How Microsoft might lead in market share
by Blake Snow 
{ Jun 26th 2006 at 5:00AM }
1Up has put together an objective piece on how the Xbox 360 just might lead in market share this generation as compared to Sony. From the article: "Keep in mind, Microsoft has a 10 million unit lead before PS3 even gets out of the gate. And there are going to be a hell of a lot of gamers buying 360s this holiday season because they couldn't get their hands on a PS3 or Wii... And with the Live crossover between the PC and Xbox platforms (and mobile), Microsoft's 'platform' will extend much further than just the box."All things considered, is this Sony's race to lose, or Microsoft's, Nintendo's to win?
[Thanks, Bobill]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
GSI @ Jun 26th 2006 5:12AM
The whole Live Anywhere (ie 360 --> Vista) part is pretty cool BUT the whole cell phone part? STUPID.
The perfect example of WHY it is stupid?
http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2006/06/19
Read that.
Anyways, after having owned my 360 for...I think 3 weeks(?) I can say that XBL is quite awesome. If MS can get games pumped out that appeal to a broader range of people then it would help them get more buyers of the system. My one (personal) big problem with the original Xbox was that there weren't very many 'good' 3D platformer games for it. Both the PS2 and Cube have more then enough but the ones on the (original) Xbox were kinda 'blah.'
Voodoo Vince could have a great game but it just got boring after a while...and that was a shame b/c the art work in that game was just awesome!
Swegamer @ Jun 26th 2006 5:18AM
I have always asked myself, why do we gamers care about market shares?
This is a strictly biz area. I don't give a rats ass for market shares. All I care off is good support and a flow of games for my console (which won't be a PS3 since it's damned expensive).
But come on guys... market shares? Why do -we- bother?
T-Man @ Jun 26th 2006 5:21AM
in answer to swegamer, because marketshare will usually net a console "big-time" 3rd party games.
and yea, it at this point it really is MS or Nintendo's game to win.
soco @ Jun 26th 2006 5:49AM
i totally enjoyed voodoo vince and even played it all the way through. the final boss giant level was just awesome, and i think it may have been larger than the largest colossus in SOTC. the music in the game was really good as well.
live makes perfect sense on mobiles, not so people can see what each other are doing, but for the simpler games. no one wants to buy games twice, and in theory with the whole live anywhere platform, you can buy Uno once, and then get the 360 and phone versions and play it anywhere. since i showed the game to my dad, and taught him how to play it once over live, i see he comes on and just plays the game in the 10-15 minutes free time he gets throughout different parts of the game, instead of playing bigger games. the same is true of mobile games.
i think it's quite possible MS will come out on top. they just need to expand their selection of games earlier and build a larger base. right now that's occuring a little too slowly. they need some fun party games like singstar and DDR and whatever. (although DDR is on the way, i think).
i think they also need to live arcade and split that into two groups. 1) full games that are smaller than 1gig and that don't have to be retro or in 3d, but just have to be something enjoyable to one group of people. indy devs, especially some of the japanese ones, who still like the art of 2D can still distribute solid games easily without the cost associated with a full production.
2) then a separate section for the free-time games. then enforce the whole 50MB limit here and what not. while they're at it, they should enforce the simple arcade games like UNO work with the remote.
i do like the idea of them forcing companies to add some new stuff instead of just using an emulator and throwing 30 games on arcade.
they also need to get their little advertising firm up soon and offer in-game ads to everyone, and get rid of the cost of playing online, which i imagine will come next year anyway.
Fan @ Jun 26th 2006 6:06AM
I really hope Microsoft does not win the console wars. Any other company goes.
Can you imagina a company who allready owns PC gaming win console gaming too? The entire game industry will be controlled by Microsoft.
Oh and 1up sucks. It has to be the worst gaming site out there and I hope they fall over and die.
Armin @ Jun 26th 2006 6:25AM
Microsoft can only win if Sony screws up, not because the Xbox360 is a "fantastic" product.
Tak @ Jun 26th 2006 6:39AM
This coming from myself, a Nintendo fanboy. Even though I've never owned a Microsoft console, I must say that I grow more and more impressed the more I read about it :). This Christmas, I could purchase a Wii and a 360 at the same price (maybe even less) as a PS3. I might have to go and do that.
