Goodbye disc media, hello downloadable games!
Wired magazine's David Kushner explores the likely shift from disc media to downloading games and how it could revive the gaming industry. From the article: "Flexible, downloadable games like SingStar are a hint of what the entire gaming industry will look like five years from now. Digital distribution and ultrawideband Web connections have the potential to eliminate the need for discs entirely, yet console makers are still engaged in a disc format war – the PS3 will ship with a Blu-ray drive, and Microsoft is releasing an HD-DVD drive for the Xbox 360... That struggle, however, is ultimately meaningless."
Said Sony's Phil Harrison: "I'd be amazed if the PlayStation 4 has a physical disc drive."
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
benjamin @ Aug 4th 2006 1:22PM
"I'd be amazed if the PlayStation 4 has a physical disc drive."
Yet Sony will *still* delay it in the hopes of finalizing another format.
Ba-zing!
Sorry, all, I couldn't resist.
Robotic House Plant @ Aug 4th 2006 1:25PM
The writing has been on the wall for some time. We're moving towards digital. Disc should be irrelevant. We have Internet2 which is not yet mainstream. We have newer streaming and compression technologies. Digital distribution potentially means more profit for the end companies, plus it could curb piracy. Music has shifted digital. Pictures have shifted digital. Why not movies and TV?
Vazel @ Aug 4th 2006 1:28PM
And nearly half of them will be connected to the web by 2011? Kind of surprised most of them aren't already...
Justin @ Aug 4th 2006 1:28PM
Playstation 4, Xbox720 and Nintendo WeeWii will still have physical drives next generation unless the current gen (ps3, 360, wii) last for 10 years. Sorry but most mainstream consumers will still not have a console hooked up to the internet in 5 or 6 years. Things just don't work that fast.
fwacce @ Aug 4th 2006 1:28PM
Since this would mean the end of used games, it would essentially mean that it would get much more expensive to be a gamer when this happens.
bv @ Aug 4th 2006 1:28PM
Shudders at the thought of a PS4 release date and price.
Dracula Jones @ Aug 4th 2006 1:29PM
They're forgetting there's a big overlap between gamers and collectors. People like amassing, alphabetizing, and showing off their game library.
JimmyHACK @ Aug 4th 2006 1:31PM
in 10 years ya will be downloaded, but internet speeds in us are nowhere near needed to get a 5 gig plus game in a short period of time... so optical media will not go anywhere soon.
Cynders @ Aug 4th 2006 1:32PM
Just what I want: for my console to have some sort of hardware problem, and not only do I have to buy a new console, I have to buy all my games again.
fygar @ Aug 4th 2006 1:32PM
Kind of a no-brainer, don't ya think? Xbox Live already has tons of downloadable demos, updaters, Arcade games, upgrades, and other goodies. It's not too hard to make the jump that entire games will soon be downloadable and no one will ever have to touch a disc or worry about competing formats.
Sony definitely wasted a lot of money on Blu-Ray...
Tom @ Aug 4th 2006 1:34PM
9
all games you download are connected to your accout. you wont lose them
Vazel @ Aug 4th 2006 1:35PM
Uh, no you wouldn't Cynders. Ever used Steam? All you need is your account info and you can redownload your games anywhere.
vidGuy @ Aug 4th 2006 1:36PM
How long do you want to wait for that download?
Seems to me Sony would be switching gears completely. This gen they are touting BluRay because of the expansive size, next gen they'd have to go much smaller size-wise, and that's not happening. It'll be several more console generations before the internet backbone speeds are available to the home user. Only then will downloading a 30GB game be efficient and viable (by the time it happens, games will probably be that big; I don't expect them to reach that size anytime soon).
Sony will be eating their words when it comes time to make another console, provided that they still have the cash and market to make a PS4.
ZENegade @ Aug 4th 2006 1:38PM
Alright now, let me be the ~5th to say: what the crap? I mean if Sony is pushing their 25 Gig-per-layer disc format why would analysts say something like this? So far HDDs for consoles go up to a rumored 100 GB (360 right?) and with the ability to multi-layer these next-gen discs, why are we already jumping to the conclusion of discs being obsolete? They are a much more meaningful format than downloads because an entire game download would do a significant number on the HDD! Besides, what would happen to backwards compatibility? Seriously, maybe the next-gen (im talkin the PS4s and the XBOX 720s and the Nintendo Mammary Glands) will have downloadable games WITH DISC BURNING DRIVES but I doubt they will be solely download-driven.
