Business Week all jazzed up for Wii launch
by Joystiq Staff 
{ Jul 28th 2006 at 3:25PM }
Over at Business Week Online, there's a fairly good breakdown of the impending launch showdown between Nintendo's Wii and Sony's PlayStation 3. Based purely on stats and current trends, Business Week predicts the Wii may possibly outshine the PS3 at launch in ways that maybe weren't foreseen when both consoles were originally announced. As they say, "With sales and profits rising and its share price at a four-and-a-half-year high, few would disagree that these are heady days for Nintendo."
To back up this rainbow road set up for Nintendo, BW points to the success of the DS vs. the PSP and also the development community's response to both companies. Some of those key factors noted in the article include:
- Key to the DS's popularity has been Nintendo's knack of persuading people who wouldn't normally look at games to splurge on a DS.
- Analysts add that the DS is also more popular with game designers. That's because the DS, with its dual screens, touch-screen technology, and voice recognition, offers something different from the PSP, which in many respects is a portable version of the PS2 with games to match.
- And as with the DS, the Wii seems to appeal to gamemakers. In a recent survey, Famitsu, a Japanese game-industry publisher, asked software creators which platforms they would most like to create games for in the future. More respondents plumped for the Wii than any other platform. DS ranked second.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
MosquitoControl @ Jul 28th 2006 3:36PM
Will the PS3 launch be more successful?
Depends on production.
Both systems will sell every unit hitting store shelves in 2006, most will probably be sold within minutes or hours. So whoever gets the most to the shelves will win.
Nintendo could take an edge with software. Depends on the costs. If Nintendo games are really $39.99 and PS3 games are $59.99 the Nintendo may sell a bit more software. Really depends on what's out there. The PS3 launch lineup looks terrible. I don't remember the Wii lineup but it's probably terrible. Launch lineups are pretty much always terrible, save the SNES (a top-3 game in the box!) and the original NES (Duck Hunt, Excitebike, Ice Climber, Super Mario Brothers, Kung Fu, Clu Clu Land, Wild Gunman). Actually, looking, the PS had a nice launch, too.
N-ZERO @ Jul 28th 2006 3:39PM
I say they are right the Wii has alot of popularity and is gaining alot of support. More and more devs are announcing that they support the wii and its launch lineup doesn't look to shabby right now. with Zelda,Metriod,Supermonkey ball,red steel,madden at launch it looks likea good show. also with better games coming out later after launch are sonic, call of duty, marvel ultimate alliance, dragonball techiachi 2,Project hammer,tony hawk and other games i say it will have a very very good launch. also next year their is still to come with more titles with those titles coming out this fall i say nintendo will meet its 6 miilion sold mark for wii by March.
Loque @ Jul 28th 2006 3:40PM
Nintendo will make more of a profit, but it may be neck and neck.
I root for nintendo, I'll teach sony a thing or two about "fine dining"...
Erik Novak @ Jul 28th 2006 3:44PM
What's interesting is that either DS or Wii Fanboy had an article about a survey sent out to game developers, that a vast majority of american developers wanted to develop for the 360 most, Wii second, and PS3 third. I'm guessing that was an American survey. Can someone here dig that article up for me?
Justin @ Jul 28th 2006 3:45PM
Indeed, the PS3 will need reconstructive anal surgery after the Wii is done with it. OH MY GOODNESS!
BlackHeart @ Jul 28th 2006 3:46PM
If wii is gaining alot of support, then why SEGA complains about lack of support for the wii?
billychaos @ Jul 28th 2006 3:49PM
I'm glad to see that professional business companies such as Business Week are looking at this years console battle.
Fortyseven @ Jul 28th 2006 3:50PM
I believe the Wii has Zelda, Red Steel, and Wii Sports on launch, at the very least, off the top of my head. Feel free to refine this list. :P
darryl @ Jul 28th 2006 3:51PM
More Sony FUD...
John @ Jul 28th 2006 3:51PM
This is excellent, I love to see Nintendo doing well, I don't know why, its just great.
If Wii comes out with a bang this holiday season, then I don't see PS3 ever outselling the Wii, if all goes as planned, Nintendo should be able to build upon the momentum of the launch by supporting the release of many new games, especially in the likes of Brawl, which will be an enormous gain for the Wii.
blakepro @ Jul 28th 2006 3:52PM
Lets not forget the virtual console on the Wii either. It has the potential to put the launch games into the hundreds if Nintendo chooses... and virtual console games dont have any of the limitations of manufacturing, shipping, and shelf space etc...
All this competition is great for the consumer! I'm the most excited about the Wii though. Its so unique...
NEEKS @ Jul 28th 2006 3:53PM
BlackHeart: They arent complaining about the developers not likeing it. They're complaining about Publishers not supporting it.
Eggman @ Jul 28th 2006 3:59PM
I'd bet the farm on the wii right now. I dont mean to bash the ps3 but realistically, there are way too many things going against it. It's too expensive, it caters to an audience which doesn't represent a good majority of the public but most importantly, it has no killer apps for launch (or even close). The wii being the exact opposite of that.
I have no doubts both systems will be sold out b4 their on shelves but for two totally different reasons. PS3 customers will be buying it for the new tech and the prospect of good games 'to come'. Wii customers will be buying it to try out the new gameplay methods and for the killer launch titles coming out with it. So it remains to be seen which does better in the long run, however as far as the launch window (at and near launch time) is concerned, the wii has way too many 'must have' games to pass up IMO.
