5 reasons why Sony won't lose the next-gen console war
by Blake Snow 
{ Oct 27th 2006 at 2:55PM }
No home console maker (excluding handhelds) has ever dominated three generations of video games. None. Is there a 10-year or two-term incumbent cycle in the biz? Game Daily doesn't think so offering an opinion piece on why Sony won't lose the next-gen war in terms of market share. From the article: "Despite [recent] setbacks and all the negative press the company has garnered over the last six or so months, when it's all said and done the PlayStation 3 will be No.1 worldwide, although not as dominant as the PS2 has been."How does Sony today compare to Nintendo of 1995 who were just about to lose an intended three-peat to the PlayStation? Throw in a third player with a solid second console offering and deep pockets, and it could be a whole new ball game.
[Thanks, James]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
vaylen @ Oct 27th 2006 2:59PM
The most important reason?
Because building on the PS2 awareness is an unbeatable advantage.
Ethan @ Oct 27th 2006 2:59PM
well duh.
vaylen @ Oct 27th 2006 2:59PM
Bottom line: When you dominate a market that's 20% of the market share, as long as you are very competitive in the other two markets, you win win.
pandlcg @ Oct 27th 2006 3:00PM
I doubt that sony will "lose" this war in terms of total units sold; however, i do think that they'll lose significant ground compared to where they were in this last generation.
JodyAnthony @ Oct 27th 2006 3:06PM
I hate when people say something will 'win' or 'lose' when it comes to the consoles. the fact is, WE are the only winners, because there are THREE great companies pumping out quality products for our entertainment.
Now on to this post: As someone that much prefers Nintendo games, I have to admit, I really do see PS3 having the biggest marketshare, if only based on the popularity of the Playstation brand name. With that being said, however, I do think that the 'race' will be MUCH closer this time, no more 4-to-1 odds in Sony's favor, maybe closer to 1.5-to-1
But go ahead everyone and fight as to why your console is better and everyone else's sucks. I'll just sit back and enjoy the games for ALL the systems (gotta get ps3 eventually, I mean, I need to play Suikoden VI)
crono141 @ Oct 27th 2006 3:36PM
The most important reason?
Because building on the SNES awareness is an unbeatable advantage.
Jonathan @ Oct 27th 2006 3:11PM
If they lower the price and release Final Fantasy XIII as an exclusive, then I'm there! In the meantime I'll be playing with my DS...
ill trooper @ Oct 27th 2006 3:18PM
Fasten your seatbelts, it's about to get FANtastical in here...
Pedro Van Faulk @ Oct 27th 2006 3:22PM
I'm really tired of PS3 online being used as an example. They made the same damn promises with the ps2 and had no intention of delivering. People need to stop believing in this magical little money fairy that allows a company with a fraction of MS's assets to do afford something MS cannot afford. It just doesn't make sense.
Shiroikaze @ Oct 27th 2006 3:23PM
The fact of the matter is, Microsoft did not aggressively court Square-Enix enough. If the past is any indication (NES, SNES, PS, PS2), the console that holds exclusive rights to the Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy franchises has walked away with market share victory in Japan and, later, the rest of the world (where said franchises have less of an impact). I really am beginning to wonder whether Microsoft is really serious about being #1 (worldwide) in the gaming market. If I was Bill Gates (or Peter Moore), and I really wanted the Xbox to succeed in Japan, I would have thrown $500 million out of my back pocket at S-E and request FFXIII to be an exclusive Xbox360 title. And guess what? The systems would sell. S-E would have nothing to lose with their development costs funded, and 360s would fly off the shelves in Japan.
Blue Dragon will help them, but not save the console. The fact of the matter is, Square is supporting the 360 as a "good-will gesture". They couldn't have believed that FFXI would sell decently, and I believe they were simply using its sales numbers as an excuse to shift development responsibilities toward the "more profitable" PS3. I find this ironic since it is Square-Enix, themselves, who are making the PS3 profitable by doing so.
That being said, I own all the consoles of this gen, and will be buying the Wii at launch and the PS3 sometime next year with FFXIII and MGS4, after all you "beta testers" are done returning the faulty units being shipped at launch >=)
johnjacob @ Oct 27th 2006 3:24PM
Here's 5 reasons why Sony will lose
1.Price
2.Price
3.Price
4.Price
5.Price
OK nerds economics class is over
Miniboss @ Oct 27th 2006 3:23PM
I'm not sure if I agree with the feeling that Sony will be the hands-down winner. Everyone thought this about the N64 as well, back in the day.
