Joystiq

Grindstone @ Mar 21st 2006 6:41PM

I thought Krazy Ken had stated they will be churning out 1 million PS3 each month. Gamestop will get all of them plus some magical extras? I've had issues with Gamestop before, looks like nothing has changed.

I wonder what they were expecting for the Xbox 360 and if they ever got the amount they expected for them as of yet?

Jay @ Mar 21st 2006 6:46PM

... Yea. Like the PS3 will be out in the US in November. I'll giggle a little inside. No way in hell is the PS3 out this year. There's probably as equal chance of the PS4 before 2007.

Japan definitely. US no. Europe definite nope.

Have these analysts got a phone number to ring and laugh at when they're wrong. I mean they might be right. Or would they just be inundated with calls?

gman @ Mar 21st 2006 6:47PM

I love how this guy just talks RIGHT out of his ass...no final shipping numbers are in...neither console is even being mass prduced yet. And if Sony packs the ps3 with as much as they say they will (network switch, bluetooth, 60bg hdd, etc) that will be quite the hefty loss they're taking shipping that many units for launch...unless they sell for a profit. But no one wants to pay $800USD for a ps3 right? right...ok maybe some do...but this guy's still fukt

Andrew @ Mar 21st 2006 6:49PM

Oh, I getting so sick of these kinds of reports. It disgusts me to no end listening to anybody Dismiss Nintendo, as if they really want one of the hallmarks of the Video game industry to die off forever. I swear it's like hating Nintendo is the new chic in the industry, especially among the anayilical and gamer masses.

Bryce @ Mar 21st 2006 6:50PM

The Revolution will almost garenteed to be able to ship more units than the Playstation 3 will, so really it's probally just up to Nintendo how many they want to ship, not how many the can ship

Jesse J. Anderson @ Mar 21st 2006 6:51PM

wow, this is so speculative it's not even funny.

One store mentions that it will be recieving more initial shipments of one console over the other and you predict it's going to outsellf the other based on that alone?

That would've been like saying E.T. is going to be the greatest selling Atari game ever because you heard they were producing millions of them.

Exo @ Mar 21st 2006 6:52PM

I dont really agre with those numbers, bot only is there only going to be 1 million WORLDWIDE for PS3 launch, But I dont think nintendo will be making that few systems, its not like rev has anything in it that going tomake it hard to manafacture

LaughingTarget @ Mar 21st 2006 6:59PM

Someone tell GameStop that only 2 million are being released in November...worldwide. I doubt GameStop will command 60% of that entire stock.

vc @ Mar 21st 2006 7:00PM

-1 stars for Jesse J. Anderson. Reason: the post is explicit about the required assumption: "if GameStop's shipments are proportionate to shipments to other American retailers"

I don't know how I could have been more explicit on this point.

-1 for Andrew. Nobody's dissing Nintendo. This is a retailer's expectations of stock shipments. Nothing more.

SteveH @ Mar 21st 2006 7:10PM

Grindstone (Post #1) has a point. Kutaragi said they would ship 1 million each month at launch... worldwide. That's a total of 2 million if they launch at the beginning of November. Split that up between three territories - Japan, US, Europe - and I can't imagine the US alone will get more than 1 million by the end of 2006.

There's no way that all of those 1 million will go to GameStop. What about Best Buy, Circuit City, Target, Wal-Mart, Toys-R-Us, etc.? And if GameStop is actually estimating that's what they're gonna get... then get ready for wait-times on GameSpot PS3 pre-orders after launch that will make the 360 wait look trivial.

vidGuy @ Mar 21st 2006 7:10PM

Wrong. Dead wrong. There's no way the PS3 will sell out if it launches at $500+. There's an enormous possibility the Revolution will sell out if it launches at $199 (like every other Nintendo home console). I predict the Revolution's 2nd shipment will be sold out before the PS3's initial shipment.

Think about it.
1.2 million PS3s @ $500 = $600,000,000
750,000 Revolutions @ $200 = $150,000,000

Which do you think gamers will be more willing to spend? Also, think about how much consumers will be swayed against Sony when they see little difference between the PS3 and 360, but the 360 is several hundred cheaper?

