Newsweek: Blu-ray the movie winner
On his Newsweek blog, N'gai Croal explores the format war between HD-DVD and Blu-ray movies in relation to gamers. While the Xbox 360 can play HD-DVD with its add-on drive, Croal says that's a non-starter because those sorts of console add-ons rarely sell to more than 10 percent of the base. Because of more studio -- and electronic company -- support for Blu-ray, and the PS3 pushing that format into homes, Croal names Blu-ray as the winner.
We go with his reasoning to a point, but we're not ready to call the race for Blu-ray. Instead, we're voting for none of the above; the market may adopt HD downloads before it embraces a new disc format.
HD downloads will gobble up bandwidth, but the Xbox 360 will soon sell HD movies and TV shows. Consumers without 360s will need a way to play HD shows on a TV; the real format war may be between the Xbox 360 download service and yet-to-be-announced stand-alone boxes that only download HD movies.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Rabiddog @ Nov 16th 2006 8:38AM
I name Beta as the clear winner.
Dave @ Nov 16th 2006 8:39AM
Yeah!
http://playb3yond.com/
http://foxbd.com/
http://www.disneybluray.com/
Josh @ Nov 16th 2006 8:40AM
Now, I'm as big a fan of the 360 as the next guy. But if MS wants us to download HD movies with a 20 gig hard drive (forget paying god knows what else for the larger one for a moment), then they are going to have to push this thing a lot harder. People don't want to have to get rid of the movies they own. Which is exactly why this hasn't caught on yet. If there was a way to offload the movies onto a disc of some type, or transfer them to larger devices, that's one thing... but the last thing Joe Blow movie watcher wants to have to do is redownload The Wiggles Movie while their kid screams in the living room because someone deleted it to make room for The Departed last night.
Convenience is king. If it can be inconvenient, it will not take off, unless there is no other way to get what you want. Unfortunately, discs are more convenient (in the majority of cases) than downloads.
As far as which disc format takes off.. I'm willing to bet price has a large part to play. Blu-Ray would be the hands down winner if Sony had enough PS3's to go around at launch.. but every day someone doesn't get their hands on a $600 PS3 is another day that $400 HD-DVD player looks pretty nice too.
Ashley Allen @ Nov 16th 2006 8:54AM
Digital downloads for the win!
...and HD-DVD to keep me going in the meantime.
The big problem with everything Movie-wise now is that Sony are in both sides of the deal being a studio and a electronic company/playstation operator. No format or Download service is going to have sony films unless it's sony backed. Xbox Video Marketplace, iTunes/iTV and any others.
@ Nov 16th 2006 8:57AM
I like have a physical copy of my videos please; not have them 'licenced' from MS. You, in case i just want to play in on another player or lend it out to a friend.. simple stuff like that, that downloads dont offer.
Paul @ Nov 16th 2006 9:02AM
until they start making tetrabite standalone media drives there will be no winner - another 5 years of a media war that will just have one side edging out the other then BAM its over with digital distribution the winner.
Jonathan @ Nov 16th 2006 9:03AM
Ya Blu-Ray will be the winner, just like Mini-Disc beat DAT and DCC.
Personally, I don't think the market is truly ready for HD movie discs, because most people are happy with watching regular DVDs.
Just like back in the day, people were happy recording their CDs to audio tapes or using CD Walkmans. By the time they were ready to record digitally, Mini-Discs, DAT and DCC were obsolete because CDRs and then MP3s took over.
nick @ Nov 16th 2006 9:10AM
Discs are more convenient that digital downloads? When is the last time you saw someone walking around with a portable CD-based music player? I think the days of disc based anything are numbered.
And people don't want to get rid of the movies they own? There are some movies I like owning, but for the most part, I never watch most of the DVDs I have over again. Renting a movie from Netflix and returning it when I'm done is the best fit for me. Downloading movies is almost the same thing, except instead of waiting for the mail to arrive (1-3 days), I'm just waiting for the item to download (minutes to hours)
djDaemon @ Nov 16th 2006 9:11AM
Yeah, 'cause it sure sounds like he knows what he's talking about.