J.Goodwin @ Jul 28th 2006 4:00PM
It's taken as common knowledge that the PS3 WILL SELL OUT this holiday season.
I have my doubts now. Even at the lower levels of expected production, I could see there being PS3s on store shelves the night before christmas.
I'd like to know how Nintendo's manufacturing is going. Even though their console is less technically sophisticated, they still have new, custom chips to deal with, and they're going to have similar production SNAFUs as any new chips.
vidGuy @ Jul 28th 2006 4:02PM
Sega complains because there's only moderate 3rd party support right now, but knows that once this thing gets big it will garnish great support.
I agree that Wii and PS3 will both sell out there initial stock. But the Wii should attract a larger market overall than the very expensive PS3. After early adopters get the PS3, sales will slow. The Wii has the potential for continuous high sales.
As far as launch games, you don't need to worry about Wii, MosquitoControl. LoZ:TP and MP3 at launch, plus Red Steel, Wii Sports, and about a dozen others (6 titles are confirmed by Nintendo right now, which include the four I named).
Wii games will likely be $49.99 like this gen. Some MAY launch at $39.99, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Super-budget titles like Wii Sports (assuming Nintendo doesn't package it with the console) may come out at $19.99, otherwise they wouldn't see any sales, but the bulk will remain $39.99 - $49.99. And I'm happy with that.
someguy @ Jul 28th 2006 4:06PM
Business analysts still haven't got the hang of getting their hypothesises right on the game industry.
1) This point may be true, since the Wii, like Ds, will most likely influence non-gamers with its alternative control scheme. Okay I'll give them SOME credit there.
2)Okay so Nintendo is more popular with game designers. What does this have to do with the launch lineup? This may help in the long run, but as for now, the Wii launch line-up is set in stone and still nothing worth mentioning outside of Red Steel.
3)"Famitsu, a Japanese game-industry publisher, asked software creators which platforms they would most like to create games for in the future." This has to do with the FUTURE. Once again, not concerning launch.
If they had actually taken the time to really think this out they would have realized that a majority of people won't be able to afford Ps3 on launch day. That seems to be the deciding factor.
Oh yeah, and what do share prices for Nintendo have to do with this, again? Stock prices usually rise before any anticipated product is released from a major company. Does this mean that the investors know about some hidden potential in the Wii that the rest of us don't? Do they have prior knowledge of some killer app that will dominate come launch day? If they do then thats illegal.
SuicideNinja @ Jul 28th 2006 4:08PM
"Analysts add that the DS is also more popular with game designers. That's because the DS, with its dual screens, touch-screen technology, and voice recognition, offers something different from the PSP, which in many respects is a portable version of the PS2 with games to match."
I'm finding a lot of truth to this since I acquired a PSP a while back. The PSP is just a portable console that is worse than the PS2 (or almost as good half-empty/full, whatever). The DS keeps it interesting, fun, and quick. It's never been more apparent to me than now how important that is. Full fledged games might be okay for a road trip, but in most instances, it's just too much for a small slow response LCD screen.
Once I find a suitable TV adapter, my PSP is just going to become a console.
Jason Zeidan @ Jul 28th 2006 4:13PM
The Wii has over 20 games coming at launch, compared to the PS3's 12. here are the most popular Wii games that are coming at launch:
Zelda TP
Metroid Prime 3
Excitetruck
Red Steel
Madden '07
Rayman 4
Blitz The League
Marvel Ultimate Alliance
CoD 3
Project Hammer
Dragon Quest Swords
Wii Sports
Trauma Center
Tony Hawk DJ
The PS3's lineup, although too lazy to write them, is nowhere as impressive. The Wii's lineup not only wins out in quantity, but also in potential quality, seeing how Zelda, Metroid, and the other big ones are in there. It's gonna be a huge year for Nintendo. As for launch success, I would say that Wii will have a huge edge. Sony's lineup is pretty solid, but it won't sell nearly as well as Nintendo's. Sorry, had to say it.
PhoenixGeek @ Jul 28th 2006 4:33PM
I agree with most people here that the one that will sell the most units by the end of the year is the one who releases the most units. Both Wii and PS3 will sell out, and be doubled in price on Ebay for several months.
After that I predict that in Japan the Wii will shadow the DS and sell like hotcakes, selling out week after week even long after it's launch while the PS3 will have strong but much smaller sales numbers.
In the USA I predict a fairly even race for the first 6 months or so, then the Wii is likely to pull ahead if the PS3 dosn't come down in price.
The market will probably look a lot like the DS and PSP market, strong sales in Japan will take Nintendo to a world wide lead over the PS3, but it will take quite a while for either of them to catch up to the 360 with the 1 year head start for the install base.
cringer8 @ Jul 28th 2006 4:45PM
@someguy
The new Call of Duty will be on the Wii during the launch window. That's worth mentioning, as is Ubisoft's Rayman title. Oh, yeah, and Madden '07 with Wii functionality.
As for the developers, Game Informer's latest issue has an article where developers were polled on the next gen systems. The results are much different. Plenty of developers are excited about the PS3.
