Market research firm forecasts console sales through 2010 [update 1]

My analytical estimates:

http://i123.photobucket.com/albums/o307/x876543/estimates.jpg

Why do people always accept as an inevitability that the Playstation 3 will outsell all other game consoles? It's TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS MORE than its closest competitor. Money talks, and in the next two years, it's going to say a lot more about the PS3 than bogus predictions by pro-Sony sycophants.

JR

@ Manekineko

"It's TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS MORE than its closest competitor."

Actually, its only ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS MORE than its closest competitor, seeing how the standard ps3 == the standard xbox 360.

Also, the graph isnt guessing trends in sales month to month. If you look closely, the 2006E (End) is what the graph is estimating. Then its a straight line to the 2007E(End) that the graph is estimating. It isn't going month to month.

Damn me and my typos!!! Standard PS3 == Premium Xbox 360

I don't understand people.

Premium 360 = base ps3? how? because only the premium 360 had a hard drive? so what, you can still play 360 games on the core 360 without a hard drive.

Its the same as people comparing the wii to the 360. either the nintendo fanboys compare it only to the premium 360, or the 360 fanboys compare wii to the core 360.

Of course my favorite argument was always "If you buy a wii and buy second controller, you are in 360 territory!" when those people do not take into account that they are comparing a system with 2 controllers and a game to a system with one controller and no games.

all of us fanboys are stupid.

(a shiny nickel to whoever knows what camp I'm in)

Plainly and obviously ridiculous/not credible.

If you look at the graph and see they have sony at 4mm units at the end of 06. We already know through numerous news sources that they will already be hard pressed to reach 400K by that point.

Great way to sell a reputation IDG. Try finding someone who actually does real research to work for you

WillGod says:
[[21. It's one thing to argue with the analysis and back it up with actual data and research, but it's just ignorant to disagree with it and claim that the analysts are "laughable."

Where's your research? And no, the opinions of your friends and message board buddies don't count as research.

Actual funds are poured into making these analyses and actual business decisions are affected by them. It's not just some guy sitting around saying "Wii SuXX0RZ" or "360 FTW!!!" Can their forecasts be wrong? Of course they can. But at least they were initially based on something.]]

Yeah I coulda went into depth but I've done that plenty of times on these boards. Stories & analyses like these are common & I get tired of spelling it out piece by piece. There'll be 4 or 5 more of these types of things before both of their launches.

You wanna know WHY I just wrote it off as "laughable"?
I'll break it down. Get some drinks & eats; you'll be here for a while.

We have 3 companies: Microsoft, Sony, & Nintendo.
Out of that 3 Microsoft & Sony have other avenues of business. Games are but a PART of what makes up the entire company.
This is both a strength and a weakness because what happens in the other sectors influences what happens in the game sectors. And this is reflected on the types of decisions they make when they make their consoles such as the multimedia format fight & the go-to entertainment complex they hope to be in the living rooms of the world.
On the plus side BECAUSE of those other co-business ventures they have more money to spare & to waste.

Nintendo is purely a gaming company. That's all. If they fail in that sector the whole business fails. We're not gonna count the hanafuda division because that's not gonna sustain multi-billion dollar losses.
That's why they didn't make a big "NinBox Live" service in the Gamecube days. It wasn't financially smart. Microsoft has that 4 Billion to waste, Nintendo doesn't.
It's a STRENGTH, however, because it makes them more efficient, less wasteful with their decisions. That's why their business model is so tight. They play it smarter. They HAVE to in the face of those goliaths. It makes them focused & more agile to move the company in certain directions. All they have to concentrate on is gaming.

Between Microsoft & Sony, Microsoft has the great money edge being virtually the world's OS provider: home & business. Not to mention being backed by the world's richest man, Bill Gates (Ted DiBiase has NOTHING on this guy). Sony has their fingers in electronics, music, TV, movies, & all sorts of ventures that give them many pies to pluck from but even with all that their money ain't as long as the boys from Redmond, WA.

