Nintendo Revolution prediction: second console of choice

by Vladimir Cole { Mar 8th 2006 at 2:00PM }

We're here at the Games Marketing Conference in San Francisco. The first session consisted of a trends overview, but there were some good nuggets of truth (and opinion) bandied about, including a warning by Michael Pachter, the oft-quoted managing director of research at Wedbush Morgan Securities.

Pachter warned, "People have written off the Revolution and that's foolish."

The meat of his argument comes down to the fact that there will be few killer exclusives on the Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3. The Grand Theft Auto series that was so instrumental in selling the PlayStation 2 will be available on both Xbox 360 and PS3. Meanwhile, Microsoft has little unique leverage either: "Microsoft has one game now: it's Halo, and everything else sucks," he said. Pachter predicted that households today that own both a PS2 and an Xbox will be more likely to own either an Xbox 360 or a PlayStation 3 and a Nintendo Revolution as Nintendo's first-party development generates interest in that console and its unique gameplay.

End result? "You're going to see the Revolution as the second console of choice in the household," Pachter concluded. This corroborates our own findings when we polled you (our readers) to ask about your own purchase intentions.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)

mandarin @ Mar 8th 2006 2:15PM

He's right, I probably would expect most will buy the Revolution because of pricing...

Angus Hossack @ Mar 8th 2006 2:15PM

Yeah, this makes perfect sense. Most of the 'killer' apps are available for both xbox and ps and even nintendo. Nintendo does have the most unique games and with thier new style controller anything could happen.

Gus

zero2dash @ Mar 8th 2006 2:18PM

I know I'm not the only one who's the opposite of this.

Revolution = primary

Xbox 360 or Ps3 = secondary
Whichever of the two offers better games will be bought as secondary.

Owns @ Mar 8th 2006 2:19PM

Well, D U H.

How much do these people get paid?

Brian @ Mar 8th 2006 2:19PM

That's the same argument they made for the Gamecube, how'd that work out?

taddpoll @ Mar 8th 2006 2:20PM

Mine will be #1.

All else is #2 or lower.

SiN ViCiOuS @ Mar 8th 2006 2:21PM

Ahhhh yeah... I suppose Gears of War sucks also... Mass effect sucks also... and so will Huxley! This guy is nuts!

Mullinator @ Mar 8th 2006 2:21PM

I agree with him completely on his opinions about how the Revolution will do and how the PS3 and 360 will do. He is however being a little too negative when it comes to the PS3 and 360... Especially the 360.

It has been said many times in the past: A PS3 for half the world, an Xbox 360 for the other, and a Revolution for everyone.

AlloyNES @ Mar 8th 2006 2:22PM

zero2dash--

I, too, am like you. Revolution is my primary. And PS3 will be my secondary. I don't like Halo. And Sony will have more exclusives that are worth playing than Microsoft. But, I'm not going to think about getting a PS3 until I get my hands on a Rev.

Observer @ Mar 8th 2006 2:23PM

So essentially if Nintendo plays its cards right, it'll have the largest marketshare in the next generation. Time to start buying stock I suppose?

Mike @ Mar 8th 2006 2:27PM

It's not so much about the hardware... it's about the games!

Nintendo almost always delivers, but I still have to question the choice of making their own hardware rather than developing for market-leading consoles like Xbox360 and PS2.

If it weren't for Nintendo's rabid fanbase in Japan, they'd be looking for a buyer right about now.

Todd @ Mar 8th 2006 2:28PM

With MS and Sony going at each other this past E3 it has created the public perception of a fight between the two. Between the cries of "no, our hardware is more powerful" most people have been choosing sides. Only a very small amount of people are saying that they want both. If you buy one why would you buy it's mortal enemy too? I think this has some to do with why Sony is being quiet right now. They've finally realized that they can spout data and show pre-rendered video all they want, but if they can't show actual gameplay that looks a lot better than what MS is doing then nobody is going to believe them. There will always be doubt that what they are offering is on par or, at most, slightly better than the 360. I think Nintendo took the best route in telling people that their specs won't matter at all once you give the Revolution a try. Sony & MS can't say that now or they'll end up looking like a fool.

Isaiah Lopez @ Mar 8th 2006 2:28PM

I think Revolution will be my primary console, PS3 being secondary.

