GTA worth $900 million; look to PSP for future of franchise
Research analysts Jason Kraft and
Chris Kwak have determined an answer to the question, "What's Grand Theft Auto worth?"
Parent-company Take-Two has been rocked by some troubles
of late. With rumors that the company is for sale, and that Elevation Partners is browsing
around, the question has been on a lot of minds lately--ours included. First, they anticipate only two next-gen GTA games hitting the consoles in the next five years, versus the three current-gen titles. In the same period, they say "there is potential for up to six PSP titles (five, post Liberty City Stories) over the next five years," continuing, "Take-Two could develop unique PSP games between major next-gen console releases or ports of existing titles. Shorter development cycles on PSP enable Take-Two to release PSP titles more frequently. The regularity with which Take-Two releases GTA titles on PSP will be critical to the franchise’s revenue growth in the next-gen cycle and underlies our revenue growth forecast."
They also suspect console releases will either be released on multiple platforms, to capitalize on the larger install-base, or console exclusivity would place Take-Two "in a position to demand cash in return... in either scenario, Take-Two wins." They conclude that the Grand Theft Auto franchise is currently worth about $900 million, or $10-$13 per share. Removing the $1.52 per share of cash reserves, the remainder of Take-Two is worth $1.71-$4.71 per share. Those numbers show GTA as being worth 62%-81% of the company's total value! Will potential buyers be wary of placing all their eggs in the GTA basket?
Send an email to kraftandkwak [at symbol] sig.com for a copy of the report.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Stu L Tissimus @ Feb 7th 2006 12:25PM
Just about any game brand's value will look like a flipped parabola - Once it reachers its' apex, it'll keep going down, down, down. And I get the feeling that's exactly what will happen with GTA now. I know many a GTA fanboy who just wasn't impressed by LCS.
Panadero @ Feb 7th 2006 12:27PM
And people claim Nintendo is a one note company..
Jay @ Feb 7th 2006 12:35PM
Wow, talk about milking.
nick @ Feb 7th 2006 12:36PM
Six on the PSP?! That would even be saturation on a system as worthwhile the DS. I mean, can you imagine playing six different iterations of Mario Kart on for the next half decade? No thanks.
What a poopy shoot the PSP has become.
Kamalot @ Feb 7th 2006 12:38PM
So, if they continue to milk the GTA series on the PSP they'll make some money? Did the analysts consider what would happen if people stopped being interested in GTA on the PSP or the PSP in general as they become more and more impressed with next-gen games?
mattbyrnes @ Feb 7th 2006 12:48PM
GTA is and always will be huge on consoles. Where else do you get 100 hours of gameplay, a great story, and a playground of destruction that by itself is a ton of fun. The next gen versions will finally look great (thanks PS2)
I look forward to the next iteration of GTA. I was always sad when I beat the other versions, I was sorry it was over.
The PSP versions coming that fast is funny. Sounds like there is not a lot of games on the PSP. That is the only way they could release them that quickly and make any profit.
Paul @ Feb 7th 2006 12:48PM
People complain about tons and tons of Mario games, but, excepting the Mario Party series, most Mario games released recently are completely different genres. Soccer, Tennis, Puzzle, Dance, RPG, Racing, Platformer, Fighting, Golf, altogether very different games. The only real duplication is the seperate handheld version. How many new Mario platformers have been released in 10 years? 2?
The GTA series is the same game, every time. It's a damn fine game. 3 every 5 years, perfect. That's the perfect rate of GTA games. Each one, while almost the exact same game with no difference other than missions, radio stations, plot, and a couple of new vehicles, really expands on the last game and is consistent fun, and games like San Andreas have a flavor that is just different enough to be appealing. But still it is basically the same gameplay, same objectives, and same old tricks each time.
But 6? 6 in the next 5 years? That is oversaturation. Wow. That is way too many. That's on the portables. The 2 for the next gen systems sounds about right. If Take Two has any brains they'll aim for a simultaneous X-box360 and PS3 release this time.
rockinrobbie @ Feb 7th 2006 12:52PM
Whats sad to me is that they want to start cranking out the GTA titles like madden. This is worse that Nintendo (in my opinion) in that I personally beleive Nintendo generates fairly HQ titles for its franchises (although we'll see come Hunters and Twilight, but I am stoked for both).
Look how many bad RE titles were cranked out before RE4 came through with a good one.
