Blu-ray will beat HD-DVD, says Forrester (again)

Has anyone seen a Blu-Ray movie playing on the PS3 yet? I mean it comes out in a month, yet I've heard nothing about its capability as a blu-ray player.

This suggests one of two things to me, either people arent that interested or Sony aren't keen to show it off for some reason.

I doubt that the $500 Games machine will beat the Samsung $1000 standalone Blu-Ray player.

@100

why not? they are priced differently. PS3 is sold at a loss, and the samsung player is sold at a nice profit. for all we know PS3 might actually cost MORE to manufacture.

the samsung player may have more features, but doesnt mean PS3 wont have just as high quality video/audio. MOST people who watch dvds, only use the basic functions anyways like chapter select, etc etc. most people dont even use the complex features the more expensive players ahve anyways.

Blu-Ray wins for me :)

Actually I dont know about yall,
but my local walmart sells both
blu-rays and hddvd movies for $19.84
witha exception of the movie dinosaurs,
which is sold for $24.34 I believe.
Which in some cases is the exact same price
they charge on new some new release dvds...

Through if you go to there online site the
prices seem to vary, but what I do recall
from the store there were more blu-ray movies
being displayed, course to counter that at the
time they had no blu-ray player for sale...

@101

why not?

Because to make a very good high-def DVD player you would have to sacrifice in other areas. Things that have to just do one job, tend to do them better than hardware that tries to do too much. Else we would all have TV's with DVD players, stereo's etc.. built-in.

When building a standalone unit you need to make no compromise, no need to cram everything into such a small package that won't be needed for blu-ray movies (such as networking, HDD etc..). Put it this way, do you watch DVD's on your mini-hifi or on a standalone dvd player.

There hasn't been a 50GB Blu-Ray (or non MPEG-2) disc released yet and so far every HD DVD looks better, so your already starting with a stunted library. HD-DVD movies are way outselling Blu-Ray movies because they simply look better.

I'm sure this is down to the encoding, which Blu-Ray may fix at a later date, yet they haven't seen fit to do it yet, which speaks volumes about whether they are trying to produce great looking movies or cash in.

I will be buying a HD-DVD player or two, if it fails then I will have to end up using the poorer format (Blu-Ray). Regardless I don't see the PS3 being the WIN for Blu-Ray, people who will buy High Def movies just don't come off as the sort of people that want to surf through a games machine with a joypad to watch movies.

Only some films could actually benefit from the upgrade to a hi-def format. ALMOST anything pre 1990 would be pointless to buy in hi-def. . . unless you are really that interested in getting a better representation of the inherent grain in the film itself. Just like the futility in "upconverting". . . you cannot make the final image appear any better than the source.

@104

What are you talking about, Film has an almost infinite (by todays standard) resolution, it would be easy to go upto at least 3840x2160 resolution from film.

In regards to film grain, it can be removed or digitally touched up but actually looks better left in place.

There are technologies that will complement digital distribution and cut back on DVD (HD-DVD, Blu-ray, DVD-9) usage. I'll leave it up to the professionals to come up with the specifics, but inexpensive USB drives that can hold several hundred high-definition movies with extras mean that everyone in the family can have their own movie collection (and a backup). These USB drives can then connect to TVs through USB directly or through a converter.

When digital distribution gets big, you better believe there will be ways to utilize it that will make discs obsolete.

"how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?" ~ Smirky

Ummm... I'm gonna say... Seven? That sound right? Anyone?

I would be interested to see who doesn't like Blu-Ray just for the fact that Sony is backing it. If you actually look at the 2 formats there are fairly clear cut advantages and disadvantages to each.

Picture quality right now is negligable between the two and really a moot point because they are just a medium for storage of data. They can both handle the same codecs.

Blu-Ray is larger. 25gb per layer compared to 15 for HD-DVD.

Blu-Ray, despite earlier problems with scratching, worked with TDK to develop a very good coating making it the most scratch-resistant optical medium.

Blu-Ray has more industry support. More hardware, software, movie studio, etc...