Sam @ Nov 16th 2006 9:12AM
I'm surprised that he'd say add-ons like this fail. I've never heard of a video-format exclusive add-on ever for any system. One thing that is largely underestimated in the 'Sony will have 400,00 people with blu-ray' argument is that most gamers don't have HD tvs, most gamers are cheap and will buy a DVD for almost half the price of a dvd.
HD-DVD will win because it's cheaper and the quality is as far as I could see (I may have read some impressions on Joystiq that said Bourne Supremecy looked better on HDDVD) the same as a blu-ray: really nice. Sony can't catch a break.
If the downloadable content that Microsoft is offering up is anything like most trailers and previews, I'll pass. Way too compressed for me. 720p, but ugly.
One last note: my 360 HD-DVD add on is EXCELLENT.
jayntampa @ Nov 16th 2006 9:15AM
Waiting minutes to download a movie? I downloaded a 900mb demo off of the Xbox Marketplace last night and it took almost 2 hours. Lets say they miraculously release a HD movie at 6gb ... I'll have to wait 13 or 14 hours to download it, slowing the rest of my connections (computer, not able to play online, etc) while waiting -- and you won't get any of the bonus interactive content of an HD-DVD or Blu-ray. Plus, you're then forced to watch it in a certain amount of time.
Sorry, digital distribution for the mainstream is a decade away.
@ Nov 16th 2006 9:19AM
"Discs are more convenient that digital downloads? When is the last time you saw someone walking around with a portable CD-based music player? I think the days of disc based anything are numbered."
Big differences dude.
Music downloads are $1 per song or cheaper. So, people can live with the DRM issues:
- not being able to resell
- lower quality to adress issues of bandwidth
- limited capacity of player
- not being able to lend out your media (for keeps) or even play it on a nother player (streaming DRMed 1080p content aint here yet)
- issues of redownloading if your device is screwed or stolen, etc
So, with movies there are other issues with downloads:
- cost.. HD movies arent going to be $1 each.. they will be more inline with BD movies with less features
- lack of extras or features (deleted scenes, etc)
- lack of audio options; languages and the newer lossless formats
- 720p to save bandwidth vs. 1080p
One way around this is to allow burning after you've downloaded.. but, that requires an optical based medium.. like BD. So, even if the studios allowed burning of their near-HD-masters opies, youre back at the beginning.
n2 @ Nov 16th 2006 9:19AM
Digital distribution is a decade away?
Should probably tell that to Apple, so they stop wasting their time with music, movies, and television downloads.
Sana @ Nov 16th 2006 9:20AM
Living down in Australia, most people don't even have a HD tele, let alone know what Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are. Although we do tend to follow America's trends, there are currently no plans to release the 360 HD-DVD drive over here and we won't see the PS3 until Europe gets it...maybe even later.
I speak to idiots every day who have purchased flat panel displays, saying they have HD displays (or even funnier 1080p displays) when infact they have a monitor that accepts component and HDMI, but has a native res of MAYBE 720p. Include the shitty electronics for rendering the image to the pixels and the majority of Aussies will see ZERO difference in resolution quality between a good DVD player (like the 360's upscaling) and real HD images.
Sure, some people have displays that will display 720P, 1080i and maybe even 1080p (though I'm yet to see a displays advertised anywhere that can actually do 1080p properly. Maybe I'm not looking hard enough). But screen sizes are generally under 50" and certainly under 60" for all but the most wealthy.
IF we get the 360 HD service in Australia, it will get really interesting. Most people I know with decent HD or 480p equipment (projectors and such) already have 360s and have gotten so used to seeing games in PC style quality, playing a PS2 or XBOX can be downright painful. On a side note I hope the Wii on component looks nice enough ;)
With 20mbit ADSL becoming more and more available, I really think this will take off. Sure you don't have a backup "for all time". MS has a record if your purchases so you can download them again when you watch to watch them. Didn't somebody say that 480P stuff will start playing almost instantly?