If history can teach us anything about the gaming industry, it's that even the seemingly unbeatable juggernauts can be brought down. Everyone used to associate playing games with "playing Nintendo". And now, everyone seems to associated playing games with "playing PlayStation".
The Sony of today reminds me so much of the Nintendo of about 10 years ago. The landscape is a bit different in terms of competitors, but Kutaragi is essentially the spitting PR image of Yamauchi.
And if history has taught us anything, it's that the most powerful console is never the winner. The NES was bested by the Sega Master System. The Genesis and SNES days were an odd time as Genesis was leading initially, but then the SNES surpassed it due to some questionable actions on Sega's part. The GameBoy has always had more technologically advanced competition (with the DS following suit), but it has remained on top. The PlayStation beat out the technically superior N64 (although the PSone did have a CD drive). And finally, the PS2 beat out both the GameCube and Xbox. Perhaps you could argue that the PS2 outperformed the Dreamcast, but again, Sega is a bit of a wildcard when it comes to the console industry.
With all of that said, I think it might be good for Sony to have a humbling experience. Look what it did for Nintendo. Instead of cornering the market, they had to learn how to adapt and come up with new ways to win other than just by technical achievements alone. While I don't wish any ill-will on Sony, I do think that a drop from the top would help them to regain their focus instead of trying to strongarm their way into everyone's living room with their hidden agendas.
All in all, I think that having different console leaders every so often can only help the industry. It would be nice to have everyone at even levels, but that may never happen again.
Scott @ Oct 27th 2006 3:25PM
...not for nothing.
But isn't the PS2 going to be the winner for at least another 2 or 3 years? Probably more?
SecondChance @ Oct 27th 2006 3:24PM
"when it's all said and done the PlayStation 3 will be No.1 worldwide, although not as dominant as the PS2 has been."
Hmm, Emotion Engine... check. Massive shortages.. check. European delay... check. Price point higher than any other mainstream console before it... check. Questionable marketing practices... check. DRM... check. Rootkit... check. Loss of title exclusivity... check. Looming price cuts and lower price points from your closest competitors... check. Profits failing due to hardware defects in other roducts... check. Unproven DVD format... check.
Yup, they're right, this system can't possibly lose.
PJ @ Oct 27th 2006 3:25PM
I think that the ps3 will be big, but not as big as the 360. Both will be huge and people will be freaking out about both. In my opinion i think that the 360 will be better. =)
LaughingTarget @ Oct 27th 2006 3:26PM
JodyAnthony ftw on this section. I also agree on Suikoden VI.
Adv2k1 @ Oct 27th 2006 4:14PM
all his arguments are weak.
Japan is right for the picking by NIntendo. The DS has proven that it DOESN"T want better graphics, but unique experience is better, that is why PSP is destroyed in Japan.
Sony name is tore up recently with the battery controversy and high price point lots of people will be "hell with that I'll buy a wii or 360 thats to expensive". I wouldn't be surprised if high amount of PS3's are defective just like ps2, and with blueray it will be more of a big deal. People were angry about 360 not working 100%, now PS3 people will be furious about because they paid $600 for something not to work right, and with 360 and Wii ready they do have a choice.
Well Gears of War may just give 360 a shot in the arm that it needs. 6 million is nothing to laugh about, Sony won't have 6 million PS3's ready before mid 2008.
Just the way of numbers PS3 will have the least on the market with a higher cost, so hard to find and expensive to boot. THat will HURT bigtime.
With PS3 being so expensive I doubt "exclusive" will ring true to Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid and others. Wasn't "Assassans Creed" and exclusive game?
Exclusivity means nothing, and Wii can only have exclusivity because its controller is so different.
Blueray will fail just like HDTV's failed. It's a growing market...Yeah it was realeased in what 1999 and yet the vast minority have HDTV's. Most don't even know they don't have HD and have "hd ready" but are to stupid to know the difference. Most people want HDTV's but most don't have it. With blueray average people will say "oh thats nice" and not care. Niche market are people who buy super high tech when it comes out, vast majority wait for it.
PS3 alienates average consumers with its big price tag. PS3 doesn't seem intresting to nongamers what so ever.
That only leaves the rich/super fanboys who have been saving for year or so already.
