Japanese PS3 interest rising (or "this is what happens when you price drop")

by Blake Snow { Oct 9th 2006 at 3:15PM }

Regardless of your thoughts on the PS3's US$500-600 launch price, the move is unprecedented for a Sony game console. Therefore, it's a no-brainer that so many peeps have lost early adoption aspirations for the Blu-ray computer/game system, Japanese gamers included.

But after Sony dropped the PS3 price to about $425 (tax included) in Japan, the interest-tide has changed in terms of pre-launch anticipation. Japan-based ITmedia reports via a survey that asks what console the Japanese public intend to purchase by year's end. The results are as follows:

40%: Wii
39%: PS3
16%: Xbox 360
3%: Other

I'm no statistician, but it appears that 2% of people didn't vote.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

soma @ Oct 9th 2006 3:21PM

39% even though there aren't any good launch titles? Sony will only pick up steam in 2007.

VampireHunter Z @ Oct 9th 2006 3:23PM

If the 360 can grab that much share in Japan then they could operate at a profit.

Artimus @ Oct 9th 2006 3:25PM

Ummm...how is this proof of interest rising? In order for it to be...rising...you would need an older poll by the same group showing less interest. All this shows is that a certain percentage of this survey claim they're going to buy a certain console.

And yes, you're definitely no statistician, because if you were you'd know the 2% "missing" is due to rounding, not anything actually missing. But the fact you're not a statistician didn't stop you from pretending to be and totally misreading a poll now did it?

Craigo @ Oct 9th 2006 3:26PM

Any info on the survey methodology? 16% seems too high for 360.

Freddy @ Oct 9th 2006 3:27PM

Is that the price for the 30 GB version?

pandlcg @ Oct 9th 2006 3:29PM

Artimus, if you read the link you would realize that they were indeed comparing this to an earlier pole by Gamaga which showed only twenty percent of respondents intent on buying the ps3.

My question is how many people were poled? Are 100k units enough to satisfy that 39%?

KR @ Oct 9th 2006 3:30PM

Holy crap, if that's a 360 number that turns out to be reasonably accurate, then that is the real news here.

Craigo @ Oct 9th 2006 3:31PM

3: To be fair, I've worked in opinion research, and every poll I've seen contains a number of respondents who answer "Don't know" or something similar.

But you're right about the lack of trend lines - or any of the information you need to make a real analysis.

Probot @ Oct 9th 2006 3:31PM

Freddy,

That's the price for the 20GB version. Sony is letting retailers set the price for the 60GB version.

teknomusik @ Oct 9th 2006 3:32PM

Let's see 39% of them buy a PS3 when Japan is only getting 100,000 units.

BklynKid @ Oct 9th 2006 3:35PM

Boooo!

Don't you ever post positive PS3 news again!

LaughingTarget @ Oct 9th 2006 3:38PM

This looks to be a very good poll. ITmedia seems to have a broader base to poll from and used real randomization of the broader population, not a voluntary mail-in option that generated a non-set number of results. The best polls hit roughly 1.5 thousand people, and are best conducted by approaching the polling target, not asking them to partake in a voting scheme.

However, they are missing an important option - not getting any of them. This means it still sounds to be more gamer centric, given that 97-98% of all the respondants actually plan on getting one of the units. Even in Japan, 98% of the population isn't playing video games.

Patrick @ Oct 9th 2006 3:47PM

What i'm interested in, is what's the 3% for?

Petey @ Oct 9th 2006 3:48PM

Now what poll must we believe??? The one that says 40% will buy a Wii or the one that says that 65% will buy a Wii???
To pandlcg, in order to compare 2 polls they must be done wiht the same "modus operandi", since the polls were done by 2 different sources, the comparison fails...

Rask @ Oct 9th 2006 3:49PM

Didn't sony state at one point that there would only about 20% of the initial shipment that would be the 20GB version with the locked price and 80% would be the "retailer plz gouge me" 60GB pack?