Bob42 @ Mar 21st 2006 7:11PM

The writer of this news post seems to suggeest that there is going to be a "battle" between the PS3 and the Revolution. This is not the case. Anyone who doesn't believe that the PS3 outselinng the Revolution by millions upon millions of units is only a matter of time is whacko insane.

I'm really looking forward to the Revolution, too, but the Playstation brand has so much more market value than Nintendo it's not even funny. There were, what, 4 times as many PS2s sold as Gamecubes?

shaun @ Mar 21st 2006 7:12PM

Like Grindstone said i thought Sony had announced 1M a month (worldwide) and GameStop get them all? I don't know how big a chain GameStop are myself but those numbers don't add up even if they were the only store selling PS3's in the states!

What i find funny is if this is true that means Sony expect to sell in america nearly 40 times the amount of XBox360's sold in Japan in the same period of time. And that's only from GameStop!!

vc @ Mar 21st 2006 7:14PM

+1 for Shaun and Grindstone. Great questions!

Andrew @ Mar 21st 2006 7:16PM

reply to 8 - your right about this only being retailer expectations, vc. but this is based on a research report published today by Michael Pachter and Edward Woo of Wedbush Morgan Securities. And as we've all seen the joystiq news anaylsts have always snubbed Nintendo and state that the big N is Doomed.

Also, that rant was fit of rage fuelled. Sorry for blowing up like that my friend.

Jesse J. Anderson @ Mar 21st 2006 7:28PM

I'm sorry vc, but I get -1 star because I disagree with your article? You took a tiny little bit of information , tagged on "IF this falls in line with the thousands of other stores across the country, then POSSIBLY this could mean that the PS3 MIGHT outsell the Revolution."

Do you not see how much of an extreme exaggeration this is? It's taking a random minor statistic and trying to create a big news buzz about nothing.

"PS3 to outsell Revolution by 33%-60% in 2006"
basis: One store announces it will carry more of one item than the other.

This completely falls in-line with my previous comment comparing this to the launch of ET, of which there were many stocked.

SuicideNinja @ Mar 21st 2006 7:33PM

Maybe it comes down to consumers + video gaming = unpredictable.

Before dissing the analysts, realize that predictions are their forte. It seems a bunch of people always get upset at these predictions, but that's what they are: predictions. They aren't promising or making set-in-stone claims. No matter what information is available, you can never fully predict any market.

Analysts' jobs are very necessary as well. Otherwise, we would see a lot more issues on our end. If companies blindly dumped money all the time there would be a severe economy hit.

This prediction is obvious due to the numbers provided. That doesn't mean that is how it is going to be.

vc @ Mar 21st 2006 7:33PM

JJ: Other posters (Shaun and Grindstone) disagreed and got positive stars. They challenged the analysis with a good question.

Your question, however, cannot stand if you take into account the second paragraph of the post. It is a knee-jerk question that doesn't address the documented assumption.

If you had instead challenged the assumption (rather than ignore the assumption), you'd have likely earned a star rather than lost one.

Your new position as stated in your follow-up post does indeed challenge the assumption, which is fine. But you still choose to attack the author rather than the source. These are GameStop's numbers, not mine, and the assumption that distribution to GameStop will be proportional to distribution to other retail channels is still sound.

bv @ Mar 21st 2006 7:36PM

Obviously the 1 million consoles for Gamestop alone is wrong, Kutaragi himself said 1 million per month per region, and 6 million by the end of the fiscal quarter in March 2007.

Also, we have no idea how difficult it will be to manufacture one of these revolution consoles. Remember that the new controller will be interfacing with a piece of hardware no one has seen yet (the infrared pickup devices to be placed on the tv). The controller might be a difficult production as well with the amount of hardware logic built in. Overall, the Revolution could face shortages due to lack of components or difficulty to manufacture.

dsub @ Mar 21st 2006 7:36PM

I can understand where your coming from with these assumptions VC. But when you look at a few things they can quickly be questioned.

