Physical game media "will be ridiculous" says Moore of Microsoft

by Vladimir Cole { Feb 9th 2006 at 11:30PM }

Speaking at a panel discussion in Mountain View, California last night, Microsoft corporate VP Peter Moore prophesied the eventual death of physical game media, according to GameSpot, which quoted Moore as saying, "Let's be fair. Whether it's five, 10, 15, 20 years from now, the concept of driving to the store to buy a plastic disc with data on it and driving back and popping it in the drive will be ridiculous.... We'll tell our grandchildren that and they'll laugh at us."

We've blogged this exact point before, but it's nice to have a higher-up at Microsoft corroborate where we all know the industry is headed anyway. In a post entitled "Xbox 360 Trojan horse; retailers doomed" we wrote, "with more and more retailers moving towards the sale of used games, first- and third-party publishers are going to push the direct-to-consumer channel even harder."

Moore concedes that for now Microsoft is going to have to play nicey-nice with the retailers because they're still the predominant method of getting product into gamer homes. But their days are numbered. Heck, even Nintendo's planning to offer their entire back-catalog of games via download. Every one of those games was previously sold through the retail channel.

Given Best Buy's disastrous handling of the Xbox 360 launch, the day when we're all downloading content directly can't come soon enough.

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

the7thmagus @ Feb 9th 2006 11:43PM

Thank god! CDs are archaic. Just think... we already DL demos to our 360s... why not full versions?

logicdms @ Feb 9th 2006 11:46PM

this wont jus end the retail market but change how the industry works. there wont be a need for publishing. i read an article on the escapist a while back that talked about how direct sales from small companies to the consumer thru systems such as this would be more beneficial to the creators. im jus waitin for sony to handle their bizness wit their online network so microsoft and nintendo arent the only ones makin bank from this

MarkTAW @ Feb 9th 2006 11:47PM

But what will happen to all the news stories about people camped outside of Best Buy the night before some new game drops?

"Thousands of gamers spent the night at home. A lone, awaiting online delivery of the latest title, which was a bit slow at times due to the massive bandwidth suckage, but otherwise, it was just a bunch of nerds. At home. Alone. And in other news, due to a complete lack of exposure to sunlight, nerds are paler than ever..."

LJ @ Feb 9th 2006 11:50PM

The only problem I can see with game download is if something happens and you lose internet and to restart the download is to rebuy the game. I'll put my money on a steam-like delivery system for games in the future.

bd @ Feb 9th 2006 11:53PM

I see several problems with this. Examples:

1. Microsoft milking our wallets dry.
2. Every company paying ridiculous fees to Microsoft, but they won't do anything about it since that's where they get their money to keep working... Oh wait.
3. Having to carry stupid bulky drives to have a physical back-up of my stuff.

I'll choose optical media for back-up over bulky drives any day.

kagai @ Feb 9th 2006 11:57PM

They can wish for this all they want, but it will never happen. There will always be the need for a physical medium. I am not prepared to give up reselling my game to purchase a new game, or buying a used game to save money. I am sure a lot of people feel the same way.

Also, with a disc, I can play the game 5 years from now, when I get nostalgic...most likely it won't be around if it is downloaded. Also, I had to replace 3 Xboxes due to hard drive problems, so I have $500 worth of games on my hard drive and...whoops, there they go as my hard drive is fried for whatever reason...I don't think so.

Lastly, people always bring up Itunes or these little games on Xbox Live, to me there is a big difference between a $1 song or a $5 game. We are talking about $50-$60. And anyone that thinks your going to get a discount because there ain't no packaging, well you are just dreaming!!!

DJ @ Feb 9th 2006 11:59PM

I'll get excited about this when two things happen

1) Better 'broadband' is offered to the consumer (such as fiber optics)
2) Reasonably sized hard drives are available with back-up capability (at least 200 gb)

At the current state of technology downloadable games should be limited to small niche games and past-gen games.

bd @ Feb 10th 2006 12:02AM

holy shit... this retards are advocating for the dead of single player games, which is one of the reasons that actual gamers (you know, the ones that keep this industry in its toes in the first place) started gaming and keep gaming in the first place.

So if it is about "masturbation" or "multiplayer orgies", i'll choose masturbation. Hell, sometimes i'll even prefer masturbation to just one-on-one sex, so you idiots can just go to hell with your retarded propositions. NEXT

Pince @ Feb 10th 2006 12:04AM

I really dont see much of a good side to the subject of this post. I completely disagree. For one thing, I love going to stores and digging through low-price used games. Its fun; its kind of a hobby, and I feel better about owning a hard copy of a game rather than just having data on a computer or console. For example, I once downloaded a bunch of itunes music, at cost, and my laptop crashed and was completely wiped in the process. Also, if download is the only way to get the game, there will be no "previously played" game data to buy and play at a lower price. It gives the game maker much more control over their product, and I'm not saying that they dont deserve control, but once something like a game or any product enters the public sphere it would be nice if people could still borrow eachother a game, bring a game to a friend's house to play on their console, sell to someone else, or buy used. I think the transition of things like video games and music to purely digital forms cheapens the experience in a lot of ways, and I, personally, don't value the so-called benefits of such a transition...even if it is inevitable at some point.