In regards to SEGA's comments on lack of support, they were referring to the developers that are just now getting on board. Those developers will miss the launch window, which SEGA sees as a mistake. They have a Wii-exclusive Sonic title ready to go before Christmas.
All-in-all, the Wii is going to see more Nintendo support than any console in the past. The PS3 will see the same amount of third part support the PS2 had (a hell of a lot).
Ryan @ Jul 28th 2006 4:56PM
I love it when people underestimate Nintendo, because it will make their victory all that much sweeter.
Even if Sony drops the price of their PS3 from $500 to $400, that's still a helluva lot more than what a Wii will cost. The thing about the Wii is, just like the DS, it will appeal to nongamers, to adults, parents, and people that normally dismiss video games.
As far as available shipments, I wouldn't worry about it too much. Look at Nintendo. They are holding their cards very close to their chest, and they are making their decisions very carefully and wisely this time.
Me personally, I am feeling very smug about Nintendo's soon-to-be takeover of the video gaming world. Because, let's face it, that's what it's all about. Not about if your system can browse the net, or play movies, or music, or go on a date with you, or braid your hair for you.
Will @ Jul 28th 2006 4:57PM
I think the PS3 and the Wii will both sell out everywhere...
I think the Wii is going to have less games at launch then most people would hope... There was an article a while back saying that not many developers had been on the ship before E3'06 because the Wii was so shrouded in mystery... now it is a little too late to get a game ready by the time of launch.
On the other hand, the PS3 has 10,000 dev. kits out and on PS3Portal.com's list of launch titles counted is at close to 30.
http://www.ps3forums.com/viewtopic.php?t=21927
LaughingTarget @ Jul 28th 2006 5:07PM
It really comes down to how the metrics of a success are defined. In terms of sales, it comes down to who can get more units out on the shelves come November, and that is something that is up in the air. Conventional wisdom may suggest Nintendo here, but they do have a lot of custom work (as stated earlier), so that isn't a guarantee.
When it comes to actually making money, Nintendo will run roughshod over the competition. Sony may take 3 years to actually break even on the PS3 project. Nintendo can pull that in a few months. Every Wii Nintendo sells will contribute to covering the R&D costs. Every unit Sony sells will just add to the mammoth expense they've already incurred on the PS3 project.
In the business of making money, selling 100 million units doesn't mean much when the competition makes more money selling 20% of what you do.
It all depends on how success defined. Much like how the PSP isn't that far behind the DS in sales, but Nintendo is making out like bandits while Sony is not seeing much at all from the handheld market. At best, Sony will come out with a tie. At worst, Nintendo will beat them up and down until black and blue. It just depends on what you call a success.
Russell Carroll @ Jul 28th 2006 5:12PM
Success = making money
Xbox 360 is supposed to turn a profit for 2008, but may not be profitable over it's run ($2 billion negative this year is very likely, first Xbox was $4 billion negative...overall I would guess Xbox 360 will be in the red)
PS3 is expected to be a huge drain. I doubt it will EVER be in the black due to development & production costs. However, if it makes Blu-Ray a standard in a marketplace that does buy HD movies, overall Sony would be in the black.
Wii will sell at a profit from the moment it is released, much like the DS. Nintendo will focus on making cheaper games, selling games it finished 10 years ago and potentially expanding their console market. Like the current generation Nintendo will come out farthest in the Black.
MoJoBo @ Jul 28th 2006 5:22PM
Plus....Nintendo Will Destroy all with its Mario Army
:P
Mr. Khan @ Jul 28th 2006 5:37PM
@someguy
Maybe you're just speaking on what titles you like, but i think in any case a Zelda title is a title worth mentioning, the GameCube was (relatively) a flop, but the Windwaker flew off the shelves on its launch
striderhayasa @ Jul 28th 2006 5:45PM
That's how I feel. With Metroid and Zelda at launch anything else that comes out is gravy. Those two games alone will keep me occupied at least for two months after launch. But I'm getting Excite Truck and Tony Hawks Down Hill JAm as well as Red Steel if it doesn't suck the big one. I think the Wii launch is going to be pretty good. If Nintendo packs in Wii Sports or the Duck Hunt remake, I think it'll be one of the best launches in console history.
I'm for the Wii. The 360 is good, but there are too many PC ports, PS2 ports and xbox ports for me to feel comfortable supporting it right now. When Gears comes out and few other great games, then I'll pick up a 360....sometime in 07.
Ps3....
....
....
...
Joney Jims @ Jul 28th 2006 5:55PM
Nintendo would need to triple the sales of the PS3 to gross more money, because they only make 1/3 of the money that Sony makes when they sell a console. It is because of this that I think Sony may make more money, but Nintendo will sell more consoles.
32_footsteps @ Jul 28th 2006 6:16PM
MosquitoControl, here's something to keep in mind: when the NES launched in the United States, the hardware was already two years old in Japan. Quite a few of the games that you call "launch titles" for the NES were made a year or two into the system's lifetime (for example, Super Mario Bros. came out a year after the Famicom's debut, and wasn't even Miyamoto's first Famicom game).
Actually pinning down launch titles for the NES is tricky, since the American launch could pick amongst the best Japanese games to launch with. Of the titles you cite, none were launch titles with the Famicom, and only Duck Hunt and Wild Gunman came out before the hardware's first birthday.