AlloyNES @ Mar 8th 2006 2:29PM

QUOTE: "6. Ahhhh yeah... I suppose Gears of War sucks also... Mass effect sucks also... and so will Huxley! This guy is nuts!"

Of the games you mentioned, I am interested in none of the above. Does that make me nuts, too?

masterpaul @ Mar 8th 2006 2:30PM

Revolution is my primary. And a PC is my secondery. Take that PS3 and Xbox 360!.

Nobody is going to buy a 360 after awhile. Its happening now, sales are decreasing and nothing can stop it. Just like a Dreamcast.

Ken @ Mar 8th 2006 2:30PM

My household will contain both a PS3 and a Revolution, just we now have a PSP and a DS. I own the Sony products, while my son owns the Nintendo. Everyone gets along and shares just fine.

The only thing in the article I disagree with is this:

"The Grand Theft Auto series that was so instrumental in selling the PlayStation 2 will be available on both Xbox 360 and PS3."

That great, really. I think both systems need the competition. However, I believe it is the Final Fantasy titles that make the difference, and so far FF has only been announced for the PS3. Also, if the endless FFVII remake rumors turn out to be true, then I doubt GTA being multiplatform is going to make the slightest bit of difference.

Spartacus @ Mar 8th 2006 2:34PM

The speaker lost all creibility when he said, "Microsoft has one game now: it's Halo, and everything else sucks." He obviously hasn't played an Xbox. Even Sony has a handful of QUALITY exclusive titles, though it is true there will be less on the PS3. I mean, I agree that the Rev won't do too bad, but let's remember that this arguement COULD be made for the GameCube right now. The fact is that Nintendo has below average 3rd party support right now and it looks like that trend could continue. Due to the capabilities of the Revolution, many, if not most, 3rd party titles won't be offered to Rev owners. Developers may opt to offer a few Rev only titles to take advantage of the controller, but unless Nintendo ends up being #1 in sales next generation, the majority of titles will be for the 360 and PS3. The question is whether or not 1st party exclusives and the possibly meager 3rd party offerings will compensate for this.

Either way, this guy sounds pretty biased. You can't tell me that Halo is the only good game on Xbox. Ninja Gaiden, KOTOR, Jade Empire, Fable, PGR1 and 2 and the Mech Assault games are just a few offerings off the top of my head that definitely qualify as quality exclusives.

AlloyNES @ Mar 8th 2006 2:35PM

QUOTE: "13. However, I believe it is the Final Fantasy titles that make the difference, and so far FF has only been announced for the PS3. Also, if the endless FFVII remake rumors turn out to be true, then I doubt GTA being multiplatform is going to make the slightest bit of difference."

I'm finally gonna ask this question: Am I the only one in the world who doesn't like the Final Fantasy games? Don't get me wrong, I've played games since I was 5 (1987), and have got my hands on most of the FF titles. However, they don't float my boat. I mean really, am I the only one?

groovyguy @ Mar 8th 2006 2:41PM

Let me show you why he is right about Halo and Halo 2. It's not that the games are necessarily bad (even though there are a lot of crappy ones out there for all systems), it's the sales that he is talking about. Check out this great article on ZogDog forums. It's about the recently released software sales charts.

You'll notice that Nintendo is completely dominant. Nintendo sells more software per console then anybody else. Varian tries to explain why Nintendo actually consistently wins console wars, not loses them. Hardware is hard to track (sony 100 million console mark!? LOL), but software is much easier. I'll let him explain, here is the link.

http://theboard.zogdog.com/index.php?showtopic=10681

B-Dizzle @ Mar 8th 2006 2:41PM

Theres a lot that is to be seen. Like how much the PS3 is, or how good the Revolution technology (in general) is, or of course, the games. As things stand right now, I think this guys right; the big console gamers are gonna get one of the Big 2 AND the Revolution. But the other thing to consider is that Nintendo will scoop up some people who don't even have a console right now, (i.e those who want to play the games from their childhood), or those who have consoles now but don't want to pay $500 for a decent setup.

AlloyNES @ Mar 8th 2006 2:42PM

QUOTE: "14. You can't tell me that Halo is the only good game on Xbox. Ninja Gaiden, KOTOR, Jade Empire, Fable, PGR1 and 2 and the Mech Assault games are just a few offerings off the top of my head that definitely qualify as quality exclusives."

