Chew on these 360 numbers
by Joystiq Staff 
{ Jul 23rd 2006 at 6:48PM }
Gamerscore Blog has posted some very
- ... the platform grew more than 125 percent and resulted in 1.8 million console shipments during the fourth quarter. This brings our installed base through June to 5 million consoles with 3.3 million in North America, 1.3 million in Europe and 400,000 in the rest of the world.
- Key profit drivers for the platform include Xbox 360 software and accessory attach rates, which remain very strong.
- The Xbox 360 accessory attach rate remains the highest ever for the first eight months of a console launch in the US.
- By holiday 2006, we will have an expected catalog of 160 high-definition games.
- Xbox Live now boasts a community of more than 3 million members worldwide, with more than 6 million expected by this time next year.
- By Holiday 2006, we believe we will have shipped more than 10 million Xbox 360 consoles worldwide.
- E&D forecasts fiscal year 2007 guidance for Xbox 360 unit sales between 8 to 10 million consoles. The yearly guidance implies that by the end of the fiscal year we will have sold 13 to 15 million Xbox 360 consoles since launch.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
DesignerKid @ Jul 23rd 2006 6:59PM
I recently purchased my 360 (a couple weeks ago). Little did I know that I would have to purchase EVERYTHING separately. I mean, what? They couldn't have just packed in a cable so I wouldn't have to buy a rechargable battery pack?
They might boast about their numbers (which are still underwhelming) but I'm actually quite pissed about how they've gone about everything. Previously I didn't care much about wireless but now, I really feel like I need it. But not at another $100.
Ethan @ Jul 23rd 2006 7:06PM
With only 5 million sold now, there is no way they are going to have 10 million sold by the PS3 launch like they said they were going to do before. A consoles launch is supposed to be the time they sell the most consoles, and they ruined that by not having enough available, and the ones they did have available breaking.
marcin @ Jul 23rd 2006 7:12PM
Xbox 360 will easily sell 10 million this holiday.
reason why is that the PS3 wont be available for most; if most even consider the purchase.
the wii is a little toy and no one will take it seriously except for in japan. but hey, we all know the japanese are not normal.
Deth @ Jul 23rd 2006 7:17PM
Actually, the wording is "shipped" 10 million worldwide. That will be pretty obtainable, IMO.
Cheers!
KawF @ Jul 23rd 2006 7:18PM
If I'm not misreading the article, it clearly states that the number of units are counted as the number of SHIPPED units. So as we all know by now according to many here, that means that the actual number of sold units account for at most 80% of the shipped figure. Some 10% being replacements and 10% being left unsold in warehouses and in stores.
At least that is what is "generally" accepted when it comes to a certain other company... But Microsft wouldn't LIE, would they?
vidGuy @ Jul 23rd 2006 7:29PM
The 360 will see amazing sales around the time of Halo 3's release and after the first price drop. Until those times, sales will likely continue their trend of medicore growth. I do expect the 360 to sell well this Holiday season, though.
Having a high accessory attach rate isn't something to boast to consumers about... like DesignerKid said, it's a pain in the ass and the wallet to buy everything separate. But, the premium package is a good deal for the extra $100, so I can't fault them too much. Plus, if everything was included in one box, that thing would be upwards of $600, and for that price you could get the man-killer PS3! [sarcasm]
Notice in the sales figures that Japan is included in the "rest of the world" stat, reiterating how much their lack of sales there hurts. The two competitors will easily outsell the 360s lead in Japan THE FIRST DAY.
I don't expect them to be able to sell those 10 million shipped consoles, but by Jan 2007 the total sold may be near 8 million. Selling another 3 mil between now and then seems entirely possible.
As a side note, I'd expect Nintendo to eclipse that online figure quickly, but they aren't charging for the service. So I suppose 3 million paying Live customers is worth gloating about, but they are expecting to reach 6 million? I guess that figure includes non-paying silver members, right? If they are going to include non-payers, Nintendo is expecting to have 6 million consoles sold by Q1 2007, so that would be 6 million free online players. Of course not everyone will be online, but you get the idea.