Sony said they will be launching WORLDWIDE with 1 million consoles per month. I assume that means 1,000,000 consoles total, which means US/Japan would probabaly get around 400,000 each while europe gets like 200,000...something of that sort. Given that gamestop is a North American retailer, how can they be getting 1-1.2 million PS3's on launch day in the US alone when sony has announced there will be 1 million worldwide? What about Best Buy, or Circuit City, or Walmart? What will they sell? When you take these things into consideration the actual number that you assume gamestop would get is actually MUCH less. Most likely more in the 100-200,000 range, considering these units would be dispersed among both EB and Gamestop stores, which are both much more common than Best Buy, and the pre-order store of choice for the early adopter.

If there were evidence to show nintendo's total worldwide day one numbers would be 750k while sony's were 1-1.2 then sure, this is a possibility. We also don't know if nintendo is going to ship worldwide or not.

This difference here is that you are basing your assumptions off of what an investment firm said, rather than what SONY actually announced...I'll take their word over these investment analyst jerks anyday. I'm not slamming your post, just offering a different perspective.

vc @ Mar 21st 2006 7:42PM

Dsub: I agree with the questions you raise. They're good ones.

This becomes a question of who you believe. Sony or GameStop (assuming that Pachter & Co. didn't make a typo).

Generally, we should believe Sony on matters concerning the production of PS3s. However, GameStop's perspective shouldn't be ignored and deserves airtime.

Jesse @ Mar 21st 2006 7:49PM

Funny, I remember there were similiar reports saying PSP will outsell DS by godbillion units.

Samael @ Mar 21st 2006 8:01PM

Only 33%-70%???? I think they're going to swallow the GameCube 2

gman @ Mar 21st 2006 8:04PM

"12. The writer of this news post seems to suggeest that there is going to be a "battle" between the PS3 and the Revolution. This is not the case. Anyone who doesn't believe that the PS3 outselinng the Revolution by millions upon millions of units is only a matter of time is whacko insane."

Listen dude...sony's rep isn't exactly what it was after all this copyright bitching...people are really starting to hate sony..and the fact that they still have nothing to show for a system they announced well over a year ago...people love PS2..it was a good system. But it still was NOWHERE NEAR what they said it would be. The "emotion engine" producing Toy Story quality games? riight we saw that didnt we..wait no we didn't. Sony is crumbling. I'm just waiting for more rootkit fiascos

Jesse J. Anderson @ Mar 21st 2006 8:06PM

vc - who made the assumption of "PS3 to outsell Revolution by 33%-60%"? It looks like that's you in this article, and that's what I'm "attacking." Yes you have a paragraph in there stating all the IFs for this to be possible, but even still the title is very misleading.

Jesse J. Anderson @ Mar 21st 2006 8:13PM

just sayin is all. =)

Exbzurg @ Mar 21st 2006 8:17PM

O RLY?

Soothsayer @ Mar 21st 2006 8:22PM

Huh, look at that. An analyst who likes to overestimate. Deja vu. :)

No, but really. Ignoring the obvious inconsistencies with other PS3 predictions, do they really expect no problems? I'm not doubting a sell-through, but Sony's history of launches isn't clean. And where did they get Revolution predictions? Do they have info, or is it a random guess? (No "Read" link, that's why I'm asking.) I'd like to believe that they're judging it based on past launches, but with the PS3 predictions, it's obvious that they're not.

And I'm pretty sure 33% + 60% != 100%. Unless you're surreptitiously dissing 360 sales. :P

vc @ Mar 21st 2006 8:25PM

Soothsayer:

These are figures that Wedbush attributes to GameStop. No further information is provided.

As for the percentages...

1 million is 33% more than 750k.
1.2 million is 60% more than 750k.

Clear as mud now?

This is the the sentence before and after the figure in question (for context).

QUOTE: "GameStop management expects the PS3 and Revolution to launch in November, with a possible cut in the PS2 price in
May from $149 to $129. The company expects Q4 U.S. shipments of 1.0 %u2013 1.2 million PS3 units and 750K Revolution
units. The company also expects strong software sales in 2006 from Square Enix%u2019s Kingdom Hearts 2 (March release)
and Final Fantasy 12 (Fall release) and Nintendo%u2019s Legend of Zelda (Fall release)."

