Complete sell-out at launch, even more marketshare with ms or nintendo a very distant second.

Holy denial, Kaz.

Refusing to drop the PSP's price at this point is absolute suicide. Not only is their console going to be twice the price of Nintendo's, their handheld will, too!

PS3 will be too expensive. I think it won't sell well for the first year or so.

They HAVEN't Started production?

And Kaz is laying on some bullshit. He didn't promise 2 milltion before the end of the year, he promised 2 million at LAUNCH with an ADDITIONAL 2 million before the end of the year.

Here's the source:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4752895.stm

And here's the quote:
In order to satisfy gamers wanting a PS3 for Christmas, Sony said it planned to have two million units available at launch worldwide, with a further two million by the end of the year.


If Kaz is right, and they haven't even started production yet / only planning on 2 million total before the end of the year, then Sony better break out the KY cause they are about to take it up the a**.

And to BMWM3P...

Of COURSE they'll sell out at launch, they are cutting back number of promised units between now and Jan 1 from 4 million to 2 million. Meanwhile Nintendo has INCREASED their production of Wii by 5 million more units.

Both Microsoft and Nintendo will be available this fall when consumers walk into the store. Every Nintendo or 360 sold increases their market share.

Sony, welcome to 3rd place.

my nonfanboy prediction is that this will be a flame war.

This is bad for sony. Coming out of the gates with shipping shortages is only ok when other consoles are struggling (PS2, w/Xbox and Gamecube not out yet, and Dreamcast having issues), or nonexistant (Xbox360, with Wii and PS3 still in development). Having too-few consoles at the holiday season, with X360 and Wii easily available will be an issue.

Then again, Kaz points out that Sony aims to meet the marketshare of last generation "in the same kind of timeframe" as the PS2... meaning that they expect to dominate in several years (but given the shortages, not immediately?). That's possible.

20 Million PSPs shipped =/= units sold

Kaz - "I'd like to think that our market share will be as good -- if not better -- than what we've accomplished with the PS2 in the same kind of time frame since launch."

David Reeves (head of Sony Europe) - "The name of the game is not market share...Whether we have 40, 50, or 60 per cent market share is not that important"

http://www.engadget.com/2006/06/03/sony-not-so-concerned-with-market-share-ah-that-explains-it/

I have no prediction, but it's going to be very interesting. Im quite sure that everything will stay same. So worldwide it would be 1. PS3, 2. Xbox 360, 3. Wii

But who knows, maybe that all changes and we have 1. Xbox, 2. Wii and 3. PS3.
Oh and here a little piece of useless info: PS3 is officially written PLAYSTATION 3. All caps :|

Kaz is puting on a happy face for investors, nothing more.

If he and Sony gave a damn about gamers, (ie the ones supplying their investors with money) then at some point along their disastrous PR trail they would have said "yea, we screwed up here, here, and here--we are working on it."---I would have respected that.

Master ninja 20 million PSP's shipped doesn't mean sold. Also why are you talking about something that isn't about this story. Remember were talking about the number of PS3's that are going to be avialable at launch and what Kaz said.
So sticking to topic I say that the PS3 will be really really hard to find at launch. there isn't going to be 2 million PS3's at launch so I say this launch will be worse than the xbox 360 launch. But I think nintendo will be okay and will have a good amount at launch available to rival the 360's availablity at Christmas time.

Also of note, Kaz quashed any rumors of a PSP redesign and that UMD is just fine whether companies utilize it to deliver content or not. :/

As for predictions on this post, yes I smell the potential for flames.

Hopefully it won't be as bad as the Avatar Airbender post got.

My prediction? A very rocky launch and after that everything will depend on:

a) Sony's marketing
b) the cards MicroSoft and Nintendo decide to play.

Sony doesn't have the initiative anymore so it'll be very hard maintaining their current position. Not impossible, but not very likely to happen.

duh, over priced - but all campers would of paid 1000$ at least
and that is who is going to buy them come NOV17

the price isn't going to chnage until they stop selling out.

then the 20gb PS3 is going to cost the same as the 360s 20gb 399, and then ps3 will start to own xbox360

but its still going to take sony a long ass time to get their market share back from M$

and happy about the PSP? HA!
DS owns PSP so bad...

