Wii predictions wrap-up
Now that the big questions surrounding the Wii launch have been definitively answered, it's time to go back and check on the collective predictive abilities of the Joystiq community and the internet at large.Among Joystiq bloggers, Jennie and Blake both picked the correct price at $249, while Blake and Ludwig were the closest to the actual launch date with guesses of Nov. 12. All the other bloggers are currently drowning in a pool of their own tears at their lack of predictive ability.
Among the commenters, only 12 of out of 78 recorded price guesses were in the $249-$250 range, indicating that Joystiq readers were definitely expecting a lower price. Not one comment guesser correctly picked the Nov. 19 date, though commenters Ryan (Nov. 15) and Iwata (Nov. 23) were only off by four days. Iwata also correctly predicted the packed-in controller, nunchuck and Wii Sports, but his prediction of a free virtual console game proves that there are limits to his psychic abilities.
Averaging it all out, Joystiq's $213.87 average guess was closer than the commenters' $208.80, and the Nov. 1 average blogger guess was a full week better than the Oct. 24 commenter average. So, basically, we're smarter than you, but not by much.
Looking over the well-publicized rumors from before the announcement, it seems one of the earliest was one of the most prescient -- EGM called the price way back on May 8. As far as release date rumors, IGN's insider source tip of Nov. 12 was closest but still no cigar. Could the plans have changed after IGN got their information?
So what's the take away from all this? Your guess is as good as ours. No, seriously, that's the takeaway ... when it comes to predicting launch details, your guess is as good as ours.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
32_Footsteps @ Sep 15th 2006 3:33PM
"So, basically, we're smarter than you, but not by much."
Or on the flip side, you're just more subtly wrong than we are.
It really all is a guessing game - it's why I tried not to put too much into my guesses. I think people got (or are getting) way too up in arms over it all, myself.
pandlcg @ Sep 15th 2006 3:40PM
I was still under the impression that there was one surprise left from nintendo concerning the Wii. Did i miss it over the past couple of months or was it too lame to matter? Or did i just make that up in my mind?
Covarr @ Sep 15th 2006 3:40PM
We should have seen the launch date coming: Sunday before Thanksgiving. Anybody who didn't correctly predict this (read: The entire internet) is dumb. Then again, we also don't understand timezones, so we already knew we were dumb.
As for the price, I'm a bit surprised that the Wii is costing $250, because it's the first Nintendo console not to launch at $200, but I'm not angry or anything, after factoring in inflation, along with the cost of the technology in the Wiimote.
It's odd that the price broke tradition and the launch date didn't, yet more people were correct about the price than the launch date.
Matt Lite @ Sep 15th 2006 3:44PM
I believe that all predictive powers were hindered by Nintendo's assertion that the Wii would launch before the PS3. Why would anyone have guessed a later date?
http://www.ScubaOwl.com
Aden Nak @ Sep 15th 2006 3:48PM
I predicted a November 8-15 launch at the earliest, a $200-250 price point (leaning towards $250 if the box had more than just the system and one controller), and an extra in the box (either a second controller or a game). Of course, I also predicted Metroid at launch, but that's only because we were promised it.
So what do I win? :P
http://www.adennak.com/blog/wordpress/?p=92
Gavin @ Sep 15th 2006 3:54PM
I think this price point and package is going to sink the Wii's chances with casual gamers this holiday season. I've worked in video gaming retail before and holiday sales for nongamers results in them buying the old systems that have been discounted. The PS2 is going to clean up this holiday season I think. They are going to market it to the cheap-o's and parents who are looking to buy something for their kids. Their will also be a bunch more XB0X 360's sold and of course the PS3 will sell out because it is shipping in such small numbers. Those sellouts will work for Sony's advantage because just like MS last holiday, the news agencies will latch onto the shortages and buying frenzy as a story of the must-have items. The PSP and DS will continue to be close in sales in the U.S. and the Gamecube will almost completely vanish from our American sales charts.
Sorry Nintendo fans, but this is not going to be the revolutionary launch that you all had dreams about. This is reality.
It reminds me of the last great launch cycle where Sega fans worked themselves up into a frenzy over the launch of the Dreamcast and vowed up and down the net that it was going to demolish the Playstation and all other competitors. The net was all abuzz over the possibilities of the DC and the hype was almost deafening. Net hype doesn't always manifest in reality though. Similar things happen in the film industry with online gossip and fanboys. They swore Serenity/Clerks II/Snakes On A Plane were all going to be gigantic blockbusters that redefined how Hollywood looked at niche films that fans would make into gigantic successes. Didn't end up that way.