Amos @ Jun 26th 2006 6:42AM
You know, I was about to criticize your description of the article, until I re-checked it myself and noticed the name. It's actually rather mis-leading. It's not about Msoft at all, but how Sony -may- be failing and where/how they might need to start picking up the slack if they don't want to lose their fans. It sort of just mentions these factors in the 360s favor of the battle, really, rather then dwell upon them and how "l337" the 360. The author is very un-biased and objective about what genuine gamers and the public have been and are going to be thinking about the PS3 if thing's don't change soon. It's a good piece, if you have a few, if nothing new.
Varian @ Jun 26th 2006 6:56AM
This 'article' is a joke. The only way the Xbox 360 can win in worldwide marketshare is if the other two consoles self-implode.
FACT: Xbox 360 is selling WORSE than the original Xbox in Japan (how'd you manage that, Microsoft?)
FACT: Xbox 360 is selling WORSE than the original Xbox in the United States. The software attachment is around the same as the original Xbox.
FACT: Microsoft may be able to 'ship' 10 million Xbox 360s before the PS3 launches, but Microsoft will be lucky to 'sell' six million before the holidays. As of the end of May, Microsoft has sold 1.7 million Xbox 360s. A very poor start.
With Microsoft pissing away their head start and the non-presence of the Xbox 360 in Japan, I don't see how anyone can seriously, with a straight face, reason the Xbox 360 would 'lead in marketshare'. Maybe this 1up writer wants to be hired by Microsoft like Che.
Currently, the sales of the Xbox 360 are matching the Dreamcast's numbers. And you know what that means...
Christopher Rydberg @ Jun 26th 2006 7:08AM
Um, I think everyone has missed the point. Microsoft is already the market leader in the next gen. The have millions of sales and no competitors. The question is whether thay can hold that lead which, as some of you have mentioned, they could easily do with better diversification of their gaming offerings. Problem for them is Japanese developers have little or no interest in the XBOX 360 and that won't change unless MS can get some marketshare in Asia.
Sam @ Jun 26th 2006 7:11AM
Varian,
In your little comarisons you forgot a couple small details...
FACT: Xbox has been out for five years and had time to accumulate sales, where the 360 has been out for, like, seven months. Try comparing instead the current 360 sales with Xbox sales as of ITS seven-month mark.
FACT: Xbox 360 had massive console shortages at launch. Know what that means? It means there was more demand than supply, meaning that Microsoft didn't even have enough consoles to fulfill everyone's wish to purchase a 360. The 360 is still as popular, so they probably will sell close to 10 million by the PS3 launch.
Try looking at the actual information that you're saying instead of just blurting out useless and false things without thinking.
apoc06 @ Jun 26th 2006 7:14AM
First of all, Microsoft has barely sold more than 1.7 million xboxes. They have only shipped 3 million. For the article to take Microsoft wishful thinking as fact for the basis of the article is nonsense. How will they sell 8.3 million x360s in five months? I truly don't see them able to ship that many in the first place anyways.
Ki @ Jun 26th 2006 7:15AM
Its quiet possible, microsoft are blending in next-gen with affordibility. I found the core system, a haven for budget gamers who just want play games casually. I think wii is good, but it lack of technical power has kinda put me off. I just find it pointless to buy a console, that doesnt add more then a generation of games I already played. I find PS3 good, but its too expensive especially since I'm paying for stuff, I dont even want.
Petey @ Jun 26th 2006 7:27AM
At Sam #10:
YOU better do the thinking, because YOU are the one trying to paint with truth your fanboy "evidences", Varian is comparing the sales between the consoles for the same launch window & fact IS that the 360 is selling worse than the original one. About you excusing the 360 because of the shortages... HELLO, WAKE UP!!! shortages are way behind, MS noly managed to sell 2M 360 till know, wich means that lots of unsold 360 are gathering dust in the stores, you should try to learn the diference betweem shipped & sold units... ;)
ihavenoideawhatisgoingon @ Jun 26th 2006 7:32AM
Varian,
"FACT: Xbox 360 is selling WORSE than the original Xbox in Japan (how'd you manage that, Microsoft?)"
Did you look at this week's sales figures from japan??
- Xbox 360: 1,407
- Xbox: 15
how do you figure it's selling worse in japan with those numbers...last i checked 1,407 > 15
Max Howell @ Jun 26th 2006 7:32AM
I recently bought a 360 after playing on my mates'. I'm well impressed, I've only ever bought Nintendo before, but I think the 360 is the best console I've ever owned.