Conn @ Feb 10th 2006 12:14AM

No. Please no. I dunno about you guys, but I like having something phsyical. And not to mention, the games are easier to carry around in cases, take up a lot of space so huge HDDs are needed, and there's no way to get a back-up if it crashes.

SilverSurfer @ Feb 10th 2006 12:17AM

Big whoop. I await the day I can download a PS18, Rev^32 or an Xbox28800 into my house.

Thats not possible you say? Well "download" wont really be an accurate term but the time will come when if I want a beer a new console and some games, I simply tell my toaster strudel oven to "Bring it bitch" and it shall be created and brought forth from the belly of the oven.

Keith @ Feb 10th 2006 12:30AM

Umm, personally, being a gamer I enjoy the discs. I like having a hard copy of the game and also its something to collect. Collecting files is boring. I need something I can hold. Physical media will always exist. It would be lame if it didnt

dotun.o @ Feb 10th 2006 12:48AM

Make no mistake about it: physical media will NEVER go away; it will always be needed, be it offline archiving, portability, etc. Offline hardware and online software will work hand-in-hand. True, in years to come, Internet will permeate society fully to a point - I predict - where we will no longer pay for what will be ubiquitous blazing-fast access (but still pay for purchases, of course) such that accessing online content will be literally anywhere and on the go, offline, physical storage will - if for no other reason - be a standby for the day servers crash or are hacked, much as online storage also stands by for the day the HD crashes, the CD scratches or memory card cracks in half.
Whether media delivery will be strictly online in the future I'm not so sure about, but I doubt people will ever feel entirely comfortable with all their data on a format that may stop responding to its own operating system suddenly, unless they have it safely stashed on a program-independent media. The potential insecurity of intabgible bits and bytes is still an issue - imagine if a manufacturer sold software online only and one day the server crashed! Slow-business day does not even begin to describe it! Sure, security and robustness will improve, but if someone can program it, then someone as knowledgeable can potentially override it.
What I do see happening is the end of ROM media - CD-ROM, DVD-ROM, media that is one-time writable. Media will increasingly (perhaps not exclusively) be delivered online, offline storing and archiving will work along with it.
On a related note, I don't forsee the end of paper and books either. Virtual books and "paper screens" are nice, but just not as versatile as flipping from page 8 to 96 back to 25 with a finger, and software incorporeity and consequently instability still rears its head.

Jordan @ Feb 10th 2006 1:00AM

hard drives, and storage servers are the way of the future. instead of having to even download something onto a hard disk, the company will have a hard drive hub and internet connections will fly so you can essentially stream your media to a temporary storage unit. yes a physical format will still be around, but it might be a physical hard drive. A good example of a trend someone in particular, with their awesome mini-disc fomat, missed the boat completely, when they thought that a "new innovative" disc format would be the way of the future, couple million ipods later, and a huge shift in music player market share, someone is still possibly not learning from previous mistakes, maybe not this generation, but possibly a generation down the road something similar could happen, and don't say it can't, because we all thought the walkman brand was the shiz a few years ago...

woodcubed @ Feb 10th 2006 1:07AM

Even with the 360 people will eventually run into a problem- space. Those drives are already pretty full after partitioning and all of the various software for backwards compatibility (stupid way to do it I think). I would bet good money that microsoft will have bigger drives available by the end of the year, especially when more games begin to require a hard drive. Actual physical copies of games are certainly more practical than having three or four hard drive "bricks" lying around. Now with the Nintendo Revolution, I gather that any dowloadable content will be downloadable to nice little memory cards, cards with god old non-volatile flash memory that don't cost an arm and a leg. That is a format I can live with and afford.

Game Artist @ Feb 10th 2006 1:09AM

You people arent thinking far enough.

Dont think local storage. Think bandwidth great enough that you stream the game from the central server as you play it. No downloads, no waiting. Doesnt matter if you have to replace your hardware, just enter your passcode and play again.

Second, devs can push non-physical media, and it is already slowly being accepted. If they choose not to release it retail, you will have no choice. Download or dont play. Look at the new bf2 booster packs for example. Online release only.

The whole download will be good for the consumer, but its by way of benefitting the industry. It should get piracy down with online verification of everything. It gets more money into the pockets of devs instead of middlemen. What this mean to you as a gamer? It means that devs will be able to take more chances with niche games and new titles. Hopefully less sequels. It also could me that prices wont keep up with inflation. (how long have games been $50? I can tell you its not getting cheaper to make them.)

Darth Pixel @ Feb 10th 2006 1:30AM

Unless the US government funds a broadband deployment program, the bandwidth to make this dream happen will never be available.

Telcos are quite happy to charge you $20-$60 for a slice of infrastructure they laid down 30 years ago.

epobirs @ Feb 10th 2006 2:18AM

Actually, the telcos are steadily deploying the kind of bandwith needed already. Verizon's FIOS initiative brings consumers a 15 Mb connection for under $50 a month. SBC/AT&T is making a similar effort and cable operators will have no choice but to follow suit. Once market penetration is high enough they'll be back to competing on price. Within the next ten years the majority of US households will access to 15-30 megabit connections for very reasonable prices and much higher speeds for those willing to pay.

