Note to Wii: Don't screw these five things up

Gaming Nexus outlines what they believe to be Nintendo's top five critical areas for success with corresponding probabilities of failure. From the article: "Dumb mistakes. Nintendo's made plenty of them in the past. From cringe-worthy advertising to burning bridges with developers, the gaming veteran has hit most of the metaphorical potholes. Does disaster loom? Well, that all depends on the new Nintendo, the Satoru Iwata Nintendo, and if the risks he's taking are right."

The critical areas discussed in the article are as follows:

1. Innovation: Small probability of disaster
   
2. Virtual Console: Medium probability of disaster
3. Third-party support: Small probability of disaster
4. Nintendo Wifi Connection: High probability of disaster
5. Marketing: High probability of disaster

If history has taught us anything, it's that Nintendo struggles when it comes to third-party support on a home console, so maybe at least bump that probability to either "medium" or "medium rare." Where do you think Nintendo is mostly likely to fail in the above five areas?

[Thanks, Charles]