Xbox 360 joins HD DVD tour
by Ross Miller 
{ Aug 23rd 2006 at 1:25PM }
Here are the tour dates:
- September 14 - 17: Denver Colorado Convention Center
- September 22 - 24: Dallas Plano Balloon Fest (Texas)
- September 29 - October 1: Minneapolis, MN
- October 5 - 6: Chicago, IL
- October 10 - 15: New York, NY
- October 20 - 22: Washington, D.C.
- October 26 - 28: Philadelphia, PA
- November 2 - 4: Richmond, VA
- November 15 - 16: Los Angeles, CA
- November 24 - 28: Seattle, WA
- December 6 - 10: San Francisco, CA
See Also:
Will Resistance: FoM justify the PS3 pricetag?
MS shows off 360 external HD DVD drive
[Thanks, laserboyjc]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
footlong! @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:29PM
why is this article filed under Sony 'PLAYSTATION 3'
Fenris @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:32PM
Nice. A little love for Colorado, as much as I dislike the whole next generation format wars, it still might be fun to look at the new toys.
Ross Miller @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:32PM
Because -- and it's my fault for not being explicit about it in the post -- one of the big talking points between Sony and MS has been the blu-ray / HD DVD rivalry
Hot Dog Of Doom @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:38PM
Does anyone know where to find out at what specific place the store, store is gonna be?
hohoho @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:44PM
if ms truly loves the hd dvd, they should put out a 360 sku with the built-in hd-dvd. The current packs adding the power brick, how could any 360 fanboys claming it's a small pretty console.
Rask @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:47PM
Hmm. A 500$ difference and the HD-DVD only outsold Blu-Ray by 33%?
Doesn't bode well for HD-DVD, especially once Sony really starts marketing the technology post PS3 launch.
Phranctoast @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:51PM
looks like lotr on hd dvd.. hopefully it comes to blu ray as well.
ihya @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:51PM
Aye, with Blu ray being so much more expensive, interesting they are only outselling by 33%
Still it is early days, be interesting after the PS3 and the HD DVD ad on launches to see how the landscape looks
vaylen @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:52PM
"In other news, the HD DVD players outsold Sony-backed Blu-ray players by 33% during their respective launch windows, according to NPD."
Yeah, they have sold 20,000 players vs. 15,000 for Sony. And on November 15 that number will be more like 25,000 for HD-DVD and 400,000 for Sony. And by the end of the year it will be more like 30,000 for HD-DVD and 2,000,000 for Sony. HD-DVD will die a quick death by early next year.
LordMinogue @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:52PM
HD DVD sales accounted for .4% of all player sales...
So if sales double in precent every year it will be seven years before HD DVD player sales eclipse DVD player sales.
Lagomorpho @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:54PM
Is that the HD-DVD add on sitting next to the 360? If so, holy crap! That thing is tiny!
charlie @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:55PM
"Yeah, they have sold 20,000 players vs. 15,000 for Sony. And on November 15 that number will be more like 25,000 for HD-DVD and 400,000 for Sony. And by the end of the year it will be more like 30,000 for HD-DVD and 2,000,000 for Sony. HD-DVD will die a quick death by early next year."
As much as that is an exaggeration, I'm afraid that I will have to agree. A 33% over the competition isn't really much nowadays... especially with consumer electronics.
Rask @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:55PM
Vaylen -
Sold PS3's don't really offer a ringing endorsment for Blu-Ray.
Fact 1 - Blu-Ray is useless to people without HDTV's
Fact 2 - Not everyone with an HDTV is into gaming or next-gen consoles
Fact 3 - The HD-DVD Add-on from Microsoft is but a minor investment for an existing 360 owner to get the functionality.
The format war is far from over.
Robotic House Plant @ Aug 23rd 2006 1:59PM
It's not surprising HD DVD players outsold Blu-Ray players. Blu-Ray players are twice the cost. Also without the PS3, Blu-Ray movies do not stand a change at adaoption.
Izuna Drop @ Aug 23rd 2006 2:03PM
@ #8 If what you say is true, and they've sold 20,000 and 15,000 respectively then all it proves is that people are not readily adopting either format. If the Xbox 360 add-on comes out at a lower price, which would seem a logical move, then that may have the same effect as the PS3's built in Blu-Ray player.