Okay. I'm now feeling like a fool. I don't even like those games this poster listed. I know I've played games like those before. They weren't much. So why would a shineir, prettier version be any better?

*GASP* I know! Since I don't like these "quality" titles, I must be a Nintendo Fanboy. Fer shame~

PsyClerk @ Mar 8th 2006 2:43PM

I'd agree with this if Nintendo hadn't flubbed the Gamecube so badly. The Big N has a lot to prove before I'll even consider buying a Revolution. They didn't have many (any?) exclusive games that defined this generation IMO.

Regardless, I don't think I'd put much faith in someone who thinks the PS2 revolves around GTA and the Xbox revolves around Halo. Fanboys don't make good consultants.

Morder @ Mar 8th 2006 2:50PM

The Revolution will be my ONLY console

I hate Final Fantasy as well, Dragon Quest all the way, at least the ones on the Nintendo system. I wish they would bring out DQVIII for the Revolution or the GC

sizcoz @ Mar 8th 2006 2:50PM

It's all about perception, and good advertising, for example the gamecube is considered a toy here in the uk, thus there is next to no retail space given to it in comparison to the other consoles, and the UK is driven by the latest trend, after all it's usually the parents that decide which console to buy there children with the intention of playing the games themselves. If the revolution can get a good start and good retail space, making money for the retailers then it stands a good chance, the people in the uk are very much advert driven, so if the tv saturation is good and especially on the ...ITV... channel which has a high percentage of the population watching (sometimes over 20 million people), and they associate with some good sponsorship, uk is football mad, then maybe with the new controller/remote and free online access they stand a chance to gain that initial mommentum which is so important with the birth of a new console.
I also think one of the problems in the past was the quality of there own games was like a double edged sword, meaning that Nintendo produce games of such depth and quality that when another developer/publisher produced a game it flopped because of not maintaining the high standards that Nintendo had set, thus making it not financially viable or too risky to develop for.

http://www.nintendoinfo.com

bd @ Mar 8th 2006 2:51PM

Umm, stop mentioning the relatively good (or not so good) titles for Xbox 1. He was talking about 360 and it has nothing like Halo. Gears of War? I mean, is FPS the only thing you like?

You should have mentioned Blue Dragon, Enchant Arm, 99 Nights, Oblivion and Lost Odyssey. Then again, we don't even know if they are going to be any good anyway.

I'm getting a revolution as a primary anyway. Thank goodness PS3 has full backwards compatibility, in case it ends up being a 360.

AcroGuido @ Mar 8th 2006 2:52PM

He's wrong! I know that I am DEFINITELY buying a Revolution. I might get either a PS3 or an Xbox 360, but not sure. So that would mean the PS3 or Xbox 360 will be my second console and Revolution will be the first.

Ken @ Mar 8th 2006 2:54PM

"I'm finally gonna ask this question: Am I the only one in the world who doesn't like the Final Fantasy games? Don't get me wrong, I've played games since I was 5 (1987), and have got my hands on most of the FF titles. However, they don't float my boat. I mean really, am I the only one?"

Nah, there are plenty of people who don't care for the series, but that can be said for any game, can't it?

I enjoy the Final Fantasy series because of how I started playing it. The summer in which Final Fantasy VI (called II here) was released for the SNES, I was staying with my grandparents for the summer. While all the other kids were out swimming in the pool and having a great time, I was bedridden with the flu. After a few days, my grandmother went to the toystore and asked for a game that would take me a long time to complete and she was recommended the formentioned FF title. I took me a week to get over that flu, but I don't remember feeling bad, I just recall falling in love with the game. I've been hooked on the series ever since.

So now, I buy whatever system Square-Enix decides to support the most. It's pretty simple for me, I don't have to choose a system to be fanboyish to, I chose a developer instead.

taddpoll @ Mar 8th 2006 2:54PM

Regardless if he's biased or not. You as well as others know that the X-box has some other good games. However, that still doesn't take away from the fact that the Rev is being positioned as an "and" machine.

This is a new strategy for console makers, and one that is probably going to pay off for Nintendo.

