Predicted Playstation 3 market share of 53%
by Conrad Quilty-Harper 
{ Jul 11th 2005 at 1:05PM }
Zdnet has done some rummaging through some market research which reports a possible 53% (hardware) market share in
favor of Sony for their PS3. It's hard to tell from the blog entry whether or not their figure of a $20 Billion market
by 2009 is referring to the PS3 alone, but I guess that doesn't matter. What does matter is that these guys are saying
that Sony will win the next-gen console market with a healthy lead of 53% and that Microsoft and Nintendo will have to
scrap over the remaining 47%. Of course these figures aren't set in stone and multiple factors could influence the
market share of any of the consoles. What is clear is that Sony won't have the kind of market domination it enjoys
currently with its Playstation 2.
[Thanks, Spartan VIII]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Kuyu @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
That one's a no brainer. Most of the people I know are getting an xbox360, a revolution, and a PS3 "once it gets cheaper."
PS3 sales will surge once they drop the price and include a HDD.
guslav @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
i think this is a realistic projection...all three console manufacterers see sales rise (as video game industry grows), sony continues to be the top dog, but microsoft makes inroads due to a more known brand, xbox live, and a headstart.
though one thing i am curious about. with the cost of the ps3, will this keep people from owning both a ps3 and an xbox360? will people looking for a second console get a revolution instead, as this will likely be considerably cheaper than the other two?
vidGuy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
I think it'll fall more than that.
My prediction:
Hardware distribution by 2009-
PS3- 42%
XBOX360- 46%
Revolution- 12%
Christopher7xii @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
"What is clear is that Sony won’t have the kind of market domination it enjoys currently with its Playstation 2."
What do you base that off of? What makes it so clear?
My preditions are along the lines of
PS3 - 38%
X360 - 32%
NRev - 30%
---
I think everyone is severely doubting Nintendo's drawing power. Not only do they have the most vicious and devote of all fanboys, but it'll also be the cheapest system(by atleast $100 is my guess), which goes well for gifts/Xmas Presents from family members... Not to mention people see it more fit for their kids, and the backwards compatable thing is a big draw. Then of course NRev has it's ace in the hole of 'simple over comlpex" attitude. They are indeed the only company of the 3 that really pushes innovation with it's developers(close relations with their developers helps with this). The NRev will definitely draw in more than a mere 12%, especially if it's the second system out of the doors.
Christopher7xii @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
Also, VidGuy...
"PS3- 42%
XBOX360- 46%
Revolution- 12%"
do some math.
Conrad Quilty-Harper @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
"What is clear is that Sony won’t have the kind of market domination it enjoys currently with its Playstation 2."
What do you base that off of? What makes it so clear?
-
Well if you consider that Sony currently has sold something like 70 million PS2s compared to around 10 million Xboxes and 10 million gamecubes. Then compare that to these figures.
Christopher7xii @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
Conrad Quilty-Harper-
I understand where you're coming from. There was also the big push for buying a PS2 because it was for a good time, the cheapest DVD player on the market. I see (despite everyone else hating blu-ray) this also being a major factor for PS3's. People will purchase it for the use of Blu-Ray. Maybe not as strongly as the PS2's... Still a significant ammount.
You also gotta consider how easy Sony products break, and people having to rebuy their systems =)
Matt Selnekovic @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
"do some math."
42+46=88
88+12=100
k?
Nintendo rocks @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
I don't think many people will buy the PS3 because its just way tto expensive. Parents definetly wont buy it for the kids for xmas and bday presents because they wont want to spend all that money. I think it will be kind of a 3 way tie with xbox and nintendo a little bit in the lead and sony a little behind
kind of like this:
Nintendo: 35%
Xbox: 35%
Playstation: 30%
32_Footsteps @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
I always hate these models, because they assume people just buy one system. I mean, just because 53% of the market might own one console doesn't mean that all of them own only one.
funkonaut @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
#5, what kind of math are you using? Fuzzy math?
1984 @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
revolution- 100%
vidGuy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
I guess I was thinking more of one-console-only homes. guslav is probably right, that, especially in the beginning, the rev will be the 2nd console of choice because of the price. I don't see the average consumer shelling out $700 or so for both the PS3 and 360.
