Three big-picture PS3 predictions from OPM
by Vladimir Cole 
{ Mar 12th 2006 at 2:00PM }
John Davison, editorial director for Ziff Davis Media's Game Group, penned three predictions for the PlayStation 3 launch in the April edition of Official PlayStation Magazine. Here's a quick summary:
- Launch: "November in the United States" and "it won’t be a penny more than $399.99." (Because Sony's in big trouble if it cedes two holiday seasons to the Xbox 360. Plus, Microsoft has created a strong pricing precedent with the Xbox 360.)
- The Dualshock 3: The boomerang ain't gonna fly. It's got no room for a battery pack. The new controller will likely look a lot like the PlayStation 2 controllers.
- The games: Only a few games will be available at launch. Most of them won't utilize the full potential of the PS3. (We'd say that none will. It's just not possible until developers have more practice creating software for the PS3.) Davison writes, "the real jaw-droppers on the system aren’t going to be shown until E3 in 2007."
[Image comes from a prerendered scene from upcoming PS3 title Warhawk]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Tim @ Mar 12th 2006 2:09PM
Good job trying to start crap with your 'hay guys this pic is not the real gameplay graphix it CGIzorz!' at the end of the post.
Besides, The WarHawk screens and videos were all real time. If they were CGI then they did a crappy job.
vazel @ Mar 12th 2006 2:09PM
i hope they do stick with the dual shock controller design.
Imadogg99 @ Mar 12th 2006 2:13PM
Awww man I wanted to throw around the boomerang...
:(
Thanks a lot Sony for messing up my life now
The_Wind_Waker8 @ Mar 12th 2006 2:27PM
Number 3 is ture for any new system coming out this year, and it's been that way for past systems too.
And about number two... Boomerang?! I thought that was a banana!
D O W N @ Mar 12th 2006 2:34PM
#2 and #3 are locks, pretty obvious even- but I also think there will be a dual-price point approach from Sony. The in-box contents of the $399 package will probably stack up pretty well against the X360, but I'd be surprised if they didn't position the PS3 as the "premium" console with a higher priced bundle. (yes, even after all of the abuse MS took over doing just that)
Maybe the smart thing to do is include a small, 3 or 5gb HDD with the base model, and a 20 or 40gb unit with the higher-priced one..? Cuts cost and skips the "tard pack" talk.
Derrick @ Mar 12th 2006 2:35PM
Why does everyone want the DualShock 2 design? It's terribly outdated, No triggers, analog sticks are terrible, and it's just a tad too small. The controller was awesome during it's time (compared to the behemoth N64 controller) but it's time for change. They should just blatantly rip off the 360's almost perfect controller.
Derrick @ Mar 12th 2006 2:39PM
DOWN, you do not know much about hard drives, do you? Sony said that they will not have a hard drive standard, Also, it would infact be more expensive to make a 5GB hard drive, then it would be to make a 20 or 40GB hard drive, in fact, I would estimate that the 5GB hard drive would almost cost twice as much. This is why Microsoft included a 8/10GB hard drive with the Xbox, it was overkill for the system, but it was cheapest because nobody makes smaller hard drives.
Jay @ Mar 12th 2006 2:43PM
haha @ the CGI comment bit. Brilliant, I had no idea they prerendered PS3 stuff. Amazing. signals good hopes for this 'so called' super computer.
$399 in November 2006
==translates to (using the PSP guide)==
£299 in March 2007
Gotta say I've got no love for that controller. Talk about the american film industry. Nothing new here.
Games? I'm looking forward to MGS4. If it's as good as or better than MGS1 *doubts* then I'll be happy. Nothing else has me. just nothing.
My main plans for the PS3 is a homebrew machine and for BluRay- if that takes off.
Ejab @ Mar 12th 2006 2:47PM
1) 399.99 - not likely, more like 499.99
2) They cant use the name, or the design, they were sued by the company that designed Dual Shock 2.
3) The launch games will look a little worse, than 360 games, according to the kikizo article, Untold legends gameplay pics, and the info from the heavenly sword developer.
Nmaster @ Mar 12th 2006 2:48PM
Hey Johnny, you wanna bet on that stuff? Specifically, I'll bet you $100 your wrong on the price point...
As for the controller, I would hope Sony's smart enough after all the buzz about the boomerang to scrap that design. But, then again, I'd never bet on Sony being smart...
The last point is just common sense, but I don't think we'll be seeing much that's truly impressive until E3 2008. The Cell is gonna slow developers down quite a bit...
