PS3 may miss production goals ... again
Sony's press is getting worse and worse after analysts took note of the PS3 launch. As predicted, Sony missed the 400,000 goal for US launch; many analysts predicted they only reached half that amount. To add insult to injury, some analysts expect Sony to only make roughly 10% of the original 4 million promised by year's end. Ouch!
In a report compiled by Bloomberg, Sony failed to ship even enough units to cover promised pre-orders to half of 150 stores surveyed. SooAnn Roberts, analyst with Kaufman Bros. (the company that surveyed the stores), is convinced that Sony may fail to ship more than 200,000 by year's end. Other analysts think Sony made 200,000 for launch and will struggle to match that number over the next month. Either way, Sony is in some serious trouble.
Even with all the problems they've had over the past year, the PS3 production problems will hit home with the consumer who rarely checks up on the news lines. While a myriad of issues plague the PS3's production, the biggest killer is the decision to use Blu-ray. Will the 50GB disc capacity be enough to make up for the nearly one year delay and significantly diminished production capacity, not to mention the price?
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
AirIntake @ Nov 21st 2006 12:50PM
And I thought MS shit the bed on 360 launch production! HA!
.ed @ Nov 21st 2006 12:51PM
i just keep thinking of how many ps2's went defective over the years within it's release and later... i can't bring myself to trust a new product that, while it looks and performs nice, very well may have had even more sacrifices made under the hood to get them out the door so fast... i'll think about buying one after the first revision. maybe then there will be reasons to own it, and trust sony.
well... maybe not trust.
LunarDuality @ Nov 21st 2006 12:51PM
What is extra confusing for me is why a system that was delayed so long still has such manufacturing woes...
If they wanted this machine to do all of things that it does, why didn't they plan accordingly to get the product to market?
Of course it's cutting-edge tech and all of that but at some point you have to stop trying to do *everything* half-way and just do *something* well.
Spilt_Milk @ Nov 21st 2006 12:54PM
Ding dong, the witch is dead!
:D
bird @ Nov 21st 2006 12:55PM
well so far i'm only using my ps3 for blu ray. So yeah the wait for blu ray was good for me. I'm sure some good games will come out eventually. Speaking of blu ray, anyone know of a good one that looks good in 1080p, talladega nights just looks like a nice dvd. In the previews, spiderman looked amazing, but it's not out yet.
mietha CAG @ Nov 21st 2006 12:57PM
Funny, I think a HD-DVD OPTIONAL drive add-on, that doesn't have to be purchased the same time as the console, and CAN be used for gaming later if the need arises, works a whole lot better than trying to shove the inferior Blu Ray down peoples throats up front. Guess that's what happens when you're trying to sell a movie player as a gaming system...
Mobat @ Nov 21st 2006 12:57PM
This is just a sad state of affairs. There only hurting there loyal consumers.
How long will you Sony Fanboy hold out until you need next gen in your home?
Gears of War and Twilight Princess are mighty appealing are they not?
Flit @ Nov 21st 2006 12:58PM
*sigh*, i'm starting to feel bad for sony, and i'm not sure why. It's not like they haven't been around for decades and should be smarter than this. Do they just have a handful of darts and hoping that at least one of them hits the board?
They need to get their act together, or else ps3 will go the way of the dreamcast. I want sony to succeed, but come on guys.
Sony is starting to look like Delta airlines, can't do anything right.
mywhitenoise @ Nov 21st 2006 12:58PM
Does anyone know when the first revision will come out? Once Sony has a good idea of what they're doing with production. I have a 60 GB PS3, but haven't opened it because
1. I could sell it, and buy another later.
2. I don't want to have a buggy system.
3. There wont be any good games for awhile.
When MGS4 comes out, then i'll be sold.
