Xbox 360 prediction: lines, lines, lines
by Vladimir Cole 
{ Nov 2nd 2005 at 11:47PM }
It's not looking pretty for Xbox 360 availability for November 22nd, if various indications
are to be believed.
First, we've got readers writing to tell us that store managers at Electronics Boutiques are calling them to bump them off of the first allocation of Xbox 360 pre-orders. Writes one reader:
This is something you might want to follow up on, but I just received a phone call from the EBGames store manager (Gainesville, FL) saying that the launch stock they were allocated is a LOT less than what they are now getting. Although I reserved with them over 6 months ago - even before there was an official MSRP - I was told that I didn't make the list and would be on the second shipment.
Have you pre-ordered an Xbox 360? Call the merchant you pre-ordered from and let us know if you'll be getting your Xbox 360 on time.
Second, analysts project low availability. Research analyst Mike Wallace predicted that only 1.5 million Xbox 360s will ship this calendar year, with less than a third of those (400,000) available in the United States on launch day, according to 1Up.com.
Third, it's human nature to desire objects only after they appear to be scarce. Marketing campaigns can certainly stir up demand for a product, and so far it looks like Microsoft's been doing a great job at that. But nothing makes for a holiday season toy frenzy like simple utterance of the dreaded word "shortage." We've covered this before.
At this point, signs indicate that the Xbox 360 is going to be damned hard to obtain this holiday season. We'd love to be wrong on this, so here's hoping.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Blurrz @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Whatever.
MikeUF @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
If I get bumped I am going to be incredibly upset. I preordered mine a week after E3 and have ordered a ton of peripherals. EB should not be allwed to bump preorders, that seems like a breach of verbal contract to me.
nodnetni @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
All this is doing is making me want to sell mine even more.
Mike @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
its about time working at wal-mart comes in handy.
My manager is going to sell me as many 360s as I want before the customers.
I can only afford 4 with my credit card and cash so thats what im getting. 1 for me, and the other 3 on ebay for $1000 each. Yes, some rich joe blow is gonna pay that to me so he doesnt disapoint little jimmy this christmas.
darryl @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
"Third, it’s human nature to desire objects only after they appear to be scarce."
Exactly. Imagine that. Microsoft has always been the top dog in the sleaze dept. In their desperation to be first, it is also possible they will suffer from a "premature release".
Eeew, sticky.
dynamius @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
i'm gonna wait for the games i want first before i get mine.
or if i can make myself holdoff til the first price drop...
OSUblake @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Go to ebay and check out what 360s are going for!!! Sellers that have a zero ranking are getting mad bids for the 360! I pre-ordered one, but I'm not going to keep it. Capitalism first!!!
vc @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
"Not sure if you are getting this information yet, but the EBGames where I reserved my Xbox 360 (Edgewood Retail Dist. - Atlanta, GA) called me this afternoon to let me know that I would be able to pick up my unit at Midnight on the 21st! Now I lucked out, becuase I placed my pre-order on Sept. 19th, 2005, at an EB loaction that had just recently opened." (from a tip sent to us.)
Aaron @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I own all of the current consoles and handhelds out. I hardly play my XBOX. If it was a new Nintendo or Sony product I would be in line grabbing one... but XBOX 360? Na...
Einhanderkiller @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I won't be waiting in line.
I'll just be playing my PC and PS2 games and wait until mid 2007 when all the consoles come out and the prices go down. I'm not going to shell out [$400?] for a PS3 when i'll just have it sitting there waiting for Metal Gear Solid 4.
Tamo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Looks like the PS2 "shortage" has inspired the Xbox 360 "shortage". The more I think about it, the more it reminds me of the South Park episode where Cartman has his own theme park and accidentally makes it a sucess by not letting in people for a while. Microsoft CAN produce more but why do that when you can create a larger demand and sell more in the long run?
OTAM @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Man,this is a serious bummer.
I had one ordered back in June and I am going to be mighty pissed if they don't have one in stock for me on launch day.
I mean,there's nothing I can really do but this is some serious disappointment.
Leitzge @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Why is everyone so hyped about the 360? Sure, it's coming out in a month or something, but the PS3 is going to crush the 360, simply put. I am more than happy to wait a few months for the PS3. The only thing that bothers me about the PS2/3 is that there is no really easy to use online service, like with the 360.
Matt @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
"Microsoft CAN produce more"
Says who? Joe Momma? I think you need to cite a source before I can believe you.
vidGuy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
If I were Microsoft, I would make it appear that the supply was scarce around launch, to make everyone want one. Then flood supply the first/second week of December so that EVERYONE can have one dominate his living room coming Christmas day.