Jerm @ Oct 9th 2006 4:11PM

Um, has anyone talked about the fact that Japan gets a price break, but we still have to pay $499 and $599? Or will Sony PR soon come out and say: American gamers don't mind paying higher prices for their consoles?

bubba shrimp @ Oct 9th 2006 4:13PM

Wow...360 interest seems to have drastically gained in Japan. That is the real story here.

Flash @ Oct 9th 2006 4:16PM

soma

no good games, the ps3 is not even out yet and it already has better games than the 360.

epobirs @ Oct 9th 2006 4:41PM

Agreed, that 16% for the Xbox 360 is quite a surprise. Perhaps the Blue Dragon bundle, along with other items like Lost Odyssey, is creating some buzz. If that translated to just 4% actually buying the machine it would be a mammoth gain and mean a lot more Japanese games for us in the West.

RoroCo @ Oct 9th 2006 4:44PM

Flash... really?

RoroCo @ Oct 9th 2006 4:48PM

epobirs... Agreed. Also coupling the fact that MS has a real chance of fulfilling the 16% demand. And that Sony will not even have enough consoles (especially the 20G version)to fill even the 25% of their demand this year.

It might still be a long year for Sony...

If Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon pan out...MS might gain some needed market share in Japan.

Not holding my breathe though.

_habit_ @ Oct 9th 2006 5:09PM

The rest of the PS3-getting world need to start up the price-bitching train, and get them to lower the price elsewhere!

P.S. If price drop has been announced elsewhere ... well, I had not even heard of Japanese price drop until now >_>

Pal @ Oct 9th 2006 5:13PM

Talked about the PS3 with my mom the other day. At first she was a bit shocked at the price, but then found it a great deal since Blue-Ray is included. Since she bought a 42" 720p Plasma, it seals the deal. Too bad she lives in Japan and doesn't need a video game system.

Figboy @ Oct 9th 2006 5:26PM

of course no one would ever think that the reason why interest spiked in the PS3 after TGS was because they showed off some very promising titles there.

Resistance, Heavenly Sword, Devil May Cry 4, Afrika (couldn't resist putting that one there), Gundam, White Knight Story, Metal Gear Solid 4 (actual gameplay), Ninja Gaiden Sigma (a lot of Playstation fans didn't get to play that one. so it's big news), and others.

i don't know why people across the net seem to have a hard time admitting it, but Sony had a *good* TGS. the price drop and inclusion of HDMI across all units were just the icing on the cake.

at TGS, Sony showed that, yes, we are actually making a *games* console, albiet one aimed for the older gamer (the average gamer is 18-30, and the 15 year olds that bought a PS2 back in 2000, are 20/21 now. most of them have jobs, and buy their own gaming systems now, instead of relying on mom and dad. personally, my hardcore gaming didn't kick in until i was 18 and got my first job. before, i had to rely on birthdays and Christmas, and even then, my mom couldn't afford to get me many video games. i went batshit when i realized i could buy my own. it was a gaming extravaganza, that's for sure).

anyway, my point is that Sony did good at TGS. they redeemed themselves in a lot of jaded people's eyes. and i do wish people would stop forgetting that there is a $500 PS3 that includes pretty much all the necessities (no one really *needs* the Wi Fi and SD Slots, and 40 extra gigs of HD space is nice, but not entirely necessary). the $600 PS3 is really a luxury unit, but not everybody needs it.

i mean, the people that bought the premium 360, and are also planning on buying the $200 HD DVD drive would have saved themselves $100 if they just bought the $500 PS3, which comes with the Blu Ray drive built in ( i won't even get into how Blu Ray has waaaay more support from studios and everyone else than HD DVD, so eventually, there will be more movies on Blu Ray than HD DVD, even if it doesn't seem that way yet).

as much as i love gaming, and all consoles, i've been in a Sony crusading mood, as there are still some tenacious reporters out there that want to downplay any good news for the PS3. when it's looking to offer a good, if not great, gaming experience, with movies and everything else being extra bonuses.