Besides, that would KILL retailers.
Anta @ Aug 4th 2006 1:41PM
no one is remembering that the PS3s and Xbox 360s life span WILL be of 10 years, in 10 years more than 50% of game consoles will be hooked up to the internet, my guess is about 80% of them.
jabbertrack @ Aug 4th 2006 1:41PM
Here in the online world we tend to think of the internet being available everywhere in the world and at blinding speeds.
Hurmun @ Aug 4th 2006 1:42PM
Haha, I only looked at the graph and thought "connected" meant connected to a television. I was like "wtf, who buys a game console and doesn't connect it to their television?"
VampireHunter Z @ Aug 4th 2006 1:44PM
All these people preaching digital distribution are crazy. Have they thought about broadband bandwidth and the growing size of games? If a big title like say Halo4 was to be downloaded how will their servers handle all the requests? Everyone would be downloading at dial-up speeds.(Remember E3 week and free XBL gold)
I would be really pissed if I'm paying all that money for a game and it's downloading at 3.2kb/sec. When I could just run to the store or in the case of some of us have the game shipped to our doorstep.
Lets not forget the law of equivalent trade. If the games are not on media discs that means they have to be stored on your harddrive. How large will these harddrives be and how will they decide what size is "good"? Imagine losing a harddrive with a $1000 worth of content. Even if you are a licensee of the software and can d/l again, would you have the patience?
Hoffer @ Aug 4th 2006 1:47PM
5. It could also mean cheaper games. If more people have to buy games instead of rent or buying used, there will be more sales. If they keep the games at $60 and everyone has to buy every game, not near as many people will buy a console. It would be in the game developers best interest to cut the cost of games and they would sell more.
The main reason I don't mind buying Xbox Live Arcade games is because they are cheap. If they started charging $20-30 per game, I'd be less likely to buy them.
7. What percentage of people actually save all their old games? I'm sure there are quite a few, but I bet the percentage is very low. I sell like 95% of my games when the next gen comes out.
8. They could do like Steam does. Steam pre-loads games to your system up to a month before it is released. Then on release day, a patch is downloaded to unlock it. True, if you had a spur of the moment purchase, you couldn't play it for a while.
I have heard that games could be designed so you don't have to download the entire game to start playing. You just download the engine and the first level and you start playing. Then it downloads the rest of the game in the background. By the time you finish level 1, level 2 will be done downloading.
9. Like others have said, you just download them again. That's how the Marketplace works on Xbox Live now. If you delete an Arcade game you bought, you can download it again, whenever, for free.
Greg @ Aug 4th 2006 1:47PM
Bye by gamestop!!! No more used and ebay games at low prices screw that, no more blockbuster either dayum!! This move would hurt a lot of businesses' and gamers. doubt they do this because some people still have dial-up and not everyone has online....they're making a big assumption that everyone will have online...as a matter of fact not everyone has a computer. Its like the whole making people want HDTV's because of the next put at least you can use your pc monitor or old tv...with this next thing if you dont have internet your assed out...i guess you could download at a friend s house.
Phranctoast @ Aug 4th 2006 1:49PM
i like physical media. how would you rent games otherwise?
CaptNink @ Aug 4th 2006 1:49PM
"...and how it could revive the gaming industry."
I didn't realize the gaming industry required reviving!
Tobor @ Aug 4th 2006 1:50PM
Cons:
1. NO backwards compatability
2. NO used games
3. NO imports
Pros:
1. NO EB games/Gamespot reserves nonsense
2. NO sellouts or rare hard to find titles
3. NO getting up from the couch to change games
I'm down with it.
Jacob @ Aug 4th 2006 1:51PM
Just like movies, and even music (to an extent), I like having a physical disc in my posession.
What happens when the HDD in your PS4 dies? Gotta download the games all over again. Even if they have you on record as having purchased it, they'll probably charge you a "nominal fee" to re-download.
bassbeast @ Aug 4th 2006 1:52PM
Not going to happen, and for a few reasons:
1) What would happen to the brick-and-mortar stores? That would be the death knell of every game shop other than the local used game stores (whose products will disappear sooner or later). It's too large an industry to change that quickly.