To stick to the topic at hand, if Microsoft's aim is to show the 360 as an HD-DVD player, then I think that is an appropriate venue.
Izuna Drop @ Aug 23rd 2006 2:03PM
I meant @ #9
Agent MOO @ Aug 23rd 2006 2:07PM
HD DVD tour? Why would you go to an event that boils down to walking through the TV aisle in Circuit City? I'm not sold on the whole concept of "next gen" dvd, current gen is perfect as-is.
http://agentmoo.com
Duscrom @ Aug 23rd 2006 2:23PM
I agree Agent... Both will be dead by next year. But what's interesting is that comparison isn't current. that's Launch window. So... It's either lower or higher either way. And looking a the two formats in my local best buy.. The difference between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD is HD DVD has price and video quality, and Blu ray has some big titles.
But.. DVD has the true selection. Blu Ray/HD DVD are going the way of SA-CD/DVD Audio.
LaughingTarget @ Aug 23rd 2006 2:26PM
From what I've seen in my somewhat limited research, 10,000 is all the HD-DVD players sold, then neither format is doing all that well. 1997, the launch of the DVD player in the US, saw sales of 349,000 units.
This really shows that neither format is really taking off. The difference between 1997 and now is a larger population and more relative income to afford the $500 HD-DVD units. DVD players launched around that price in 1997, so the $500 now is relatively much cheaper than $500 in 1997. The lack of a clear winner will end up ruining both formats.
This format "war" will end up being a war of who dies last. As it stands, BluRay is in a better position to die before HD-DVD does. The winner gets to say they killed off the other before it goes under because no one is switching over from DVD.
dood... @ Aug 23rd 2006 2:34PM
Even if 20% of XBOX 360 installed base (supposedly 10 million by end of year) picks the HD Dvd player because they have a hd tv, then the that might equal Sony's end of the year install base of users with both a PS3 and hd tv. (Sony expects to sell 4 million by years end, but how many of those people will also have a hd tv?)
As for the tour? People will partake in the activities when it hits their town. Perfect timing for the holidays if you ask me, because it puts the brands and product to the forfront of consumers minds.
Any thoughts?
Andy S. @ Aug 23rd 2006 2:41PM
Rask, while a sold PS3 is not an endorsement of Blu-ray, it *is* a Blu-ray player in a person's home, which makes them a potential customer for movies on Blu-ray. Like it or not, after the launch of the PS3, Blu-ray players will have a larger installed user base than HD-DVD will.
A person in a household that has a PS3 and no HD-DVD player is infinitely more likely to buy a movie on Blu-ray than one on HD-DVD, and that's what matters to the bean-counters. And when it comes to studios deciding which formats to release their movies in, the bean-counters factor in heavily.
That said, isn't it odd to see Microsoft go from denying that it would support either HD media format to being part of the HD-DVD tour? It's almost as if they're deathly afraid of Blu-ray becoming the HD media standard...
Enzo @ Aug 23rd 2006 2:51PM
"It's almost as if they're deathly afraid of Blu-ray becoming the HD media standard..."
I would be too, if Sony is involved. Any of Sony's pet formats becoming a standard is bad news for consumers. Thankfully they've failed everytime so far. Let's hope the trend continues.
Rask @ Aug 23rd 2006 2:54PM
20 - If Blu-Ray were to eventually win the format War, it would be as easy for Microsoft to license the tech from Sony, slap it in an enclosure, stamp XBox 360 and sell that.
That's the good thing about not having something forced on you. Question though, could Sony decide to withhold from licensing Blu-Ray tech to Microsoft?
audioout @ Aug 23rd 2006 3:01PM
"A person in a household that has a PS3 and no HD-DVD player is infinitely more likely to buy a movie on Blu-ray than one on HD-DVD, and that's what matters to the bean-counters. And when it comes to studios deciding which formats to release their movies in, the bean-counters factor in heavily."
Whoa, whoa. I don't know pricing exactly yet but I can probably bet I can get a hd-dvd drive and an Xbox360 at the price of a PS3. Besides that the Xbox360 ALREADY has a user base that will most likely grow to all be users of hd-dvd, so why do you think the release of PS3 will be any real factor at all?
socrates @ Aug 23rd 2006 3:09PM
Dood - good observation. I think that PS3 users are more likely than the average 360 user (somewhat) and Wii users (vastly) to own a HD tv.