You can not rely on your hardcore base to win. You have to reach out, PS3 doesn't reach out. Wii reaches out, and 360 sort of does, but no way you cut it high price, and low amount of systems and no major game in the near future (MGS4,FF13 and others are not coming out until late 07 at the earliest) all these things are HORRIBLE FOR SONY.
Sony will be last this generation and will not be in the market for the next one. This will be Sony's final system because before 2010 the company will no longer exist.
SecondChance @ Oct 27th 2006 3:30PM
Sorry for the double post...but I think an important point needs to be made in regards to this:
"Now on to this post: As someone that much prefers Nintendo games, I have to admit, I really do see PS3 having the biggest marketshare, if only based on the popularity of the Playstation brand name."
The Playstation brand is a myth. Tell me, what did the first P in PSP stand for? Brand means something, but the Playstation brand specifically is already on the decline. I didn't say it's failing, but certainly on the decline. Sony's going to have to rely on somethign else this time around, if they can.
ViEt pRiDe @ Oct 27th 2006 3:31PM
Here's another reason Sony won't lose:
NEWSFLASH:
PS3 more powerful than the computer powering the USAF's next-generation F-22 Raptor fighter! Concerns that America's enemies may use it to leapfrog US military capabilities!
http://www.defensetech.org/archives/002897.html
I sent this hot tip in to joystiq, we'll see if they use it.
Deprincer @ Oct 27th 2006 3:34PM
Whoa, comment #12 "Second Chance" TOTALLY nailed it! On the ball my friend! :D
LaughingTarget @ Oct 27th 2006 3:39PM
ViEt_pRiDe -
The three year old AMD64 in my PC is more complicated than the one in the F-22. Military technology doesn't require a lot of computing power. America's nuclear missiles still run on 1970's hardware. It is the software and specialty hardware components that make the F-22 what it is. A computer can't make any old plane stealthy nor can it make the targeting system as good.
crono141 @ Oct 27th 2006 3:36PM
ViEt pRiDe
Kinda like we were all scared Saddam Hussein and the chinese would use the chips in the PS2 for ICBM guidance systems.
Yeah, its just hype.
mykie @ Oct 27th 2006 3:39PM
Purely looking at video game history, you will find that the most powerful system in a single generation has never been #1.
Going backwards: The PS2 outsold Dreamcast, Xbox GCN. PS1 outsold Saturn, N64, 3DO, Jaguar. SNES outsold Neo-Geo, Genesis, TG16. NES outsold Sega Master System, Atari 7800...and so on...
There may be other factors in play here, but who knows. Not to say that PS3 will flop, I just don't think it will be #1.
Also, if history is any indicator, never has a single company won 3 times in a row, nor has anyone "come back from the dead" like Nintendo aims to.
What I think doesn't help for Sony is the lack of available units and waning consumer confidence. Maybe the PS3 will pick up steam, but will it be enough with Microsoft already working on the next Xbox system? Will Nintendo pull out all the technological stops and release a 1080p-capable, hard-drive equipped, Wii2 in 2-3 years time? Will a 4th company jump into the game with a 3.6ghz system with 1gb of ram and blow my assertion out of the water?
One thing Sony has going for it is stability, and they can wait out a sales draught, while vomiting cash to put hardware in people's homes. Eventually the units will sell.
All's I know is that you'd have to be some kind of super-genius to accurately predict the outcome of this generation war. I'm on the edge of my seat!
mmagic @ Oct 27th 2006 3:42PM
johnjacob
price will affect certain people but not all people
so price will not bring it down . One thing economy has shown us is in time of prosperity human will pay for commodities no matter the value . and guess what economy is doing pretty good so don't expect that to bring it down .
people are buying 3000, 6000 for electronics. more people are buying trucks and SUV's then any other time and they know gas is gonna keep going up . we are seeing the highest debt ratio in history right now and why to own things you can't afford.
so a lesson to you in economy don't underestimate the populace in a growing economy.
Scott @ Oct 27th 2006 3:43PM
...this round will be very similar to the Genesis vs. SNES - where people could argue about who won depending on their point of view. Just a guess...
joseph @ Oct 28th 2006 7:40PM
Only time will tell.....
Anna @ Oct 27th 2006 3:54PM
#17 - ViEt pRiDe,
Back in the day, It was claimed that the PS2 was powerfull enough to guide a missle, and japan was talking export control on it.
I didn't see any evil dictator, with Missles being controlled by PS2s...