2) I'll just echo the investment in Blu-Ray and HD-DVD as more fuel to fire this argument.
3) Many avid gamers are also collectors. I enjoy looking at my shelves and seeing the collection I've been able to amass. If I'm going to pay $50-$60 or more for a product, I want to be able to hold it in my hand, and have something to show for it. If my hard drive dies, I'll lose everything. Yes, with most services I should be able to re-download a la Xbox Live, but who wants to sit there to replace a collection of over 200+ titles?
It's not so cut and dry, and more likely a case of sensational journalism. With the summer news dry-spell, I'm not surprised this has become as big as it is.
Greg @ Aug 4th 2006 1:57PM
OH LAWD IM GETTING NICKELED AND DIMED TOO DEATH SOMEONE SAVE ME!!!!
DG @ Aug 4th 2006 2:03PM
I can't wait to download PS4 games through nationwide wifi while I'm driving in my hydrogen car.
msdarnell @ Aug 4th 2006 2:04PM
That and the fact that ISP's would have to lift restraints on bandwidth. Right now, for instance, the only high speed option I can get is 1.5 mb/s download, but a total of 16 gigs dowload a month. That's not even one game, plus at those speeds it would take all damn month.
ZENegade @ Aug 4th 2006 2:06PM
Could Entitlements theoretically buy you an entire game?
ZENegade @ Aug 4th 2006 2:08PM
And yea, that totally is one game #25... 9 Gig per layer for DVDs
thunderleg @ Aug 4th 2006 2:16PM
I agree with the arguments against this silly downloadable games thing. I seriously doubt the Internetsky will have the bandwidth to handle this traffic, and peope do enjoy having the actual physical media. Just a few minutes ago I dug out my small SNES collection and startled myself with some of the rare or valauble games I had. FF2, FF3, Chrono Trigger, Earthbound, Ogre Battle, Secret of Mana, Super Metroid. I actually swore out loud, "Holy ^$%#! I didn't realize I had these!" Also, should they survive, what would retailers stock? Cables? Controllers? I guess they'll run their stores from portable hotdog stands or ice cream bicycles.
chris3116 @ Aug 4th 2006 2:18PM
Justin, you seem to forget something.
Wii has the Wiiconnect24 (it's not the online service. It's part of it. The online is still called Wi-FI Connection.). The WiiConnect 24 allows the console to be online 24/7 even if the console is off. It allows you to download things like new maps or updates when the console is on stand-by. The only way to stop this is to unplug the console.
Yadneb @ Aug 4th 2006 2:19PM
Most of my gaming friends enjoy keeping there games and showing off their collection. I am guessing that some sort of physical media will need to at the very least be an option next gen.
vidGuy @ Aug 4th 2006 2:28PM
@32,
"The only way to stop this is to unplug the console."
Or not have a wireless internet connection, block its IP, etc. Nintendo might even put in an option to turn the service off. After all, it'll eat away a portion of that small internal memory, so you shouldn't be forced to take it for games that you don't play/want updates for.
LaughingTarget @ Aug 4th 2006 2:40PM
Tobor -
Actually, there is a good chance BC will be more than viable in a digital distribution system. Take Steam for example. Load it onto your computer and every game you ever purchased will be available, no matter what hardware you load it on. By having a centralized software device like Steam on a console, it will allow all the games to work just fine, barring Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo, and any other newcomer companies insist on developing a separate online service for each console developed. Unlikely since Live for Xbox and 360 aren't different services.
msdarnell - Do you live in Europe? Most US braodband doesn't have that problem. You could probably make some buku bucks if you opened up an unlimited transfer ISP.
bassbeast - I seriously doubt Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo, EA, Activision, etc really care if EB or GameStop goes under. It isn't their concern. A direct distribution method reduces costs. If the end-user downloads the new game, there goes packaging costs, disk media costs, and distribution costs. This means the end user consumer gets the game at a lower price and the developer makes a bigger profit. The only ones effected are a few minimum wage retail workers. Besides, the elimination of game shops isn't going to have a negative impact on the economy. The number of people Gamestop employs is fairly insignificant and wouldn't even register on national unemployment rates if they got laid off tomorrow.