The same thing happens in the video game industry. Most consumers don't read these blogs and don't stay up all night waiting for announcements out of Japan. They buy gaming systems for completely different reasons than the zealots who haunt these type of discussions.
You guys who are still in denial over the Wii pricing and launch bungle are not really looking at the much larger picture and are instead focusing on a fan-view of what is going on.
Horus @ Sep 15th 2006 3:54PM
I'm really pissed off b/c of what Nintendo did.
I get the 250$ price point, but 250 euros and 180 GBP, and the games; 49-59 euros?!
In my vision I saw myself playing the X360 (i know, I'm a fanboy), but facing the reallity I acknoledged that IF I will to get my hands on a "next gen" (I don't like that phrase. A next gen for me is like moving from tapes to discs not moving from discs to fancy discs and fancy graphics) console, and not like in 3 years from now, it would be the Wii. But I'm starting to rethink that maybe I'm gonna wait for a while.
Andy @ Sep 15th 2006 3:57PM
Hmmm: who gives a sh*t? Seriously. I have a 360 already, I don't see what the big deal is. I can't believe Sony screwed up their PR campaign so badly that the crappy GameCube-with-New-Controller is out-hyping it.
gameclu @ Sep 15th 2006 3:58PM
I'll make two more predictions:
1. Wii will outsell the PS3 this xmas.
2. Wii will be the first of the three systems to hit the magic $200 price point.
name: @ Sep 15th 2006 4:00PM
u want a prediction........the wii is gonna do a lot worse than its hyped up to do and heres some answers to some fanboy arguments
1. the wii will do good cuz the parents are gonna go for the cheaper system
A. ya keep wishing no matter how much you deny it kids will always get what they want....i know parents who got 3 kids and each of them got a 300 dollar ipod for christmas so there.
2.the wii is gonna sell becuz there wont be no ps3 on the shelves,
A.well that would first be a good thing for the ps3 cuz it means it sold out and that means ppl want it and second are you expecting the wii not to sell out?
and so heres a lil buying guide for the actual non fanboys
ps3-if you want better graphics
xbox-if you want the ultimate online play
wii-if you want fun party games that you can play with your family(which i doubt anyone even spends time with there families anymore)
ya and you can call me whatever you want but the fact is you dont know me and you cant judge me
Evan @ Sep 15th 2006 4:08PM
The "Channels" and iPhoto-clone were a surprise. No one guessed that. I think we under-value the software because it's not a hard-cost, however it looks very impressive for a company's first real Dashboard.
Paul Gale @ Sep 15th 2006 4:13PM
Next up is the amount of units available day one per territory:
America: 700,000
Japan: 700,000
Europe: 500,000
Australia: 100,000
(That's what I heard as a possible launch set up quite a while ago, though it doesn't seem accurate nowadays).
Nintendo said that United States would get the bulk.
America: 900,000
Japan: 600,000
Europe: 400,000
Australia: 100,000
(That's my guesstimate).
Paul Gale
1up.com
Comtar @ Sep 15th 2006 4:19PM
I would like the origin of all 78 articles, and I'm willing to bet the 12 who said $250 were from more accurate and credible sources... not some anonymous post in an EA forum, nor 7-11. No one has learned when a business person tells you "Under $250" they mean $249.99. Just like when you watch the news they say, "Gas is again under $3", yeah it's 2.97.... big whoop dee do!
All of my friends were looking forward to the $250 price and none of us were surprised. A 360 is $400, a Wii is $250. I think that's great.
Oh and before anyone goes, "Well the X-box you are comparing it to is the Premium 360, you can get an X-box 360 for $300." Oh really? And what exactly can you do with the X-box 360 for the $300? Can I download and purchase old games off XBL? Or even download the backwards compatible software needed for EVERY SINGLE GAME YOU OWN. NO! You need the hard drive for that, it's common knowledge that without the hard drive, the X-box 360 is just a device that plays games, kinda like the Gamecube. Perhaps some of you fucktards will get the $150 fucking price tag you are looking for on the Wii if they release a version alot like the X-box 360 core system that can't download old Nintendo games from Connect 24, and can't play old Gamecube games.
