DVD format matters: Xbox 360 VS. PS3
by Vladimir Cole 
{ Oct 28th 2005 at 7:28PM }
In report dated October 25, equity research analysts Jason Kraft and Chris Kwak of Susquehanna Financial Group look at the Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD debate in the context of the industry's major shifts to new formats. They write, "We believe DVD standards could be the defining issue for next-gen consoles."
Here's how they see it playing out:
-
First, they take the hardware-centric position that console transitions, in our view, embody transformations in storage media. In other words, consoles are defined less by their software and more by their fundamental constraint: how much content developers can squeeze into a game.
-
In reflecting on the Sony PlayStation vs. the Nintendo 64, they note that the PS used a CD format with a 650 MB capacity, whereas Nintendo delivered a superior user experience (namely, no load times) via cartridge format. Unfortunately, cartridges had a maximum storage capacity of around 128 MB and were significantly more expensive to produce.
-
In the current generation, all three consoles use some form of DVD, neutralizing differentiation based on content factors and increasing the importance of other features and factors such as timing, platform continuity, and exclusive games. The PS2 grabbed market share early by launching early, and spoke to the now-mature former Nintendo fanbase with Grand Theft Auto III. Microsofts Xbox lost out by launching last, but did well with Halo.
-
In the console war now underway, the authors believe that were about to see a format war thats more in line with the battle between the PS1 and the N64. They write, Notwithstanding the many advantages of Blu-ray, we anticipate the Blu-ray Disc could disadvantage Sony as the price of Blu-ray Disc games and movies are expected to be higher than HD-DVD games and movies.
-
However, if Blu-ray is launched successfully, and if games somehow start regularly clocking in at 30GB and 40GB (far beyond the capacity of a DVD drive), then developers may be forced to dumb down PS3 content for the Xbox 360.
-
Furthemore, if consumers face the choice of an $800 Blu-ray Disc player or a $500 PS3 with Blu-ray when PS3 launches some portion may opt for the PS3, even if theyre not gamers, and this could expand the market for games.
The report has one glaring omission: the Xbox 360 hard drive. With third party hard drives that could be measured in hundreds of gigabytes or even terabytes and with online distribution of game content to those hard drives, this whole format war might be a red herring.
[Sorry, no link to the report. Its not public.]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
The1 @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Only time will tell. If you need to buy a new TV or Monitor; I do not see how Blu-Ray will win in the end.
millsy1990 @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Well I like the points they've given, especially the $500 PS3 vs. $800 Blu-ray player.
Not Impressed (Dmitri) @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Wow. Great work joystiq! You go from copied news from sites such as IGN and GameSpot.
Then when you lose counts you turn in the rumour mill.
Now it is starting to be come console wars.
What next? "Mario vs. Master Chief"?
Qubit @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I like the Blu-ray because of the storage. As for "copy protection", the only true copy protected disc is a blank disc ^^.
I'm not sure how much more it will cost than HD-DVD. Is the ratio of price:storage going to be the same?
Also, it is not necessary to "dumb down" a game when porting from PS3 to Xbox to save space; you can have a game on a series of discs(like Final Fantasy VII on the PS).
zenprism @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Not to mention that any system with a hard drive can surpass the single disc capacity. Look at Halo 2+Map Pack. There's the game disc, then there's the data of the added multiplayer levels on the hard drive.
So for X360 (or PS3), you're really only limited by the amount of downloadable content available (for purchase...), which can expand a game's content exponentially.
SK07 @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Something I find funny about this is the fact that if more people do buy this as only a blu-ray player(not a game machine) than Sony will be losing a lot of money because of no game sales to make up with, especially considering how much of a loss they may need to make per console.
OTAM @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
The answer to all this is multi disc dvd sets.
And don't give me that crap about it not being "convienient" or "nobody wants to switch the disc". Sorry pal,but if you can't even switch a fucking disc out of the console I suggest you hang yourself with the powercord.
Qubit @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
>>3
Can you prove this news is directly copied? I can't even find where IGN or GameSpot mentioned this report.
Besides, Joystiq stated their source, "In report dated October 25, equity research analysts Jason Kraft and Chris Kwak of Susquehanna Financial Group".
As for the rest of your comment, it makes no sense... "Then when you lose counts you turn in the rumour mill." ... ... ...
nandeyanen?
なんでやねん？
>>6
I agree ^^
Not Impressed (Dmitri) @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Lol @ Halo 3 for using a disc for single player and a disc for multiplayer. They are already running out of space. How can they expect the games to become any more "next-gen"?