Dakara @ Mar 12th 2006 3:02PM
Let me add some FAMOUS Kutaragi Quotes for those of you that dont know. This is what he said about the PS3. "The PS3 is not a game machine. We've never once called it a game machine." "With the PS3, our intentions have been to create a machine with supercomputer calculation capabilities for home entertainment." "Games will just be a killer app for the PlayStation 3." "X-box 360 is more of an Xbox 1.5 than a next generation console." I wondered who said that comment first! "This time, Microsoft has stated clearly that it is going after PlayStation. However, they're going not after the PlayStation 3, but the PlayStation 2. They were looking at 2, and that's why it became like that." "Microsoft is trailing behind us, but they are not a threat. They are good at improving on products, but we will be advancing to the next level with revolutionary technology. Beating us for a short moment is like accidentally winning a point from a Shihan (Karate master), and Microsoft is still not a black belt. Just like with their operating systems, they might come out with something good around the third generation of their release." "We're not going to equip a HDD by default, because no matter how much we put in it, it won't be enough. We've added a 2.5-inch HDD bay so that users can equip Sony HDDs, such as 80GB and 120GB, even though that's still not enough" "The PS3 could be superior to the PC in non-linear video editing software or visual graphics programs thanks to the Cell processor." "The PS3 is for consumers to think to themselves 'I will work more hours just to buy one'. We want people to feel that they want it, irrespective of anything else." "It will be espensive." There you have it. The PSX was $800 USD when I was in Japan, and think about what was involved in that. They were going to release that here, but it was too close to PS3 launch and would steal some of its thunder. Sony won't release a system for over $400 USD...they already have. Go ahead, check it all out, you'll all be pleasantly suprised. I think the PS3 won't be $800, but I think that it will definetley be over $400 dollars, they will lose WAY to much money if they didn't...or...they could wait 3 year and release it so they could sell it for $399 and only lose a little bit of money. LOL. If they sell it for cheaper that the X-box...I WILL BUY IT!
100 ipod movies @ Mar 12th 2006 3:03PM
I think all 3 predictions are very reasonable. I really dont see how the ps3 will be able to outsell the 360 (at least in America)if they dont compete with microsoft in the price spectrum. But hey, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
David @ Mar 12th 2006 3:07PM
Ever hear of the enter key #11...
So long as mgs4 launches within 6 months of ps3 debut I'm set. And of course no one expects absolutely mind blowing graphics untill the devs can really get a feel for the respective systems. I'm ready for final fantasy 13 in '08
Clay @ Mar 12th 2006 3:09PM
Sounds pretty reasonable.
Plus, if Sony messes this launch up, I'm going to buy a 360 instead. I bet a lot of people are just waiting for the 360 to go into Sony competition mode.
Kizza's gynecologist @ Mar 12th 2006 3:19PM
Yea, give the 'rang to the REV-it'll be an improvement over what Ninty's trying to stuff up our bloop chutes!...........all mails will now be answered by my secretary.
Koda Kumi @ Mar 12th 2006 3:19PM
If they sold it for $399, at around a $400 dollar loss...plus they intend to sell 2 million...thats a $800,000,000 loss...isn't that too much for a comapny to lose in a year? They would have to wait for a later launch date, say...2 years.
LuckyT @ Mar 12th 2006 3:21PM
#3 is a completely "duh" comment. No system has ever been fully utilised at launch, but that doesn't mean the games won't look kick-ass (and I think there will be some really nice looking games..Lair for example is one of the best looking games they've shown thusfar, IMO, and it's supposedly a launch game).In
terms of numbers, though, I would disagree with that. PS3's launch should probably be the largest ever. EA alone reportedly are planning 8-12 titles, compared to 6 at the PS2's launch. And PS2's launch was the largest to date, if that gives you any idea..
Also, it didn't seem at all clear to me that the aerial parts of the E3 Warhawk trailer were prerendered - they looked realtime to me. The gameplay footage shown at TGS looked consistent with it also.
Senor Juan Marquez DeJesus Gomez @ Mar 12th 2006 3:25PM
Microsoft's head start in the development area is going to make it a winner.
By the time PS3 releases developers will be cranking out games left and right that utilize the FULL cababilities of the 360.