BMWM3P @ Oct 27th 2006 4:50PM
Over 200 million consoles sold and you dare say the Playstation brand is a myth, I swear most people here are retarded. Playstation will continue to dominate and probably shut down one of its competitors this gen. The 360 has nothing going for it except for dumb excecutives who think that they can buy their way into the market. This mediocre product from an evil company which keeps losing billions of dollars is trying to change the market for the worst.
Sony will wipe the floor again with ms who will lose so much money that investors will shut xbox down.
Triforceowner @ Oct 27th 2006 3:50PM
James Brightman starts off by telling us the PS3 will sell well, because of the brand name. He than tells us the name is the king of consoles just like how Nintendo was the name in the late 80's and early 90's. So wouldn't comparing Sony currently to Nintendo right before Nintendo's reign ended be predicting Sony's doom?
Than Mr. Brightman goes on to tell us that the 360 is not selling as well as it should, and gives us fall information. He tells us Microsoft wants to sell ten million units by the end of 2006, but Microsoft wants to sell 10 million units by the end of their first fiscal year (March 2007). This means Microsoft planned to sell around 7.5 million 360's by the end of 2006, and they are dead on track for that, maybe being under by .5 million at the end of the year, but still relatively on track.
Than Mr. Brightman compares how the PS2 sells compared to how the 360 sells on the market. He says the 360 does not sell so well, because there is no "killer app," but just a collection of good and great games. What Mr. Brightman didn't tell you is the the PS2 never had a "killer app," but a collection of great games. There was no one game the PS2 was purchased for, and yet it sold 100 million units, so this can't be the reason the 360 isn't selling "under its prediction."
Let's get one thing striaght: The Japanese electronic market is incredibly xenophoebic. The XBox will never sell more than the Playstation in Japan until at least 2031. But how does the Wii selling well, because of its innovative controller, have to do with helping the PS3 in sales? It seems like this article is more of an anti-Microsoft article than a pro-Sony article.
"We think the combination of the Blu-ray medium and the Cell processor will lead to a noticeable difference between the visuals of the PS3 and the Xbox 360." Too bad there's absolutely no evidence backing this claim. Saying the PS3 looks as good as the 360 and will look better in a few years is just as moronic as concluding their are paradise marshes on Venus. Here's a question: If Microsoft developed the 360 GPU specifically for HD gaming, why would they use a format they knew wouldn't hold up in a few years? P.S. PC games have fit on Dual Layered DVD's, and they must contain large resolution images. Also note that many other analysts believe devlopers are trying to fill the Blu-ray disc, not having to resort to the Blu-ray disc. No one was developing a game for the 360 and than canceled it for the PS3 because of the disc size.
Will the online be any good, and isn't the Wii's online free? Again, Mr. Brightman seems to be making an anti-360 article. Oh, and don't forget Gran Turismo HD will cost $400-$1000 to complete 100%.
"But at the end of the day Sony will have done the 'impossible' by winning three console generations in a row." This sentence seems oddly positive that Sony will win a third generation, this is only a prediction with no facts to back it up. It is a prediction with only more predictions to back it up, and those predictions are based on poor evidence.
In conclusion this article is 1) not pro-Sony but anti-360, 2) based on no facts, only theories, and 3) hardly worth the time it took to read and rebuttle it.
The PS3 will sell fine, it will have good games, and I am not a fanboy.
Evan @ Oct 27th 2006 3:50PM
I agree with the article about one thing: Microsoft squandered its lead!
Microsoft had a year to build up a catalog of games, but they have barely touched most genres of games. Two kid-friendly games isn't going to convince parents to but a 360 under the Christmas tree. One J-RPG isn't going to sell many systems in Japan. Games sell the system! The way things are shaping up, the PS3's will have a better game catalog in all categories, except FPSs, by Christmas 2007. And that shouldn't be possible.
If Sony "wins" this generation, it will not be because Sony did anything right (so far they've done everything wrong), it will be because Microsoft sat on their asses and let Sony win.
Chris @ Oct 27th 2006 3:58PM
The selling point for PS3 for me was made yesterday when I learned Nippon Icchi games are being developed for it. I'm sure they will look not much different then PS@ games, but I gotta have my Disgaea. Still it will be a few years before I am willing to drop a grand on a video game machine.
