lynxpro @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
To Eric N., poster #14 who said the following: "I agree with Edge (5); Nintendo is really the Apple of the gaming world. They started it." And I say to you, no they [Nintendo] didn't. Atari gave birth to the video game industry in 1972 with the arcade game "Pong." Sure, there was Ralph Baer and the Magnovox, but they were just the particles before the big Bushnell bang. Atari started this industry. Atari had the 2600 VCS, which not only was the first real game system with separate game media, but it was also the most successful console. You Nintendites really piss me off when you act like Nintendo started everything; they just capitalized off the mistakes Atari made as being the "first." Most of their ideas were taken from Atari. If you look at the GBA connectivity feature with the Gamecube and you had half a brain, you'd know that Atari worked on that with the Lynx and the Jaguar (using the Lynx handheld as a smart controller) back in 1994 but ran out of money before they could bring that feature to the market. Oh yeah, the Lynx. The handheld that Nintendo didn't even top technologically until the release of the GBA...and the Lynx came out in 1989. There's your "innovative" company in action. And if you really want to get technical, the only reason why Nintendo became a success is because they locked in exclusive licensing terms with their third party developers in the U.S. with the NES which precluded those same third party companies from porting their titles to the Sega Master System and the Atari 7800. If the NES was so damn hot, then it could've rendered both brothers in "Double Dragon" on the screen at the same time, but it couldn't. Funny how the Atari 7800 could, yet it was designed before the NES. It was monopolistic practices that made Nintendo a success in the late 80s, not their hardware prowess. Kinda like another software company headquartered up in Washington... The other comparison doesn't work out either. Nintendo is not the Apple of the videogame business. There is nothing the Gamecube does better than the Xbox. Apple has OS X, which is a far better OS than Windows. So the only way that comparison holds up at all is the fact that the Gamecube has a limited software library (in comparison to the PS2) much like how the Macs have less software titles than Windows. However, Macs do have Microsoft Office on their platform whereas the Gamecube certainly does't have Halo2 ported to it. No comparison... And back to the Lynx. How many GBA's can you hook up together for competitive play? The Atari Lynx could hook up 8 Lynxes together via the ComLynx port. That was innovation...again, back in 1989...and in color....
william @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
^true. But hey nintendo is still devloping systems TODAY. It all depends on whether it works or doesn't. Even you said the lynx linking wasn't put to market because atari ran out of money in '94. Nintendo while not the starter of the industry, helped make gaming more serious and more enjoyable. Nintendo's first console helped the gaming industry pull away from the arcadish type games and ideas atari systems pushed. At least Nintendo knows how to make their systems/ideas WORk even if the idea was already out there .
AznFX @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
The Lynxpro makes a good point, Sega was the next Atari...
Luke @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
The Lynxpro: How are you going to account for Nintendo innovating the D-pad, the rumble pack, standardizing the analog stick, and reinventing the video game industry as we know it? And most importantly the games? Nintendo made/makes some damn innovative games.
And there are at least two things the Gamecube does better than the Xbox. 1 is make killer 1st party games for their own system, and 2 is consistently make a profit.
So Nintendo wasn't a perfect company at the beginning (the monopolistic practices you speak of), but it is ironic how the current "competition" is Sony (one of the largest companies in the world) and Microsoft (another one of the largest companies in the world). I think that taking a billion dollar a year punch simply to get market share is somewhat "monopolistic".
WizarDru @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
Nintendo is hardly faltering. They simply aren't the market leader, any longer. That's a cold hard fact. But neither is Atari, and Sony knows that it's position is vulnerable. Microsoft certainly hopes it is.
Atari is an excellent example of a company that wasn't run terribly well. The Lynx was a terrible system on several very important standpoints, such as weight and battery consumption. It FAILED at it's core competency, namely being a portable gaming system. I know, I still have mine. It had a terrible selection of games, higher price, poor release schedule and little in the way of advertising or support. Being connected with the Jaguar wouldn't have been much of a boon...the Lynx was a smashing success by comparison to the Jaguar. The Lynx, like the Gamegear, didn't fail due to technical inferiority...quite the opposite: they failed because they were so impressed with their own technical achievements, they failed to understand that technology alone does not sell a device.
The PSP will succeed or fail on it's ability to deliver on it's core abilities. These will be determined by the marketplace and real world performance. Will the PSP have the games? Undoubtedly. Will it fail? I doubt it. Will it be the smashing success that dominates? I suspect it won't be, unless Sony releases a second iteration of the hardware, not unlike what they've done more than once with the PS1 and PS2.