And yes, the games figure has to include XBLA games... otherwise we'd have to see about 120+ games come out between now and November.
All in all, this is just a game with the numbers. The 360's troubled launch set it back from where it could be at this point - it could have potentially had a 10 to 15 million console lead by the holidays if the systems were available at launch. I do expect the 360 to take second place this generation (worldwide)... it will lead in the US by a decent margin, though, which I suppose is a major accomplishment for the second offering by MS in the console market.
Squeezem Joe @ Jul 23rd 2006 7:46PM
vidguy, the sales will certainly rise with price drops (like any console will) and Halo 3, but the japanese just dont go crazy for Halo the way the Americans do. FPS are not very popular in Japan, nor is the Halo "theme". The only thing that will seriously increase the Xbox 360 sales in Japan to RotW sales points (other than the Christmas boom) will be the failure of Playstation 3, if it happens.
icemorebutts @ Jul 23rd 2006 7:47PM
I really don't expect the PS3 to sell as good as the 360 here, or in Europe. Japan is the only place the 360 won't sell. As for the Wii to be in third place, I doubt it.
Joel @ Jul 23rd 2006 7:52PM
"the platform grew more than 125 percent"
Great, now it's the size of a Hummer instead of a Honda.
Reaktorleak89 @ Jul 23rd 2006 8:18PM
http://nexgenwars.com/ They've actually SOLD a little over 4 million consoles, which is on par with the 80% sell rate. But considering that it's been almost 9 months since launch, 4 million units is not an impressive number. I mean, Sony intends to sell that many within just a few months. It's kinda cute that they left out sales figures for Japan. ^_~
Ethan @ Jul 23rd 2006 8:31PM
if everyone saying "SHIPPED" is talking to me (which, I dont really know since you didnt even put my name there) Then you must have misread MY post. I said "10 million sold by the PS3 launch like they said they were going to do before" Now they are saying shipped bu the end of the year, instead of sold by the PS3 launch. Oh, and icemorebutts, the Europeans love the Playstation brand more than any other country. I think that speaks for itself though, seeing as there were only 1.3 mill units sold in Europe in its first 8 months.
Bloo @ Jul 23rd 2006 8:42PM
"A consoles launch is supposed to be the time they sell the most consoles,"
So you're saying the PS2 sold 60+ million of its 100 million consoles at launch? LOL. And here I thought it only sold a few million at launch. People sould really STFU unless they know what they're talking about.
marcin @ Jul 23rd 2006 8:55PM
#10.
youre very wrong about Playstation in Europe.
Playstation in Europe is just as it is here in North America. An image which the PS1 and PS2 both created based on price, software, and the fact that their main competition at launch was a Nintendo product.
with that said, Europeans are not buying the 360's because their love of video games is not strong enough to warrant the spending of so much money on a console. also, how many european countries have had xbox 360 for 8 months now? not many. there was a recent launch in eastern europe two months ago.
the world evolves around money, as does the video game industry. price price price.
PS3 will not sell in Europe.
nick @ Jul 23rd 2006 9:20PM
I'm not sure how you figure the bulk of the 160 games will be XBLA. In the first year we're likely to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 XBLA games (if even that). That would lead me to believe the bulk of the game expected are not XBLA games.
Leto @ Jul 23rd 2006 9:42PM
Xbox 360 loses more money for Microsoft despite their promise to investors that the Xbox 360 would make money in 2006:
http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/07/21/microsoft_fiscal_q42006/
That's sounding even worse than the original Xbox: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/2480001.stm
Eh, only 5 million shipped, about 4 million sold? One word, Dissapointing...
marcin @ Jul 23rd 2006 9:45PM
how is that disappointing Leto? and no one knows the sale numbers.