Now that that's established let's put it in context with this 7th generation 'battle'.
Microsoft fresh off of the foot-in-the-door XBox venture starts the gen off early with the XBox 360 last year. It looked like a mistake at the time but it was a wise move intended or not because MS is STILL the outsider in this gaming world. This headstart allows them to prove themselves & marinate in the minds of the buying public. It's hard to keep up so many competitors at one time. It's usually a two-man race. They had to suffer great losses just to get people to say their name. People are saying their name now & they are trying to capitalize on it.

Their goal is to siphon away support from Sony. Their system just like the last one was similar in capability, library & content to the Playstations except for choice exclusives. Their big differentiating feature is their XBox Live Service. Their only TRUE system selling star is the Halo series. They have to gather more of what Sony has to tip the scales in their favor. When former Sony exclusives like big time franchises from THQ & the WWE go multiplatform they gather that audience's support.
They also will court the long-neglected regions of Europe & Australia to win hopefully long-time loyalties.

The STICKING point in all this is they're trying to give you everything Sony's got but for $200 LESS than what Sony is asking for. That's very persuasive & forces Sony to justify their asking price. What BIG advantage is this extra $200 providing me?

Microsoft can certainly outlast Sony financially & they said as much when they announced that they're "interested in this space". I should think so after dropping $4 billion just to make a name for yourself in the 6th generation.
It's beyond gaming why Microsoft's 'interested in this space'. From different paths both Sony & Microsoft are in contest to win favor in your living room for the total media experience.

Sony, a technological company who makes your TVs, DVD's, radios, CD's, even batteries...who owns the content from your favorite musical artists, movies & TV programs...they want to be the go-to guy when you want to access MEDIA. Through their devices & technology they want to be the gateway to your MEDIA. They want to own MEDIA.

Microsoft, a software writing company who's runs the programs on the computer I'm typing on now & most likely you're typing on now & the office worker is typing on now & the president is typing on now...the ones who are an integral part of nearly every computer & like device in the world in our technological age...they want to be the go-to guy when you want to access MEDIA. Through their programs & services they want to be the gateway to your MEDIA. They want to own MEDIA.

Both names are world-famous & both of their respective products are heavily interacted with by many people around the world. The hill is not big enough for both of them on Media Hill & somebody has to drop. That's why they are fighting each other so hard. Games is a small subsection of this much larger fight. A strategic subsection of course because it can turn the tide of the fight.

Sony, on the other hand in this gameworld, has the momentum of the market-successful (not-so-much financially successful in proportion) Playstation 2.
They are the status quo deemed by many in this industry. They are the insiders unlike the bigger but outsider Microsoft & they are counting on the momentum they've been building ever since the Playstation 1 to make it a three-time charm.
Marketshare-wise in the console realm they have negligable competition & this only adds to their assuredness of charming thrice.

This may account for the countless uncanny-to-most-buyers moves they've been making on this project. Such as the high asking price for their new system with true version TWICE as much as their last system launch price at $600 or 599 US Dollars if you will...The press statements from the execs, the addition of this high-priced technology such as Blu-Ray & this Cell chip, the regional delays in Europe in contrast with the rest of the world, the shocking lack of units produced for launch in the midst of TWO strong competitors, continuing announcements of shortages & setbacks all brushed off as no big deal...

They are counting on their trusty 3rd party developer support & allegiance to carry them on through one more time. They are counting on the WOW factor of looks & the awe of technotalk to make the buyers bite the hook.
They are thinking that they own the loyalty of their buyer bases who will endure & wait patiently for whatever they're offering disregarding the competition.

