Sony: 1mln to 1.2mln PS3s for North America in '06

by Christopher Grant { Sep 6th 2006 at 6:55PM }

Earlier today Sony dropped the bomb that they'd be delaying the PS3 launch in Europe (you guys didn't really think you'd get it at the same time as North America, did you?) and halving worldwide shipments for 2006 from 4 million to 2 million. So just how many of those 2 million are coming to North America? A Sony spokesperson told MTV News that instead of focusing on those day-one numbers, we should be looking at the 1 million to 1.2 million units available by the end of this year.

Now, we know the armchair analysts (and even some real ones) are getting all doom and gloom about the PS3's holiday prospects in light of today's announcements, but let's throw some context at the mess and see if we can't make this lump of coal shine. The Sony spokesperson was quick to point out the similarities between the PS3's impending launch and the now dominant PS2's launch back in 2000, which also shipped with a fraction of what was expected.

Keep reading for a fancy chart!

CONSOLE
Initial sales	514,000 in 2 weeks	500,000 first shipment	326K first 9 days	400K first shipment
1st holiday sales	1.5mln by '00	1.46mln by '01	900K by '06	1mln-1.2mln by '07
Current sales	4mln in NA and 10mln world by 03/01	43mln in NA and 106mln world as of 07/06	2.2mln in US now and 10mln+ world by '07 (est.)

Indeed, if one were to look at several recent North American console launches, you'd see a particular pattern. In 2000 when the Dreamcast sold 514,000 consoles in two weeks, it was record-breaking and worthy of press releases proclaiming the feat. Just one year later when the PS2 launched, those same numbers were indicative of a shortage.

What we're saying is that, basically, these numbers don't mean anything. Despite what appears to be gross incompetence to much of the gaming press and the hardcore industry watchers (that's you guys), the mainstream gamer is blissfully unaware of reductions in shipping estimates. To him, it will appear that the PS3 is the hottest thing this holiday -- just like the Xbox 360 appeared to be last year and the PlayStation 2 back in '00 -- and may have no problem waiting for the demand and/or price to go down. People are still buying PS2s today, remember? Just a reality check before the hype consumes us all.

Tags: MTV News, MtvNews

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

C. Grant @ Sep 6th 2006 6:30PM

Much appreciated if anyone can find the missing numbers to complete the chart. Dreamcast's first North American holiday sales #s and the 360's estimated units sold in North America by '07.

vaylen @ Sep 6th 2006 7:06PM

Considering they will ship 2 million in 2006, I'd say putting 1.2 million of those in the U.S. is smart. They know they are going to win the high-end market in Japan over the xbox 360 without even trying. Europe will be tougher with Microsoft still having until March to increase their lead, but Microsoft is met with much more suspicion in Europe than in the U.S. That will be the marketplace to keep your eye on.

Corey @ Sep 6th 2006 7:10PM

whatever. Im going to have to geek a desperate housewife to get a PS3, if I even want one.

Striker Dude @ Sep 6th 2006 7:12PM

Well, I must say that sucks for Europe (the whole delay and everything), but atleast it won't be as hard to find (like a 360 was) in the US. Ofcourse, that's if sony sticks by what they're saying.

cringer8 @ Sep 6th 2006 7:14PM

If it was so apparent to them that this is how things would go down, why would they even claim 1 mil at launch and 4 mil by '07? They should have either kept their mouths shut or simply said, "You can expect a launch similar to the PS2's."

People only get upset when they're lied to (repeatedly).

It would be like me saying, "I can bench 500 lbs." But when I get on the bench, I only manage to lift 200 pounds and say, "Well, what did you expect? Of course I couldn't lift 500 lbs."

The less they say, the better for everyone.

Darth Pixel @ Sep 6th 2006 7:22PM

Xbox 360 numbers are SHIPPED not SOLD.

So, that is "10mln+ world by '07" SHIPPED.

striderhayasa @ Sep 6th 2006 7:23PM

We'll see. Considering the technology that's going into the PS3, let's hope that the 400,000 units for NA actually work.

Really, This is not the same the DC era. Sony has been dominant for the last ten years. MS wasn't in the arena in the DC era...(assisting Sega doesn't count)

The competition is hungry. 360 is more than capable of competing against PS3. Dreamcast had no shot against the PS2 for the long haul and not because of limited technology because Sega was nearly broke. Gamecube looked like a contender until Nintendo's image gimped it. Xbox had the power to compete but not the 3rd part support and certainly not the first party killer apps save Halo.

