Does console ascendancy have a pattern? If the last 20 years of gaming are any indication,
maybe. Nintendo owned it early on for the first ten years of modern console gaming, and many thought the
company would stay on top when Sony got into the game. Now Sony has held the reigns for the past ten years
against two major competitors, and a new gaming decade is upon us.
So who will dominate next? Perhaps the Phantom?
1985-1995: Nintendo
1995-2005: Sony
2005-2015: ?
Reader Comments (79)
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
2005-2015: ?
2015-2025: PROFIT
2015-2025: PROFIT
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Should we just replace the ? with Microsoft now.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Just like Nintendo, who's time has come and gone, so too is it now Sony's time to step down and let Microsoft take over becasue as of right now, they are the only ones who seems to know what they are doing when it comes to next gen.
And so help me if one of you dim wits says "The Rev. will be the best" I'll come to your house and beat you with a garden hose. Face facts...there are no facts for whatever it is Nintendo thinks they're doing for next gen.
And so help me if one of you dim wits says "The Rev. will be the best" I'll come to your house and beat you with a garden hose. Face facts...there are no facts for whatever it is Nintendo thinks they're doing for next gen.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
i put all my money on the gizmondo! BOYEAH!!
/ironic
/ironic
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
They are obviously wanting Xbox fanboys to fill in that blank and get everyone in a pissing contest.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
2005-2015 N-Gage!
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
@3 I won't say the Rev will WIN the next gen but I will say it has the potential to be the most engaging console ever. I do believe however that MS will take a slight lead over SONY next gen, much like we saw with the N64 vs PS1. At the end of that generation the PS1 had a slight lead, but that slight lead was enough to say Nintendo was behind the times.
The Rev could very well be the BEST console ever, doesn't mean people will buy it though.
The Rev could very well be the BEST console ever, doesn't mean people will buy it though.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Talk about inviting a flame war.
I'm counting the seconds...
I nominate Vin Diesel's new machine:
The VinStation 9000.
I'm counting the seconds...
I nominate Vin Diesel's new machine:
The VinStation 9000.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Adam P proves my point. Thanks.
It's funny though, because Nintendo's "time" is still here. Maybe you could say it for Sega, because they actually ARE gone, but Nintendo is still here making money.
It's funny though, because Nintendo's "time" is still here. Maybe you could say it for Sega, because they actually ARE gone, but Nintendo is still here making money.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Adam P, I don't think Microsoft knows what's best, but they'll still win because they have the money.
Oh, and revolution will win; come and try to beat me.
Oh, and revolution will win; come and try to beat me.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Just like Nintendo, who's time has come and gone, so too is it now Sony's time to step down and let Microsoft take over becasue as of right now, they are the only ones who seems to know what they are doing when it comes to next gen.
And so help me if one of you dim wits says "The Rev. will be the best" I'll come to your house and beat you with a garden hose. Face facts...there are no facts for whatever it is Nintendo thinks they're doing for next gen.
And so help me if one of you dim wits says "The Rev. will be the best" I'll come to your house and beat you with a garden hose. Face facts...there are no facts for whatever it is Nintendo thinks they're doing for next gen.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
"Oh, and revolution will win; come and try to beat me."
On my way.
On my way.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Its microsofts turns now and i know sony fanboys will think otherwise but look at the facts teh xbox and xbox live did well even though the ps2 had a head start and with the 360 coming out this year and big games coming for it later on with the next few years and sony hyped up the ps2 which all where lies like great online play, toy story graphics etc and ps3 is lies also so xbox 360 time is noe and microsoft will own and when nintendo stops making games after the REV flops they can join the big m or just make more gameboys and be like sega
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Besides, if Microsoft wins, it's over. There won't be a "10 year pattern" anymore. It'll be Microsoft forever. :(
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Oh man, this was just asking for a fanboy flame war. If I had to take a guess I would say Sony is going to lose a bit of ground from Nintendo and Xbox is going to stay relatively the same. I think it's all going to be equaled out a bit more. But how are you judging who "wins"...by user base of profits? Because if thats the case Nintendo would be king.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
As much of a Nintendo fanboy I am, I have to admit that #2 is right, for now. I do think it's fun to predict stuff (what the hell else do we have to do). But I think Nintendo has a shot. If nothing else, I bet there are more 2 console houses this time around than ever, might be hard to claim a true victor.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Even though I hope MS takes control, I don't think they can. They will never have Japan. It seems as though Americans are open minded when it comes to games, the japanese only want Japanese consoles and games. They seem narrow minded. (not an insult, just an observation). Also the fan base for the PS is just too big.