This is more than adequate to download games with only a few minutes of buffering needed before play can begin and the rest is received in the background. Pricing will need to change but this will reflect the dramatic difference in price structure. For instance, the loss of the ability to resell a game once played to the owner's satisfaction must be compensated by lower pricing. Competent game publishers can make up the difference in volume, especially as things like episodic game releases become viable. If a game developer and publisher can start drawing revenue from the early chapters of a game while still working on the later content this makes for an immense change in how games are financed. This also means that players can sample the game at a deeper level than demos typically allow without laying out too much money before deciding to continue or drop it.

One way in which this approach allows for much lower pricing is the elimination of manufacturing royalties for game media. Currently, if Konami expects to have a big hit with next Castlevania they need to order a lot of units with each one incurring a royalty payment on top of the actual manufacturing charge. (And the production facility does run at a profit.) As a for instance, say the royalty is $3 per set of media for the game and Konami believes they need 500,000 units to meet initial demand before the next order can be fulfilled. (This less of a worry with optical discs but remains a major issue for mask ROM based systems like the DS.) So Konami has to lay out $1.5 million in advance without any guarantee the game is going to live up to expectations. If the game is only successful rather than a major hit Konami could find themselves with a substantial amount of stock that is unsellable without major discounts. If the game is a serious disappointment they could themselves not even making enough to cover the royalty payments.

With a pay per download scheme things are very difference. There is no need to manufacture any media with attendent royalty fees. Instead, the publisher only pays the platform provider from the revenue on actual sales. This reduces the initial outlay and risk for a small publisher hugely. It also makes big deep pockets publishers more willing to take chances on unique and off the wall games like 'Katamari Damacy' that might otherwise never get past the proposal stage.

Ownable media won't disappear but the situation will be much more like buying a season box set of a favorite TV series. A healthy business but a smaller customer base than the TV broadcasts of the same material. Just like box set buyers many may prefer to wait until an episodic product is completed, for the season or in entirety, before getting involved. By that time there will be plenty of assurance of the games quality or lack.

Smack042 @ Feb 10th 2006 2:34AM

Have we really gotten this lazy as a society? Its too much trouble to get up and go to the store? Anybody whos had a HD crash on them knows the anger of data loss and the requirement of a back up copy, so thats not a problem, Mp3s, Movies, Games, its a all the same, if you DL digital media just make your own backup! The real problem is getting to be how conveniantly can i inconveience myself? why should i seek social interaction when i can never leave the house? I can work from home, rent videos from home, have groceries delivered to me, pay all my bills online, chat with my friends in my virtual world, AND now i dont even have to go out to Gamestop for that brief 20 minutes and interact with others?!?! I pray that we always have pyhsical media, if for no other reason than to make you get your lazy ass off the couch.

MegaWatts @ Feb 10th 2006 5:47AM

Bring it bitch! from Silver Surfer

I think of all these people here, you have the right idea. I would like my Toaster to download some porn bitches. "Toaster Bitch - bring me a porn slut now!" And in front of me a porn slut will appear totally naked and totally into doing me right then and there.

My future involves a toaster bitch and porn sluts. Does yours?

Peter Moore better start thinking outside the box with this downloading content stuff. Hes thinking too narrow mindedly.

Gary @ Feb 10th 2006 6:52AM

The day of downloading content directly would be the day companies like Microsoft would rejoice at the death of consumers losing the advantage/right of buying and selling used games. For the writer of this article (Vladimir Cole) to say that, "...the day when we're all downloading content directly can't come soon enough." implies to me that he simply can't wait for Microsoft to completely control the cost and accessability of his games. Mr Cole is either affiliated with Microsoft or tremendously naive.

I plan to have my game collection 30 years from now. I enjoy box art and manual art. Physical games can increase in value. We can get a deal as a game ages. I don't intend or want to have hope that Microsoft or any other company will handle my game collection for me for 30 years.

Giving up the physical media of video games would eliminate the pride of ownership aspect of gaming culture. Future televisions may be programmable to download the latest virtual console and the latest game as well, but that would be for casual gamers. Will General Motors drive car enthusiasts around in their classic cars still garaged and maintained by GM? I can't see it happening.

Downloading has its place but it wont or at least shouldn't eliminate physical games. When the microwave oven was first introduced to households, the media surrounding it had it replacing the traditional oven. As we know, consumers enjoy the benefits of both.

Corporate america and Microsoft would love to propagandize the need for us all to make them irreplaceable keepers of our belongings.

It seems to me that this weblog is aiding their efforts in an early battle.

TK00 @ Feb 10th 2006 8:10AM

#19 has it exactly right. The day when all media is piped over the lines will be a dark day for consumers.

I'm so sick of hearing of hearing how used games are "killing the industry". Just becuase an industry isnt making as much money as it possibly can doesn't mean its being killed.

Dear gaming industry: After I buy something, and I dont want it anymore, I CAN SELL IT! Thats the way the world works, learn to live with it and stop bitching!

Vejadu @ Feb 10th 2006 9:53AM

The day gaming abandons physical media is the day I abandon gaming.

Paying $50 for a game, case, instructions etc. feels like I"m getting my money's worth. I have something to show for it, not just a file on my system.

If that day every comes, I'll be happy to revert to playing any of the thousands of games that are currently available on cartridge, CD or DVD format. There are countless games that I still haven't gotten around to playing, going all the way back to the NES.