And frankly this is soley due to Live. The arcade makes casual gaming easy and great fun. Demo downloads mean I can try out the arcade and full sized games easily and it's brilliant to have so many cool demos to try out. I've met loads of people on Live, and the fact that everyone has a headset makes it easy to have conversation, unlike typed conversations which are PCs mandate. Acheievements/gamer points give you a real incentive to race all the tracks/ find all the powerups, and increase the longevity of games by maybe twice. Reputation means that everyone seems to play fair and nicely, I played WoW for 6 months and eventually left because everyone was an arsehole, and that was because nobody was accountable for their actions.
I have to give credit where it is due, the 360 is brilliant fun and it is because of Live.
I'll buy a Wii though, and expect to prefer it ;)
Shawn @ Jun 26th 2006 7:45AM
#14, ihavenoideawhatisgoingon
Are you really that stupid?????? You are comparing a sales number of 1,407 for the xbox 360 to a number of 15 for the original xbox. The xbox 360 has only been on sale for under 6 months yet the original xbox has been on sale in Japan for 5 years. I had to laugh my ass off when I read your comment. VOTED... WORST JOYSTIQ COMMENT EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ack @ Jun 26th 2006 7:58AM
Whoa there!
Varian actually has his number right:
-XBox 360 sales dropped 25% last month, giving them a total sold volume of 1.7 million in North America as of June 1st, 2006:
http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=12922
You can compare this against the original Xbox, which had sold over 2 million in North America within it's first 7 months:
http://videogamecharts.com/page3.html
So yes, the 360 is indeed selling worse than the original XBox over the first 7 months of their lives. (Guess why? There's no Halo, nothing that really stands out).
wEet @ Jun 26th 2006 8:04AM
The original XBox sold over 500,000 units in Japan, over the course of its life. (This is considered a major flop.)
The 360 started off reasonably strong, selling 100,000 over Christmas 2005, but sales have collapsed, it's now down to ~6,000 units a month.
That's what, ~72,000 units a year?
Certainly the introduction of the low-price Wii and the high-end PS3 won't help 360 sales either. Look how PS2 sales still raging while original XBox and 360 sales are flatlined:
http://www.videogamecharts.com/page5.html
Kazi @ Jun 26th 2006 8:06AM
Interesting read, but its pretty much everything that's been argued about since the press conferences before E3. They dropped the ball and every PlayStation fan is waiting for them to pick it up before Nintendo and/or Microsoft intercepts it. I'm waiting eagerly for the release of Wii and PS3 to see who's going to grab it and run. I'm personally cheering for Nintendo because of what they've given me with the DS.
Sony's arrogance and down talking of the importance towards third parties almost garners them the title of a love to hate villan. Until they straighten up and acknowledge the fact that they're being obnoxious and crude they might lose 3rd party support as Nintendo did with their ever so famous N64 blunder.
soco @ Jun 26th 2006 8:08AM
for the same time period during launch the 360 was selling worse than the original xbox, and i think it still may be. it gets occasional 400% boosts with some titles like N3 and what not, but the numbers are pretty low. although i think the number is still a bit low.
the 1.7 figure is also just the US figure. the numbers will likely remain slow throughout the summer, but from august/september on, they're going to pick up a lot.
the tie-in rate wasn't true at launch. i believe it was one of the higher tie-in rates in history. being that several 360 games have consistantly been placing on the top sales charts, i'd imagine the tie-in rate is similarly high for such a low number of sold consoles.
http://ve3d.ign.com/articles/675/675638p1.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
# Tie ratio of the Xbox 360 by the end of November (average number of games sold per console): 3.9.
# Tie ratio of Xbox in equal number of days: 2.4.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
anyway as many have pointed out, it's not about what MS has done right, and there are still quite a lot of things they have and haven't done right, it's about what Sony has done and may do wrong.
cap-n-crunch @ Jun 26th 2006 8:10AM
Sony must fall!! be it Nintendo or X
My Dreamcast demands vegence!
Ethan @ Jun 26th 2006 8:13AM
so what they are saying is that microsoft might get the leftover sales from people wanting to get a PS3 or Wii, so that makes them the leaders? There is no way Xbox 360 will have a 10 mil lead over the other two consoles, they have like 4 million right now, and that includes the launch, which is usually a consoles highest selling period. If they get an extra 6 million consoles sold in the next 5 months, I want someone to gut-punch me. Now I leave you with the US hardware sales charts since the time the 360 was released.