As much as the console shortages may have hurt MS short-term, the headstart in game creation and allowing developers to become familiar with the system and how to best push its limits, therefore making better games, will allow MS to succeed in the long run.
epobirs @ Mar 12th 2006 3:44PM
Funny, I'd always thought the boomerang controllers extended shape was for the very purpose of having room for batteries with the right combination of cost and capacity. Trading off bulk is one way to do that. The first thing that came to mind when I saw that controller was the attachment I use with the original GBA to give it a large rechargeable battery and also make it more comfortable for my adult hands. The form factor it creates is pretty close to a PS1 controller, so I still get hand cramping but not as soon as I would with the naked GBA.
Rare Hare @ Mar 12th 2006 3:57PM
"They cant use the name, or the design, they were sued by the company that designed Dual Shock 2."
not true. they were sued by the company who developed the MOTORS found in the Dual Shock 2 that give the controller a rumble feature. all this means is that they'll have to find a new patent and design for a different type of motor. the design of the controller itself is Sony's.
Nomi @ Mar 12th 2006 3:59PM
@ #16:
Now 800 million dollars is not two much money for Sony to lose in one year. Considering that Microsoft has lost around 2 billion dollars every years since Xbox came out. Sony has a lot of places where it gets money from and they have heaps of cash in their secret lair. Legend has it that Ken Kutaragi goes for a swim in the cash every Friday the 13th.
Jago @ Mar 12th 2006 4:01PM
"By the time PS3 releases developers will be cranking out games left and right that utilize the FULL cababilities of the 360."
Umm have you been playing games much? Game consoles generally don't start using the full capabilities of the system until maybe 3rd or 4th generation. By the end of the 4th generation going into the 5th, a good chunk of games use close to 100% of the systems power.
"If they sold it for $399, at around a $400 dollar loss...plus they intend to sell 2 million...thats a $800,000,000 loss...isn't that too much for a comapny to lose in a year? They would have to wait for a later launch date, say...2 years."
Umm...that happens all the time. You have to lose money to make money and larger scale you make something the more money you will initially loose.
...that is of course you are Nintendo and are SMART about your designs and make money sooner rather then later.
Drogan @ Mar 12th 2006 4:11PM
They could make up their losses in acessories.
Maybe, not really sure. It may be a small loss considering all the electronics they move every year.
CrAzY American @ Mar 12th 2006 4:14PM
Microsoft looses 1 billion each year on the xbox, not 2 billion. Microsoft also can loose that amount of money and do ok, im not so sure Sony can afford that kind of loss.
Freakhead @ Mar 12th 2006 4:17PM
I think PS3 will have been in development longer at it's launch than 360 games were. And I think this will benefit the games.
I think Sony can price higher if they include Blu-Ray. $50 to $100 easily. All they have to do is throw some hi-def movies out there and it will be hard to not see the value in getting a hi-def dvd player for only another $100.
LuckyT @ Mar 12th 2006 4:29PM
"By the time PS3 releases developers will be cranking out games left and right that utilize the FULL cababilities of the 360."
Nope. That won't happen for years yet.
"I think PS3 will have been in development longer at it's launch than 360 games were. And I think this will benefit the games."
True. And with more mature hardware for longer. Final 360 dev kits arrived maybe 2 months before launch, but final PS3 kits arrived in Dec/Jan - which would be a good 8/9 months before launch, assuming PS3 arrived in September. The kits prior to that were also a lot closer to the final hardware than any of 360's alpha or beta kits were.
KaptainK @ Mar 12th 2006 4:45PM
sony thinks they can sell at a loss mainly because they are using ps3 to push the blu-ray format. if blu-ray does well sony gets royalties from movie companies who use it. ps3's main purpous is to push blu-ray (blu-ray will be a failure by the way)
B1gC72 @ Mar 12th 2006 4:50PM
well this is semi-refreshing. i dont think it will cost $399.99, i think sony will squeeze out an extra $50-$75 but will keep it away from that $500 tag.
to #9 and #20, you are both right. sony was sued for patent infringement and it was on the motors of the dual shock controller. the controller is sony's design but i think it goes deeper than that since sony was ordered to stop playstations (1 and 2) and a handful of games. (this article from gamespot shows that, < http://www.gamespot.com/news/6121137.html?q=dual%20shock > )
and the thing about the games not looking next-gen until late 2007-early 2008 is probably right since this is usually with all new consoles as the developers have to learn how to write for it first.
Jago @ Mar 12th 2006 5:12PM
"but final PS3 kits arrived in Dec/Jan"
Nope...not true...and I have plenty of "inside" information from various friends who work in the industry.