I wish MS wouldn't focus so much on Japan, and really try to win at the two places it actually has a chance-Europe and the US.
I wish MS wouldn't focus so much on Japan, and really try to win at the two places it actually has a chance-Europe and the US.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Sega's going to make a comeback. They're working on a system that will trounce Nintendo, Sony, and MS deep undergound in a bunker near Area51.
SEGA!!
SEGA!!
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
I heard from my local EB that the VinStation 9000 will have an external power supply the size of a mini-fridge....
I like this story for the sake of giving the Sony and Microsoft fans knives in a sealed dark room. FIGHT!
It's an intresting observation.... But doesn't mean a damn thing.
I like this story for the sake of giving the Sony and Microsoft fans knives in a sealed dark room. FIGHT!
It's an intresting observation.... But doesn't mean a damn thing.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
OMG, I never knew joystiq resorted to flamebait.
Lamest blog entry ever.
Lamest blog entry ever.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
"The Rev. will be the best" says me.
Bring on the garden hose!
Actually I think it's more about the leading companys additude. Once Sony get too full of themselves like Nintendo once did they'll fall just the same. There will always be another waiting to jump into the #1 spot.
Bring on the garden hose!
Actually I think it's more about the leading companys additude. Once Sony get too full of themselves like Nintendo once did they'll fall just the same. There will always be another waiting to jump into the #1 spot.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Also, it won't be as easy as Nintendo or Sony had it. 360 still looks like it has an uphill battle in the land of the rising sun; it would be rare to see a victory without Microsoft's (And sony's) blood spilled all over; considering that in Britain and Germany, the European countries with most population, want the PS3 more despite 360 launching in a week from now, and does not like Microsoft (or America) respectively. Sony is still stronger than Nintendo was in 1996 with its N64; at least in name and consoles sold. Microsoft won't win that easily.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Just wanted to point out that you could easily plug Atari into the ten years before Nintendo, reinforcing the cyclical pattern.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Metal gear: we quickly hide posts that are flames. There are discussions, and there are flames. We're inviting discussion. If it turns nasty, we pull out the banstick.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
The next gen is still up in the air. To say MS has already won is pretty lame. MS is definitely getting a first to market advantage but it may or may not pan out to the degree necessary to unseat sony. I look forward to seeing some major battles amongst the big three. Whoever wins, the consumer comes out ahead IMO. Due to their similar business models of taking big losses in the early part of the generation, I think that either sony or MS will definitely be limping at the end of this gen. Nintendo will probably sell a few more consoles then last gen and make excellent profits once again.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
I'd say Microsoft and Sony will split it until 2009, this is only due to the complication of the PS3 hardware that average consumers will have a hard time buying due to price and justification. By 2010 or afterward, Microsoft will lead. One big reason will not only because of the videogame itself, but on-line and computer connectivity to the home entertainment system. Microsoft has a vision regards to 'Media Extender' technology and with their monopoly on the Windows Operating system, its inevitable.
By 2010 an average consumer expect to be able to view pictures/videos/music/internet/video chat/games from their MULTIPLE HDTV's instead of a single point of interface as the computer is today. The ladder XBOX will cater to this and lead the way in home entertainment system while Sony will be second if not last behind Nintendo if they try to compete too hard against Microsoft.
Only time will tell but that's what my 8 Ball told me after three shakes.
By 2010 an average consumer expect to be able to view pictures/videos/music/internet/video chat/games from their MULTIPLE HDTV's instead of a single point of interface as the computer is today. The ladder XBOX will cater to this and lead the way in home entertainment system while Sony will be second if not last behind Nintendo if they try to compete too hard against Microsoft.
Only time will tell but that's what my 8 Ball told me after three shakes.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
I don't know...but I do know this...the Nintendo DS in insuring that portable dominance will stay in Seattle. :-)
Let's Kart!!!
Let's Kart!!!
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
ask yourself... who buys 80% of games?
It mostly men in the 16-30 range. That is the market the xbox went for.