Next Generation Begins
Month PS2 Xbox GameCube Xbox 360
November 2005 531,000 197,000 272,000 326,000
December 2005 1,500,000 415,000 606,423 281,441
January 2006 272,000 89,000 66,000 249,000
February 2006 299,000 88,000 67,000 161,000
March 2006 273,000 83,000 63,000 192,000
April 2006 206,995 38,987 38,028 295,381
May 2006 232,000 26,000 33,000 221,000
Its getting beat by the PS2 every month except April. And it sure isn't doing to well in Japan either.
Ki @ Jun 26th 2006 8:17AM
"xbox 360 has only been on sale for under 6 months yet the original xbox has been on sale in Japan for 5 years. "
I dont see how's that any fairer than comparing the xbox 360 with the ps2 sales.
Ethan @ Jun 26th 2006 8:18AM
...............Next Generation Begins................
.....Month......PS2......Xbox....GameCube....Xbox 360
November 2005.531,000...197,000..272,000.....326,000
December 2005.1,500,000.415,000..606,423.....281,441
January 2006..272,000...89,000...66,000......249,000
February 2006.299,000...88,000...67,000......161,000
March 2006....273,000...83,000...63,000......192,000
April 2006....206,995...38,987...38,028......295,381
May 2006 232,000 26,000 33,000 221,000
Ben Hobbs @ Jun 26th 2006 8:25AM
Isn't the xbox360 almost like twice the price that the original xbox was?
I'm sure that the price of the 360 has more to do with minute sales differences between the original xbox and itself.
This doesn't mean the PS3 is going to come in and mop-up sales, it simply means that the xbox360 is probably on the borderline price that people are willing to pay for a games machine, birthday, christmas present etc... It's not selling so well in Japan because its not Japanese, Sales are strong in the US and Europe for one of the most expensive games consoles ever to debut and I'd be pretty sure
that no games machine before it at the same price or higher, has even close to 10% of the sales of the xbox360.
KR @ Jun 26th 2006 8:29AM
You guys spitting out your irrelevant "facts" that have zero effect on the consoles that aren't even out yet - be sure to check back here when the PS3 bombs in Japan and is outsold by Nintendo, then when it bombs in the U.S. and is outsold by Microsoft. I'll be waiting.
johnjacob @ Jun 26th 2006 8:58AM
Robbie Bach-head of the Xbox division
"So, again, from the position of where we are on the platform from a competitive perspective, we feel like we're in a great position and off to a strong early start. I think it's also important on the Xbox business to point out something that has changed, which makes some of the commentary we hear a little bit awkward to respond to. People aren't used to a console manufacturer launching in multiple countries at once. And so we see a lot of analysis that compares the Xbox 1 launch, where we did launch just North America to this launch. We see a lot of analysis where people are looking at weekly and monthly run rates and trying to extrapolate. You have to remember, we're in 19 countries right now. So, going and talking to your three favorite retailers around the corner isn't going to get you data that's going to be meaningful to understand how the business is progressing. And so that's a paradigm shift from what's been done in the past, and we will be by the end of March, as Peter Moore said last night, in almost 30 countries."
someone @ Jun 26th 2006 9:04AM
If were still thinking this generation is about the gamers, were foolish.
M$ will get the gamers, they're the only ones going for them.
Nintendo will pick-up the non-gamers, those that might be interested in games at least.
Sony, if Blu-Ray wins, will get the I-want-a-cheaper-Blu-Ray-player audience.
Pencil $havings @ Jun 26th 2006 9:10AM
People that spell names with a dollar sign- M$ or $ony, need an enema.
don_sf @ Jun 26th 2006 9:13AM
they cannot be serious, until xbox 360 sells more than 2 per year in japan then they can call it.
the power that sony has put on the market with ps1 and ps2 will continue with the ps3. people who have games for ps1 and ps2 can easily buy the ps3 without affecting their life. easy transition from current to nex gen.
did you know that ps2 is out selling the xbox 360 now? and polls AFTER e3 in gamefaqs (where more casual gamers are - look for walkthorugh etc) said that sony and nintendo will win, basically they want to buy sony and nintendo products. the playstation brand is the strongest and most powerful name assoicated with gaming, it is known that parents see their kids playing xbox and say turn that playstation off.
and we know exactly why the ps3 is $600, were getting alot for our money, but why dont you ask your self what makes the xbox 360 have its price? what makes it so good, what does it do that you couldnt do in last gen?