Want to know what the actual launch titles were for the Famicom? As far as I can find, Stack-Up, Donkey Kong, and Donkey Kong Jr. And the latter two were inferior ports from the arcade.
xenikos @ Jul 28th 2006 8:22PM
Can we put to bed the comparison between the DS's touchscreen and the Wii's controller? Very, very little of the interest in the DS is due to the touch screen. In fact, if the DS lacked that capacity, I don't think it would have much of a dent in its sales numbers at ALL. The DS is succeeding so well for three reasons:
1. Vast and diverse library of games, including lots of great GBA games. Final Fantasy remakes for RPG lovers, good sidescrollers, party/puzzle games, etc. etc.
2. A handful of titles that are more appealing to new gamers (these are the only titles that the touchscreen is useful for, really).
3. The fact that there is essentially zero competition. The PSP is more forward thinking for trying to position itself as an all around media device, but we aren't advanced enough technology wise for such a device to provide enough storage to do music, games, and movies cheaply. Plus it lacks games in a big way. If microsoft or someone else comes up with a $200 dollar handheld and gets even decent publisher support....they could easily steal a lot of Nintendo's thunder here. The handheld market is very much in play.
The point is that I do not think the touchscreen is integral to the DS success whatsoever - you put the touch screen on the PSP and remove it from the DS, and the DS still sells better. IT IS ALL ABOUT GAME CONTENT.
Nintendo has an unfortunate tendancy to get drunk off of peripheral craziness. The bombing of the Power Glove/ROB caused them to pull back from that for awhile, but now they're getting bolder about it. The Wii's success will have everything to do with its games, no matter what kind of controller you're using to play them.
Sean DL @ Jul 28th 2006 8:36PM
Everyone remembers when Business Week and all those other business types last year this time all wrote off Nintendo not even mention them outside of "Code Name Revolution" in there next gen reports(Mostly title PS3 vs 360)?
It's a amazing site to see Nintendo climb back...
vidGuy @ Jul 28th 2006 8:47PM
Well, xenikos, if those are the three things that make the DS a success, I'll go on record saying that the Wii will easily win this generation and could sell 70 to 100 million consoles.
1) Nintendo stands to have the largest library this gen. Everyone's excited about developing for the Wii, and it's cheaper to do so for the Wii than its competitors. If the Wii sells well, more and more third parties will jump on the bandwagon, since they won't stick to a system with horrible sales regardless of its name or past performance. They'll want in on the action, and the Wii will be reaching the biggest number of gamers.
2) Wii Sports, Wii Music, etc. Nintendo is trying to attract the casual gamer from day one. Now I agree that console gaming is way different than handheld gaming, but I've already heard from many non-gamers around me that they are excited to play Wii Sports. With the same philosophy as the DS in this area, Nintendo is starting off on the right foot.
3) Nintendo is offering a very different product at a very different price point than its competitors. Nintendo seems to think that makes it so that they are not directly competiting with MS and Sony. And it's quite possibly true.
I agree with you. The console that attracts the most games ends up winning the console war, because an impressive game library is what attracts the biggest part of the gaming market, not fast processors or flashy optical drives. Sony stands to lose its support; not early on, because most developers haven't thought through what's likely to happen due to the high development costs and high entrace fees to gaming on the PS3, but sometime after all the early adopters have a PS3 and sales slow, while the Wii sales continue strong.
[-Z-] @ Jul 28th 2006 9:55PM
Hi, I just paid $60 for a psychic and she said that Wii will be succesful on the first year(2007) but fall short the next year(2008+), however DS will continue to appeal to youth heart just like their old GBA. Even It's all based on sixth sense, the prediction was almost the same with the Business Analyst, not accurate. Well they have their numbers and I have my crystal ball.
xenikos @ Jul 28th 2006 11:51PM
Vidguy -
Can't any point be made outside of the Wii vs. PS3 ruberik? =) That dichotomy provides a find forum arguing point, but things are a lot messier than that. And all I was really talking about was that when people say "DS sells well. DS has touchscreen. DS sells because of touchscreen. Therefore Wiimote = success!"...that is insufficiently warranted reasoning, in my opinion.
But I'll address your arguments. I'm of the opinion that the Wii will be more successful than the Gamecube by far, of course.
1. Largest library? Where are you getting these stats? I'd like to see some arguments supporting those claims...it is hard to say, but I would argue that Nintendo's traditional lack of 3rd party support compared to other systems will still be in place to a large extent (plus the fact that many games will be able to run on the 360/PS3 and NOT on the Wii).
2. Wii Sports? I've heard about ONE football game...probably more, but sports gamers are usually NOT "casual" gamers. They pay attention to features, and graphics, and all that jazz. Why would Wii do any better than the "big boys" in this category?
As for music...do you mean that thing that was in the E3 presentation? That looks kind of lame to me, personally. I'll be QUITE happy with my Guitar Hero, thank you very much.
You're right that Nintendo puts more of a focus on alternative games that cater to nontraditional gamers, and that'll be a big bonus for them. But other consoles aren't exactly immune to this strategy either (Guitar Hero is a great example). In fact, I guarantee you that Sony and Microsoft will make sure developers make more quirky games that seem fun to nongamers, as a means to capitalize on the DS's success and the Wii's buzz.
