Blu-Ray and HD-DVD fighting a lost battle? Holographic storage arrives sooner than you think
by Vladimir Cole 
{ Nov 26th 2005 at 9:30PM }
While fanboys battle it out on the importance of the Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD format war, companies
including Turner Entertainment Networks have already begun to move towards holographic storage. It's closer than you
might think.
Early versions of holographic disk storage store up to 300GB per disk. By 2010, the disks are expected to cost $100 each and store 1.6 terabytes (that's roughly 1,600 gigabytes) each. At least one company expects to break the 1TB-per-disk barrier by 2008.
Here are some primers on holographic storage. Read up, then decide for yourself if you still believe that HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are the final disk-based format we'll see this decade.
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Turner Entertainment turns to holographic storage in ComputerWorld
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holographic storage nears debut in EE Times
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holographic storage: virtual reality? in ZDNet UK
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Japanese holographic storage firm to ship 200GB drives in '06 in ComputerWorld
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300GB disc set to challenge DVD in VNUnet
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Maxell to unveil holographic storage in 2006 in Tech Spot
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
AssemblyLineHuman @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
I doubt they'll be cheap enough to use ($100 PER DISK in 2010!?) until near the end of the next generation (or this generation for people who already have an Xbox 360 I suppose) at the earliest.
Ben H @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
Posted Nov 26, 2005, 9:38 PM ET by AssemblyLineHuman
I doubt they'll be cheap enough to use ($100 PER DISK in 2010!?) until near the end of the next generation (or this generation for people who already have an Xbox 360 I suppose) at the earliest.
l don't know about you..but l'd get 1.6TB of storage for $100.
CapAmerica @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
This is the reason I don't support HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. Why bother to re-buy your movies in one of those formats why Holo-Discs are so close. I'm not going to buy my new movies or re-buy movies I own in DVD just to throw them out for Holo-discs in 2-4 years.
Also I think the price per disc will cost a whole lot less once they hit mass production. Just look at Blu-Ray little less then a year ago the discs where around $70 a piece.
Blueman @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
The iPod invisa will be able to hold 100,000,000,000,000 surround sound songs, HD 2070p videos, and true-3d games.
Echo Charlie @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
I say it'll succeed for no other reason than Sony's track record with introducing new formats. They all seem to fail. So I have reason to believe Blu Ray will fail too.
Digital distribution will also be a factor
Nick @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
That's $100 per disc-that's-177x-larger-than-dual-layer-DVDs in 2010. So that's about $3.20 for a 52GB disc, which is the largest target size for upcoming Blu-Ray discs near their launch, I think; I know the largest tested capacity was 100GB with a theoretical limit of 200GB - that means about $12.50 for a disc that meets Blu-Ray's theoretical limit.
I agree that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are both fighting a losing battle because holographic discs are pretty close. DVD had a good 10+ year run, from 1996 until a few years from now. However, whichever format "wins" will only be the "best" for maybe 3-5 years as far as capacity as well as read and write speed go.
It would be nice to see every single NES, SNES, and N64 game on one Holographic disc or every Xbox / Xbox 360 game on a set of five Holographic discs. Now that would make for an interesting game library that was easy to access.
Hope to see a Holographic disc reader in the next Xbox incarnation five years from now ;P
Nick
vc @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
No game is going to need 1.6 terabytes of storage. If a 1.6 terabyte disk is going to cost $100, then a 100gb disk (plenty for any game created prior to 2010, given current trends) will cost much, much less.
Lazy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
As I say, shoving the blu-ray down consumer's throats isnt going to help: the technology is obsolete before it is even released.
bo bo bobobo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
hd, Blu-ray pwnd!!
n3rrd @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
$100 for a disk that holds aproximately 20x a double layer Blu-Ray disk.
Hell, a package of three name brand dual layer DVDs can run you about $30.00 as it is.
