How Microsoft might lead in market share

I personally hope that all the consoles do well because I plan on owning them all. Most people I know do not just own one. They each have their pros and cons, so why limit yourself. Same thing when people compare PC and Mac, like you can't own both for some morality reason. Each has their place and does it very well.

"I have always asked myself, why do we gamers care about market shares?"

It matters because if you can only get one console, and you get one that doesn't get the games you want because it's less supported, you're screwed. But it depends as well. The PS2 is great for single player games, but sucks for multiplayer. The Xbox has a few strong single player moments, but it's strength is online multiplayer.

I think people are over-estimating the failure in Japan. The Xbox 360 will already be everywhere else in the world. It should do well in the Americas and Europe, which dwarf the importance of Japan. International Japanese developers know that.

Even the highly-esteemed Kojima said that Japanese developers have been defeated by western developers (in a review in the latest Game Informer, check my site for the quote).

For me, the only exclusive I care about is Final Fantasy on the PS3. That's it so far. Gran Turismo, Devil May Cry, and Metal Gear Solid are not good games to me. I'd rather Burnout, Ninja Gaiden, and Splinter Cell, all of which are multiplatform (well..the PS3 finally gets Ninja Gaiden Black, but's it's already on Xbox).

A lot of people would like a PS3, but Sony is just forcing many to wait. They haven't proven $600 is a worthwhile investment to me yet. Kaz Hirai said a Playstation lasts 10 years. Then why have I had to fix so may Disc-Read-Error problems?

Why is everyone here mentioning the Dreamcast as a failure at this time?

Don't you realize the Dreamcast was a huge hit hardwarewise? It set all the records. It hit 1 million units in 90 days. It had 300,000 preordered. Sega made almost $100 million on launch of the system.
This time, in the Dreamcasts life, it was doing very well.

However, it had no third party support, which isn't the case with Microsoft, it was following up a huge failure, which isn't the case with Microsoft, and its hardware wasn't terribly comparable to the other consoles of the generation, which isn't the case with Microsoft.
As much as people here like to think Microsoft has a lot in common with the Dreamcast, they're just wrong. EA wasn't even supporting the Dreamcast, meanwhile they're throwing everything they can at the 360.



Lastly, Microsoft will probably have the biggest holiday season this year by default. Maybe they won't hit 10 million, but they'll probably be close. Why? Millions of people will be running out to get a Wii or PS3, but there will be such little supply. Rather than go home empty handed they'll likely see the cheaper (than the PS3) 360 on the shelves, in heavy supply since Microsoft had more time to prepare, with dozens more games sitting next to it.

Simple supply will likely give Microsoft the stronger holidy season. While the demand will certainly be greater for the other systems, there just won't be enough to go around.

"Same thing when people compare PC and Mac, like you can't own both for some morality reason. Each has their place and does it very well."

Most people can't own both for financial/desk space reasons.

As for the consoles, no, people don't often stick to just one.
But they find favorites.
And with this round being so costly, a large group of people can't afford $1250 for gaming consoles, without considering games. They'll have to pick and choose to start, waiting a few years for the others.

Yikes, the fanboys are out today! Personally, I think people are thinking way too deeply into this:

The PS2 is outselling other consoles for multiple reasons, which include it being a PlayStation, but more so the fect that it costs $130 - that's $120 less than a 360. With stores like GameStop and EB Games around, you can get a PS2 and 5 or 6 games for the price of a Core 360. Haven't we realized that consumers will pay the cheaper cost unless it's Christmas/Birthday seaason? Since everyone's comparing price, how come maybe 2 or 3 people have brought up that fact?

As for the 10 million units and nothing selling until this fall, that's expected in the gaming industry. Everyone posting here has to know by now that none of the best games launch during summer or spring - they're all saved for the holiday season because of more lax consumer spending. If the 360 gets a price cut this holiday season and costs $250/$350 for Core/Premium, expect parents to pick up a 360 and/or a Wii when they can't find the guaranteed-to-be-sparse PS3.