One thing to keep in mind is that while Nintendo has done a FANTASTIC marketing job making the Wii seem like a glorious utopia of NEWness (aka, a revolution), Nintendo is more dependent upon a small handful of franchises (super mario/zelda/metriod) than other consoles. You don't see lots of new breakout stand alones like God of War on Nintendo consoles.
3. Nintendo isn't competing with Microsoft and Sony? Now that's a load of crock. People with lots of cash might well buy multiple consoles over time, but a lot of folks do not have that luxury. Is Nintendo's argument - that people will think it is worth it to play less meaty games for 1/3rd-1/2 the cost - going to be well accepted? It'll get a lot of people to buy in, for sure. But I know the consoles are competing for me, at least. I'm interested in Super Smash Bros Melee (because I have 6 roommates). Not much else though...and a console that has support from Square-Enix, Red Octane, Metal Gear Solid, and GTA....kind of hard to turn down. If I'm busy with those games, do I want to spend a lot more money on a Wii? I'm open to it depending on how games go down, but at this point, I'd have to say no.
cubsbearsbullsrule @ Jul 29th 2006 2:01AM
does anyone know how much tickets are for the nintendo fusion tour and when they go onsale
Psaakyrn @ Jul 29th 2006 3:45AM
to #25 Joney Jims:
By your basis, Nintendo has already won, since each PS3 actually sells at a loss, and even though we've no estimates on the Wii, Nintendo is known to sell products more than their production costs. (in summary: Each PS3 sold costs Sony money, each Wii sold earns Nintendo money.) Get your facts right before posting again.
blahman @ Jul 29th 2006 3:54AM
@Iwata
The tv is behind you.
ill trooper @ Jul 29th 2006 4:47AM
I hate to sound like I don't like it, but I played the Wii and it was sort of a let-down that it was only at 480p and it looked like an old Xbox title. I'm always reading about dudes on here saying HDTV isn't important or you think it's too expensive, but take a hike pal, HDTV is awesome, and it's not so expensive that you shouldn't consider getting one when it it's time for a replacement TV.
"It's not about the graphics, it's about the GAMES' is a common retort I see here in these comments, to which I say: Good games can have good graphics TOO, but an weaker system can't unfold it's power with developer's familiarity as far as the 360 and the PS3 will. I think this might be a bit of problem for Nintendo in a few years, and it sort of brings me down - this system, with more power, would be even MORE awesome.
The PS3 will do fine against this thing because they actually are TWO different consoles, in two different price catagories, and honestly, I, like many people, will buy both, adding it to the area where my 360 resides. Resided. Out for repair. But it will reside again, I say!
The Wii games I played were not 100% motivating, but I'm still really down to buy the system. It's a fun topic: How will the Wii do? Will it blow the 360 or PS3 away? I doubt it. If you think this is going to dent the PS3 sales, you are mistaken. Two different markets, meaning that if you have a few kids, a GameCube and a slim PS2, a few GBAs and a DS, you are gonna feel the pull to the Wii, and likely pass on the PS3 until a few years, when it's more established, and likely cheaper. The PS3 is aiming for a higher-paying entertainment-center market that the PS2 invented when it dropped a DVD drive in the mix oh-so-many years ago, and if you're buying one at launch, it's very likely you can afford to buy the Wii as well.
40-60 avid freaks on a gaming blog is not a good indicator of how reaction to the PS3 is going to be. This same small, vocal group is also going to freak out in glee when the PS3 starts shipping - look at the comments on anything concerning Gears of War and you would think people were talking about GoldenEye, even though GoW hasn't even been given an official ship date, or played in anything but people's imaginations as they wax on about how wonderful GoW will be. As I read the speculation-as-fact, I'm reminded of Perfect Dark Zero, how the anticipation was, and how people feel about that now game that it's out and in the wild. We are fickle bunch and shouldn't really be taken too seriously.
Both systems can coexist.
John Lucas @ Jul 29th 2006 7:50AM
Every poster who proudly got out on the limb & called Nintendo the next-gen champ, KUDOS!
Ryan, vidGuy & any others who weren't hedging their bets.
~Words from Ryan:
[[20. I love it when people underestimate Nintendo, because it will make their victory all that much sweeter....
...The thing about the Wii is, just like the DS, it will appeal to nongamers, to adults, parents, and people that normally dismiss video games...
...Me personally, I am feeling very smug about Nintendo's soon-to-be takeover of the video gaming world. Because, let's face it, that's what it's all about. Not about if your system can browse the net, or play movies, or music, or go on a date with you, or braid your hair for you.]]
I love it too, Ryan. People have forgotten who the leader of the industry is & have counted them out for the flashy upstart. Sony has NEVER REALLY been the TRUE leader. They have ONLY cooled SOME of Nintendo's overall dominance by gaining power in the homeconsole realm (through 3rd party power). When Nintendo makes a move (wii controller), everyone soon follows ("dual shake"). That shows you who the leader is. Don't fool yourself. Nintendo is *still* the man to beat in gaming. That's why Microsoft is trying to cut Sony first. They KNOW they can't dethrone Nintendo & really deep down so does Sony.
But in the process through the competition we ALL get the benefits from all companies.
Nintendo's just coming back to reclaim that lost territory of dominance this gen that's all.
And they damn sure will succeed. The writing's on the wall. They're playing every card right.