xbox 360 premium - $399
recharge kit - $15
wifi network adaptor - $99
hd-dvd player - $99-150
5 years xbox live - $250 ($50 a year)
sony playstation 3 60 gig version - $599
+ hdmi, add full 1080p support for movies and games,
add games on blu ray, add free internet gaming,
add built in wifi, add usb recharger,
add linux operating system, add 60 gb hard drive,
add backwards compatibility for about 12,000 games out.
and what really annoys me is xbox fan boys talk about halo like its the ultimate weapon for sony, xbox 180 had halo 1 and halo 2, but how many ps2 sales did it affect again?
ps2s were selling on ebay for $2000, the xbox 360 wasnt that high, but when your product is called playstation 3, boy you are going to generate some intrest around the place. sony say they will have 2 million units at launch, and a furhter 2 million by the end of the year. and another 2 million i think by may or february. this means sony will sell 6 million units blind foldedly.
this also means 6 million blu ray players out there through ps3 sales alone. thats why sony are so clever, they are easing the transition. lets say your not intrested in blu ray or hd-dvd, but you have 30 ps2 games, and you buy ps3 for obvious reasons. you have a blu ray player sitting in your house, when you see blu rays in shops you will be eager, you are likely to buy some blu rays at least. whereas the only way you are going to have a hd-dvd player is buy choosing to actually buy it with your xbox 360.
good that nintendo are doing i dunno how many years of backwards compatibility, but sony have something that will damage and hurt that. the linux open source operating system. IM NOT, but believe me many many people will download all the nes roms snes gba n64 ps1 (very very very possibly ps2). and what kills it really, you get what 512 mb of flash in the wii? but you get 60 gb in the ps3.
sony are the only ones arrogant? they have the right i feel, SONY ps1 and SONY ps2 are the only consoles to reach the 100 million mark - something to talk about right? lol i remember microsoft getting intervied beofre the launch of xbox 180, they said it would be the best selling system totally wiping out their competition, boy that is what i call arrogance, especially after they got outsold 5:1 with ps2 and lost 5 billion. pathetic.
WEe @ Jun 26th 2006 9:15AM
The original XBox launch at $299usd, same price as a 'Core' system. The hard-drive version is $399, which is $100 more than original XBox with HD.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox#Price_history
It's interesting to note that although Microsoft hasn't announced the price cut, retailers are already throwing in games in order to move units.
Here in Canada they've thrown in PGR3 with every HD enabled 360.
http://www.futureshop.ca/catalog/proddetail.asp?sku_id=0665000FS10066139&catid=23363&logon=&langid=EN
That's a $60 savings.
MosquitoControl @ Jun 26th 2006 9:24AM
Don, that's a lot of wishful thinking.
A whole lot.
The1 @ Jun 26th 2006 9:28AM
6. Microsoft can only win if Sony screws up, not because the Xbox360 is a "fantastic" product.
Posted at 6:25AM on Jun 26th 2006 by Armin
..... And the PS3 in YOUR OPINION is the great thing since sliced bread?
ac @ Jun 26th 2006 9:30AM
"Keep in mind, Microsoft has a 10 million unit lead before PS3 even gets out of the gate. " Eh since when did they hit the 10 million mark? Last time I saw they were edging on 3-4 million
Endejas @ Jun 26th 2006 9:36AM
At first I was going to write out a long paragraph full of reasoning for my predictions on the console war, but I notice the smaller posts are the most effective.. so I'll sum up everything.
Microsoft and Sony will duke it out head-to-head allowing Nintendo to sneak past and regain majority. I think the ideal arrangement for marketshare would be: Nintendo in first, Microsoft in second, and Sony bring up a close rear. This will keep Microsoft stressing for a shot at number 1 (and keep it in the console war at all), Nintendo gearing up for (and hopefully, to no offense) ready to lose majority, and Sony performing a huge overhaul on the their console plans.
Don Vee @ Jun 26th 2006 9:48AM
Lets take a step back and look at the big picture, so we can see what everyone is bringing to the table:
First and foremost, the most important thing: the games...
Xbox 360 - So far we're seeing some very promising new exclusives that are beggining to shape the console (i.e. Gears of War, Halo 3) as well as growing third party support (apparently its a helluva lot easier to develop for than PS3)
Nintendo Wii - Classic first party franchises that everyone knows (and most love) as well as promising third party support due to its much cheaper development costs as compared to PS3 and Xbox 360. I have a feeling we're going to see some very unique and intersting games from third parties that will do very well to supplement games like Mario and Zelda and please the seemingly hordes of Nintendo fans.
