Analyst: Sony will miss PS3 launch targets

by Kyle Orland { Nov 14th 2006 at 5:25PM }

Evidence is beginning to mount that Sony will not be able to meet its target of 400,000 systems for the U.S. PS3 launch this Friday. First, Electronic Arts CFO Loren Jensen shared his belief that Sony's numbers were exaggerated. Then Gamestop announced they would not be able to fill all their PS3 pre-orders, at least not at launch. Now an analyst at Lazard Capital Market has added his voice to the fray, saying he expects only 150,000 - 200,000 PS3 systems to be available on launch day.

While Sony hasn't officially announced any product flow problems (and hasn't yet responded to a request for comment from Joystiq), this public speculation from three respected sources, along with anecdotal evidence from numerous retail employees who have contacted Joystiq, is starting to make us wonder. So while nothing is confirmed yet, don't be surprised if your launch day hunt for a PS3, pre-order or no, is a little harder than you expected.

Tags: ps3, retails, shortage

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

crono141 @ Nov 14th 2006 5:31PM

Even though it would have been suicide, they should have delayed a worldwide launch until march, when they had decent yields and better numbers.

At this rate, litterally, only the rich can get them.

Aex @ Nov 14th 2006 5:31PM

I don't see why Sony would admit to Japan they arent going to meet their measly 100k mark and not admit to America that they aren't going to meet their paltry 400k mark. Sounds like more Analyst bull crap to me.

NJ Mom @ Nov 14th 2006 5:33PM

I thought that was 400,000 for North America, so is the 150,000-200,000 estimate for North America or just the US? And if just the US, what does 150,000-200,000 represent in relation to the original distribution for the US?

DiahrreaMan @ Nov 14th 2006 5:36PM

Hmm, things are going to get very gnarly come Nov. 17. Too bad I don't have that kind of money to fight for one as well. And if I did, I'd buy a Wii in a heartbeat. Please don't flame me for favoring the Wii.

STILL WAITING FOR GOLDEN SUN 3 DAMMIT!

NJ Mom @ Nov 14th 2006 5:39PM

Alex, I imagine because cutting inventory in Japan wouldn't make the Xbox 360 a viable alternative while that possibility exists for North America.

As far as the Wii as an "alternative," I figure Japanese gamers were already planning to get it and it isn't an issue of changing one's mind and picking something else "instead."

Mr. Khan @ Nov 14th 2006 5:44PM

Surprise anyone? No? didn't think so

More Interesting: Pick up this week's Copy of Newsweek

The give the PS3 a glowing review, talking up the impending PS3/360 war, and almost writing off the Wii(it gets 1 paragraph out of a 5 page story)

I think its funny when the mainstream media broaches these subjects, they don't see the potential doom that we see for Sony, all they see is the shiny

Now i'm really interested as to where this console war will go...

Sub @ Nov 14th 2006 5:41PM

Fucking wow. They need to stop fucking lying to us.

Todd @ Nov 14th 2006 5:45PM

I guess I'll wait a year and get a PS3 when there is sufficient units available and the price has been lowered to $300-400. I can't afford to buy from eBay, I can barely afford the $600 as this is a significant chunk from important things, like morgage.

striderhayasa @ Nov 14th 2006 5:47PM

this is getting ridiculous. Sony should have just delayed the PS3 launch until March 07. Now look...this could be the makings of one of the biggest debacles in gaming history...stay tuned!!!!

Javi @ Nov 14th 2006 5:48PM

I don't care if they produce 1 as long as I get it.

NATO_Duke @ Nov 14th 2006 5:48PM

You really think the price will drop to $300-400 in a year? Hell, they will only have released 100k units by then.

This is so typical of Sony and their current failures.

Stop Bytching @ Nov 15th 2006 3:19PM

Im sorry yall must not have seen Sony's slogan "EXPECT NOTHING"

shivr @ Nov 14th 2006 5:57PM

...and the price of those ebay ps3s just increased twofold at least...

fir0n @ Nov 14th 2006 5:57PM

This story jives with the info I got from a Gamespot employee I ran into today in line for Taco John's. He said that they had initially been promised 8 PS3s, but he was just notified they are only getting 6. Now mulitply that by all of the retail locations that are getting PS3s for launch day and it could very well be over 100,000 less than what was promised.