Jeez, people. Relax! Get the console you prefer and have fun! If you're going to dump on a console, you've got to have better reason than "It sucks". I want the 360/PS3/Wii combo, but wheen you can get two of the other consoles for the same price as one of the competitors, it's pretty hard to justify spending that extra $500-600 unless you're rich.

And rich, i'm definitely not.

The main story of this argument is that there is the potential of Sony being knocked off its throne, bottom line. There isn't one person that could tell me with a straight face that this is going to be an easy win for Sony.

I don't need to hear about x units here there, or PS history lessons, we're talking today / tomorrow. When Xmas rolls around and parents are going to get their kids their next console guess what, if its hard to find and costs a heck of a lot more than anything else they're going to opt for the item that's right there on the shelf at a lower price.

Here is another thought there is a 50% chance that bluray will not win the war. So what then? UMD2.0 movies? I'm not worried about the next gen HD DVD format this is a gaming console.

Regarding the need to exceed the storage of a DVD here is a thought. Games come out with 2 discs, a game disc and an install disc, the install disc uncompresses extra data that wouldnt fit on the game disc to the console's HD. I dont need some unadopted technology forced on me for the sake of some company to make more money.

Some Sony fanboys are just ignorant.

1.7Millions consoles sold is for USA ONLY. and there was SHORTAGE for over 4-5 months. At this point, with their SUCCESSFUL europe and australia launch, they should be around the 3.5-4M xbox 360 SOLD. (with June in the bank, that figure is possibly at 4.5M as of July 1st in a few days).

Obviously, selling 10M before 1st PS3 sold isn't really possible but MS could sell 10M before the end of 2006 (after the all important holiday season). by the time xbox360 = 10M, PS3 should be at 1-2M, and Wii also.

Everyone's got the answer, don't they?

Truth is, the 360 doesn't have a killer app yet. Plus, a lot of people don't like Microsoft. Sony, on the other hand, has a huge fan base.

People are waiting. They are waiting to see what the PS3 looks like (still, to this day, we have not seen a single game played on the PS3).

Skip ahead to November... The 360 now has killer apps that have come out or are coming out soon... Gears of War, BioShock, Halo 3; and a slew of AAA multi-platform games. The PS3 doesn't really have much from what I've seen that interests me.

Sound familiar? From a purely conversational standpoint, this generation, Microsoft and Sony have switched places.

Whether it's Sony doing the wrong thing or Microsoft doing the right thing, I think it's absolutely fair to say that Microsoft looks poised to take the lead in market share.


And I still think Japan needs it's own console. Their games are all designed for them anyways, with hardly any western titles ever breaking into any top sales lists. If a developer is creating a western-styled game, which is what most of us buy, why would they even be concerned with how that console's sales are doing in Japan?

I also have an xbox360 I just turned in my ps2,gamecube so I could get some more games.Its a great system with live arcade and downloadable content and music/movie trailers.The only problem with the ps3 including the price is its online network platform.How is sonyo all of the sudden start updating and keeping fresh content on a new system when socom3:us navy seals, sony's #1 online game can't get updated!! In my opinion microsoft and nintendo already won me over sony thinks too much of themselves.Lets just say this,I wouldn't not be sad if I could'nt get a ps3 at launch.would you?

I just wanted to point out that this article isn't really an article that 1up put together. It is just a very well thought out blog by none other than 1up editor Sam Kennedy!

Sam Kennedy = Awesome

All I want to add to this topic is I hate summer when all the kiddies are out of school. I try to read the comments but I get a headache after 5 minutes.

If you want others to read your comments or even take you serious please follow theese rules;
1. Please use some sort of Proper grammar.
2. Check your spelling. "Know" is not the same thing as "now".
3. Leave the name calling for the playground.
4. Post a link to your references.
5. Check your facts.
6. I almost forgot, Get off my lawn!

It feel like Sam Kennedy is becoming the head PR of Microsoft. currently 1.7 in US and another 1.3+(estimate) for the rest of the world so it's 3 million+ mark. MS didnt even hit their 6 million projection yet. This dude went so far ahead and predict they will hit 10 million mark??? WOW, unbelievable and this is actually coming from a guy that works in Gaming Industry.

