Analyst plays Dr. Doom for PS3 launch numbers

Strange, second thing like this I heard today.

Sony America president Kaz Hirai revealed that the PlayStation 3 has not even begun manufacturing at all.

Any truth to any of this?

Lets hope PS3 launch will not turn into the 360 launch. With few units available at launch and no units available shortly after launch.

Im still torn about getting a PS3 this christmas. It depends on the launch titles. I may go for a 360 instead, in the end I want all 3. Top of my list is a HDTV and a PC upgrade though.

Elaborating on my previous post:


PLAYSTATION 3 manufacturing stuck at starting line?




By Cornelius Wilson on 08/21/06 at 10:26 PM

In his latest interview with GameSpot, Sony America president Kaz Hirai revealed that the PLAYSTATION 3 has not even begun manufacturing at all. Previous reports out of Taiwan put the PLAYSTATION 3 production schedule commencing at the beginning of July. With Kaz simply stating that the production lines have only been reviewed, retailers could be in for an even worse experience than last year's stocking issues with the Xbox 360.

GS: So is the PS3 already being manufactured?

KH: We haven't started manufacturing yet. Some of our ops guys were actually just in China, and also in Japan just reviewing the [production] lines and everything else. But they are, again, preparing as we speak to get the manufacturing going. We've not announced and we haven't set really a specific date to say, "As of this day we're going to start manufacturing."

With a commitment to 2 million consoles worldwide in November, Sony expects to distribute close to 700,000 to the North American market alone. Analysts have pegged worldwide demand at 8 million consoles, leaving many seekers empty handed this holiday season and beyond.

Ha, Here we go again!!!

Imagine if i am a publisher and I need my software to sell the highest possible amount this year.

Would I release my game on the 360 with approx. 9 million by November or release it on the PS3 with approx. 3 Million?

No wonder Konami and EA chose to ignore the PS3 as far a football is concern.

I just hope many of the publishers who banked on PS3 don't go bankrupt.

Well unfortunately unless a company makes like 10 million systems or something out the gate, and started production a year a head of time, its gonna be darn near impossible to satisfy demand.

This goes for the wii as well and the 360 too from what we've all seen.

In this day and age i think it'll be hard for ANY company to meet demand. If the Giant MS couldn't do it...i doubt very many can, especially with systems as hyped as the big 3 put out

This was mentioned a couple of days ago. Something to the affect someone from Sony saying they hadn't started production. Not sure what the issues are, or if this was the plan all along. One this is for certain, quantities will be limited this year I guarantee you.

kaizai you could also say that for the Wii.. and if publishers thought like that... no new system like Xbox would of ever gotten any games.

Most publishers would just publish multiplatform or would just stick with last gen because of the installed user base.

I mean why make something on 360 with only as you say 9million players if you can make it on PS2/GC/Xbox which has over 140mil combined?

360 didnt start manufacturing till september

and this is just another analyst

no matter how many they have for launch it will not be enough to satisfy demand

*sniff sniif*

Smells like Sony's downfall.

That or week-old brains.

Whatever the case may be, smells good to me either way!

Many publishers aren't really interested in making a launch titles anyhow. There's always shortages of hardware at launch and limited hardware sales/availability means limited sales of software.

Why do you think there's been this wave of good 360 titles recently?

Good developers will take the time to make their game great and release once the supply chain has stabilized and there are enough units in homes that their game will sell well.

Advice: go after the U.S. market and delay the Japanese and Europe launch, XBox has a susbtantial lead in U.S. territory.

Huh, yeah. MS started manufacturing in september, and they didn't have ANY problems meeting demand for the following 6 months....

Did they?

WOW, This is a HUGE suprise to me....NOT!!! Once again Sony is backpeddling and it's going to be a nightmare to get the PS3!! Yes, I want one one launch day but unless you are in the top 20 at your local EB, Gamestop or Toy R Us your screwed!! Thanks again Sony, you make being a fan like going down a slide of glass.....OUCH!!!!

hmmm, top 20 more like you need to be in the top 3 at your gamestop. Remember the buzz is the stores that sell the most PS2 and PSP product will get the most PS3 systems. They are breaking it up. Until recently it was based on PSP sales and in the coming weeks on PS2 sales. Fun way of distributing systems huh. So your smaller volume stores will see little to none. Good luck to those who want one. I have a feeling there is going to be a PS3 riot or something when the parents that don't read these blogs and news stories think they can camp out all night and get one. It will be much worse than 360s launch.