~Words from vidGuy:
[[30. Well, xenikos, if those are the three things that make the DS a success, I'll go on record saying that the Wii will easily win this generation and could sell 70 to 100 million consoles...
...The console that attracts the most games ends up winning the console war, because an impressive game library is what attracts the biggest part of the gaming market, not fast processors or flashy optical drives.]]
Thank you for saying 'EASILY', vidGuy. People just don't want to admit how ingenious the whole Wii idea & concept was. Even the name which I TOO was doubtful about is working. Doesn't seem NEAR as weird now & actually Revolution now sounds foreign.
(each one of the bulletpoints in your post were dead on, by the way)
I truly believe Nintendo will regain at LEAST a plurality of the marketshare this time around & possibly a majority speaking of the homeconsole realm only. Overall they have NEVER lost plurality of marketshare due the powerful handhelds in conjunction with the console.
There's no earthly way short of World War III (which I hope is not brewing) that anything can stop the Wii Juggernaut.
It WILL reinvent gaming & perception of gaming. It WILL open up better than ever before gaming to brand new audiences. And with Nintendo's well-known tight business plan (profit on EVRYTHING/loss leader = loser) they are about to make RECORD profits not seen since the days of the NES & SNES. Nintendo stock will be platinum when this is all over.
Since September 2005 at the Tokyo Game Show with the unveiling of that controller my mind was made up right then & there. And no surprise that only Nintendo would be ballsy enough to try out such an ingenious idea.
Everything since then has only solidfied my viewpoint.
Bob Ross the videogame??? GENIUS! ONLY on Nintendo.
This Wii thing just has too much going for it to fail.
And surprisingly Sony is only making it easier for Nintendo to steal their bread & butter: The 3rd party.
Once that goes Sony is dead & THAT'S what people fail to realize when talking about Sony contesting Nintendo.
Nintendo 64 & Gamecube largely ran on 1st & 2nd party support. Home franchises. And it kept them afloat in home console realm. Add on the 3rd party to return library volume to Nintendo like in the NES/SNES days & Nintendo is DOMINANT. They survived in Drought. What do you think they're gonna do in Precipitation? THRIVE.
And the launch games are just the FIRST blow. Wait until those OTHER monsters down the pike get started.
F-Zero Wii, Mario Kart Wii, & ESPECIALLY Super Smash Bros. Brawl ALONE will be system movers. The stores won't be able to KEEP 'em in stock. For months. Get ready for a repeat of Nintendogs & such sales wise.
Cue the Wayans: "Mo' Money, Mo' Money, Mo' Money!"
People gotta stop underestimating this old company. There's a reason why they saved the industry in the 1980's.
Call it like it is. Nintendo's not gonna just win next-gen, they will OWN next-gen.
John Lucas
Jules @ Jul 29th 2006 9:46AM
*high-fives John Lucas*
I'm with you man! Nintendo will rock the next gen consoles!!
vidGuy @ Jul 29th 2006 12:38PM
@xenikos
I agree that people shouldn't look at the Wii remote and say it automatically guarantees success. And I'm not doing that myself. I'm looking at the big picture, looking at the fact that the PS2 had the biggest game library this generation and led the market by an astounding margin, looking at how much cheaper the Wii is going to be than its competitors, looking at how many developers are saying the Wii is genious and its fun and interesting (and cheaper) to program for, looking at the success of the DS and how Nintendo plans to bring those game ideas to console gaming (I bet Brain Age Wii is in the works), looking at how a huge percentage of gamers are wanting EITHER a (PS3 OR a 360) AND a Wii, and putting it all together.
Third party developers will surely be with Sony in the beginning because those who haven't looked at the market situation expect Sony to come out on top again. But what happens if by Holidays 2007 Nintendo has a 2 to 1 lead over Sony? Third parties are going to jump ship and take their fun/new games to the Wii and their biggest-budget titles to the 360. The only thing in my mind that is saving Sony from complete failure this generation is that the 360 can't sell in Japan. So over there, the Wii will sell well and the PS3 will be the dominating high-powered system. But while MS and Sony are duking it out worldwide, Nintendo is picking up great sales all over. I do believe Nintendo is competing with MS and Sony because they are all selling a video game console. But Nintendo's is trying to reach a completly different market, and that puts them out of DIRECT competition.
Jumping tracks here, Wii Music is said to include the conducting game and various instruments, drums being confirmed, with guitar, piano, and others likely possibilities. I myself LOVE Guitar Hero and I can't wait for GH2 this fall, but I see potential for these other types of games on a Nintendo console. The point I was making is that Nintendo is expanding their IPs, offering the same Mario and Zelda franchises, yes, but expanding into different markets with simpler, quirky games like Brain Age and Nintendogs, while also moving into darker, more hardcore genres with Project H.A.M.M.E.R. and Disaster: Day of Crisis. If Zelda and Mario and SSBB sell as well as they should, and Brain Age is as much of a hit on Wii as on the DS, and Nintendo makes one hit with all of their darker IPs, you have a wildly successful console on half a dozen games. Add to that the potential for astounding third party support, and this console's sales will roll over anything.
@John Lucas,
I do strongly believe Nintendo has set itself up for amazing success this coming generation. In comparison, MS has set itself up for continued growth but has failed to approach the top because of a horrible rep in Japan. I have little doubt MS could win the US in terms of consoles sold, but worldwide they won't approach the top at all. Sony, on the other hand, has made many mistakes, IMO, and will suffer the consequences after the early adopters all have their PS3.
