Analyst: Xbox 360 sales "below expectations"

by Blake Snow on Oct 24th 2006 5:00PM

In speaking with Next-Gen, analyst Colin Sebastian claims that Xbox 360 sales are "below current market expectations" despite sufficient inventory supplies of the system after meeting pent-up demand from earlier shortages. "Based on year-to-date sell-through trends in North America, we believe sales of Microsoft's Xbox 360 console are tracking closer to 4.5 million units for the year versus current market expectations in the 5-million unit range," said Sebastian.

The investment banker noted, however, that with limited availability of the PS3 and possibly the Wii this holiday season, Microsoft's second generation console could see a spike in sales. Even still, the analyst decreased sales estimates for the 360, Xbox, Nintendo GameCube, GBA, and PSP while increasing expectations for Wii, DS, and PS2. The report made no mention of Sony's big, perty PS3, though.

Source

Tags: DS, GameCube, PS2, PS3, PSP, Xbox, Xbox-360

Reader Comments (81)

"Below me" analysts...

BOYCOTT SONY!

This news doesn't really suprise me. Most people are holding out till all 3 consoles are on the board before they commit to 1 of the expensive 2.

Only ms bitches believe that the 360 is selling well, 10 million ha maybe in 2008. That piece of shit 360 can even sell by itself imagine when it goes up againdt the PS3. Sony is going to bitch slap ms all over again.

I doubt Microsoft considered that the PS2 was going to continue to sell as well as it has during the 360's lifetime (so far). Still, 4.5 as opposed to 5 million isn't a horrible difference. Everything is up for grabs this holiday, but I think Sony will be the big loser since shipped and available units for the PS3 will be so low. Holiday buyers will be driven to the Wii or 360.

BMW: You can stop trolling any time now.

**3. Only ms bitches believe that the 360 is selling well, 10 million ha maybe in 2008. That piece of shit 360 can even sell by itself imagine when it goes up againdt the PS3. Sony is going to bitch slap ms all over again.**

And only Sony sluts will think Sony's going to walk through this without major competition. Seriously, do you honestly talk like that? The day of the raving fanboy has come and gone. The tired argument of
"just 'cuz it is" just isn't flying anymore. Do yourself a favor and grow up.

The reason for sluggish sales wasn't the system, it was the major slowdown in A+ software releases. I think the 360 will recover in sales with the releases of some high profile games for Christmas ... and the lack of available PS3's will make a difference, too.

give it some time it'll sell once the average comsumer see more killer games for the system, the 360 hasn't had a outstanding line up just a few good and less than great games. XBL acrade is keeping the ones who own the system some interesting games to eat on until...later in the year when ps3 comes out the 360 will have plenty of ammo to fire back with since the ps3 has only a handful of exclusive games to it name and most are cross platform anyways. $600 vs. $400 will make a huge diff. for the average comsumer just look at the ps2 less in every dept except games when compared to the xbox. xbox is like the ps3 this round better here and there ,but in the end price may make the difference.

It would probably help if the 360 could start outselling the PS2... I mean, I don't know when the PS2 started outselling the PS1, but I'm pretty sure it took less time than the 360 has been out.

Why is this a shock to anyone who knows anything at all about business? And that's not a rip on Microsoft, it's just common sense.

There are three competing products by three rival companies. These products are cost prohibitive enough that most consumers will not purchase all three (I said most consumers, calm down). Only one of those three products is currently for sale right now, though the others are being released shortly. Any idiot would be able to tell you that consumers who either don't want to buy all three or cannot afford to buy all three are going to wait until they can make an informed choice about which system(s) they want to buy.

Which isn't necessarily bad news for Microsoft, because I am sure there will be people who, after sampling the 360, the PS3 and the Wii, will decide that the 360 is the right system for them. There are likely plenty of holdouts who just want to know what they are (and aren't) buying. But the first-to-market advantage isn't quite what it used to be in the console market. That's partly due to a more informed customer base, and partly due to the increasingly high prices associated with the products.

This is a crock of crap, Best buy here in town had 50 360 Units last week and all sold out District Wide. Thats a lot of units.

Considering there are ZERO PS3 and Wii's currently available, why would the XBox 360 sales go UP when there actually is some availability of competitive consoles, albeit limited. That doesn't make much sense.

Wow BMWM3P, I didn't know you could use a laptop from your spot under azn1080p's desk at the $ony labs. Another brilliant statement seeps from your fingers like the goo on Kenny Rogers hand.