I don't like the idea of not having the flexibility that a disc gives you. No renting from your local video store, no taking games to a friend's house, no selling or trading in games.

If your hard drive fails, you'll either be out of luck or have to redownload the game.

What about people who live in rural areas or place that don't have access to the broadband speeds necessary to download or stream these games? They'll be alienating all of them.

Just as emulation isn't the same thing as having a physical game collection, a collection of downloaded games isn't the same as the real thing.

Neal G @ Feb 10th 2006 9:56AM

TK00 is right. If you buy a game and can sell/trade; then the game is a better value at $50 or $60. Therefore I am willing to purchase more new titles .

The industry sees used game sales as lost sales.
What they don't seem to understand is that there are people like myself(prob the majority of gamers) who are able to buy more new games because we can trade and sell games we don't like or don't play anymore. And if most gamers are like me, then the selling and trading of used games doesn't cost the industry money (it actually helps drive the sales of new games).

livefromphiladelphia @ Feb 10th 2006 10:17AM

Like others said, the thought of downloading games or *shudders* streaming them isn't good if your a gamer. I can't think of how many times I've copped games only to think "WHY oh WHY did I do that". Perfect Dark 0 is a good example. I got that instead of Call Of Duty, but luckily I can just take it to gamecrazy or wherever and get $30 back. This can't exist with downloaded games, and definitely can't exist if you're streaming games.

Perhaps downloading and streaming will become the norm in PC gaming, and maybe on PC-like consoles like the Xbox line, but I don't see it becoming the standard for console games.

Why Best Buy? @ Feb 10th 2006 11:53AM

Why do people rail against Best Buy's handling of the 360 launch? A friend at MS said he blamed MS too.

How about this as a problem? MS screwed up by not making enough consoles. MS screwed up by launching a console on the very last day possible for an Xmas release.

Best Buy screwed up by deciding to store up their 360s until they had more than a handful to sell? So as to attract customers into the store near Xmas eve?

If 360 had been out for more than a couple weeks, BB couldn't have afforded to save up all their allocation until late in the Xmas season.

I have a friend who pre-ordered a 360 through EB. He still does not have it TO THIS DAY. This despite the fact that many EB stores have filled their backorders first-come, first served. Despite the fact that EB will sell you a 360 RIGHT NOW through Amazon.com.

This blame Best Buy thing is scaring me. It's becoming a meme.

It's not Best Buy. They only sold their units in the way they felt most advantageous to them. If MS had delivered enough units, then BB would have lost sales to other chains by holding their stock back. Instead, MS screwed up royally and created the situation where Best Buy (and others, especially eBayers) could make more profiteers by selling their units in unconventional ways.

Let's make sure history doesn't get rewritten here, MS did a poor job with the 360 launch. They rushed it too much. That led to poor supplies and a forced worldwide launch that stretched the poor supplies even further.

Firegryphon @ Feb 10th 2006 11:59AM

epobirs: I know a LOT of places in the US that do not have any form of home broadband available (yes you can talk the local telco into laying cable to your home at huge expense). Sure they are more rural or small town areas, but they do exist and I play online with friends who are stuck on modems still due to this.

rest: Assuming that buy once = download once is a fallacy. For the intermediate time between no downloads and all streaming, we don't know how they will handle redownloading of cached games. I think they are more likely to let you download the game but require that the user has to be the same, moving away from the "book" form of licensing as we are used to on games (aka Borland's original licensing scheme for software 1 person can have it open at a time per copy). I don't know how this affects multiplayer on the same console, but I'm sure that they will allow you to move your ID from one console to another in a somewhat secure fashion to eliminate the likelyhood of someone just saying they are someone else to play a game. In reference to the loss of cheap games, I don't think that will happen. If they have sufficient server space (which is easy) then there would be no reason NOT to offer games at a massive discount after the game isn't very popular. They could just leave them available for purchase and download in the "bargain basement bin" for as long as the servers are around. It is more likely that you will be able to get them for cheaper after they become unpopular since it will cost them very little to let you download one more copy. Think platinum hits on steroids.

SuicideNinja @ Feb 10th 2006 12:12PM

"The only problem I can see with game download is if something happens and you lose internet and to restart the download is to rebuy the game. "

They fixed that problem long ago, even when everybody was on dialup. If you've used a 360, you can lose connection, or cancel the download and it will start from where it left off. Firefox can do this as well if I remember correctly. Download management has improved a lot over the years.

Did you know that they can even update software (such as Windows) while it is running now? The idea is to remove the need for reboots.

Now if they could just allow Marketplace downloads to happen in the background....

Matthew @ Feb 10th 2006 12:18PM

Gee, if only I'd remembered to bring my crystal ball. There's an awful lot of speculation on this topic and yet the reality is we haven't the foggiest idea how things will play out in the near future.

On the technological front, even with providers offering greater bandwidth, remember that we are nowhere close to being able to do this. There would have to be significant infrastructure changes both on the client side, as well as the Internet backbone. If EVERYONE switched over to faster broadband connections we would kill the servers. Also, cable modem communication in particular has issues with bandwidth and the number of connections on your block. Now throw in some major industry challenges with wireless communication, it is starting to max out, and I don't think that we'll be seeing a community where everyone has a 100megabit internet in their homes any time soon. But everyone here should be prepared that something like that is coming, just don't get hung up on what it will look like.