He was bummed that he had to tell 2 of the people that preordered that they weren't getting theirs.

fir0n @ Nov 14th 2006 5:59PM

Of course I meant Gamestop.

ts8lemonade @ Nov 14th 2006 6:03PM

Gamestop manager I talked to said Gamestop is only getting 60% of the units Sony initially told them they would get leaving my Gamestop to get 6 ps3's instead of 8. Sucks for those two guys that preordered it and still won't get it. I'm hoping I'll be able to easily pick up my Wii + Zelda on launch day (I don't have it preordered).

Pince @ Nov 14th 2006 6:06PM

@7

Did you ever see the old Time article that came out just before the Xbox 360 launch (around last fall).

The header is "How Bill Gates built his new game machine—and changed your living room forever"/"Microsoft has finally made...the killer app of video games."

They had a timeline of video game history that did not contain the words "Nintendo Entertainment System" or "NES".(the article they have up online has a modified timeline that still fails to mention the Gamecube and, surprisingly, any Sega console - they mention NeoGeo but not Genesis- what?)

One of the few mentions of Nintendo came at the end of the article when they said they would be interested to see what becomes of Microsoft's Xbox360, Sony's Playstation 3, and Nintendo's "Whatever-they-are -calling-it" (they were generally condescending and dismissive of Nintendo throughout the horribly biased article).

For a second I thought that maybe a Nintendo exec had killed the editor's dog or something...then i realized that every media outlet in the world will gladly whore itself out to be part of the big ugly hype-machine.

Pince @ Nov 14th 2006 6:09PM

correction, the article was earlier than last fall, may of 2005.

Silver @ Nov 14th 2006 6:09PM

Ouch. I think I just heard Darryl wail in pain and agony all the way across the Web.

Rallion @ Nov 14th 2006 6:12PM

Did that post just claim that EA, Gamestop and even ANALYSTS are all "respected sources"?

jarrettcp @ Nov 14th 2006 6:14PM

@ Aex

Dude analyst or not...the numbers weren't adding up. I said this yesterday...there are way too many retail outlets that were being promised units and the numbers weren't jiving. This isn't an analyst thing..this is a Sony fudging the numbers thing. Then on top of that they are going to have to take units from somewhere to have a Taiwan launch. It was inevitable that this was going to come out. So now the question becomes what is Sony going to do for damage control. I do believe they were all on MS ass at this time last year for the same thing. Is this the pot calling the kettle black and now that it is time to pay the piper your looking for excuses. Oh and one more thing....those are numbers with a flawless launch....meaning your PS3 have overheating issues....it will be 30 days before you get a replacement. Your Blu-Ray diode not working properly....30 days for a replacement .... so even if you get one at launch you have to hope that there are no problems...otherwise...it will be after the first of the year before you get another one....good luck.

rasgueado @ Nov 14th 2006 6:14PM

Well... we won't know how many there will actually be until Sony actually says something. The low number of units to me isn't the perplexing thing. What seems strange to me is why Sony is bothering to dump so much money into marketing a product that will be extremely difficult for average joe to go out and buy because there are enough entusiasts who already *want* the product. It just seems like a waste of money... all the bus stop ads, tv spots, newspaper ads, radio, and even probably theatrical commercials (a type of advertising that bugs me to end). There will already be news coverage and hype WITHOUT the ad campaign that it would just seem to make more sense to heavily market the PS3 at a time when there are enough units available for people to just go out and buy. I dunno... maybe that's just me.

Evan @ Nov 14th 2006 6:20PM

@21
Sony is dumping money into those ads in order to scare people away from the 360. They need to make people want a PS3 so much more than a 360, so that those people will wait and go without a high-definition console this Christmas instead of buying an available 360 now.

Joe SMith @ Nov 14th 2006 6:24PM

Sounds like a great opportunity for Wii and 360.

Kayzai @ Nov 14th 2006 6:38PM

When you bring a new Product to the market.

RULE ONE... LAUNCH WITH SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS AND DONT MESS-UP THE LAUNCH.

This PS3 launch is now a debacle.

Let's spare a thought for all the software houses that wont get the opportunity to sell their games as there will not be the PS3s to play them on.

I am beginning to think Sony has been Jinxed, somehow!

goosedude @ Nov 14th 2006 7:03PM

I agree with #9. Sony should have just launched in N. America for XMAS 2006......as Japanese won't buy 360 in huge #s anyway and with the Wii going after a completely demographic it made no sense to give them just 80,000 units.

As for # 22.....i feel bad for my siblings who would love to get a PS3 and have the money to spend but alas cannot take the time out of their schedule to wait in line because they are responsible parents.