Kevin @ Jul 23rd 2006 9:46PM
Shipped = sold, as stores buy the consoles from Microsoft. When you buy a system from, say, Best Buy that money goes to Best Buy and not Microsoft as Best Buy already paid for them. Shipped means the amount of consoles that retailers are buying off of Microsoft, so to Microsoft it does indeed mean they "sold" those consoles.
Doesn't anyone here know how the retail market works?
georgedakota @ Jul 23rd 2006 9:48PM
Some of you people obviously arent business majors or even using common sense. For god sake people it is summertime and it is a known fact sales are horrible this time of year. Wait till september till december and i guarantee 360 will sell 5 million at least. PS3 is too expensive for most, wont have much games and will be hard to come by as all consoles are. come on people use your brains before speaking, i would expect a little more intelligence from some of you. oh and by the way to say 3.3 million sold in the usa is not that much is obviously not intelligent as well. The 360 was impossible to find for more than half the time since its been released and summer is the slow slow slow time so it just amazes me people arent "impressed" with over 3 million sold. please someone with intelligence post numbers of the ps2 during its first 8 months to prove my point
Ethan @ Jul 23rd 2006 9:51PM
Bloo, I mean within the 6 month launch period, duh.
marcin, #10 didnt say anything about Europe, what are you talking about.
junkie @ Jul 23rd 2006 9:52PM
5 million is a great number, and I've been one of those 5 million since a week before the 360's launch, but at the E3 conference weren't they saying that they were going to have 6 million by now?
JJ @ Jul 23rd 2006 10:33PM
Well yes technically shipped does equate to sold... but then that would mean we would need to boost the number of PS2's and PSP's sold etc etc and couldnt harp ons ony for citing shipped and Nintendo for citing sold anymore now could we?
Its fun to twist info in ways to benefit said company isn't it?
Still shipped is fine, but it isnt in the hands of the end user. Which means their installed user base is smaller than they would lead numbers to believe.
The 160 games intrigues me too.. as i've only ever seen between 30-40 games in whichever store i'm in... that means they're gonna need to ship 100 more games in the next few months. Good luck on that one MS!
and george the reason people are saying its not impressive is that MS was spouting how they would sell 10 mil int he first year. after 8 months only selling HALF that number is hardly impressive by the standards they themselves set forth.
Just like if Sony came out and said they'd sell 15mil the first year and come halfway through they only sold 7... they'd have fallen short of their OWN goals, which isn't impressive by THEIR numbers.
But its certainly not doing BAD.. but those numbers can only be HURT more then helped by competition, right now they're the only fish in the next gen pond, so if they dont stay ahead of their competitors (like if Sony and Nintendo systems manage to pass their shipped/sold numbers in the same amount of time) then MS is in trouble. But then we wont know that for another year now will we?
JJ @ Jul 23rd 2006 10:35PM
also george dont forget, the market has grown by leaps and bounds since 2000 when PS2 came out to be comparing numbers. I mean correct me if i'm wrong, but didn't the original xbox sell more in its first 8 months?
glitched @ Jul 23rd 2006 11:02PM
here ya go guys...
a graph comparing the first 8 months of each consoles launch in the US.
Look what happened to the PS2 sales after the PS2 shortages were over the next spring? they jumped up. now compare that to the 360...
http://videogamecharts.com/Gallery/albums/album01/Launch_Comparison_8.jpg
here are more numbers if you are interested...
http://videogamecharts.com/page3.html
glitched @ Jul 23rd 2006 11:06PM
does those ps2 numbers you requested prove your point george?
JJ @ Jul 23rd 2006 11:47PM
Well... at least its doing better than the gamecube was this far in...if even only by a smidgen.
Man those numbers are kinda dissapointing comparatively.
juanito @ Jul 24th 2006 12:08AM
yeah the number of 5 mill is shipped, so that means the 50 i saw at walmart today are counted in that. alot of stores have alot of 360's now, so the 5 mill is kinda close but they still haven't sold that many.