Logan T. @ Mar 21st 2006 8:36PM

Well, I know I'll be reserving 2 Revo's and a PS3 in hopes that there will be a shortage. Unfortunately I think they both learned not to make Microsoft's mistake.

Soothsayer @ Mar 21st 2006 8:43PM

Ah, okay. All clear as mud now, thanks.

32_Footsteps @ Mar 21st 2006 8:46PM

You know, both the article and Grindstone's great question got me thinking - who is this group?

Well, they seem to be a fairly high-end brokerage firm, well respected for their work on mid-growth companies. They specialize in companies headquartered in the West and Southwest, and do frequent research on companies in those areas.

Based on what I can find about the company, their methods are quite sound based on the information that they've been given. Thus, they based their predictions on what GameStop told them they expected to get. Presumably, since GameStop is a publically traded company, this is from the company's published expected 4th quarter earnings report.

This shines the light on the real problem - Gamestop honestly expects to get 1-1.2 million PS3 consoles to sell in North America for the system's launch. Now, if we go purely on Sony's numbers (which at best say that there will be 1 million consoles in America for the system's launch, but could be interpreted to mean there will be 1 million worldwide at the console's launch), it's obvious that GameStop is living in a dream world.

And that's presuming Sony doesn't encounter any problems which will result in reduced production capability between now and November (remember - it happened with the PS2). And should the console be delayed past November, well, that's a whole other disaster to discuss in a different analysis.

Let's take a liberal estimate of 40% of console sales are done at GameStop's stores. If we presume the liberal numbers and say that 1 million PS3 units will be produced for all of the US, that would mean Sony would be wise to allocate 40% of PS3 machines to be sold at GameStop - meaning that GameStop's numbers are already short by 600k-800k. On top of that, since many fewer consoles will be for sale there, many fewer PS3 games will be bought there, and we all know that the games are really where the profits in the games industry lie for all levels. Let's say that one game per console would be expected to sale (very conservative; the number many in fact be higher). That's another 600k-800k in games that won't be sold during the holiday season, with those games probably being sold at $60 because of the price gouging sure to come from the next generation.

GameStop may be able to move more current gen games to compensate, but many of these are already discounted and are selling from $10 to $30 less. Thus, much lower profit margins on these.

In all, my point is this - Grindstone and everyone else have pointed, perhaps unintentionally, to a serious problem with GameStop's current business plan for the end of the year. The company is healthy enough to withstand the shock that even the best-case scenario will provide. However, the company is going to take a noticeable hit because they're counting on a boat that isn't coming to shore.

All in all, I'd love to see a revised report from Wedbush Morgan that account for GameStop not paying attention to the news.

vc @ Mar 21st 2006 8:49PM

Nice post, 32_Footsteps. +1

Mike @ Mar 21st 2006 8:57PM

I don't care what everyone says, Nintendo Revolution WILL be bought in nearly every household in the united states (and probably europe and japan).

Why? because it will cost less and have many more features. No one else can boast a library of games as big as nintendo's when the Revolution debutes.
Over 20 years of amazing games will come with it.

Graphics don't need to get better. the games will.
As #5 said, Nintendo will outsell the PS3, and probably will outsell the x360 as well.
Its just a matter of how many Revolutions nintendo plans on producing, because people definately will be buying them

Game dude @ Mar 21st 2006 9:00PM

I think that the PS3, will no doubt jump ahead of the Revolution, but these numbers do seem to be questionable.

I can't see Nintendo launching the Revolution, with only 750k's units. Since Revolution should be much easier to manufacture than PS3, Nintendo should be able to have at least 1 million units ready for launch.

Although Nintendo states that they aren't in "direct" competition with Sony, I'm sure that they want to get enough consoles out there in the market, so that people will at least consider buying it.

It wouldn't surprise me though, if Sony takes that amount of lead over Revolution. I'm still looking forward to the Revolution though, and I hope both consoles succeed.