Aside from the PS3 integration, the other big (really big) advantage BluRay has is the greater amount of exlusive media. Sony manages to own a lot in terms of movies, and since all of those films will never EVER come out on HD-DVD....that's a comepelling reason.
About the switch over from DVD....Hd players aren't being bought in droves, mainly because, as most people are saying, folks don't feel the need for a change quite yet. But that need is coming in the next few years...the launch of BR and HDDVD now has to do with the fact that the early bird will definately get the worm as far as the next optical disc generation war. Although, the Holographic Versatile Disc will blow both out of the water!...In many years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc
digital404 @ Aug 23rd 2006 3:10PM
completely off topic, but what kind of chairs are those. they seem nice and i would like a smaller alternative to some expensive bean bag chair.
Andy S. @ Aug 23rd 2006 3:18PM
Thing is, MS wouldn't *want* to license Blu-ray, because every device they sell that contains it would be providing income to Sony. MS has made too much money screwing other companies with licensing schemes to fall for that trick themselves.
As for Sony being able to refuse to license the tech to MS... I think that they probably can, but that doing so would ultimately get them pulled into court for monopolistic behavior.
Joe @ Aug 23rd 2006 3:32PM
"Both will be dead by next year"
"...current gen is perfect as-is"
You've got to be kidding me. I take it Hi-Def is just a passing fad?! Pfffft. You're dreaming and you obviously need to get out more and do some research.
Blu-ray's compression is ridiculously huge, so it doesn't matter if they hold more space when much more space is wasted on more proprietary garbage media from Sony (it's called research, fanboys). Next year, they'll be giving away UMD movies in boxes of Frankenberries and people will still swear that Blu-Ray actually stands a chance at becoming Sony's FIRST media to actually stick to the marketplace. Hasn't happened before it won't happen now. You'll have some nice Blu-Ray movies to play on your overpriced PS3s the same way PSP users have a few UMDs to choose from but as far as a movie medium standard, better get used to HD DVDs. They look better and the players are cheaper.
gman @ Aug 23rd 2006 3:46PM
The only reason Blu-ray is selling at all is because of the mindless drones of people who simply follow random ads and gossip spread by sony. HD-DVDs look better, cost less, and have hybrid HD/SD discs so you don't have to worry about bringing a movie to your friend's place who only has a standard dvd player. As soon as I get an HDTV I'll definitely side with HDDVD...though this will probably be 2 or 3 years away because honestly...the world doesn't yet need another format. DVD is still fine, it's not like the VHS to DVD switch...this is just a forced upgrade
Phranctoast @ Aug 23rd 2006 3:53PM
yeah. they'll look better until BR uses dual layers, or BR uses a different compression technique. then they will look the same. The ps3 with its install base will cary BR. Then you need to realize that BR has more studio support.to think that HD Dvd is going to win the format war is just crazy.
If you want to have the beta/vhs analogy between BR and HD DVD, you can say that HD DVD is beta.
beta had only sony making product. it appears the same with toshiba. beta had little studio support. the only exclusive studio for hddvd is univeral. The only difference is technically beta was better then vhs, and technially blu ray is better then hddvd.
Canadian Geese @ Aug 23rd 2006 4:13PM
Blu-Ray = mpeg2/mpeg4
HD-DVD = mpeg4
winner = HDDVD
Blu-Ray = larger capacity possibility
HD-DVD = larger capacity currently
winner = even (since neither will be limited due to capacity when it comes to movies)
Blu-Ray = slower read
HD-DVD = faster read
winner = HD-DVD
Blu-Ray = not including DVD burns on the same disk
HD-DVD = including DVD burns on the same disk
winner = HD-DVD
Blu-Ray = doesn't look as good
HD-DVD = looks better
winner = HD-DVD
Blu-Ray = name doesn't sound like next-gen movie standard
HD-DVD = name sounds like next-gen movie standard
winner = HD-DVD
Blu-Ray = more expensive
HD-DVD = cheaper
winner = HD-DVD
Blu-Ray = number of movie studios supported is greater
HD-DVD = number of movie studios supported is less
winner = Blu-Ray
Blu-Ray = quality of movies available is less
HD-DVD = quality of movies available is greater
winner = HD-DVD
Blu-Ray = discs are easier to scratch/break
HD-DVD = discs are harder to scratch/break
winner = HD-DVD
Blu-Ray = not main SKU of China
HD-DVD = main SKU of China
winner = HD-DVD
Blu-Ray = last released
HD-DVD = first released
winner = HD-DVD
Blu-Ray = in all PS3's
HD-DVD = in 360's of those who want high def movies
winner = Blu-Ray (but could go either way over time)
Blu-Ray = requires complete regutting of current DVD manufacturing facilities
HD-DVD = requires replacement of burning laser only in current DVD manufacturing facilities
winner = HD-DVD
Blu-Ray = offered by Sony who has never successfully created a media standard
HD-DVD = not made by Sony
winner = HD-DVD
Blu-Ray = still having problems with production
HD-DVD = not having problems with production
winner = HD-DVD
Totals:
HD-DVD = 13
Blu-Ray = 2
But let's wait and see what happens. A bunch of Sony fanboys are predicting a Blu-Ray win and fanboys are always right, aren't they?