Andy @ Jul 24th 2006 12:41AM
I love how stupid Sony fanboys are. It actually doesn't say shipped, it says "installed base of 5 million." Installed base means purchased, and set up playing games. Nice try with the wishful thinking.
ill trooper @ Jul 24th 2006 12:44AM
Great link to those charts, Glitched.
Looking at that charts, you might be inclined to think that despite the growth, hyped-out awareness and capabilities of the 'next-gen,' it's over 5 years later and the 360's sales are only barely keeping par with the 2000 numbers. Were we more excited about buying new systems back then?
Only the 360 is out right now, and we can attribute some of this to the 360 launch-shortage, but including that in an assesment still isn't changing anything - it's not a hypothetical concept, the 360 shortage DID happen, and the fact remains, even now that it's more available, the system is only barely touching the sales of the industry five years ago.
Does it matter? Well, these 360 numbers aren't really 'next-gen' when you factor in the the increases in developing games and system cost. It's telling us that the industry probabaly wants/needs to have a larger user base than the last couple of years to profit like it has in the Ps2/Xbox days, and these charts show us that Microsoft, and probably Sony, are being very optimistic with their sales expectations.
juanito @ Jul 24th 2006 12:45AM
actually multiple sites have reported that those numbers are only shipped not how many have been purchased. so your statement is incorrect.
sony shill, lol @ Jul 24th 2006 1:36AM
Hope not too many 360s catch fire by time Halo 3 comes out. That'll probably dampen the sales.
Siraris @ Jul 24th 2006 1:57AM
I don't think these numbers are that impressive. I mean 5 million consoles in 10 months is very little, and I have yet to see any exclusive titles on the system I'd like to play, aside from Lost Planet, which I've heard from the demos aren't that terrific.
I really feel like the 360 doesn't have anything that makes it a killer system. Live is cool, but it's nothing that my PC doesn't already have.
I'm waiting on PS3 and Wii before I make any final decisions, especially since Wii is untested in everyday use and PS3 is still pretty clouded in mystery. It will be a really interesting holiday season!
Erik Novak @ Jul 24th 2006 2:46AM
I just want to say real quick, stop saying, "but I can already do that with my PC." It's getting old, because when I get home from a long day of work staring at a PC, I don't want to have to game in front of a PC as well. Given the option, I'd play something on a console rather than a PC any day.
JJ @ Jul 24th 2006 3:16AM
Well Erik that same phrase can work both ways ya know.
I enjoy gaming on my TV and on my 360/ps2/GC,etc, but i also rather enjoy gaming on my PC.. i mean thats what i built it for, PC gaming and online things. In fact i find myself alternating between FEAR and PREY recently... I'll play both from my office chair. I'll do homework and play fear, at the same time i'm playing Suikoden V and Prey on my TV... i guess it helps having them all in one room =)
But it also really depends on the game to be played. I find i can actually game longer in my PC chair (as its the most comfy chair in my apartment, giving i spend a LOT of time on the PC doing work and writing).
But then that's just me. I like having my cake and eating it too =)
Dirk Dorkelson @ Jul 24th 2006 4:47AM
@ Siraris
" I mean 5 million consoles in 10 months is very little..."
What about five million consoles in seven months? Because that's what we're talking about. The Xbox 360 came out Nov. 22... These sales figures are through June 30. So we're talking about seven months and about nine days. That's nowhere near 10 months, dude. Project that sales pace over five years, and it doesn't look so bad. Certainly better than Xbox and GameCube did.
insane_cobra @ Jul 24th 2006 4:49AM
It would be interesting to see the comparison between 360 and other systems that launched long before their competitors. But lacking that, some of you might also be interested in this analysis:
http://www.gametunnel.com/articles.php?id=263
It's only natural that everybody mentions the number of units shipped and not sold to end users. Those are the only exact figures you could have, everything else can only be estimated.
Speaking of 160 games, there are 287 Xbox 360 titles on GameSpot's list, it's not inconceivable that 160 of them would be out by the end of the holiday season.
cap-n-crunch @ Jul 24th 2006 8:08AM
I saw gigantor in huntington wva last year. Fear Factory is the greatest. Their lead singer, Burton Bell, is a Halo fan.
try playing fear factory's album digimortal while playing geomatry wars it total syncs up.