Phranctoast - Rentals are far eaiser in this format, believe it or not. Again, look at the way Steam is handling Red Orchestra. You download the game, play it for a few days, and then it gets locked down. You can either "rent" it again, or buy the full version. The downside is rentals will turn into glorified demos. They'll remove various key features from the rental and you end up paying for a demo.
When broadband install bases increase, the direct distribution method will be highly beneficial to both end consumers and publishers. Fewer costs and higher profit margins for publishers. Lower costs for consumers. Furthermore, various pirates will no longer have the "I am just backing up the game" excuse for using burnt games. They don't need to back it up when a central server has the game available to download 24/7.
What would suck, however, is if publishers start charging for multiple downloads of the game. If you bought it, you should have access to it whenever you want. Limited hard drive space, no matter how big they get, demands the consumer remove titles to make room for new ones. They should be able to get the old ones back down the road at no extra charge.
Digital distribution will also drive more sales. It is far easier to buy something when you never have to leave the couch and all the options are opened in front of your eyes. True, a few do enjoy going to the store, but the bulk of people hate shopping. They like getting the product, but not the hassle of driving to the store and searching for it. A digital distribution method will drive more compulsive purchases, benefitting the publishers.
salvage @ Aug 4th 2006 2:44PM
I'd be amazed if there is a PlayStation 4.
Tobor @ Aug 4th 2006 2:51PM
@LaughingTarget,
True, but good luck sticking a ps3 disc into a ps4 with no optical drive. That was my point. Going forward would be no problem, as you said.
GameDeals.ca @ Aug 4th 2006 2:51PM
The death of disc media WILL happen, but not as soon as they are predicting. You only need to look at the music industry to see how the progression will take place. I do not buy CD's, I don't know anyone that has (to my knowledge) purchased a CD in a long time. I don't know anyone that uses a "Discman", they all have mp3 players. BUT, the retail stores are still open because there will always be the late adopters, and they're still just now learning about mp3's.
Video games (like movies/tv/magazines/etc.) will go fully digital eventually, as new generations of kids no longer have the "physical ownership" want that we grew up with. Game stores will slowly lose market share, then die one by one as the business model shifts (over the course of many years).
I'm secure in the knowledge that my business will not be around forever, and knowing that, it puts me in a better position to plan for the future. I've always said that I should get into the grocery or restaurant business, because you can't download food.
hartleyshc @ Aug 4th 2006 2:53PM
the comments about retailers not doing well and the game companies not caring is true for eb and gs.
walmart is a different beast all together.. walmart alone wouldnt allow this to happen.
epobirs @ Aug 4th 2006 3:08PM
The Wired writer seems unaware that the HD-DVD add-on is solely for movies.
This has it's advantages and disadvantages. Unless the 360/PS3/Wii generation has a extraordinarily long lifespan, there is simply no way the following generation could do without some means of accessing software sold at retail. Unless the industry is content in cutting off tens of millions of gamers in pursuit of new business models.
While many enjoy excellent broadband speeds, many others are still waiting for any broadband at all. To offer an entirely online distribution system will require the best broadband speeds to be available to nearly everyone in the developed nations to not put a severe pinch on the potential installed base of those future machines. To completely eliminate all local storage except for things like account ID, treating the WAN as a hard drive for realtime access to games, would require far more people to have amazing broadband rates than I'm inclined to believe will exist in the US by 2011 or even 2015.
Reusable storage will remain an issue. Epic style games will only continue to grow as the tools allow developers to do increasingly more complex and data intensive products. Since it is so unlikely doing everything by realtime access over broadband will be viable, local storage will be needed. A game like Final Fantasy 20 is going to need some serious caching to the local hard drive before a PS4 user can expect to get through the game reliably without major interruptions for downloading more content.
OTOH, for older games measured in mere hundreds of megabytes, an all you can eat subscription like GameTap could be the way to go. If enough of the country has access to 10-15 megabit per second download rates, a lot of publishers could see fit to go online only and expect all others to endure some lengthy cache fill periods.
For the really huge games, a media reader, be it optical disc format of the future or something entirely new , could be an accessory available to those broadband challenged unfortunates who need physical media and are willing to pay a small premium to get their games.