We all saw this comming. The farther back you look the larger amount of PS3's were supposed to be shipped by the end of the year. It seems the closer we get to launch, the less units will be there. I will be in line 24 hours before just to eBay that Sony machine. Otherwise its a waste of $$ in my opinion...

The company that makes the blue laser diodes said that Sony had to push back the release of their Blu Ray player because the diode manufacturer can't make these things fast enough. So, Sony decided that any diodes they could get their hands on would go to the PS3's.

I wonder how many Sony has procured thus far...

I mean really is anyone surprised that there's going to be shortages? C Ravitch, you should know better.

There's going to be shortages i'm betting for the Wii as well, no company would ever be able to meet the kind of demand those two systems will generate.

Sony has always said 4 million by march, but of course all those are going to sell out, so is there even anything here worth arguing about? Like the whole MS cant do DX10 thing... this is really a non issue.

People have know there'll be shortages for months. It just comes with launching a really hyped system.

ha hah hahahha hahha haah hhha haaa ha ha!!

But hey if Sony can somehow get 6 million units sold by March, they'd be doing pretty good in terms of units sold compartively speaking to the 360 by that same time frame.

I wonder what analysts think on the Nintendo system... since nInty's been pretty mum on the whole thing. What happens if they only ship with 2 million consoles worldwide? Now THAT will be a mad dash right there.

But come this xmas, i think both the Wii and PS3 will be in short supply due to demand.

By the way excellent to the point post Ketsuke

Every big new system has a shortage at first. It's been this way since the PS1, but somehow this time it SPELLS CERTAIN DOOM FOR SONY despite Nintendo apparently having no problems after initial DS shortages of the phat and then AGAIN with the Lite or the XBOX 360 shortages for months after launch.

Seriously, sometimes I think this site should be called NINTENDOSTIQ.

The Wii won't have the shortage problems because it's easier and cheaper to make. Less moving parts coupled with cheaper manufacturing costs equals bad news (again) for Sony come launch time.

I just can't wait to hear the excuses from the Sony fanboys when there $600 "game console" doesn't work right, let alone work at all. Betcha it will be worse than what we've seen so far.

One things for sure, there not reaching $100 million units this gen. Curious about that figure, is it sold or shipped, and if so how many of those are because the one the owner had before it broke? I don't know anyone who owns a PS2 and hasn't at least owned 2-3. Not because its cool. Nots because they don't know how to take care of it. It's because they're hardware is horrid. Think you'll see said problem with PS3?...

Absolutely.

They don't want to meet demand. They want the news stories about it being sold out and hard to find...sound familar?

Since this analyst downgraded the recommened value of Sony's stock I wouldn't be so dissmisive in saying "this is just another analyst".

Millions of dollars just evaporated based on what was stated above. It's one thing to be a fanboy but if you truly believe sony will win this console war why not invest in sony, say right now. If you are a Sony believer than the stock just went on sale. As for me i think the bears are going to rip sony a new one this fiscal year.

ahhhh tell me, crystal ball, what do you see??????

microsoft had a terrible launch... i wish we knew exact numbers on how many of their shipped units were broken out of the box... but watch for sony's issues to be even worse. i still haven't seen any updates on cell processor yields, but the last thing i remember reading put them at about 8%?

look for sony to sell bogus-ass ps3's this holiday season that don't even work. deliberately - JUST to get them in the hands of consumers. they're gonna think "ms pulled it off, we can too", but the problem is that ms had no "next-gen" competition at the time, and they have excellent customer service. sony will have the 360 lurking around every corner (not to mention wii) and unfortunately, excellent customer service is not a luxury sony supporters will be afforded.

watch pissed-off ps3 customers turn to xbox, as a broken out of the box ps3 will be the final straw for a lot of sony supporters who are on the fence...

next stop - mgs4 and ff13 ported to xbox360 due to ps3's meager and pathetic 1 year userbase.

-"superfan" tactics.

Sin...every console has problems and its share of lemon consoles... the only reasons it SEEMS like Sony had more is because they sold 4x more consoles than any other system... so it would seem that maybe 4x more were broken if the % of defective consoles were the same between GC/XB/PS2.

So yes maybe a few PS3's will break, but the same could be said for all those "reports" of 360's catching fire or overheating and breaking and i'm sure there will be a few Wii's that bust too.