Your argument is flawed.
minus_273 @ Sep 15th 2006 4:25PM
mean huh? wouldnt the median make more sense here. if everyone predicted it was 249 and one idiot said it would be 60000 does that make sense? It looked to me like most people predicted 249 and a few people predicted less to lower the mean.
Korexz @ Sep 15th 2006 4:47PM
I STILL say that Nintendo isn't telling us everything. I have a feeling that they are going to announce Dreamcast games for the Virtual Console. That makes the $249 price easier to swallow.
Covarr @ Sep 15th 2006 5:19PM
Gavin, there was a huge difference with the Dreamcast's launch: It was WAY too early. It launched an entire year early, and was undermarketed (as is often the case with Sega), so a lot of people thought of it as a previous-gen console along with N64 and PS1. The PS2, however, was marketed specifically to be "next-gen", so that everything before it was thought to be outdated. If the Dreamcast had spent an extra year in development, it would have been slightly more powerful, slightly less expensive, and had a much greater shot at surviving the console wars this gen. The Wii doesn't have that problem as much, because it is launching last, but still in time for the holiday season.
Gavin @ Sep 15th 2006 5:24PM
Hey Covarr, so the DC wasn't truely next-gen and was marketed as such just like the Wii? Sounds like the same major mistake to me.
Casey @ Sep 15th 2006 5:26PM
Has anybody heard anything about whether or not it will play DVD's? I have a crappy TV with only one set of A/V inputs and I really hope it does.
Covarr @ Sep 15th 2006 5:30PM
No, the DC was next gen, but they released it too early so people thought it wasn't.
Brandon @ Sep 15th 2006 5:31PM
Gavin: You can't compare the Wii and DC for several reasons. 1)The Wii's controller is a lot better than the DC's. I'm not gonna say it's innovative, because it's not(the tech's been used before), but it's different, and THAT'S what the news outlets are going to latch on to. Shortages are just a part of system launches now; the only people who care are the ones who don't get their consoles. 2)The world's ready for the Wii. When the DC came out, people were still happy with their older gen consoles. What's more, the main gimmick for the DC, it's internet connection, was pretty much null, since no one had broadband connections yet. On the Wii's side, though, it's coming out in the same time frame as the other consoles, and most, if not all of the tech in it is stuff people have seen before and are comfortable with.
PS Oh, and please don't say the PSP is keeping up with the DS and sales. It isn't.
Jake @ Sep 15th 2006 5:42PM
"blurp...pffft...random rectal noises...ya and you can call me whatever you want but the fact is you dont know me and you cant judge me"
-name
I know you enough to say that you are under 14 and/or urban. And how can you expect not to be judged when you pass ignorant judgements on others. Dorky azz lil' fanboy. That could be your street name, lil' fanboy.
navstar @ Sep 15th 2006 5:43PM
One aspect of the Wii's price people aren't getting is that it gives Nintendo room to *lower prices* in the future. When the 360 drops $50, Nintendo would have been painted into a corner and couldn't drop the price without cutting selling the Wii at a loss (or at least less of a profit).
All Your Lost Socks @ Sep 15th 2006 5:54PM
Good point, minus_273. I know I for one guessed $199, but you are right - the median would have been more appropriate, and probably would have showed more accuracy.
And people wondered why we were learning that back in High School...
greg @ Sep 15th 2006 6:14PM
I do believe the DC was next gen look back at crazy taxi and 2k games crazy barely has jagged lines. just reference point. I believe next gen is anytime you go to the next step SNES was "next gen" It almost doubled in every area except price. but this time the wii isnt a X2 of the gamecube but the price is higher I personally the wii will go on just like the GC a Niche/novelty console not a killer app type console. I dont hate ninty i just dont look at them through rose colored glasses. I judge all consoles by the same standard and one thing i notice they have Hardcore fans... I dont have a psp or a DS the hardware team failed because the 2 screens and stylus are a novelty. Not saying that the psp is better but more could hve been accomplished with one big screen instead of two....most games just use one as a map....That's not groundbreaking or great its just something developer had to do to use the other screen. 1st party as usual saved nintendos ass....which tends to be the case with case the software side of nintendo usually makes the money for them id like to see both put forth the effort to do something great, not just software....because just like hardware, software isnt everything