KR @ Aug 23rd 2006 4:46PM
I agree with pretty much all Captain Geese's comparisons, but at the same time I think the PS3 is still much more powerful as a name brand and product than most of us disenchanted "hardcores" are willing to admit. It might be enough to hand it the advantage, even if it takes a while.
...when can I get a player that plays both formats?
JJ @ Aug 23rd 2006 4:50PM
a CG... last i checked Blu Ray discs are more durable than HDDVD due to the exclusive Coatins they have on their disks.
and a lot of your poitns... were pretty fanboyish. Sony has had a hand it lots of successful media...like DVD's and you do realize Sony isn't the ONLY people backing Bluray right? They're part of a larger coalition.
and what does quality of movies stand for? that could be anything.
and HDDVD has been out a whole 3 months+ longer than Bluray so of course they'll currently have more discs out, but what matters in long run is studio backing.. the more studios you have behind your format.. the more movies and press you get.
just because someone likes blu ray doesn't make them Sony Fanboys.. maybe their movie buffs that see more of the movies they enjoy are going to be put on that format. I mean jeez BluRay players only came out a month ago. Its a shame they're not competing in sheer number of titles as 3x older HDDVD technology. and they both read normal DVD's so the whole HDDVD/DVD hybrid doesn't even really stack up much i dont think. Since if you have either or format, chances are you're either gonna buy bluray or HDDVD. If you choose to upgrade in the future to one or the other, its not like you magically saved money or anything.
broseph @ Aug 23rd 2006 4:53PM
How many DVD's can I get for the price of the HD-DVD add-on? Exactly. No thanks.
Sponge @ Aug 23rd 2006 4:56PM
OK EVERYONE!!! Just because everyone who buys a PS3 will have a Blu-ray player, it can still lose the war if NONE OF THEM BUY MOVIES FOR THEIR GAME CONSOLE!!!
Anthony @ Aug 23rd 2006 5:19PM
LaughingTarget,
Or it is the fact that there is very limited commercial advertising for the new formats. Face it, I would bet 75% of DVD player owners are above 30.
And out of all them maybe about 1% visits blogs, websites that daily cover the new tech.
And the reason DVD sold so high was due to the fact that is was a totally different thing. It was the fact that you could have a movie that was 1/25th of the size of a VHS.
Adults and non tech savy kids will look at HD DVD and Bluray and see nothing different. To them it looks exactly the same. Same type of storage look, and all of the new players look like DVD players that you can get for $30.00.
Blueray and HD DVD will fail compared to DVD on every aspect. Honestly, the only way BluRay will be known by the younger non tech crowd will be because of the PS3.
Anthony @ Aug 23rd 2006 5:27PM
I actually want to correct my last line.
BluRay and HD DVD will fail in every aspect the DVD format did for at least the first year and a half.
And until there is a pice drop:p
Malte @ Aug 23rd 2006 5:52PM
What's up with those controllers, they look like white Dukes with two analog sticks on the left.
MarxMarvelous37 @ Aug 23rd 2006 6:05PM
@CG: "Blu-Ray = mpeg2/mpeg4, HD-DVD = mpeg4, winner = HDDVD"
This is actually a more complex equation. The fact is that both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD standards support 3 codecs: MPEG-2, AVC (MPEG-4 Variant), and VC-1 (WMV9 variant). Most agree that VC-1 is the best codec in terms of compression and quality, followed by AVC then MPEG-2. In that respect, they are equal.