Factoring in multiple console homes, I'd figure it'd be more like:
PS3-36%
360-42%
Rev-22%
Nintendo rocks @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
i would really hope its how #12 predicts it to be
Christopher7xii @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
I use imaginary math. All percents add up to 150 in my head =)
Sorry, glanced at that when my girlfriend was on the phone and took it for 110% for some reason. My bad.
--
I also love how the PS3 is some absurdly huge ammount in everyone's mind. They haven't even announced a price, and I doubt it'll be $100+ more than an X360. We'll see obviously, but I definitely don't see an X360 or PS3 as Xmas gift material.
.bob @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
Why not wait until they stop dropping features and give use some final specs/screens/gameplay before actually *guessing* who will have what market share. Truth is nobody knows how well any of them will do because we don't even know what they'll be like yet, how well they'll be marketed and how good/expensive the games are. You can predict all you like but it's nothing more than a very limited guess.
Why not PS3 52% or 54%? It's as if giving an odd number gives credibility behind these predictions.
word. @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
Wow, everyone underestimates Nintendo, and understandibly so due to recently history. However, I have no doubt that they will at least pull the second position...They really have a solid and exciting strategy this generation.
The undisclosed 'revolutionary' feature will [potentially] be a real reason to buy a new consol. I don't think graphics and power alone will cut it this time. People are getting bored with the same gameplay mechanics...just look at the DS. It is doing extremely well, much better than people expected.
That said, we don't know what the 'revolution' is so what I really want to stress is the attitude they have already presented. And this is where the real revolution is to me...in a way of thinking. Nintendo is dignifying the whole gaming industry by proposing that the entire history of games on all past consoles is important by making theirs available again. This comes at a perfect time as retro gaming is becoming so cool and people are starting to recognize video games as a valid art form.
I think people will be excited by this new perspective on games and the industry will benefit from it as a whole. While presenting their history, Nintendo will also dignify their role of directing the future with the 'revolutionary' feature still to be revealed.
I am extremely excited because I lost interest when nothing much exciting with gameplay happened but graphic improvement after the N64/PS1 generation. I can't wait to see where we might go next.
White Rose Duelist @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
#10
What they're saying is that 53% of consoles sold will be PS3s. This includes households with two or all three consoles.
mr.karmalicious @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
GC and XBOX are somewhere around 20 million each. Sony also counts replacements.
Nintendo rocks @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
#16 is very right, Nintendo should do very well i wanted to put Nintendo higher on my rating % but i didn't want xbox and sony people posting a bunch of things about how there system will do so well
Conrad Quilty-Harper @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
Guys, just remember that this is market research. This is generally based purely on asking people if they'll buy a next-gen console and if so, which one they'll get.
somegamerdude @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
once nintendo shows their controller 80% of people will switch over to buying the Revolution :)
jc @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
How come no one thinks the Phantom is going to be the best selling console??
If we are talking about guessing... here is my $.02:
Sony is promising the moon in hopes that they can get MS to waste time researching 'useless' applications for a console. Once the X360 is set in stone (they are currently still swaying a little), Sony can then decide how they are going to procede.
I think some basic market research is going to show that the market for anything other than a good gaming system is too small, and not worth the risk of losing their core players.
In the long run, Sony, MS and Ndo are going to come out with decent, stripped down versions compared to what they promised early in the design cycle (with sony dropping the most). However, once they are in our hands, we are going to be pleased and distracted enough by the better graphics that we will forget we were promised the moon.
Personally, I hope they stip the useless, expensive crap and leave us the yummy nougat centre.
(sony 40%, ms 34%, nintendo 26%.. a much closer race this time around)
Jordan R @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
Microsoft 10%
Sony 20%
Nintendo 5%
Ms. Pacman virtual reality love system: 65%
I think everyone is guessing out of their asses here. My only prediction is that xbox 360 will do better this round... how much more is anyones guess.
Personally, I hope cell is workable, the 10 memory card slots is overkill, HDD is a must, and Sony is taking some huge gambles... good for them!
I hope this doesn't mean the end of 2D games... 3D games makes me dizzy.
sam @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
What's the error on this "research" +/- 5%?
