Nintendo plays numbers game, loses
Nintendo's most recent press release exhibits the interesting quality of simultaneously telling us something we already knew and something we didn't. The first part should be fairly obvious if you boast any familiarity with portly Italian plumbers: New Super Mario Bros. for the DS is a huge success in North America -- certainly nothing worthy of a collective gasp. Selling over 500,000 copies since its May release, the shell-smashing, block-bashing retro platforming trip has practically given Nintendo permission to nonchalantly reach into your pocket, feel around for a few seconds and make off with your wallet. What we weren't aware of, however, is that Nintendo really should have been sticking their hand into your front shirt pocket. That's where your calculator is. Nintendo claims that after "just 35 days on store shelves," the game has had a sell-through rate of "more than 20 every minute since the game went on sale May 15."
O RLY?
Be sure to mock us if our primitive thought processes are incorrect, but let's consider for a moment that there are 24 hours in a day and 60 minutes in an hour. That's 1,440 minutes a day, and so the 35 days that New Super Mario Bros. has been on sale (even though its been longer than that now) equates to 50,400 minutes. Divide 500,000 by that number and we get ... just under 10 copies sold per minute. Had Nintendo actually sold 20 copies per minute, they would have already hit over a million, and we're pretty sure that would warrant a press release all on its own. Dr. Kawashima is going to be so disappointed.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
josh @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:01PM
I would imagine they are basing it on the 9am-9pm of most stores being open. That would make the numbers match up.
Even at 24 stores like Wal-Mart, after all, you can't guy games late at night usually, because there is no one to open the cases... all the electronics employees are gone.
TECHSev @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:01PM
this might sound stupid, and i agree that nintendo's comment doesn't quite make sence, but if we consider that stores are only open at maximum, 12 hours a day (not counting walmarts and the such) their number might just make sence
Seve Savoie Teruel
VGRLive.TV = Comming Soon
piggy @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:01PM
Actually, if you factor in typical business hours (most stores are open about 12 hours per day), then the statement '20 every minute' isn't far off.
emosewami @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:01PM
O how I love big business fuzzy math. See, because the DS shows the game one 2 screens that automagically doubles the sales of each game.... or something. :)
J. @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:02PM
Yeah, but I think it's you he'd be disappointed in. Since when were stores open 24 hours a day?
Dirk Dorkelson @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:05PM
I don't know, "more than 20 every minute since the game went on sale" seems pretty unambiguous to me. Sounds like someone needs to play more "Brain Age."
snoopaloop @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:06PM
Sure there are twenty four hours in a day. But I can almost guarantee that most retailers who sell nintendo products or any video games for that matter are not open 24 hours a day but rather closer to 12 hours a day. So nintendo's estimate of 20 a min is definately more possible when you consider this fact.
Pii3.14 @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:06PM
I'll agree with the business hours thing. If you go with a 12-hour shopping day, the number is about on the nose. Most stores can't/won't/don't sell games 24 hours a day. The language is somewhat misleading, but it's nothing we're not used to from Nintendo, not to mention other hulking international conglomerates . . .
Snap @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:08PM
Joystiq owned again.
Derbeste @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:09PM
ummmm.....
Sounds to me like he's bragging that 500k is the success of Mario in NA, but then bragging about the WORLD WIDE success in the "20 per minute" snippet.
What are the world wide sales of mario for the first 35 days?
Would the math work if you used that number instead of 500k?
If it does....or is close....then he's merely guilty of not being clear on what he's bragging about....but at least he's not insane.
ed @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:10PM
OMG, lol so many NINTENDO fans on this site. JUST FACE THE FACTS
Derbeste @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:14PM
@#5 (J.) and others:
It's fair to use 24 hours a day. MANY stores that sell mario are open 24/7 like Walmart and Target.
If even ONE store that sells Mario is open, then those hours should be counted.
So the "business day" argument falls short.
Ludwig Kietzmann @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:14PM
Now now, let's look at the wording of this press. The game's sold "20 every minute since" it went on sale. EVERY minute since, meaning all the minutes between now and the day it went on sale.
We shouldn't have to be assuming things in order to justify the "facts" given in a press release. :)
Alkaiser @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:14PM
Remember when the Sony guys were bragging about how they sold 100,000 UMD movies, and then someone pointed out that they sold 1 million PSPs, meaning that only 1 in 10 people bought a PSP movie.