Btw, Joystiq, keep up the good work with these PS3/Revolution news items.

bradtwitty @ Mar 21st 2006 9:03PM

#3 - they are our asses to talk out of if we please
#21 - you my friend, are so correct

All I have to add is "disc read error", have fun with your first run PS3s. I know the first run PS2s are stilling running strong, hah.

bradtwitty @ Mar 21st 2006 9:05PM

No no no, #22, you are correct.
#21, Didn't even finish reading your post. Boring!

matt @ Mar 21st 2006 9:12PM

There is no way the PS3 will beat the Nintendo Revolution. One reason is that the PS3 gameplay isn't that different than the PS2, Just better graphics and a weird controller that looks uncomfortable. The Nintendo Revolution will literally revolutionize gaming. I bet when the Xbox 3and PS4 come out they're gonna copy the Nintendo Revolution's idea for the controller. Also the companies. You can trust Nintendo, They have been around for 20 years and I have never heard of any one of their consoles or games being defective. As for Sony, 3 million out of their first 9 million sold PS2s were defective, And I hear a lot of complaints about the PSP being the most defective game console ever, I wouldn't trust Sony with an expensive console that doesn't have any difference in gameplay. And another reason is developement, The PS3 will be hard to develope for (as told by one of Sony's employees that got fired for revealing this)and when you do the math the 32 Mbz(Mbz means megabits, MBz means megabytes) that it will be using will mean the loading times could be up to a minute, Thats pretty long for the so called "next-gen" console. The last reason is the price. I don't know how much the Nintendo Revolution costs to manufacture, But the PS3 costs about $900.00 to make one unit. Do you actually believe that Sony will be selling the PS3 for $500.00? to keep the profit for each unit like the PS2 they would have to sell it for $745.00-$825.00. I think it will cost about $600.00-$700.00. But its not just the console, Its also the games. Don't expect games for the PS3 below $60.00. Also Sony is using this new tech to the PS3 that makes it so you can't play used games on the PS3. When I say it can play used games it means no renting, No borrowing, No selling used PS3 games, And no refunds. Sony has always been full of moneywhores and could care less about the costumer. Nintendo however, actually cares about its costumers and will sell the Nintendo Revolution at an affortable price. They said it would be below $300.00. I think will cost somewhere around $200.00. Thats a pretty good deal for a console thats actually trying something new instead of just beefing up graphics. In my opinion, The PS3 will be a definite rip-off. Thats why the Nintendo Revolution will beat the PS3.

J B Cougar @ Mar 21st 2006 9:16PM

First of all, since when is Gamestop the go-to store for deciding the next-gen console war? The last time I went to one of these cesspools of braindead customer service I ended up standing in place for 30 mins while a clueless mother bought a used Gamecube without any games or memory cards for her kid. It took 30 mins not because she was clueless however, but because the temp agency-supplied girl working the counter didn't know how to use the system. This was in addition to the "manager" who "worked the phone" with a family member discussing Christmas presents. Wonderful display of the best humanity has to offer.

Anyway: "There are many variables that will likely alter the ultimate outcome of the contest between Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft."

Yes, let the inner fanboy in me say it could be something like this: PS3 global launch fails miserably, if that, and the real surge of PS3's begins in 2007. Meanwhile, the "inferior" Revolution drops in June after the 360 tops the charts form here until then with -- finally -- a decent lineup beginning with GRAW.

Sony what? Who cares. Treat me, the end user, like a chump and I'll just buy another, better, and more readily available system for less money.

Glen the Hen @ Mar 21st 2006 9:23PM

Can you hear it people? Freight trains a commin'

Chucky's Cat @ Mar 21st 2006 9:26PM

IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN FOLKS. Anyone who thinks the PS3 is coming out in 2006 has rocks in their head. But wait...here's the good news...we'll all be able to save more money so we can afford it. I usually get every system but I'm iffy about the PS3 because they've been stalling about it's price which looks like a bad sign to me.

DocEvil @ Mar 21st 2006 9:29PM

I wonder if the 1-1.2M and 750k numbers are how many consoles the retailer was promised or if that is how many consoles the retailer ordered. It's a subtle but important difference, promised would indicate the ratios of console supply but ordered would indicate ratios the retailer expects to sell based on internal predictions...

I have also seen the rev quoted several times on forums as being $200 at launch. Was this announced somewhere? I thought Nintendo only promised less than $300?