So, the insane collector market would still have something to look for on eBay.
#22
Why would backwards compatibility be a big problem. Isn't it the entire rationale behind Nintendo's Virtual Library? So long as the platform isn't too recent or complicated by ownership issues, BC should be quite common.
The issue of tranferring ownership of virtual property is a court battle that remains to be fought. I'd almost guarantee that somebody at the EFF is already thinking about how to frame the case.
Imports should be readily available and without a premium since there is no physical object being moved around the world. Sony doesn't object to people in the US downloading and running PSP demos and region coding is becoming increasingly less used on consoles. So long as you can deal with the language issues, why should a publisher care if you buy an untranslate game?
Region coding existed primarily to support region sales offices from having thier numbers cannibalized by the home market exports and also protect the sales of outside companies who licensed the publishing rights for their region. With online distribution and other trends, game publishers will find it much easier to operate on a global basis and enlist companies like Akamai to insure fast downloads to customers everywhere.
It will be hard on CAGs. Games may start off cheaper but the prices are less likely to drop. Retailers will no longer be faced with having to markdown unsold stock eating up shelf space. A file on a server cost nearly nothing, so there is little incentive to discount is sales satisfactory. Any price reductions will be in smaller increments until sales are up to snuff, but that will be a bit of a letdown for those of use accustomed to $5 blowouts at Circuit City.
ill trooper @ Aug 4th 2006 3:23PM
I personally side with ThunderLeg based on the 'Ice Cream Bicycles' comment.
I like the idea of downloadable content, but...
Having physical copies of your games is more valuable than you think, I took a disk of a game over to a LAN party the other month, will I be expected to sign in and download that on the spot again in the future, on to a friend's UltraXbox Mark V? Maybe, but am I the only one who's getting tired of names, passwords and accounts? I know I'm not. This shit has to cease. Let me buy my game and take it home and play it.
For example: XBox live already has all the inconvenience it needs - sign in as though it's an IM network, people can locate and track you like it's a IM network, but yet, I can't sign in on ANY XBOX like it's an IM network, I can only sign in on a machine if I brought my HARD DRIVE? Clearly they are worried about multiple people using the same account, but why? A single account can't be online with itself at the same time. So why make it inconvenient? This is a small indication of the DRM/Turnkey world where these companies want to take us. It's kind of lame if you ask me.
Baboon @ Aug 4th 2006 3:26PM
@ GameDeals.ca
Yet.
MUHAHAHAHAHAHA!
mhdz @ Aug 4th 2006 3:36PM
no discs would hurt the company, the retailers and the econamy. I used to think that downloadable games is a good idea, but now i see that it is not. I was thinking more along the lines of having many slots in the console and you would put chips in of the game. You wouldn't ever have to take a chip out unless you needed more space. Then it would be much easier than getting up and haveing to switch discs.
" The buisness that's going to take out Microsoft"
x2 @ Aug 4th 2006 3:52PM
The mention of owning a physical game collection is the same as owning a music library. I remember when I used to have CDs on my shelf. But now that I've converted them to digital, and am buying digital music, I no longer have the need, nor do I care to have physical media. It's simply eaiser to store all my music on my hard drive or iPod.
When you buy a game, you receive the media, maybe an instruction booklet, and an empty box. Many games contain tutorials or quick storylines. In the long term, doing away with the box, media, printed docs, and utilizing digital distribution could benefit publishers. They'll enjoy greater profits and cut down on piracy.
So what happens when you accidentially lose or delete the game. Well several current digital distribution methods allow you to re-download the file to your account if you already purcahsed it.
So what happens to the brick and mortar stores? They adapt. Look at music stores. Many now sell games and movies in addition to other stuff. They'll need to exploit new business models.
Currently when you purchase and download items off the internet, there's no sales tax. I've bought a couple of programs this way and have saved money. Not sure how long this one will last though.
There's the arguments that internet is not fast enough. A lot of people are thinking todays technology when thinking of tomorrow. I don't know about anyone else, but my cable modem broadband connection keeps getting quicker through upgrades from the provider. Plus Internet2 was developed to be a faster Internet. Maybe someone we'll have acccess to that. Plus, who's to say games can't be partially streamed instead of downloaded whole?