I have nothing against MS or Sony. There are enough games on both of those systems to justify a purchase. I will only be getting a Rev. But my friends and brother will definitely be getting a Rev and something else.

This isn't a threat to MS or Sony. They are only a threat to each other. Nintendo hopes to offer an alternitive to the status quo, that's all. Besides, who cares if some Joe Blow says something you don't like. These strategies have been in place for quite some time and they'll likely not change.

Buy what you want. But also note that there is something brand spankin new coming, and it is right around the corner. It will be offered to you at a low price and it'll be up to you to try it or not. It's that simple

RP @ Mar 8th 2006 2:54PM

Spartacus: "I agree that the Rev won't do too bad, but let's remember that this arguement COULD be made for the GameCube right now"

Not really. There wasn't really any differentiation between the GC and other platforms, other than the games. This is obviously not true of the Revolution.

SP @ Mar 8th 2006 3:00PM

"Everybody's getting a revolution." - Diggnation

casey chesnut @ Mar 8th 2006 3:02PM

(this comment is a bit dramatized) i'm an xbox 360 owner ... and the gamerscore is kind of addicting. why would i want to play a game on another console if it doesn't help out my gamerscore? even though the best of platinum hits can be picked up for $10 now (some of them being compatible with the 360), they don't go towards gamescore ... so what's the point? i suspect that there will be other 360 owners that feel the same

Matthew @ Mar 8th 2006 3:02PM

Revolution will be my primary system, I'll look at PS2 or 360 as potential secondary systems. The reason is simple. I feel people complicate things way too much, they take a simple reason and extrapolate on it. Why do I want the Revolution? Because it's different. And because it's different, it interests me. The 360 and PS3 I'm sure are and will be great systems, it's just that what they're offering looks very similar to what we already have. Peace out!

Joey @ Mar 8th 2006 3:05PM

we're number two! we're number two!

master paul @ Mar 8th 2006 3:06PM

"The question [for the revolution] is whether or not 1st party exclusives and the possibly meager 3rd party offerings will compensate for this."

Who gives! We have so many little studios developing exclusive titles for Revolution.

Maxi @ Mar 8th 2006 3:07PM

'So now, I buy whatever system Square-Enix decides to support the most. It's pretty simple for me, I don't have to choose a system to be fanboyish to, I chose a developer instead.'

Same here, I just love SE games. But in this war I have a slight problem: Blue Dragon, which is being designed by the Chrono Trigger for Xbox 360, the console I did not want to buy. Still PS3 will have far more JRPGs (Final Fantasy XIII, Shadow Hearts X, Dragon Quest X etc etc) and good beat em ups (eg Tekken 6, Soul Calibur 4) which are the only reason I play console games really.

I'll probably end up getting all 3 in the end, but starting out I'll get both a PS3 and Revo, because in the end I only really get the PS3 for JRPGS, but I'd get the revo for Nintendo, and there are a hell of a lot of titles that are going to be going for revo (next gen zelda, mario, SSBR etc).

Rant out :p

Varian @ Mar 8th 2006 3:08PM

Anyone who says Revolution will sell well because it will be the 'second console' doesn't know what they are talking about. They also don't have a clue as to why the DS was successful.

The Revolution's strategy, as was the DS's, is to primarily target the lapsed gamer as well as those who may not even normally play games. Consider all the previous consoles released and all the gamers that have moved on. The Atari Generation, the 8 bit generation, the 16 bit generation, and so on. I fall into the category of gamers who left gaming after the 16 bit generation. Gaming just got boring. But it was the DS that brought me back.

Lapsed gamers are in all three of the major markets (Japan, America, and Europe) but they are most located in Japan. This is why the DS has been very phenomenal there.

Publishers need to grasp that there is a huge majority of people out there willing to play games. There are tons of women playing games on Yahoo. There are many jaded gamers who got bored with the higher price and macho silliness games are going. Those who did not like Halo 1 or 2 will not buy Halo 3. Those who did not like GTA 3 are not going to like GTA 4. Like the movie industry's falling sales, the games industry keeps targeting that same young male demographic with endless 'blockbuster' titles forgetting that a whole lot of people want to watch new fresh movies, just as they want to play new fresh games.