Yeah, it's moments like these that make it obvious that the PR guys should probably stay away from ever using math and statistics.
If you didn't study for in it college, and ignored it in high school, trying to break out those skills in front of millions of people is probably not the wisest of ideas.
Mephy @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:17PM
Well, if we're using the full 24 hours equation that Joystiq is using, NSMB is selling 20 copies per minute on its own in Japan. Using the proper 12-hour equation that factors in store operating hours, the number doubles to 40 copies per minute.
So yeah... NO, they're discussing NA numbers only.
Shad Genki @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:17PM
Let's assume that Nintendo knows math better than Joystiq for now. Most stores that sell games are *not* open 24 hours a day. Let's assume stores are open for a total of 8 to 14 hours per day; we'll say 12 hours is probably average. Based on your math of 24 hours, and 12 hours being 1/2 that, we'll multiply the 10 copies by 2, which equals 20 copies per minute.
Ryan @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:18PM
They probably meant 20 a minute worldwide. Who knows. It does give that press writer a black eye.
yoagner @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:18PM
do these figures take into account online sales?
because i can order super mario brothers in my underwear at 2am, if i truly desired
Grant @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:19PM
Ludwig is right, never does Nintendo imply that they're referring to "business-minutes" or anything like that. The 20 every minute figure is an attempt to average the sales out over a continuous time span, in which case every minute should be counted. Also, if you want to talk about business hours, there are stores open in Japan when all the stores in the US are closed... basically, if you look at all the time zones, there will always be mainstream game stores open somewhere at any given moment.
ElChibo @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:22PM
perhaps the 500k units is US only, but the 20 every minute is worldwide. Or that other person who commented about standard store hours is correct.
Pii3.14 @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:25PM
No Target by me is open 24 hours. And, as #1 said, you can't necessarily walk into a Wal-Mart at 3 a.m. and buy games.
crono141 @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:29PM
Jeebus people, you're taking their words as if from the Bible! Keep in mind this is japanese translated to english, probably by a mediocre translator.
Instead of being "literalist" with the whole 24 hour in a day thing and trying to prove Nintendo CEO's are lying bastards, why not figure out what he probably meant, which is what everybody except the N haters are saying, that he meant business day's/hours
Jeebus!
James Sorensen @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:30PM
wow half a million in a close to a month....
lets play numbers like we are powerful... not like any other systems have had a title this year that have reached 1 million in less time.... (Kingdom Hearts 2 = 1 mil in 4 weeks us / 1 Mil in 3 days jap, jap was last year though) thats just what game kinda popped in my head, just so i like how they act like upgrading an old game and reselling then saying ooo half a million... who knows, just doesnt impress that much
Derbeste @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:31PM
@9 The Super Target and Super Walmart by me are open 24/7 and sell games. I can also order them 24/7 online. There is always SOMEONE that will sell you a game any time.
Therefore either:
1) He is dead wrong for trying to use "business hours" to pad his NA numbers.
2) He is referring to a 24 hour day using word wide numbers.
3) He lacks 4th grade math skills.
Geist @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:31PM
Good lord people, we're debating what they meant on a press release? Does it matter? The damn game sold well. Period. Full Stop. The End.
Derbeste @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:32PM
I mean @19 (Pii3) ><
Looks like I lack 4th grade typing skills. Padump chink!
DBR @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:33PM
Ludwig, please quit while you're behind. Even your "supposed" grammatical error is an error on your part. Read the press release again instead of quoting a phrase.
"That's a sell-through rate of more than 20 every minute since the game went on sale May 15."
What about that is hard for you to understand or misleading?
The title of this post should be: Joystiq plays numbers game, loses
These numbers for NSMB are clearly based on a 12-hour business day – which I didn't even have to assume. It's common sense.
Got any?
...And Derbeste, your argument "falls short" on logic. /error
renaldo @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:34PM
10 every minute?
That sure isnt spectacular.
ill trooper @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:35PM
Where was all this hullabaloo when E3 Microsoft talking heads said '10 million Xbox 360s in houses by the time the PS3 launches? THAT, my friends, is SPECULATION and HOPE. Possible, but certainly not a fact yet. Who knows what will happen between now and then.