For what i think, WII might have a better chance to be the market leader more than XBOX 360 but if sony can announce a price drop after their supply problem, Sony might have chance to defend its throne. As for M$, Since they used the same strategy as dreamcast did, they are again heading the same way.

Any system that launches at $600 is destined to fail. The average Joe's gonna look at that price tag, laugh, look at the 360 and go home happy.

backwards compatibility is important.

the ps2 was backwards compatible with probably all the games in someones collection of ps1, it also had a dvd player built in as standard. you could sell your ps1 (if you really want to) and buy the ps2, and you were left in no bad position.

if you loooved the n64, and you still wanted to play it, you would have to reserve some space out there for it.

and as soon as the ps2 come out, they didnt say 'ok dont make any more ps1 games now', its better for them and its better for you. you can buy great games that come out for ps2 for another 2 years. and u dont need to have the ps2 there. i cant say the same for xbox 360, especially since they have/are gonna stop backwards commpatbily.

blu ray is set to win the dvd battle, its pretty obvious. 5/6 movie studioes are supporting it, it displayes 1080p, and has much more space. hd-dvd will only ever reach 60gb, whereas they are already anoucngin 200 gb blu ray disks. obviously this is not for games, but one of the main attractions for nex gen is to be able to record your own hd content from your tv or hd camcoder, and blu rays performance and space is better for this.

Hey guys. I would have to say on the topic of market shares that I actually have no clue about second and third, but I do have a strong belief that the Wii will come out on top. I am an xbox 360 owner myself, and I know that I, along with many others (check the site that my name links to), will be buying a 360 and a wii, which will cost the same as one not-sucking ps3 package (im not ripping the ps3 here, just saying theres a package that sucks, and one that doesnt, kinda like core and premium). I know that almost all the Nintendo faithful will be buying the Wii, and I am sure people who have enough money to put it up for a ps3 could also buy a Wii. With the Wii being the second console of choice to all these people, and the first to the faithful, it is hard to say that it won't come out on top.

Number 1- Wii
2 and 3- tossup

I don't live in Japan.

Therefore, I don't care how many Xbox 360s sell in Japan.

I don't like most Japanese-style games.

Therefore, I *really* don't care how well Xbox 360 does in Japan.

You keep telling me Japan is the key to success, but last time I checked, the population of the United States and Europe is many times higher than the population of Japan.

I think we can completely disregard Japan- and Japanese developers- and the Xbox 360 will still kick major amounts of ass in the market, and be the best choice along with a Wii (if you really want some Japanese gaming, you'll get it on the Wii, anyway).

PS3 owners will have Metal Gear and Final Fantasy. They can keep them. Both franchises are tired and more than outclassed by stuff on the competing consoles. I'll take Oblivion over anything made by Square-Enix, and I'll take GRAW over Metal Gear. Add in Crackdown, Dead Rising, GTA 4, and Smackdown vs Raw 2007, and I'm perfectly happy with my 360.

Nothing on the PS3 could entice me at this point.

Well it hink this will be a hard fought battle. BUt i actually think no system will DOMINATE at the end of the console cycle.

I mean when you look at the numbers and everything it COULD go either way.

All i know is... i'm getting all 3 and will enjoy each of em.

600 bucks may seem like a lot... but so is 400 and 500. Its all relative. If you want it you'll find a way to buy it and i know TONS of people personally that cant wait for a PS3 even if their not rich. I also know a ton of people who like their 360.

Fact of the matter is MOST people still see the playstation brand as quality and its a testament to that fact that a system thats 6 years old is STILL selling so well. You can argue about the price point all youw ant, but its the games that matter to the majority of the customers.

So whichever system has the most games a majority of people will want will sell the most this christmas, You cant overlook the fact that the 360 will be out a whole year ahead of time, which is good for them. But that CAN be a double edged sword too and while XBLA is nice, you still have to remember a lot of people dont have broadband even now to even care about that. Same with HDTV and 720p and 1080i/p etc.
All that stuff is just for the hardcore.

I think this Xmas will be very intresting, i mean even with the 500/600 price point MY personal local gaming store has one heck of a list of 50-200 buck deposits on PS3, One store i know of has 50 and another has 80... they didnt even have half that for the 360 when it came out, so even with the bad E3 showing, PS is still a quality name to a majority of gamers.