Tim @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
The thing is, the only way Sony can sell the PS3 as a Blu-Ray player, they'll have to be totally gouging you on the real BluRay players.
There's no way that it could be more expensive to produce the player. I admit I bought PS2 with DVDs in mind, but only because I was looking for a game system at the same time.
Not Impressed (Dmitri) @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Qubit I did not say that THIS was copied from Gamespot or IGN. If you didn't notice, I put all of my ideas into different sections. Or "paragraphs", son.
b @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Or you can compress a game. RE2 for 64 was compressed to a 20th of what it originally meassured (from 1300 MB on 2 CDs to a 64 MB cartridge).
Also, that image is dated. Blu-ray discs don't need the cartridges anymore. And get your facts right: PS3's BD holds 27 GB on one layer, and 54 on two, not 25 and 50.
I think Sony should tell developers "All games must have content above 15 GB to be released on PS3" just as Microsoft told them to optimize ALL the games for Hi Definition. That way we get a lot of content. How would they fill it up? Well, if it's not enough, then maybe they should start adding some media to the cartridges (like "The making of the game", soundtracks, much more extra content, etc.)
Todd @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
And I get edited?!?!?!
Oh, on topic, what are the chances that we'll be seeing 30 to 40 gig games anytime soon? I mean ones that don't have a ton of video cut scenes to fill up the extra space. Will it really be necessary? Given the choice between a $500 PS3 and a $800 blu-ray player I wonder how many people will buy neither until a clear format winner is chosen. DVD's were a sure thing when the PS2 came out. Now if both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray hang in there then there will be players that come out that can play both. If that happens then the PS3 won't be as attractive as a video player.
lostreign @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
not that this is really relevant but the dvd-9 and the dvd 12 cm pics seem to be reversed. sorry... just an observation
b @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
OTAM:
Hackers would tell you "Do you like to stand up to change the channel, or do you prefer the remote control?"
Don't you think microsoft would have been smarter to launch a bigger hard drive? After all, that's one of their innovations in this "console war". At least that way they can say: "With Sony, you stick the disc each time you play. With us, you stick the discs once."
That would be awesome. Too bad that the hard drive leap (and content ripping) for all three consoles is taking too long.
Qubit @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
>>11
"paragraphs" correctly quoted. They really are sentences arn't they. Anyways, what you say would make more sence, since I couldn't find anything to be copied.^^
>>3
Maybe I misunderstood.
I can't tell whether you are being sarcastic or not, nor what the point of your comment was... Could you rephrase your entire comment so I can understand?
OMGWTFBBQ @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
This report is retarded because it tries to compare this with the ps1 and N64 format wars. Not true since even though the Blu ray disc is superior there is no harm in putting a game on 2 DVD 9 discs. One swap in a 40 hours game won't really cause that many problems.
b @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
But OMGWTFBBQ, what about the rumored swapping for Halo 3 between single player and multi-player? "I'm playing the campaign, but I want to play online now, so I'll switch the discs now... I'm tired now, i'll change to single player; oh wait, the disc... fuck." That would suck.
OTAM @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
b,there's a difference between the remote and the discs. If I was channel surfing then i'd prefer the remote,but if I knew what program I wanted to watch it would not bother me to just stand up and put on the channel and sit back down and watch the show.
Same with the discs,I put the disc in once and i'm done.
elmer @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Think of it like this:
512 MB of RAM for each system.
Roughly 8GB on a standard DVD. Assuming you fill the game up with non replicated data (which is likely this time as texture and geometry assets are going to grow far far far more in footprint than engines, game rules etc. - especially with HD) that ends up as roughly 16 levels for a game.
People won't stand for that. And people won't stand for repeated textures and buildings forever.
Furthermore, what did we learn this generation? Continuous sandbox type city wide games with data streaming sell.
Data streaming People! as in, you not only don't change discs, you never see a load screen.
Now when you mention the hard drive aspect consider this:
Say blue ray games start reaching the 50GB level; you'd get a whopping 4 games on one 200GB hard drive. And then how long would it take to download (that is what we're talking about right? digital distribution?). By continuously maxing out a 512Kb/sec standard ADSL connection it would take 35 hours to download a disc filling game. Not a blueray disc, a standard 8GB disc. 50 GB would take 9 days.
And don't talk about compression, they're already using it. Devs have already said they're struglling with 360 discs at the start of the generation, what then will happen later?
xor @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Comment #12 ...