If so it would seem to me that if Nintendo was intending to sell at $199 they would have announced 'less than $200' or if they were intending to sell at $249 they would have announced 'less than $250'. To me, 'less than $300' implies somewhere between $275 and $299. I'm not trying to be confrontational here, I just want to know where the $200 number came from? Did I miss an announcement?

Another minor point I wanted to bring up was Kutaragi's statement of 1M consoles a month until March 07. I wonder if he was talking figuratively meaning that (for example) Sony could launch with about 2M consoles and manufacture about 650K consoles a month and hence coming up with an average of 1M consoles a month. This would help explain how gamestop could expect to secure 1-1.2M consoles...

iceatcs @ Mar 21st 2006 9:31PM

I thought PS3 will be shipping 6 millions units worldwide by 2006, or is it mean to the March 2006, not end of this year?

6 millions units sound make sense for this article.

slow news day @ Mar 21st 2006 9:36PM

I think Nintendo is way under estimated. The have the ability to launch before Sony, and launch at a price desirable to consumers. Outside of the control, is there anything really exotic in the Revolution that would prevent launch sooner?

We still don't know the true cost of the PS3, which could be a HUGE factor if it's too expensive. Also, I have to agree, that it's going to be impossible to find one in the US this year, assuming they do release in November.

Paul @ Mar 21st 2006 9:39PM

This is crap. It's common knowledge that only the elite rich can afford a PS3. Nintendo prices their consoles to be aimed at actual incomes.

Anyways, I wouldn't be surprised if the PlayStation 3 has some issue that makes Sony recall them all.

And I'll sit there laughing.

nintendo fanboy and proud @ Mar 21st 2006 10:00PM

Im afraid that even I dont EXPECT nintendo to win this round. I think they deserve to, i think it would be good for the industry (so so good), i think that it would be good for the consumer (eyes opened! Prejudices melted away!) and i always root for the underdog no matter how much i admire his work...but it very prolly not gonna happen.

The PS brand is just too pervasive. And Nintendo is yet to shed its kiddy image, which will continue to damadge sales (but the new form factors of their console should help with this). i really cant see them selling the most consoles, no matter how hard i squint.

Making the most money, manking the most AAA games or bringing the most joy...thats a different matter.

justchris @ Mar 21st 2006 10:08PM

I stopped reading after about 12 comments, I just had to say this. Sony has said they will be releasing 1 million consoles a month PER REGION. That means 1 million in the US, 1 million in Japan & 1 million Europe. So yes, there is no way that Gamestop is going to get 1.2 million of the 2 million total units Sony expects to ship to the US this year.

Nintendo, on the other hand, has not said anything at all about their expected production or shipment. They may have spoken with gamestop privately, but I just can't imagine Nintendo's marketing department would let them ship less than a million consoles to the US on release when they already KNOW that Sony is shipping a million consoles. I mean, Sony told the entire world their plan. It would be a tad naive of Nintendo not to at least try to match Sony, if only so they can point to equal shipping numbers in their marketing reports.

Saq @ Mar 21st 2006 10:12PM

The revolution will outsell ps3 by 100% in 2006 because the ps3 will be delayed till 2007, just like vista DUH :P

iceatcs @ Mar 21st 2006 10:20PM

I'm worrying about Nintendo which most developers rather to make support all consoles to get more profit from publisher. How come they can make similar games for using the remote controller style with few buttons config. They might don�t want to re-engine most in the game because of Nintendo. Hope that remote controller style is not only one control for this system.
Good games will tell different, not how powerful they are.

I've promised on myself to getting Nintendo Revolution (Just for Nintendo games esp Zelda) and PS3.

Alex K. @ Mar 21st 2006 10:30PM

#1 everyone knows these numbers are BS. That many PS3s will NOT be availible in any retail chain!!
#2 this is assuming that people are willing to shell out the cash for the PS3. My guess is that a similar situation to the DS Lite will be happening (at least in Japan).

The Revolution may be Nintendo's strongest Japanese console, if they can follow the DS's footsteps. If the Revolution is anything like the DS in America, that puts Nintendo about 50-50 against Sony in the US.