However, so far all BR movies have opted to use MPEG-2, while (almost) all HD-DVD titles have used VC-1. This is what has caused the "better picture quality" for HD-DVD that you listed below. It is theoretically possible though that BR movies will wake up and start using VC-1, even though it negates a lot of their argument in terms of capacity (assuming BD50 starts becoming realistic to manufacture).
Then again, given that VC-1 is Microsoft technology, Sony may pressure BR studios to never use it.
Anyhow your conclusion was correct - advantage HD-DVD at least at this point.
razer @ Aug 23rd 2006 6:16PM
If Sony has so much power with their line-up of movies and studio power then why did UMD die as hard as it did? Just because people could buy Spider-Man on UMD did not push the sale of UMD tech. HD-DVD has the better brand recognition and from what I hear upcoming HD-DVD's will be 2 sided, Side A in HD-DVD and Side B in regular DVD format. This will mean people can play their DVD movies now and then when they decide to go HD-DVD they will not have to repurchase their media. (Source Major Nelsons HD-DVD Interview)
MarxMarvelous37 @ Aug 23rd 2006 6:19PM
@JJ: "last i checked Blu Ray discs are more durable than HDDVD due to the exclusive Coatins they have on their disks."
I don't think this has really been settled one way or the other. The only facts that we know for sure is that Blu-Ray places the data much close to the surface of the disc, which makes it more inherently fragile. However, there have also been reports of the "Durabis" coating which fix this. However, it hasn't been determined that all BR discs need to have this coating (adds to the cost).
"and what does quality of movies stand for? that could be anything."
Check out the lists of HD-DVD releases vs BR on wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_HD_DVD_releases
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Blu-ray_releases
It's pretty obvious which has better quality titles at this point.
"I mean jeez BluRay players only came out a month ago."
Close, but the Samsung BR player came out 2 months ago.
"they both read normal DVD's so the whole HDDVD/DVD hybrid doesn't even really stack up much i dont think."
That's true, but the point made here is that you can buy discs that play on both HD-DVD as well as older DVD players. This is not possible on BR (as of yet, likely never). This is a selling point who have several players around the house - maybe just upgraded to HD-DVD in the home theater. In this scenario, they would still be able to play their discs on the older players until they are fully upgraded.
Robotic House Plant @ Aug 23rd 2006 6:41PM
CG you missed player launch speed (time having to wait before you can watch a movie), menu options/navigation speed, and extra content available on the new formats.
As far as the comment regarding Sony's involvement in DVD, Sony and Philips were developing a competing format at the time (MMCD), which they dropped in favor of Toshiba's Super Density format. Sony and Philips then added pit geometry for push-pull tracking. And Philips added EFMPlus. This compromise for a single standard was led by IBM's president Lou Gerstner. Otherwise we would have have TWO formats for DVD. The thought at the time was, we didn't want another VHS vs Betamax. Years later, we have another VHS vs Betamax.
vaylen @ Aug 23rd 2006 6:46PM
@CanadianGeese
Blu-Ray = mpeg2/mpeg4
HD-DVD = mpeg4
winner = HDDVD
Uhh, the last time I checked, the ability to encode data in either of 2 formats does not make something inferior to something that only allows you to encode in one. Considering the power drain that decoding mpeg4 costs compared to mpeg2, the Blu-Ray Consortium was smart to include both options
winner = BluRay
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = larger capacity possibility
HD-DVD = larger capacity currently
winner = even (since neither will be limited due to capacity when it comes to movies)
Again, I don't know where you get your information, but Blu-Ray has a higher capacity NOW. And once studios are willing to put the time in, they will be making Blu-Ray movies with a low enough compression to use up 50GB. The eventual 200GB of the Blu-Ray standard notwithstanding, this category isn't even close.
