Joystiq posters play pre-conference prognosticators

In his book, The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki argues that large groups of people are better at predicting the future than any single guesser. With that in mind, we here at Joystiq have decided to pool our predictive abilities together to get a jump on tomorrow's likely official announcement of the Wii's U.S. price and street date.
Below the jump are our best guesses based on gut feelings, experience covering other console launches, and a careful reading of the endless rumors that have circulated around the launch. The blogger with the closest guesses will live on in eternal glory around the Joystiq "offices" -- the worst guesser will be mocked mercilessly until our fingers can dish out no more IM taunts. We've also thrown in our totally ludicrous predictions for potential MEGATON announcements that could come out of the conference, just for fun.
Remember, we're trained, professional bloggers, so don't try this kind of wild guessing at home. Try it in the comment thread instead! We'll compile averages for all the guesses filed before the official announcement (probably sometime between 9 and 10 a.m EST tomorrow) and see how smart our crowd of commenters actually is.
Price guesses:
- Alan: $179
- Ludwig: $199
- Kyle: $199
- Ross: $199.82 (or $379.99 for the premium model Premium model includes gold hardware, a "Grow Your Own Pikmin!" kit, and Duck Hunt for the NES)
- Chris: $200 (even though "$229 is the cool price to guess")
- Vlad: $219.99
- James: $229.99
- Jennie: $249 (or "about half what it will cost in Europe")
- Blake: $249
Median: $200 (Chris)
Release date guesses:
- Ross: Oct. 11 ("Think about it: Wednesday the 11th : W 11")
- Chris: Oct. 16
- James: Oct. 29
- Kyle: Nov. 2
- Jennie: Nov. 3 (or "a month before it gets to Europe")
- Vlad: Nov. 9
- Alan: Nov. 9
- Blake: Nov. 12
- Ludwig: Nov. 12
Median: Nov. 3 (Jennie)
Megaton announcement guesses: (in approximate increasing order of likelihood)
- Blake: No idea, but something tells me all the hype of "secrets" will leave me feeling disappointed
- James: There are no more hardware secrets.
- Kyle: Virtual console can also play Neo Geo titles.
- Vlad: Will run iTunes.
- Ludwig: An $899 Wii will be revealed, one that supports playback of Blu-Ray, HD-DVD and a third format still in the process of being invented.
- Ross: "The first 100 customers who purchase a Wii will be personally licked by Miyamoto," according to Reggie. "The second 100 customers will get a kick in the nuts by me."
- Chris: HOLOGRAPHIC RETINAL IMPLANTS!











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Dracula Jones @ Sep 13th 2006 4:33PM
$199.99 packed with 2 Controllers w/ Nunchakus and Wii Sports.
Confusatron @ Sep 13th 2006 4:35PM
I'm playing it safe with the price. I think $200 will be the price (fairly typical in console launch history).
As for the launch date, I'm going with October 2. Wishful thinking? Yeah.
Paul P. @ Sep 13th 2006 4:35PM
Chris was close. The Megaton is actually holographic RECTAL implants. You're going to be fartin video game characters.
Bloo @ Sep 13th 2006 4:35PM
I predict azn_1080p will find a way to mention the Xbox 1.5 in this comment section
Tobor @ Sep 13th 2006 4:36PM
$199
Oct 31
Wii Sports pack in.
mr sauce @ Sep 13th 2006 4:37PM
i posted yesterday on the article about the games on your ipod that has anyone noticed that when you open up i-tunes on your computer look at the tab at the bottom of your screeen and the i-tunes logo has a blue wii tint to it.... i'm probably reading more into it than what it's worth, but maybe i'm on to something...who knows.
Bloo @ Sep 13th 2006 4:37PM
Oh yeah... $199, maybe $149
Jake @ Sep 13th 2006 4:39PM
November 2 at $199 USD
That is when it actually will be released. It will be announced tomorrow. There are a couple of little bonus tidbits with the console, but I can't get the specifics.
There aren't any more major secrets, except a headset/mic, which is hardly a secret. Some more DS connectivity shtuff, I guess. Virtual console selection will be impressive, but no single title will truly shock anyone.
Rich @ Sep 13th 2006 4:38PM
I like the logic of wii = Wednesday the 11th.
However I prefer breaking the W into Two V's, and the looking at it as some very poorly used Roman Numerals
VV=10
ii=2
so 10/2 it is
Ryan @ Sep 13th 2006 4:38PM
Basic stuff.
$199
November 15
2 controllers + Super Mario Galaxy
Ben @ Sep 13th 2006 4:39PM
Is Jennie bitter or something?