My prediction (which could be completely incorrect) is that what has happened to music will probably happen to the other forms of media including movies and video games. For U.S. residents: Before companies even start thinking about distributing video games in electronic form only, they'll have to figure out what exactly you're purchasing. The property and possession rights in the U.S. are pretty strong, they were one of the founding principles of this country, so I'd have a hard time believing that if the industry moved to this format, that there wouldn't be some very legal challenges about how they market and sell product. In other words, from a legal standpoint, they simply can't take away your right to resell a game that you purchased in full, the U.S. Constitution protects against that. I'm sorry, I don't understand International and Local-Foreign Laws and Copyrights enough to give an opinion on other countries.

I've heard about the 'streaming' of games. I tried out a couple of services that do this already, although you pay for the service, not the game. Another point to consider is that the technology industry has gone back and forth between a Client/Server versus Thin-Client model for a while, and Thin-Client was first via Mainframes. A lot of technology LEADERS feel that at some point in the future, we won't have a need to build personal computers, home video game consoles, DVD players and the like. Anything that needs logic and a processor will keep a small one for display while everything runs on a server somewhere out there in the universe. I bring this up because Thin-Client models rarely have large and persistent storage space, or media devices like CD/DVD's at all. Thin-client also eliminates the need for massive bandwith from the Server to the Client although it might need quite a bit for Server to Server. So remember that technology shifts in other places may force everyone into going without a physical copy of a game.

So, for everyone that is saying they absolutely MUST have a CD, I have a question for you: "If there is a must-have title out that you could only download, would you still buy the game?" I'll bet most of you will answer yes. Remember that although we like to think we have some influence on the decisions of the developers and manufacturers, there are often times when we simply put up with things we don't like because there's little way around it. How many of us have bought every console, even if we didn't really like one or two of them, simply because there was a game we had to play?

In summary, I think that Mr. Moore's comments shouldn't be taken too seriously. While there might be indicators that physical media will disappear it is highly speculative and very few people (as in almost no one in the world) will ACCURATELY predict what our industry will look like in 5 years. And for the U.S. posters, we have some inalienable rights that would pose a great challenge to companies like Microsoft, Nintendo, Sony and EA if they tried to say that you can buy the game, but you can't sell it to someone else; this nation was BUILT on capitalism.

lunatech @ Feb 10th 2006 12:22PM

God some of you people can be so out of touch.

The reason why games cost so much is because of its distribution. Packaging, branding, all come with fees. Putting that stupid PS3 logo on a box has fees. The whole concept of the packaging and branding are what's taking money away from the developers, and gives it to jerk corporations that try to milk distribution systems with proprietary formats, packaging, and branding.

There is no doubt companies who facilitate the online distribution will make profit -- this is no diffrent from the stores.

What changes is the amount of middlement between you and your game. Online distribution reduces the middlement and corporate licensing nonesense and puts more dollars in the pockets of the people making your game.

Heck it might even reduce the prices of your games.

Grindstone @ Feb 10th 2006 12:52PM

Ugg. Near-sighted people all over the place.

Gary, you took Vladimr's quote out of context and then frivilously labeled him a MSoft minion or blatantly naive. "Given Best Buy's disastrous handling of the Xbox 360 launch, the day when we're all downloading content directly can't come soon enough." Looks like he said that, because of the Bestbuy and similar situations, he is really look forward to this happening to avoid all that in the future. You should not take this to mean he is vehemently pushing anyone's agenda. BTW, I highly doubt this is only Msoft's plan.

Game Artist was the best thus far at explaining why we are going in this direction(and bd, you almost got props for spelling "ridiculous" right, but post #8?!?! Weird. Not sure why anyone would brag about masterbating on joystiq, but you did.). You have to look at this as ownership, not downloaded content, but an account you have with the proprietor. The game/movie/music that you purchased is yours whenever you want. Computer crashes? House burnt down? No problem, still remember your account name and password? You get it all back. No longer want the game/movie/music, sell your account at your price to an eBay type marketplace. Then it is gone. This is why I do not see it being 'downloaded', as that would increase pirating. You sell your "lease" so to speak, you get your money back, purchase something else, and continue on.

Sure, there will still be a physical format, so long as people like my parents are around who still buy more VHS than DVDs (I gave them a DVD player 3 years ago, but the VHS is still king for them). Physical format will never leave, just as books will always be around (I can't read on a monitor for more than 3 hours straight, too much light, too close). But the point is that it will be more cost efficient for publishers. I'll tell you this, I would probably still buy some disc games, ones that I know will be good games. But others, such as racing games, I would have no problem purchasing online, then selling them in a year or two to whomever would purchase it for my price. In my opinion, this is better than going to Gamestop, losing $25 on resale for a 2 week old game.

The other point is that it is inevitable. I don't see it happening for a good 10 years, but it is coming. Not sure about the toaster bit, but never underestimate the porn industry, they are worse than Msoft. Just look at bd masterbating on Joystiq.

