Analyst 84 wags finger at analyst 83, says PS3 will win
In the on again, off again Wii vs. PS3 analyst battle, some new no-name makes his prediction claiming that Sony will have sold 70 million PS3's while Nintendo will only sell 40 million Wii's by 2011. Said he: "Hardcore gamers will probably prefer the raw power of PS3. And for all the positive vibes right now, the Wii isn't expected to outsell the PS3." Who knew?In response, in-house Joystiq analyst Chris Grant said if Wii doesn't outsell the PS3, blogger James Ransom-Wiley will punch him in the stomach exposing our inability to act while throwing fake punches in a lame effort to drum up publicity.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
C. Grant @ Jul 27th 2006 3:49PM
Of course I didn't say this. I can't take a punch. James' fist would bore a hole through my abdomen.
Xenikos @ Jul 27th 2006 4:40PM
Vapid analysts aside, I would say this fellow (#83) has about a 70% chance of being right.
Absent graphical/storage power, HD support, and so forth - the Wii just isn't positioned to age well. It will outsell the PS3 at first like nothing else - but its apex will definately be during the times when Twilight Princess/new Metroid/SMG/Smash Bros. is released early on.
Come 2008/2009, most of the people who blanched at the 360/PS3 price tags (which, plus requisite peripherals and online fees, have only a nominal difference) will see a reduced price PS3 with established games that looks purdy on their new big TV. That spells way more units sold for the PS3 by 2011.
Pixelantes Anonymous @ Jul 27th 2006 4:41PM
Let me guess. It was Michael Pachter?
Kamalot @ Jul 27th 2006 4:42PM
Here is why the PS# will win!
http://kamalot.blogspot.com/2006/07/ps3-just-tip-of-iceberg.html
Zo K. @ Jul 27th 2006 4:44PM
You know, that's something I had not even thought of.
What if the Wii is a wonderful new machine, extremely popular, everyone buys one at the outset... and later, it turns out to be the fad of video games? Which is ironic, as video games themselves used to be refered to in such a fasion.
Anyway, I don't know. If they can have excellent games around launch, why can't they keep that momentum going throughout the console's life? The seventh generation in gaming is certainly shaping up to be interesting and unpredictable.
Kamalot @ Jul 27th 2006 4:44PM
Here is a link to the full-sized image instead.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/68/411/1600/sony_iceberg.jpg
It truth, PS3 is just the tip of the iceberg! ;-)
32_Footsteps @ Jul 27th 2006 4:48PM
Chris, is this a bad time to mention that Ross said I could punch you in the gut any time I'd like?
You know, this reminds me of a Sunday comic from Bloom County (this was the early to mid-80's, for the really young 'uns here). Binkley was in bed, and as usual having a nightmare brought to him. His nightmare this night? A pair of economists, who immediately started talking about the economy. Of course, since they were two economists, they couldn't agree on anything, and managed to do so in as many words as possible.
At this point, I'm officially ignoring any and all analysts (who seem to all be economists) until there is more concrete information upon which to make the judgment on which system(s) will thrive in the coming generation.
Jetlag @ Jul 27th 2006 4:50PM
I think the analyst has a 50-50 chance. What a lot of people don't realize is that a sizable chunk of the PS1 & 2's audience were casual gamers. They don't really care about what system they own, as long as it has good games for them to play. I don't think that a casual gamer would be willing to fork 600 smackers for a PS3. Likewise, I don't expect many casual gamers to pick up a Wii due to Nintendo's 'kiddy' image. The PS3 might have the horsepower going for it, but I can't see anyone thinking it worth $600.
Jeff @ Jul 27th 2006 4:52PM
I think I'm going to have to start pronouncing "analyst" with a long "a".
crono141 @ Jul 27th 2006 4:55PM
If Wii software support peters out after the first year, AND ps3 actually gets a price drop (contrary to kutaragi's wishes), then yes, PS3 could outdo the Wii in its total life.