The way I see it Sony reaallly needs PS3 to be a sucess. The PS brand has become one of their core money makers and they can't afford to lose to much marketshare. Unfortunately, I think they will lose a big chunk of share due to a couple of factors. 1. no clear online strategy. They will need something to compete with Live. I guess they could tap their Station technology. But that looks pretty crude. 2. Joystiq claims the 360 will ship with HD-DVD. If this is true, it make the PS3 less attractive. All depends on what standard is adopted. 3. Overpromising PS3 capabilities. This is the reason I never bought a PS2. I saw those tech demos of the emotion engine and thought the PS2 was gonna ROCK! It came out with games featuring lots of jaggy polygons and looked pretty crappy. If Sony is going to show Killzone2 movies and claim it's real time gameplay, then they better release KZ2 at launch, and it better look like what was shown at E3. This won't happen.
Anyway, I predict
PS3 49%
Xbox 360 49%
Revolution 2% (nintendo has no shot)
jg @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
i see xbox taking over completely this time because they are going to get the mainstream purchasers. nintendo is going to get the kids and sony is going to be the odd man out.
kuroshi @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
right now no one needs a bluray player and if things stay as they are with the movie industry, HD-dvd will win the format wars. Bluray may become obsolete. The best tech does not always win. Betamax was better than VHS but more expensive. Bluray is better than HD-DVD but also more expensive. Doesn't take a far leap to look at history. The PS3 numbers could substantially drop if they lose this format race. Also, the original idunstry projections looked more like vidguy's numbers with the xbox having a slight lead. The last playstation was built on the masses and not a hardcore audience like the xbox or even gamecube. Witnessed by it's much lower attach rates (# of games bought by each customer). People who don't play or know alot about games gravitated towards the ps2 because it was the know standard for video games. They might lose these customers by having a much higher price. Non gamers aren't interested in spending and extra $100 for a machine. The non hardcore games still make up the majority of the marketplace and lie at the core of the playstation customer base.
Michael McGuire @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
Chance of this statistic being true: 0%
ill trooper @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
100% Speculation by August 2005
Conde @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
you guys have to remember that this is worldwide. and i bet these predictions are somewhat accurate. ps3 is obviously going to kill in east hemesphere. but over here xbox might dominate. now seeing how there are way more gamers in asia then there are in the americas i predict that 53% is a good prediction
My prediction is:
PS3= 51%
X360= 25%
Nrev= 24%
guslav @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
if we are talking worldwide, then i have to agree with #27. ps3 will trounce the others in both europe and japan. and i think ms will close the gap considerably with sony here, though i doubt they can close it completely.
mr.karmalicious @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
I say the Rev will be the best seller in Japan.
The Jeremy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
I wonder how much of an impact the Pepsi/Mountain Dew Xbox360 promotion will have on the market. If they truly are going to give away one Xbox360 every ten minutes, that's going to be big. Granted, 360 might do better perception-wise if it ships with HD-DVD, but I think Blu-Ray will destroy HD-DVD. HD-DVD is destined to be the cheaper less-feature filled version of Blu-Ray. And we all know which console is going to be the Blu-Ray champion. Speaking of Sony, I just won a PS2 yesterday through the McDonald's contest. Granted, I would've preferred the PSP. :)
charlie @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
I think these guys are seriously underestimating the capabilities of MSFT and Nintendo. Theres no way PS3 is going to have over 40% of the market. They don't have fanboys like nintendo does, and they dont have the early launch and marketing leviathan capabilities of MSFT. Additionally,the ability to play the complete library of NES, SNES, and N64 games on the Revolution should allow it to thrive amongst people looking for some sweet nostalgic action. Hell, I own and xbox and not a PS2 or gamecube, but I have no "alliances"- the only console I plan on getting for sure is the revolution, I just cannot resist the ability to play all those awesome games.