Mike @ Feb 7th 2006 1:25PM
I feel GTA is a fad. I can't imagine it getting any bigger than it did last generation (which is about as big as you can get). I feel a decline coming up (Tony Hawk, anyone?).
Corey @ Feb 7th 2006 1:30PM
GTA: LCS did well, but the buzz wasn't there. I have a feeling that with the every PSP-iteration of GTA, the brand value of the series will go down. This is a shame, and I hope that the next-gen editions can bring that value back.
Paul @ Feb 7th 2006 1:50PM
The ultimate GTA game would just map out an entire damn state, and a real state with real cities and landmarks and real businesses.
It'd have to be a smaller state, though. How about GTA: Alabama? That is ripe for fun.
Kamalot @ Feb 7th 2006 1:50PM
Nick...
"What a poopy shoot the PSP has become."
Thanks for making me laugh and shoot soda out of my nose. :-D
Kamalot @ Feb 7th 2006 1:55PM
"The PSP will elevate portable entertainment out of the handheld gaming ghetto," said Kaz Hirai, president of Sony CEA
http://www.1up.com/do/feature?cId=3142637
mwahaha @ Feb 7th 2006 3:11PM
I don't understand. GTA ports to the PSP are quick because the PS2 is really similar to the PSP. If the new GTA games are for PS3 and the 360 then porting them will take longer. Are they suggesting we'll see more sequels to the existing ports (more liberty city, vice city, and san andreas? 5 more of these?)? This blows! I'm ready a huge sony fanboy and I'm ready to ditch my PSP for a DS lite - as long as I can wifi the DS lite to my PS3.... come on haxxors!
MosquitoControl @ Feb 7th 2006 3:11PM
I actually wish Nintendo would milk Mario Kart a bit more.
Systems can handle at least 2. What I wouldn't give for a Mario Kart DD booster pack. Just give me 15-20 new tracks for $20, maybe a new item, maybe 2 new characters, maybe 2 new karts, it doesn't matter, I just want new tracks.
Mario Kart DD is great fun 3 or 4 player for a week, but then you get burnt out on the tracks and let it go for a few months.
Nintendo really should have put a budget sequel out with new tracks. Enough time has passed to allow that.
Anti-Hero @ Feb 7th 2006 7:15PM
In my opinion the GTA fanbase is in the consoles. I wouldn't be surprised if the six PSP titles were direct ports of the 3 PS2 games, and the 'soon'-to-be 3 PS3 games. It would be total overkill to have 8 new GTA games in the next 5 years, regardless of content. I also sincerly hope that GTA become a PS3 exclusive, anybody who only owns a PS2 can probably testify.
nick @ Feb 7th 2006 7:43PM
@#15, MosquitoControl
MKDS Booster Pack! Heck yeah. I'd even settle for a booster pack that let all of us get onto those other MKDS tracks that weren't included on the original online list. I so need new Mario Kart tracks. I'm effing sick of the ones I'm playing now.*
*Still love the game, tho'. Naturally.
mike @ Feb 7th 2006 7:44PM
And people claim Nintendo is a one note company
---
yeah.. right.. cuz.. they only have mario and.. er.. 30 yrs of experience.. and.. own the portabl---
never mind.. too easy
mkds_fan @ Feb 8th 2006 4:19AM
Glad im not alone... Im also of the opinion that Nintendo should milk MK alot more. What id like to see in the Revelution MK is the ENTIRE back library of tracks, ie SNES, N64,GBA, GC and DS PLUS new tracks. These to be all availible to played online in a live like portal. Probably will never happen but I can still dream!!!
vakerorokero @ Feb 8th 2006 11:05AM
"The PSP will elevate portable entertainment out of the handheld gaming ghetto," said Kaz Hirai, president of Sony CEA
Well, now it seems the ghetto chose the PSP a its home!! hahaha.
seriously, GTA will be continued of the PSP because they can't upgrade it. Period. They are going to try it for the Ps3 but for the time being at least the next 3 will be on the PSP first, if not all of them. They don't wanna do more polygons, they think their engine is perfect, that's why the last 3 games looked the same. isn't the PSP and Ps2 the same thing? If Rockstar doesn't wanna get on the PS3 yet, it must mean difficult programming or too complx for them. they are in it for the money, and are riding GTA to the end. This confirms that Rockstar is really a One trick Pony, like most people said after playing vice City. and they even put a price on the franchise! that's just a bad sign for industry experts. Funny, I always tought Megaman & Tomb Raider were going to be the casualties of sequelitis but add one more.