ProDownloadGuy @ Feb 10th 2006 12:58PM

Why does everyone assume that you can't sell the rights to the downloaded game? It would be far better for the consumer(gamer) to put the game up for sale in an ebay type auction over xbox live. That way the consumer gets all the profit for the games and (ebgames/gamestop) gets none. Maybe there is a small transaction fee by microsoft between 1% and 2% of the price, and the fee is waived if you have a gold membership.
The purchaser of the game is guaranteed that the game will work and the disc isn't all scratched up. For those of you who say microsoft/sony/nintendo and the publishers would never allow this, I say the gamers would demand this plus I think it would be illegal to deny this unless you just rented the games.
They could also allow a napster type subscription model for games. You pay $20 bucks a month for all the games you want.

Just think about it no more optical media that makes a ton of noise when it spins up to 12x. If your hard drive crashes you just re-download the games you purchased for free or they give you a means to backup your games. No more looking for lost discs or trying to find your game in a stack of 100 discs. Clutter eliminated shelf space freed up.
Consoles get cheaper because an optical drive is not necessary, but still could be an accessory. Manufacturers no longer have to worry about what type of storage medium they use because the data is digital and can be transfered on any type of medium for zero cost.
If you want to bring your games to your friend just pull out your hard drive and bring it or you should be able to login under your name and download the game and play it. Sharing logins should be limited to a certain amount of users and only one console can play the game at a time.
Paper manuals and artwork can be replaced with electronic versions. Interactivity could be integrated into the manuals, so instead of pictures and words you will see video demonstrations with voice.
It also has the benefit of eliminating all the waste associated with game discs and manuals.

There are many more benefits that I can list, but I think eliminating the disc is better for both publishers and gamers.

Jeff @ Feb 10th 2006 1:16PM

"Heck it might even reduce the prices of your games."

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

You were sort of right up to that point. Downloading does take one middleman out of the equation, but who does that really benefit? Not gamers. It benefits publishers, and it benefits manufacturers like Microsoft who can now charge fees that would otherwise go to the retailers. In a sense, you're just replacing one middleman with another. And if you really think the cost savings of ditching physical media will be passed on to consumers, then you don't know much about how business works. It's more likely that prices will go *up* as this is all spun as a new, high-tech way of procuring games faster and easier than before. But more probably, prices will stay the same and MS will just pocket the extra cash. There is zero chance of prices going down.

Anyway, put me in the camp of those that say "the day physical media goes away is the day I stop gaming". Yes, I realize things will be different in 20 years, but the bottom line is people *like* to own *things*. Saying physical game media will be "ridiculous" is no different than saying physical clothing or books will be "ridiculous". I mean you're looking at it the wrong way if that's what you think; people don't own these things because that's the only way they can get them. They don't look at all their books or inside their closets and say "goddamn, I wish I could just get rid of all these things!" Most people can't throw anything out if they try. They *like* having these things; it's a basic human desire, based on our hoarding instincts that helped us survive as we evolved millions of years ago. MS is extremely egotistical if they think they're going to change that.

Look at what's happening to the music industry. Coinciding with this big push into online distribution and a crippling of the CD medium with DRM has been a massive drop in profit and sales (even as online distribution has grown, total sales have fallen further). Now, the reasons for that are varied, but the bottom line is more people have stopped buying music altogether than have switched to buying it online. And the reason for that is that these people *want* to own a physical disc; they don't *want* to buy online. If they did, and if buying online was really more desirable, then online distribution would be more than making up for the drop in CD sales. That isn't happening.

The other thing this form of distribution does is commoditizing whatever's being offered. Going down to a game store or even ordering online and having a game shipped to you makes opening that game and popping it into your machine something of an event. When you can just scroll through a list and pick a game and be playing in five minutes, it's a lot less special. Do you really think this will help developers? Gamers' attention spans are going to drop to the point where a game's going to have to grab you within the first 30 seconds or its over - nobody's going to give a game a longer shot than that.

This push to online distribution is a self-imposed death sentence for any industry that tries it. It's yet another way MS is going to end up marginalizing their market, and they don't even realize it. They *could* still make a profit that way, because they'll be pulling in all sorts of fees that the physical stores get now, but they'll have far fewer users than they would have otherwise.

Regardless, if you think GameStop, BB, et. al are going down without a fight, you've got another thing coming. Look for them to make deals with publishers directly to get their games on physical media to satisfy the demand that will just never go away. What do you think's going to happen if someday GameStop makes a deal with EA that for the next 10 years they will have exclusive rights to distribute EA games? You think MS is going to design a system that doesn't allow for physical media? Ha!

K_G @ Feb 10th 2006 1:17PM

Actually luntech, as a % of the total development cost of game, packaging and distribution costs are pretty small. While not insignificant if a company prints and ships 250K and then only sells 45K of them, in that case the bigger issue is not that they printed so many but rather why did they spend millions to sell so few (ie sucky game). And the PS3 logo on the box doesn't cost anything...its a part of the 'service' when you pay your license fee to publish your PS3 game, which will be still there regardless of game media used.

And while the costs of online distribution are lower, so far most publishers of all kinds of media product seem extremely reluctant to price lower for online distribution (either because they are greedy or don't want to piss off their retailers selling the physical item)...how much cheaper was downloaded Half Life 2 vs buying it in the store?...how much cheaper are audio books on itunes vs buying a CD in a book store? There might be some benefits to selling a single level of game for a low price but if itunes is any example, this will result in lower overall sales since the game industry is very much an album based economy and not a singles based economy.

