Analyst: Sony to win big in long run
Microsoft's head start will give them the market share lead through 2007, but Sony will win in the long run with almost 60 percent of the market by 2012. That's the determination of research firm Strategy Analytics, whose Connected Home Devices service predicts Sony's 121.8 million PS3s will dwarf Microsoft's 59.7 million Xbox 360s in this console generation. The company sees the Nintendo Wii as almost a non-factor with only 23.3 million units sold through 2012.Among the other predictions in the report:
- 9 million total consoles sold this holiday season
- 39.1 million consoles sold in 2007
- 204.8 million consoles sold through 2012
- 50 percent of all console sales coming from North America this generation.
The report seems to put a lot of stake in the name recognition and current dominance of the PlayStation brand, which will force other console makers to convince consumers to "switch camps." Only time will tell whether customer loyalty can overcome high prices, hardware shortages and heavy marketing from Sony's competitors.
Read - Report summary
Read - Press release announcing results
[Via GameDaily]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Nate @ Nov 16th 2006 6:02PM
If all 3 have good games, they all win.
And so do we.
Marty @ Nov 16th 2006 6:05PM
Hehe, every day we see a new report from an "analyst" that tells us a different company will be the leader in 20XX. With so many of these "analysts" putting out so many conflicting reports, I think the situation is such that nobody really knows what is going to happen. Especially if none of the "experts" seem to agree.
Spore @ Nov 16th 2006 6:05PM
i'll be happy to buy a PS3 as soon as the 1-gen bugs get worked out and... oh... you can actually get one without getting shot at in the streets. And if Blu-Ray wins out by then -> well lucky me.
Pedro Van Faulk @ Nov 16th 2006 6:09PM
120 million ps3s? What are they huffing? This takes the cake as the single stupidest analyst prediction yet.
Alice Unchained @ Nov 16th 2006 6:09PM
A year into the 360, we finally get the system's killer app:
VIVA PINATA
and maybe Gears. See which you spend more time with.
oh, and everybody calm down. that's still a shit load of consoles for all the manufacturers. it only gets better for the gamer (hopefully...)
phantom @ Nov 16th 2006 6:09PM
Meh. The PS3 is an over-engineered, overpriced piece of only-potentially future-proof tech. 360 + Wii = bliss. I'll buy a PS3 (maybe) when it's < $350. Not before then.
The Wii will NAIL the casual gamer/non-gamer market, which I don't think this analyst factos in properly. People who haven't played video games since Pac-Man and Frogger in the arcades (i.e., my parents, their friends, and girls I know) have excitedly asked me about the Wii, so stay tuned!
LK @ Nov 16th 2006 6:11PM
Can Sony even produce that many PS3s? And by selling that much, would they really win big as they lose $250+ for each console sold?
Sony has fucked every single one of its consumers, and now it seems they will fuck themselves last.
matt121 @ Nov 16th 2006 6:12PM
not a chance
120 mill ps3s at $600 wtf is this guy smoking
Vince @ Nov 16th 2006 6:14PM
"i'll be happy to buy a PS3 as soon as the 1-gen bugs get worked out..."
There's one sure way to guarantee avoiding the "1-gen" bugs while still purchasing your hardware the minute it appears at your local games store, and it works for all gaming hardware...
move to Europe. :p
Alice Unchained @ Nov 16th 2006 6:15PM
I really can't see non-gamers suddenly getting excited about video games because Nintendo designed a new motion sensing controller. I don't give a f*ck what they say, my parents and older sisters aren't going to sit around playing the Wii. And my grandparents for sure ain't gonna sit around flailing their arms to a bowling game. So what kinda bullshit is Nintendo really talkin here??
The Radical Cleric @ Nov 16th 2006 6:15PM
I'm so confused. So is caffeine good for you or not?
FSK405K @ Nov 16th 2006 6:16PM
What's in today's seven-day forecast, Forbes/Strategy Analytics/Newsweek/etc.?
SP @ Nov 16th 2006 6:17PM
There is no way Sony can sell over 100 million consoles with a $600 console When it drops in price, it isn't reasonable to think that it will drop to less than $400. The least it could reach is maybe $300 when the PS4 is getting close to coming out. The PS2 sold so many consoles becuase it sold to casual gamers. People like my younger sister who had my parents buy it for her because it plays DVDs and a few cartoony games. Or my cousin who is older with a PHD and played a few games on it when he first got it, but then stopped playing for the most part. Sony has decided not to go after this type of customer. The hard core gamer crowd is not able to buy 100 million consoles. These analysts are basing their numbers off of past performance, but they don't have an understanding that the PS2 and the PS3 are fundamentally different consoles. The only console that has the potential to sell over 100 million is the Wii because it is the only one with a price point to attract the casual gamer. If Microsoft can get the premium Xbox down to $200, then it may be possible if it can pull off some software coups, but that will likely come towards the end of its life cycle.