Blu-Ray has the porn industries support (A huge factor in why they lost the Beta v VHS war)

HD-DVD is cheaper to produce right now due to it's closer similarity to DVD resulting in a easier production transition. This will even out as Blu-Ray's production costs drop.

HD-DVD has "less" DRM. Blu-Ray has a digital watermark, but both fall under the ICT broadcast flag and require HDCP, have a physical layer of copy protection, and AACS.

HD-DVD players are cheaper right now. Of course with early adopters $500 or $1000 isn't a big deal and the average consumer isn't going to risk even $500 on a possible losing format player.

As I made this list I realized it started to sound somewhat Blu-Ray-sided. But that is my point. If you really look at what each has to offer Blu-Ray is better. But then again yelling at each other because of some personal vendetta against Sony seems to be the SOP around here.

David

Your analysis misrepresents some important facts;

- HD DVD's currently offer better picture quality than blu-ray.

- HD DVD's are currently 30GB whilst Blu-Ray movies are currently 25Gb

- The HD DVD spec is very tight, with all players having Internet connection so that they can download upgrades. Whilst the Blu-Ray spec is a)secret and b)doesn't make sure that all Blu-Ray players offer the same basic features.

- HD DVD movies are outselling Blu-Ray movies by a considerable margin.

- There is already HD-DVD Porn yet I have yet to see any Blu-Ray Porn.

- The first 100-200 Blu-Ray titles are stunted by the use of 25GB (as apposed to HD DVD's 30GB) and the use of MPEG2 as the encoder, less space plus worse compression = poorer picture quality. Who wants a stunted library?

- The scratch resistant coating is very expensive to apply and not commercially tested as of yet.

- Very high return rate on blu-ray players sold so far, this is not good.

This will be a long tough figt but I think HD-DVD will endge out BD.

1) HD-DVDs will include DVD content (lend it to a friend)
2) HD-DVDs cost less to manufacture because of similarity to DVD manufacturing process
3) BD Drives are slower (Especially if you'r going to stream compessed contect, like games)
4) HD-DVD movies will cost less in the long run. Movies will go down in price faster than BD movies will.
5) HD-DVD players will go down in price faster than BD because of similar component and manufacturing.

Why is Xbox360 HD-DVD drive a good value?
1) Upscaling of regular dvds -- upto 1080p.
2) $200 - same price of a great upscaling dvd player (Oppo) but also plays HD-DVD.
3) You know MSFT will have some tricks up its sleaves regarding Xbox360 and dashboard updates. I bet they could release HDMI, firmware to allow games to be loaded from HD-DVD... etc etc.

BD will have a huge install base by the end of 2007, but time will only tell. I would say the HD-DVD has a ton of moementum, but one little falter, they'll lose their lead to Sony... in a heartbeat.

I still have my issues with Blu-ray, namely that while the disc format may hold more the load times are really, really, really slow. I remember back in the days with PlayStation 1 was plagued by constant load times. Couldn't they fix this?

Whatever format becomes more popular with pornography with win... always does.

Say I'm wrong!

Brian -

Then BluRay already lost. The porn industry has released HD-DVD titles.

If forced to guess, between the two, Blu-Ray is going to be the eventual winner...not that I want it to be, I think a Sony-controlled format (rather than a DVD Forum endorsed format like HD-DVD is) is terrible for the industry.

But you have to look at the facts. Yes, the early adopters/hardcore fans are saying HD-DVD is better as far as picture quality so far. Yes, HD-DVD has sold more standalone units so far. However:

*Look at your Circuit City flyer this week - two page spread on Blu Ray, no HD-DVD to be found.

*Best Buy has signs that say something like "looks great with Blu-Ray" in their HDTV section, no mention of HD-DVD.

*The PS3 will be a huge boost to Blu-Ray sales.

*Microsoft's counter, the 360's add-on HD-DVD player, is not taken seriously by the people most likely to buy it (home theater enthusiasts) because there is no HDMI support, which will be required to get Microsoft's much-promoted 1080p for movies on most HDTVs. Component only gives you 1080p for games.