Winner = Blu-Ray
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = slower read
HD-DVD = faster read
winner = HD-DVD
Not sure why this matters since the 360 will only use the HD-DVD as a movie player and ALL movies play back at 1x speed (you do watch them at normal speed, don't you?) In the end, both formats will probably wind up with about the same data rate since that's just a form-factor issue and plastic only spins so fast
winner = tie
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = not including DVD burns on the same disk
HD-DVD = including DVD burns on the same disk
winner = HD-DVD
Once again, I'm not sure where you get your information, but they have already demonstrated Blu-Ray discs with DVD readable content on them. Of course, in the end this is a very stopgap feature, since once people decide they'd like to see movies like Spiderman in high-def, the'll get a Blu-Ray player to play high-def content AS WELL as their entire DVD collection.
winner = tie, but in the end this doesn't matter that much
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = doesn't look as good
HD-DVD = looks better
winner = HD-DVD
For now that seems to be true, however I don't think any of the DVD's I got when they were first released look very good. High-Def compression is in its infancy. In the end, Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are just storage (like comparing a 50GB Seagate to a 30GB Western Digital). Garbage in, garbage out, and when mastering houses start making good compressions of movies they are going to put on a Blu-Ray, HD-DVD eventually won't be able to keep up due to their limited storage (30GB ceiling vs. Blu-Ray's 200GB ceiling)
Winner = Blu-Ray
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = name doesn't sound like next-gen movie standard
HD-DVD = name sounds like next-gen movie standard
winner = HD-DVD
Totally subjective... Most people I talk to about discs that will look higher-res like the fact that a blue laser can read data that is closer together (marketing guys love to have this stuff to sell things), but most of them think HD-DVD uses the same technology as DVD and that Blu-Ray uses the new blue lasers. So there you go, you say "to-may-to"... I always thought having "V.D." in your name wasn't a hot idea... but it just shows people don't base their choice on name.
winner = none
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = more expensive
HD-DVD = cheaper
winner = HD-DVD
Actaully if you don't own a xbox 360, getting a Blu-Ray player will be cheaper. You spend $499 and you've got one. If you want a HD-DVD you either have to pay the $200 (estimated) and another $399 for a xbox 360 or you buy a HD-DVD standalone for even more.
Winner = Blu-Ray
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = number of movie studios supported is greater
HD-DVD = number of movie studios supported is less
winner = Blu-Ray
Wow! You got one right! And considering Universal will come around a lot sooner than Sony will, I'd say you will be watching King Kong on a Blu-Ray long before you'll be watching Spiderman on an HD-DVD unit.
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = quality of movies available is less
HD-DVD = quality of movies available is greater
winner = HD-DVD
It's so early that this being a reason to buy one over the other is really short-sighted.... not the kind of trait someone forward-looking enough to buy a HD movie format is going to be swayed by. But I'll concdede that RIGHT NOW this is true, even though it's the most likely category here to change sides.
winner = TBD
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = discs are easier to scratch/break
HD-DVD = discs are harder to scratch/break
winner = HD-DVD
Uhhhh. Not! As a matter of fact, because HD-DVD is using the older DVD manufacturing process, it limits them to the DVD's weaknesses (I have returned a dozen movies to NetFlix because they are scratched too badly to play), while Blu-Ray will be using Durabis technology (from Wikipaedia) "TDK also announced a way to remedy the problem in January 2004 with the introduction of a clear polymer coating that gives Blu-ray Discs substantial scratch resistance. The coating was developed by TDK Corporation and is called 'Durabis'. It allows BDs to be cleaned safely with only a tissue. The coating is said to successfully resist 'wire-wool scrubbing'."
Winner = Blu-Ray
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = not main SKU of China
HD-DVD = main SKU of China
winner = HD-DVD
Well, I guess we know which format will lead the world in pirated movies... Studios LOVE that!
Winner = can't have a winner for something that doesn't matter
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = last released
HD-DVD = first released
winner = HD-DVD
Yes, HD-DVD was first to market... so if THAT was the contest that mattered, congratulations, HD-DVD... "Hey, Blu-Ray Consortium, did you notice HD-DVD was able to come to the market a whole month before you did?" (in the words of Shooter McGavin: "No... I was too busy WINNING!")
Winner = meaningless category
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = in all PS3's
HD-DVD = in 360's of those who want high def movies
winner = Blu-Ray (but could go either way over time)
Even if the 360 manages to stay even with the PS3 over the next 5 years (which would require a hell of an effort on their part since they are conceding the 20% share of the Japanese market by default), Peripherals are lucky to be bought by 20% of the installed user base. EVERY PS3 owner will have a Blu-Ray.