But if developers actually grow an imagination, realize the HUGE potentials offered by Wii (especially if any of those recent rumors are true), this console will own all others, and will change the face of gaming for all time.
I was just thinking earlier today: What if Nintendo developed arcade machines based on Wii, only much beefier (HD graphics and such). That there would be some badass arcade machines.
Hiro Protagonist @ Jul 27th 2006 4:57PM
@ #9, Jeff.
You mean like 'Riiiiiidge Raaacer!'?
I'm pretty sure PS3 will outsell the Wii in the long run, the casual gamers might not spend $600 on the PS3 (as mentioned above) but they most likely will get one when the price drops.
It's very hard to tell exactly what will happen though.
daver @ Jul 27th 2006 5:01PM
People People People
As I listen to Muse I think perhaps Nintendo WIll own the next generation and the reason is simple - the success of the DS can be contributed to the fact that the classic library has been revisited alongside the intuitive touch generations. Last night I had my brother in law playing brain training, a guy that would never play a game in his life ! Its a simple fact = graphics can really only go so far and the playablilty and intiutiveness of the software in question comes into play. Its a crying shame that it seems to this humble commentator that Nintendo is the only software company that understands this vision. Math problems against a clock the swaggering balacning act of Smooth Moves. People use your head, no matter which way you loooooook at it Nintendo has morphed into something that should be fucking incredible.
DAve J.
MosquitoControl @ Jul 27th 2006 5:02PM
I'd expect PS to win.
I'd say not by as much, though. I'd expect 50 million from them and 30-40 for the other two.
daver @ Jul 27th 2006 5:04PM
My wife ( yes i is 30 ) plays brain training and new mario every single day and she burst into giggles when playing brain training and duyring the little head count test the little guys started going out through the chimney ! Smiles and laughter = Nintendo.
daver @ Jul 27th 2006 5:07PM
GENIUS = NINTENDO
A far cry from the glum-whore-pimp games on PS or the generic pieces of rubbish on 360. Smarten up the lot of you and you will see videogames become huge.
daver @ Jul 27th 2006 5:09PM
Hiro being Jay whats it ? Xbox slut ?
jabbertrack @ Jul 27th 2006 5:12PM
Hmm... claim to be an analyst and get your own Joystiq article
good idea... now to have some fake business cards made up (or do I even need those)
glitched @ Jul 27th 2006 5:13PM
Yeah, casual gamers wont be spending $600 on a PS3...
they'll spend $500
PS3 needs good press @ Jul 27th 2006 5:14PM
The interesting thing that both analysts are pointing out ... Wii will be a force to be reckoned with. This one says the Wii will only sell 40 million. Well, guess what, that's twice the installed fanbase of the Gamecube. That means success for Nintendo and profits through the roof. If the PS3 can pull out 70 million, I'll be impressed. Just know that at its current price point, it won't get there. But once studios start using a better compression than MPEG-2 for Blu-ray releases and developers can harness more than 50% of the PS3's power (and lower the price point), watch out Microsoft.
HotShotX @ Jul 27th 2006 5:18PM
Analyst HSX hereby decrees the the following:
*Halo 3 will come out in 2007.
*Doom 4 will feature virtual reality and graphics, but little gameplay.
*Square Enix will either end the series before Final Fantasy XXX, or skip it entirely.
*Jack Thompson will write a book about his war on videogames, then promptly declare it unappropriate for kids, and have it banned from bookstores nationwide.
*The next GTA game will feature rednecks and how to efficiently pimp out your sister to your cousin.
*The apocalypse will arrive, and after the 4 Horsemen have had their way with us, Jesus (or Duke Nukem, I can't remember which), will appear and save the Earth.
~HotShotX
daver @ Jul 27th 2006 5:18PM
you fuckhead glitched =
casual gamers will spend 200 bucks with a 30 dollar off grocery voucher on a dull saturday afternoon when the glimmering screeen with brain training or smoooth moves appeals to their sense of fun.
smarten up you twerp. 500 dollars is not casual spending. idiot. think of the little africans you prick. langer.
stars please.