Oh, wait, that's what they're doing.
My GameStop manager told me that they only have 4 preorders, from a town of 20,000. They're begging everyone that comes in the door to order one, but no ones buying. 'Course, I guess it's not that way many other places.
vidGuy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Matt:
How 'bout some numbers speculation Joystiq reported on not a month ago?
http://xbox360.joystiq.com/entry/1234000777062672/
Matt @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
"How 'bout some numbers speculation Joystiq reported on not a month ago?"
Where in that article does it state that Microsoft had more capacity for the thing? There are only so many fabs in the world that can make the chips necessary.
vidGuy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
" The Xbox 360 figure is based on an assumption that Microsoft began production of the console in mid-august, at a rate of 100,000 per week, and later increasing production rates to 150,000 a week – which is to say, of all 2.5 million console estimated to be produced, every single one of them will be sold."
Versus the 1.5 million predicted here. It's Microsoft... I think they can produce more than 400,000 for the US within the end of the year.
Plus, does it make sense to hold supply down until AFTER the holiday season? If they'd launch in September I could see them restricting supply for a few months, but not now that we are only several weeks away from the biggest selling days/weeks of the year.
HyperBear @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I cant believe all this Bullshit Im hearing about, " oh if they bump me back, then hell with 360 ill just wait for PS3 " and shit like that. People its called high-demand. A lot of people are trying to get the next-gen console first. And also think of this. The Contests. I mean you americans have that every Ten-Minutes contest and that equaled out to be giving away 10,000 systems just from that( and that its self is just a days work of production). And we canadians have the same contest called "Be First to Play " where they r giving away a 360 an hour and that equals to 960 systems there ( In which I won 1 and will be getting it next Friday ( Novemeber 11th) ) . So if you get called back to shipment 2, which actually ships on the week before Christmas, just keep playing other Xbox or PS games until u get it in ur house. LIGHTEN UP PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!
PaleGringo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I visited the GameStop (Clovis, CA) that I pre-ordered mone on starting way back near E3. I was the first person to get that PIF on my receipt for that particular location, and initially I was told I'd be second shipment.
WTF?
They said that the way it worked was that the 360 reservations went to the first ones to drop $50 on it, even it wasn't paid off. Basically, it was going to be a "hold" on the product for 48 hours and then be offered to the next person on the list, and so on until my name came up (and I wasn't in the first 50) :-
More recently, the store's changed with this "VIP" policy that you may be aware of. Now, I'm the first page in the binder for the first shipment. I'm still leary about it and I didn't believe it when I saw it for the first time about a month ago any more than I did on Monday of this week when I saw it again.
I was also told that accessories and games would be available the week prior, so I'm planning another trip on the 18th to make proof positive of what I've been told.
DoubleThink @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I dunno. I still say I can walk into BestBuy the day of release and pick one up that morning without have to pre-purchase.
Without a doubt they'll sell out the first day, but a shipment will arrive the following week.
tack @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
To me it seems that there's a bigger supply of 360's than what was available on the original xbox launch.
I walked in to my local KB and picked one up an xbox on launch day. No Line, no pre-order, no bundle.
I no longer pre order any systems or games. Got the DS and the PSP the same way on release day.
It's all hype.
Brymo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Well I was going to report this, but i forgot.
I was at my local EB and i asked "So will i get it on Midnight?" He said "we are getting a lot less systems than we thought" - Last week it was 90 systems, it is now down to 49.
I then asked (but knew what number I was, 32) where i stood in line. They said that i would not be bumped, where ever I was in line before, I am now. But they looked me up anyways, and it seems I will be fine for Midnight.
So, each store is getting less than 50 systems, compaired to the 90 or so they were getting.
I will call tomorrow and get a update.
ledorky @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
NEVER pre-order from a games specialty shop.
Just go to Target/Walmart/best buy/Circuit City on opening hour and get yourself one.
Scott @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Hick Towns = easy to get systems at launch
Big City = sold out all over for a month
OTAM @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I wish it was that easy ledorky.
I live in like east bumblefuck Pennsylvania. My damn town doesnt even have a fire/police dept or a hospital that's how small it is,yet when I drive up the highway to the nearest Target or anything it's a joke trying to find a new console when it comes out. I've had to preorder all my consoles to even get one. The last one I remember having a hard time with was the N64 which I had to eventually preorder from Toys R Us in the end just to get one at launch.