Even if you do download, is waiting for the game to download all that bad? I don't know how many times a new game has come out, and I can't find it in the store right away. Imagine not having that problem anymore.
The biggest obstacle to digital distribution is that not everyone has broadband. That's something that is going to take time.
Mr. Khan @ Aug 4th 2006 4:19PM
You think this will reduce piracy? The hacker community would LOVE this, because then, with 2 or 3 (relatively) simple emulators and a means of hacking into whatever distrubition database they are using, this would do away with Consoles itself, as long as you have the CPU/GPU power to run it.
Jim @ Aug 4th 2006 5:48PM
all good and nice
but consider this:
a) I like my physical game copy at home.
b) DRM I will not tolerate.
c) ok, let's assume that PS4 launches in 5 to 6 years from now. will EVERYBODY have a broadband connection that is capable of downloading 100 GB per game?
d) when I buy a game in a shop I get it "at once". do I have to wait several days for the download to finish?
e) what will retailers like Wal-mart, EB games, etc... do? they won't like it.
f) what about used games?
g) hackers will love that service. direct downloads to their harddrives.
h) for downloadable software I expect price cuts. no commission for retailers, no transport/packaging/distribution costs. customers should profit from less costs as well.
i) what if my HDD is "out-of-order"? will I get refund or do I have to download all content again?
j) they would have to re-invent the whole payment system - more like a subscription fee of rental games because I surely won't pay full price for a downloadable game that I can't physically "own" and I will only play for mere days.
k) sorry, I think it's just not going to happen. online downloads will become an important distribution channel. yet, many people like to go to the shop and they want a "habtic" shopping experience that no online shop can deliver.
Tiago @ Aug 4th 2006 6:07PM
many people still won't have internet in 5 years+ at least a broadband connection, some may not want to have internet.
I personally like my games in physical format with a pretty box and stuff. What I believe is that there will be a cheaper alternative for people who just want the game and don't care about having them physically.
sdfaadfafdfadf @ Aug 4th 2006 7:46PM
can anyone say XBLA
ipodfanboy @ Aug 4th 2006 10:24PM
Dont worry Illtrooper the Playstation4 will be using HVDS while xbox720 will be using 500gigabyte harddrives and the nintendos next console after wii will be using 60gigabye flashdrive. I dont know who in hell will develop a game with 1000s gigabytes on a CD probably squareenix or Konami. Well to be honest physical format games are for the casual gamer, just get up stick in turn on and play an wait for loadtimes, while as hardcore gamers just press and play boom play the game with no loadtimes. This has been the trend for the past 5 years and it started with apple and its ipod. Ever since ipod and itunes changed the world of digital downloads it was the begining of the end of the cd format and sony knows it. Ever since itunes hit 1billion songs sold cds are hitting the coffins. Now with apple having download rentals for movies, the movie format will be next for digital downloads and that will take off like itunes music service. So now you have music and movies being downloaded and what about games. Games that have gigabyte data will be next to be downloaded. However this is good but internet is still too slow to download massive games unless games are steamed. The fastest home internet is around 3-5mbps in the u.s while in japan and korea they have 100mbps internet. Hopefully by the next 3-5 years internet2 will be out. But those who are avid playstations fans and are casual gamers just hope apple dont enter the gaming arena because if they do its over for playstation and its stupid superior formats. I do feel sorry for mom and pop gamestores and i feel sorry for gamestop and ebgames both depend on software sales and they depend on used games and anything playstation. IF Digital distribution gaming takes off its over for many gaming stores. Im really happy for game downlaods and me I personally enjoy 5mbps internet. And by the way to bad blu ray is already obsolete and people are willing to pay 600 dollars to get a ps3 for that, you guys are freaking nuts.
Ben Hobbs @ Aug 5th 2006 8:19AM
We will see games on USB memory first, these little things fit in the pocket and are already upto 8Gb or so, you could keep all your games on a single keyring.
You could buy them blank and get them flashed with your game at the games shop or even better - games kiosks, way faster than downloading over the internet.
The biggest hurdles to downloadable only games is payment and time, I want to go and buy a game and play it when I get home, not choose it a week before and wait for it to download.