What I find embarassing on MS's side is that the 360 has only sold 4 to 5 million. They stand to reach about 8 to 10 million this holiday season, and sales will skyrocket when Halo 3 comes out. But Nintendo and Sony will have sold 6 million by March 2007. A 2 or 3 million lead isn't much when you've had a whole year on the market.
apoc06 @ Jul 29th 2006 12:56PM
"In the business of making money, selling 100 million units doesn't mean much when the competition makes more money selling 20% of what you do."
Your argument makes sense on a surface level, but from a business standpoint that doesn't mean much. From a publisher standpoint [not the developers'], Nintendo isn't as perfect as you may think. The problem with publishing for Nintendo consoles is that Nintendo ends up making most of that profit. If you look at a list of their recent consoles a great majority of their million plus sales are first party games. That's great, but if you're a third party developer and you publish a game on a Nintendo platform, chances are that you will get overshadowed by the Pokemon/ Mario/ Link/ Samus & co. behemoth.
20 million DS's sold [almost as many as the total number of Gamecubes sold] and only one third party title has sold over a million. Sales are going squarely into Nintendo's pockets, just as they always have. They represent a large portion of marketshare, but the Nintendo demographic generally isn't easy to tap as a third party.
Lou @ Jul 29th 2006 4:09PM
Some people talk about 3rd parties like Sony owns leases on them. They go where the console sales are. Occassionally, a first party will woo a developer for a certain game by deals such as covering any losses if a certain qty of units is not sold, but that's about it. Also, licensing feels are about $5 a game per unit sold. A $50 game is sold to distributers for about $25 so that retail can make there margin. That $20 difference is what the developer gets. If he spent $1,000,000 developing a game, the developer's break even point is 50,000 units sold.
The average development costs of a GC game were ~$800,000, there are stats on Gamespot. So it's not hard to make money, however, it is hard because you have those costs upfront and recoup them later. That's why smaller developers only made PS2 games. They don't have $2 million to make a game simultaneouly for 3 consoles. So they go with the only with the biggest target audience. This gen, that was the PS2. Next gen, the 360 has the head start, but developers can't ignore "launch" sales on the PS3 and Wii.
That's why other than sequels and a few launch games, developers aren't announcing long term projects for next gen until they see how the holidays turn out.
So wii wiill have to waiit and sii what happens...
N-ZERO @ Jul 29th 2006 5:15PM
aproc06 and others PLEASE READ THIS. you guys think that 3rd parties will have a hard time selling their games because of Nintendo's titles but you also have to realize that 3rd parties can choose when to launch their games. I mean look say your a 3rd party developer and you know super smash bros brawl is coming out March and you have a big title that you want to sell well on the Wii. Are you going to launch it March or Maybe 2 months later after people have bought their copies. If you were a 3rd party you would want to avoid launching when a huge nintendo game launches because then it will over shadow your gam. but their are exceptions of when a 3rd party can launch a game in the same month or week as a HUGE nintendo title. that is during Christmas time. People are buying presents and they have enough money to get multiple games. But times like march or april to launch a game when a big nintendo game will launch also is bad cause people will want to get a game that is huge and they only have a certain amount so they will go after that huge title. So publishers and Nintendo have to watch when they launch their titles. Nintendo watches when it launches their titles. why do you think they wait a little bit before launching another huge nintendo franchise. so 3rd parties have their moment too. thats why nintendo only releases a certain amount of nintendo titles christmas so 3rd paries also get their dough too.
Jim @ Jul 29th 2006 9:01PM
@37, John Lucas.
As far as video game history show, NO company that was pushed of #1 spot ever recovered and became the top dog again.
While Nintendo probably might be the first company to get ahead of the competition, I sill doubt it very much.
Why? Simple answer: I'm not so sure that Wii can broaden the market and convince "non-gamers" to play games - I haven't had the chance to test the Wii controller and I remain very sceptical to whether I would like it or not. Sony has bad PR at the moment and they should be very careful what to do after launch. but if the want to counter the cheaper Wii they only have to pump out games like Guitar Hero/Sing Star/Eye Toy on an even cheaper PS2. Personally I don't like the sound of my own words but "Sony innovated in the current-gen probably more than Nintendo".
A very interesting role play Xbox 360, because in my book the have exactly the right package (medium pricing, bullet-proof killer online service, high def games AND low cost xbox live arcade games) for the average games.
Chowweekly @ Jul 30th 2006 1:59AM
This feels a little out of place here with everyone writing essays and all, but here it goes:
There are more people willing to spend $300 to play games on a console than there are people willing to pay $660 to play games on a console.
I only know of one person who can say with a strainght face that they're planning to buy a PS3 at this point. And he only wants it because Metal Gear will be on it. WTH?
John Lucas @ Jul 30th 2006 4:58AM
Jay (msg #43): [[43. @37, John Lucas.
As far as video game history show, NO company that was pushed of #1 spot ever recovered and became the top dog again.]]
Well...none until now.
Atari was NOT Nintendo & that's why they were never able to recover in the industry to their former status.
Nintendo has been a solid hitmaking machine since they jumped into this biz 25-some-odd years ago & they are the ONLY ones who really move the industry forward. Nearly all features in the gaming experience today were brought to the stage by Nintendo first.