The point is, this is a different time and Sony needed some better news for the gamers after the beating they took during and after e3. Microsoft is in a great position (except in Japan) being the first out of the gate with a great online service, quality titles in the pipleine and a powerful console.
Nintendo is the suprise of the year with the Wii's potential being displayed for many to see ( and play) and the growing anticipation for the console and third party support to boot. Not to mention they still have the best first party development of the three.

It's going to be an interesting christmas but in all honesty, my money is going towards DS, Wii and maybe a couple of PSP games.

Dux @ Sep 6th 2006 7:25PM

I know all the Xbox fan boys are going to be raging mad about this, but Microsoft lied to us. They said the "Xbox 360 was the fastest selling console of all time". Then why did the PS2 sell faster? Anyone care explaining that to me? I think Microsoft lied to us.

fritzilla @ Sep 7th 2006 1:22AM

Ok, so they will have 500 thousand between now and Nov 17th. Or basically 500K in two months.

Then, magically they will make another 1.5 million in the last month?

Ah, doesn't seem likely.

So that would mean they would have the capacity to make about 400K a week in Dec but only 500K between now and launch? What are they going to start production in the last possible week prior to launch?

Talk about being unprepared.

fritzilla

Tony @ Sep 6th 2006 7:27PM

Can we even trust Sont anymore?

Shaun @ Sep 6th 2006 7:28PM

i couldn't give a rats arse about the numbers, there will be shortages whatever they ship.

worldwide release is what was announced, share them out!

personally i hope it bombs, i hope come xmas the shelves are stacked high with PS3's gathering dust. then maybe by march '07 the price will plummet and we can atually afford one without turning to crime.

Robotic House Plant @ Sep 6th 2006 7:30PM

::banging head on desk at mention of shipped vs sold::

DECEMBER @ Sep 6th 2006 7:36PM

I'm not sure how to put this diplomatically, but why would anyone believe what Sony has to say about unit availablility at this point?

Every time they break one promise, they come up with another one to replace it... and people lap it up.

If you can get your hands on a PS3 this holiday w/out paying obscene amounts on eBay- more power to you.
I hope the launch lineup turns out to be decent.

I, for one, seriously doubt they'll come anywhere near that 1.2 mil mark in North America before '07.

What can I say? Color me worn out and cynical at this point.

JoseMiguel @ Sep 6th 2006 7:42PM

It is not the same. Not at all, because whereas Sony was the undisputed king back then, and had everyone grabbed by the balls with the ps2 hype, all they've had lately is bad news one after another in all fronts, including being named in the demolitions business with its exploding batteries.

Neither had they two outstanding competitors back then.
MS had to take a year, so Did nintendo. Sega was bleeding money thus PS2 reigned supreme for over a year and when the competition showed their heads it was too late.

It's not the same as I said. Not at all.

anti-fanboy @ Sep 6th 2006 7:44PM

@ Darth Pixel the 360 # up until are sold not shipped because most stores where still waiting on pre orders until mid Jan. of 06.

Jaerock @ Sep 6th 2006 7:52PM

Let's not forget that none of those other consoles cost $600. If you don't that will factor in to the purchasing decision as to what to purchase you're crazy.

I agree with #9 too. Will you be shocked if they say "Oh, well, Blu-Ray screwed us again... only 700k by year end. Sorry"

KVN @ Sep 6th 2006 7:52PM

Joystiq it's nice to see you guys took the time to make that chart but there's a flaw,three out of the four consoles on that chart had no real competion for about a year.So the shortages didn't really effect them.Sony is jumping into the toughest console war to date those numbers or lack there of are really going to hurt them.People are going to look at the ps3 and see that not only does it cost $600 but it's no where in site,and people can easily pick up a 360 or maybe a wii.

foing @ Sep 6th 2006 8:06PM

Not sure how this is comparable to the PS2 launch.

Microsoft has established a really high bar for online gaming that I'm not convinced Sony can match, plus all the excitement around the Wii, plus the $200-400 price premium for the PS3. There is NO positive press for the PS3 at this point, and there hasn't been for months. It's appearing to be a perfect storm that will dethrone the gaming console leader.

No doubt, they'll sell everything they ship this holiday season, but I think MS and Nintendo will outsell them by a factor of 5. When the year ends and they have managed a meager 5% market share in the US, and 0% in Europe, they're going to have a huge uphill battle to survive this generation outside of Japan.

It all boils down to blu-ray. That blue laser is going to be Sony's albatross for at least the next year or 2, and if BR loses the format war it'll be weighing them down for the whole life of the product. They're betting the whole company on a single technology, and a single product, and it's just not something people want bad enough to save them.