I think it will be the same this generation as it was last. Sony will be on top but not as great of a lead as with the PS2. Then Xbox360 or Wii will take second I dont know which though. Hopefully I will buy a Wii at launch then wait for the Ps3 to drop in price

My prediction:

Wii owns the holiday shopping season; Sony left out of stock before Christmas shopping and Wii already hugely popular capitalizes on that to sell out a vast number of units.

So Q1 2007 it's 360, Wii, then PS3

I don't predict PS3 to mkae up its market share to become the #1 console but I think it will be close behind the 360.

The Wii, however, will end up outselling both the 360 and PS3 by the end of the 2007 fiscal year but the other consoles order will depend on which HD format cathes one.

"We haven't started manufacturing yet."

That's funny. On some other topic a few Sony fanboys were trying to convince me they had already manufactured 50+ mil units. Ahh, fanboys.

"Between PlayStation, PS2 and PSP, the PSP happens to be the fastest-growing product we've ever launched. I think we cleared 20 million units worldwide within the first what, about 18 months or so. And in the US, we've already cleared 5.2 million."

I /think/? What, doesn't he know? And those numbers have me confused. If the US has only moved 5.2 mil (and from my understanding, PSP sells better over here than in Japan), then where the hell are the other 15 mil units? Somehow I doubt the UK + Japan = 15 mil units.

"Again, [there are] no adjustments on the horizon as far as PSP [pricing] goes. We're happy with the pricing, we're happy with the value proposition ... "

That's a shame, because I might have bought it at $150.

I think Sony is really gonna fall behind MS and Nintendo this holiday. They may be able to pick it back up in the next few years, but I'm doubtful. The $600 pricetag is going to lose a lot of their formerly loyal supporters.

"then the 20gb PS3 is going to cost the same as the 360s 20gb 399, and then ps3 will start to own xbox360"

You do realize that Sony won't be able to keep up with MicroSoft's production cost cuts for at least a year? PS3 is a very expensive and complex machine and they'll be taking a tremendous hit on every unit sold from the very beginning. On the other hand, MS is already negotiating lowering the production costs of Xbox 360 so if PS3 starts taking up too much market share, the price will easily go down. Thanks to their megalomaniac ambition, Sony will have to play catch up in that area.

my prediction: by Q1 2007
1.PS3 2.Wii 3.360

ps3 is first becuase of the ps2s success
wii is second becuase of the innovation and DS's success
360 is third becuase of no support in japan and only fps games

thats my (non-fanboy) prediction so if you dont like it kiss my shiny metal ass

Will will obviously sell more than PS3 this holiday season. After 3rd parties see the sales figures, they will probably reconsider who to support. That doesn't necessarily mean less support for the PS3, but it may mean equal support for all three consoles.

Even though I dont like Sony, they have the brand name. All my friends wants a Ps3, everyone at my school talks about the PS3. If people are talking about games they say things like " Oh the PS3 will have 10 times better graphics than Xbox 360." Like I said I will eventually own a PS3 like I eventually got a PS2 but i think I will be happy with Xbox 360 and Wii for now. Sony will most likely be selling to the uneducated fans that only know the "Sony" brand name.

Both Sony and Nintendo will sell every unit they can put out onto the shelves. Nintendo will probably produce more than a 3:1 edge over Sony if not more. I wouldn't be shocked to see the PS3 pushed to next year in US/UK. I don't think it'll happen..but I won't be shocked of it does.

The real question is how much developer mindshare can Nintendo steal?

Three months from launch? But 2007 is in FOUR months!

Nintendo and Sony sell out at launch and through the holidays. MS nearly sells out, too.

Total Sales by Jan 2007
Microsoft XBOX360 - 9.5 million
Nintendo Wii - 6 million
Sony PlayStation 3 - 2.5 million

'Somehow I doubt the UK + Japan = 15 mil units.'

The PSP is the second fastest selling system in Japan,
selling double what the PS2 sells.

And are you even counting the rest of Euroupe?

Personally, I plan to buy every PS3 I can get my hands on. The way things are shaping up, ebay is going to be very busy and profitable around December.