You go by BMWM3P... but by your posts I would believe you could not possibly be old enough to drive- and certainly not old enough to afford a BMW. Making you the fan of a car you cannot- nor have ever driven. Kind of like how you have sworn your alliegence to a console that you have never played- and probably be purchasing with your mommy's money.

I think you are funny. I like you. Do you like me? Can you be my boyfriend?

I agree with Aaron number #12.
There may be 10 people out there ( Under-estimating of course) Who are waiting for the next gen consoles to release before they decide to buy a 360. This is just stupid. If anything, people are JUST waiting for the PS3 and Wii. How will the PS3 bomb? Everyone knows all 500,000 units will sell out, no matter how much you anyone Hates Sony. And 4.5 is a BIG difference from 5 million. That is 500,000 consoles not sold. For Shame Microsoft and Xbox the Sequel. And there are no Huge Titles for 360 come this holiday season save Gears of War. Nothing will make the 360 outsell the Wii and PS3. (Of course Until PS3 sells out within minutes. As well as the Wii.)

A couple of you have already said it.... the 360 needs some A+ games. There's really nothing on it right now that's really all that much more incredible than the original Xbox or the PS2. If I didn't get mine as a gift, I certainly wouldn't have bought one yet.

Although i believe he should have said it more tactifully, i agree with one of the premises of BMW's statement

The systems that follow the "foot-in-the-door" strategy of starting that generation (Genesis for the 4th, 3D0 for the 5th, and Dreamcast for the 6th) will NOT succeed if they cannot compete with the last-gen systems

Genesis COULD compete with the NES, and went on to be a successful console
3D0 FAILED to compete with the Genesis, let alone the Super NES, and failed in the end
Dreamcast FAILED to compete with the PlayStation (and probably ran neck and neck with the N64 over the first holiday season)
Now the 360 fails to compete with the PlayStation 2

Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it

@ 16. Did you say Incredible on the Original Xbox? Well for sure there is nothing more incredible on 360 than was on the Xbox because There was NOTHING incredible on the original Xbox, save maybe Ninja Gaiden and Fable. Even Gamecube had better games than the Original Xbox. As far as the PS2 goes, we know 360 does not have any games as good as PS2 because the PS2 is still wiping the floor with the 360 in sales. In North America, and everywhere else.

Before this becomes a complete flame out........

Consoles don't sell themselves, Games sell consoles.

And there has been a long drought between titles for the Xbox 360. Thankfully Gears of War, Lost Planet, Rainbow Six: Vegas and a few others will take up the slack for Q4.

No matter what power these next gen machines have under the hood, they are worthless unless developers have games for them.

As we can see this generation will be no different from the last as developers are keeping their usual pace at getting their offerings out the door.

It's the long drought between titles that is truly responsible for any sluggishness in sales.

Mr Khan #17, You are a GENIUS. WELL SAID. No Rebuttal could ever counter the points you have made. Especially considering the fact that Sega was a much more established company in the gaming market than is Microsoft. Microsoft is doomed! Doomed I Tells Ya! They'll need a billion Halo's to push the market. Sony and Nintendo have too much power in the business for Microsoft to push them over, yet, or ever.

I blame the poor 360 sales on its pathetic line up of games. The 360 lacks a killer app to attract the enthusiasts, and lacks the variety of games needed to attract a wider audience. Microsoft blew their one year head start, but things are starting to change. It looks like Gears of War could be a killer app. And we are finally seeing a wider variety of games, with Blue Dragon, Viva Pinata, etc.

Meanwhile, the PS3 is also off to a slow start. The PS3's potential killer apps, MGS4 and FFXIII, are not expected until Q4 2007. Sony is effectively giving Microsoft the next 12 months. But come XMas'07, the PS3 will start to look a lot stronger! But the article is about this holiday season, not next year's holiday season.

Well said Ghost Box. Although I'm Sure No one gives a damn about Lost Planet, and Rainbow Six is also a launch title for the PS3, and coming out for PS2, so throw those out the window. Three "Good" Games for the Holiday season is nothing. Look at what PS2 owners have to buy this Holiday Season, (Even Though these games have been or are releasing very soon.)
Final Fantasy 12 (80% of PS2 owners will pick this up.) Bully, will be a great gift. Guitar Hero 2. (Releasing for 360 next year) 360 has NO titles releasing in December. Gears of war comes out in 2 weeks. And to add to Sony's Fire, there is Resistance, and Fight Night Round 3. Two Consoles, one being as good as the PS2, and the PS3, Definitely beat at least one, which is, and is proven, to be the 360. (Might I add, Lost Planet Releases in 2007.) So will Gears of War be enough? Very Doubtful, considering the game actually is a bore like the videos show. I didn't say IT IS Boring, I'm not FLAMING, I'm just saying there is that possibility. (Whew this is long) Not to mention all the great PS2 and PS3 games releasing in Japan. Don't get me started on how the Wii will outsell the 360. Resistance: Fall of Xbox.