Revadarth @ Nov 16th 2006 6:20PM
Nine million this holiday season, even though Sony had less than a million at launch?
Doubtful.
Optimus Prime @ Nov 16th 2006 6:21PM
History is just repeating itself.
PS2 has tons of launch problems, lots of naysayers, and competition from a fruity coloured, family-friendly console named GameCube. Had Joystiq and simlar blogs been around, GameCube would have had the same level of hype surrounding it. And, Dreamcast had a tremendous start, even selling more than consoles than 360 before the launch of PS2 (PS3 for 360).
Its hard to think longterm in the internet age when people follow the industry's happenings on a minute buy minute basis.. but, face it, PS3 is gonna win; long term, xmas '06 belongs to Wii.
Marty @ Nov 16th 2006 6:22PM
I think that with games like GTA4 coming up, the 360 has a promising future ahead... Not just at "the end of it's life cycle."
You won't see the premium 360 coming down to $200 range anytime soon, but I think the core unit could, with the premium unit dropping to $300. This will happen much sooner than with the PS3, and with a few more killer games, would mean a big punch in the gut to Sony.
Marty @ Nov 16th 2006 6:30PM
@16 - I wouldn't say that there would be as much buzz surrounding the GC as the Wii... it didn't really bring much innovation or fun to the table, and it was being marketed to a completely different audience.
Also, the Xbox was MS's first (and shaky) foray into the console world, and I think they've learned a lot about the home gaming market since then, and have been using their other assets to their advantage this time around.
In short, it's a completely different ball game this time around.
John Lucas @ Nov 16th 2006 6:30PM
Delusional.
PS3 ends life by or within 2009.
Enjoy it now, folks.
While you can.
Wii is about to DOMINATE gaming in the 7th gen.
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http://www.ez-tracks.com/mySpace-code-20306.html
Wii Are The Nation...Of Domination!
Nation...Of Domination!
Wii Are The Nation!
Nation...Of Domination!
Nation...Of Domination!
Wii Are The Nation...Of Domination!
John Lucas
killr0y @ Nov 16th 2006 6:32PM
This monkey is no "Analyst".. He works for a company that provides network services, most likely Sony's datacenter provider for the PS3's online.. Sony has more shills than a RonCo commercial.
Exo2 @ Nov 16th 2006 6:33PM
so I guess being an analyst means you pick random numbers out of your ass.
Sony announced them selfs they will make just under 6 million before march, so how could they sell 9 million before December ends?
Optimus is just a sony tool. its sad really. sonys dick is so far up his ass that he is delusional
LordMinogue @ Nov 16th 2006 6:35PM
"9 million systems sold this holiday season"
That would require an output rate of 3 million systems a month. I'd hedge my bets toward 600,000 systems a month multiplied by 1.5 for each successive month for the first 6 months. That would approximate to 2 million systems this holiday season.
zooloo @ Nov 16th 2006 6:36PM
Well....this may be the most idiotic analyst that I have ever come across. I mean seriously 204 million sold by 2012, this is bullshit!
Ignatius @ Nov 16th 2006 6:38PM
So they're saying that consumers will spend approximately $72,000,000,000? What is this guy smoking?
Optimus Prime @ Nov 16th 2006 6:44PM
"The only console that has the potential to sell over 100 million is the Wii because it is the only one with a price point to attract the casual gamer. If Microsoft can get the premium Xbox down to $200, then it may be possible if it can pull off some software coups, but that will likely come towards the end of its life cycle."
Actually, the key to selling 100+ million is to (1) stay in the market as long possible and (2) be a viable system that people want to buy. Cost is an issue, but, if its a viable system then people will buy it.
Example: GC has been the same price (or close) to PS2 for a while now. PS2 is viable whereas GC hasnt been for a long time. PS2 hit 115 million because its viable, its been on the market 6+ years, and people still want to buy it even they could buy GC for the same amount.
The challenge for Wii is to keep selling Wii when the wiimote is no longer NEW!! and 'innovative'. This is will much harder as 2nd and 3rd gen PS3/360 games come out and HDTV adoption increases.
Touch My Box @ Nov 16th 2006 6:59PM
If a $599 console (I realize it will fall in price, but when starting at $599, it will take a while to become reasonable) which almost requires a high-end HDTV manages to 121 million units (like 20 million more than the PS2), I will spank myself, upload the scene to youtube, and submit it every major gaming blog.
Me @ Nov 16th 2006 7:00PM
@ Nine million this holiday season, even though Sony had less than a million at launch?
Doubtful.