PS3 - good first party franchises (metal gear solid, devil may cry) but its left up the consumer to decide whether thats worth the extra price. In addition, most mainstream consumers, in America at least, are not so interested in those types of games. Unless it becomes the IT system (in my opinion, very unlikely with the steep price tag and inevitable shortages), third party support is going to diminsh rapidly due to high development costs.
Gaming Experience
Xbox 360 and PS3 are going to offer very similar gaming experiences, with very slight differences. The PS3 will have slightly better graphics, but all in all, the same types of games will be developed for them. They will also share many third party titles.
Wii offers a unique gaming experience. It is one that many people are interested in, and that is why there is so much hype surrounding it. Most gamers are going to want the wii for this experience, most likely to supplement another console (xbox 360 or PS3) In addition, the wii is perfect for younger gamers and as an introductory console for people who are new to gaming.
In my opinion, it will be a tight race between microsoft and nintendo for the lead in market share, altough I don't neccessarily think they are competing in the same sense they have in the past. Sony will be lagging behind. The xbox 360 will probably end up becoming the first console of choice, simply because it offers a "classic" gaming experience. But I think that the Wii will also have its core legion of fans (who seem to coming out of their caves after the undeniable failure of the gamecube), hardcore gamers who are eager for a new experience to supplement their other console (an Xbox 360 or PS3, but probably an Xbox 360), plus many more who are new to gaming.
Houp @ Jun 26th 2006 9:56AM
Personally, I think the numbers sold gimmick is a load of bull. I bought a 360, day one and a week later I got the 3 red lights and had to send it back. They sent me a new one in less than a week and I have't had any problems with it since. Now how many people that owned a PS2 that was defective have had to trash it since Sony wouldn't replace it and then go buy a new one? Several of my friends own a PS2 for RPG's (same reason I bought one), but they've had to buy a new one almost every year or two (Mine broke as well, but I had a PC and an Xbox to play on when it did), which adds to the number of consoles sold.
Anonymous Rep @ Jun 26th 2006 9:59AM
ac / #34 - Under projected sales figures at this moment, the 360 should have 10 million unit sales by this holiday.
All you 1.7 million unit morons - THE CHART IS U.S. SALES ONLY! World-wide sales were at 3 million units. GET YOUR NUMBERS STRAIGHT!
ANYONE WHO DIDN'T READ THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE - Your comments here are basically worthless - I don't care if you're a Sony / Nintendo / Microsoft fanboy, you didn't do your homework, and you're just spouting things off. GO READ THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE. (Sorry - I'm in a grumpy mood this morning.)
The basic article was all about Sony - and how it's their market to lose, and how Microsoft / Nintendo can and are filling in. I especially like the comments about how Sam stated that one of Sony's key marketing people is now - just gone, especially for someone who was entrenched at Sony. "In any case, people have speculated that her departure had something to do with Peter Dille, formerly of THQ, who was recently brought on to run the company's marketing efforts, or that she took the fall for the disastrous E3 showing and was forced out. Either way, one can't help but be intrigued by the timing. You don't just up and leave before the launch of the PlayStation 3. "
Here's another snip that should be getting comment: "The loss of rumble in the PS3 controller was another blow. I don't know, Rumble is a feature that seems standard nowadays -- like having analog controls, a pause button, or a wireless connection. Somewhere Sony stated that it couldn't fit rumble and motion sensing technologies into the same control, which seemed like a made-up excuse (the guys at Immersion seemed to agree, saying that it technically shouldn't be a problem -- of course, that would require Sony to pay them quite a sum). Also, PSM posted a funny clip of a third party PS1 controller from 1999 that offered both motion sensing and rumble. What's up now, Sony?...It's a shame, because without rumble the PS3's dual shock feels extremely light and cheap. Remember how the original PS1 controller felt? Not the first dual shock, but the original one. It feels kind of like that. Which is to say, it's really light and kind of like a toy... unlike the 360's controller which pretty much feels perfect."
And on the HD / Blu-Ray issue: "I'm actually not as concerned with the $600 price at launch -- Sony is going to sell out of the initial million or so units no matter what -- but more of how much Sony will be able to lower the price over the next year or so. Sales of both the PS1 and PS2 didn't really take off until the consoles hit that $200 price point -- it could take more than five years for the PS3 to get that low. It also seems like there's a bit too much riding on Blu-Ray. Sure, some people bought the PS2 because it doubled as a DVD player (a halfway decent one at that), but there really isn't much of a market for high-definition movies yet (especially given that there's no established standard). And you didn't need a brand new (HD) TV to notice what DVDs had to offer over VHS."