Yes it could happen in some arenas fairly soon (such as the re-release of dreamcast games for download on the 360), but there are many of issues (such as some people like buying 'things' when they give gifts and that a large number of games are not bought by the actual user but for their children, ect) that need to be addressed first

you're out of touch @ Feb 10th 2006 1:27PM

Lunatech, I don't get your responses. Sending games over the net isn't going to reduce fees for licensing. Sony or MS isn't going to say "well, there's no plastic media involved? No printing of logos on boxes? Here's a discount". And the companies who control the licensed properties (King Kong) aren't going to take a cut in their fees either.

Online distribution will reduce milking due to "proprietary formats"? Online is the ultimate online format. A 360 won't run a game unless it is digitally signed. You cannot produce a game for 360 without going through MS.

Online distribution does eliminate retail store markup. But honestly, if I look for good deals, I can eliminate that too. You can preorder the $60 Top Spin 2 for Xbox 360 from EB at $40 right now. They basically eliminated all their markup. With digital distribution, there will be only one company you can buy it from. Think they'll discount a lot? Look at Half-Life 2. It is often cheaper on CD than for direct download.

Xtrm Liability @ Feb 10th 2006 2:02PM

It's kind of naive to think this won't happen. We're already in the first stages of downloadable content. Those tiny USB storage devises are able to hold huge amounts of data, just imagine how much more in 10 years from now. I don't know about you but I would much rather use a USB storage to transfer and swap files rather than burn it to a disk or have to re-write the burn. Yes I can see the days of CD, DVD disks come to an end. Take my Cable box with a DVR for example; it can hold up to 800 hours of high Def quality plus my cable supplier stores all previous shows, TV season series, and movies from which I can stream from their servers in High Def. It's the most convenient and coolest thing I have ever seen from a cable standpoint. Yes I believe the days of CD, DVD, HD-DVD, Blu-Ray's extinction lurks around the corner. Whether you agree or disagree, It's pretty evident the inevitable will come.

ray @ Feb 10th 2006 3:05PM

This is a mixed arguement, because this can go both ways. Each has some pros & cons.

But here is the maine reason why we wont ever see this happen. What happens when you want to buy a new controller... or buy the latest system... were do you go? To the gamestore right? Well there wouldnt be gamestores if they werent selling any games! They wouldnt have a shop with just accesories would they? And what happens if there is a local weather problem and you cant get on the server because its down.. then
you cant play. Or what if people dont have a fast connection what are they to do? Thats why this wont ever see the light of day^

But if they do find a way to manage this they have to find a way to recover lost data. Eventually your sytem will crash and then you have the possibility of losing your data. What they could do though is tie game purchases to credit card numbers, so when you lose it just put in your credit card number and then you can just re-download the games. If they just gave out unique download id #s people could just give that number out, but with credit cards people arent that dumb.

Jordan @ Feb 10th 2006 5:23PM

Games for PC are already cheaper when you download them, case in point STEAM!!! If any of you play half life 2, you know, you don't have to have the disk in, you can also purchase new games from Steam, that they specifically say are CHEAPER to download, than purchase in the store somewhere around $5 to $10 cheaper to be precise. If you don't believe it's going to shift to a download world, where you stream things, how many of you all honestly thought music CDs and stuff like that would be a way of the past, yes CDs sale still today, but they are slowly being phased out with things like iTunes, you own the music, if you lose it from your puter, their system still sees that you own it, etc. and you can download it again later, or even burn it to a disk if you'd like to, i can completely see a games company even putting a burner into a system or something where you, for the sake of piece of mind, can burn a physical copy of the game. I'm a telecom major, and that's what my professors keep screaming at me, "bits are bits", you can turn those bits into downloads, flash drives, hard drives, media discs etc., but everything is one in the same today with the expanse of digital technology...

epobirs @ Feb 10th 2006 6:01PM

Firegryphon, if you look at the demographics of what place cannot receive broadband at this point in time it becomes pretty apparent that they have a miniscule influence on software distribution trends. The same factors that make telcos and cable MSOs disinclined to pull fiber out there also determines those home lack of influence. In terms of acreage they may represent large sections of land but in terms of paying customers they represent a small minority compared to the urban and suburban areas that by and large are well served. Even those folks out in the boonies are increasingly being offered long distance wireless option for fast connections.

There are still plenty of Americans who cannot get cable TV and lack a clear shot at southern sky so they can point a satellite dish. Does this mean HBO shouldn't have content exclusively for those consumer who have access to HBO? The ten of millions of homes with access to HBO make the choice clear.

As I said, ownable prerecorded media won't cease to exist but you will pay more. For TV viewing DVD box sets offer popular shows like those on HBO to those who have means to access the channel. (VOD at the right price would have a severe impact on those sales for those with good connections.) Jeff's silly argument that there is some special aesthetic quality to opening a box and inserting a disc, as well as his claim that quick access will make it too hard to choose a game suggests that he must find it terribly difficult to figure what TV shows he wants to watch. This is just silly. Pay-per-view TV is already a huge business and expanding with VOD. People already have immense choices from cable and satellite yet on Wednesday nights at 9 PM a major portion of them have no difficulty in knowing they want to select 'Lost' on ABC. Many of them only began watching after reviews and word of mouth caught their interest. How would it be any different with interactive software as opposed to non-interactive?