For the next console launch stores should take PAYMENT IN FULL instead of deposits on a machine...as this weeds the people that actually want the machine from the profiteers (at least the poor ones). They make more money from the money in the bank....and they don't oversell their allotments.

One of the more disturbing things I saw when I pre-ordered my PS3s......whiskey tango female forcing her baby to wait in line with her.....so she could resell the PS3 on ebay. Whattup with that??

Covenant @ Nov 14th 2006 7:27PM

Speaking as someone who runs the Games dept. at a Best Buy, I can say that our initial order has been cut by about 20%. That jibes with what this article is implying.

Sizer @ Nov 14th 2006 7:51PM

Todd, the PS3 will never drop $200 in just one year, unless it's such a failure that they are forced to to get units out. They are already taking a huge loss for every one they sell, and before they can drop the price they need to reduce manufacturing costs enough to make it profitable or at least break even.

Three years from now, sure.

Sizer @ Nov 14th 2006 7:54PM

> I am beginning to think Sony has been Jinxed, somehow!

Blu-Ray (and the difficulty they've had getting the technology working) is the cause of every single one of these delays and shortages. Sony considers it more important than anything else to trojan horse this technology into your living room and win the HD format war.

dendo @ Nov 14th 2006 8:01PM

this so called analyst works for Nintendo, you guys know that right?

yea, keep that in mind.

p-diddy @ Nov 14th 2006 8:13PM

What are you talking about?? The 360 is totally $100 less than it was a year ago. And the PS2 was totally $100 less a year after it launched. Oh wait, they weren't.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2#Price_history

The only one that did was the original XBox. Keep waiting... it should only be 2 or so years.

-p-

truthseeker @ Nov 14th 2006 8:10PM

My buddy delivered some bad news to me today. I was supposed to be getting a ps3 from his large retail chain but he told me that the product shipping is less than 60% of what they had expected. Sony is trying hard to keep this under wraps and telling retailers not to spill the beans on their major PS3 production issues. After the recent PR nightmares they did not want their manufacturing to come into question again. Apparently 150k units is a stretch .

Why even bother launching this year?
Why would I put myself through this pain?

I guess you could always line up at your retailer now - but I am hearing retailers may not even let you do that.

number40one @ Nov 14th 2006 8:11PM

Sony:

Just cut the Blu-Ray. Just cut it now. Sell the units that already have Blu-Ray in them as specialized "collectors item" consoles, and manufacture the rest without it. Once you get the costs and manufacturing under control, you can re-introduce it into the console in a few years. The parceling and re-releasing of technology seems to work very well for Nintendo.

You could very likely still sell the PS3 with the huge hard drive and no Blu-Ray at $500 and make a killing. Bolster up your business. Even Microsoft didn't try to do the whole new console/HD-DVD drive thing in one shebang.

Or does Captain Ahab just gotta get his whale?!

number40one @ Nov 14th 2006 8:20PM

#29 - And how, pray tell, do you know that?

He works for Lazard Capital Markets. Not Nintendo. His job is to make market predictions. He seems to have been doing it for a long time.

Try Google: "Colin Sebastian" or "Lazard Capital Markets"

or, here: http://biz.yahoo.com/a/1/120838.html

or, just keep running your mouth

nick @ Nov 14th 2006 9:42PM

So the PS3 is launching this week, but I've yet to find a display at my local Best Buy. They simply have a poster of the PS3.

In contrast, there's a display for the Wii, which is arriving a couple of days after the PS3. You can physically see the Wii behind plastic, but curiously it's not turned on. Instead there's a video above the unit, showing gameplay.

Milkshake @ Nov 14th 2006 9:56PM

Do you think if this rumour proves to be true then the march lauch for Europe will probably get pushed back untill xmas 2007

James @ Nov 14th 2006 10:41PM

Well, if this turns out true, this is going to be one heck of a disaster for Sony. Their reputation was already bad enough with all the recent news, and now this? Geez, they can't even get a break.

Of course, this is what you get for producing such a high quality product with so many features. Aside from the pricing problem, I guess one should have expected there to be production problems too.