And I'd certainly prefer to pay MS $5-6 to watch a 480P movie for a day, than go down to the video store and spent the same.
Lastly, with the PS3 taking normal hard drives, MS will HAVE to come up with a decent solution if they want to compete. Sure Media Center Extender is pretty sweet on Vista, but I'd prefer to be able to plug in a card reader (or my PSP lol) and just watch MP4 stuff. I've got an idea too so the whole sharing experience could be beautiful :)
Sorry for the rant ;)
Evan @ Nov 16th 2006 9:23AM
How many PS3s can Sony manufacture and sell in the next 12 months? 10 million? 15 million? That's a drop in the bucket compared to the number of DVD players out there. I think the first format to release a stand alone player for $250 will win.
Zac @ Nov 16th 2006 9:23AM
I'm pretty tired of speculation.. any victor in this war is far far away.
The reason DVD's and CD's made an easy transition into households was because the formats they replaced were analogue. Digital to prettier digital is a jump that most consumers aren't ready for.
geekzapoppin @ Nov 16th 2006 9:28AM
There was a VCD add-on for the CD-i and the PSX could also play them. You could also consider the remote/dongle for the Xbox an add-on. The fact is, most people don't use their gaming machines for anything other than gaming.
Me, I have a chipped Xbox, so I use it for watching videos but I'm in the minority.
It's all going to come down to studio support and affordability to the common consumer. The prices on DVD players came down fast enough that it sold like hotcakes. Also it was a huge leap forward from VHS and even LD. Neither hi-def format offers a substantial technological or quality advantage over standard DVD. Not to the everyman, at least. I can tell the difference between a hi-def image and a standard-def image, but my wife can't tell much of a difference. Add that to the fact that HDTVs still have a relatively low adoption rate and you come to the logical assumption that neither format will succeed for some time, at least not in a major way. Say hello to the LD of the 21st Century!
KaneRobot @ Nov 16th 2006 9:41AM
He's basing the format winner on the game consoles' offerings? Why bother? Sure, if HD-DVD and Blu-Ray were ONLY available on the PS3 and 360, then you'd have to go with the PS3 probably. That's obviously not the case.
This is a pretty insignificant topic to write an article on. And while add-ons generally don't sell to a large percentage of the install base, the 360's add-on has nothing to do with games themselves so it is aiming at a different audience. Some people will buy the 360 + add-on just to have a competitively priced HD-DVD player that also plays games (instead of the other way around). Now if they'd just bring out an HDMI cable...
Right now HD-DVD is ahead, and thanks to the PS3 shortages that probably won't change any time soon. HD-DVD's lead is HARDLY insurmountable though and things could easily change later next year if Sony gets their act together.
Oh, and NEVER trust a guy who uses an apostraphe in his first name.
djDaemon @ Nov 16th 2006 9:47AM
" How many PS3s can Sony manufacture and sell in the next 12 months? 10 million? 15 million?"
That's hilarious. I think you're off by a factor of 10.
Todd @ Nov 16th 2006 9:48AM
Hmm, so instead of giving consumers the choice Sony wants to force Blu-ray upon the masses. I can see how this can be a potential boon for Sony, since the 360 doesn't come with HD DVD technology already included, to infiltrate homes. However there's really no urgency to go out and replace DVD's with either new format.
Since Sony doesn't allow for the playing of both formats, I'll save up my money for a REAL HD player which can safely play all three.
SecondChance @ Nov 16th 2006 9:58AM
When even Sony execs are calling dr digital downloads (Harrison), which in itslef was yet another odd Sony Logic statement, the physical formats are doomed. Especially with all of this DRM backlash going on right now. It's only going to get worse as MS and Apple ramp up downloading. Don't expect DVD to go down without a fight however, but in the end there's no way to stop progress. Downloads for the win. Blu-Ray discs will make a nice little cherry on top of the MiniDick/Beta Max pile of failure though.
Akoustik @ Nov 16th 2006 10:05AM
its nice to say that HD Downloads will be the winner, but that's just not realistic. Poeple still imbrace their collections and physicall owning a movie. The age of digital downloads is upon us... correct.. but that doesn't mean it will be bigger than disks that you can put into your player and let your friends borrow.. so on..