Chris @ Sep 6th 2006 8:04PM

The point isn't how many that ship.
20units, 600,000, 1 million, 2 million, or 89 million units shipped doesn't mean jack.

They just have to sell. And when all 500,000 of those sell... and there is demand for more... we'll know if the ps3 will do well or not.

All 500,000 being sold means... it will be as popular or more popular than the 360.

polly @ Sep 6th 2006 8:07PM

Sony shares dropped over 2% today from this announcement and analysts on CNBC are doubtful of them even reaching the 2 million units the company is now forcasting. The PS3 is not delivering on exclusive hits any time soon and even with a sell out at launch and low supply/high demand hype similar to what the 360 enjoyed last year this is bad news. Sony is not going to enjoy the next 6 months.

Xandui @ Sep 6th 2006 8:18PM

ps2 had absolutly no real competition when it first shipped other than the poor dreamcast which completly destroyed by sony's marketing campaign. Now sony is the company with their system shipping last instead of microsoft and microsoft has never had such a strong showing before. I really believe that the proven ds formula is going to mint money for nintendo with the WII although those losses arent necessarily in direct competition with the ps3 simply because the price difference keeps both systems targetted at completly different people. 360 is going to sell like crazy this holiday. With a strong holiday line up of games and proper advertising microsoft stands to do very well.

Tom @ Sep 6th 2006 8:22PM

Wait so despite the fact they have over 2months between now and the ps3 launch they can only produce 500k. Yet in the month and a half from then onwards they can make 1.5million?
Ok if that is true then they should be making 500k every 2 weeks and why cant they launch in europe at the start of december?
This is complete bs. I mean I know manufacturing gets more efficient over time but they expect to be able to triple output?
I do not see any possible way that they could triple output. It can't be because of a shortage in supplies being resolved either as we already know they have diverted all supplies to the ps3 so are making them as fast as possible. As i said this also begs the question why are they able to ship 2million units in a month and a half and yet not even 100k to Europe?

Using your sources and wikipedia MS managed to ship out an extra 800kmillion after the launch of the 360. Considering they launched with 700k and had been producing since roughly the same time beforehand I just can't see Sony doing this. Taking time into account MS managed to just about increase their production to between 1.5-2.

I dunno maybe i am missing out on something? I would love for someone to correct me because at the moment it seems to me like Sony are either lying or creating a shortage on purpose.

Cool8man @ Sep 6th 2006 8:48PM

Dreamcast Sales Numbers:

Dreamcast
Sep-99 578,285
Oct-99 176,056
Nov-99 248,563
Dec-99 495,356

About 1.5 million total.

QW @ Sep 6th 2006 9:03PM

Wow, the Dreamcast sold 1.5 million in North America by it's first Christmas?

That's interesting, considering that the 360, has only sold 2.2 million in NA, after 9 months:

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6155651.html?q=npd%20july

Peter @ Sep 6th 2006 9:03PM

Christopher Grant: Don't you mean 1 mil to 1.2 mil?

Cool8man @ Sep 6th 2006 9:54PM

"Wow, the Dreamcast sold 1.5 million in North America by it's first Christmas? That's interesting, considering that the 360, has only sold 2.2 million in NA, after 9 months"

Dreamcast was on sale for 4 months so of course it's launch numbers look really impressive, if you just count Nov./Dec. it had the same launch numbers as Xbox 360. Unforuntately unlike Xbox 360 demand for Dreamcast died after that impressive launch period and the price was dropped a year later:

Jan-00 60,618
Feb-00 81,890
Mar-00 61,187
Apr-00 43,968
May-00 34,262
Jun-00 47,167
Jul-00 35,818
Aug-00 51,576 *$199>$149

By comparison Xbox 360 has been selling about 250K-300K each month and doesn't need a price drop. Holiday launch numbers matter a lot less than how the console does after the initial launch hype is over.

Rallion @ Sep 6th 2006 10:26PM

@21:

Think simpler -- They haven't started production yet, and won't for a little while longer.

cARLTON @ Sep 6th 2006 10:45PM

Just what I expected. Too bad for the gamers in Europe. Now I just need to get on the pre-order list of every store in my area, I need 2 for ebay;

I see people paying over $1000 just to be the first to get one.

Happy Day for some.