Ubersnuber @ Jul 27th 2006 5:24PM
This is the first ps i have to save up for.
but i cant help it, i got to have the newest blingbling:P
and i think others do too, gamers or none gamers. they know about the ps3 nd what it costs.
everyone knows about the playstation, hell, some ppl actually calls a console for a playstation even if its another brand!
my point in all this mess is:
ppl remember the playstation for making gaming in livingrooms "legal". They dont like the i360 looks, nd they wont feel confortable with waiwing the wii controller in the living room.
both u nd i know, ppl pays the price if its the right brand;)
nd believe it or not, this is not ment as a flamer to ms nd ninty boys. nd ofc, its JUST an opinion
Aaron @ Jul 27th 2006 5:25PM
Are these analysts also therapists?
If they were, they'd be professionals twice over: Analrapists.
paintist @ Jul 27th 2006 5:29PM
If the rumors that the PS3 will support both homebrew apps and linux, how possible would it be to port the Wii controller to the PS3?
jopojelly @ Jul 27th 2006 5:32PM
hah "4. Here is why the PS# will win!
http://kamalot.blogspot.com/2006/07/ps3-just-tip-of-iceberg.html"
why it will win?!?!? That pic shows Sony as the Titanic, and all of their products as an Iceberg. And, if you didn't know, the titanic was SUNK by an iceberg, therefore implying that the PS3 will be the death of SONY! How is that proof that sony will win?
Dux @ Jul 27th 2006 5:33PM
Those predictions seem reasonable In a sense. 40 million for the Wii is not bad. Thats almost twice what the Gamecube sold, by the same time. and Nintendo said that if they dident sell more than the gamecube they would see the Wii as a failure. So 40 million is a success and not a bad number. 70 million for the PS3 seems fair too, since the PS3 will be so expensive you might expect it not to sell as much as the PS2 at 100 million, but still sell a good amount with the strength of the brand name. Now let me make a prediction on the 360. They are saying 10 million sold in a yr.Hmm Im going to presume that the 360 will be on a 6 yrs life cycle. I will say 10-12 million sold each yr for 3 yrs. Thats about 30-36 million. Then the number I will say will drop down to about 6-8 million the next 2 yrs. 42 million. And then 5 million on its last yr. so thats 48 million too 52 million, and thats not too mention all the big sellers. Like Halo 3 and Gears of War, Gears of War 2, and Mass Effect, and games that havent even been anounced yet wich will easliy move 5 million each so Im guestimating about 75 million 360's sold :) 5 million more than PS3. of course Im just having a bit of fun just guessing and all. its just my opinion ^_^( presuming the anaylist put in all the big sellers in their predictions up there^)
daver @ Jul 27th 2006 5:33PM
We jerk off, hail caps and shake hands with one hands.
FFS SMarten up.
One hand makes perfect sense eedjit.
glitched @ Jul 27th 2006 5:36PM
whoa! over react much there daver?
what did I ever do to you?
Sheesh, just pointing out that IF casual gamers buy a playstation, they will be buying the cheaper one...
calm down child.
Negative stars indeed!
BMWM3P @ Jul 27th 2006 5:44PM
How about I get to punch you in the stomach?, Chris. I'll make sure there won't be anything fake about it. PS3 easy win, Wii will be strong at first all the wiitards are going to flock to it, the PS3 will be consistantly strong selling out at launch and kicking everyones ass throughout it lifecycle. We haven't even begun to see what the PS3 can do once it get's rolling it won't be stopped.
Tinn @ Jul 27th 2006 5:48PM
#2. Good point, PS3 will outsell others by 2011, that's about the end of this coming generation.
Anta @ Jul 27th 2006 5:50PM
I'm a casual gamer that doesn't troll around the internet like you guys and I'm buying the PS3. its just so much cooler.
AC @ Jul 27th 2006 5:54PM
I absolutely love your comment #22
'22. If the rumors that the PS3 will support both homebrew apps and linux, how possible would it be to port the Wii controller to the PS3?'