Is that the best you can do Kaz?

Another Sony Intreview another chance of promise being wipped out from under the Sony fans feet.

Now, I look at specs deets and games before buying a console.
IMHO, I can see the PS3 being dead 3rd in the first or second year of launch. Then, maybe they'll pick up.

Then again, PS3 could suck all the way through the 7th generation of gaming.

Wii and 360 look just about the same. The Wii makes up for what it lacks w/ its controller, and that seems fun. It also picks up with what it lacks with the pricing.

I also thing 360 pricing is just in the middle. It's got awesome as hell games coming out, and the graphics are perfect. It's in the middle, and usually in the middle is what everyone likes.

PS3 games- I needed a bag to vomit it was so horrible.
Wii games- So fun-looking i needed a bag to vomit
360 games- So beutiful, so precious, I vomited.

I'm looking forward to Dead Rising, Halo 3, Gears of War, Splinter Cell Double Agent, and so many more, I think my head popped off.

Anyway, you can see that I'm going with the 360(I need more time to play these games. Hey, you can't fire me, I QUIT!), then the Wii(Sorry, didn't mean to hit you in the face =)), then the PS3(LET'S GET READY TO... NOT... Rumble...)

My prediction:

1.Wii the hype for that thing is incredible, and it has completely different games on it.

2.XBOX 360 the price on it is not much more than what people are used to paying. It has good brand recognition (except in japan but who cares I'm talking US). The games are what good old Americans want, action and racing.

3.PS3 is not going to get near the sales the PS2 did because it's so expencive. You can rant and rave about value all you want, and you'd be right, but at the end of the day $500 - $600 is way to much for someone to pay for 0 to little improvement over 360 games and Metal Gear/Final Fantasy.

No doubt in my mind 5 years down the road Sony will again lead the market. With a few price drops and Hi-Def cathching up PS3 will appeal to more people. All the extra features will be incentives for consumers to want to buy a PS3.

I couldn't care less about the bad press for PS3 since E3. I believe id is going to support PS3 now despite John Carmack was really not impressed on developing on game consoles.

The reality is that PS3 will be a "entertainment platform" for different people to put their products on there. Nobody is going to turn away from develpoing or using a platform that has so much market potential.

Here's my favorite part of the interview:

Everything's pretty much on track. I just came back from Las Vegas where we we're still actually having our internal sales and merchandisers gather for basically four or five days of intense meetings. Everything from retail strategy to talking about the interactives, and [b]how you can reboot it if your power goes out[/b], so everything from nuts to bolts all the way up to the retail strategy.

Does it scare anyone that this is even an issue?

Soney Execs-
"Hey, that Nintendo controller looks awesome"
"duuuude! I've got the greatest most original idea EVER!"
"What?"
"Let's take the PS2 controller, and like, put the motion sensore thingy in there!"
"That's not original..."
"But removing Rumble is!"
"Nice...."


360 Execs-
"We have execs?"
"Where is everyone?"
"Working on Vista."

Wii Execs-
"Video gaming is a hard business..."
"Should we go back to making cards?"
"..."
"Who's up for Mario?"
"MEE!!!"

The only guy that's even close to being right on these comments so far is # 18...DaTruth !! I guarantee that what he said earlier is almost exactly right. I myself believe that this time around, finally, Nintendo will actually sell some units. Enough units to actually come in 2nd this time around, making xbox last. PS3 is obviously gonna sell more this holiday season !! haha Have fun responding to this fanboys.

PS3 is going last this round.

my prediction, Wii owning ps3 and 360 in the end just like DS is owning psp. wii just has way too many games, and more importantly, way too many FUN games for a gamer to pass up. Smash bros brawl is more highly anticipated than HALO 3! HAHAHAHAHAHA

@Pc

lol, I was going to rant about your post until i realized you were joking. well done :)

How can it sell more this holiday season when you won't be able to actually find one this holiday season...good observation, little buddy.

he's joking? I must not get his humor..

Sorry Sony, I'm jumping off your boat for this round. Maybe in a couple of years when price drops to $250. Who else in here jumpin' ship?