Online distribution is inevitable. There will be many stumbles along the way but eventually the high speed connection available to most consumers in developed nations will be the distribution medium in a way that serves the desires both of publishers and consumers to create a larger market with a greater range of choices.

Lekko @ Feb 10th 2006 6:19PM

I just feel sorry for all those employees that will loose their jobs if it fully switches over. Your local gamestores would disappear, not to mention the factories that press the games, the shipping routes.. Sure you could download the game for $50, but if you work at gamecrazy or EB or a disc pressing place, you won't have a job.

The ZeroCorpse @ Feb 10th 2006 11:00PM

All I have to say is I'm SICK of this internet B.S. about Best Buy having a "disastrous" XBox 360 launch. A few people had bad experiences, but most people got what they came for, and were well taken care of by Best Buy employees. My boss, head of the Media Department, actually camped out for 14 hours with all the customers, and the store sprung for hot cocoa and hamburgers. We didn't have to.

And why does nobody mention the REAL disaster? The 360 launch at GameStop and EBGames was horrible. They WAY overbooked, and had to tell people who had put all their money down months earlier that they wouldn't get a 360 until March. Our local GameStops told people that they would be "guaranteed" a 360 on launch day if they paid it off prior to launch. In the end, on launch day they only got a dozen units and had to give them to the first people on the list. Everybody else had to wait, and GameStop is STILL seeing severe shortages.

Meanwhile, at Best Buy we're getting weekly shipments, and we present them on a first-come, first-served basis. No empty promises. No forced bundles like Toys-R-Us or Target stores. No pressure to buy the replacement plan (although some people are glad that they did buy it, since it was better than the MS Extended Warranty, and cost $10 less).

And hey- Even if you want to say some people had a bad time at retail, switching to a download system isn't going to stop you from having to go to Best Buy or some other retail chain. Unless there's a technology that lets you download your console and accessories, you'll be in the stores.

As usual, when it comes to the launch, only the noisy brats are getting their story heard. All the happy customers who got exactly what they wanted and had a great time on launch day are ignored or unheard while the guy who was last in line complains that he didn't get there soon enough and that the retail employees should have worked overnight to make sure that he didn't get at the back of the line. Boo hoo. Use your brain, and you won't do stupid things and have to blame people who work for peanuts dealing with your attitude.

Gary @ Feb 11th 2006 1:32AM

My apologies to Vladimir Cole. I thought I was cool enough to write a post that was free of unfocused anger but I got some venom on Vladimir. Sorry.

I have anger because it seems to me that there's an awful lot of people singing the praises of the Xbox 360. I plan to get all of the new consoles as I have done in the past but I think the 360 will have the most sterile lineup of the three consoles (as was the case for the original XBOX). Sure, I've got Gaiden, Riddick and Halo, but the roster pales in originality to the Playstation and even the Gamecube.

The 360 is trying to force a pc style money treadmill down console players throats. I used to play pc games exclusively until I saw the brilliance of the consoles and their long shelf life, as compared to expensive video cards. In five years I spent more than $600.00 in pc upgrades to keep playing what was new. I bought all of the consoles in their sophmore season for less than that combined.

This generation of consoles is designed to play games, period. It sould stay that way to best benefit us as consumers. Microsoft axed its first console at least a year early. That does not benefit me or you. We lost a whole year of not having to buy Microsoft hardware. They've abandoned the original Xbox. That was money out of our pockets.

Microsoft is greedy, with the latest example being that Halo 2 being Vista only. Because I love video games I'll look the other way when Microsoft gives me the finger and pinches my wallet. However, I'm blown away when a fellow gamer tells me that they can't wait fot it to happen.

gamer1 @ Feb 11th 2006 5:47AM

Nah� Microsoft is bringing innovation to the game industry just as Sony and Nintendo are. I don�t think that game downloads will replace game distribution as it will compliment it. It�s a matter of choice, really. There will always be those people who like to buy games at stores, and neither Microsoft nor any other game company will deny them of that. Especially with the increased demand for used games, game stores will always have games to sell.

What I think we may be seeing at retailers in the future, to compliment online game sales, are more sales of gift cards for online purchase points. Think about it� around Christmas time, retailers get flooded with customers. There is no way that game companies are going to ignore this demographic of consumers. Instead, if online purchases become the mainstream, gamers will be asking for online purchase points instead of games. Nobody wants a game that they already have, or worse, something that they didn�t want. With online purchase points, gamers can choose whatever they want when they purchase it online. Also, if they�re waiting for a new game to come out, they can just save their points till then. Retailers can still make lots of money through this business plan. It sounds like a better system, if you ask me.

Still, physical media will not become obsolete. There are so many different variables that require the need for physical media. It is also the reason for why many of us still have CDs and CD players. Physical media widens the consumer range to people who don�t have PC technologies readily available. And who are we to deny these people of playing the latest and greatest games? Just like how online technologies are convenient, physical media is convenient as well. They will compliment each other, but neither will be replaced.

Achilles @ Feb 12th 2006 5:25PM

I am very interested in the piracy & counterfeiting aspect of this discussion. I have a strong opinion as to what will happen to content providers (not just games software) if they take the leap and pipe their stuff instead of package it. I would like to hear any views you good people might have. Will the content providers be better off or worse?