The New York Times assembles a mini case study examining disappointing sales around Activision's True Crime: New York City and concludes that the real reason that sales fell flat is not because hype surrounding the Xbox 360 undercut enthusiasm for newly old consoles, nor because the product itself is lacking (in fact, the game has earned weak ratings from critics, a tidbit the New York Times fails to mention). No--the real reason sales fell flat for True Crime is gamer fatigue a.k.a. sequelitis.
In the words of David Zucker, chief executive of Midway Games, as quoted by the Times, "How many Bond games do you need in the space of three years?"
In truth, the real source of the current sales doldrums is likely a combination of all three of the factors noted above. Surprise hits like Geometry Wars (Xbox 360), Guitar Hero (PS2), and Nintendogs (Nintendo DS) excluded, there are precious few poppin' fresh games on the market right now. That's sent most experienced gamers into a sort of holding pattern.
If the fatigue theory is in fact the predominant force affecting demand for games at this moment, this bodes well for both Nintendo (who have made "simplicity" the campaign promise of the Revolution) and for Microsoft (who have made delivery of lightweight games via Xbox Live Arcade a differentiating feature for the Xbox 360).