My estimation would be:
X360: 37%
PS3: 37%
Rev: 26%
leo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
my prediction:
north america: x360= 45%
ps3= 33%
revo= 22%
japan: ps3 =46%
revo=44%
x360=10%
everywhere else= ps3= 40%
x360=35%
revo=25%
kuroshi @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
there will not be 2 formats to survive. The formats are also not about features it's about storage space and expense. Blue ray has more space, but the Movie industry currently feels that there is no need for the extra space and HD-DVD is more than large enough. HD-DVD can also be produced alongside current DVD's in the same factory line. Blu ray is more expensive to produce and requires a new factory line to be built. Also there are more gamers in the US than asia. Xbox attempt to break the Japanese market is more about reputation and prestige than money. Japan may still carry much of the heart of the gaming industry, but N. America carries the purse strings.
leo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
ur claim that there are more gamers in the US than asia is as stupid as its sounds. more gamers in the US than japan u mean?? but asia? i dont think so
Conde @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
kuroshi you are one meesed up dude. there are more gamers in Asia then there are in N america, S america, and canada combined. China has alot more people then we do and alot more gamers, if japan wasnt so small theyd have alot more gamers too. and N america does not "carry the purse string".Aisa does. y do u think games and consoles are usually released there first. Sure America is a frigin huge market, but asia is just that much bigger. the average gamer in america has probably 1-10 games. In Aisa its probably around 10-30 because There are much more hardcore gamers there. so there twice as big and making probably 4x's the profit. and japan alone probably makes almost the same amount as us.
jc @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
I am by no means an expert, but from stories my gf has told me about China... the majority of people over there do not have the disposable income to facilitate such a large purchase (ie, they are poor).
I may be wrong, but I would have to guess that it goes: North & South America, Europe and then Asia for the largest to smallest market for gamers.
leo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
again, u r wrong, majority of them are not really rich, yes, but don't forget even minority in china
is a lot of people. heck,even if only 3 out of 10 people in china have ps2, its already is 300 millions, why else do you think games like world of warcraft release chinese only version?
and coming from south east asia I can say that even south east asia country, which is arguably poorer than china, most people have at least 1 console at home.
jc @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_game#Sales
I really can't see things having changed that much in the last year...
"Sales
The three largest markets for computer and video games are the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Other significant markets include Germany, South Korea, France, and Italy. China is not considered a significant market, probably because an estimated 95% of video games sold in the country are pirated."
Can you offer me proof contrary to what is listed here?
leo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
exactly. 95% of video games sold are pirated. I won't argue with that, heck maybe its more than 95% for all I care.
but don't forget that our current argument is about "more gamers in the US than asia" rather than "US is a bigger market for video games than china", and last time I checked, a gamer that use pirated software still considered as gamer. and don't forget that eventhough they are using pirated software, they still need to buy the hardware, the console it self, hence saying china play no part in the ps3-x360 war is wrong.
jc @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
When we are talking about markets, we are talking about dollars spent. When we are talking about Sony's market share in China, we are talking about dollars spent on Sony's products.
I have seen pictures of pirated playstations (hardware) in China, and pirated playstation software... Sony gets no market share for either.
I don't doubt for a minute that China has alot of gamers... likely the most in the world. And you are definately right if you are stating that point. Where I was coming in was in regards to market share though. Markets define the development of future products, as we currently see happening right now.
Right now I imagine China is a huge concern for Sony, MS & Nintendo. If they can develop a system/software that is not easily piratable, they stand to see profits raise considerably.
China not currently considered a market, but the console manufactures would love to add them. The question is will China pay full market value like the rest of the world...
leo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
to my knowledge, there is no pirated playstations2 hardware (yet?) in china or everywhere else in the world. what you probably see is a ps2 or xbox with a modified chips that enable them to play pirated games. these kind of console can be found easily in ebay. they don't need to make a pirated playstation hardware anyway, as a lot of playstation are already made in china.
I agree with your point about market share. I won't argue with that. however, the article we are discussing is talking about market share, hardware wise, which as I have mentioned earlier, asia will play a huge part in. whoever win asia over will win this console wars. Sony get their current position by dominating Asia market. Microsoft need to realize this and release games that are more appealing to asian, instead of focusing into North American market, which they have win anyway. If they do this, combined with sony’s mistake in picking blu ray as their media, x360 would win the console war with a big margin.
jc @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
I agree with what you are saying about Asia being a huge potential to make or break the console makers.
However, it is pretty much common knowledge that Microsoft and Sony are selling their consoles at a loss (at least here in North America). Their idea is to give away the razor (sell the console at a loss) and make money off the blades (games).