The RE2 cartridge was 512, one of the two biggest game to be released on N64. Did you weight the game with Mario 64 ? There is a big difference because of the space capacity. So RE2 on N64 isn't a 64Meg cartridge. But there is a +50% compression factor anyway !
Sino @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
People talk about Hard Drive will replace optical disks, but really as a gamer I care about collecting games. I want a physical copy with box art. Just think about when someone give you a game as a present and they say you can download it to your computer, I don't want that.
b @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Alright OTAM, but you have to admit that you'd love to play a 54 GB RPG (Lost Odyssey? Blue Dragon? 99 Nights? Elder Scrolls? imagine if they were that size) on Xbox. I don't think any Xbox game will reach 7 Discs. It's also doubtful that most developers will use the 54 GB on a blu-ray, but what I don't doubt, is at least sony delivering 54 GB games (or even bigger). Imagine in that size: God of War, Shadow of Colossus, Killzone, Lair, Final Fantasy and Hideo Kojima's games (he's known to take full advantage of every system).
Some developers could, if they wanna fill the disc, make a huge game, where half of the disc is made of CGI. That would creat some pretty immersive games (without discounting the gameplay factor of course).
Not Impressed (Dmitri) @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
elmer that is the exact point I have been trying to make with the 360 compression issues. But no one seems to listen.
Everyone looks at the graphics and says "Now that is next-gen!"
But how can it be next-gen when you will eventually need 2 discs just to play the offline of a third party game that only needs 1 disc on the PS3?
Not Impressed (Dmitri) @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Lol @ Peter Moore for talking shit about the PS3 at X05 for using pre-rendered videos.
Yet then, Microsoft shows a pre-rendered video of Condemned at X05 and says "That is how the game will look".
Hipocryte, much?
b @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
xor:
You are wrong. It wasn't "512 Megabytes", it was 512 Megabits, which is 64 Megabytes (the biggest cartridge back then; as opposed to the unexistant 128 Megabyte cartridge this article mentions. That limit was barely reached by the DS, and already surpassed it by 4 times if I remember well, which is not even the amount of info on a CD).
I read the article where the geniuses at capcom managed to make a programming language that compresses the info 20 times. If that would have been "discovered" before RE2 came out by some companies like square and konami, they wouldn't have left nintendo for sony in the N64 era.
Not Impressed (Dmitri) @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
b - only in a perfect world would devs do that. But too many devs whine and complain.
They complain that the rev is too different.
They complain that the PS3 costs too much to dev for (yet sony is looking for small dev teams)
And they complain that the 360 doesnt have enough disk space.
Overall, I have a feeling alot of the 360 devs will see what companies like SOE, SCEA, SCEE, Epic and EA are doing with the PS3. And will want in on the action.
gamer1 @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I agree that people may purchase a PS3 for a Blu-Ray player, just as people purchased a PS2 for a DVD player, but what many people dont into consideration is the target audience for Blu-Ray players.
The reason people purchased DVD players were for its superior visual quality in comparison to VHS. The difference in DVD quality could be seen on standard televisions, and even more so with digital quality on HDTV sets. However, the target audience for people looking to purchase Blu-Ray players will be owners of HDTV sets with 1080p resolution. Only at this resolution will consumers be able to take advantage of the superior visual quality that Blu-Ray has to offer for movies.
Currently, there are very few HDTV products with 1080p resolution available to the consumer and the ones that are available are very expensive.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1749523,00.asp
If Sony is planning on capitalizing on the demand of Blu-Ray players this time around as they did with the DVD player, they should take into account the much smaller target audience. The standard TV and 1080i HDTV just isn't going to cut it this time.
Falsoman @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Xor. I think that you are confusing sizes. Resident Evil 2 was in a 512 Megabit cart, so if you want to compare it you have to dividet by 8... then is actually a 64megabyte game. This makes the game really compressed. I don't actually know how big was resident evil for PS1, so i can't tell, but as #12 has comented i asume it was a 2 disk game. And 2 disk was up to 1300MB compared to the 64MB (512Mb) in the nintentdo cartrige that is a lot of difference.
b @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Dmitri,
I thought Epic was a 360 exclusive developer... but anyway, as I said dude, only few will take that huge amount of space, and specified that sony studios, final fantasy games (notable for being huge) and hideo kojima's games (notable for exploiting every unit of potential in a system) will most likely be the only ones. And if we're lucky, some other PS3 exclusives. Oh well.