Rev is going for the old people and party types who get the console out for a quick laugh when monopoly becomes too much.
All sony have done is show you how big there cock is with the Cell. It's all very good showing how good it is but how will developers get to that level in the 5 year life span this gen has?
XNA is going to be the key. It will work on windows, linux, macs and 360. So you make 1 game to work on all those platforms.
Where are people going to invest?... 1 guest each.
It mostly men in the 16-30 range. That is the market the xbox went for.
Rev is going for the old people and party types who get the console out for a quick laugh when monopoly becomes too much.
All sony have done is show you how big there cock is with the Cell. It's all very good showing how good it is but how will developers get to that level in the 5 year life span this gen has?
XNA is going to be the key. It will work on windows, linux, macs and 360. So you make 1 game to work on all those platforms.
Where are people going to invest?... 1 guest each.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
"japanese only want Japanese consoles and games. They seem narrow minded."
That would be like saying that the Japanese only want Japanese cars (which is wrong, you should see the amount of German cars over there) or Japanese movies (American movies are a success over there). Also, a Japanese could say the same thing about Americans "Americans just want 'cool and hip' as opposed to 'useful', let alone violence, sex and guns". It's just that the Japanese want good games (that cater to them), that's all, not only FPS and a few non-Japanese RPGames.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
It cracks me up. In no other industry (at least that I'm aware of) is so much emphasis put on "winning" instead of profitability. Nintendo kicks ass when it comes to making money, but they are always pissed on as the number 3 console company.
Do you think the Nintendo share holders care which place the Gamecube is in? With the profits the Big N consistently delivers, hell no.
Gamers get in way too many pissing matches if you asked me.
Do you think the Nintendo share holders care which place the Gamecube is in? With the profits the Big N consistently delivers, hell no.
Gamers get in way too many pissing matches if you asked me.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
I see 1 of 2 things happening here,
1 if ? = Microsoft
I'm concerned that they have too much money and will blow money to extend it past 10 years.
2 the breakdown of the 10 year cycle. I think things will be more territorial in the future. What I mean is this: (This is an example, not a prediction!)
Americas = Microsoft dominance
Japan = Sony dominance
Nintendo = Euro dominance
Game developers will have to be less console exclusive so that they can accomodate the territorial dominace.
1 if ? = Microsoft
I'm concerned that they have too much money and will blow money to extend it past 10 years.
2 the breakdown of the 10 year cycle. I think things will be more territorial in the future. What I mean is this: (This is an example, not a prediction!)
Americas = Microsoft dominance
Japan = Sony dominance
Nintendo = Euro dominance
Game developers will have to be less console exclusive so that they can accomodate the territorial dominace.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
I don't see any ten year pattern. The only company who dominated the industry for 10 years and then lost their position was Nintendo. Yes, Sony has dominated the industry for 10 years now (well, if you count from the PlayStation's launch) but who's to say that they're going to lose it this year? If Microsoft beats them this generation, then there'd be a pattern. One precedent does not make a pattern.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
I don't think there will be any one console or company to dominate the next 10 years. It'll be a split of MS and Sony who enjoys most of the attention, and a very loyal following for Nintendo and their Revolution and Gameboys. I just can't see anyone company owning more than 50% of the marketshare. For portables, I think Nintendo has owned ever since the release of the original Gameboy with Tetris...when was that...1989ish? I see Nintendo continuing to own the portable market.
-John
http://www.deliveryblog.com/
-John
http://www.deliveryblog.com/
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
If the banstick is a little overwhelmed, maybe Bungie will let you borrow the Banhammer.
I don't think Japanese are narrow minded at all. Look at how they've embraced the DS. They just don't like FPS games like we do. And I love my Xbox, but it is overwhelmed with FPS games. Personally, I hope to see a little more Japanese love for the Xbox this time around.
I hate seeing great Japanese games like Devil May Cry, MGS, Tekken, Virtua Fighter, etc. go only to PS2. Hopefully, MS can convince more Japanese developers that they will earn back their investments with 360.
Also, as a fun fact:
It is little known and often intentionally overlooked fact that SEGA was founded by an American. SEGA was actually short for Service Games and most of its business dealt with fixing pachinko machines.