Companies do this fuzzy math all of the time, just look at the weekly top XBox LIVE games... Remember when 'The Outfit' demo hit, it made the top ten - a 360-only game that you had to download, that also had massive download problems, for a system that was impossible to find in stores at that time? In other words, Beyond Halo2, seems like it doesn't really take many people, and certainly not impressive enough numbers to get specific, to get on that top ten list. Somebody is not telling you the whole story about the LIVE 'Top Ten' when that happens.
I'm guessing Nintendo really just wants to say 'This game has sold like crazy.'
Maybe it's really trying to make us ask if any PSP game has done this well?
Ludwig Kietzmann @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:49PM
DBR, you must be reading a different press release. "That's a sell-through rate of more than 20 every minute since the game went on sale May 15."
It says that for every minute that has passed since the game's release, twenty copies have been sold. Not business minutes. Not daylight minutes. Minutes. EVERY minute since the game went on sale. That is what the sentence MEANS. I never said it was difficult to understand.
These numbers are "clearly" based on a 12-hour business day? I didn't see anything regarding that in the press release. I think you've mistaken common sense with blind belief of PR.
Alkaiser @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:55PM
Ludwig:
I don't think it's so much "blind belief of PR" as it is "blind Nintendo loyalty". Seriously, you guys defending the press release, Nintendo botched their math, their wording, and the idea in general was a bad one. Just say, "Hey, we sold 500,000 copies in under a month."
Is anyone online going to complain about how per-minute sales are not up to snuff with other fast selling titles? No. It was stupid, and on top that they messed up. Don't try and pretend they don't have egg on their faces, you only encourage them to screw up worse next time.
Kudos to Joystiq for pointing out another PR slip-up. Why not just let the numbers speak for themselves? People always gotta go and say stuff like, "500,000 copies is enough to fill 3 football stadiums" or my other favorite, "That's enough copies lined up end-to-end to reach the Moon!"
Ianc02 @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:58PM
500,000 in a month and we are supposed to be suprised/impressed. I think the writing was on the wall when Nintendo announced this game. Who really cares if the sell-through rate is 23.7 copies per minute or whatever, a great game will sell bucketloads upon release as did Kingdom hearts 2.
Of course the real strength of quality software is how well it sells after that first month or week even, Kindom Hearts 2 dropped like a stone from the Nihon -ese charts after a week.
bradtwitty @ Jun 22nd 2006 5:59PM
What has become if the internet?
We all know that he was talking about the U.S. sales, read the article. Also, I'm sure that he is talking about 12 hour days. Because, well I would guess that not many games are sold between about 10pm and 10am. Video game stores are closed, and while Wal-Marts and Targets are open, I guess not many people go to Wal-Mart at 3am to buy a copy of Mario, I know that they could, but we aren't talking about calculating pi, we are talking about the number of games sold.
12 hour day.
J. @ Jun 22nd 2006 6:02PM
As Geist (23) said, the story should've ended there, with the sales figures. But no, the editors had to try and make more of it by challenging them and go with the more controversial title of the article. Which in turn, IMO, justifies readers bringing up sales/business hours.
Jake @ Jun 22nd 2006 6:15PM
In common usage, the phrases "anally retentive," "anal-retentive" or "anal" were used to describe a certain style of behavior, and it is implied that this is due to a person clenching their anal sphincter, causing retention of feces. This is not necessarily literally the case, nor usually even intended literally.
A person characterized as anal-retentive is perceived as worrying excessively about "passing feces": little details of fecal consistency, color and aroma or as otherwise being overly uptight or distressed over ordinarily normal evacuation.
Today, however, the term is often used in reference to anybody seen as overly worried about small details and unable to adopt a philosophical attitude toward mistakes. This metaphorical usage has become so commonplace that the somewhat graphic literal meaning of the phrase is often overlooked by those using it.
Another term used in a similar context is "hair-splitting." The intended implication is that an "anally retentive" person needs to "loosen up" a little instead of "holding on to it."
Freudian terminology
Sigmund Freud proposed that in a child's early years there is a pre-occupation with the mouth. This is known as the "oral stage."
Then the child typically moves on to the "anal stage" which is characterised by the child deriving pleasure from bowel movements. The child discovers the pleasure which comes from the exercise of power (in this instance the power to hold on or let go.)
After the anal stage the child's development will be able to move on to the "phallic stage" when the child's focus of attention will shift to the genital region. Freud believed that conflicts with parents and delays during toilet training can cause a person to become fixated on anal control, which later manifests itself as a compulsive concern with order, cleanliness and retention of assets.
