Analyst: Sony to win big in long run
by Kyle Orland 
{ Nov 16th 2006 at 5:55PM }
Microsoft's head start will give them the market share lead through 2007, but Sony will win in the long run with almost 60 percent of the market by 2012. That's the determination of research firm Strategy Analytics, whose Connected Home Devices service predicts Sony's 121.8 million PS3s will dwarf Microsoft's 59.7 million Xbox 360s in this console generation. The company sees the Nintendo Wii as almost a non-factor with only 23.3 million units sold through 2012.Among the other predictions in the report:
- 9 million total consoles sold this holiday season
- 39.1 million consoles sold in 2007
- 204.8 million consoles sold through 2012
- 50 percent of all console sales coming from North America this generation.
The report seems to put a lot of stake in the name recognition and current dominance of the PlayStation brand, which will force other console makers to convince consumers to "switch camps." Only time will tell whether customer loyalty can overcome high prices, hardware shortages and heavy marketing from Sony's competitors.
Read - Report summary
Read - Press release announcing results
[Via GameDaily]
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Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
Stretchystrong @ Nov 16th 2006 10:42PM
120 million ps3 consoles sold at $250 loss = $30 billion lost.
daniel @ Nov 16th 2006 10:56PM
you guys keep mentioning sony losing money on their consoles.... they lose money for now, but later they stop losing it and gain. remember when the 360 came out? they were losing money and now they are starting to gain it.
Pete C @ Nov 16th 2006 11:37PM
The Dreamcast outsold the original Playstation in its first year, so comparing that system's demise to anything is pointless. Anyone that thinks the 360 is the next Dreamcast is kidding themselves. Sega did not have a franchise like Halo, or Gears of War for that matter. It had an overall strong library, but no killer-app. Does anyone in here honestly think that 360s will not be FLYING off shelves when Halo 3 launches? It is going to be mayhem when that game comes out! At that point, the 360 will have dropped in price as well. 360 even has Grand Theft Auto 4. So, this is nothing like the DC to PS2 comparison from a games perspective. Also, there was a visible difference to the PS2 over the DC. There is no visual advantage to the PS3 over 360, and won't be for some time.
n3rrd @ Nov 17th 2006 12:03AM
It's well and good to say that Sony will profit in the long run from the PS3, but right now, Sony is having trouble staying profitable even before the Playstation has dropped. They are going through rougher times than usual and who knows how many systems they can afford to sell at any loss.
I personally can't see Sony hitting their six million mark by March. That announcement was made before they cut their initial shipment to a quarter of it's original quantity. Not only couldn't they get production to a point they had expected initially, they now have to produce even faster in the next few months to get back to that six million.
dsub @ Nov 17th 2006 12:29AM
If this guy is predicting that 9 million consoles will be sold, and only 500,000 of them are PS3's, 2-3 Million are Wii's...then that means MS wins big this holiday season.
9 Million minus 500,000 minus 2 or 3 Million = 5.5 or 6.5 Million 360's sold?
Hmmm. Microsoft is estimating that they will sell around 3 million this holiday season, so this guy must think MS will double it's sales forecasts.
If you just look at the numbers this guy is forecasting it doesn't add up. I'm not hating on Sony, Nintendo, or MS for that matter...but seriously. Sony would have to outsell MS by nearly a 2:1 ratio in 2007 to catch up and be able to take the lead in 2008. How is that possible when Sony only estimates it will ship 6 million PS3's by the end of 2007?
It is a wise estimate that by the end of 2007 with the impending price cut and Halo 3 launch that MS will have shipped in excess of nearly 20,000,000 360's. Which means that sony will have to outsell MS by a 3.33:1 ratio in 2008 to catch up. Say what you will, but for this guys estimate to prove true, 360 sales would literally have to slow to a screaching halt in the end of 2007/early 2008 for this to happen. Do I see that coming with Halo 3, GTA4, RE5, Mass Effect, Ninja Gaiden 2 and more likely being released around that time frame? Hell fucking no.
Is this guy forgetting Sony's very slow production of the PS3? They can't make PS3's fast enough to sell at the quantities needed to prove this guys estimates right and take over in 2008. This guy is on crack.
Pete C @ Nov 17th 2006 12:35AM
Well put dsub.
Revo @ Nov 17th 2006 1:47AM
"27. Who the hell would want a PS3 in 2010-2012. It will be so obsolete and useless."
Forgive me if my sarcasm detector should have gone off, but this is precisely the kind of thinking I don't understand. It's kinda like saying the PS2 is useless now that the PS3 is coming out. This is the point where I might actually buy a PS2, now that it's cheap and has a full library of games.
IP_inv @ Nov 17th 2006 3:25AM
121.8 million
*MU = Million Units
**PPU = Profit Per Unit
Year / MU* sold (acumulative) / MU* Sold Year / Price Drop / PPU** /
2006 1/ 001 / 1 / 580 / -150 / 150,000,000 Deficit
2007 2/ 014 / 13 / 510 / -75 / 975,000,000 Deficit
2008 3/ 030 / 16 / 440 / -38 / 608,000,000 Deficit
2009 4/ 047 / 17 / 370 / 0 / 0.Profit
2010 5/ 067 / 20 / 300 / +30 / 600.000.000 Profit
2011 6/ 092 / 25 / 230 / +23 / 575,000,000 Profit
2012 7/ 121 / 29 / 150 / +15 / 435,000,000 Profit
Acording to this data, for sony is almost impossible to reach this numbers as their target,
because loosing 975 Million Dollars in Playstation 3 manufacture would mean loosing 1.5 times
the yearly average Sony Corp. Profit.
and mantaining a 3 year deficit would mean 1,733,000,000 deficit, wich mean about 43% of sony reserves
(4 Billio dollar), making a comparison to Microsoft would mean microsoft to invest over 3 years 21,500,000,000
in a single product.
Balance 1,610,000,000 profit
1,733,000,000 Deficit
Totals 123,000,000 Deficit
i think sony will make use of controlled manufacture shortage, jut manufacturing about 5-7 million units a year
until decreasing manufacture costs, then PS3 rate would be increased.
DoomPlague @ Nov 17th 2006 4:53AM
Here we go again. Like I said about the earlier "analyst report" (which said the 360 would win in the end) we're talking about companies that try to predict the future based solely on things like trends, marketing strength, and to be blunt, looking at the past. We shouldn't care what these bums say because they aren't used to dealing with a market like this.
The past repeating its self? I don't know if you all realize this but the game industry is still relatively young (yes, I know how old it is) and each generation of game systems has been different in SOME way. The 360 should be compared to the Xbox not the Dreamcast because let's face it, Sega isn't Microsoft. If anything it's more fair to compare the 360 to the PS2 since the PS3 and Wii are coming out a year later and within days of each of other...right? (just trying to show you how silly these comparisons are)