*Go ask around with your less-hardcore friends..."have you heard of HD-DVD or Blu-Ray?" Chances are, they'll say Blu-Ray. They have just done a better job of getting to the public consciousness thus far.


I hope it turns around and HD-DVD wipes the floor with them, but I seriously doubt that's going to happen.

For those saying Digital Distribution will win miss the point that people like owning stuff. They like to be able to phsycially transport an item from room to room, to take their movie to their friend's house. Digital distribution will not allow that. Even if you can save it to a hard drive (unlikely if the studios have their way), it will most likely be locked to the player it was saved to, meaning it looses all transportability. People will always want a physical item to carry around. Since ATT/SBC won't add a FIoS like system, only people in Verizon areas will ever have the bandwidth to distribute a full HD movie with full bonus features to customers (and don't even mention ATT/SBC's joke Lightspeed, as that doesn't go into the home).
HD-DVD can never win as it will never have Sony, FOX, MGM or Columbia titles. If it gets a big enough lead, Disney might support it. Fox will not support HD-DVD, if Blu-Ray fails, Fox will wait until the next format to come along. I would guess MGM, Columbia, Sony and all other Sony owned studios will wait as well. That represents a far bigger chunk of movies that will forever be exclusive to Blu-Ray. Yes, it sucks that it is a Sony product, but it is the far better thought out product. Already HD-DVD is maxing out its dual layer capacity, with only one more layer to go to give it some more breathing room. Even at 3 layers it has less then Blu-Ray has at 2. It is looking like Blu-Ray won't even have enough space until it has 3 and 4 layer discs out.
As to the comment that HD-DVD has better compression so doesn't need the space. Compression isn't your friend. The idea is to have less compression. Some of us won't be happy until they can do Motion RAW with uncompressed audio.
As for Blu-Ray being buggy, that seems largely due to the player that is out there right now. Until Sony and the others get their players out, it won't be a fair judgment. Let's not forget it took a few firmware upgrades to make HD-DVD as bug free as it is now.
In the end, Blu-Ray has greater manufacturer support and far better studio support. Once both players start hitting prices that normal people can afford, and by that point, HD TV's should be affordable (not the crappy flat panel stuff which I wouldn't pay even a dollar for, as those won't reach that kind of price range for a while yet, but LCoS and DLP projection systems should be semi-affordable by then), once they hit an affordable level, the average consumer will see that Blu-Ray has greater title depth.
As much as I hate Sony, Blu-Ray will win. Digital distribution lacks ownership ability, transportability, and most of all, most people will never have the bandwidth. After all, few of those even those lucky enough to live in Verizon's areas have moved to FIoS. While all of us who read this would upgrade to FIoS the moment it was available (never for some of us in ATT/SBC's area), a large percentage of the public probably never would. The only way for Blu-Ray to loose is for the holographic format wars to end in time, and for them to get the price down to a consumer level, both of which is unlikely before there there is a clear winner in the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD war. The dark horse would be a flash/hard drive based solution if they can get the capacity, size and cost to a reasonable consumer friendly format.

Just for reference:

Support != available titles

Support != quality titles

Because a few more actual studios promise more films, it is the quality that really matters. I know that quality is subjective, but even subjectively, some studios are more quality than others. Take Sony for instance. Their stuios tend to average about 24 movies per year. However, the bigger indicator is how much money they make. In non-Spider-Man years, their overall cut of the yearly Hollywood take is rather low. Spider-Man tends to make about half of Sony's total yearly averages. The only consistently high-quality studio from the standpoint of the average consumer solid BluRay is Fox. Apart from Sony, the rest are faltering and are considering moving into HD-DVD. Universal is a much more consistent stuido than Sony, and about equal to Fox. The war really comes down to wether Universal or Fox can get their films out faster. Universal is winning.

Support also doesn't corrolate into availability. Actual statistics show that the HD-DVD studios are doing a far better job of getting films out on the marketplace. There are simply more HD-DVD titles available and there are more that are actually in production and will be released soon. Based on trends, the difference between actual available titles is only widening, giving HD-DVD a larger advantage. A promise doesn't mean much if there isn't a delivery.