So right now i think it can go either way, but i strongly feel this gen will probably end up more evenly split between the 3.

I cant even begin to fathom the numbers because even this gen its lopsided (even WITH defect systems) of 100 mil pS2's and barely 50 mil GC/XBoxs.
So i'm sure we may see numbers more inline with each other like say 150-200million units (hopefully more casuals pick up the new systems) and it'll probably be more evenly divded between the 3 this time around. (I've said that multiple times haven't I,s orry for being redundant)

in any case i hope all 3 do well, the gaming industry is better off with competition or else titles become stale (like Madden and what not).

Also... do we really need to comment on rehashed games since all the good selling ones ARE basically rehashed games? Halo/Graw/SvR/MGS/DMC included. Most of the big games coming out ARE either sequels or recognized brands as that's what sells unfortunately, so you really cant hate on the PS3 or 360 in that respect. You make what sells, simple fact. I mean there's a reason there's 12 FF's, and 8 DQ's and 5 Dynasty Warriors and a new Rainbow Six every 6 months =)

I also wanted to point out... i think exclusive titles will be VERY rare this time around.

Most developers see more money with multiplatform games.
Sure there may be time exclusives, but really who wouldnt want to make a game on as many systems to reach as many customers as possible?

First of all, to the person who kept saying "Fact".... There is no "Fact" here, only speculation. We only know what Nitnedo and Sony are telling about next-gen. We have no idea how they are going to execute their respective strategies. Thos of us who paid attention to the PS2 launch, knows sony can talk. They can flap thier heads like none other. But when the cards are on the table, sony has the validity of a politician.

Like remember the "SOL on PS2" booth at E3? Or... that display where they were showing downloaded HD movies streaming off the PS2 HDD.

And speaking of Japanese Developers who hate the 360...
http://www.the-magicbox.com/0606/game060625d.shtml

I choose to stop speculating. I choose to wait for the big three to release... till they are on consumer hands. I choose to wait till the war actually starts. Because, you wanna talk about things we don't know... Is the Wii actually comming to america this year? Will MS drop the price?

And someone posted some interesting numbers up there. Alot of console sales were in the 2-3 hundred thousand mark.. and then more then doubbled in December. MS has their first full holiday season comming up. And they will have the goods.

I agree with whoever said it's dumb to think MS will do well this holiday season because they will get all the people who can't get a PS3. How's that for backhanded compliment?

I've said it before and I'll say it a billion more times- nothing can stop Sony. Go through your laundry lists of facts, specs, sales, etc etc. Doesn't matter either way. Sony is just going to win. You'd like to believe that everyone reads gaming blogs and has seen their E3 footage right? Right? So if you live your life in front of a computer, well you just KNOW that everyone is dissing Sony this time around and they are going to do this and that and it'll fail and all the stuff.......

Just like I wanted to believe that everyone scoured the internet and knew just how rushed and bad "Xmen 3: The Last Stand" was. (the movie- yes I know I'm splitting hairs here, hear me out) Hurried script, new director, questionable ideas. OF COURSE it's going to be crap and a franchise killer and......

Wait what were the opening numbers? How much? Uh oh.

The lesson for today: Never substitute internet for reality. People have enjoyed the PS1 and 2, so it's going to take a act of god to sway public opinion that the PS3 is going to be anything but great. And personally I don't think 600 is crossing the line for obscenly priced anyway. Yes it is WAY high but like someone said here, it's all relative.

I have a wicked problem with the 360. I just can't buy it. My moral code will not allow me to. One or two of the future games looks intriguing, but the hate of Xbox, Microsoft, and everything they stand for, including business practices and whatnot, will always prevent me from ever buying the thing. I don't hate the system. I just equate it to the devil, that's all. The games are nice, the system is evil.

Just to clear things up: 360 sold 3.2 mln worldwide by April 06. Meaning that shortage-less April, May and June are on top of that. Add about 200K/month in US, none in JP and, I dont know, 100K in EU, M$ should be polishing off the 5th million pretty soon.