and no, the 16% 360 interest in the 360 is not the real news here. the PS3 was considered doomed and failure for the past 5 months now. suddenly, almost overnight, it's interest level has risen significantly, and it's landed right behind the "little console that could" in the anticipation factor. everyone was sure that games like Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey would bury the PS3 in Japan, and interest in the 360 would explode.

while 360 interest has risen, i don't think it'll be enough to really catapault the 360 beyond the PS3 in Japan. especially if it doesn't do it by the time killer titles like FFXIII, MGS4, and White Knight Story come out (it was mentioned earlier last week that Factor 5 was aiming for White Knight Story to be a launch title, but they changed their minds because they wanted to add more to the game, and not do it, "halfway." this implies that the game is farther along in development than we thought, and it could come out in 2007, and not 2008, which most of us expected. it would also explain why the trailer was so polished looking. they've been hammering on this title while doing DQVIII and Rogue Galaxy).

i'll leave with a quote from president and CEO of Clover Studios (they've done Viewtiful Joe, and Okami, for those that may not know):

"One of the interesting things is that Sony's been on top of it's game for the last couple of generations, but with the Playstation 3, there's more challenge involved. The company has put all these interesting features on it, but since it's so early in the game, it feels like maybe Sony doesn't really have a vision of how exactly they're going to use these or what it's going to turn into. With the Wii, you have the controller and with the X Box, you have X Box Live and a few other things; they both have a distinct vision, but with Sony, you don't sense that there's a distinction of what they're going after. So how they develop that and how they progress is going to be very interesting." - From the Official Playstation Magazine, Issue 110 - November 06

basically, stop conclusion jumping and wait and see what they're going to do. if you're on the fence, then don't rush out to get a PS3 this fall. wait a year, or until there is a price point and titles that interest you for what you're getting, just don't bash and hate on the system. i don't find the 360 terribly interesting yet, but i plan on getting one next year, when titles like Mass Effect and Crackdown hit (to name just two). in the meantime, i'm not going to claim how lame and pathetic the 360 is. it's not. but i, and many others, will simply reserve judgement until there is a suitable time for judgement to be passed (say, in three years).

till next time.

Damian G. @ Oct 9th 2006 5:34PM

The reason the percentages don't add up is likely due to rounding. Some of those figures likely had a few numbers after the decimal point that did not round up, so they were simply left off.

A more professional poll would have noted the rounding.

daxiang12 @ Oct 9th 2006 6:09PM

I am not surprised by these results. PS3 and X360 interest rose probably due to their strong RPG showing this TGS. If you look at all the games sold in Japan, the biggest chunk belongs to RPG, followed by Pokemon :). I guess that maybe why GC was so outsold by PS2 in the last gen.
Japanese gamers just love RPGs.

Embassy @ Oct 9th 2006 6:15PM

no one thought the ps3 wud *Fail*...sony has higher standards...so *failing* means losing majority marketshare...which..they will lose by default( only 500k consoles at launch)...no one meant sony wud fall off the face of the earth (sega)

and why do people use blu-ray as some type of advantage like its actually in demand when the demand for it is manufactured...??..

sony got it right with the ps2...the demand for DVD was already running strong for a good few years...so sony supplied that demand...but with blu-ray...there is no initial commerceial demand right now..sony is trying to CREATE that demand...aka FORCE that demand..and make people think they *need* HD...when they dont. same goes for HD-DVD...luckily MS didnt jump in and throw that in its console.

fact: if sony had a blu-rayless PS3 option for around 300...they wud own this generation easily.

Enzo @ Oct 9th 2006 6:39PM

A lot of people forget one thing when mentioning Blu-Ray. HDDVD just looks BETTER right now. It's not preference, put best two titles from each format side by side and HDDVD is the clear winner. Of course since it's just a codec issue Blu-Ray could easily pull ahead.
I think picture quality is the most important factor when looking for a new HD source. Obviously.

Tom @ Oct 9th 2006 6:53PM

I predict that by 2007 Q4, over 8 Billion people will own a Wii, an Xbox 360, AND a PS3.