DaTruth @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
Coming from a long time Nintendo fan you can look at this situation in two ways. 1. Nintendo has always dominated in the handheld market and may or may not continue to do so in light of the upcoming PSP. 2. Whether you like it or not Nintendo is dissapointing its fans with its home consoles. How many Pikmans and Pokemans can we take. For those that claim Nintendos software is innovative and refreshing please feel free to name a few titles? I bet you can count them on your hands. The DS is very innovative but just seems to be a quick counter to the superior PSP. We will see some changes in Nintendo and it doesnt matter how much money they make off of their handhelds, they are heading for trouble. The Gamecube is just not a profitable console, what happened to all the exclusive games? Vietiful Joe, Resident Evil 4? Even Capcom is seeing the Gamecube as a risk. Nintendo sees this as well, which is why it put its key characters into non-nintendo games to attempt to boost software sales. Nba Street with Peach? Dance revolution with Mario? No. Open your eyes, Nintendo will be just like Sega and it is only a matter of time. I give them one more console and its a wrap. I dont have to doubt the PSP at this moment because it will blow away the DS and Gameboy Advance by a longshot. It is Nintendo's attitude of "Games have reached their peak and consumers are no longer interested in graphics" that will destroy them. I waited 2 years for Resident Evil 4, only to find out it will be on PS2 by the end of the year. My Gamecube was not touched once in 2004. Yes im pissed. The Gamecube is a disapointment and this is coming from a fan.
gaboman2099 @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
Don't talk to an an Xbox owner about kick ass first party! Then we have to cite Halo/Halo 2. Then you expect usw to stop.We say Gotham/Gotham 2. Your point is almost not valid. Fable? Sudeki? Upcoming Forza, Jade Empire and Conker: Live and Reloaded. Maybe those don't count as kick ass to you, since you they don't MARIO and PIKACHU. But they are new franchises, kick ass, and yes Virginia, innovative.
But to stay in the theme of profitability, N64 was not profitable for developers because of expensive medium. But now that that is almost gone, developers still usually avoid giving Gamecube Xclusives. Allright, you get more Capcom than us, i'll give you that. But why don't you get Grand Theft Auto? Where are the Square-Enix stuff? Why does Xbox have more all around titles? Because they see money in it. Flailing companies usually give Cube' the shoulder first because it's unaffordable. Really. It's a fact. So i'll just sit here until someone names 5 actual innovative Cube titles, names the innovations, and admits one of Nintendo's former presidents said "we cannot stay in the console buissness in it's current state". Class is over. You have been schooled.
"once RE4 is out, they (Capcom) no longer envison working with Nintendo."
SetupWeasel @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
Halo/Halo 2? I liked it better the first time, when it was called Unreal Tournament. Forza Motorsport? Gran Turismo is already up to sequel #3. Project Gotham? I've never seen a decent ARCADE RACER before. Jade Empire? I don't know much about that one, but it looks a lot like PoP: Sands of time from the screens I've seen. Conker? Seriously, are you retarded? THAT is a sequel to a NINTENDO 64 EXCLUSIVE. Next you will be touting Perfect Dark 2 as an original, new, XBOX franchise.
Some actual innovative Cube titles published or developed by Nintendo and, unlike your list, already sold in stores:
- Animal Crossing (communication game)
- Pac-Man Vs (4 players, one console, hides the full map from the 3 ghosts successfully.)
- Metroid Prime (part shooter, part adventure, part platformer, an enirely new genre)
- Pikmin (mere words fail me)
- Zelda: Four Swords Adventures (control 4 Players on one console and allow each player to enter different houses/dungeons at the same time)
- Cubivore (Evolution game)
- There are more, but that's good enough.
Not that the opinion of a former Nintendo President really matters, but I challenge you to cite a source for your quote. And a source for that last one.
I mean I just heard on TV that Bill Gates said, "Those XBOX suckers are a bunch of dorks, can you believe they PAY for the shit we produce."
And the President of SquareEnix called XBOX owners "Assclowns"
Geez! @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
Another article full of innacuracys and strange bias against Nintendo!
Nintendo are set to make 750 Million Dollars (American) profit this fiscal year and that has been revised down due to poor exchange rates.
Microsoft (GD) just made their first profit last quarter, $84 Million, but add the hundreds of Millions lost in the previous two quarters and the losses sure to come this quarter then bingo another huge year of operating losses from the xbox!
Sony (CE) are also not going to record any profits compared to Nintendo - I have a strange feeling that SCE might report losses after huge hits the PSP and worldwide shortages of PStwo at key seasonal times. One thing for sure is Nintendo's profit will be far bigger than Sony's.
Nintendo made more money last generation than Sony, and will again this generation. Who (in business and market analyst) cares about smaller sales (compared to PS2) when you make more money - Nintendo have won every generation and will win this generation also, fact.