Paul Gale @ Sep 6th 2006 10:56PM

There's one big difference this time around though. Dreamcast came out with no competition at the same time. PS2, the same. Xbox 360, the same. This is not so with the PS3. PS3 is coming out alongside the Nintendo Wii and just one year after Xbox 360 and during a time when the DS Lite is going to be very powerful in the US with upcoming big Fall releases. That's what's not realized here it seems. Sony shipping similar numbers to past competitors is half the story, but the bigger half is that now there is competition, DC and 360 had no other "new" rivals at the time of their debuts.
Paul Gale
1up.com

Pixel D @ Sep 6th 2006 11:32PM

Anybody ever think that the launch will be a mix of the 2 Sku's? From my understanding nobody wants to touch the $500 version with a ten foot pole. So does that mean we are really looking at roughly 300k of the $600 version?

epobirs @ Sep 7th 2006 12:00AM

Shouldn't the hottest item of the season be the one most purchased as opposed to the one most desired but unobtainable? If a million people 'settle' for the competition because there are only 100K of the new item, who really won the holiday?

O'Neill @ Sep 7th 2006 12:06AM

These guys at Teamxbox hit the nail on PS# with this! Read on to laugh at Kutaragi's face.....fun real facts........PS3 embarass me. I feel ashame of them. They make me puke!

Read on!

http://editorials.teamxbox.com/xbox/1725/PlayStation-3-Worldwide-Launch-PostPWNED/p1

Windmill @ Sep 7th 2006 12:43AM

Are you kidding me? This is nothing like the ps2 launch. The ps2 launch- the big players (and no, sega does NOT count, the dreamcast wasn't doing that good at all) were not in there. The ps3 had a years grace- this time, its got a bad launch with already big player microsoft, and with the impending nintendo wii looking to gobble up people- potential buyers. This is more like the DS vs PSP launch, where it was delayed in europe- but on a much worse scale, as the wii has built up heaps of momentum, AND sony will be competiting with microsoft, not just nitnedy.

Infil @ Sep 7th 2006 1:36AM

It's really true that we have no idea how many of these will be the gimped version. Most of the hardcore group wants the $600 version, and there will be even fewer of those around than the numbers listed (half, maybe? Slightly more than half?). Either way, this number could shrink even more soon, and it's already lower than it looks due to the 2 SKUs.

Note how Sony never offered a breakdown. We might end up with some PS3s sitting on shelves, because people don't want to spend $500 on something they can't upgrade later. They'd rather just wait until more $600 units come in.

tactics @ Sep 7th 2006 2:06AM

nah. none will sit on shelves. the uninformed/ignorant will buy up all the 500$ units. sony knows this. they'll probably send a majority of those, if they were smart. they probably take less of a loss on those. (note: not *make more money*, but *take less of a loss* har har har.)

meaning, "mom" and "average ps2 casual who got a raise". they probably won't know, or won't care. they'll probably bundle it with memory cards/controllers/etc and make even more.

as dumb as sony's been acting lately, they're not actually stupid. they'll come out with whatever they want... and if they want smaller losses, they'll ship shitty bundles.

-"superfan" tactics.

VorpalMonkey @ Sep 7th 2006 2:22AM

Why does everyone compare the $500 dollar system to the 360 tard pack? The $500 SKU is still very good, comes with a decent hard drive (as big as the 360s) and doesn't loose functionality. Why would only the uninformed buy it? Personally I don't have a HD tv so HDMI is meaningless, and I don't have a wireless network, but a wired one so the wireless is meaningless. I'm buying the 500 dollar version. How am I uninformed again?

ill trooper @ Sep 7th 2006 3:10AM

People: When did you get your 360? Was it around May? Was it anytime in 2006? Or do you not really buy anything anyway? Haters here, posting and talking... Acting like you never enjoyed a PS2 in your lifetime, while the real gamers look forward to all the systems.

Are you complaining about something Sony is doing while MS did the same thing? Bring about a half-mil units to the party, when everyone wants one? Then bolster it with a few shipments before Christmas?

...Which is about on par with the 360 launch and follow-through from last year. So many people on this site (and I guess I'm really talking about 30-40 Sony haters who post incessantly) are loving to point out that Sony dropped the ball here - but really, it's about what the 360 did. Something I will give you guys: I'm disappointed by the fact that Sony, who designs and builds hardware as a primary task, can't get the unit's launch numbers higher than Microsoft, a reletively new hardware company.

Anyway, getting a unit at launch isn't always best: I just got back my replacement 360 after my launch-day unit died, 8 months in. The first PS3s might have the same fate... A shitty 90-day warranty like the 360 does, on wildly fast mass-production of untested hardware. Great. Still, I am buying one, like I did with the 360, and will with the Wii.