---
8.4GB * 3 = 25.2GB Total storage in a package of Dual Layer DVDs
1,600 GB / 25.2GB = 64 packages of Dual Layer DVDs (rounded up)
64 * 30.00 = $1920 for a comparable amount of storage in modern media
---
I doubt to see that number change very much for blu-ray, as it's just going to be more expensive per disk than a DVD anyways.
Qubit @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
I've been waiting for the HVD for a while, and I will be waiting for many more years. This is like the next-next-generation disc format. But don't expect Blu-ray and HD-DVD to dissapear before they appear.
HVD seems like a waste of space for movies... They would be best for computer files, like anime, games, databases, and anything else you'd want to store or backup.
The HD-DVD and Blu-Ray battles will continue for a while more.
Chris Lawrance @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
You know I have to admit (and I hate doing this) I agree with Mr. Gates on this one. I think that physical media is going to disappear altogether eventually move by way of transfer. Granted we have a ways to go before 1.6 Tera's is gonna be moving from one point to another with any speed. Streaming games perhaps?
James @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
All this talk of all these futuristic devices and more storage and faster internet speeds. We've gotten side tracked. Where is our voice command? Flying cars? Those doors that open automatically like in Star Trek. And yes I know we have doors that can open for us but they dont make that "wooosh" sound effect. It's 2005 dammit. Wheres my wooosh.
Zo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
I am sure that HD-DVD or Blu-ray players-- whoever wins -- will be backward compatible with existing media.
In the future, as HD becomes standard (Maybe Dec 2007) then we will see the higher format media and any new movies we buy will be in the new format.
The holo-disks do have value for the following:
- Media distribution to movie theaters
- Medical imaging and archiving
- Law libraries
- Public Libraries
I can't see these things ever making it into the home even by 2050. There is only so much resolution that you need to have a quality media experience.
If people are going gaga over 1 inch videos on there vpods why do we need holo disk movies in the home?
Ryan @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
Whenever I step out of an elevator or step through an automatic door, I make the "woooosh" sound myself. a nice convo starter.
Raydeen @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
Laserdisc still beats them all !!!!
Just joking, I still like the idea of HD-DVD over Blu-Ray.
your enemies friends @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
sweet!! bring on the holographic porno games!!!
Hachi_roku @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
James you should watch Discovery Science channel more, there a whole lot of crap out there thats not mainstream yet.
Also everyone is overlooking the important thing. How freaking long will it take to burn to these discs. I havent been able to put anime on dvds the way I want because it takes hours to encode all that crap, then the DVD fails in the last minute meaning i wasted money and time.
Gin @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
1600 gigs!!??.. you could store your whole life in that sh!t LOL!
imasupernothing @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
Posted Nov 26, 2005, 10:05 PM ET by vc
"No game is going to need 1.6 terabytes of storage. If a 1.6 terabyte disk is going to cost $100, then a 100gb disk (plenty for any game created prior to 2010, given current trends) will cost much, much less."
- 640K is more memory than anyone will ever need!
rebel @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
Man you could have extremely realistic games.
The only thing that can hold more information than that is an supercomputer, quantum computer, an atom or the universe.
ray @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
if the read speeds are fast enough i wonder if these disc can replace a harddrive
LaughingTarget @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
I wouldn't mind giving developers 1.6 TB of space if they wouldn't fill it up with hours of lame 1080p cutscenes. Developers could literally create worlds, round and all, where you can run one direction and end up back where you started, with that kind of space. Wars with literally millions of units at once duking it out. Individual grass blades? Phht. Talk individual grains of sand.
But folks like Square would just make the clone hero of their RPGs just that much more detailed in the non-interactive movie.
Embassy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
man if devs used that shit..it wud take them literally DECADES to make a game..yallg otta look past the 1.6 terabytte crap and think how much a small 100gb or so wud cost..im sur eno where near 100 bones per disc...so this really seems liek a vable option..and with larger capacity comes faster burn speeds and tranfsfer rates so im not really concerned...i still dotn see the point of hd or blu ray...and dvd had a short lifespan...dvds didnt really pop off till like 200 around when the ps2 came out..i still think it has a few years left..i have nothing wrong with having more than one cd with a game..it wont kill me...
