Research analysts Jason Kraft and Chris Kwak examined a sample of 275 video games released over the last five years and analyzed the ratings data for those games. They determined that the correlation between ratings given to games by reviewers and the subsequent sales of those games is statistically insignificant. The chart above demonstrates this. On the Y-axis are unit sales. On the X-axis is the average rating of various titles.
In their own words: "After going through multiple scenarios, we believe a game rating, in most cases, is not a reliable tool for predicting game sales…. The next time someone suggests that a game will shine or fade based on a rating, we encourage the reader to take it with a grain of salt."
So what does affect sales? The best indicators of sales strength appear to be the strength of the publisher behind the game, the performance of prior iterations of the game (if it is a sequel) and the performance of the box-office sales of the movie version of the game.
Why? We're guessing it's because the hardcore gamers who tend to pay attention to ratings have very little impact overall on the financial performance of a game. Consumers who don't read gaming publications dominate as a percent of the gaming population.
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[Image credit: Game Ratings correlation chart from Susquehanna Financial Group analysts Jason Kraft and Chris Kwak]