The bulk of the BluRay support right now comes from the "We're thinking BluRay will win, but will hold off until the winner is actually clear" camp. HD-DVD supporters are more likely to actually jump into the fray and sell product. BluRay supporters are waiting for BluRay to win. BluRay won't win because the majority of its support base isn't doing anything, which is making the BluRay vs HD-DVD battle a battle between Sony and Universal, and Universal is in a far better position to win that given they've got a stronger studio and are more aggressive in releasing actual, tangible titles.

The industry is forcing HD and blue-ray down our throats is piracy. I can copy and ol dvd. can they copy HD and BR yet? if not then the answer is piracy, or at least to switch things up and make it harder to copy.....so in short, they will fire tom cruise and ditch DVD in order to save money.

There's no way that anyone really knows.

btw, neither HD-DVD nor BD are near their maximum capacity. There will be a time that there's more space than necessary... then there will be an era where there won't be enough space or bandwidth for that matter...

Anywho.. it doesn't completely matter about maximum capacity while both standards hold plenty of information with plenty room to grow. What will matter is adoptablity. You have to consider all the points (yes, some people absolutely refuse to consider all parts of the equation and often view things through tunnel vision).

Look at current price points, available titles today and what will be available tomorrow. Look into how these discs are manufactured, look into the cost of the equipment needed to manufacture these discs, look into how much it will take to convert current plants to be able to output these new technologies.

It's clear that the moment (although small) is on HD-DVD's side. HD-DVD isn't marketing with all their strength right now so BD is mopping that camp up in that corner.

I'd say that we won't be able to start seeing a winner until company's report their financial during spring. If Sony can push out 6 million units and hope that the majority of that install base has a reason to purchase BD movies (they have HD and good selection of titles), they'll clearly dominate. Future proofing technology (at least I have a BD player when I do.. "Eventually" get a HDTV)doesn't ensure survivability. Saying you can do something today or giving consumers choice with reasonable pricepoints "Could" be a nail in Sony's coffin. MSFT selling a $200 drive that upscales current DVD and outputs to 1080p seems interesting, but the price of standalone players need to go below $300... I have a feeling that will be sooner than we all think. imho

I guess the HD-DVD camp is formulating a marketing strategy as we speak... it'll be interesting to see how "All of Sony's recent problems" have altered their course... we all know it did, but how?

Everyone seems to be forgetting that the Best Buys, Circuit City's, Comp USA's, Fry's etc of the world hold no retail candle to the power of Wal Mart. The consumer base power of Wal Mart will heavily decide the outcome of the HD format war and lets just be honest with each other, how many Wal Mart consumers are gonna plop down $1k for a HD player when there's one for less than $500. The average consumer (the ones who will decide who wins this bullshit war) are going to be the price conscious ones and well, HD-DVD is cheaper and you get the same picture of Blu Ray. Forget all the size bs, it's not about how big your disc is, it's about what it's worth.

this suxs man tities man just make one fucking format plz

a big market right now is the ability to record your own hd content. dvd recorders have just recently taken off and hard disk recorders - but there is no practical way to record and store hd content. blu ray is coming out with 50gb dual layer disks, very nice for this purpose, especially compared to hd-dvd disks at 30gb. furthermore, blu ray has a potential size of 200gbs on a single disk while hd-dvd has 60gbs.

and for your information, the top pc supplier is dell (something like 3/5 pcs are dell), they are supporting blu ray. they will ship will blu ray drives. hp is another big pc manufacturor supporting blu ray, they will also ship with blu ray drives some time.

in the audio video market, companies like sony, phillips, samsung, panosonic have a notoriously big reputation. they are the leaders, the pioneers of this market and they are all supporting blu ray. consumers equate these brands to quality.

blu ray has much more support in the movie industry. this will mean more content and generally more blu ray movies. so blu ray will be offering more selecton and content to the consumer.

lastly ps3. every ps3 sold will mean a blu ray player sold, a potential blu ray customers. i mean 2 million blu ray players into peoples houses by the end of the year through ps3 sales alone. that is already a huge step...considering toshiba find it hard to sell in the 1000s. over the course of the generatoin, im pretty sure people will buy movies for for the ps3.

and sony used dvd for ps2. dvd was the next technology and had a tiny customer base. there is no doubt ps2 propelled the success of dvd.