Zachary @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I don't buy it, this is just like the pizza deliver man saying it will be 45 minutes, then showing up in 20 to impress you. Same deal, everyone thinks they won't get a 360, then you find one and you feel that much more special cause you weren't supposed to be able to find one.
groovy guy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I know this is propably a moot point but aparently there will be lots of core systems available. Nobody is pre-ordering those at my EB. So if you are desperate then maybe you can get a core system?
Ahhhhhh who am I kiddin, wait for the better package!
KrAzYmAn @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I called my local gamestop last week and they said that M$ has not told them how many they would recieve yet, and that they would call this week to tell me if I got first shipment. (I still have not been called) As long as it will be their around 5:00pm on Nov. 22nd for me is fine. They also said that I was half way down the list, and I reserved back in the beggining of July. They also said that if I wanted a controll that I would have to reserve one... Odd..
Mike @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
The reason that EB Games stores are getting cut back on the amount of XBox's that they are getting is so that their newfound home office, aka gamestop corporate, can try and make the EB Games name look like crap. At our store we were originally promised 43 for launch day, that number has now been cut to 21.... And yet the GameStop in the same mall as us has 131 preorders.... and how many coming in first day?
131.... seems like GameStop will stop at nothing to smear its own employees and name....
The1 @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I am getting two on launch and I bet I will go to Target and get another with no problem.
Andy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I think that the "Shortage" is a conveinient marketing ploy. Nevertheless; I reserved my 360 back in May, and have just recently paid it and my 3 games off. Since I was the first pre-order at my EB and have the receipt to prove it, I should have no problem grabbing mine at Midnight on the 21st/22nd.
jp @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
take a look at this! this is only marketing. they're are gonna be shortage but just to make it more popular; like the PS2.
http://games.slashdot.org/games/05/11/03/0026241.shtml
Mik @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I think its more of an issue with "EB Games" I would NEVER pre-order anything from EB, they can't even keep track of game orders nor get them on time, I wouldn't dare preorder a console from them, plus the fact that they add on a bunch of crap worth $50 and make you pay $100 on top of the mfr's pricing and call it a "super-bundle"
Not gonna work @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Lets assume for a second that MS is doing this "shortage" thing on purpose to increase sales. Sure, its not known for sure that it is whats going on, but lets face it, theres something fishy going on.
With the PS2's launch (and to an extent, the DS last year) the shortages were caused by incredible demand and great sales, and everyone knew that.
With the 360, everyone knows that its gonna be short because MS didn't ship enough. Yes there is large demand, but I don't think they are going to get this "furby-style" rush and fanaticism simply because everyone knows its their fault. Not because of the fact everyone and their mother wants one, but because that M$ dropped the ball. Big difference in swaying the feelings of the lesser-informed.
Necrophiliac @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I had preordered mine July 12 before there was a price and before it was known there were two versions. I specifically asked when I preordered it if I would get one at launch because I would have preordered one elsewhere if I wouldnt. They assured me I would and now they tell me that they will only be getting 21 systems in and that I would not be getting one at launch (I'm number 30). Even if there werent shortages I think EB willfully and knowingly sold more preorders than they realistically believed they would be getting just to collect interest on the tens of thousands of $50+ deposits.
By putting a preorder deposit on something it is supposed to be both a commitiment by the consumer to return to purchace the product in full once it is released, as well as a commitment by the merchant to provide the consumer with the product at the time it was promised. Being "guarenteed" to get one at launch if you let them hold on to $50+ of your hard earned money for five or six months means nothing if there is nothing to back up that guarntee. Additionally, I am hearing that those rediculous bundle preorders will be filled on time. The thing is that the bundles weren't offered until like 2 months after I preordered my console. These guys are a bunch of crooks.
ajservo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Hey Walmart dude...
Hedge your bets and put the other 3 X360's on layaway. At least if the shortage turns out not to be the case, you'll be able to return the other three.
I can tell you from personal experience with Nintendo DS and PSP's, the x360's aren't going to be worth as much as you might think on ebay. There's going to be a 1000 other people just like you doing the exact same thing. Buy one and get another to ebay. If there really is a shortage, it'll be artifically created by ebay users.
nightshadow @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
or hows this wallmart dude......
stand outside a toys r us or any other console selling store.....when people walk out empty handed.....you make them an offer....ive seen this done.....very effective...adults dont have time to didle around....just get it and be done with it.....especially when comes to christmas shopping.....otherwise little jimmy is gonna cry if he dont get what he wants....