It could very well happen, as the PS3 is no longer a gaming machine, but a lower end PC!! Whereas Nintendo is delving more into an 'Interactive Entertainment' system. Some homebrew guy will eventually figure out how to get the PS3 to run with the Wiimote with its versatility (it isn't only a games machine). It'll be just like the PSP! That being said, I think this whole analyst prediction crap is bullshit. Who really can predict, when not all is known about either system yet (fact), and no one really knows the software lineup for each after the first 6 months (especially the PS3 games). I say these guys are bullshit! I can't believe these people get paid. Just wait and find out!!!
darryl @ Jul 27th 2006 5:55PM
"...but I can't see anyone thinking it worth $600."
That's what I thought about a $400 iPod... Hmmm.
Hiro Protagonist @ Jul 27th 2006 6:00PM
Whoa, my nick + Xbox slut do not go together daver.
I am a Sega fanboy and damn proud.
Of course, after the Dreamcast died, all my money went to Nintendo.
I have to agree with HotShotX, his predictions are viable.
Props to Aaron. Give both these men a star.
Oh and paintist, it will be very hard to make the wiimote work for the PS3, but it will be done. Being a Linux user myself, I can say, without a doubt, a good Linuxer can do anything.
Cheers.
Sea @ Jul 27th 2006 6:24PM
I was going to buy a Neo Geo when the price dropped but never got around to it. History will repeat itself. Having the most power does not equal a winner (ie PS2 was the weakest of the last generation by far).
And the rationale here that people will pick it up later when the price drops is a flawed argument as developer support is proportionate to number of units sold. If the PS3 does not sell well early in its lifecycle it will most certainly fail. Price drops did nothing to move Gamecube and Xbox units later in their respective lifecycles. PS2 sales were good from the start and continued that way. Thus PS3 MUST SELL WELL EARLY or developers will drop support like a bad habit.
Gonna be an interesting console battle this time around.
r-deezy @ Jul 27th 2006 6:32PM
Ahhh, it all makes sense now... I always wondered why 32_Footsteps gets no less the 12 Stars on any given post. He's an employee! Maybe either a bit higher on the food chain or has direct influence on the star system. :)
epobirs @ Jul 27th 2006 6:33PM
Take the prophecies of the analyst who is best in alignment with your hopes and dreams as the very word of God unto his gaming people.
All others may be dismissed as infidels and stonefaced jerks who'll be first up against the wall when the revolution comes
HotShotX @ Jul 27th 2006 6:46PM
"All others may be dismissed as infidels and stonefaced jerks who'll be first up against the wall when the revolution comes"
I'm sorry, I simply cannot be afraid of something known as a "Wii".
~HotShotX
brit @ Jul 27th 2006 7:20PM
As much as I'd love Ninty to win a round of these so-called 'wars', weren't initial reactions to playing (the admittedly early build of) Red Steel kinda so-so?
Considering Wii is supposedly launching at the start of October, we've actually seen very little proof (if any) that this controller is going to be as intuitive as they claim.
i.e. Wii is still a crapshoot so analysts have very little to go on until we know how the thing really does play.
Lee @ Jul 27th 2006 7:20PM
Sigh, this is just one of those posts where it's not even worth trying to make a point. There's shit flying from all sides here, skimming through there were a few good points made, but you need to wade through the blind bias of the rest of the posts.
Namely daver, why hasn't he got a negative star yet?
epobirs @ Jul 27th 2006 7:34PM
#34
Wrong revolution. It's a literary reference. You know, those paper things with the words?
Staticneuron @ Jul 27th 2006 8:15PM
I know alot of casual gamers, talk to them in video game stores, at arcades, in the line at the grocery, i… you get the point right?; after being told the price of the PS3 peoples eyes gloss over but most that I have talked to still say they want to get one. A smaller crowd actually asked why… was satisfied with the answer and continued to speculate about the games. On the internet I see really angry statements and proclomations that joe schmo wont buy the PS3 for the price but in the real world I get different answers. In the real world I see people that purchase 250k cars and spinners that go for 4K each. I have seen purses and dresses that cost between 800 and 1200 hanging off of females that aren’t allowed to vote yet. I see the guys that purchase $200 shades and go to resturants that charge you $120 dollars for “one” shrimp on a slice of lettuce.