In electronics... it happens, same as with cars.

and by the by, i've only owned 3 PS2's myself and none of them broke on their own accord and the 2nd one i traded in for the smaller slimmer 3rd one. and hte one that DID break.. well chalk that up to a little brother, a screwdriver and a heck of a lot of initiative.

This is good news for MS. When folks couldn't find a 360...there was nothing else to fallback to. But if the PS3 is not available...tons of folks will gladly take home a 360 that will have all the same games the PS3 has and whole years worth of titles...not to mention Gears of War. Also the 360 looks to be heavily supported by lots of cool peripherals this Christmas.

It's a no brainer. People will go home relieved that they spent $200 less on a system and were actually able to afford a few games and an extra controller instead.

"Sony has always said 4 million by march"

March or the end of the year? I heard the latter.....

Thanks JJ. Now, the reason why I posted that was because like Pixelator said, this is not newsworthy, as Nintendo could have the same problem, yet nothing from anyone. I just cannot handle the famboyism. I laugh at the fanboys of all stripes when I see stuff like this posted. I guess in some people's minds Nintendo can do no wrong, or in other's PS3 is going to be teh r0x0r!1 and on a third group the 360 is the future. And of course in each fanboys mind, the other systems are teh sux0r.

In the end it's all going to be about the content. Let us wait until after release and then compare notes. Until then all this flaming is rather pointless, although amusing.

Here's another reason I won't get a PS3 this year... They cancelled WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2007 for the PS3, but it's going ahead as planned on the Xbox 360. I guess the PS3 is just a pain to develop for.

Again, I think it looks like I currently own the console of choice for western third-party developers. I'm perfectly satisfied with the 360 for a few years.

Oh dear Lord I feel sorry for anyone that has to deal with Sony's Customer Service. Remember the PSP......

They are HORRIBLE. Maybe Sony is cutting back production to make sure every one they make has 100% quality and on launch day they can send all of there Customer Service reps home early because no one is calling. :) (Insert Ketsuke post here)

I work with the Real arcade games... The WORST boardset was Tekken 4. That game was always breaking. Guess what system it was based on? Here is a hint "Emotion Engine"

#14 About the riot of parents . . .

Do you think there will be a lot of parents camping out to shell out about $1000 US for a "game console" for their kids?

I really hope not.

"I have a feeling there is going to be a PS3 riot or something when the parents that don't read these blogs and news stories think they can camp out all night and get one."

I have a feeling there aren't all that many parents willing to shell out $499+ for some goddam video game thing, much less camp out all night, no matter how much their kid is going to cry if Santa doesn't bring it to him.

Look back at the 360 launch, or the PS2 for that matter. The large majority of the people buying them were not parents. They were single guys in their 20's with lots of disposable income.

" Thanks JJ. Now, the reason why I posted that was because like Pixelator said, this is not newsworthy, as Nintendo could have the same problem, yet nothing from anyone."

That's because Nintendo isn't using a new laser system(Blu-Ray) that so far is having issues outside ofg the PS3....This is why when Sony says "Nothing is wrong" (waves hand) and yet you have only one Blu-Ray system out and it has alot of issues...you kinda get worried....


Now if someone leaked a story saying that Nintendo is having problems getting all those parts in the very small Wii...you bet a dollar that the story would be EVERYWHERE....

to make 4 million by the end of the year they have to make a console
(if they started making them on sept 1,4 months 120 days)
comes out to 1 console every 2.6 seconds. For something that has very close standard (blu ray drive) it may become a problem.

Of course SONY doesn't have any full featured PS3 package at the moment. It's not how it works. They have been stock piling parts for months, but the actual assembly of the product won't start until 30-45 days before retail date. And in the case of a console, they also need to load the OS on the system - and that is on of the things they do. Kaz is talking about the assembly lines.

Edit: (...) - and that is one of the LAST things they do.(...)

Rootbeer is right the large majority of people who purchase a game console in the first couple of years, usually aren't parents with small children (heck i wish when i was under 10 my parents bought me hundreds of dollar sworth of video game equipment)
Most of the people who buy a console within the first year are early adopters and are generally teens to young adults with the disposable income.

Most parents that i know of wouldn't buy a Ps3 at 500/600 dollars... nor would they buy a 360 ad 300/400 either.

They would most likely either stick wiht the ps2/gc or xbox instead of brand new technology with only a few games for their kids. Unless of course they're gamers themselves and have the disposable income... Like my sister or something.