Winner = Blu-Ray (and this WON'T change)
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = requires complete regutting of current DVD manufacturing facilities
HD-DVD = requires replacement of burning laser only in current DVD manufacturing facilities
winner = HD-DVD
Congrats, you just explained why CD-Video was able to beat out DVD video... Oh, what? Really? You mean the factories managed to re-tool and make DVD's and still beat out CD-Video? Well, I'll be damned!
Winner = Considering the deep pockets of the few studios who master discs, this is not really a category which matters in the long run
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = offered by Sony who has never successfully created a media standard
HD-DVD = not made by Sony
winner = HD-DVD
Well, if by "Sony" you mean Apple, HP, Dell, Hitachi, LG, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, TDK and Thompson... That's why it's a "consortium" (you know, the sort of thing that Sony WASN'T a part of in their UMD format). As for "Sony has never created a media standard".. Well if you look it up, in the 1970's Sony and Philips created a little thing called the COMPACT DISC. I seem to remember it doing pretty well, but maybe they don't have them in your neck of the woods.
Winner = meaningless category
------------------------------------------------
Blu-Ray = still having problems with production
HD-DVD = not having problems with production
winner = HD-DVD
On November 17 we will see how many "problems" there were in the production of Blu-Ray. Your astute and well-substantiated claims notwithstanding
winner = TBD
Totals:
Blu-Ray = 6
HD-DVD = 1
socrates @ Aug 23rd 2006 7:23PM
I think vaylen goes a *bit* too far in his response to CanadianGeese. Here's the areas where I'd disagree somewhat:
-HD does currently have a bigger capacity, since the high capacity dual layer BR discs aren't being made yet due to expense. Once they come down in cost though, you will see much higher capacity ceilings with BR, and capacity is only going to become an important issue as time goes on (when storing HD TV shows becomes common). Thus when it really counts, BR will be bigger, so I would give an edge to them in this category, but currently HD is larger for practical purposes.
Transfer speed: It isn't just about movies. Things are more complex than the 1x factor. From
http://www.cdfreaks.com/article/186/4
"Here is another advantage for Blu-ray resulting from the NA/Wavelength combination. Since this combination also affects the data density, Blu-ray requires a much lower rotation speed of the disc to reach the specified transfer rate of 36Mbps. A constant rotation speed of 10.000 RPM, which is the current upper limit for optical drives, will result in 12x BD but only 9x HD-DVD. This means that a HD-DVD must rotate faster to reach the same transfer rates.
Something similar applies to the BD-ROM format, compared to current DVDs, Blu-ray provides a five times higher data rate while only doubling the rotation speed of current DVD-ROMs."
Hybrid discs -
I don't know how big of an issue this is going to be. People having different types of players (some still DVD) might cause a small market for hybrid discs, but I don't think it will be huge. But even if it is, even though it isn't being done yet, BR *can* do the same - and on a single layer disc (the HD requires 2 layers).
Name -
CG is right in that this would *appear* to be a small advantage for HD DVD...not that the marketing for it has kicked in yet, but the name is easier for casual consumers to associate with HD TV. High-def already being an important pre-established term in everyone's lexicon.
However, marketing can be strange. Who would have thought that most people (mindlessly, to my chagrin) have decided that "mp3 player" is synonymous with something called an "ipod"?!? Or that the newest buzz surrounding cell phones was about one called "chocolate" (I have never understood why people care about how new/snazzy their cell phone is, it is the dumbest electronic accessory in my mind. So long as one works, who cares?). So it is hard to perdict what marketing trends catch on fire.
Some of canadiangoose's points were decent, but you really can't compare things like name and HD having a tiny lead to market (a whole 5,000 units ahead!) to the effect the PS3 is going to have on deciding the format war in advance for a whole lot of people, or Sony's titles (The BR version of Spiderman 3 is going to be one hell of a unit seller, it is going to hit at the perfect time). So I'd put about 75-80% odds on BR coming out on top, but it won't be a quick or easy fight.
Let's all take a moment and fantasize about what could have been...if either consortium had, early on in the process, said "ok, listen. Here's the deal. We'll give in, and in exchange, the other consortium, studios, electronics giants, and EVERYONE else just bribe us with millions/billions to make up for some of the money we would have made"....wouldn't everyone be way better off? DVD sales have been so tremendous because they have been so easy...this war will cause so much havoc with casual buyers (how many parents buy a player for their kid, only to have to take it back because it is the wrong format from what they already have? etc. etc.), that I think it will depress overall sales of TV shows and movies on BR/HDDVD. Also, we'd be getting a $400 dollar PS3 that would be be getting NOTHING but fabulous press about its upcoming games, we'd be taking about Cell all the time instead of how many copies of Mario Gardening or Mario Window Washing or whatever you could buy for $600, and everyone would have made more money. Right? Ok, end fantasy.