I see this stuff every day and yet I come on the internet and see how cost conscientious joe shmoe or the average gamer will be and I laugh. The truth is that alot of people are going to be irked at this pricing but if given enough reason they will either spend the money or Save to get one. Its funny I don’t see a word about “saving” money when the majority of systems I bought in my life I saved to get. It is all about value. For some people all it takes is the sony brand. For people like me… I buy into potential. Then there are those who need concrete proof. And then there are those that either don’t care and/or downright hate. Maybe the PS3 will flop… no biggie to me as long as I can get some enjoyment out of the system, but there is a very good chance that it could become the beast that sony is hoping it to become.
People also seem to forget that simple gameplay has been Nintendo's motto for the 64 and the cube. People point to the DS as if this is the first time nintendo has thought of this. The truth is ninty handhelds have "always" sold well and are not a clear cut reflection of what is going to happen to the Wii.
Yamen @ Jul 27th 2006 8:26PM
Regardless of the PS3 vs Wii vs X-Box 360 "race", if Nintendo managed to sell 40+ million consoles, that would be an absolute success for them. I'm quite optimistic that such a thing is within thier grasp.
The Gamecube sold just under 20 million in it's lifespan. Even the XBox was at just over 20 million. 40 million would be a huge increase in market presence, and of course, profit.
Brett @ Jul 27th 2006 11:48PM
Did anyone think about buying both? Or am I the only one who's actually going to do that?
Wait, once I buy one does it come with a contract that says I'm not allowed to buy the other? Did I miss that?
EdensDevil @ Jul 28th 2006 1:37AM
I get tired of people thinking that this generation will last past 2010! Thats just rediculous, the Microsoft will have something new out by 2010 at the latest. Especially if the PS3 is so successful but I doubt it. People should relize that in Japan they don't buy the 360 because its an American corperation. I been there and that's what they tell me. So I buy Americorp because at least some of the money goes too charities. Don't get me wrong Sony donates to charities but not even 5% of what Microsoft does. If you have enough intellegence you can find out the statistics for what is donated because its very public.
phipscube @ Jul 28th 2006 2:43AM
The Wii is going to be competing with the PS2 for the next one/two years.. The casual gamer isn't just gonna suddenly say "OH I want a PS3 now its out". The PS2 is still going to be the casual gamer machine from Sony. They know the PS2 is still selling well and with titles like Buzz and Singstar it will continue to very well to casual types. Further price cuts for PS2 will keep it rolling until they can eventually make PS3 more affordable.
Do you really think Inital PS3 buyers will be casual gamers? I don't think so. It was the same with PS1 and 2. When the PS2 came out people still bought PS1 for a long time.
The thing Sony do well is NOT kill off an older product just because a new one is out. They can be very transitional in their approach because their last gen machine is doing so well STILL, unlike Microsoft and Nintendo. They are coming into this battle without the older machine to back them up because quite frankly the older machines are DEAD.
Even now PS2 is killing Xbox360. Nintendos ace, and the thing thats keeping them afloat as usual, is the (Handheld market) DS, but without that they'd be in deep trouble relying on the Cube.
Wii will sell very well, but there is no way it will take sales from PS3 buyers. Its a totally different person. More likely Wii will take from PS2 IF its all it makes out to be and casual gamers bite.
OH! And before you say it, you Nintendoh phanboiz don't count against PS3, your never gonna buy a PS3 anyway so don't go screaming "Yeah, but i'm buying a Wii instead of a PS3, so thats one sale taken from Sony" Because.. you know it isn't.