They then have about 5 more months to sell another 5 mln. Hmmm ... I dont think so, unless they do a launch-scale ad campaign come fall and sell 1+ mln/month.

Its very ambitious and unlike that M$ will be able to pull off such a turn around.

LaughingMan -

Biggest problem with that is it is not a good idea to bank on brand recognition. It didn't exactly do much good for Sega and Nintendo, both of which came off of highly successful consoles. Sony wasn't the big dog in video games, yet they came right out and took the world by storm with their first offering. They didn't do it with brand recognition (their name was starting to falter around then), but did it by creating a simple, easy to use, easy to develop for console that undercut its immediate competition (Saturn), which was also technically superior but difficult to use by the way, by $100 and had a year head start to build steam.

Simple fact is that brand equity is a difficult beat to get a hold of. Giants like General Motors have suffered by sitting on it too much and even others like Pan-Am have gone under completely because they thought that their name was so powerful that up-starts would never take away their business.

If anything, brand equity plays in Microsoft's favor, having the second most recognized and respected brand behind Coca-Cola:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_Best_Global_Brands

Sony is nestled in at #28 and falling at a faster rate than MS is, and has the largest negative percentage of any of the top 100 companies, indicating they are not doing business right. Buying Sony's brand is managable, but buying Microsoft's would take the US Federal Government to manage to pull that off.

But that clearly helped little in the previous generation. Brand equity means bupkis. Coke got burned by New Coke afterall, and they've had the most recognized and trusted brand for decades. It is all in market positioning. When it comes to hardware, be it DVD vs DiVX, VHS vs Beta-Max, game console vs game console, the guy who gets the product to the market first and gets the big head start usually ends up as the winner, which may not necessarily the best. Microsoft will have a lot going for them, be it a 10 million unit lead or 3 million unit lead. A lead is a lead, and 3 million customers is significant no matter how you slice it.

There are just too many unknown factors in this upcoming clash of the titans. How many of those PS3 customers will actually be playing games on it? Will Sony's historically poor attach rate combined with a lower install rate hurt sales of PS3 titles or will they convince their customer base to buy more games? Realistically, how many people really give a crap about brand names when time and time again, brand names have fallen to competition? Realistically, how bad will the $600 price tag hurt? Does the power really matter, especially after Sony spent the past 5 years convincing customers that it didn't?

Conventional wisdom points to Microsoft taking a lead this generation, but then again, conventional wisdom doesn't work too well either.

If anything, just call that lady with the fake Jamaican accent on the Psychic Hotline. You'll get a far better prediction than anyone here can pull off.

You know what a lot of the fanboys are missing is that Sony has completely missed their audience with the PS3. I actually have a very decent job making good money (study hard in college, it pays off big time) and I'm not interested in buying a PS3. I can afford it. That's not the rub. It's that none of the games on it look fun to me. I'd rather get a Wii and a bunch of games for that and my 360.

From number 68

The lesson for today: Never substitute internet for reality. People have enjoyed the PS1 and 2, so it's going to take a act of god to sway public opinion that the PS3 is going to be anything but great. And personally I don't think 600 is crossing the line for obscenly priced anyway. Yes it is WAY high but like someone said here, it's all relative.