And it is BECAUSE they came from the old eras that they can return to their former glory again. Mario & Donkey Kong is almost as old as Pac-Man. Their impact on the culture spreads beyond videogames. Nintendo KNEW to make icons out of their game characters along with their games because it only assured that these characters would be accepted into people's hearts. This brings loyalty to Nintendo & a soft spot for the company even IF they stop being Nintendo loyalists.
The pure simple fact of the matter is we all would not be playing videogames today like we do if it wasn't for Nintendo in one way or another. Either directly or indirectly by the competition that arose trying to outdo Nintendo.
I made a post on USENET early last November BEFORE X-Box 360 was released predicting the state of the next-generation. I used cues from the past generations, features of the current generation & a little intuition to make forecasts.
And it seems my theories are panning out.
Only one thing I didn't think of was Sony's role in affecting the next-generation.
I knew the fight was between Microsoft & Sony with Nintendo floating overhead out the fray but I only counted what Microsoft would do to shift the outcomes. I didn't put down things Sony would soon do to sabotage themselves or the others.
Read it to see if you agree.
It's no doubt in my mind that Nintendo will reemerge as a dominant champion in the console realm much less in overall gaming.
I see Microsoft possibly gaining in western markets as eventual #2 if they play their cards right with Sony being a DISTANT #2 in Japan due to Nintendo's definite domination there. Microsoft I KNOW is gunning for Sony & once they pull some of that 3rd party away from Sony they will get their edge. Microsoft can't challenge Nintendo until Sony's out of the way first.
Future of Next-Generation of Gaming (November 5, 2005)
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.games.video.nintendo/browse_frm/thread/b7d7bd99319ce61f/0705ce1ecf6a257a?lnk=st&q=&rnum=1&hl=en#0705ce1ecf6a257a
John Lucas
Brad Lee @ Jul 30th 2006 6:28PM
Unlike everyone else, I actually think the 360 will sell the most this holiday season. Nintendo and Sony alike will be frantically manufacturing consoles until the very last second to get as many out at launch as they possibly can. However, it is inevitable that no matter how many they produce it will just not be enough. This is where 360 comes in. Anyone that can't get a hold of a Wii or PS3 will quite possibly buy a 360 just because they are in stock and because they don't want to wait months for another shipment to arrive for the Wiis or PS3s. Also, lets keep in mind that while Wii and PS3 will probably only have about 10 games each for launch (thats just my rough estimation), the 360 will have a year's worth of games under its belt, along with a few big titles like Gears of War, which, if it meets the hype, will sell huge amounts of 360s by itself.
"Very, very little of the interest in the DS is due to the touch screen. In fact, if the DS lacked that capacity, I don't think it would have much of a dent in its sales numbers at ALL." by xenikos
Thats funny, considering the only reason I bought a DS was exactly because of the touch screen, and I am by no means alone in that venture. DS attracted a lot of new consumers with games like Brain Age and Nintendogs, both of which were known to really boost hardware sales (in other words, a lot of people bought DSs for those games). Without the touch screen, neither game would have been at all sucessful. And, without the DS's unique features, it would have been little more than an underpowered PSP without multimedia functionality. Saying the touch screen isn't at all important to the DS is as ignorant a claim as saying multimedia functionality isn't important to the PSP. Point of fact, a survey revealed that most people who bought a PSP said that multimedia functionality and UMD movies were both very important factors in their purchase. The multimedia functionality gives the PSP added value for the money, and at the same time is added incentive to purchase it, especially to gamers that don't have a portable mp3 or movie player. On the other side of the spectrum, the DS's unique features (two screens, touch screen, and microphone) add unique elements to otherwise run of the mill games, and add completely new and unique games to the mix. These new ways of playing games gives the DS added value. I'm not saying the touch screen was detrimental to the DS's success. Quite frankly, had Nintendo just released a "Super Gameboy Advance" it probably would have done quite well. But to say the touch screen did nothing to help its sales is just plain silly.
"Wii Sports? I've heard about ONE football game...probably more, but sports gamers are usually NOT "casual" gamers." by xenikos
Apparently you haven't seen Wii Sports then. It is essentially three mini games (homerun derby, a golf game, and a tennis game) that use the controller's motion sensitivity entirely for the gameplay. It will be very simple and straightforward, meaning it will be easy to play for nongamers and casuals, and sure to attract that target consumer. If Wii ends up being a big hit, it WILL be because of the controller. The reason is because PS3 and 360 are on completely different technological levels. Wii simply can't compare in that category. However, Wii does have a unique controller that can be used to create completely unique games that cannot be played on PS3 or 360. For Wii to be a success, Nintendo will have to get a lot of killer games on the system with unique wiimote functionality. Otherwise, there will be little reason for people to buy the Wii over the 360 or PS3. A drop in price doesn't matter much if the console is crippled by comparison to the competition. However, add in a unique controller and some games that can only be played with that controller, and all of a sudden the Wii holds a lot of value.
To say the DS's touch screen has no impact on its sales is just silly, but to say the Wii's controller will not impact its sales is just blind ignorance. Lets all keep in mind that the Wii was built as a vessel for the controller. And, I'd say its safe to say that if the Wii ends up being a huge success, it will be all thanks to the new controller.