Ironically, I was bent on not getting a 360, but someone I know is going to the states the 23rd of november and asked me if I wanted something, so WTF, I asked for a 360, since it's the week of launch so... I hope I don't end up disappointed. I'm definitely getting a Ps3 and a revo anyway.
JPRacer @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I find it funny how some of you associate game size (in term of Bytes, not length) and game quality.
Not Impressed (Dmitri) @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
b - you are too wrong - sorry. Epic makes PC games aswell as PS3 games. Unreal Tournament 2007 will be on PS3 / 360 / PC. Aswell as other games.
I have no idea where the hell you got that idea from.
I am pretty much on the same boat as you. I just bought my PSP so I have nothing I need for xmas. So my parents keep asking what I want. I can either get some games / UMDs or a 360. But I will definitly get a PS3.
Sad thing about the 360 is, I will probably go for the PSP games and movies instead. 1.5 just doesnt look that great to me.
Not Impressed (Dmitri) @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
And good luck on getting a next/current-gen console on the week of launch without pre-ordering it.
The1 @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
31. Posted Oct 28, 2005, 10:28 PM ET by Not Impressed (Dmitri)
b - you are too wrong - sorry. Epic makes PC games aswell as PS3 games. Unreal Tournament 2007 will be on PS3 / 360 / PC. Aswell as other games.
I have no idea where the hell you got that idea from.
I am pretty much on the same boat as you. I just bought my PSP so I have nothing I need for xmas. So my parents keep asking what I want. I can either get some games / UMDs or a 360. But I will definitly get a PS3.
Sad thing about the 360 is, I will probably go for the PSP games and movies instead. 1.5 just doesnt look that great to me.
You are a TRUE FANYBOY. The PSP is not what is was hyped to be. I have one and never use it. There is only one game for it. The sad this is that you believe what ever people say; just buy you saying 1.5. The X360 is great.
I will get all three next gen consoles, the problem is that I know when the PS3 comes out there will not be that many cool games. However SONY has built up the hype and it works everytime. I cannot wait to see SONY first game on the PS3, will you call it PS .5?
b @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Dmitri,
I know Epic makes PC games. I was talking about the console market. I simply thought that this time around, Epic was sort of a 2nd party developer for 360. Why? Gears of War. And I'm not much of a First Person Shooter fan anyway, so add that to my ignorance on Epic. I wasn't even being sarcastic or anything, I was just mentioning that I didn't know they were gonna develop for PS3, and that it's good that you informed me on that.
Anyway, it's not the first time I buy a console on launch week without preordering. I'm almost sure it'll work out. If not, it doesn't matter. I'm not dying for a 360. I agree with you on the fact that it's the mediocre console. It's just the fact that it's tempting to get a "Next gen... sort of" console the week it launches. My second option is a Nintendo DS with Mario Kart in case I don't get a 360.
Not Impressed (Dmitri) @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
b - I would go for the DS. Lol. *sigh on M$*. Me telling you to get a handheld full of 2D games instead of a next-gen console. Shame on Microsoft.
Personally, I sold my DS for my PSP. But that was for personal reasons. It is a very good handheld and I think anyone who picks it up will have a good time with it. I especially had fun with Castlevania and Advance Wars.
And, yea, about Epic. Sony showed Unreal Tournament 2007 running on Cell at the E3 Press Conference. Just incase you may have missed it.
Chris @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
While I think the format war may be a factor later on, here are some things to remember.
First gen PS3 games will not use the full disc. Development time on such a game will be too long, and developers have already complained that they don't have final dev kits yet, so they're not gonna have enough time to get those discs filled early on.
By the time the Rev & PS3 come out, X360 should be into it's second Gen of games, which will look better. Also, at one point M$ mentioned that HD-DVD support would be added later to the X360. Not exactly sure how they plan to do this, but it's something.
Also, the current listed max size for Blu-Ray & HD-DVD discs are tests. The actual max size for the two formats right now are roughly similar. Of course, with a format war going on, that may be hype I've bought into and not researched thoroughly enough.
What I'm saying is, the format war is not going to be a big deal until later into the consoles life, and by that time, one system may have enough momentum to force a decision in the format war.
SilverScyth @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Yeah, your breach of intelligence makes it reasonable.
There are so many flaws with what you have posted... I'll start with a few.
1. Condemned was not pre-rendered nor ever has been. Go to www.xboxyde.com to see gameplay footage. You just can't accept that the 360 will have kick-arse graphics.
2. The Halo 3 "information and script" was debunked. It's very likely that it will be on one disc. Considering the largest games these days are 3 Gb unless you have lazy developers sticking a whole crapload of FMV in...