Xyzzy @ Oct 9th 2006 8:32PM

#24 - "i won't even get into how Blu Ray has waaaay more support from studios and everyone else than HD DVD, so eventually, there will be more movies on Blu Ray than HD DVD, even if it doesn't seem that way yet"

In case you havn't been following, Blu-Ray has been LOSING their exclusive studio support. Pixar is now very pro-HD-DVD and rumors are that Disney (parent to Pixar) and Fox will soon be releasing in both formats. Universal (aka: King Kong amongst others) are still exclusive to HD-DVD>

Blu-Ray is offering future potential, but are delivering on NOTHING. HD-DVD has 30/9 disks shipping now, whereas Blu-Ray hasn't even managed to ship a 50G disk yet.

HD-DVD movies are outselling Blu-Ray 11-1. You really think some PS3s are going to chagne that? I doubt it.

http://www.thedvdwars.com

While Sony fans wait for what is supposed to maybe, potentially, possibly be better sometime in the future, we're enjoying HD-DVD now.

Sony should've made the BD player optional.

makesevenupyours @ Oct 9th 2006 8:54PM

even though %16 is still losing pretty badly out there, i think microsoft would be very happy with that.

that is a BIG improvement, and would possibly help in future generations.

blue dragon and lost odyssey(spelling?) both look pretty good, but i think blue dragon looks a little too kiddy(i could deal with it anyway though), and lost odyssey has those gayz0r random battles.

more support in japan will be good for american and eauropean gamers(and everywhere else) also. getting some solid japanese games out here for 360 would be sweet.

makesevenupyours @ Oct 9th 2006 9:29PM

#24 figboy "i mean, the people that bought the premium 360, and are also planning on buying the $200 HD DVD drive would have saved themselves $100 if they just bought the $500 PS3, which comes with the Blu Ray drive built in"

who says?

im not getting that hard drive for quite some time...that is until i have an HDTV(quite some time). so right now, its a better value for a lot of us.

microsoft has given us options...but lets not turn this into a "which is better "arguement again, its just that you told us not to keep drawing all these conclusions, but you are making some conclusions yourself.

Ken Y-N @ Oct 9th 2006 10:24PM

Where is the original data for this survey? I checked ITMedia's Japanese web site, and I cannot see it anywhere.

I also want to know the question they were asked - everyone wants to buy a console - were all the "Don't want to buy one" people eliminated?

Also, as others have commented, the 16% for the XBox360 seems rather suspect.

Figboy @ Oct 10th 2006 12:11AM

#32: then obviously, i'm not talking about you. there will be people that have bought a 360 already, and will purchase the HD DVD add on as soon as it's available.

humans beings have this interesting knack of assuming that if they, personally, aren't going to get something asap, then no one else will also. so you're waiting for the HD DVD add-on to drop in price. good for you. i'm waiting for the PS3 to become more readily available before i purchase it. good for me.

we all do what we have to to get what we want. some people will wait out in all sorts of weather to get a Wii/360/PS3, what have you, others won't.

if it wasn't for early adopters, those who are willing to take it on the chin and pony up the dough to purchase these HD DVD add ons and PS3's and Wii's come launch, they wouldn't make it to price drop territory, and the reasony why we buy these shiny black and grey and white boxes would be negated, as game developers/movie studios, wouldn't bother publishing more content for it. just ask the dreamcast and UMD movies. not enough folks bought it. bad support.

it needs to be understood that people want the Playstation 3. those that are desperate enough, will purchase it for $500 and $600 when it first comes out.

