Market research firm forecasts console sales through 2010 [update 1]

by Blake Snow { Oct 23rd 2006 at 11:55AM }

IDG has released their predicted hardware and software sales through 2010 with Next-Gen summarizing key points from the console guestimates. The market research firm believes that by the end of the decade the Xbox 360 will have sold 23.9 million units, the PS3 23.5 million units, and Wii 13.6 million units. So in four years, North America and Western Europe will have sold about the same number of 360s as the Xbox's 24 million worldwide, PS3 significantly lower than 106 million worldwide PS2 sales, and Wii selling fewer than the GameCube's current 21 million worldwide.

Good thing the firm used decimal points to suggest accurate predictions. So how do they make said forecasts? Darts on a graph, of course!

[Whoops! My "dumbness" forgot to mention the report is for North America and Western Europe only]

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

randomshagz @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:00PM

I can see it happening. It really depends on what games come out.

LedRush @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:00PM

In your analysis, why would you compare the analysts' N. America numbers to this generations global ones.

Analysts are dumb enough, you retards don't have to make it worse.

Daryl @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:02PM

It says "North American installed base". So, those figures are only talking about North America. That means that in 5 years the 360 will sell in North America what the xbox did world wide.

gameclu @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:02PM

Shenanigans!! That's right, I'm calling it.

KaneRobot @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:04PM

Obviously other parts of the world will vary, but that's about what I'm guessing too for North America. The Wii may be a bit higher and the other two a bit lower. Overall outcome seems about right though.

spoo @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:04PM

@ LedRush I was just going to post the same thing. I was confused trying to figure out how the PS2 sold over 100 million units in NA.

Blake please edit your post.

Stuart @ Oct 24th 2006 12:27AM

While I find the 360 numbers around where I expected, and I knew the PS3 would either do well or very poorly in most forecasts, this treatment of the Wii is absurd.

Low price point, unique hardware, strong brand, classic Nintendo games, a Zelda game at launch.

Considering how many Wii's Nintendo's stockpiled, I think Nintendo knows something these market guy's don't.

MosquitoControl @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:07PM

I wouldn't be surprised by this at all.

I wouldn't be surprised by much of anything. If the Wii flops, I wouldn't be surprised. If the PS3 flops I wouldn't be surprised.

All that would really surprise me would be the 360 being dead last. Given its lead, I'd imagine it will be a solid #2 with a small chance at #1.

Dallas @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:08PM

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. "

-Lao Tzu

Draco @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:07PM

how do they honestly expect the PS3 to outsell the Wii, when the Wii will have massive stock and the PS3 will be in a drought?

they expect the Ps3 to sel 4-4.5million in the next 2 months even though Sony said they can only make 1.2Mil?

beaner @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:08PM

yah they cited their evidence for this graph... sike

Matt @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:09PM

Is it just me, or does that graph show around 4M PS3 units by Jan '07? Last I heard that many PS3s won't exist in the world by that date.

GlitchCog @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:16PM

This graph implies that as soon as they're released, the PS3 will have more momentum than the Wii.

That's not the feeling I get from the gaming community, and anyone not in the gaming community will certainly be more likely to pick up a Wii than a PS3.

You can speculate all you want about the distant future where nobody really knows what will happen, but to ignore what is mostly an undisputed consensus about what will happen one month from now is really stupid.

mike @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:10PM

maybe they watched too much of zorro

Silver @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:31PM

My prediction - the purple line (Wii) will intersect the green line (360) and out-accelerate it before the 2008 mark.

Russell Carroll @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:18PM

Yeah!
According to the analysts only 1/2 of the 2 million Wiis shipped to NA are going to sell this Christmas. That should mean I can actually buy one. I'd love that!

Drop A Load @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:18PM

wrong

Matt @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:20PM

Analysts just take historical trends and extrapolate on them, while throwing in what little they know about the next generation as equation-equalizers (yes I made that up). Stuff like yields, production issues, etc.

That said, it's probably accurate but their guess is only marginally more legit than my Mom's, who has actually never played a console and still calls my games 'tapes'

RobertHMayfire @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:22PM

You know statistics are made up on the spot. 85% of all people know that.