BLU-RAY has hundreds of companies backing it. Especially big manufactures, I.E. Pioneer, Panasonic, JVC, Samsung, RCA, Philips, and more. You also have more movie studios backing BLU-RAY. Unfortunately, HD-DVD has Microsoft and Toshiba. Manufactures love Blu-Ray, as a new technology stand point. Computers, such as Gateway, Dell, etc... are starting to release Blu-Ray drives and recordable drives on their labtops and desktops. It's a clear choice, the answer is not will HD-DVD fail, just when.

Digital Playground (the LARGEST distributer of adult films) is backing Blu-Ray and has said they will launch movies on Blu-Ray right after the PS3 is released.

wow, I didn't realize so many people have actually bought a HDTV capable device, a Blu-Ray reader, a HD-DVD reader and a PS3. So many well thought out, concise and unemotional responses remind me of some intelligent fanboi sites I sometimes read. :) Surely those same geniuses could not be posting on joystiq? haha.

If you are going to make a call on something, leave your past experiences of being burned by one bad customer service experience at the door. Oh yeah and if you are willing to go on the record for what a company has failed at doing, be prepared to hear what good it's done as well.

Accept that MS and Sony have had great products that has changed peoples lives and also have had extremely poor products that have cost people their jobs. It's a fact of life people.

That being said, enjoy whatever console or media format that you are going to buy. Personally, I don't know if Blu-Ray or HD-DVD is going to win but I do know I'm going to buy a PS3 and a Wii. Sorry, but I'm not going to froth at the mouth and rant like some of the mutants do on here but I'm human and I do have preferences. ;) The Xbox360 will have it's market share too and there is no doubt to that - enjoy your console and spend less time spreading hate like a zealot.

my 2 cents

I like the guy who said the name was hard! LOL! Hd-DVD is definetly easier to say and spell, what are you a retard? People don't care about that, and how hard is it to say Blu-ray...moron.

All I can say to the people using the current market as the projection for the winner is: You are dumb.

There has been about... hmm 6 months of HD-DVD vs 4 months of Blu-ray. It'll take just 7% of the USA launch ps3 buyers to go out and buy a blu-ray disc to match the number of households with a HD-DVD player right now. Blu-ray can use the same codecs as HD-DVD, just the early release studios made a decision not to use vc-1, they are starting to use it now. The 50gb Blu-rays are beginning to come out, remember blu-ray is still 2 months behind hd-dvd, can't expect progression at the same rate. Companies are not going to start flip-flopping their entire backing strategy after 4months of competition, especially when the ps3 drops in about a month. You heard that they are planning on flip-flopping ever since janurary? The shit hasn't been out that long!

Those saying there will be as many HD-DVD adopters on the 360 as people that will use their blu-ray player is also dumb. The difference here, is on one hand you ask someone to go out and buy something extra that costs $200 vs someone going out and spending $5 on a disc.

I can hear it now - "Hmm, I already have a blu-ray player, and the disc is only $5 more, might as well"

Like it or not, the determining factor is going to be the PS3. If even a small percent of those with a PS3 decide to purchase a Blu-ray disc instead of its DVD counterpart, its over. If they don't, then its a fair game.

Digital distribution will NOT take over as mainstream anytime soon.

I consider HD-DVD the underdog so I can't help but root for it. But I really HATE this format war crap, it just means consumers get the shaft. I have a feeling the PS3 will not be as big a factor as some people think.

I would think dirt cheap players and dual-format DVD's would win the war more than anything.