I say Blu-Ray will parralize HD-DVD in 2007
USP45 @ Nov 16th 2006 10:11AM
Once production catches up with demand for the PS3, HD-DVD will be as good as dead. Blu-ray will be in a lot of homes thanks to the PS3 and people will start to rent and buy blu-ray movies, which aren't that much more expensive than dvds. When blu-ray disc production hits it's stride prices will go way down, blu-ray stand alone players will drop in price and hd-dvd will be long gone.
HD downloads are something ms just threw in there to try and affect the launch of the PS3. HD downloads with a 20gb harddrive are a ridiculous idea when movies studios are already using 50gb blu-ray discs.
Like it or not blu-ray will be the norm the PS3 is going to make sure of that. Nothing can save hd-dvd, ms has another flop in their hands.
Phranctoast @ Nov 16th 2006 10:13AM
People need to stop comparing hd downloads or any video downloads for that matter, to music downloads. THEY ARE NOT THE SAME.
Maybe its just me, but I cant see myself watching a movie on a cell phone or even any portable player. Im suprised umd did so well to begin with. I just feel the audience for this is very small.
Anyway. music you could listen to without being distracted, like you would if you were watching a movie.
HD downloads will be pretty good. The only problem I forsee is ownership. You will own your stuff as long as there is an online network that supports it. What if live disapears in 5-10 years? Peopole like to own a physical copy of their movies.
ackmondual @ Nov 16th 2006 10:14AM
I saw Game On! Unauthorized History of Gaming on CNBC yesterday. It mentioned how PS1 beat out SNES and n64 b/c CD-ROMs were much cheaper and faster to make. Will this happen again, but to Sony and their BR? Will this irony return to bite them in the ass?
Aaren Jensen @ Nov 16th 2006 10:24AM
As usual most peoples opinions seems very cut and paste. I would just like to remind everyone it's about choice!
1) I can see Digital distribution through the a video marketplace is fine for some people, but not all. I suspect the shorter content that's quicker to download (ie TV Shows) will ultimately be the more popular product sold this way.
2) I can see a $200 HD-DVD add-on drive is fine for some people, let's say people just entering into HD who want to try a few movies without forking out more money for a stand alone player.without HDTV sets who don't have the cash to buy.
3) I can also see the All-In-One solution of the PS3 will also hold it's own for those who can afford it (remember it's half the price of other BluRay players on the market).
My only fear is that HD Movies might be a little too early for mass consumption, I can watch a well produced DVD on my HDTV set and not find anything to complain about. If the director wants to adds gobs of extra content he add's another DVD to the package.
Steve @ Nov 16th 2006 10:28AM
The days of downloading movies as a mainstream way of purchasing movies is a long way off. The process is much easier with audio and we're still not there yet. Problems abound with piracy, and while I'm the last to care if some entertainer fails to get any money, I know the industry isn't just going to sit back and allow it to happen. The piracy controls make the use of legal MP3 downloads a real pain in the ass and limit their usefulness. I'm also skeptical that a song I play today will be allowed to play in a music player that I'll purchase in 2035! Buy a CD today and you'll know it will still work in the future.
I'm also not a fan of purchasing compressed media that's suitable for internet transfer. Apple wants me to pay $1 for an MP3? Give me a break! I wanted a single song from an album a few months ago and I managed to find a used copy of the album on Amazon for $1 (it was cheap because it didn't have the pathetic album packaging), so for $1 I could have Apple's highly compressed audio file with numerous playback restrictions or I could get the entire album in full 16bit 44.1khz stereo audio that I could convert to as many high-bitrate MP3s as I want. Duh - which one would I choose?
Those problems are compounded with video. If I buy a movie I want to play it on any device that I own or may own in the future. I don't want highly compressed garbage either so don't try to sell some video equivalent of 128kbs MP3 an audio file to me. In the HD era I better get my movie as some massive 30-50GB file, and quite frankly computing power just isn't there yet. The internet can't handle distributing millions of transactions of that type every day, and home users just don't have the harddrive capacity to hold a big library of those films. In a few years it may be pratical, but not today.