3. UT 2007 at the Sony PC was not running of the cell. It was running off of an SLi setup. If you weren't such a fanboy ("OMG!!! TEH CELL!!!) you would know this.
In fact, Sony has been very tight on vids of their games. We've only gotten trailers and cutscenes so far. I'll believe the magic once we see vids of people actively playing a game with functional AI, dynamic sound, physics, etc. Until then, Sony is full of crap.
And Dimitri, you are the most idiotic fanboy ever to cross the comments section of this blog.
SilverScyth @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I just watched it. It's not pre-rendered. Please be rational.
http://www.xboxyde.com/leech_1861_en.html
^gameplay video.
Watership @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
>>SilverScyth god dammit. LOOK AT THE X05 >>CONDEMNED VIDEO FOR CHRIST SAKE.
Dmitri, your comments are based on rhetoric and rumour and always REEK of FANBOYISM. I don't care about your arguement about getting a revolution, you encapsulate what's bad about blog message boards.
The Management @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Don't worry about Dmitri folks, he's earned himself a ban. Please keep it on topic, watch the language, and avoid personal attacks.
ZeroCorpse @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Thank you!
That "Xbox 1.5" crud was really getting on my nerves.
Edmund @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I think this is a red herring. By the time Blue Ray and HDDVD discs hit the market I won't be interested in buying either of them. The only formats I care about are AAC and MPEG4. Pretty soon we'll all be buyng our movies online and none of this will matter. So who cares who has blue-ray and who has HDDVD? Why would I EVER want to buy a movie in one of those formats?
SilverScyth @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
*Celebrates*
Back to intelligent discourse.
I think Blu-Ray is really flawed because you cannot extract the contents to your HDD.
Smiling Assassin @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
If anyone makes a game that is 30 to 40 gigs you can expect said game to be released sometime in 2011. Look at the beautiful Half Life 2 (If you can spend $2500 on the computer that plays it at full potential). Thata game comes in at well under 10 gigs and kicks the ass of anything out there right now. I am personally not a fan but it is beautiful. I think that people assume that making a game beautiful and enjoyable takes some remarkable amount of coding. Think again!!! You will not see a game in the next three years that would fill 25 gigs of space unless you just need to see a whole lot of video or pre rendered movie like bullshit. Give me gameplay and keep the discs cheap. Please don't comment on this post unless you personally have written a program over 15gigs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
jason @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I find it funny as hell when you people come in here and say that the PS3 has bla bla bla and can hold bla bla bla when none of you suckers have ever seen a PS3 game in real life, there is no final specs, no final design and there has never been a 50 GB game in the history of video games.
TyreDurgan @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
#6: Exactly what I was thinking, these consoles make money from periphreal and game sales, not from the inital purchase.
#14: You are right, they are switched.
James @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
#12 b,
Since you think you're all knowledgeable about everything. Let me prove wrong once again.
"And get your facts right: PS3's BD holds 27 GB on one layer, and 54 on two, not 25 and 50."
From the Blu-ray Disc Association, (http://www.bluraydisc.com/general_information/Section-13564/Index.html), in the first paragraph reads "Blu-ray Disc provides 67% more capacity per layer at 25 GB for a single layer and 50GB for a double layer disc."
Why don't you shut your pie-hole because everyone is tired of your badmouthing Xbox360 or anything other than PS3? You think you know things, but in reality, you know JACK!
ulis @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO MATTERS
the Xbox 360 wont have next generation Optical Format, so doesnt matters.
by the way the big advantage with the blue-ray, is not that it will filled with content, all games on dvd not use all the 8 gig capacity of the disc, really are very few that use more than 80 %, the big advantage of the blue-ray its the tranfers data rate, more bits per second that todays DVD (less load times)
Bo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
46 ulis -
Here are the specifications:
Blu-ray 1x sequential transfer at 36mbps (4.5MB), 2x @ 72mbps (6.75MB). Non-sequential access will drastically decrease the transfer speed in videogames.
DVD 16x (360 DVD drive) sequential transfer speed at 22,160,000 KB(21.13MB)
Giving the benefit that the PS3 will have a Blu-ray drive @ 2x, its still 6.75MB/s compared to DVD 16x 21.13MB/s transfer rate.
Now it's possible for a Blu-ray drive to be 12x @ 400Mb/s (50MB/s), but I HIGHLY DOUBT Sony will have that kind of drive in the PS3!
I converted mega'bit' to (mega'byte') in case you non-techie don't know the difference...