Nick @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
*1985* "Man John, it would take us DECADES to make a game that could fill 4GB!"
*2005* "Sweet Jesus, it would take us DECADES to make a game that could take up 4TB of space."
*2025* "Guys, I think we're going to need to use two PB discs for this game, we're near the limit on disc one; call the publisher to see what they think about that."
Nick
Noga @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
pwns all storage
Colin @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
I like the whole idea but it comes around every so often and then seems to fail miserably until people take interest once again. Don't believe me? do a google search for "FMD-ROM", happened about 4 years ago and then....POOF....gone....
chad h @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
i guess M$ was right about not including the HD-DVD format in their xbox 360 console.
Hopefully they come out with a holographic drive add-on. that would be sweet.
HardwareGuy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
Ultra-nano-blue-holo-laserdiscs coming in 2020, I'm waiting for those.
...did I mention they're double-sided?
ZeroCorpse @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
By BD's logic, the PS3 is going to be left behind and worthless because it doesn't embrace this newest storage technology. You'll be playing your PS3 Blu-Ray discs and have to swap them! If Sony would just use holographic storage, then the PS2.5 wouldn't be so crippled when the really great games come out!
There's always something new on the horizon. But that's just it: It's on the horizon. It's not here yet. It's not in any homes. It's not in widespread use. It's not affordable or even agreed-upon by every publisher, and I'm not talking about holographic tech- I'm talking about Blue-Ray and HD-DVD.
It took a long time for people to be persuaded to go from VHS to DVD, and now that they've replaced their library of movies, they aren't about to rush out and do it again only a few years later. I *still* get people in my store looking for VHS! I still have family members who refuse to buy a DVD player because they have thousands of dollars invested in video tapes. And I know this isn't unusual.
So when Blu-Ray, HD-DVD, Holographic, or Nano-Micro-Uber-Chip storage is out there, people will not just jump on board in a short time. It takes years to make this kind of change.
Look at HDTV! People are dragging ass toward the end of analog TV. People don't want to buy an HDTV if a SDTV is $150 cheaper. Retailers are STILL selling lots of 4:3 standard televisions, and why? Because people- normal Joe Blow consumers- don't want the latest, newest, best thing. They want what they're used to.
Unfortunately, geeks, technophiles, and gamers don't rule the world or make the rules. It's Joe Sixpack and his wife that decide what makes it in the retail market.
demifiend @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
Before the xbox fanboys get too excited about holo-discs compensating for the 360s lack of next-gen disc support you should realize that it will be many years before these discs are ready for mass distribution and even longer before anyone makes media that requires that much storage capacity. Blu-ray on the other hand is ready for mass consumption and there is actually a need for it. Current gen games are completely filling dual-layer DVDs right now and next gen games will require a lot more space. And its about time we are able to watch movies in HD. This is the HD era and a HD disc is needed. Blu-Ray is in a great position to become the main disc format. The PS3 will establish a large base of consumers with Blu-ray players already in their homes and everyone who has spent the money to get a HDTV will want to watch movies in HD and therefore buy Blu-ray players. I think Blu-ray will easily defeat HDDVD due to the PS3 and most people won't wait another 15 years for holo-discs before enjoying movies in HD. By the time holo-discs come around everything will probably be in digital format anyway.
MarkTAW @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
Businesses have to act on the current market. While some of what they do is speculation, they can't delay a product 5+ years to wait for the next big thing.
(Hint: There's always something amazing around the corner)
Tamo @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
Why need a hard drive when you have a disc that stores 1.6 terabytes? And if it does cost about $120, thats about how much it costs me now to get about 200gig hard drive. Seems pretty reasonably priced if you ask me. I just wonder how much the writer for something like that would cost?
demifiend @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
any by the way, Blu-ray doesn't kill DVD like DVD did to VHS so consumers don't have to worry about throwing away their entire movie collection.