And even if transaction and storeage problems were resolved it wouldn't solve the problems with getting the image onto my HDTV. I don't want to crowd around my PC to watch a movie nor do I want some cable running from my PC to my TV. It reminds me of the problems with PC gaming: the hardware is ready but the experience is lousy.
maximus @ Nov 16th 2006 10:41AM
Ahh more pro-MS crap from Joystiq, not long ago you were praising the 'choice' MS gave us with the HD-DVD add on and now you're saying downloads are the way forward. Personally i couldn't care less which one comes out on top as i've already got a 360 and will be buying a PS3 in march. Though i'm not buying the HD-DVD add on. Blu Ray through HDMI thanks.
I've no doubt that Blu Ray will be the dominant format, having movies on a physical disc will be the preferred option for the mass market for a long long time to come. Blu Ray has the major movie studios on board and after this weekend the number of Blu Ray players in homes, by virtue of the PS3, will double the number of HD-DVD players out there. Content is king and content will follow the format with the most potential customers.
DVD will continue to be number 1 for a long time, Blu Ray will slowly grow and HD-DVD is already dead.
Walshicus @ Nov 16th 2006 10:42AM
See, claiming Blu-Ray will win because it has more studios is one way to look at it, but when you see that HD-DVD has more of the studios who actually release films worth watching... well it doesn't take a genius to see that content will drive this format war.
Oh, and Battlestar Galactica is coming to HD-DVD so it's automatically won.
Epic @ Nov 16th 2006 10:42AM
Digital distribution is pie in the sky for HD feature-length movie collections. A BD-ROM has more capacity than many hard drives. There is no viable storage option for an entire home library of HD movies. Imagine the expense of purchasing disk drives or flash media to accommodate such a collection. Obviously, Blu-ray is the superior option.
Another digital alternative (but equally preposterous) is purchasing licenses for content that is stored remotely and streaming it on demand. Not only does this strip the consumer of true ownership, but homes don't have the infrastructure for that kind of bandwidth waste -- neither does the internet, for that matter.
Blu-ray has the odds in its favor for the next-gen format war, but yesterday we observed in a poll that Joystiq readers thought HD-DVD was more likely to succeed. Since this conclusion is at odds with the facts, we can only conclude that it was driven by a general disdain for all things Sony.
Patrick @ Nov 16th 2006 10:44AM
Hmmmm i was under the impression that the Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-on was selling very well....all the gamestops, targets, bestbuys, circuit cities, frys, and compusa's in my city are sold out of them, i know i love mine!
when i got my ps2 on launch day long ago, i didn't go nuts and go out and buy 30 dvds to watch on it.
also, Sony is including a really bad transfer with Talladega Nights according to highdefdigest.com.
just a thought.....
Ruan Caiman @ Nov 16th 2006 10:45AM
None of the above. Why wait for an HD movie download when you can drive to the store and back and have it in less time?
Movies on portable hard drives - either you swap them out at retail kiosks or you swap 'em Netflix-style. This is the way of the future. Somebody'll make a special device with hard-drive and figure out a way to DRM it to death. I know because Mark Cuban said so, months ago.
devi8i @ Nov 16th 2006 11:05AM
Since when was betamax a failure???? Maybe from a consumer standpoint, but obviously you never worked in television. Every television across the world has and uses betamax and have been since teh early 80's. Sell of betamax tapes alone have contributed more money to Sony's coffers then most other products.
On the topic of digital downloads I am sure that is in our future eventually. HD movies; however, over current broadband is not a money maker.
maximus @ Nov 16th 2006 11:06AM
It's a simple equasion.