~B.
Mal F4cti0n @ Sep 13th 2006 4:47PM
Oh, I know, the PS3 will not be coming to the States or Japan until March 2007 and European launch has been pushed back to Fall 2007.
Flame War!
Sorry, I just still don't believe the PS3 will be here this November. Don't disappoint, Sony.
Zertoss @ Sep 13th 2006 4:41PM
Price: $249.99 (it's still less than $250!)
Date: Oct. 10, Tuesdays seem to be launch days
Megaton: Virtual Console games can be downloaded to the Wii and transferred to the DS, VC card to store a handful of games is announced but not priced, but they will probably say it will be less than $35
BB @ Sep 13th 2006 4:41PM
I would have to say Nintendo has majority of the time sold their consoles for the low low price of $199. So this console will be no different because the japanese are so big on tradition and superstition.
Day will be Oct. 11 (Ross makes a valid point why it would be that day)
-B
KyleRayner @ Sep 13th 2006 4:43PM
Prediction for USA:
*$249.99
*2 controllers, two nunchucks, composite (RCA) cables, 256MB SD card, update disc, coupon for one free Virtual Console game if you register the system, Wii Sports
*November 11 release date (11/11, nice and marketable with the double one's reflecting the double ii's and 1+1=2 theme they have going on.)
*card to get a free issue of Official Nintendo Power or whatever they call it
Zero @ Sep 13th 2006 4:44PM
I bet at midnight Robert Summa will have an exclusive report on how the money everyone will be using to pay for a Wii has been in production by the US mint (and other countries' respective mints) for years already. Everyone should stay up for it!
Zertoss @ Sep 13th 2006 4:44PM
Haven't all previous Nintendo consoles (not handhelds) launched at $300, not $200?
Tony @ Sep 13th 2006 5:37PM
$199
Nov. 4th
Though I wish it would be sooner, Nov 4. gives them time to work out the last kinks, yet still be 1 week ahead of PS3.
Hammer @ Sep 13th 2006 4:44PM
$249
1 controller, 1 classic controller, 1 nunchuk + console
Choice of free VC download
Free Wii Sports & Wii Music games
Graphics have been downplayed as has the processing power, but not by much.
IslandLife @ Sep 13th 2006 4:45PM
I'll try to figure out the price and date after I figure out why Joystiq has an advertisement for the "10 best bras ever" in the upper right corner of the page.
What next, adertisements for Vagisil and Depends undergarments?
Do you even know your demographic Joystiq?!
Spudnick @ Sep 13th 2006 4:50PM
the day Wii gets released is the day that The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess gets released
just a fact that everyone is forgeting
SpliceVW @ Sep 13th 2006 4:51PM
IslandLife.. I'll be the first to admit that I clicked the bra advertisement. I'm sure they're raking in cash from it.
Zertoss.. all Nintendo consoles (with exception of NES very briefly) were $199, not $300.
RM @ Sep 13th 2006 10:29PM
It will come out sometime after November 10th.
CannedPasta @ Sep 13th 2006 4:52PM
$200, October 22 (Nintendo always releases colsoles on Sundays, and that is my Sunday choice)
Ryan @ Sep 13th 2006 4:51PM
Haha. I notied the bra ad as well. Very strange. Being the male I am, I must admit I clicked on it.
Sam @ Sep 13th 2006 4:53PM
I like the Oct 11 date. Seems a little close though. I'm going with Oct 31st with a price of $249. 2 controllers and nunchucks, Wii Sports, and 1 free Virtual Console game.
vidGuy @ Sep 13th 2006 4:56PM
US Launch
October 20-22
$199
2 Remotes, 2 Nunchuks, Wii Sports on Wii-DVD
Semi-Megaton: All VC retro downloads will be $1 to $5; new content will be $5 to $10. System launches with 30 - 40 retro games available.
Megaton: Wii has visual capabilities at "80% XBOX360 quality". This, of course, is equated to 160% XBOX quality visuals.
James @ Sep 13th 2006 4:55PM
$229, November 2. 2 remotes + nunchuks. 1 virtual console contoller. Wii Sports and a code for one free VC game packed in. Secret: Dreamcast VC games.
White Rose Duelist @ Sep 13th 2006 4:55PM
My guess:
$199.99 US price
10 October relase date
Includes 2 controllers and 1-3 free VC downloads
flyers241 @ Sep 13th 2006 4:55PM
Price: $149.99
Date: Oct. 1st
Megaton: All Wii games are $40 or lower
... that's more wishful thinking than actual guess though.
raphael @ Sep 14th 2006 3:11PM
4 wiis combine together to produce a HD signal.