Can I honestly ask why there is so many unfounded articles about Nintendo these days - people should be ashamed of themselves.
Thankfully we have people like Luke and setupweasel with industry knowledge here to rubbish these claims, and show the unfounded bias by people like gabboman - spend more time learning about business and the industry and less playing xbox fanboys on Live.
Geez! @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
And just to show how good things stand for Nintendo this little snippet from John Romero, Doom creator, ina recent interview.
"Game Daily: Lastly, what are some of the changes that gamers will see over the next couple of years with the launches of new consoles from Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo?
John Romero: Expect a ton of graphics of high quality. I don't see any revolutions in game design on the XBOX2 and PS3, but we'll see something interesting on the Nintendo Revolution and the Nintendo DS is already doing some cool stuff with the dual screens. I truly respect Nintendo's forward thinking."
The future at Nintendo HQ is a very bright one thankfully, the industry would be a lifeless shell without the Japanese giant. It's sad to see all the kids of today that have no respect for the company who have given us everything!
Bryan @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
The article seems to be a little anti-nintendo as much of the media seems to be. One point that erked me was the comment and I quote "...Big N’s persisting lack of a Halo-level killer app for the GameCube". Now if we do not go strickly on sales numbers but on the actual quality of the game how can the likes Metroid Prime and RE4 not be considered killer apps. Ive played Halo 2 and Metroid Prime 2 and given the choise between one of these games I would choose Metroid everytime. Also, is there a better 1st party publisher than Nintendo? I think not. Sony, I think is a joke besides G.T. and Xbox fairs somewhat better but is in no way as consistent in quality as Nintendo. As long as Nintendo continues to make quality games consistently I do not forsee them going the way of Sega.
Jake Fry @ Dec 18th 2005 9:58PM
#10:
"Jade Empire.
Phantom Dust.
Doom 3.
Conker:LAR("we don't need you, Rare!")
Ghost Recon 2
Iron Phoenix
Rainbow 6: Lockdown
VS
Zelda
Resident Evil 4
Impending Doom!!? Who said anything about "impending"?"
Why the hell do these stupid people keep posting such assinine reasons for Nintendo to go 3rd party or out of business or whatever? Do they actually think the reasons are justified or are they just trying to start flame wars? This is a perfect example of retards acting like they know anything at all about what theyre talking about when they have no f*cking idea.
Alright, I'll humor myself and go by you're superior intellect in saying zelda and RE4 are the only good games for gamecube this year. First off, half the games you listed havent even been released yet so how can you call them good? Did you notice this or are you just a big f*cking dumbass? It's amazing how you can see so much fault in Nintendo when you're fanboyish blindeye doesnt let you see the mistakes microsoft is making. X box has never been this popular. Thanks mainly to the success of halo 2, xbox sales are high and 3rd party support is also very high. What's a better way to cash in on this than *gasp* RELEASE A NEW CONSOLE!!!!!!
Now, onto why what you said isn't valid (besides the fact that youre a pile of retarded sh*t): So you're saying because the gamecube isnt having a good year (and of course, your fanboy side is saying the xbox is having a good one when microsoft is trying its hardest to get people off xbox and onto the 360), Nintendo is going to go out of business? I'm no sports fanatic, but I know for a fact many sports teams have had a bad year and didn't end up breaking or splitting up or whatever they do. So what makes you think that because the gamecube's last year isnt a very good one that the company is doomed? Theyre still making money off the gamecube and its games and portable sales are doing unbelievably well.
Well look at me, I'm trailing on an on. Let me just wrap this up with a good point. If you want the actual reasons why Nintendo isn't going anywhere, http://revolution.joystiq.com/entry/1234000787045070/#comments read all the comments here where the intelligent people actually have factual numbers and sales data and relevant info. But that's not why I'm posting here. I'm posting here because I am sick of all the f*cking retarded asswipes who actually think they know jacksh*t about this industry and parade around believing Nintendo is going out of business. But what the hell can you do about it? Stupidity can only be cured with ambition.
And lemme give you a lil glimpse into the future. I can't see videogames advancing any further after this generation. Do you really think people are going to care when the PS4 is going to have 3 cell chips in it? Do you even think they'll notice? Video games have just about hit the roof when it comes to tech power. Nobody is going to be able to tell the difference between the PS6 and PS5, except maybe the PS6 has 58 USB ports, a 5 terabyte harddrive, and a 100$+ price tag. If microsoft and Sony are the only two left creating hardware, theres gonna be another video game crash. It happened in the late 70's, early 80's, and Nintendo saved the day. The DS and hopefully the revolution controller are Nintendo's attempts to save the gaming industry once again. Japan is already feeling the beginning of the crash, and the DS is doing amazing there. Nintendo actually cares about the gaming industry.