Yes many people do subsitute the internet for reality, go to nyc and ask the average women if they date online buddies and most would say yes or talk with people that investied in the ecommers business that went bust 5 years ago but, back to gaming. You said its going to take an act of god to sway the public. Yet again 4 years ago apple swayed portable music listerners to dump thier sony walkman and pick up the revolutionary ipod instead and now ipod owns the portable music market a market which help create the sony playstation, but back to gaming again. Many people did enjoy the ps1 and ps2 and many more enjoyed having DREs on thier playstations and many more enjoyed buying another playstation which is true. An act of god wont sway people away from sony playstation, hell im even sure jesus got tired of DREs on his heavenly ps2. When christmas rolls around and when the mainstream gaming public AKA casual gamers and soccer moms gets officially informed about the ps3 they will want to pick one up. But when the masses of casual gamers and soccer moms find out that the ps3 cost 600 dollars then it will be a different story. Casual gamers will wiiiiiiii in thier pants and soccer moms will do a spiniing 360 fall and faint to the floor, both purchasing gaming powers wont be able to afford a ps3 for a couple of years. What does this mean for sony, the ps3 wont be able to dominate against rivals. Will casual gamers pay 600 dollars just to play MGS4 or Madden, maybe. Will soccer moms pay 600 dollars just let thier children play disney games on thier ps3, no i dont think so. The price of the ps3 alone will not sway gamers from buying a ps3 towards a 360 or a wii however it may abstain casual gamers from buying a next gen console since many casual gamers think nintendo wii is kiddy xbox360 sucks and yet alone cant afford a ps3. So there you have it the mainstream public is officially doomed from owning a playstation. If anything atleast the ps2 is on its way to a ten year lifespan espicially with games like yakuza and god of war 2, it gives casual gamers a greater reason to hold on to thier ps2s instead of playing ps3 that they cant afford. Ps3 will loose the next gen console war simply because of its huge reduction of the casual gamer fanbase. Me personally i think the wii might dominate globally but regionally i dont know. Wii appeals to both hardcore gamers and non gamers alike. Its ok if its all relative but when image concious people think everything is all abolute espicially at a 300 price point then everything is ok. Either way the ps3 wont dominate. As a hardcore gamer im buying a Wii60.

Why do people keep saying that the PS3 will cost $600? Bundles people, you will have to buy the bundles. You can expect the PS3 bundles to START ~$800 and go well beyond that. The PS3 will continue to be sold in bundle only form until well after the holiday season. So you're not really plunking down $600 for the PS3 (which is about what a 360 bundle cost at launch and many considered ludicrously expensive) you're going to be paying upwards of $800 for it.

And right next to that will be the Xbox360, for $399, with more games, and not sold as a bundle. Will average Joe consumer choose the PS3 in that scenario?

Let's also not forget that 360 sales will likely be STRONGER this holiday season than last because they will have better games, not be bundled, and be readily available. It is definately Sony's game to lose and if they are this arrogant before their console even comes out, how bad will they be when the fanboys lap up the first round of units and what tune will they be singing when sale plummet as people aren't willing to pay $1k for a gaming console?

people do look at brands,

sony is known and respected for making high end consumer electronics. sony products are always priced higher, but people always pay more for a sony product - otherwise sony would loose out and the cheap goods will win. people like to see SONY on the stuff.

it matters which brand it is, there is nothing special about xbox or microsoft, microsoft does not have the same equisite appeal as sony does. someone who buys sony products has style. that is why the ps3 will always appeal to more people than xbox.

when you pay $600, you can see where your money is - the wifi, blu ray, 60 gig hard drive etc, but you cant see the value with xbox 360s price.

blu ray will eventually be the market leader, it is only waiting for hd-dvd to fail. hd-dvd is broken technology, just like xbox 360 is broken (with wifi, hd-dvd player, power brick, hard drive - not compact at all). they havent even got 1080p on it. and whats worse is a hd-dvd player costs something like 700-900$ to manufacutre, but they are selling it for $500, they are making a loss, i dont remember one successful company who has done this for consumer electronics, consoles yes. when you walk into your shop and notice 7/8 movie studioes worth of blu ray disks and a tiny stack of hd-dvds, which one are YOU going to be more attracted to? the way sony have executed the blu ray battle with ps3 is really clever. ps3 has a very strong chance of winning the console wars again, this will drive blu ray. if it was a matter of choice, e.g. add on blu ray player, it would not work because people will feel they do not need it - just like xbox hd- dvd addon. this eases the movement into the next format, many many many households brought ps2 as a first dvd player and then waited for the price to come down on a sony stand alone. i have to hand it to them, they are clever.

xbox 180 was widely successful, it got out sold by its competiion 6:1 and also lost 5 billion moneys. it also sold a total of 5 units in japan over its lifetime.

- and now that you have a collection of xbox 180 games, aaaww you cant play it on your 360. well i will have no problems with ps2 games on ps3.

I say that Microsoft will certainly win over Sony. However, considering the various polls among several different sites, I've noticed that Nintendo is actually gaining the most from Sony's $600 PS3 price tag. I say Nintendo wins for next-gen console.