"ps3's main purpous is to push blu-ray (blu-ray will be a failure by the way)"
Can you prove it will be a failure? No you can't.
Ejab @ Mar 12th 2006 5:40PM
""ps3's main purpous is to push blu-ray (blu-ray will be a failure by the way)"
Can you prove it will be a failure? No you can't."
Common sense; you will need to buy a special tv to buy a real blu-ray tv, early HD tv adopters will have to rebuy a tv with hdmi or dvi, 20 dollars extra for old movies, and a $1000 price tag.
klinko @ Mar 12th 2006 5:55PM
I hate the "boomerang" as much as the next guy, but I disagree that there isn't enough room for batteries. They could easily fit a few Li-Poly packs in those massive handles.
boxchatter @ Mar 12th 2006 6:09PM
Well, stores are stocked with 360's right now and they aren't doing such a hot job moving em off the shelves any longer. Are that many people waiting for a ps3 or is this gen just too expensive? You can upgrade your current computer to near equivalent running specs for the price of one of these two machines.
boxchatter @ Mar 12th 2006 6:21PM
sli dual graphic card compatible motherboard motherboard = 96
2 256 mem sli video cards= 300
1 gig ram stick = 60
total price = 460
xbox360 = 400
live service for 4 eyars = 200
total price = 640
hmmmm...
And I'm not counting extra controllers or the fact that the same pc game on the xbox will run you an additional 10 bucks a pop.
Jago @ Mar 12th 2006 6:29PM
Oh great...another stupid PC fanboy stupid enough to compare a PC to a console.
nizzy1115 @ Mar 12th 2006 6:45PM
#33
Your price comparision is completly fubar. You dont even have a processor, operating system, hard drive, rom drive, speakers, or input devices into your comparision...and what graphics cards are you talking about ... 2 6600's in sli being the same as the graphics in teh xbox 360?
...But thats besides the point. A gaming console will always have the advantage over an equally spec'd out pc because it games were soely designed for that specific hardware. Thats the huge problem with pc gaming. Also, the xbox live service is by far a 10x better gaming expirence than on any pc i play on. I have both, a nice gaming rig and my 360, and i have never play on my pc since i got my 360. It is just better.
Research your facts and give a ligidiment comparision arguement next time you feel like posting ;)
Joshi @ Mar 12th 2006 6:47PM
...because we know that a motherboard, video card(s), and RAM are all that is inside a PC.
Oh, and do you think those video cards are going to be worth shit in four years?
But what takes the cake is your total for the XB360. Apparently, $400 + $200 = $640. Who knew?
saboola @ Mar 12th 2006 6:57PM
That's funny, #33 lives in a magical land where computers don't require operating systems, massive storage drives, processors, the list goes on and on. Let's not make the PC vs console debate, because it's a dumb one.
theGreenGrunt @ Mar 12th 2006 7:00PM
has anyone thought that the XBOX360 may have unwittingly helped sony with their ps3 development?
i mean software developers can use everything they learned to make their games like GRAW and Battledfield2 look awesome on the 360 and leverage that knowledge to develop awesome looking ps3 titles? I have a feeling titles on launch for the most part are going to look awesome.
and no i am not a ps3 sony fanboy. i have a 360. my gamer tag is my name on this post.
Jago @ Mar 12th 2006 7:23PM
Battlefield 2 on the X360 is hardly an "awesome looking" title btw...it's just a Xbox game with "slightly" improved graphics.
GRAW...while awesome looking is not quite enough to justify shelling out $400+ to play on the 360. Gears of War is the one of the first games to really show off what "next gen" graphics is about (Fight Night 3 is also another one.)
Zero_ @ Mar 12th 2006 8:24PM
Woah, woah. I may be highly skeptical of the Playstation 3 and what it can handle, but Joystiq simply can't say that is pre-rendered. The authenticity of any trailers for the Playstation 3 (With the exception of MGS4) has not been confirmed by anyone.
colin @ Mar 12th 2006 8:56PM
is there ANY information at all about a GTA for ps3? that's really all i care about and will be the only reason i buy a ps3.
chris @ Mar 12th 2006 9:13PM
the xbox 360 is goin to fail just like the dreamcast did
KaptainK @ Mar 12th 2006 9:16PM
i used to think the xbox360 was going to fail too, but the more and more i read about the ps3 the more skeptical i become
striegs @ Mar 12th 2006 9:30PM
I don't think it was Vlad's intention to incite a War O' The Fanboys with that remark at the end--he was just offhandedly informing us which game that screencap originated from. I didn't even notice the word "prerendered" anywhere in there until one of the Fannyboiz pointed it out. Admittedly, it would have been better to just state "above pic from upcoming PS3 title Warhawk", but it's your own politically correct fault if you misconstrue each and every comment made by anyone as a personal attack against you.