Learn to read. They are talking about combined "next gen" consoles. Anyway. Who the hell would want a PS3 in 2010-2012. It will be so obsolete and useless. Every 4-5 years a new system like MS is doing is the best.
matt121 @ Nov 16th 2006 7:05PM
@25
that is why MS made the core like it or not it is price competitive and it offers hidef gaming much cheaper than the ps3. it was a stupid gaming move but a smart business one
GalileoAce @ Nov 16th 2006 7:09PM
I doubt any one console will actually win outright this time round. They'll have a share of the market, roughly equal. Maybe one will be higher than the others but not by much. This time it really is about choice.
jojo29 @ Nov 16th 2006 7:11PM
"Who the hell would want a PS3 in 2010-2012. It will be so obsolete and useless. Every 4-5 years a new system like MS is doing is the best."
And this is where you are wrong. Xbox lasted only about 4 years. The PS2 lasted, well is lasting about 6 years. If we listened to idiots like you that jump onto the next big thing, then we would have missed out on games like, GT4, God of War, Shadow of Colosuss, Final Fantasy 12, Valkryie Profile: Silmeria, and countless other games which are some of the BEST looking games out there for that generation, games that graphically would not have been possible without the expeerience a development team needed in order to understand the 'power' of the ps2. These games would not have been possible earlier than that.
Yet according to you we should just throw our systems away just because they are "obsolete". This is the basis of console gaming, this is NOT PC gaming where a graphic card comes out EVERY FEW months (which the newest from Nvidia is out the 8800 i believe which retails for $650 for JUST the card ).
AssemblyLineHuman @ Nov 16th 2006 7:12PM
What analysts don't realize is that most consumers don't have to "switch camps." Sure, they recognize the Sony brand more than the others, but aside from the obsessed hardcore gamer (i.e. Joystiq's viewer base), there is virtually no product loyalty. The boy on the sports team who bought a PS2 to play Madden with his friends isn't going to want to pay the $100-250 premium just to get a next-gen console.
AssemblyLineHuman @ Nov 16th 2006 7:12PM
Bah. I lost my train of thought half-way through that last sentence. What I meant to say was "[. . .]premium for the Playstation name."
matt121 @ Nov 16th 2006 7:15PM
@30 i actually agree with the other guy 5 years is about right. even the xbox is woefully underpowered compared to computers and there is a difference between 5 years and a few months
maddog @ Nov 16th 2006 7:21PM
I think its simple .If microsoft can get the xbo360 core down to 199.99 by 0ct 17 for grand theft auto 4, they will have a great chance of pulling ahead of sony so far they will never catch up.
nabisco @ Nov 16th 2006 7:25PM
First off, the guy saying that the ps3 will sell at least 9 million obviosly has no clue what the numbers really are.
@Optimus Prime,
yes, I do think that one day the Wii controller will not be new anymore. But, you forget that the standard controller we use right now will be overshadowed by the Wii-mote so that when the day comes that the Wii-mote is not as exiting as it once was, we won't come back to the old way of playing games of the future.
nabisco @ Nov 16th 2006 7:40PM
An error on my part. I meant to say we won't come back to the old way of playing TO play games of the future.
nick @ Nov 16th 2006 7:40PM
I don't see the PS3 selling as well as the PS2 or PS1. It's simply too expensive. And to achieve full benefit, you really should have an HDTV, which most people still don't have.
I'm sure the PS3 will sell. I don't think that's ever been in question. But at that price point it's being offered, I say it sells less than prior generations. In fact, I'd be surprised if the PS2 didn't continue to sell well for another year, perhaps even better than the PS3 will do.
Optimus Prime @ Nov 16th 2006 7:52PM
"But, you forget that the standard controller we use right now will be overshadowed by the Wii-mote so that when the day comes that the Wii-mote is not as exiting as it once was, we won't come back to the old way of playing games of the future."
Thats a big assumption, one that Nintendo is betting will happen; but, at the end of the day, its still an assumption that can be masked by clever PR and constant pounding that its a 'revolution'.
At best, wiimote will be 'another' way of playing; its not going to supplant anything. Even Smash Bros. Brawl us going to use the VC controller.
You can believe whatever you want.
32_Footsteps @ Nov 16th 2006 8:00PM
9 million consoles in aggregate, eh?
Well, about half a mil will be the PS3, unless the launch numbers are going to be lower than what Sony said they'll have out there (and yes, I know the rumors are already saying as such).
The Wii will have 4 million out there by the end of the year if Nintendo is to be believed.
And we'll throw in a half a million to cover the last-gen systems that will somehow get bought in all this.
That would leave four million 360s - which is the benchmark the analyst says Microsoft needs to hit.
Really, when you parse this out, it basically says "If we're wrong about how many systems will sell, it's because Microsoft is completely incompetent and should get out of the video game console business."