Usedtabe @ Oct 27th 2006 3:58PM
Viet Pride,
Did you notice the sentence in the parenthesis right after the PS3 comparison? Here ya go:
"Today, a Playstation 3 meets or exceeds this performance, for $600 instead of perhaps $30,000,000. (Of course, the F22's avionics are considerably more robust and presumably more reliable.)"
Hmm....old technology more reliable than a PS3, who woulda thunk it lol
Lost Question @ Oct 27th 2006 4:03PM
so the ps 3 will have free internet*. wow wii don't think nintendo has that on there next gen console.
Free internet can be defined in many different ways. By free they probably mean with the least cost to sony.
ViEt pRiDe @ Oct 27th 2006 4:02PM
Anna, thats probably because steps were taken to control its export... besides that, how would we know if someone actually did use the PS2 innards for missile guidance systems? Its not like they would slap a big "powered by sony' sticker on the side, and if the missiles haven't been used yet, then there would be no way for the average Jane to know. As for the current article, its not hype or bs as some here dismiss it, the article is from a respected military technology blog, and they are concerned about this possibility.
Just imagine if some country made a low cost new UAV design, with one 'master' UAV that did all the targetting/communications, with a Cell Broadband Engine onboard, and 7 smaller bomb-carrying 'slave' UAVs, each controlled by a PPE. They could build a force of these on the cheap, and leapfrog what the US has, despite its bloated runaway defense budget.
Not that this would neccessarily be a bad thing, it might put a damper on the apparently irresistible urge to bomb any country the US government disagrees with back into the stone age, but I digress ;)
james f. @ Oct 27th 2006 4:06PM
Five Reasons for success, only one truely compelling, versus how many reasons for failure?
The sony brand recoginition IS extremely high and that reputation was built on the best marketing/percieved value/pricing strategy. For this gen I have no doubts that their marketing machine will be at full clip. But whatbout value? The price sucks PERIOD. The games? Resistance looks cool and thats about it in the "launch window". And hell wii sports looks cooler than resistance and its "free".
Lets face it. Sony has married one of its oh so few blue chips left the playstation brand, to its last bid for consumer electronics relevance, blue-ray. And in the process they have asked the people that have kept them in business(namely us) to pay their marker in a poker game for their corporate lives. This flys directly in the face of everything that once made them a relevant console builder. Will it pay off? I dunno, and neither does anyone else. And Wall Street certainly doesnt think so. The masses are going to wait for a price drop just like they are doing right now with the 360 or they are going to go buy a wii and some ps2 greatest hits titles.
It's hard to honestly say anything better than a draw for sony this gen.
Jarrett @ Oct 27th 2006 4:07PM
@ Triforceowner:
"Let's get one thing striaght: The Japanese electronic market is incredibly xenophoebic"
Couldn't agree with you more. I read article after article as to why the X-Box was not popular in Japan. One of the top two reasons was it was bulky and took up to much space. Fair assesment. Then you look at the video of the PS3 and that bad boy is huge. But I bet there will not be a complaint by Japanese consumers that it is too bulky and takes up to much space. It is a well known fact American made products struggle in Japan. From cars, to electronics, to textile. As hard as MS might try they will never be successful there. What MS should do is flood the Chinese market with the 360. That is fastest growing gaming community on the planet and to think....China is not thrilled with Japanese products ...MS could work that to their advantage.
johnjacob @ Oct 27th 2006 6:29PM
Mmagic
Sony will sell out their first 10 or 20 million consoles at $500 and $600 price points.But what after that?Some of you seem to think that this year the PS3 is going to be $600 and next year Sony will dramatically drop the price to $300 and the next year in 2008 it will reach that mass market price of $199 or lower.It's not going to work that way.It will be another 5 years if ever when Sony will be able to reach the mass market at sub $199 price points.
Microsoft is most likely going to double the amount of consoles it ships in 2007 and will probably do a price drop.More games will be available for the 360 in 2007.More 360 consoles are going to be available in 2007 compared to 2006.The availability of consoles and games will drive sales each other.Microsoft could easily sell 20 million consoles in 2007.That means by the end of 2007 MS could have an installed base of 30 million consoles compared to PS3's 10 million.In 2008 MS will ship even more consoles at a lower manufacturing cost at a lower retail price with even more games.Sony will still be in that high end early adoptor stage selling PS3s for $400 compared to MS's sub $199 price points.Game makers will have no choice but to make their best games for the highest installed base.