I will agree with everyone else, the price is through the roof and the launch looks pretty bad. On top of all the bad press Sony is making for itself, it has the Nintendo Wii behemoth casting a great big shadow over the PS3 launch. Nintendo looks like they are going to be able to kick some but with a system that is(rumored) to be around 200$, that's about a 3rd of the PS3 price tag.

I mean the whole PS3 thing isn't bad, MGS4 is coming out and...maybe the future does look a little bleak. I am sure that Sony can get the systems out to consumers, but with a lot of ad space already bought by Microsoft for Gears and Nintendo has all their ad space in order for the Wii. Sony is going to have a hard time pushing out units.

I don't understand the post's picture, can someone clue me in.

Get out the independent marketers research. It should six million psp unsold worldwide. Reason they are denoucing a price cut is because each unit at retailer they have to do a refund. That would be hellishly expensive.

The DS has sold over 20 million units. PSP software sales are in the toilet same with movies. If Sony didn't pay retailers you wouldn't be seeing any shelf space for umd movies or psp games.

The DS outsells the PSP by a six to one or more margin each week. It's starting to match that ratio in America and Europe. Look at the software charts on a week to basis it's becoming filled with DS titles.

The PSP is dirt cheap in Japan. Heck you can often find stores having sales where the psp is just nine dollars more then the DS lite.

2006 E3 Press conferance the moment when the Sony PR machine started to dig it's grave. That is what the pic is refering to.

To 38:

Sure... it was from the Sony E3 Pre-show press conference. There were other memorable moments too. But, the joke is pretty much stale right about now anyway. It has been 3 months after all.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=eaBUeINW_3s

As for this interview, I sincerly hope Kaz just misspoke when he said 2 million units worldwide by the end of the year. I really hope so...

@tony

He'd have to be joking. No one could possibly write that and believe it ;)

@ 33 brian

I hope your right...

@ 31 Pc

I hope he's right...

"... I'd like to think that our market share will be as good -- if not better -- than what we've accomplished with the PS2 in the same kind of time frame since launch."

NO, HE DIDN'T SAY THAT!!!.. DID HE??? ... REALLY???

With ONLY 2 million consoles spread between Japan, US, Europe???

A Console 50% more expensive than it's direct competition???

This PS3 thing will be launching against software like Gears of War which graphically beats ANYTHING Sony Can offer.

This denial disease is spreading from Sony Fanboys to Kaz. Or is it the other round.

Oh Sony, why did you go the path of SNK? Expensive system? Check. Wavering handheld? Check. Plus the games are rumored to be something between $60-$100. 60 may be fit with the 360 prices, but $100, even $80, is suicide. I'd expect the controller to be the same price as the PS2, but who knows? In fact, the furture of Sony as a major gaming company may not be certain in the coming decade.

Not to mention that they haven't started manufaturing PS3s yet. And I happen to remember when they said that, Kamalot, thanks for pointing that out.

And yet the PS3 taunts those with tight wallets with games like MGS4 and Assasin's Creed, both of which look absolutely fantastic. Of course, those with tight wallets probably don't own HD TVs.

I predict I'm getting one at launch for sure...+ ext.warranty + one game [RESISTANCE:FALL OF MAN].My 360+new PS3=MORE GAMES! A-a-a-r-r-r!

I'm a Nintendo fanboy I'll admit immediately, but I still think that Sony is doing a surprisingly good job. Yes, the $600 price tag is a completely different direction than they went with the PS2, and in the short term they can't even begin to hope for the same market share. But they are going almost completely experimental technology with the PS3. $600 is a steal considering most Blu-Ray players are $1000 and don't have Cell processors in them.

In the long run, MS is probably going to find that they hit their boundary a lot sooner than Sony. High definition graphics are going to eventually want high definition textures, which are hard to deliver with only 2-4GB of storage media. And don't try and retort back that they are fixing that with the HD-DVD drive, everyone knows they don't plan to make games for it. A lot of people are saying "Why would I care if it has a Blu-Ray player, I don't want to play Blu-Ray disks," but you do, because of the 15GB storage capacity.

Sony will easily sell out at launch(not saying much) but more importantly, I think they will continue to garner more and more support as 360 hits it's computing limits and PS3 completely outstrips the 360's performance.

And that's my 2c