32_footsteps @ Sep 13th 2006 4:57PM
Ross sold me on October 11 - it's catchy and sticks in the head.
For the price, I'll venture around $225. Just feels right.
As for big announcements, I'm going to guess that they're going to show off way more VC titles than previously expected at launch. The only third parties that have confirmed so far are the ones who once made consoles. If Nintendo suddenly drops the works of, say, Capcom, Konami, and Square Enix available on the launch, *especially* if they ported the games they made for the Playstation 1, then just imagine what would happen.
ExNihilo @ Sep 13th 2006 5:03PM
Oct. 24
$229.99
Extra Wiimote
Wii Sports
Megaton is that MGS4, Guitar Hero and FF will be on the Wii, making PS3 a 14lb, $600 paper weight. ;)
cman @ Sep 13th 2006 11:56PM
$200
October 17
2 controllers, nunchuk
Wii Sports (20 launch games)
points for virtual console
Daniel @ Sep 13th 2006 5:00PM
October 1 (it's Q4, right?!)
$199.99 US
packaged with Wiimote and nunchuck, Wii Sports, classic controller and a voucher for one free Virtual Console game.
Mark D @ Sep 13th 2006 5:00PM
@islandlife
Course they do. Unwashed-pimply-faced teenagers who can get off looking at models in bras. Oh yeah!
Paul P. @ Sep 13th 2006 5:01PM
"Course they do. Unwashed-pimply-faced teenagers who can get off looking at models in bras. Oh yeah!"
Those guys don't usually BUY the bras though.
Judd @ Sep 13th 2006 5:03PM
November 7th, Election Day (I can see the ads now. "On Election Day Don't Vote For Them: Vote for Wii")
$229 w/Nunchuck and Wii Sports
Nintendo announces a better online service, with features such as friends list, though not as detailed as Xbox Live, it will remain free and will run titles such as Super Smash Bros. Brawl.
C. Kent @ Sep 13th 2006 5:03PM
November 7th.
$229.99
3 games pre-loaded on system, one of which is Kid Icarus.
m3mnoch @ Sep 13th 2006 5:03PM
unswervingly, the wii will be $249.
megaton? that they've actually beat the odds and shipped a console! oh. wait. wrong company.
m3mnoch.
Thomas @ Sep 13th 2006 5:03PM
You pretty much copied the idea from Digital Battle,
http://digitalbattle.com/2006/09/13/guess-the-wii-price-and-launch-date/
Sam @ Sep 13th 2006 5:03PM
MEGATON Announcement:
Resident Evil Wii launch title!
Samba De Amigo as a Virtual Console dl!
The controllers charge themselves everytime you move them!
opnickc @ Sep 13th 2006 5:06PM
$229
November 13th
Directional Force Feedback (using centripital force, a spinning even weight can "pull" an object in a direction. This is how monster trucks steer while midair. This type of force feedback could actually pull the controller, allowing deflections from a sword or drag on a virtual airplane).
exy @ Sep 13th 2006 6:55PM
Oct. 31st
Come on guys... it's Hallo"Wii"n
$199, Nintendo is a bunch of traditionalists, they aren't going to change their console launch prices any time soon.
Tom @ Sep 13th 2006 5:10PM
The Wii will sell for $199.98 and will be released on October 16th. It will come with free credit good toward one or more Virtual Console purchases.
airpolgas @ Sep 13th 2006 5:10PM
Jake's tone on his post seem matter of factly. Are you an insider, Jake? Or are those just guesses like the rest of us?
Mine are:
$199.99 at 10/10 just for the heck of it (it's a Tuesday). One controller. I also predict no game bundles. The games will be bundled by the vendors, not by Nintendo.
If it turns out $199.99, who gets the guess points between Ross and Chris?
Covarr @ Sep 13th 2006 5:10PM
Price: $199. Just like always.
Launch Date: October 15
Megaton Announcement: Bundled with the Megaton Hammer from the Zelda series.
Flesh Cakes @ Sep 13th 2006 6:51PM
I predict 229$ US, launching late October, or early November.
Comes with 1 controller, and maybe (hopefully), Wii Sports and a couple of Virtual Console games (most likely have at least Super Mario Bros).
If it arrives before my week off in October, I'll be very very happy!
Sam @ Sep 13th 2006 5:11PM
extra credit points to opnickc for knowing how a monster truck steers in the air!
cringer8 @ Sep 13th 2006 5:11PM
I think I've got the *perfect* guess:
Date: November 6th
Price: $199
Final Secret: Free first-party downloads off VC.