here's something that hasn't been mentioned on any blogs or message boards this year: people want the PS3, they just don't want it for that price, as a lot of them feel that Blu Ray isn't a necessity (much like how a lot of people thought DVD wasn't necessary for games either. oh, the way we were). it's not that people don't want it. it's just that some people can't afford it. the hardcore Sony fans (which are potentially greater in number than the Nintendo and Microsoft fans, judging by the sales numbers of the GC and X Box, compared to the PS2; and no, it wasn't because of defective units. that argument is a weak one, and wholy unsubstantiated, as the defect rate of PS2's is well under the ammount necessary to produce 100 million repeat sales), will buy a PS3 at it's price, regardless. however many units Sony manages to produce in the next year will sell out. the 360 and Wii will sell also. currently in LA, the 360 isn't selling out and suffering shortages. a lot of people are waiting for the PS3 before they decide. not everybody likes Halo, Gears of War, or shooters in general (i don't care much for Halo, and after seeing Gears of War in action, it didn't help to sell me on the title). Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey are good moves, but we have yet to see their impact. anyway, i gotta go see a movie, i'll continue my rant later.

Don Jose @ Oct 10th 2006 4:47AM

"Quick, Kutaragi, how can we lose even more money?"

"Why, sell them at roughly half of what it costs to manufacture them, of course!"

"Well, OK, not quite that much money..."

"Do we have any other choice? Right now, no one really cares what we're doing."

WizarDru @ Oct 10th 2006 8:50AM

"and no, the 16% 360 interest in the 360 is not the real news here. the PS3 was considered doomed and failure for the past 5 months now."

Uhh...considered a failure according to who? Some anonymous posters to some gaming blogs? There seems to be some widespread belief that as goes Joystiq, so goes the world. This is not demonstrably true. Joystiq gets something like 220,000 visitors a day. Clearly most of them don't post here...and it's debatable how many even glance at the commentary.

Public opinion has wavered back and forth, but sales are the only real measuring stick. Sony's interest levels, especially after their good TGS showing, have certainly risen. But that's not the same thing as translating into sales. I don't think anyone thinks the PS3 will fail, so much as it will lose market dominance.

When Nintendo told everyone their next console would be about twice as powerful as a gamecube, everyone groaned and declared Nintendo dead. When Microsoft declared that the core system was going to be lacking so many add-ons, everyone groaned that no one would buy one. When Sony said the PS3 would be $600 for the better system, everyone said that PS3 would fail. But only sales of consoles and games will determine any sort of 'victor' in this space.

Sony is hoping for push-through and cross-selling on individual units to make their margins. They have a LOT riding on the PS3s success. Microsoft is pushing their online service, and the 360 is as much a means to reach Xbox Live as it is a console. Nintendo is pushing their software. Each one has a different focus on where they make their money and how. How much success they enjoy AFTER the holidays will be the true question of this generation.

SlartyBartFast @ Oct 10th 2006 2:24PM

/Quote
27. no one thought the ps3 wud *Fail*...sony has higher standards...so *failing* means losing majority marketshare...which..they will lose by default( only 500k consoles at launch)...no one meant sony wud fall off the face of the earth (sega)

1, you are completly wrong sony will not lose the majority of the marketshare it is likely they will gain more of it give it 3 years and you will find i am right so put that in ya pipe and smoke it. :P

and why do people use blu-ray as some type of advantage like its actually in demand when the demand for it is manufactured...??..

sony got it right with the ps2...the demand for DVD was already running strong for a good few years...so sony supplied that demand...but with blu-ray...there is no initial commerceial demand right now..sony is trying to CREATE that demand...aka FORCE that demand..and make people think they *need* HD...when they dont. same goes for HD-DVD...luckily MS didnt jump in and throw that in its console.

fact: if sony had a blu-rayless PS3 option for around 300...they wud own this generation easily.

Posted at 6:13PM on Oct 9th 2006 by Embassy

2, well you are completly wrong again developers do want the blu-ray storage and are and will use it as they are already and the reason Microsoft did not put it in there console was they wanted to rush there system out to beat sony to the punch in an attempt to gain marketshare which was a big mistake not putting HD drive or Blu-ray drive in there machine in a couple of years you will be wishing it had it as standard so you could of had games useing it where as because it is not standard you will not see games useing the HD addon drive.

ps they will own this generation for sure and ill tell ya now most xboc 360 owners will buy a ps3 within a year of the launch of the ps3 ill stake my life on it. :)