CV @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
I want high-definition movies on disc already. I'm going to be buying a new TV soon, and regular DVD just isn't going to cut it. Blue laser was being talked about before red laser DVDs were even out, and they're still not on the market. I've invested a lot in my DVD collection, and I don't plan to replace them all, but I definitely want the big, gorgeous films in high-def. I'm tired of relying on my cable company for high-definition content. Half of the time they're playing only DVD-quality versions of the films, anyway, and it's worse when it's the 4:3 version of the film broadcast in 16:9. They need to start accounting for 4:3 content and not stretching it to 16:9. I'm so tired of watching things in the wrong aspect ratio. Tangent, sorry.
Qubit @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
In response to bd (formerly b) post 34
The last paragraph made me think... (and that makes me happy [the fact that I'm thinking])
I always thought, "couldn't they just have multiple discs? like final fantasy 7 for example"... I never thought about the fact that it would only work for linear games...
Games that require the use of any part of the entire data within minutes would be impossible on multiple discs unless you loaded it onto a hard drive first (I have no examples of games like this... maybe Final Fantasy XI, but they needed that on the harddrive anyways; internet updates); I wouldn't want to change it every 15 minutes... You would have to load the game on the Hard Drive to make it work smoothly, but you would loose hard drive space fast...
But then again, most games will still manage to fit on a DVD for a while longer ^-^
VHS->DVD->BLU-RAY->HVD->??? (some super sophisticated technological data storage that looks like a CD o_o));;
Mark B @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
bd (formerly b),
You made some excellent points. Microsoft really seems to have screwed itself. *snickers*
I can't wait to read the reply from ZeroCorpse. I'm sure he will have some outlandish response to your post. LOL
don_sf @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
what you dont understand is that when you have a ps3 or blu-ray player, you DONT have to chuck your dvds away. but you did have to on the vhs.
normal people wouldnt eed 1.6 tb of data, it would be a waste of space. look at the position of 700mb cd and cdrw today, they sell because people do not always need 700mb.
no matter how good your technology is, a few giga bytes of data (e.g. dvd or bd) will be easier and cheaper to handle than processing and accessing tera bytes.
ask your self, what would YOU do with 1.6 tb disks.
cap @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
so sony seem to fail on introducing new formats?
what about walkman & playstation systems ?
holographic discs will be aimed at cinemas and tv stations at first as a secure uncopyable format that has huge capacity and will not be available to the general public until there is a real need for it.
it will also be used by goverment organisations and large business for economical storage economical for them that is.
also the cost for such discs and players will be very high at first way beyond the $1000 price that new products normally start at.
Tubular @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
It's going to be YEARS before DVD is replaced by any next generation format.
Blu-Ray and HD DVD are looking to satisfy a couple of needs: more space (although this is not necessarily a requirement for most movies), high definition (which most people cannot yet exploit), and tougher encryption (which the movie studios want to introduce to stop the copying of movies).
For Blu-Ray and HD DVD to be successful, DVD has to disappear. But DVD is such a popular format right now, unless the movie studios stop releasing DVDs, it'll be years before a new format takes over.
HD DVD is backwards compatible. Blu Ray could be backwards compatible if supported by the manufacturer. So there in lies a rub. Anyone with an existing DVD collection can continue to use their existing movies on most new players. Why buy them all over again unless you have a DVD collection or movie that spills across more than one disc.
The new media is going to be more expensive initially. This is true of all new media. Will the expense be passed on to consumers? Will we have to pay more for movies on Blu-Ray or HD DVD even if we don't have an HDTV to exploit what the new media offers?