With every console MS sells that canabilizes a future PS3 sale because most casual gamers dont buy 2 consoles.Microsoft plans on globalizing the games industry by selling millions more consoles than Sony ever did by expanding into new markets like India and China.This could potentially allow the retail price of games to come down forcing sony to lower the price of their games thus lowering the profitability of their per unit games sales.
Brandon @ Oct 27th 2006 8:11PM
Sony won't lose the PS3 cause they will come up with the best games anybody has ever seen ; their not like microsoft and rush their consoles.So no Sony willnot lose this console.
TheLostSkeleton @ Oct 27th 2006 4:14PM
"...when it's all said and done the PlayStation 3 will be No.1 worldwide, although not as dominant as the PS2 has been."
You know, they said the same thing about the Nintendo 64.
twh @ Oct 27th 2006 4:16PM
I think Jody got it right.
WE all win. WE are the champions... of the world!
Why? Because companies are going to try and make great games. And that's what it's all about. the games!
Tacoman @ Oct 27th 2006 4:18PM
A lot of the comments seem to entirely ignore Nintendo as a contender. Looking at the Japanese market, where DS Lite sells more than all other hardware combined at a 4-to-1 ratio, the Wii is poised to take the market purely by having the supplies that Sony right now can't compete with. 100,000 units is not a console launch. XBox is a non-entity, the reasoning I see is: when I can get my Mario and Zelda on Nintendo, and my Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy on Playstation, what use is there for XBox?
America will be a bit harder to call. XBox is selling extremely well, but I still feel it lacks a killer app, the closest thing being Dead Rising at the moment. With the release of the Wii and its flood of titles, including Zelda: Twilight Princess, which we can file under "killer app," I think we'll see a shift in the first 6 months of 2007. Sony currently does not have the units to compete, and quite frankly, the launch lineup is pathetic. I think it will sell, to a point, on name-recognition, but the entry fee is going to be a major hurdle once we get beyond early adopters. The main obstacle I see for Nintendo is that to continue selling consoles, people are going to have to try out the controller first-hand and get a good feel of what it can do before they invest. The price point is still very attractive and I believe that will pay off this holiday season and fiscal year. Just a few more weeks and we can see. But I think we can all agree it's going to be interesting.
Chucky\'s Cat @ Oct 27th 2006 4:21PM
#11 explained it best. Does the PS2 fanbase have the budget to become part of the PS3 fanbase? Doubting it. As the PS3 launch approaches the PS3 fanboys are facing the reality that they won't be able to afford the console they desire. The solution: They become a PS3 KIOSK fanboys!
ymmv @ Oct 27th 2006 4:33PM
I think the Wii is going to kill the PS3 in Japan, just like the DS killed the PSP. Japanese consumers are more interested in original gameplay than cutting-edge technology. If technology ruled, than the PSP should have dominated the Japanese market with its faster CPU, highres graphics and large screen. It didn't work out that way and currently the DS is outselling the PSP every single week.
The same will most likely happen with the Wii which will also be technologically inferior to the PS3 but also features a new controller method and more family-oriented fun games.
I'm not so sure about the success of the Wii on the US and European market. Western adult gamers are looking for different kinds of games than the Wii offers and in the long run when HD starts to dominate the Wii's standard res graphics and stereo sound will look outdated and cheap compared to what the 360 and PS3 have to offer. I expect the Wii to be found mostly in children's rooms in a few years just like other Nintendo consoles before it.
Tyler @ Oct 27th 2006 4:37PM
@ #33.
I did a paper for my international business class in college last semester that explained how and why China is important for the Xbox 360 in this generation for global marketshare. Cool how some of us think alike.
m3mnoch @ Oct 27th 2006 4:45PM
"Purely looking at video game history, you will find that the most powerful system in a single generation has never been #1."
you know what comes along with the most powerful systems too, right? more expensive and late to the party.
microsoft isn't making it up when they say the first one to 10 million units wins -- not just going first, mind you. the first one to 10 million units.
and there's a single, solid reason why: it's all about building enough of an install base to attract top-tier software.
m3mnoch.
mdb @ Oct 27th 2006 4:47PM
I have to agree with number 5, JodyAnthony.
Some people are saying the 360 has failed because of the lack of a "AAA title." AAA title? What's your definition of a AAA title? A title that's good enough to sell a console? Because if that's what you meant, that's what you should have said. When was the last time you saw one?