John Lucas @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:21PM

Laughable.
So funny how so many people underestimate the Wii & overestimate the 360 & PS3.

I need to put this chart in a timecapsule so I can have something look back on & laugh when I need a pick-me-up.

Nobody believes it but Wii will dominate worldwide. That is a promise.
It will be JUST like the DS.

Prepare yourself for the WiiDS phenomenon.
John Lucas

Squeek @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:29PM

"Is it just me, or does that graph show around 4M PS3 units by Jan '07? Last I heard that many PS3s won't exist in the world by that date."

An astute observation. Good call.

Just another nail in the coffin of people who are paid to make up numbers.

WillGod @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:39PM

It's one thing to argue with the analysis and back it up with actual data and research, but it's just ignorant to disagree with it and claim that the analysts are "laughable."

Where's your research? And no, the opinions of your friends and message board buddies don't count as research.

Actual funds are poured into making these analyses and actual business decisions are affected by them. It's not just some guy sitting around saying "Wii SuXX0RZ" or "360 FTW!!!" Can their forecasts be wrong? Of course they can. But at least they were initially based on something.

Beans @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:44PM

Yep, I can see this happening and all of you Wii fanboys should really stop arguing about it.

I mean, it was the analysts successfully predicted the PSP’s global domination over just about everything. None of your silly little quarrels are going to alter the inevitable.

JodyAnthony @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:58PM

nintendo is supposed to have 12million systems made by the end of this fiscal year (march 2007 I beleive) and according to this, they will barely sell 13 million in north america in a little over 3 years? i find that really hard to beleive.

Ritz @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:44PM

Haha, never mind Jan 07, look at the graph before that. Is there a physical way the PS3 can outsell the Wii, considering the amount of units available before the close of December? If they have that off, how likely is it that the rest of the graph is mostly bunk?

existonfile @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:47PM

I also call a big fat shenanigans on this chart. The systems by themselves do nothing for how many units they sell, it's all about the games. This chart makes predictions into 2010, but all it takes is ONE GTA3 caliber title (great game + insane hype) to be exclusive on any of the systems to push that one system to top spot. If GTA3 were exclusive to xbox this last gen we would have seen xbox and ps2 in a much closer race.

No one can predict which system will get the next big game, but I will say this: we are seeing alot of games being developed for ps3 and 360, with very few exclusive titles for each, whereas the Wii is getting many exclusives due to it's wonky control scheme. With that in mind, which system do you think has the better chance of snagging a killer exclusive that will not be ported to it's rivals?

Robert Jung @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:52PM

Pardon me for being skeptical, but as someone who actually read the article, the only rationale given for the PS3's predicted popularity is because "[Sony's] brand remains strong
(particularly so in several European markets)". And the only rationale for the Wii's much lower sales is... well, nothing, actually.

Given the lack of any convincing arguments (at least in the excerpts from the Next-Gen article linked above), I have to say that this analysis reads like something knocked up by a stunned intern in three minutes before lunchtime, and should be treated with the appropriate levels of skepticism.

--R.J.

DreamCast @ Oct 23rd 2006 12:54PM

That charts good and all, until you remember that MS will probally be releasing the next Xbox by 2008.

Nmaster @ Oct 23rd 2006 1:00PM

Oh yeah, that extremely controversial $600 system is defintely going to outsell the most anticipated innovation in video game history right out the gate.

I swear analysts don't pay any attention to the customers of the market they're predicting for. They just can't seem to grasp how big a deal those price tag s are going to make...