And that's precisely the problem.
3rd party cannot be banked on. Their allegiance is based on where they think their games will make the most sales & nothing more. Never forget that Sony doesn't own those powerhouse franchises; the 3rd parties do. And they can & WILL jump ship if the PS3 doesn't look sell-worthy.
~
Counting on looks isn't good either because graphics were basically finalized in the 6th generation where illustrative AND realistically-depicted styles were accurately transcribed to the screen. The games fit the imagination of the designer now. All further improvements until Virtual Reality is achieved will merely refine the progress already made. The graphics fight is over.
~
AND gamer loyalty only stretches as far as the types of games on said systems...AND, with humans being a herd animal, where EVERYBODY ELSE is going. It's very fickle & Sony themSELVES benefitted from this over the N64 with the Playstation 1 ten years ago.

That's a bad foundation to build upon if you ask me. ESPECIALLY in light of the headstarted XBox 360 & curiosity-inducing Wii.

And speaking of the Wii...
Nintendo has created a BRAND-NEW design for videogaming that has captured the imaginations of many people. With the success of the DS & its philosophy of capturing the one who DOESN'T play you can't expect any less out of the Wii which is coming from the same design philosophy & approach.

Yeah yeah I know can't compare handheld world to console world. GBA was a monster while Gamecube was a marketshare abandonee (though profitable nevertheless). Gamecube's biggest problem (Nintendo's since the N64) is the lack of significant 3rd party developer support as well as a minor image issue.
Nintendo has modified their long-standing 'EVERYONE' model to make it more successful in these times. This is the reason for the interface innovations in both Wii & DS to make gaming more accessible to people. It must be a good idea if Sony wants to attempt this Sixaxis 'innovation'. The difference this time is that the DS was litmus test for this philosophy & it has proven itself very successful against the Sony's PSP which mirrors the approach of the PS3. This time the comparison can be made. Plus the momentum Nintendo has gotten from the DS audience as well as the continued good buzz from this originally controversial but now more appealing Wii concept.
Oh & let's not forget Nintendo's tried & true 1st party masterpieces & franchises which allowed them to survive 3rd party drought in the console realm. Mario, Zelda & co. are eternal.

Not just that but it's cheap as well. Nearly 1/2 to 2/3 cheaper than the full PS3 & cheaper even to the XBox 360. All the while giving you a free online service, a packed-in game & a fresh experience that looks inviting to the non-gamer.
Oh & it's launching staggered worldwide including the neglected PS3 region of Europe.

Take all this and THEN remember that the gameindustry centers around Japan & has for 25 years thanks to the unique fresh titles that keep coming out of that region. Why do you think Microsoft keeps trying to win over the Japanese despite continued cold shoulders? That's where the bigtime system selling developers are! They can't get the biggest of the region, Nintendo, obviously so they keep trying to win over the 3rd parties working closely with Sony. Once you make it big in Japan the world tends to follow. Yes Japan, though a surprisingly heavily populated island, is not the biggest gaming population in the world. The Americas & Europe outnumber Japan but Japan is where the heart is, it's where the direction is set. You win in Japan & you've won because the ENTIRE WORLD loves the Japanese brand of gaming and has for over 25 years.

Microsoft is so far a non-factor there so the race is between Sony & Nintendo. The DS is DESTROYING the PSP over there! SIX to ONE sales in favor of the big N. Knowing how much Nintendo frowns on waste they make absolute profit on this rolling snowball that secures them as a company for a long time to come. They don't 'losslead' like the bigger boys do. For a "leader in loss" in ultimately a "loser".

Wii is made out of the same mentality as the DS.
Do you REALLY think the Japanese aren't gonna eat this up?? They LOVE fresh unique things over there. Wii is sure to make a killing. And Nintendo's infamous airtight business model with sister branches, handheld & console, will SURELY crossbreed & mix these audiences making a twin phenomenon of selling power & cultural impact.
If Nintendo gets Japan in the East, don't you realize that their big problem is solved? The 3rd party goes where the money is. If the money is on Nintendo, then goodbye Sony. Sony's 1st party is lacking compared to Nintendo's. They can't survive an exodus like Nintendo did.
1st party + 2nd party + 3rd party = Nintendo's party.
That's just the East!