JDub @ Jul 24th 2006 10:08AM
I like how we as a generation of gamers (who were kids, let's not forget) keep dissing Nintendo when Nintendo was there for us as children. Not Microsoft not Sony, Sega was there to. My first gameboy was a Nintendo game & watch and my first system was the NES with Gyro the robot and Duck hunt and every game and/or system I've played since takes me back to those days. The mini donkey kong arcade game, popeye. I could go on for days and the company would be Nintendo. Did none of us who loved games have children, I did and mine play Nintendo. There are more children games available and I am 100% positive that my kids can kick the crap out of it, drop it and not be killed by it (original xbox) and it will still work. Since when do we praise a product that's shotty before a very great product. I've had most games from the Phillips CD-I to the Commodore 64. I have 2 360's jap and american and I love the way games are going. But we must give respect to Nintendo who stayed the course when the world was saying it would never catch on, they didn't stop at 8-bit or 16-bit they kept it moving. What do you think bill Gates played as a kid . . . bet it was a Nintendo. So before we are so quick to say it's for kids lets try to remember where and when we found our love for games and try not to ruin our childrens experiences.
hey alex @ Jul 24th 2006 10:16AM
The total number of consoles sold is always 'estimated' based on sales data for a limited percentage of the overall market (thus we have numbers like xxx,000). The actual number, at least in America, is never released. You have to rely the company to release such information, which they almost never do, unless it's rounded shipping information.
But even then, it's not like Microsoft doesn't receive their cut until the console is sold. They make the sale right away when it goes to the distributor (hence consoles shipped). But it's not about the console. It's about the software. Microsoft is subsidizing the console for a couple of years, in an effort to recoup profit on software.
What these numbers tell us. More than half of everyone with the new console is on Live. This is a huge improvement over their last effort. And pretty good, considering NOT everyone has broadband. There's a better attach rate for both software and accessories. And the original Xbox had a pretty good attach rate.
If they manage to ship 10 million consoles in the first year, that's much greater and quicker than Xbox did in it's first year.
Keep in mind, to ship X amount of consoles, you have to be selling a certain percentage of consoles. It's not like Microsoft is going to be able to ship 10 million consoles, unless their selling a good percentage of those consoles. Otherwise retailers are going to tell them, we don't want anymore, don't ship us any.
Natiahs @ Jul 24th 2006 10:46AM
3.3m sold in the US? Not according to NPD:
http://videogamecharts.com/page3.html
The total as of the end of June is 2,002,724 in the US with fewer than 3m sold worldwide. I expect M$ is releasing current shipping totals to make their numbers look better than they are.
N
lothar @ Jul 24th 2006 11:02AM
A couple factors that I see with 360 sales:
I cant see the Summer being a big time for people to go out and purchase consoles. Even us gamers like to go out in that sun from time to time.
HD sets, The majority of tvs out there are not HD and I think that is causing many to hold off on getting a HD gaming console.
The wait and see game, a number of non-fanboys are waiting to see what the next gen consoles will all look like. Wii will do better because there are many people that will opt for the lower price point and the fact that they dont "need" a HD set to get the full potential out of the system.
Slestak @ Jul 24th 2006 11:29AM
MS didn't say they were gonna sell 10 million before the PS3's launch. The metric has always been "The first console to ten million comes out on top." Currently the 360 has a 5 million head start on Sony.
Can Sony catch up and pass them? I think they'll come close but they won't do it. With a high price point and a crummy-looking launch title line-up ("Riiiiiiiiiiiiidge Racer!") they certainly have their work cut out for them.