Marty @ Oct 23rd 2006 1:12PM

The North American market does not exist in a vacuum, and even though this chart might have you believe that it does, the Japanese and European markets DO affect ours. When the PS3 is late to hit Europe, and developers drop their exclusivity (or altogehter) support for the console, things can change.

nootau @ Oct 23rd 2006 1:26PM

This is crazy talk! The gamecube sold, between its launch and Dec 31st. of 2001, 1,236,059 consoles[1]. Now, i smell BS! The gamecube launch was no where near as hyped as the Wii launch. The gamecube launch did not even have an AAA Nintendo title, such as mario or zelda at launch (sorry luigi!)...The Wii has Zelda! I prediect that the Nintendo Wii will be virtually sold out at launch, Nintendo will sell 3,000,000+ consoles between launch and Dec 31st...or roughly 2.5 to 3 times the Gamecube launch. Even at twice the launch, that is 2.5 million consoles...these numbers are bunk! I am not saying the Wii will rule the world or something, its just those numbers are very suspect...for all of the consoles...

[1]http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=11067

Wombat @ Oct 23rd 2006 1:20PM

#21. While some of the previous posts may have been a tad ”off the cuff,” that does not alter the fact that the IDG analysis has issues by the bucketload.

Like, right out of the box, the 2006 outlook for the Wii vs. PS3. The NA and Europe unit sales projections are roughly the same at about a million units (plus or minus a 100k). HUH? Sony will launch in the US in 2006 with about 500k units—and (with luck) ship 2 million by year end. Oh, and ship zippo to Europe this year. Nintendo, on the other hand, has a couple million wee Wii’s piled up and waiting to ship at launch and expects to ship another 5 to 7 million units by the end of December.

So with absolute supply constraints as an obvious issue with a parity forecast, let’s add the wide price disparity, and factor in the relative level of buzz. Not being a fanboi in either camp, but the odds of the same number of Wii’s andPS3’s getting sold in the US this year are (to two places to the right of the decimal point) roughly between nil and none.

Can’t put lipstick on a pig.

Pixelantes Anonymous @ Oct 23rd 2006 1:21PM

I don't understand the low Wii numbers at all. They expect Nintendo to not sell out? That's just not gonna happen. Judging from what I see everywhere on the net about Wii pre-orders and other news about the demand for the Wii, I just do not see it being that far back to the 360 and PS3.

I would like to know where the hell did this analyst pull up those numbers. They just don't seem to align with what I see happening.

Covarr @ Oct 23rd 2006 1:29PM

@WillGod: You need data and research? Fine. Sony's estimate for the number of PS3 units available worldwide by year end is 2 million, yet this chart shows the PS3 as selling 3 Million in the US alone by year end.

In addition, Wii has made some big holiday lists, like that of Toys'R'Us, while PS3 hasn't. Though it may not seem like a big deal, these lists can have a huge impact on what actually sells better over the holidays. With this kind of advantage, Wii is quite likely to outsell the PS3 in North America at least for the remainder of this year.

For these reasons, I'm gonna have to agree with #17 that this chart is, in fact, "Laughable."

Miniboss @ Oct 23rd 2006 1:29PM

"It's one thing to argue with the analysis and back it up with actual data and research, but it's just ignorant to disagree with it and claim that the analysts are "laughable.""

I think you can just do a search on "analysts" on Joystiq and you'll find the reasons why everyone here think analysts can't predict lunch at the commissary, much less how the next-gen console wars are going to turn out.

Wasn't this supposed to be the year of doom and gloom for the game industry? And yet it's still on the up and up?

And wasn't the DS supposed to tank under the pressure of the PSP? Yeah, that worked out well.

SecondChance @ Oct 23rd 2006 1:33PM

A much better graph, IMO:

http://www.infendo.com/2006/10/i-redo-idgs-next-gen-console.html

More accurate

James Lill @ Oct 23rd 2006 1:56PM

Ok, who in their right mind is going to spend $250 on a slightly modded gamecube? Unfortunately the "Next Gen" arena is a bit pricey. I am going to stick to the good old PC. I can go to 1280x1024 resolution and full hardware accelerated sound. If I had to choose, I would say Sony will win in the long run. It has more performance which means that it can hang around the scene for a longer time(but damn that price hurts). The Wii will sell like a beast because of the gimmick controller but will be outdated about 6 months after launch but will continue to sell to their kiddie fanbase. The 360 is a solid machine that will keep going strong for several years.

Jake @ Oct 23rd 2006 2:36PM

Why do I get the feeling that this graph was just some dude getting his crayons out and playing analyst.