Sony and Microsoft have a single archilles hill: they are not capable of growing the gaming market. All they know how to do is put out more powerful hardware that displays prettier images with some convergence technologies ("our console can play movies and music too!"). They do not know how to energize a depressed market (as Nintendo did in America after the crash). They do not know to create markets (as Nintendo invented the portable handheld market with Gameboy as well as 'old people gaming' with Brain Trainer or 'girl games' with Animal Crossing and Nintendogs). The 'hit' games on Sony and Microsoft's machines are confined to one demographic.

This is why the Revolution will be the 'primary' console of most of its buyers. Yes, it may be the 'secondary' console to some current hardcore gamers. But that market no longer matters in the long run. To those girls playing Nintendogs or elderly playing Brain Training, and to the Nintendo fanbase of course, the Revolution will be primary. And do not forget about us, the lapsed gamers. We are, as Tycho calls, the 'Renaissance Gamers', and we demand a revolution.

Thomas Crymes @ Mar 8th 2006 3:10PM

There is a difference between not being interested in a game, and saying it sucks.

Fanboys generally think that anything they are not interested in sucks.

I think the video game will be divided between 360 and PS3 owners and the Revolution will straddle the two. Sounds logical. It's about price. If the Xbox 360 and PS3 were $200 each, I'd probably own both. At $400 and $500+? one will have to do, and since I'm an impatient bastard, there is really no competition.

You can't go wrong with Sony or Microsoft's offerings, but if you don't particularly care for Nintendo games, I'm guessing you will stay away from Revolution, because the Rev will primarily be a first party machine.

Right now, I'm not convinced that the new Nintendo controller will be Jesus and Santa Claus and stale marshmallows combined. (mmmm how I love my stale marshmallows).

msisthedeathofgaming @ Mar 8th 2006 3:12PM

Anyone remember way back when bungie was creating this in depth tribe killer based around innovative vehicular combat and team gameplay?

Microsoft got a hold of it and removed all of the innovation and pushed it out a very generic fps called Halo with no innovations at all.

Microsoft's own Peter Moore has already admitted that they knew and are at fault for the slipping of sales of titles right now by bringing out the 360. The games are too expensive to develop for and since only successful franchises can be developed for that's all we see. You don't need a market analyst to tell you this.

They have no exclusive, even calling Halo an exclusive is a stretch since the game will make it to pcs regardless.

My guess is that's it's always been Microsoft's aim to crash the market ever since they entered the arena. Create an enviroment hostile to innovation therefore hostile to success and you create an enviroment that other competitors cannot exist in. Anyway, I don't know anyone who missed out on a 360 who isn't investing in one when they ship back in stock. I'm sure those suckers still exist but I'm sure their numbers have dwindled. I'm no fan of Sony's business practices either but if next to microsoft Sony is is the second coming of christ. If I take a machine second to my revolution, it'll probably be a PS3. If the PS3 is a big of a bomb as the 360 is then I'll just get another video card for my pc.

Art Guy @ Mar 8th 2006 3:17PM

groovyguy - We all know Nintendo USED to be number one, that's a given. But the first GameCube title on that list is number 36, and both Halo and Halo 2 were higher up on the list.

Have you seen the even declining sales numbers for Nintendos last two home consoles? It's not a rosy picture, and the attach rates are downright depressing.

Unfortunately, until I see some Revolution games in action, there in nothing to get excited about. In my head I can imagine exciting games for any system, even the Phantom, that doesn't mean they exist.

Art Guy @ Mar 8th 2006 3:19PM

I do agree that the Revolution will sell great as a second system if the games are good, and Nintendo does make some of the best games.

mjp @ Mar 8th 2006 3:24PM

It all comes down to whether or not it works. If the Revolution works as advertised, and the new interface/controller works with precision, it will be HUGE. If it works so-so, critics will pummel it to death and it will destroy big-N's console cred. I'm hoping it works. I've never had more fun playing XBOX or PS games than I have playing Nintendo's. Call them kiddie if you want, most of them are intuitive and addictive while still managing to be challenging.

knight37 @ Mar 8th 2006 3:25PM

If all three systems were out now and all readily available in the stores, I would pick the Revolution first. Most likely I'd go with the Xbox 360 second, but that's mostly because I haven't heard jack about what kind of launch games the PS3 is having, and there are already several good games on the 360 I want.