Alternatives such as holographic discs which offer even more capacity and digital distribution are on the horizon. This could be devastating to both Blu-Ray and HD DVD, since neither has been officially released as a consumer format in the US yet. Apple is dipping it's toes into digital distribution. TIVO has been working on it for years. Netflix is rumored to be interested. CISCO bought Scientific Atlantic because is realizes what is coming. And the baby bells are looking to get into Internet TV distribution. What if we had hard drives in our set atop boxes and we just downloaded the movies we wanted to view on demand instead of using disc all together?
So Knee @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
I'm not sure if walkman or playstation are considered formats. They're more or less electronics. The Walkman hasn't been popular for years. Sony has also found success with Trinitron tube TVs, but that success is fading.
Sony introduced Betamax which was superior to competitor VHS. VHS won out.
Sony introduced 8mm for camcorders. Which eventually had to compete with VHS-C in addition to VHS camcorders and then later digital models.
Sony introduced MiniDisc after CD was available. It was originally intended to replace cassette, and then later 3.5" diskettes. It never caught on with the mainstream, but had a dedicated niche following.
Sony didn't embraced MP3 after it was introduced but instead introduced a competing format ATRAC that I'm sure most people have never heard of or used.
Sony has always tried to do their own thing.
Grey Eminence @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be OBSOLETE in 2 years.
http://p2pnet.net/story/7124
SE @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
>>I say it'll succeed for no other reason than Sony's track record with introducing new formats. They all seem to fail. So I have reason to believe Blu Ray will fail too.
Actually, Sony (with their long time partner phillips) have introduced several of the most succesful formats around::
>>The first being the 3.5" floppy disk.
>>The second being the CD-ROM (along with Phillips).
>>Sony also gets credit for the DVD as well since the DVD is a merger of the MMCD and SD (super density disk). And the MMCD was a Sony/Phillips standard.
As far as the holodisk goes, this is the next-Next generation format. You might note that most of the companies that are investing in Holodisks are companies investing in HD-DVD/Blu-ray. Matsushita/Toshba/Maxell and even Sony is developing Holodisks.
http://www.eet.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=35500002
xej @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
To everyone who says these can replace Hard drives, think again:
By the time we NEED 1.6 TB of data at hand, the hard drive sizes would also have grown...
Nick @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
So many people have missed the point of this news post. Nobody is saying that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray are going to be "skipped over" because companies will wait for HVDs. The point is that whomever "wins" the current format wars will have just enough time to make a beachhead into home entertainment before the next generation format HVD comes along ready to try to replace them; DVD, by contrast, has had 10 years to make an encampment.
The people saying, consumers dont need that much storage, are just ripping their leg off and shoving the whole thing in their mouth. Anybody who has ever said that X ----bytes is enough data or that so much storage wouldnt be used has always been wrong. Before somebody quotes it (again), Bill Gates never really said anything as shortsighted as the infamous 640K quote.
I dont know how old most of the readers here are, but who here remembers when 2MB of video memory was amazing and wed never need more? Raise your hand if you remember the Pentium OverDrive and how it was the best thing since sliced bread for beastly super computers. How about PC66, anybody? Believe it or not, my examples arent THAT old and yet we laugh at the thought of running a calculator on a machine with those specs these days.
Whats the point? Remove the foot from your mouth and dont say that people wont need or use something because it is far superior to what is currently available. Sure, not EVERYBODY will need 1.6TB (which is just one of many possible disc sizes) of storage in 5 years, but how many people do you know that still run a Pentium III 500MHz (which was released in 1999)? Ill stick with my 4800+ X2, thank you very much.
BD, are you a game developer? Have you ever even worked on a digital project? Are Itagaki (at least get the mans last name right) and Takeuchi (who is confirmed to also be creating Resident Evil 5 for the PS3 and therefore is not exclusive) the only developers in the world? I would love for you to quote them both as to the specific concerns theyve expressed.
DVD storage is plenty for a little while longer if the developers are smart about making the most of technology in this generation (formerly: the next generation of gaming). Using texture and audio compression, procedural synthesis, and other techniques, space wont be an issue for the Xbox 360 until those technologies have been exploited to their fullest. And no, texture and audio compression arent new, but they are improved.