Whether or not you think they're right, they should just come forward and say it.
Ed @ Nov 16th 2006 8:10PM
I hate these analysts reports. They're attempting to predict what will happen in SIX years!
Hank @ Nov 16th 2006 8:10PM
The PS3 will sell, because of lack of systems and its brand quality. The support for it is deep, the loyalty is high, but simply due to pricing, some will steer clear, that is until the price is right.
Nmaster @ Nov 16th 2006 8:18PM
Read:
http://www.joystiq.com/2006/11/16/analysis-sony-losing-240-on-every-ps3/
No, they lose. Hard.
Tom @ Nov 16th 2006 8:29PM
Given this trend, Sony will sell 2 Billion PS3s by 2106.
~source: A respectable analyst
Antares @ Nov 16th 2006 8:47PM
I'm nor an analyst or asdf-like, but I guess it really depends on software the sucess of a console...
I can't really see a benefit for Sony right now. They're losing profit with this very risky 'ps3' situation. And if you see in terms of developing, each day it cost more and more to produce a good game... mostly if it requires to be developed on a next-gen-graphic console. If games on ps3 don't sell well... every single company will lose money.
I guess Nintendo has made the right decission. It's around time to change the way of gaming. But as I said before it only depends of developers... if not, we've to see how the "old-esque" way of gaming turns back again. For them, there wasn't another chance more than innovating... imagine if they share the same ideologies from Sony and M$, it's sure that ther would lose the battle.
With that innovation, the gates of the sucess from Nintendo are open, but it only depends of software. They can't do more for that than 3rd parties. If it succeed as they're planning, I think that most analysts are going to have to delete their comments about sony and microsoft as the winners, becaus Wii will open a new gaming era.
nabisco @ Nov 16th 2006 8:59PM
Optimus Prime, you forget that not all the of the good things said about the Wii came just from Nintendo promoting their console. If I remember correctly, Joystiq had a metapreveiw of LoZ:TP of people from websites like IGN and 1UP playing it for 5+ hours and a lot of it was pretty good. Also, the things I've heard from people who have played it at E3 and that event Nintendo had in New York City were that the controls do work. The point I was trying to get across to you was that if it works and it's better, it will make other controllers obsolete.
Yes I did make a big assuption and it is likely that the things mentioned above won't hold up. But Brawl being the only game you can come up with that won't make the Wii controller a better way of playing didn't put up much of a fight. This is one example of why people think you're such an asshole. You have a closed-minded way of seeing how the Wii-mote can pave a new way for the future and when it's right in your face, you respond with pessimism.
koolg @ Nov 16th 2006 9:24PM
PS3 and Xbox 360 and Wii are all pretty sweet, and if we all had tons of money to burn I bet we would get all 3 of them. Yet, with $600 a pop for PS3, it will turn away quiet a handful of people from buying it. That just means more people will turn to Xbox360 and Wii. Now days as long as the games are up to par, gamers won't be picky on staying with just PS3. I took the risk of buying a Xbox instead of PS2 and I had no regrets, because the games that I really wanted to play was offer in both consoles.
Sam Eisenhandler @ Nov 16th 2006 9:38PM
This is possibly the largest load of BS in my lifetime. First of all, there won't even be 9 million PS3s around during the holiday season, second of all, if they did sell 9 million consoles, then thats a loss of $2.1 BILLION over the course of 3 months! Either this person knows nothing, or they are just using a model with no limit attached to anything.
r-deezy @ Nov 16th 2006 10:19PM
Ok people, the article said "9 million TOTAL consoles sold this holiday season." Total being the operative word... meaning between all 3 consoles. The 204.8 mil through 2012 should have given it away if you didn't get it already.
Stretchystrong @ Nov 16th 2006 10:42PM
120 million ps3 consoles sold at $250 loss = $30 billion lost.
daniel @ Nov 16th 2006 10:56PM
you guys keep mentioning sony losing money on their consoles.... they lose money for now, but later they stop losing it and gain. remember when the 360 came out? they were losing money and now they are starting to gain it.
Pete C @ Nov 16th 2006 11:37PM
The Dreamcast outsold the original Playstation in its first year, so comparing that system's demise to anything is pointless. Anyone that thinks the 360 is the next Dreamcast is kidding themselves. Sega did not have a franchise like Halo, or Gears of War for that matter. It had an overall strong library, but no killer-app. Does anyone in here honestly think that 360s will not be FLYING off shelves when Halo 3 launches? It is going to be mayhem when that game comes out! At that point, the 360 will have dropped in price as well. 360 even has Grand Theft Auto 4. So, this is nothing like the DC to PS2 comparison from a games perspective. Also, there was a visible difference to the PS2 over the DC. There is no visual advantage to the PS3 over 360, and won't be for some time.