More PS3s will sell in North America than will exist in the entire universe by 07. Maybe they are counting pre-orders, back-orders, etc.

It also seems kind of convenient that the 360 and PS3 are dead even at the end. I suppose that way they aren't seen as biased or kiddy.

And people need to stop even trying to predict how the Wii will do. That thing really is up in the air. I think it will sell between 10 and 150 million when it is said and done.

CakeOrDeath @ Oct 23rd 2006 3:06PM

According to the Graph the PS3 will have shipped close to 4 million PS3s by start of 2007! Thats a little strange since Sony will have only shipped 2 million at most by then.

Software sells consoles anyway. How exactly does IDG think it can predict the next GTA or Halo and which console it will end up exclusive on.

JodyAnthony @ Oct 23rd 2006 2:11PM

James Lill, I will pay $250 for a slightly modded gamecube, if thats what you think wii is. And I assume I am in my right mind. In fact, I only have $50 more to pay on it at gamestop. You know what though? I don't care about a high resolution. I have an SDTV and don't plan on upgrading any time soon. I have seen plenty of HD programming on really good HDTVs and the difference really doesn't matter to me. I have played the hell out of xbox 360 on an HDTV through a friend of mine, and you know what, that doesn't make games more fun. A higher resolution in no way effects how fun a game is to play. I like nintendo games because they are fun. I am paying the $250 just to play zelda, just like I paid $150 for a N64 just to play Ocarina of Time, and I totally do not regret it. I have played through the game 5 times now, and still love it. Totally worth what I paid for it. But what do I know, I'm stupid for actually enjoying playing video games no matter what resolution they run at. I am just surprised any console manufacturers have lasted more than one system, given how low the resolution on say Atari, NES, SNES, Genesis, even Playstation 1 was. Stupid low resolutions. Thank you for reminding me that the only way a game can be worth the money you pay for it is if the resolution is high and if you can see individual sweat drops on someones forehead.

Oh well, I better go give my wife a call and tell her that she's a pedophile, because I must be a child for liking Nintendo, right?

chimp o death @ Oct 23rd 2006 2:54PM

Wow, this is almost exactly what I was trying to explain in a post last week. I was even generous to Sony and gave them until mid-2008 to catch up to Microsoft.

The point I was making was that even if they have a hugely successful first couple of years, selling every single machine as it leaves the factory, etc. they numbers make it impossible for them to account for much more than 50% of the market for a long time, and for quite a while they'll be stuck in second place. That's just a common sense reading of the numbers. And third party publishers will definitely notice that exclusives will be cutting them out of a huge segment of the market.

WillGod @ Oct 23rd 2006 2:22PM

@ Covarr - If you actually read the Next-Gen article, you'll see that the PS3 number is really 0.9million for 2006. The chart itself is just not to scale apparently.

In fact, the Wii is slated to outsell the PS3 in 2006 based on the report.

And again, I'm not saying the chart or report in general in correct. I'm saying it's ignorgant to start flaming analysts when the report does not reflect your opinions. Yes, they've been wrong and wil be wrong in the future, but these guys aren't just throwing darts at a board. They're using real data to make real analyses that will impact real business decisions and are making real money doing it.

If all of these reports were just bunk, like so many here would seem to think, how do these companies exist at all? Why do other companies use these reports? Of course question them, but have good reasons for questioning them.

Paul @ Oct 23rd 2006 2:38PM

More PS3s than Wii by the end of this year? That's plain wrong.

Evan @ Oct 23rd 2006 2:48PM

@21 "Actual funds are poured into making these analyses and actual business decisions are affected by them."

If I paid for that research, I'd want my money back. The fact that they predicted more PS3s will be sold than manufactured completely nullifies their credibility.

@23 "I mean, it was the analysts successfully predicted the PSP’s global domination over just about everything."

I hope you're being sarcastic.

@Me:

Even if sales turn out as predicted, the Wii still stands to be more profitable than the PS3 and 360. Just like this generation... the XBox1 might have sold a couple million more units than the GameCube, but the GameCube was more profitable (by a difference of over $4 billion!).