And I bet their investors won't be happy about this either, aside from the hardcore fans wanting PS3s.

daboi @ Nov 14th 2006 11:18PM

Well i work for a retail chain the biggest of them all. and today my boss told me of how we will only be getting as a whole chain less than 7000 ps3 which is alot less than the 40000 to 50000 we were told we would get in the past..he says its because its a recall the ps3 are unale to play ps2 games and dvds..thats what i was told today...if true way to go sony and drop the ball more than you have before...but we are getting 30 wii on sunday and more the next to let u know

DA @ Nov 15th 2006 12:00AM

There was a playable unit at a Target in Southern California this weekend. They had Motor Storm running and I played it, quite enjoyable. Not sure why Best Buy wouldn't get a demo unit on the floor.

Ross @ Nov 15th 2006 2:35AM

Things keep looking better and better for Microsoft (well, except in Japan) and Nintendo. Once Sony gets the supply issue fixed, they still have the price issue to deal with.

Most of my casual gamer friends still haven't picked up a 360 because they think IT is expensive. They consider the cost of the PS3 to be insane.

n8 @ Nov 15th 2006 6:08AM

Saw 10 make it through UPS to Target in 40k person town. I can't believe it'd be too short from what they estimated.
Last year waiting for x360 at target in a town of 340k, there were 26 to go around.
Eitherway, don't listen to what anyones saying. Unless Sony actually says something...it's all up in the air.
GL on getting one, cuz I'm sure as hell not waiting in line this time, nor paying that much till I know i can toss linux on it and make it a nice computer also.

syco @ Nov 15th 2006 8:27AM

Ross, one might consider me a hardcore gamer, and I don't have a 360 because I think it's expensive, because I'm also poor. I've been saving up for the Wii since May. It's going to be a long long time before I think about getting a PS3.

John Lucas @ Nov 15th 2006 9:03AM

Sony is GONE from the gamesindustry by or within 2009.

FACT.

Believe it or don't.
But that is happening.

Michael Jackson just may get full ownership of that ATV catalog yet. Wouldn't THAT be a story?
Serves 'em right the way they sabotaged his Invincible album. And for the way they've been jerking around gameplayers including their blindly loyal fans.

John Lucas

ken @ Nov 15th 2006 5:54PM

I am one of the guys who preordered at gamestop and was told that I would get one on the second shipment.. Yeah it's cool that I only preordered it on dec 3 of 2005. I am a little pissed at Sony, but it's life I guess I will be staring at the screenshots for another few months. And the store was like well if you want you can still buy the games, I asked what's the point if I won't get the system anytime soon.

shawn @ Nov 18th 2006 4:48PM

Wal-Mart decided they wanted to blunder up their PR by putting in their weekly add that they would have absolutely no less than 10 60GB systems at each of their stores.

Here is my unfortunate story: I had called a local Wal-Mart approx. 6:15p Nov. 15 to find out how they were handling the launch. They mentioned that they already had one person in line in electronics dept. but if you fell asleep you went home. I, throwing caution to the wind, decided to make myself #2 in that much saught after short line. When I arrived there was still just the one person ahead of me. We were told my management to wait there in electronics but we could not fall asleep. Then, about 45 min to an hour after I arrived, the management team went outside to set up a waiting area so they could move us outside to wait where we could sleep until launch. Between the time they put up the cones and ropes, came and got us, and we got to the designated area, three people had filled the roped off area that was set up. To my then irate astonishment, the Wal-Mart Management team that had brought us out there told us we had to wait behind the three individuals that made there way to the roped off area while we were being escorted outside. Instead of us being number 1 & 2, we now became 4 & 5(me). So I waited for two nights as Wal-Mart would not tell us how many they were receiving. Come 12:01 on Nov. 17th we were informed that they had received only 4 systems leaving me shafted in an anal raping sort of way. Thank you Sony for the shortage of a life time and thank you Wal-Mart for employing ignorant, wastes of human life that can hardly manage an intelligent thought nevermind a multi-million dollar retail chain location. Please copy and paste my story and send it to anyone and everyone you know in hopes to include Wal-Mart in this Sony launch catastrophe.

Pumaboy @ Nov 23rd 2006 12:58PM

Here is the beauty of Sony. They delayed the launch once already. They then shipped the PS3 when it was clearly not ready and was still too expensive to produce. When they finally make them widely available they might actually make a profit since hardware costs will be down on the new technology they are using. Also just chuck blu ray out the window. No one cares when the capability of downloading movies is becoming more and more. MS did not force the HD DVD on 360 owners, but did offer it as an option. their downloading of movies is the cheapest and most available way of obtaining high quality movies right now. sony tried to do too much at once and I do not think it will pay off. Reminds me of the PSP.