In this original sense, the term means simply that a person has retained traits from the anal stage of psychosexual development.
Popular culture
Phil Hartman played a series of popular characters on the NBC sketch comedy show "Saturday Night Live," including the "Anal-Retentive Chef," the "Anal-Retentive Sportsman" and the "Anal-Retentive Carpenter."
C. Grant @ Jun 22nd 2006 6:22PM
J.: The story should have ended there? With us regurgitating a press release? Let me just make sure ... you know you're at J O Y S T I Q.com and not I G N.com, right?
Also, a great source for future video game info is press.nintendo.com. Can't recommend them enough.
Ludwig Kietzmann @ Jun 22nd 2006 6:24PM
Jake, you obviously went to a lot of trouble in responding to the post, but there was no need to split hairs about it. You should loosen up a little, maybe adopt a more philosophical attitude. ;)
kleaner @ Jun 22nd 2006 6:28PM
somebody's been playing brain age a lil too much...
r @ Jun 22nd 2006 6:33PM
NSMB has already passed 1.5 million sold in Japan alone, despite releasing 10 days later than the US, so clearly it's not worldwide.
intel @ Jun 22nd 2006 6:42PM
"That's a sell-through rate of more than 20 every minute since the game went on sale May 15."
This is a subjective case. The paraghraph before it provides the context, defining duration and profit per duration; While a half-million in one month can be seen as 20 per minute in many cases, it is not true for all cases.
shelbi @ Jun 22nd 2006 6:52PM
were are the games
futurebiblehero @ Jun 22nd 2006 7:17PM
Seriously, how many stoners go out and decide to buy a Nintendo DS after midnight? Even worse, at most super Wal-Marts there is no one in the electronics section at that time of night ($120 game system that requires a modicum of effort, or $120 of junk food and GI Joe re-issues? I wonder).
I'd say that's a pretty significant thing to factor in there, too. Not too many people buy anything of that calibur after most other stores have closed.
fawazr @ Jun 22nd 2006 7:25PM
This was an obvious calculation based on a typical merchant's business day, but it's also a good opportunity to smash Nintendo for 'fuzzy math'.
nintendo fan @ Jun 22nd 2006 7:37PM
It's sad how people bash companies for possibly being wrong.
Nmaster @ Jun 22nd 2006 8:05PM
Well, how 'bout this, if you couple the US stats with the Japanese sales, which currently sits around 1.5 million, than by your math Nintendo's sold almost 40 every minute since it's US launch.
Ownge.
Chowweekly @ Jun 22nd 2006 8:06PM
1) The number is obviously based on the standard 12-hour business day but people have no reason to assume this unless they do the math.
2) Even if the number they gave was 10 it would still be misleading although technically correct. You couldn't neccessarily watch a clock tick off a minute and say "10 copies of NSMB where probably just sold!" because the sales where spread out over a month and are now much less than they were right after launch. The number is to make it seem that NSMB is being sold at a higher rate than it really is.
Let's just agree that this number is misleading for multiple reasons and be done with it.
Keith D. @ Jun 22nd 2006 8:13PM
By the way, 500,000 copies of NSMB wouldn't stretch all the way to the moon. It would only make it .018% of the way to the moon, which doesn't seem like a lot. But when you think about it, the moon is really really far away, so that's still pretty impressive.
MuKKa @ Jun 22nd 2006 8:17PM
@21
There's also 100+ million PS2s in the world compared to less than 20 Million for the DS.. So when you figure it out on a % of system owners who bought the game...
WedgeTalon @ Jun 22nd 2006 8:50PM
Wow! People people! Settle! You kids saying "nuh-uh!!! zOMG 24HRS!!! no way!", be quiet. Just because there are those trying to figure out how Nintendo GOT the number doesn't mean they are saying it's JUSTIFIED. (Though my money is soem wage slave just farked up.)
Now you people trying to figure it out, let's work backwards: the release says over 20, so let's go with 25. 500K/25 = 20K/35 (days) = 571/60 (mins) = about 9.5 hours a day. Ah ha! Now for someone whose life consists of a 9 hour daily grind, the numbers make sense! We'll take that 9 hour grind and double check: 500K / (9 * 60 * 35) = about 26. Mystery solved, bad math from a wage slave.
Oh, and by the way.... YOU'RE WELCOME!
jaja @ Jun 22nd 2006 9:52PM
#10 = true