To answer your statement about disc usage after launch titles; developers exploitation of these technologies will be more widespread and better understood, resulting in more substantive games as time goes on. More substantive games on the same size media, that is. Something else to note, once developers like Tecmo and Square move away from FMV sequences and start using in-engine cutscenes (like in Halo and Halo 2, among many other games), theyll see a lot more space available to them on discs.
Before anybody comments, I am not saying a developer could not USE or doesnt need the space provided by HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. All Im saying is that they can use space saving techniques (that also improve data transfer and load times) to make a quality immersive game, thanks to technologies at their disposal. Before people including game developers freak out about space issues, they should be aware of what the power available to game developers can be used for. To my knowledge, neither Itagaki nor Takeuchi are programmers.
Nick
joel @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
"Actually, Sony (with their long time partner phillips) have introduced several of the most succesful formats around:
The first being the 3.5" floppy disk.
The second being the CD-ROM (along with Phillips).
Sony also gets credit for the DVD as well since the DVD is a merger of the MMCD and SD (super density disk). And the MMCD was a Sony/Phillips standard."
Sony did introduce the 3.5" disk as the successor to the 5.25" diskette.
Compact disc work was initally begun by Philips in the early 70s. By the late 70s several companies including Sony were working on prototypes. By 1979, Sony joined Philips and begun a joint effort. Philips contributed the general manufacturing process, based on the video Laserdisc technology. Philips also contributed the Eight-to-Fourteen Modulation, EFM, which offers both a large playing time and a high resilience against disc handling damage such as scratches and fingerprints; while Sony contributed the error-correction method, CIRC. According to Philips the Compact Disc was invented collectively by a large group of people working as a team.
In the early 90s, Philips and Sony began work on MultiMedia Compact Disc (MMCD) while Toshiba, Time-Warner, Matsushita Electric, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, Pioneer, Thomson, and JVC were working on Super Density Disc (SD). Philips and Sony abandoned MMCD and agreed upon Toshiba's SD format with two modifications; pit geometry and Philips' EFMPlus. This effort eventually resulted in the DVD specification announced in 1995.
vc @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
If you're wondering where your posts went, they were deleted because they included personal attacks or veered off topic. If your posts are getting deleted, you're one step away from getting banned. This includes BD and Arturo. Chill out, please.
troy @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
Actually this will replace Harddrives! not the physical media cause the read and write are faster then those 10 000rpm Hard Drives! And Mr.Billy Gates will come true (or you know it'll be like removable storage, with the "Physical Media" label slapped right back on). Actually Microsoft are full of Jack-Asses that believe in sacrafycing resources, for getting low quality products from one end of the room to another (I say upgradable game consoles (or HDTV's) and CPU's will unite with OPEN-SOURCE, crushing Microsofts money hogging dreams!
Rare Hare @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
by ZeroCorpse:
"It took a long time for people to be persuaded to go from VHS to DVD, and now that they've replaced their library of movies, they aren't about to rush out and do it again only a few years later. I *still* get people in my store looking for VHS! I still have family members who refuse to buy a DVD player because they have thousands of dollars invested in video tapes. And I know this isn't unusual."
that's completely irrelevant because Blu-Ray DVD players will support standard DVDs as well. no change required for those who have already adopted DVDs as their standard media format.
Playbomber @ Dec 18th 2005 9:06PM
I agree that it is blind to say that a certain amount will never be needed. When quantum memory storage methods are achieved (and don't only hold a photon for one second as now) then how much data do you think the new storage devices will hold?
Now you may say, but we will never need that much space. On the contrary, once quantum computing is achieved computer programs that are used to build/generate things from a set of rules (rather than programmers building constantly) applications will be made that could be infinitely huge in size, all at the click of a button. Of course, I am speaking of technology that we won't effectively be seeing for around twenty five years, but it will happen never the less.
Pentabytes will be considered dust in the wind.