Now there's someone who just likes to buy things... she's had a xbox360 since launch.. and hasn't even plugged it up yet =p. But she's one of those people that likes to have the latest and greatest.. she always has to have the newest cell phone and computers etc etc.

OH MAN! This is great, they havn't started manufacturing yet! That means not enough PS3s will be out at launch. That Means I'll be able to sell one on Ebay at TWICE the price!! YAY FOR SONY! I GET A FREE PS3

@BAH

All that means is they need 23 production lines to put out a console a minute. 230 production lines = 1 console each every hour:40. 500 production lines = 1 console every 3+ hours. As we near 1000 production lines, it means each line would only have to produce 1 console every 7hours. I'm not in production so I can't say how many lines they will have world wide, but i'm sure it will be more than 1 so your estimate of 1 console every 2.6 seconds doesnt mean much.

Tho, I still think they wont make the 4million, yay yay for ebay!

Wow. When analysts say that the PS3 is going to kick ass in 2011, you all denounce it as "crazy analysts." When the doom of the PS3 is predicted, however, you all are all over it like a pregnant woman on vanilla ice cream with pickles.

...You all disgust me

Furthermore: IS EVERYBODY DISREGARDING THIS NEWS ITEM ABOUT ASUSTEK?!

http://www.joystiq.com/2006/07/19/ps3-begins-production-in-taiwan/

Yea I had to buy 2 ps1 and 2 ps2 my ps1 has to be upside down to work and ps2 wouldnt read dvd disc....Never once was tech support any help. That nod i have to give to xbox. A lot of people who had a broken(if it was really broken. Putting your shit next to a vent in the house in the winter time and then it freezing isnt what i consider broken(you did that shit)360 were replaced within a week

41. "Furthermore: IS EVERYBODY DISREGARDING THIS NEWS ITEM ABOUT ASUSTEK?!

http://www.joystiq.com/2006/07/19/ps3-begins-production-in-taiwan/"

Posted at 3:40PM on Aug 24th 2006 by ZENegade

Yes, ZENegade. Especially when THE HEAD OF THE COMPANY comes out and says they havent started production yet. You also are one of the select few fanboys that provides a blog article as fact...

@ ketsuke

Just because this is bad news for Sony does not mean it is not newsworthy. There are two reasons why this is definitely a newsworthy article. For one, the analyst is contradicting Sony's own numbers. The analyst doesn't believe Sony's 4 mil, and instead thinks Sony will produce no more than 3 mil by the end of the year. And for two, the information by the analyst caused Sony's stock to drop 3.2 percent. That may not seem like much, but a sudden drop of 3.2 percent can be a lot of money.

@ pixelator

You never get tired of accusing Joystiq of fanboyism do you? The article doesn't even have any commentary by Joystiq, it is simply a quote of what an analyst thinks, so why is Joystiq biased? I'm confused.

And your examples are lackluster at best. DS and 360 both came out before the competition, so initial shortages weren't as big a deal. The PS3 is going to come out against the 360 with shortages, while the 360 already has a year lead. That's not good. That means the PS3 will have to play catch up even more next year, while 360 gains more and more ground.

The less consoles Sony can produce, the more likely 360 is going to eat away at PS3's potential base.

There has been so many reports over the past few months, I have been lead to believe that sony has all the parts for the PS3 already. The manufacturing Kaz is refering to is probably about the assembly of the PS3.

2,000,000 consoles at launch...that's like about 83 days away, so 24000 a day, or 1000 an hour (working round the clock), or 16.7 a minute...1 every 3.6 seconds.
With 100 production lines, each line only needs to be able to make 1 every 360 seconds (10 minutes). So from start to finish, assembling one PS3 in 10 minutes sound reasonable?

I think to make it more interesting, sony should add the flexibility to convert PS3 in to a computer(no idea how..). I guess this could increase the sales well and also keeping the price in mind, it even matches with PCs. Also they could increase the price to compensate the loss.

"With 100 production lines, each line only needs to be able to make 1 every 360 seconds (10 minutes). So from start to finish, assembling one PS3 in 10 minutes sound reasonable?"

Actually yes. As a matter of fact, with multiple factories, I can easily see them assembling between 5 and 10 every ten minutes. Now having the units hand checked and tested is another matter.

im laughing at everyone saying joystiq is anti-sony. the WHOLE INTERNET is anti-sony now, cuz sony really f-ed things up. theres just... not much good news at all to report about them, while the bad news pile is getting pretty tall. this isnt just one isolated site, the whole sony fanboy community is dissolving. wii60 ftw!