PS3 to outsell Revolution by 33%-60% in 2006 (USA)

Here is my problem with that report, "If those expectations are accurate, and if GameStop's shipments are proportionate to shipments to other American retailer"

If I am wrong please correct me but didn't Wal-mart recieve more xbox 360's than gamestop, I am just saying aren't they quickly becoming a bigger game retailer. Yes Gamestop cators only to games and video game items, but I could have sworn Wal-mart had the displays up first and Wal-mart had more of them in stock. IF that is true, then didn't this report take the analysis from the second or third best video game retail chain and if that is true how good is its validity.

Isn't it like saying we, examine the game retailer with the fewest amount to see if all retailers will sell out though we know of another one that will probably have more. Doesn't make sense to me, but I could be wrong about Wal-mart. I just feel this analsyst doesn't take into context the illusion of where families will go compared to gamers, I remember alot of gamers going from game stop to game stop to here it was sold out, then one or two checking wal-mart with their families and friends and seeing them still there.

Also this same type of idea was posted by another report with the DS lite with somebody reporting DS lite selling out in japan when basically only checking the major stores in tokyo. That is my main problem with this research it seems a bit narrow in its examination but broad in its assumption.

this is the right time to say.

the PS3 will outCELL the competition.

shaka.

The analyst's and gamestop's actual comments were that gamestop expects 1.0-1.2 million PS3s in their fourth quarter, which runs from november to January. Sony announced plans to ship 6 million units by the end of their fiscal year in march, so that is about 1.2 million units a month. This means that to get to Gamestop's own estimate, they will have to be allocated roughly one third (or slightly less) of total worldwide supply each month for the first three months.

The real question should be how likely do you think it is that Gamestop recieves such an allocation.

Wow, why don't you guys just have the title as "Generic biased analysts provide uneducated guess on unrevealed console". That would pretty much sum it up.

Is this a case of Sony trying to get their stock back up after the price and release delays knocked it down a few notches?

I got fifty bucks Sony blunders PS3 just as bad as PS2 launch.

as a response to what gamestop "told" them they expected to get...anyone who reserved a 360 can vouch for gamestop's/EB's credibility in terms of how many units they were going to get on launch day.

When I reserved my 360 I was #13 in line, so I got one, but for months before the launch, EB and gamestop were telling people (including myself) that they'd have upwards of 80 consoles per store for pre-orders...the actual number of consoles ended up being around 20 consoles per store on launch day. In the end gamestop blamed the issue on MS not fulfilling demand, which was the case to an extent, but the bulk of the blame rested upon gamestop/EB for assuming that they'd be getting many more consoles than they actually got. I guarantee you when the pre-orders for PS3's and Revo's start coming in, you'll be signing a disclaimer that says you are in no way guaranteed a console on launch day, even if your #1.

I have always both loved and hated the way the people in media do their job (in reference to vc giving negative stars to Jesse J. Anderson), but I will leave that alone.
I have never thought much of Gamespot, or 60-70% of the analysts who get writen about. When they make such stupid expectations, and put blame on others when the fault is clearly on them (when gamespot blamed MS shortage of 360's for poor sales that Quarter), it just makes me think that no one knows anything about the industry or the people who make it up.
When gamestop says something I often cringe at the implications that one really foolish company representing a huge industry is makeing, unfortunately I agree with the headline.
The early race wont be as much about what one is better as much as it is about what one has brand power, and Nintendo doesnt quite have the brand power to outsell Sony in the early race.
Personaly however, I dont plan to own a PS3, but I do already own an xbox360, and plan to get the revolution... and I think that when some industry people said Nintendo will be the second console to own, they were right. That also may mean Nintendo could outsell both Sony and MS a little later on in the game.
Thats my take, and its as a grain of salt to the analysts.

Yet another analyst who doesn't do their research and makes predictions based on incorrect information...gee like we couldn't see that one coming.

For the record, before you DELETED my original post UNFAIRLY...the analyst I was referring to was not you (vc) since you are not an analyst. I was referring to "Michael Pachter and Edward Woo of Wedbush Morgan Securities."

Riiight, the console with the more awkward manufacturing needs (HDD, novel CPU, novel optical drive), launching worldwide simultaneously, will have three times the total shipping numbers of the other console.

Truly, they are geniuses.

I friging hate these types of articles... its all hype... forget it! all ya need to know is that Nintendo will be making the profit and Sony won't! that is the what you get from a business argument point of view!!!

as regard which console sells out... Nintendo definitely will if the initial stock is to be 750k and its a debate whether Sony's will just about make it!

as regards an earlier comment i reckon PS3 graphics are beyond Xbox360 but maybe im losing it because i hate soon.. yet then again im excited for its new console.. gimme a freekin boomerang controller - well at least after you've given me a Revmote 1st!

-ViVa la Revolution-

It appears that Sony must have some agreement with Gamestop to only sell the PS3 there since all their shipment, plus some will be going to Gamestop on launch. I feel bad for Asia, they don't have Gamestop, so I guess no PS3's for them!!

I thought Sony said it would be able to produce 1 million per month when they get production up, and that probably wont be until October.

Yeah, I have to agree with the people that say that article (not THIS one, but the original one put out by Michael Pachter and Edward Woo of Wedbush Morgan Securities.)

This is supposed to be some sort of professional industry analysis...



There are way too many "IF"s but the worst, by far, is the positively MORONIC suggestion that whatever number of units manufactured will be the number sold, REGARDLESS of price. No price has even been announced for PS3, and most industry experts are saying that it will cost $800 PER UNIT, give or take, at launch for PARTS ALONE... ignoring factory costs, recoup of R&D costs, or marketing costs. If they charge HALF that, it will be comparable to the XBox360 price, and lose them $400/unit sold.

Can a company the size of Sony with no OTHER profitable divisions afford to sell 2 million units at a loss of $800 million?? I know Microsoft is willing to lose money on theirs.

I'll have to side with Jesse, even if this gets me a -1. The post could have simply stated what the analysts said and allowed everyone to discuss it in the comments. That would have been simple enough. You could have also analysed it better and reported that it didn't make much sense as many of the comments have stated. Instead you went along with the bad analysis and did a lot of "ifs", leaving the good analysis to the comments. Seems like the weakest choice to make.

To your credit, I come to Joystiq to read the posts and click the links, not to go through the comments to get the information mixed with fanboy rantings. In this case, the comments far exceed the quality of the original post.