If you see where I am going, do you think it is possible that the Asia market could actually sink the consoles instead of making them? What I mean is if Asia isn't buying the software, but instead is pirating it, then Sony, MS and Nintendo are losing money there. The more console they sell, the more they lose. Simple economics states that if you lose more money than you make, you can only last so long before you are out of business, right?
How do you suppose the console makers tie in Asia with increased markets, and not just lost revenues?
CptMystic @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
"Predicting" numbers at this point is...pointless.
The truth is, the console with the most (highest
number of) great games will win, just like it did
this generation. This means that the console
manufacturer who recognizes that and does
everything it can to make that happen will win.
So far, I don't see Microsoft doing anything
terribly different on that front, and of course
Nintendo seems perfectly happy with their Japanese
market and has made few overatures elsewhere to
woo developers.
Asia is important, but so are NA and Europe. The
business model in China is online distribution
thanks to ignorance there about intellectual
property rights, so any console that can manage
online distribution will have a shot (assuming
the communist government doesn't suddenly decide
that games are a decadent Western evil and ban
them entirely).
Conde: show me sales numbers to back those claims.
leo: there are more *console* gamers in NA than
elsewhere, including Asia. The fastest growing
market in Asia is South Korea, but it's largely
PC games so far. I do agree with your number
predictions though!
kuroshi: I'd say current-gen has proven that
tech doesn't matter so much. The XBox is a more
capable hardware platform than the PS2, but the
PS2 stayed king of the hill regardless.
The Jeremy: Do you think the giveaway will be
bigger than the $600M that Microsoft spent on
marketing up front for the current gen? I
doubt it.
jg: Yeah, right. Supporting evidence?
guslav: What leads you to assume the Revolution
will have a lower price point?
sam: Sony succeeded this gen despite the fact
that they overpromised, and that you didn't buy
one. Your wishes alone won't make them fail
this time either, and no matter what a single
game is not going to make or break ANY console.
word: People underestimate Nintendo because of
*recent* history??? Think again. They have
not dominated in living rule consoles since
before they got their butts kicked by the Sega
Genesis. Now it looks like they're starting to
get their butts kicks in their remaining niche,
handhelds. Save your Nintendo memorabilia, it
may be worth a lot of money 6-8 years from
now!
And finally, 1984: Whatever you're smoking, lay
off that stuff, it'll rot your brain!
mike @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
Remember this is all based on NOT KNOWING ANYTHING about the Revolution.
Analysts are so cute.
vaylen @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
I work on console games and CptMystic is 100% right. All of his points were right on the money. In a recent survey in Japan, of people who were only going to buy one console, 60% of them said they were only going to buy the PS3 and 2% said they were going to only buy the Xbox360. When Microsoft is basically forfeiting the only Asian market that buys consoles (Japan), even if it is only 20% of the worldwide market, they cannot win this war. Maybe it's unfair that they lose because of nationalism on the Japanese people's part, but that's the way it is, you can say it's unfair (and it is), but it isn't going to change. Microsoft will have to be happy with another 2nd place finish and take solace in the fact that they didn't get their butts kicked as bad as the last time around. That's as good as it's going to get for them.
vidGuy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:41PM
"What leads you to assume the Revolution
will have a lower price point?"
Speculation, at this point, but judging by Nintendo's target market, history.
(May 25, 2005)
http://cube.ign.com/articles/522/522559p3.html
"Q: How much will Revolution cost?
A:: An exact price is unknown. But Nintendo is aggressively seeking to deliver a small, quiet and affordable console. It seems likely that the unit will debut at the sub-$200 mark and possibly cheaper if all goes as planned. "
"no matter what a single
game is not going to make or break ANY console."
I'd like to agree with you on this, but I challenge you to convince someone to buy an original XBOX without mentioning the word "Halo". As with RE4, LoZ:TP will sell GCs, especially now that Nintendo has its console under $100.
And, I think tech will sell a console if the PS3 keeps the Blu-Ray. With millions of consoles out there, the Blu-Ray will be largely available and would likely win the format war. Consumers would see a stand-alone player at $800+ and the PS3 at roughly $400 and make the logical choice.
'Course, if Sony pulls this feature they'll be eating a lot of profits, not to mention crow from all of their previous marketing.