Fuzzy @ Jul 28th 2006 3:13AM
I read somewhere (Can't remember where) that in the current/last generation (PS2,GC,Xbox) a lot of journalists and analysts sort of knew that PS2 would "win" the war, but when they wrote articles they gave the impression that it would be a much closer race than it actualy was. They wanted to give the underdogs a chance. A lot of this "Sony-bashing" makes me wonder if they're doing the same thing now.
But I don't want Sony to win again. I would not call myself a Nintendo or Xbox fanboy. I just don't like Sony's arrogance.
Nintendo used to be arrogant. When they had released 2 very successfull consoles in a row (NES & SNES) and was so dominant that some people called any console a Nintendo.
Gazbin @ Jul 28th 2006 7:50AM
Nintendo has positioned themselves well. They have totally disengaged themselves from the "CPU/Graphics War" and for good reason. Not all gamers are in need of more photo-realism. I suspect quite a few are looking for something more "fun" and in serving the market as the 2nd console, the Wii should build a large base, and have a long life with a low cost development platform and a consumer market prepared for unique ideas. I don't see a time limit for this.
Flip side I do see a time limit for the PS3 vs XBOX 360 & PC War. The reasons being that the very nature of CPU & Graphics power double regularly and the consumer looking for such systems are by nature tech savvy, and fickle.
Sony is pitching the PS3 as their 10-year platform. Today, mid-range PC's can match PS3 (before it's even released) within 18 months low spec PC's will eclipse PS3 performance - how will it look 5 or 6 years from now? Do we not think that MS will press DirectX & Vista to fragment the market?
The big question I have is: will Microsoft accelerate the life cycle of the “CPU Graphics” based consoles and again push Sony into a next Gen arms race 5 years before Sony is financially ready, and technologically prepared? How can Sony respond? How can they afford to respond? The payback for Microsoft is pretty easy to see. Do they have the means? Silly question...
Now back to Nintendo, in such a scenario, no direct response is needed, however, should they feet a refresh was in order then the cost & technology to do so would be of no burden.
Magus @ Jul 28th 2006 12:23PM
I think its an intersting comment. I dont hold much in the lines of believeing analyst generaly.
But this seems like a pretty straighforward assumption anyway. The ps3 is intended for a long lifespan in tearms of the support(the durability remains to be seen). In some sense i think sony picked that up from the ps2.
I'm still a firm believer in that the ps2 at full scale can still compete with any next gen consoles. Graphics may come into question at this point but solid support and gameplay are another matter.
If it works out like they plan for it. Then i see o reason the numbers wont be even higher than whats sugested here. As the focus of the ps3 will change from top of the line to more causual the price will change to match. By that point people will buy it because of the extensive pre-existing library and so on(assuming the plan will work).
Part of the reason I dont see much of a casual gamer to rush out and buy anything early on is the extensive library support. Your casual gamer would still be happy with the cube and ps2 possibly the original xbox.
I still tink microsoft screwed up by flat out killing the original xbox for that same reason.
Just take a look at the #s GBA and PS2s are still selling and how its not hurting the DS sales.
sockpuppettherapy @ Jul 28th 2006 7:54PM
The DS isn't exactly sporting the greatest graphics known to man either, but it's games, both traditional and non-traditional, have ended being able to more than compete against the PSP and even current gen systems.
The Wii probably isn't going to have the lifespan of a PS3 or a 360. Four years, maybe five years? It probably will depend on the advancement in technology by that time, the cost to be able to produce upper echelon graphics, the proliferation of HDTVs and HD-DVD/BluRay formats, and the success of the system itself and its games.
What's clear is that it seems that consumers are tired of the current generation of games. PS2 games are still the most popular on a per monthly basis, and Microsoft hasn't been able to really release any real reason to go out and purchase a $400 system. I don't really suspect that Sony's going to be able to break this mentality either, and it might even be tougher for them to have the large library of games that they normally had with the PS2.
That's why the Wii might actually succeed. The graphical enhancement you see in the 360's games aren't so much better that people are jumping at the chance to get the system, especially for the price. With the Wii, you definitely get a new product, one unlike any other before it and without so much the sacrifice of graphical output to the eyes of the masses.