Largest Potential Customer Base = more content
More content = winner
Toshiba have quoted HD-DVD sales around 80,000 and Blu Ray equalled that over 2 days with the limited launch of the PS3 in Japan. Add to that 250,000 or 400,000 depending how many Sony actually let loose in the US and Blu Ray already has a massive lead which will increase every week. Then in March another massive addition when the PS3 goes on sale in Europe. Yes a certain percentage of 360 owners will but the add on but that pales into insignificance compared to PS3 sales over the coming months.
devi8i @ Nov 16th 2006 11:08AM
wow I guess I should have said "television station" sorry
hey alex @ Nov 16th 2006 11:10AM
I'm not sure why the assumption is most people have an HDTV. I personally don't, nor am I picking one up anytime soon. So Blu-Ray, HD-DVD, neither currently matter to me. Digital downloading, I'm on board. And hey, they offer SD content. I'm done with buying movies. I really don't need to own the disc. I'm fine with renting and returning the movie.
Andrew F @ Nov 16th 2006 11:13AM
According to thedvdwars.com, HD-DVD is whupping Blu-Ray in almost every category. It may be that Blu-Ray's dominance will take some time, but if it takes too long, downloads will become a threat.
devi8i @ Nov 16th 2006 11:17AM
BTW--- We already have a successful digital download movie service..its called Pay-Per View.... No waiting to download it, cheaper then blockbuster and you can tivo it and watch it as many times as you want. And if its onyour tivo you can transfer it to your pc and convert it to whatever format you want
matt @ Nov 16th 2006 11:17AM
Yes, because a video game system always centers itself around the rest of a persons multi media package. Are we not forgetting the fact that even if every 360 and ps3 sell out for the next couple years, that still leave a huge gap left over for all of those who want nothing to do with video games at all, those who wish to watch a movie or tv show and thats that. No game or entertainment system is going to decide a format war, which is about dead anyway with higher bandwiths being offered to more and more areas (spots in europe already testing out 100gbs (yes, i said 100GBS, that would transfer 2 blue ray disk in under a minute!) bandwith technology. Why drive out somewhere or rent something or go browse through a store when i can download the latest movies, games, music or whatever have you for cheaper on line? yes, you dont have the pretty little packaging or an immediate hard copy, but its the same damn thing. Face it, the days of cd's tapes, dvds, media cards etc etc are soon to be at an end. I dont think it will happen within this console wars end, to much tech to push on the tech unfriendly masses...have to dumb things down a bit, but by next console war, or half decade, i really dont see any formats at all...i see watered down media center pc's/game systems/multi media managers in people homes for probably around the price of a new game system or a bullshit pc, and people will be downloading that evenings shows and music that very morning or perhaps on thier way to work over thier cell or what have you...media wars? the only loosers that will truely be are those who rush out to buy one of these players and sit on it for the next couple years only to slowly watch it die anyways.
MIkesOnline @ Nov 16th 2006 11:39AM
Let's not forget that not everyone who buys a PS3 will have hdtv. Who knows how many of the PS3 buyers will even care to spend the extra money for blu-ray movies over dvd. The PS3 having blu-ray doesn't guarantee it will win any more than the PSP having umd did. One thing I do know, is that everyone who buys the hd dvd add on for the xbox 360 will definitely use and support the format or else they would not be buying it. Personally what I think will happen is that the studios except for Sony will begin supporting both formats. Maybe not right away but eventually. Also, Sony doesn't format their movies with the latest codecs. They use MPEG2 instead of VC1 because VC1 codecs were developed mainly by Microsoft. VC1 is far superior to MPEG2. So the Sony blu-ray movies don't look as good as the movies on hd-dvd. For those buying something to watch hd movies on, picture quality is the number one criteria. Also have you seen this? 720p PS3 games downscale to 480p on older HD sets:
http://www.joystiq.com/2006/11/15/720p-ps3-games-downscale-on-older-hd-sets/
I wonder if the PS3 will downscale blu-ray movies if your tv does do the correct resolution? Anyway, just my 2 cents worth.
vitaminbmeister @ Nov 16th 2006 11:48AM
Brewster's Millions, now that is what I'm talking about. R.I.P. Richard.