Wii ALSO is making a buzz in the so-called "West". ALONG with XBox 360 which though not selling very great being the only next-gen around is gaining respect.
With Sony delivering a skimpy launch in the FACE of a year-long headstart AND within days of a E3 2006 winning system loaded to bear for product...with Sony leaving the European region WIDE OPEN for MONTHS to both Big Money Microsoft & Innovation God Nintendo who both will do their best to win over this oft-neglected region...with Sony possibly following their history of defective consoles being shipped taking into account the rush to make product throughout all these reported part shortages & such...

You mean to tell ME that you can look at all this & see that chart coming out like that?????

NOW you know why I said "Laughable"
And I spelled it out all for you.

Later folks. I probably missed a coupla details but I'm sure this is enough.
John Lucas

Someone said (I really don't feel like going back and checking who) that they'll stick to their PC with it's hardware accelerated graphics and sound. I somewhat agree with that, I love my PC games and no console(yet) can replace my PC RTS and FPS(keyboard and mouse FTW) and the graphics on my PC are definately more than sufficient(i typically run things at 1600x1200 when possible which is comparable to 1080p), but nothing can beat the home theater experience I get with my console hooked upto a 52" 1080p TV with a high end surround sound system makes both games and movie watching just incredible. While I can hook my PC upto this system, it's just not the same. The main problem I have is the sound hardware. The hardware in the 360(and I'm sure PS3 as well) is far superior to any SoundBlaster you are going to get which only has simulated surround sound. The hardware in the 360 does realtime Dolby 5.1 encoding which is only available on a small number of PC sound cards and not supported very well. Having that big screen in front of you with the 5 channels of sound to back it really immerses you in the game unlike anything else.

You know what, lets assume this chart is bunk and forget about it. Sony fanboys, you can assume that the PS3 should've overtaken 360 by end 2008, and thus consider this bunk. Nintendo fanboys, you can assume that Wii will outsell PS3, and thus consider this bunk. Microsoft fanboys, you can assume that the PS3 will never be able to get to close to your installed base, and consider this bunk. Everyone else, you can look at estimate hardware availability at this year end, and consider this bunk. I think I've covered everyone except the analysts.

Why does anyone use the core xbox 360 to compare anything? Sure you can play your game without a HDD, you just can't save it, or download demos, or download patches, or use XBLA. What the core gives you is an incomplete xbox 360, There are tons of things you can't do on a xbox 360 core that you can do on a xbox 360 premium. Where as with the PS3 Standard vs Premium, you can do all the same things on both of them. All the functionality is on both of them, you do not need to buy anything extra for the standard version to gain everything the PS3 has to offer. If you want Wifi, some extra HDD space, and a SD card reader built in, then you pay for the ADDED luxuries.

That is why you compare the XBOX 360 Premium to the PS3 Standard.

ZOMG LONG POST ABOVE

John, a pro tip: While what you said there might have been totally awesome, no one is going to read a post that long. :)

I second Infil

"John, a pro tip: While what you said there might have been totally awesome, no one is going to read a post that long. :)"

You neglect to mention bored college students who don't have anything better to do.

Very well-thought out and cohesive post there John. It's a wonder there are no numbers next to the word "Stars" in your posts.

At this point in the game, I wouldn't put my trust in anything other than my own game experience. I mean, isn't that Nintendo's entire goal? "Playing = Believing"?

Without actually playing this thing, all you can do is look at it from the outside and wonder. That's exactly what happened when the DS first came out. I heard about this touch screen thing and thought it was too much like a PDA and wouldn't sell. Then I saw some demo videos of the games. Then I actually played one.

Those who haven't played these consoles don't have as strong a voice as those who have, and those who have are saying "Wii!"

nice analysis.. will be great to see the competition btw these gaming consoles.

anyways, u can read a nice technology blog at http://www.rncos.com/Blog/itresearch.html which i recently found. thx.