Like Zero said, with the exception of the MGS4 trailer, nobody here knows which demos were real-time and which were prerendered. If anyone out there does happen to know, then ante up the hyperlink. However, since the trailer was first shown at E3 2005, it's not like anyone's going to hold it against the developer (Incognito) for showing us what the game will look like eventually. Until such time as they come out and publicly state that, yes, that trailer was running in real time on near-PS3 hardware, then we would not be remiss in assuming that it was prerendered footage (although it would be more accurate overall to not have bothered to make the distinction in the first place, due to the aforementioned ambiguity). After all, what do they have to lose by being honest with their fans?
Jago @ Mar 12th 2006 10:29PM
"is there ANY information at all about a GTA for ps3? that's really all i care about and will be the only reason i buy a ps3."
So much for originality...if thats the ONLY reason why you'd be interested in the PS3 then it is no wonder games are so "ehh" lately.
Justin @ Mar 12th 2006 10:42PM
"Like Zero said, with the exception of the MGS4 trailer, nobody here knows which demos were real-time and which were prerendered."
Plus the fact that that MGS4 trailer was all cut-scene type stuff - scripted, that is. It wasn't an example of gameplay at all. You could essentially say that it was a CGI render of sorts, since there was no interaction, and of course the scene was "rendered" to look its best. No enemies on screen, character movement not present in actual gameplay, camera movements engineered to make it look good, etc.
And while it may take devs 12-24 months to really start squeezing out games that take full(er) advantage of the hardware... if you haven't played FNR3 or GRAW on the 360 hooked up to a big HDTV, you're missing out. Those two titles may be "first wave" titles but they are definitely next-gen stuff - even if you hate the gameplay, you can't ignore how great the graphics are.
Kamalot @ Mar 12th 2006 10:44PM
"So long as mgs4 launches within 6 months of ps3 debut I'm set."
Since when did you ever get ANY MGS title right after launch? It will be at least a year, probably much longer.
How 'bout waiting for the game to launch. The PS3 will have dropped in price by then.
Kamalot @ Mar 12th 2006 10:50PM
""ps3's main purpous is to push blu-ray (blu-ray will be a failure by the way)"
Can you prove it will be a failure? No you can't."
Can someone prove that Bluray will be a success? No, you can't. I'm all for betting on the tangible. Today, I can buy a 360. I can try the games, and make a purchasing decision. Today, I can play games I KNOW I will enjoy.
I can't make thet kind of decision about the PS3. I'll have to wait another 6 months at least, maybe more. When that time comes, I'll be able to try the games. Then I can decide if it is right for me.
Until that time, I'll play the 360 and my DS, cause that's where the BEST games are.
Jago @ Mar 12th 2006 11:03PM
Seriously...does ANYONE actualy care what Kizza says? He's obviously a blind Sony fanboy who resorts to calling everyone names when they don't agree with him.
"Plus the fact that that MGS4 trailer was all cut-scene type stuff - scripted, that is. It wasn't an example of gameplay at all. You could essentially say that it was a CGI render of sorts, since there was no interaction, and of course the scene was "rendered" to look its best. No enemies on screen, character movement not present in actual gameplay, camera movements engineered to make it look good, etc."
OMFG...seriously...go do your homework on when stuff for the MGS games has been shown. EVERY trailer shown for that series has ALWAYS been using the in-game playable engine using cutscenes from the final shipped game.
Also if you are going to say that b/c it was a scripted event that it isn't using the in-game engine then you might as well say that about EVERY game trailer then.
"Until that time, I'll play the 360 and my DS, cause that's where the BEST games are."
Umm...DS yea but 360? Gimmie a break...that title belongs to the PS2/Xbox/Gamecube generation and not something that came less then 6 months ago.
Also I never said that Blu-Ray was going to be successful...I just get tired of people making STUPID statements that something is going to fail when itn't out yet and neither is it's competitor.
overthehill @ Mar 12th 2006 11:18PM
That's funny, since Jon Davison in a podcast has already recounted what he's just said. He's now predicting no ps3 in 2006 and at a price considerably higher than $399.