Jarrett @ Nov 16th 2006 11:57AM
Anyone know a link or a site where they list what is going to be available for download on x-box matketplace ???
Curiosity is going to get the best of me on this format so I want to test it out and see it's viability.
maximus @ Nov 16th 2006 12:04PM
"Sony doesn't format their movies with the latest codecs. They use MPEG2 instead of VC1 because VC1 codecs were developed mainly by Microsoft. VC1 is far superior to MPEG2."
They've changes their stance on that and will be using VC1. Those stats at dvdwars are pointless right now considering nearly all of the Blu Ray players have been constantly delayed, be interesting to see what happens to those figures over the next few months.
crills @ Nov 16th 2006 12:09PM
@ 40 its 100gigabits not gigabytes.
-WorldSpawn- @ Nov 16th 2006 12:47PM
What I want to know is average D/L times for an HD movie. The HD trailers, demos etc can take some time to download so just imagine an entire HD movie! I would rather walk to the video store next door than tie up my console for hours of downloading.
Mark W @ Nov 16th 2006 12:52PM
HD Downloads. On a console that doesn't even come with a hard drive. Nice try.
Jeff @ Nov 16th 2006 12:57PM
"Digital distribution is a decade away?
Should probably tell that to Apple, so they stop wasting their time with music, movies, and television downloads."
Compare Apple's offering with Netflix's. Enough said.
Netflix rents more titles in a *day* than Apple has sold videos so far in the entire history of the iTunes movie store. There's only so many times people are going to watch the same episode of Lost.
I've said it before - the main impediment to downloading is copyright issues. Yes, that means downloading as a viable distribution medium is probably *more* than a decade away. I mean unless you're satisfied watching the same 100 movies over and over, but Netflix has shown us that it takes a lot more than that to build a successful movie distribution business. Reed Hastings will be the first to tell you that one of the pillars his company is based on is selection - they didn't beat Blockbuster just because they had no late fees, they beat Blockbuster because they had a library about 100 times larger.
And now they're renting BD and HD-DVD discs. Sorry, but optical discs are going to be around for quite a while, if for no other reason than that's what the current distribution contracts support (and *all* of these films will need their contracts renegotiated for download, individually), and that's what our current distribution system supports. That's not even getting into the technical constraints against downloading.
SuicideNinja @ Nov 16th 2006 1:03PM
I was talking to my mother and sister in-law yesterday, and my wife commented that I said she should just buy her "Little Mermaid" on Blu-ray since I'll get a PS3 in the next couple of months. (When I originally said this, I was joking.)
The mom and sis looked at me funny and said, "What the hell is Blu-ray?"
I asked if they knew what an HD-DVD was.
"Well yeah. It's a High Def DVD, right?"
Do I need to say more?
Okay, okay. Yes, I explained the difference. I asked which they would get based on name alone. Mom said, "HD-DVD because I know what it is." The sister said, "The Blue thingy".
Hmmm...this format war is a waste of time in my opinion.
jc @ Nov 16th 2006 1:04PM
Sam, the last "video-format exclusive add-on" I can think of would be the DVD playback kit for the original Xbox.
In contrast to the article, I think HD-DVD has a better chance against Blu-Ray then the author of this story: PS3 is not going to have the installed base that Sony enjoyed with the PS2, HD-DVD isn't limited to playback through the X360 add-on (there are better HD-DVD players on the market) and the porn industry isn't quite the deal-breaker it was during the VHS-Beta era (who really wants to see every wart, pimple and sign of infection with HD porn actors).
I suspect we won't reach a critical mass with HD-disc adoption until there are dual format players anyways.
Personally, I agree with > (#5)... when I buy a movie, I want a hard copy with full artwork and the ability to watch it even if my hard-drives crash.
TB @ Nov 16th 2006 1:12PM
blu-ray uses Mpeg2. A 10 year old technology. Why do the disks cost so much more than HD-DVD. HD-DVD disks have the regular and HD formats of the movies. Its much smarter to buy HD-DVD and watch them in your dvd player and when you upgrade to a HDTV, flip the same disk over and watch it in HD.