Thomas Crymes @ Mar 8th 2006 3:25PM

"...in case it ends up being a 360"

This is the kind of sensationalism that really irks me. The 360 is 4 or 5 months old. There really isn't enough information to judge it other than its launch. And you can't even judge that because few of us really remember in crystal clear terms what the XBox launch was like let alone the PS2.

After The PS3 and Revolution come out, we will be able to judge the launches respectively. All will have shortages. All will have titles that will pale in comparison to titles developed on the same console in the future. And unfortunately, all of them will have fanboys claiming that one piece of plastic is better than another and that all those who disagree are idiots.

And the world turns yet again...

dsub @ Mar 8th 2006 3:31PM

has this guy ever heard of a pretty nice game coming to 360 and PS3 called...Resident Evil 5? Don't see that showing up on the Revolution. The 360 has tons more to offer than just Halo, and the PS3 will have much more to offer than just GTA. For 360: Gears of War, Dead Rising, Lost Planet, Blue Dragon, Mass Effect, Prey (at least for consoles, 99 Nights, Oblivion, and I'm sure many more will come...like Ninja Gaiden 2. The PS3 also is a no brainer. One word. FINAL FANTASY. Of course there's also God of War, Devil May Cry, Metal Gear Solid, and many more...

If anything the company lacking in exclusives is nintendo. All they have are first party exclusives with maybe a few exceptions for so so games. They have no proven online system for consoles either. Sure PS2 online wasn't quite what XBL is, but at least it was there giving them some experience.

If you ask me this dipshit is obviously not even a serious gamer. There were so many great titles on the original XBOX, obviously PS2 as well, and the PS3 and 360 are going to follow that trend. Sure, the revolution looks, well...revolutionary, but the proof is in the pudding, and in the games. Just like Art Guy said.

I'd hate to see nintendo bite the bullet, and nor do I think they will, but look at his title: "managing director of research at Wedbush Morgan Securities."

This guy is basically in charge of looking into markets for an investment firm. Hardly an educated voice on the gaming industry. My guess? Wedbush Morgan Securities just invested in Nintendo, so he's putting the two cents in from his company to help generate interest. He knows nothing.

Gavin @ Mar 8th 2006 3:32PM

I love the names for the new MS and Nintendo systems. They are really prophetic in a way because if you turn 360 degrees..or one revolution, you end up right where you were before.

In 2nd and 3rd place.

chris3116 @ Mar 8th 2006 3:34PM

Revolution will be my primairy console. I'm a Nintendo and PC gamer.

Is it me or Nintendo had planned this for a long time? Let the big multimedia companies to kill themselves and take a route for the throne.

Divide to reign that's what I think.

Jay @ Mar 8th 2006 3:36PM

I refuse to listen to anyone who says "sucks".

Though I agree a little with the idea of the second console. It will mean Nintendo will win. After all, that turtle did win the race. More homes=more profit=larger market share.

The Rev is just going to dominate. From my own findings all my gamer mates are just eager to get to grips with that Rev controller. They don't give jack-shit to graphics or anything other than gameplay. their reason? "that controller is going to invent new games".

Rev has won. Smashing!

Macht @ Mar 8th 2006 3:36PM

Sparticus "Either way, this guy sounds pretty biased. You can't tell me that Halo is the only good game on Xbox. Ninja Gaiden, KOTOR, Jade Empire, Fable, PGR1 and 2 and the Mech Assault games are just a few offerings off the top of my head that definitely qualify as quality exclusives."

That's nice and all to state, but out of those ones you listed off the top of your head Jade Empire is the only one that is actually exclusive to the XBox and if I recall it's even suppose to be having a PC release sometime so it isn't even a XBox exclusive.

Final Fantasy was a key game I think that helped PS2 gain it's power in the past, however Final Fantasy is now striving to multi-platform instead. So Final Fantasy isn't exactly going to be a title anymore to drive a console to power, it'll likely still be software to pull in large sales but not really drive a single console.

Hinting with what the software developers have done before, you might see some games trying to entice players to buy multiple platforms. So this guy's idea of a person wanting XBox 360 or PS3 seems silly, I've already ran into a decent sized community of players that already stated they are getting XBox 360 and PS3 and Revolution. Not an "or" to be seen anywere.