Apoklypse

I own a 2001 e46 m3 jet black on grey and I can bet i'm probably a bit older than most of you here. And I like girls and fags like you can burn in hell. Does it really bother you that much that I'm just stating the truth? You got to lay off that Bill Gates semen is really affecting your brain. Ms is doomed people don't care very much for the 360 and are waiting for the PS3. Are you that pissed off that sony has a superior product that going to wipe the floor with ms. Or are you just sorry that you wasted 400.00 in a dumb .5 gem machine? It's only money you could save up again and maybe in a few years you will be able to afford a real console.

OH EM GEE VID-JOE GAMES SELLING OVER THE HOLIDAYS?! NO WAAAAAAAY.

Evan smoke up much? Did you say PS3 is off to a slow start? IT HASN'T EVEN BEEN RELEASED YET YOU ASS CLOWN!

Another Analyst and another stupid "prediction". The 360 sold out, just like the PS3 and Wii(maybe) will sell-out, simply because it's a new product and there is more demand than there is supply. I think it won't be until next X-Mas before we start to have a clear leader in the console "war". But you know what? Who cares! As long as my system continues to have games on it I enjoy I could care less how the other systems sell.

You guys are over-analysing the situation. Its pretty simple: 360 just inst that compelling of a system.

The fact that PStwo outsells 360 (even when shortages were no longer an issue) proves that people dont feel 360 is worthwhile. The adopters are mainly XBOX hardcores who are into XBOX mainstay of FPSs; since XBOX1.0 has long been left for dead, they need to move onto 360.

Everyone else: 360 = big freaking wup ... Wii will have a larger install base by end of fiscal.

"And there has been a long drought between titles for the Xbox 360. Thankfully Gears of War, Lost Planet, Rainbow Six: Vegas and a few others will take up the slack for Q4."

They've been saying stuff like that forever... 'oh, you just wait till such and such comes out'. Its not gonna get easier with real next gen. competition coming on line. Gears will sell well no doubt, but, can it sell consoles ... because it cant then its a failure.

LMFAO #22.

you think 80 percent of PS2 owners will buy final fantasy this holiday?

thats pretty freakin funny considering youre a japanese game loving fairy who wacks off to gay porn like all japanese people, like anime, has a pokemon keychain, etc, etc. fuckin fairy.

80 million people in this world do not fit that description.

as for that BMW faggot, he's full of shit. if i had an M3 i would not be on the internet writing comments on a joystiq board. fuckin faggot.

Of course. You can't call it a success when a current-gen console is kicking its ass everywhere.

Let's just hope the coming FPS can live up to the hype.

To tell you guys the truth, I've been extremely disappointed with the games released for all consoles this year, especially nearing Christmas. I usually purchase about a game per month, but this year, I've only purchased 3 so far instead of 10. I'm sorry, but I can afford to buy whatever systems I like but for me there's still no compelling reason to do so. The 360 sure does have a weak lineup for holidays, but IMO, so do all the consoles. It's tough to judge which turd will float to the top of the bowl this holiday season.

Maybe I'll go play my Dreamcast or something....

Er... @ 29 MaX PL. Dude, first of all you are a racist, making all your comments irrelevant. Maybe you're just angry that the Xbox 360 is doing poor in sales, because you... have... halo Key Chains... or something. So you obviously drive a tri-cycle, which is why you're on the Joystiq boards? Please tell me MaX PL.

I declare today National Fanboy Flamewar Day...

...er uh that's every day here on ol' Joystiq...

wow you dopes need to relax.

while the 360 hasn't taken over the world, it sure hasn't been a failure. 4.5M actual v. 5M expected is a difference of 10%, and that's not huge.

it won't even be possible to know how the ps3 v 360 thing will play out until the sony's get fully to market, and that might not be until next summer. that's when normal consumers (as opposed to foul mouthed gamer brats) will start buying, and as we all saw with psp v ds things can take unexpected turns mighty quickly.

right now it's still anyone's ballgame.