He does mention how Sony has Japan, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, and backwards compatibility all in their favor, which is quite true.
But the Playstation brand has it's drawbacks: "This should go without saying (especially in Japan and Europe), though Sony's arrogance isn't winning them any favors right now....Perhaps it's this arrogance and/or disconnect from reality that is rubbing people the wrong way. That Kutaragi still thinks the PS3 is too cheap, comparing it to a fine dinner as opposed to cafeteria food, amazes me. Of course, he also looks at it as a computer -- but then again, he did the same thing with the PS2...remember Sony's flat screen PS2 monitor and partnerships with AOL, REAL, Macromedia Flash, etc. that never materialized?. (Though, some suggest that this sort of tactic is all just for tax reasons). I'm sure Sony has great intentions for its new box, but it's still a games machine first. And given that it's $200 more expensive than Microsoft's, and $400 more expensive than Nintendo's, you have to wonder how many people are going to choose it as their first platform of this next generation."
And that - the final statement - is probably the key point. Your FIRST platform? Probably not. Eventually - when the price comes down? Sure - but by then other prices will have come down so much more it's not funny.
And remember - at NO TIME has Sony ever said that playing games against each other on their version of Live will ever be free - while Xbox Live now has over 3 million subscribers and still growing. If you want quality, then you pay for it. We all know that - which is why any kind of FREE live service may sound good to begin with, but after six months will have you screaming so loudly that you'll be heard, well, in Japan.
Taz @ Jun 26th 2006 10:16AM
All of you ramble about post console sales without reasoning that the 2 juggernauts of the console industry haven't even released their next versions of gaming goodness. Sure Xbox 3sucky has a lead, and probably will into 2007. But trust me, this will not be the case by late 2007, as Nintendo's Wii and Sony's PS3 have had a full year to show us what they have to offer. Backwards compatibility is a HUGE market seller. Sony has more to gain then nintendo by this, for as big of a fan in retro gaming we all are, nothing compares to being able to play games we enjoy today as opposed to 10-20 years ago. Sure mario and zelda were a blast, and alot of us still play it on the emulators out there on our pc's, but I would sooner be able to play games that I still have disks for. Games like GTA and Metal Gear. Blu-ray will not sell this console, mostly because a recent poll showed that only about 24% of households even own a HD tv set. So it all comes down to the games. Which system will have the best games. Playstation wins this because not only will they have great games, they already have tonnes out that will play on their new system. Wii will be ok, probably be closer then ever with Sony for market shares, but again, I am afraid the 360 will be left sucking behind again for the same reason as the original xbox. To little to late, or in this case just plain to little. Only a few original xbox games were considered great, and so far besides Oblivion, nothing really stands out for the 360. Yet.
GTA IV exclusive for the 360 would probably help MS sell their consoles in america, and if I was them, I would try my hardest to get it and release it and Halo 3 respectively next year. Then make online gaming free for all, and make their revenues off of their market place taking cuts into downloadable content and Arcade. Then get out a MMORPG of their own, like World of Warcraft, and charge the same price as their Gold service now. These would really help sell their system.
Ninegauger @ Jun 26th 2006 10:17AM
The best part is that Devil May Cry and Metal Gear Solid aren't first party titles even, so when Sony was talking about the unimportance of third parties you know they're either stupid or lying. Does anybody really think Sony could carry a system with 1st party games alone? What've they got? God of War, Jak and Daxter... that's all I can think of.
For $600 though I'll pass... and really only regret the loss of Devil May Cry, though I'm hopeful they'll port that sucker over.
C, Ravitch @ Jun 26th 2006 10:30AM
This comment is to Varian, now by no means am I a fan boy!! I have supported ALL 3 systems this Gen and WILL support ALL 3 Nex-Gen, but dude where do you get your facts?? Yes MS is doing poorly in Japan and that prob. won't change but to say that the system is doing poorly here is a person suffering from Sonyfanboyism!! Before you make a JackA$$ of yourself for all to see have the facts straight!!!!
Natiahs @ Jun 26th 2006 10:46AM
That 10 million number is going to bite M$ in the ass when this November rolls around and they've sold about 5 million systems worldwide. Investors don't like it when you miss projections by half.
If 360 sales continue on the current trajectory, they'll rack up 1 million sales between June and November in the US, about 30,000 units in Japan, and a few hundred thousand in Europe. That is NOT a hit. I loves my 360, but M$ will be very very lucky if they place 2nd in this generation. Personally, I think they'll be where they've always been - a distant third.