I don't think Sony is toast, but this generation is going to be a real battle for them. There are way too many vague promises on what the PS3 is going to offer. By this time last year, we saw the 360's guide interface, we basically knew how the Marketplace would work . . . has Sony pulled back the curtain on this stuff yet?
saidnamyzO @ Jul 24th 2006 12:33PM
glitched:
that chart is wrong. the 360 has sold over 4 million consoles according to most sources, and 5 million consoles according to microsoft. either way if you had the correct numbers on your chart, you would see that it has presently sold better than the ps2 did in its first 8 months.
honestly it doesnt matter. I expect the ps3 to sell as many consoles as sony can pump out, and thus I expect ps3 sales to be sitting around 4million at this time next year. hell if cell yields can crawl out of the gutter they may even sell more.
Bloo @ Jul 24th 2006 12:49PM
"Bloo, I mean within the 6 month launch period, duh."
Duh to you. My comment remains unchanged if by launch you meant 1 day, 6 months, or even the 1st year. The bulk os PS2s were sold at $150 which was a couple years after launch. Sorry.
blah @ Jul 24th 2006 2:38PM
I'm personally rooting for the x360, I like the system and how they are trying to integrate it with the home network etc.
My issue is the type of games that I like to play aren't there for me, why do they all have to be twitch? I'm looking for more strat, adventure, roleplaying stuff befeore I purchase my 360.
Sony playstation was a good system, but it amazes me the extent to which all their fanboys will go to defend them. They're plan so far for the ps3 has really been crappy and nearly as good as x360 overall. The ps2 and ps were also faulty machines.
Those that are crying about the shipped, as it has been said, that is all a company can go by, how many units it "shipped" to the distributors, which is a sale to them, and if they aren't selling they won't be getting more orders to "ship" them. Get off it already.
Loublack @ Jul 24th 2006 3:42PM
They still need games tho. they not going to hit those numbers with just fps. Its a great system but they need to get more exclusives b4 sony starts hitting its stride by x-mas 2007 and spring 2008
Loublack @ Jul 24th 2006 3:46PM
By the way i like both systems i like sony a lil more but boy are the underestimating microsoft and nintendo i mean i love the trash talk but damn they make it seem like those 2 dont exist.
VampireHunter Z @ Jul 24th 2006 3:57PM
@38. NPD doesn't include sales from big merchants like Walmart and several other small stores.
Robotic House Plant @ Jul 24th 2006 5:01PM
NPD does not have numbers for total sales. Instead they look at a certain percentage of the market (typically something like 20-30%) and they extrapolate and use formulas to make an educated guess on what the overall numbers may be. I forget the margin of error, but it's usually acceptable to get an idea of market trends. It's not meant to be used as actual concrete data. But it gives you an indication of how well it's doing again like products.
This is why shipping information can be useful. You at least get an idea of how many items are out there. Now apply some logic. If a item does not sell well, the shipping number will not increase or at least increase greatly. Retailers are not going to ask for more product, if they can't sell what they have. So, if you have access to shipping data, watch the numbers over time, and you'll get a general idea how well it may or may not be doing. If the product doesn't sell, shipping and production on the product should slow or stop.
Evan @ Jul 24th 2006 6:40PM
The PS2 is currently out-selling the 360 monthly, and the PSP is barely keeping up with the old GBA! That shows you the power of parents and casual gamers. How fast the next-generation systems can build their game libraries and drop to "parent-friendly" pricing will be more important than their launch sales.
glitched @ Jul 24th 2006 8:04PM
saidnamyzO:
that chart is NOT wrong. The chart is based off of numbers from NPD in the US only. The numbers you mentioned are for world wide!
Why do people always insist that "such and such" numbers are wrong? or "those are shipped not sold" or "NPD doesnt get info from walmart, etc" Its the same comments over and over again! GET OVER IT GUYS! YOUR JUST TRYING TO JUSTIFY THAT THE NUMBERS ARENT WHAT YOU WANT!
There are NPD numbers - who collect & estimates sales data(yes even the numbers from retailers they dont get actual #'s from)
Then there are shipped numbers from the manufacturers.
Take them for what they are, and neither set of numbers are wrong!