Andy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Wal-Mart employees are the spawn of the devil. People like this guy proves it. I hate Wal-mart employees! They are so freaking rude when you try to shop there because they know that they have a store that is more conveinent and cheaper than anywhere else. I hope somone else comes around with better customer service and puts them out of business.
Shayne @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
My EB (Edmonton, Canada (Clairview Location)) went from 30 to 80, and the first 20 get to participate in a pre-launch party (im #13).
I think it really depends on location and throughput.
Ive asked many of the EBs in the city and one store is even getting a confirmed 120.
funkonaut @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Am I the only one that sees "Dreamcast" written all over the 360? It's 1999 all over again.
Art Guy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Makes me glad I was able to order my "special edition" premium Xbox 360 through work. I was told we are getting them either on or before the 22nd. It was a great deal, plus we are getting a bunch of extras, although I wonder what the faceplate is going to look like.
PickyPants @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
The shortage is faked.
I have purchased every one of my systems on the day of with no preorder. We are talking SNES to PSP.
And I live in a big city. I also bought 4 PS2's on launch day to "sell on Ebay." I barely got my money back. Be careful!
plasko @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
I called the Game Stop in Fort Worth, TX and they are saying they have no clue how many 360's they are going to get. They said they won't find out until a week before launch and at that time they'll call everyone who preordered and let them know if they're on first shipment or not.
Big_Ice_D @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Wal*Mart may be evil, but if capitalism is the name of the game you'd better know how to play.A 24 hour Wally World is the way to go. I've done it for the Star Wars trilogy on DVD when it first came out, Nintendo DS, and Halo 2. Never fails.Most employees don't even know they aren't supposed to sell it till midnight.
Halo 2 was the best though. I walked in about 11:30pm and was out by 11:40. Best part about it was that that there is an EB games right across the street and there was a line going down the street and around the corner...and they weren't even in the damn store yet!!! pre-order my ass.
XD @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
funkonaut,
you are a waste of sperm and I'll tell you why.
Anyone that thinks any of the 3 next-gens will be a Dreamcast has a lower iq than an orange. I truly feel sorry for you children.
PickyPants,
the luck you have had does not reflect the majority of consumers. The facts in my area are that someone at my EB called me and said it is getting almost enough to fill it's pre-orders but I was specifically told that they will have nothing what so ever to sell from their launch shipment besides pre-orders. That includes games and controls as well! I was one of the 1st 20 pre-orders and I have also been invted to the EB launch party. Lets also remember that PS2's launch had people waiting months to get their pre-ordered system in my area; I got mine the 2nd week of december! So making comments about the shortage being fake is really stupid because its not fake. In some areas it may not be an issue, but in others it will. Anyone remember how hard it was to get a PSP in some areas and yet you could walk into a store and find dozens in other areas! Please keep your comments realistic and frankly, if you barely made your money back on ebay, you did something very wrong because i know many people that made good money for the Christmas rush.
Fanboys,
I'm tired of reading these stupid fanboy posts and further more, posts which are opinions but are written as if they are facts. Grow up, buy what you like and enjoy it. All 3 systems will be good and each will appeal to different people for different reasons. You and your choice of system are not any more "cool" because you flamed a system you don't own and no one with any logical reasoning skills will follow you just because YOU said something good or bad about a system.
I like all 3 systems for different reasons, I'm not sure how many of them I will buy, but right now, I am looking forward to the XBOX360 as i'm sure many people are. I expect to be excited about the other 2 consoles closer to thier launch dates. I appreciate the competition these 3 systems will cause in the industry as things have been dull in the industry lately. To be totaly honest, i'm enjoying my GBA more than any of the 3 current consoles, PSP and NDS and I think that's a very sad thing.
Fistula @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
i just called my eb at lunch they told me my august 1st shipment preorder is pretty much worthless..their stock got cut in half
Scott @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Interesting. I just called to three different EBGames to confirm my 3 Xbox360 Preorders for launch day and one of them said I had to come in before the weekend of launch and pay in full in order to keep my spot on the list.
Another said that they would only hold my preorder one day if I didn't go ahead and pay in full.
And the last didn't say anything. He actually sounded like he was loaded with customers and was in a hurry to get me off the phone.
Fistula @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
The one i called is in Whitehall, PA
helo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:05PM
Called my EB this morning since I got the dreaded phone message last nite that I was on the second ship list. I preordered back in July. Anyway, my EB in Northern VA (outside of DC) has 190 preorders and only 38 units available for launch day. Guess I'll be scrambling on 11/21 like many others. Lame.