As far as I can tell, the author is referring to games like Halo 2 and Vice City. Every console is lucky if they have 2 or 3 of these "AAA" titles, so it's not so surprising that Microsoft hasn't come out with one yet. But GoW may be "AAA." If not, Halo 3 has a good chance. The point is, the 360 has enough games out there for every genre, which is a huge selling point comapared to the relatively sparse availability of PS# games (if you can even get a system).
The 360 has done well thus far, and will continue to impress. However, I think any reasonably-minded person can see that this 'console war,' like all others, will probably end in a draw. Maybe one console might have slightly better graphics, or another will have slightly better games, but we've seen it before and we'll see it forever: as long as competition between Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo remains healthy, each one of those systems will probably be a pretty safe choice.
Falcon @ Oct 27th 2006 4:48PM
I've seen a lot of talk about Sony's online service, but there seems to be no information about how we're all going to communicate on this magical, free service. Am I just missing something? I know there's no headset plug-in on that controller, so what gives?
Rhys Corlett @ Oct 27th 2006 4:49PM
That was a good read. I'm a x360 fanboy, but I do think that the PS3 will stay on-top for this round. I do think that the PS3 will drop some out of it's 'god-like status', and that the three big consles will share the market more evenly.
Anyway, he made three good points, and two dumb ones.
1)The Brand
Here in New Zealand the Playstation is in every house and some people haven't even heard of the XBox. That's slowly changing, but people will go with what they think is 'safe'.
2) Microsoft (somewhat) Squandered its Lead
I mostly agree - MS haven't dropped a killer app to tie people to it's system. I can see the logic in using Gear of War to combat the PS3/Wii, but it runs the risk of being lost in the media noise.
I have loved my 360, and it does have a solid pile of games - just nothing two special as of yet.
3) Japan is Ripe for the Taking
Again, I agree - but I'm not sure that I think Japan is as important as this chap does. I think that MS' RPGs might help it gain a bit of mind-share, but the Wii and PS3 are going to make it's sales look pathetic.
4) Blu-ray Will Matter
I mostly disagree with this. It's too much, too soon. And the claim that Resistance looks as good as Gears is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
I'm pretty sure that Blu-ray will prove to be a waste of space.
Near the end of the gen it may come in useful - but I wouldn't put money on it.
5)Free Online
I'm pretty sure I disagree with this too. Until Sony prove that their online system is viable, I'll take this with a pinch of salt.
There are two things that stand out as dumb:
"Meanwhile, the PS3 will offer full online gaming and other online features completely free from day one."
It won't.
"With the inclusion of free online play, publishers know that anybody in the PS3's install base can go online. Not only does that automatically encourage developers to make use of online functionality..."
This is wrong - Sony doesn't have a pre-made online component that the developers can use for instant networkability (al la Live) - all it means is that they will have to re-invent the wheel every time they make a game.
S3MP @ Oct 27th 2006 4:49PM
I think there is alot misconception with gaming blogs like this and people on them. People forget that we are all im assuming hardcore gamers and that is only a minority of the market and when it comes to the rest of the market Names matter. To most people power makes no difference and infact they couldnt give a crap if the wii has motionsensing or the 360 has.......live and the ps3 has blu ray, all the general public know is the ps2 was good and in there eyes (and mine) the ps3 will rock even harder
LaughingTarget @ Oct 27th 2006 4:50PM
viet pride: master of the conspiracy theory. N. Korea has PS2 units, they get them through China.
The Cell doesn't have what it takes to be military hardware. The US military can put in 8 cheap processors into a UAE a lot quicker and cheaper than a single Cell processor. They don't need separate processors to do this even. All the missiles need are a connection to the main processor in the UAE.
Very little is required to get a cruise missile to follow the terrain. It is the algorithm to build such a program and the environmental input sensors that keeps other nations from obtaining the technology. At $600, they'll be getting scrwed out of their money and only get a video game machine hard wired to play video games. Besides, it won't mean squat if they don't have the computer engineers that can develop the proper support technology. Especially when a $10 processor is more than sufficient to pull of what is needed. The $6 million a cruise missile costs doesn't go toward the CPU. It goes to programming, calibration, sensors, mechanical aspects, fuel, support systems, and so on.
Just for reference, FarCry uses around a hundred times more CPU power than any state of the art bunker buster. I have the processing technology to run a cruise missile in my cell phone, which ran me $100. It even has the GPS built right in.