Natiahs
MosquitoControl @ Jun 26th 2006 11:00AM
"Backwards compatibility is a HUGE market seller."
Which makes no sense.
All the money and effort going into something as ridiculous as this.
How many 360 owners are buying new Xbox games? How many are playing more Xbox games than just Halo 2?
The PS3 will likely either have half-assed BC like the 360 or have a physical PS2 in the box. Which raises costs. You're paying for the PS2 again. Which, for me, would be the third time, since I had one go kaput.
BC is a huge issue but I really don't know anyone that uses it, or uses it past the first 6 months of a system's lifespan. Going from Oblivion to Fable just makes the eyes bleed and the babies cry.
Art Guy @ Jun 26th 2006 11:03AM
don_sf - Since you seem to have inside information, I was hoping you could answer 10 questions.
1. Do the PS3 controllers really come with free rechargeable batteries as you implied?
2. Does the PS3 come with a headset and remote?
3. What games are going to be playable in 1080p?
4. PC games run in massive resolutions and can have more than 512 MB of memory for the videocard alone, how many games throughout history have been too large to fit on a single DVD?
5. I don't want to pay a premium on a format that looks like it will lose. When did/will Blu-Ray win the next gen format war?
6. Current HD-DVD discs have more space and the movies look nicer than Blu-Ray. When will Sony get dual layer Blu-Ray discs working?
7. I was disappointed to find out that all my PS1 and PS2(!) games are not compatible with my brand new PS2. Where can I find the PS3 backward compatibility list so I'll know which games will work?
8. Sony has never said online gaming will be free. They did say that Sony wasn't going to charge money since they won't be providing any servers. The servers will either have to be set up by the players (possibly very laggy) or the publishers will have to set up their own servers which they will have to pay for out of their own pocket. So who is going to pay for the servers and what will be the motivation for publishers to make an online game for the PS3?
9. I'm actually annoyed by the idea that the Wii doesn't have an ethernet connection at all, so those of us who don't have a wireless system would have to upgrade to get online or buy some type of adapter. When did WiFi become a necessity that I had to pay extra for, rather than being completely optional like on the 360?
10. What kind of warranty will the PS3 come with?
8====p @ Jun 26th 2006 11:04AM
rabid fanboyism...hilarious. I am always amazed by how people insist on declaring their allegiance to products that dont even exist yet. Furhter more each console will provide entertainment that warrents their cost to millions of consumers, trying to tell someone that your prefered console is better is entirely subjective.
MosquitoControl @ Jun 26th 2006 11:15AM
"how many games throughout history have been too large to fit on a single DVD?"
And is it worth paying $100 to not have to get up and switch discs a handful of times per year.
The GC had far less storage than the other two consoles, yet I remember switching discs only twice, both times with Resident Evil 4. Just twice - once for each time through.
Much happier leaving the couch from time to time than paying $100 for a useless drive with half-assed movie playback that could turn out to be useless.
Sony forcing me to be a paying pawn in their HDDVD battle, when I have no interest in either format unless media costs the $5-$10 of DVDs, is why I won't buy a PS3.
It's sneaky, greasy, and untrustworthy.
neale @ Jun 26th 2006 11:27AM
those who want a ps3 i doubt will be willing to lay down what theyre asking for, especially in UK. £430 is a lot. sure it'll sell out to start with, but what i think will happen is that most will wait for the price drop, which i doubt will come any time soon.
then when game sites start doing say GTA4 side by side comparisons, we'll all be in for a treat.
i think 360 and wii will lead, especially wii. everyone likes a bargain
theres a reason you;ve got -2 stars don_sf
killer_roach @ Jun 26th 2006 11:30AM
I don't care if the sales number is 1.7 million or 3 million... the operative point here is you'd have to be smoking crack to think that the 360 will sell 10 million units before the PS3's release with the current rate that they're on. Keep in mind, even with the 3 million number, that includes the rush of the launch. In the remaining five months, they might be slouching to just over an installed base of 4 million, 5 million at the high end... kudos to Microsoft's spin machine for making those numbers seem like an unqualified success. Smacks more of the Dreamcast, if you ask me.
suffah @ Jun 26th 2006 11:40AM
Don,
Out of the millions of PS3 owners who buy the console for gaming, how many do you think will pay $39.99 for bluray discs just to "check out" the technology?