I don't think Japanese are narrow minded at all. Look at how they've embraced the DS. They just don't like FPS games like we do. And I love my Xbox, but it is overwhelmed with FPS games. Personally, I hope to see a little more Japanese love for the Xbox this time around.
I hate seeing great Japanese games like Devil May Cry, MGS, Tekken, Virtua Fighter, etc. go only to PS2. Hopefully, MS can convince more Japanese developers that they will earn back their investments with 360.
Also, as a fun fact:
It is little known and often intentionally overlooked fact that SEGA was founded by an American. SEGA was actually short for Service Games and most of its business dealt with fixing pachinko machines.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Personally I think Nintendo can undercut the competion and come out on top. They are aiming for a $150-$200 price point. Casual gamers and parents will get it because it's so much cheaper then the other two and it will also draw in new non-gamers. People who have a PS2 and an Xbox this generation will likely not have a PS3 and a 360 due to high price points so the most common gamer will likely have a PS3 or 360 and a Revolution. But alas there will always be the people who say "nintendo is gay" and the 12 year olds who say "nintendo is 4 lusers"
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Yeah the japanese market will stay a problem for Microsoft for a while. As #16 already said, it seems to me that there is a large portion of Japanese gamers who refuse to play games which are not Japanese. At my local EB Games, a japanese gamer was saying that although the Xbox 360 looked really cool, he doesnt trust American games at all. Thats why he is going to wait for the PS3.
Aside from all of that, I think that in this coming Generation the market share will be almost equally divided between Sony and Microsoft. The trends should become clearer by 2007.
On a side note: Pirates probably are going to crack all 3 of the machines copy-protection codes eventually. But I think that its gonna be much easier to duplicate pirated copies of Xbox 360 and Revolution games since both use DVD discs as opposed to the impossibaly expensive blu-ray discs. Piracy has been known to drive sales of the original Playstation and the PS2... Just a thought...
Aside from all of that, I think that in this coming Generation the market share will be almost equally divided between Sony and Microsoft. The trends should become clearer by 2007.
On a side note: Pirates probably are going to crack all 3 of the machines copy-protection codes eventually. But I think that its gonna be much easier to duplicate pirated copies of Xbox 360 and Revolution games since both use DVD discs as opposed to the impossibaly expensive blu-ray discs. Piracy has been known to drive sales of the original Playstation and the PS2... Just a thought...
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
"Xbox 360 has an early lead advantage"
As did the Dreamcast and we all know how that turned out.........
As did the Dreamcast and we all know how that turned out.........
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Just don't start complaining once Microsoft has monopolized the video game console. Once they take over lets see how big a mess Microsoft makes. I definitely don't want to see that. I can handle Sony, Nintendo, Sega, or whoever. Just not them.
If it happens, I've got my hard hat and I'm really for the video game crash. I'll be prepared.
Screw XNA. I don't want to buy games that are available on every platform. If so, then I can just stick to using the PC I am on right now. I want games that I can only play in one place.
If it happens, I've got my hard hat and I'm really for the video game crash. I'll be prepared.
Screw XNA. I don't want to buy games that are available on every platform. If so, then I can just stick to using the PC I am on right now. I want games that I can only play in one place.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
What does XNA have to do with anything?
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
"Rev is going for the old people and party types who get the console out for a quick laugh when monopoly becomes too much."
So this is what Nintendo gets? A bunch of people who can't see past ONE commercial. "Hey, look! old people! This console is for old people" ... "Hey look! Construction workers! This Dodge truck is only for construction people!" ... "Hey look! A golden retriever! That dog food is only for golden retrievers!!"
"derrrr, commercials think for me, so I don't have to"
So this is what Nintendo gets? A bunch of people who can't see past ONE commercial. "Hey, look! old people! This console is for old people" ... "Hey look! Construction workers! This Dodge truck is only for construction people!" ... "Hey look! A golden retriever! That dog food is only for golden retrievers!!"
"derrrr, commercials think for me, so I don't have to"
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
I remember that DVD piracy was prohibitively expensive when the PS2 and Xbox were in development. But within a year after they came out, it was pretty cheap.
I somehow suspect that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be the same.
As for which company will come out on top... I'm going to take a stab in the dark and say that the console with the best games will win. And given that only launch titles have been developed or are being developed right now (and launch titles almost universally suck), people shouldn't trip over themselves declaring a winner (or loser) for the next round of console wars.
