Last year around this time Forrester Research predicted that Blu-ray would triumph over HD-DVD. They reiterated that opinion (paid access only) on Thursday, noting that Blu-ray will win because it's got:
- Greater manufacturing support
- More movie titles
- A great distribution vector (PlayStation 3)
- Greater storage capacity (making it more useful in the long run)
Still, Forrester's calling BRD's ultimate triumph a pyrrhic victory because the war between BRD and HD-DVD "will significantly slow down adoption of standalone players." Furthermore Forrester's analysts believe that "neither HD-DVD nor Blu-ray will flourish until consumers think they see a winner."
Forrester doesn't acknowledge the elephant in the room: If it takes too long for a "clear winner" to emerge, alternate delivery formats (such as digital distribution) may leapfrog both Blu-ray and HD-DVD.
Those with skin in the game (we don't envy you) may also want to check out Forrester's framework for predicting format success. The good news is that both camps have some levers they can use to affect the outcome of the format war. The bad news is that both camps have some levers they can use to affect the outcome of the format war.