@29 "as for that BMW faggot, he's full of shit. if i had an M3 i would not be on the internet writing comments on a joystiq board"

I wouldn't say that. I drive a Porsche, and I browse the Joystiq board.

@Evan

It's probably a 944 :)

The 944 was on Car and Driver's Ten Best list from 1983 through 1985, and the Turbo made the list for 1986.

@ERrrr

Compared to other vehicles from 1983-1986 :)

#34 has it right. It will not be until next year, when Sony, Nintendo, and Msall have systems in stock that we will see where the chips fall. That said, coming out first usually does have disadvantages. MS is experiencing that now. The PS2 was not dead yet, and consumers are still buying it and software for it. Is the 360 doing good, yes it is. But to depend on Gears of War and Rainbow Six and COD to sell your system is foolhardy. These games all target the same market, not expand it. Halo 3 will sell them some systems, but MS needs to diversify. Lost Planet will be awesome, the question is will it be enough to stave off the low priced Wii or the high tech PS3? Either way, consumers win.

Why are we talking about Cars? Who Cares?

Us, apparently.

wow didn't know this would turn into such a bashfest, it's like all the sony fanboys huddle together whenever anyone says anything bad about the 360. I can't wait till the PS3 comes out and everyone does a 180 when they realize they paid 200 bucks more for the same console. I mean I havent seen ONE good thing about the PS3 lately, not to mention the PSP which noone cares about anymore. I don't care what people say about the 360, it's not going out like the Dreamcast. Everyone forgets Halo and Gear of war. because without games a console will always fail. What does Sony have anymore? MGS and ? maybe god of war? just because the PS2 is outselling the 360, doesn't mean that the 360 is a failure, it's a cheaper system... so what will people think when they see a 600 dollar game console and a 400 dollar game console, which one will they pick? it's really as simple as that. plus the fact that Sony has overhyped the shit out of the PS3. But thats just me, you can flame all you want, but I don't know anyone who's excited about the PS3's price tag...

racist?

making fun of the FACT that japanese people are all little kids is not racism.

why is it that no other parts of the world have grown ups who look up to images of pokemon or final fantasy characters. or think porn is the best thing in the world? its because everyone else is normal and the japanese live a fairytale of a life.

ERrrr... Overhyped? Is the PS3 collaborating with MTV to persuade couch potatoes like yourself to stand-up and walk to the video game store to buy an Xbox 360? Zecon360? (The name makes you a sure fanboy) Does the Xbox 360 carry with it a Blu-Ray Drive for Video Games? Don't even talk about the HD-DVD, it has nothing to do with video games. And you haven't even mentioned the Wii, because you have X's alll over your brain.

Max PL, if anyone is a little kid, it is yourself. Your arrogance is racist. Japanese is full of little kids? At least their president isn't a little kid. For George Bush, the whole world is a video game, all he has to do is press a button. The ignoramus cannot even speak English. Stop criticizing the Japanese and criticize your back-yard. Idiot.

Do you work as marketing PR for Sony or something? Noone, and I mean noone besides fanboys care about it? what does it offer people who don't have HD? anything?
But of course those people are beneath you, because if you can shell out 600 bucks, then a 1080p hi def set must be chump change. And yes it is overhyped, do you sit at home and say "WOw, I can't wait till when Sony tells me the next gen has started." And Sony online will be just as weak as last gen, their online is more comparable to the original Xbox's than even come close to 360's. I can't wait till people get on PS3's online and get at least half their team teamkilling each other, because what are you gonna do get them banned? It's free online!

BMWM3P, you're one of those little weiner guys aren't you? it's ok, but to admit you're older and talk about a car you really don't have on a game forum...well, that's just sad. poor poor little weiner guy.

i agree with number 17 but you cant deny that the genisis and dreamcast had some incredibly fun games, for instance when i get bored with shiny new graphics is hook up my dreamcast and play some good ol fishin

And I wouldn't bring up the MTV thing, unless you were at "Gamer Day" that Sony held.

Microsoft will inevitably put Sony out of business. This is an uphill battle that Sony cannot afford to fight.

They just took out a multi-billion dollar loan and theyre banking on their BluRay bullshit to take off. That doesnt and Sony is done. Sony has lost most of its exclusive titles and this time around the 360 has a more promising lineup. Gears of War is only one title, lets not forget that other little game called Halo.

Just remember fanboys and girls, Bill Gates has more money personally then Sony does as an entire company. Microsoft is not going anywhere. Sony cant afford to play this game and by doing so this may be their last console.

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Analyst: Xbox 360 sales "below expectations"

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