Rootbeer @ Aug 23rd 2006 7:40PM
"what matters in long run is studio backing.. the more studios you have behind your format.. the more movies and press you get."
And a lot of studios are smarting right now from their support of Sony's UMD format, which never made them as much money as Sony had suggested it could. Once bitten, twice shy?
Besides which, it's not the studio buy-in that matters. It's the consumer buy-in. I don't see either HD format getting a majority of consumers on its side in the next few years.
"[dual-format discs are] a very stopgap feature, since once people decide they'd like to see movies like Spiderman in high-def, the'll get a Blu-Ray player to play high-def content AS WELL as their entire DVD collection."
But if I buy Spider-Man once on a dual-format disc today, I won't HAVE to spend $30 to re-buy it when I decide it's time to upgrade to Hi-Def player. I'm future-proofing myself. Which is the same argument PS3 fanboys give justifying their decision to spend this year on hardware that they won't see the benefits of until next year.
"If you want a HD-DVD you either have to pay the $200 (estimated) and another $399 for a xbox 360 or you buy a HD-DVD standalone for even more."
The base price of a 360 is still $299, not $399.
And besides, standalone HD-DVD players don't cost "even more". You can buy one for $500 today. And I predict that at least one manufacturer will drop their price to $400 to compete against the PS3 launch. HD-DVD, still cheaper.
But I digress.
The format battle is not just HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray. Actually it is HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray vs. regular DVD, and my money is on the third to win handily. The other two will have to reconcile their differences and join forces to stand any chance of prevailing in the long run.
vaylen @ Aug 23rd 2006 8:46PM
@Rootbeer
"Actually it is HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray vs. regular DVD"
If Blu-Ray and HD-DVD couldn't play DVD's that would be true. Thinking like yours is what got Atari in trouble. They thought all new game systems would have to outsell the 2600 with it's huge installed base. But when better things came out that could ALSO play Atari games, they began to see they had waited too long to innovate and that was the beginning of the end for them. Blu-Ray doesn't have to outsell last-gen DVD players to be successful any more than TV's had to outsell radios in the 1950's to be successful. Blu-Ray just has to be the ONLY SURVIVING format for watching 720 and 1080 content, and then they will win. Because eventually everyone will realize that DVD's look too fuzzy on their new TV's (and after 2011 that will happen by mandate).
vaylen @ Aug 23rd 2006 8:48PM
I'm sorry, according to Wikipedia, "Analog NTSC transmissions will cease in the United States on February 17, 2009."
So scratch 2011, and replace it with 2009.
Brad Lee @ Aug 23rd 2006 8:52PM
Why are HD-DVD and BluRay even having this war? So few people even own HDTVs and therefore most people cannot see any difference between them and regular DVD, so whats the point? Even if millions of people bought a PS3, why would they pay extra for a BluRay movie if they don't have an HDTV? They won't, they'd just buy the DVD version.
Until HDTV sets become mainstream, this war is pointless. These two formats jumped the gun because there is simply not enough consumers out there who both a) have an HDTV and b) feel the $500 for an HDDVD player or $1000 for a Bluray player is worth the money. I mean, even those with HDTVs won't necessarily want either format because there isn't a big enough jump in quality.
It's as if these two formats are duking it out just for the hell of it. I really don't see a future for either format.
Ben Hobbs @ Aug 23rd 2006 9:06PM
Why are people rooting for the poorer quality format?
Seriously, every single review of the two has stated that HD DVD is far superior in picture quality to Blu-Ray - Thats the whole point isn't it?
socrates @ Aug 23rd 2006 9:26PM
Ben Hobbs - that has had to do with the early Bluray PLAYERS, not anything intrinsic to the Bluray format.
Brad Lee - because HDTVs are poised to become standard very very soon. The competing formats are duking it out a tad early to try and be the one poised to capture that burgeoning market. If one laid back and let the other take a huge lead in marketing, units produced, etc...then it would be akin to giving up.