Well I am a huge PS3 fanboy, and I honestly think that the way they worked thing's out with the 360 is really smart. The PS3 basically gives you no choice but to use the Blue-Ray format. In the 360's case, if HD-DVD just so happens to lose the farmat war, they will just switch over to Blue-Ray. If you even choose to go HD-DVD, thats also what I think is smart, they give you a choice. The people with the Playstation's like myself, will will own a useless Blue-Ray, if HD-DVD wins the war. I just hope it's not like when they released the PS2. There were so many defects, and Sony actually made people pay to fix them, or buy a new PS2. That's one of the reason's why Playstation 2 had soooo many consoles sold. Once they fixed there problems with the console, it bacame a greate piece of hardware. So I'm crossing my fingers that I wont have any problems with my ps3. I'm thinking of waiting about a year to purchase one just to see what happens.

I'm sorry but you're wrong, Sony did not charge people to fix their PS2s if the DVD player was faulty.
I bought mine in April 2001, I got it replaced for free in Spring of 2003 when I was fed up with how many DVDs would not play properly.
Since getting a free replacement I have not had one DVD unable to play.

I think HD-DVD will win, yes Blu-Ray has 20Gb more space but to be honest not many even care. When it comes to Computer games they still using DVD's and havnt filled one disk up yet so normal DVD has still got a few more years left then it will move onto HD-DVD which has 30Gb Space and i cant see that getting filled up for many years.
Also like to note if the Blu-Ray loses people have bought a PS3 will be hitting themselfs.

About MiniDisc being a failure: I work in the Broadcast Industry (Radio) and we STILL use MiniDisc for archiving commercials, sweepers, promos etc. MD is a fantastic format and even though their pre-recorded discs never took off, it was (and still is) VERY successful as a digital recording medium. And before you HD DVD fanboys come back with a comment about me working for a po-dunk station that uses inferior products. Let me tell you up front: I worked for stations in Grand Rapids, Michigan as well as Detroit (the 10th largest radio market) and they are still using their MiniDisc units today.

I don't mean to ramble on; it just irritates me that people talk smack without knowing what the heck they're talking about.

I support Blu Ray and believe it will beat HD DVD but I really would like to see what happens between the two formats in the next few months.

"Dual-sides DVDs. Has HD-DVD on one side, and DVD on the other. Great value for consumers so they won't have to buy the same movie twice. Blu-ray can't do this."

Ummm, yes it can. Do some research first.

http://www.jvc-victor.co.jp/english/press/2004/bd-dvd.html

"HD-DVD has a better name than BluRay. With the name "HD DVD", people are gonna immediately recognize that it's just like a DVD, only with the capability to store high definition content. With "Blu-Ray"...well, the normal person isn't gonna know what to think. They might think it's a blue manta ray or something.

It's also harder to mispell "HD-DVD." Sure, some might forget the hyphen, but that's not as annoying as adding an "e" to Blu-ray."

'HD-DVD' also happens to be a mouthful to say in a conversation, compared to simply BD, BRD, or 'Blu Ray' which is two syllables long. How many times can you say 'HD-DVD' before you look for an even further abbreviation to it? Just 'HD' or 'DVD' won't do. You need the whole 'HD-DVD' or else you'll mistake it for another product.

'Have you seen Pirates 2? I think I'll rent the HD-DVD. ' Just too awkward to mention, and too long for an abbreviation. But it beats High Definition Digital Video Disc.

Blu Ray is a weird name, but people will come to accept it, just like Nintendo Wii.

"HD-DVD will win simply due to its name. The general population is familiar with the terms HD and DVD. When you mention Blu-Ray, they go "wtf is that?"."


Not necessarily. 'DVD' was a new name also. It did not contain 'VHS' in its name even though it was a successor. People adopted it anyway. They could have called it SD-VHS to eliminate confusion. But people accepted it. HD-DVD also happens to be longer to say or type than BD. Five syllables! Six characters! Try having a serious conversation with someone and needing to actually say that thing several times.

If you think name is all that's needed to win a format war, you're sadly mistaken.

YOU ARE ALL MORONS