Though Mat has a good point - maybe we should just look at profits and the like. After all, if Nintendo lags behind the other two but their profits are better than the other two, are they really losing?
I somehow suspect that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be the same.
As for which company will come out on top... I'm going to take a stab in the dark and say that the console with the best games will win. And given that only launch titles have been developed or are being developed right now (and launch titles almost universally suck), people shouldn't trip over themselves declaring a winner (or loser) for the next round of console wars.
Though Mat has a good point - maybe we should just look at profits and the like. After all, if Nintendo lags behind the other two but their profits are better than the other two, are they really losing?
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
"What does XNA have to do with anything?"
Everything. The tools matter.
Everything. The tools matter.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Hey Mat,
I'm with ya bro. My guess as to your question is that once you realize the company you like it basically paying people to use their console, the only thing you have left to be proud of is market share.
Likewise, us nintendo folks can't point at market share any more so we have to shout about profits. Either way, we are all lame for fighting about it when we have more in common than differences because we are all just video game hacks at our core. Just with differing tastes.
I'm with ya bro. My guess as to your question is that once you realize the company you like it basically paying people to use their console, the only thing you have left to be proud of is market share.
Likewise, us nintendo folks can't point at market share any more so we have to shout about profits. Either way, we are all lame for fighting about it when we have more in common than differences because we are all just video game hacks at our core. Just with differing tastes.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
the japanses buy japanese games and consoles...nintendo and sony...the stats PROVE that..and i dont think MS will EVER get a foothold there at all..but they're gonan try this last time and eventually i think they will just chalk up japan in the loss column in the coming years...they need to focus on europe and the US...
and if the PS3 flops i gaurantee a MS takeover...and so far sony seems to be shotting themselves in the foot...over and over...nintendo on the other had soesnt care...they're maing money..they have a little fan base...theyre fine sittng back and watchin the battle between MS and Sony..but thier marketshare wont increase...
by 2010
1.MS 40% range - profits in long term
2.SONY 35% range- profits in VERY long term
3.nintendo 25% range- intial profits
and if the PS3 flops i gaurantee a MS takeover...and so far sony seems to be shotting themselves in the foot...over and over...nintendo on the other had soesnt care...they're maing money..they have a little fan base...theyre fine sittng back and watchin the battle between MS and Sony..but thier marketshare wont increase...
by 2010
1.MS 40% range - profits in long term
2.SONY 35% range- profits in VERY long term
3.nintendo 25% range- intial profits
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
1975-1985 Atari
I got a 7800 and a whole slew of (very fun and infinitely playable to this day) games the year NES came out (sold out everywhere) partially due to the dominance of the Atari brand at the time.
2005-2015 Atari Rises!
I got a 7800 and a whole slew of (very fun and infinitely playable to this day) games the year NES came out (sold out everywhere) partially due to the dominance of the Atari brand at the time.
2005-2015 Atari Rises!
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
SEGA!
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
1975-1985: Atari
1985-1995: Nintendo
1995-2005: Sony
2005-2015: Microsoft
2015-2025: Google
2025-2035: Kleenex
All hail our new Kleenex overlords!
1985-1995: Nintendo
1995-2005: Sony
2005-2015: Microsoft
2015-2025: Google
2025-2035: Kleenex
All hail our new Kleenex overlords!
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
Uhh, there's no pattern here. This is just stupid.
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
The Revolution will destroy all who oppose.
That company which trys to stand in the way of the Revolution, will find themselves burnt to dust, and none will mourn, for they have received their due.
And on their tombstones will be written the words
that would have saved their pitiful existence:
"If only we would have innovated!"
That company which trys to stand in the way of the Revolution, will find themselves burnt to dust, and none will mourn, for they have received their due.
And on their tombstones will be written the words
that would have saved their pitiful existence:
"If only we would have innovated!"
Posted: Dec 18th 2005 9:02PM (Unverified) said
agreed with Kouheikun, how can you have a pattern with one number. Nintendo has 1985-1995 so automatically from a one piece of data conclusion Joystiq can wedge a little root for the 360 by implying with the (?) that the xbox will reign supreme. I do commend many joystiq readers that commented on this post for saying that this is pointless, because it is.
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