John @ Nov 21st 2006 1:00PM
i feel sorry for sony also! i wanna ps3 but not at the price theyr charging, itd be ok if everyone was paying the same but here in the uk were getting totally ripped off
sony makes good products and itd be a shame if they turned out like sega
http://www.petitiononline.com/ps3/petition.html
Tom @ Nov 21st 2006 1:02PM
The negative hype surrounding the inadequate supplies of ps3s is ridiculous. I have no allegiences to any of the systems, but I'd consider myself more of a sony and nintendo fan over microsoft. So what if they didn't meet their target goal of ps3 releases. Its unfortunate, but certain people are exploiting it as the greatest business travesty/blunder ever. Its not as if this holiday season is going to make or break the ps3, the system has enough power to carry it through for the next 5-7 years; and it has the franchises that are going to sell. Yes, you can argue that these type of shortcomings may thwart the perceptions of the ps3 amongst the lay public, but all in all, this just seems like the ps2 story repeated, with its lack of availability at launch, but the eventual superiority to everything else. I sincerely doubt microsoft, even with its increased competitiveness, will be able to halt the ps3's success, the ps3 has too many positive things going for it.
George @ Nov 21st 2006 1:03PM
People keep mentioning MGS4 for ps3, is that all people like about the ps3 is metal gear? I never understood as i thought it was overated and just a good, almost great game. Its not a killer app in my opinion. And i am surprised i havent heard this online yet but the latest issue of EGM states that konami is pressuring metal gear creator to make mgs4 for 360 also since there will be more 360's out there when its released.
John @ Nov 21st 2006 1:09PM
#12
the mgs games are in my opinion the playstations best exclusives, gran turismo and final fantasy are good but i could go without them. mgs has a story to it and i guess many people just wanna see how it ends. final fantasys a good role playing but im sure we will see many just as good rpgs on the 360. and gran turismo is a good racing game but ive been seriously impressed by the likes of burnout and pgr on the ps3. mgs is a bit unique and so atm for me is the ps3's 'killer app'
if mgs4 comes out on the 360 the ps3 in finished as far as im concerned (as in il never buy one)
im not a fanboy for any console, i just get the best ;)
http://www.petitiononline.com/ps3/petition.html
John @ Nov 21st 2006 1:10PM
#13 - i said ps3 i meant 360! sorrry!
Spore @ Nov 21st 2006 1:10PM
Sony stock dropped another percent in Japan this week.... I think the paper said they're down 25% for the freaking year.
Mosatii @ Nov 21st 2006 1:12PM
@Tom
It comes down to the console specific games. An extremely small base for which to market games means that the developers putting out the PS3 specific games may be more easily loured away. Extreme shortages of PS3s, and no relief in sight means that many potential buyers will go else where. By the time PS3s reach market in bulk many of their target audience may already be gone.
Thats just one of many reasons why this is BAD, caps required to properly reflect the badness.
Wazatiste @ Nov 21st 2006 1:12PM
10 > Don't fucking insult Sega, damnit !
Guy @ Nov 21st 2006 1:13PM
@11
Tom, whatever you're smoking, I totally got to get me some of that.
"...the ps3 has too many positive things going for it."
And what, pray tell, would those positive things be? Blu-Ray??? 1080p???? The games????
John @ Nov 21st 2006 1:15PM
#17
im not! i love sega and my dreamcast! but i wish sega had done things differently and where still making consoles lol coz they rock!
i love sony but i dont want them to end up having to stop making consoles and scale down their business for trying to deliver more than they can
:)
BIGGEN @ Nov 21st 2006 1:15PM
i really feel for the sony faithfuls on this one. the ones that are die hard ps fans that haven't got one and refuse to buy 360 or wii. they are just wanting their favorite console like everyone else and can't get one.
crono141 @ Nov 21st 2006 1:17PM
Alot of people are going to lose their jobs in the near future. I don't feel very sorry for Ken or Kaz, but its all the little people that are gonna get boned when playstation devision collapses under its own colossal weight.
socrates @ Nov 21st 2006 1:20PM
The outlook for sales on PS3 games in the 4th quarter of 2006 is grim, but that doesn't necessarily translate into hampering the PS3 long term. As far as marketing efforts are concerned Sony is riding a HUGE high right now - they have really entered the regular public's consciousness as the "incredibly valuable impossible to get" item, something like a cross between an ipod and a Tickle Me Elmo at its most popular.
The other day at the Coolidge Corner EBGames, (a place I know some of the Joystiq editors frequent) I was picking up FFV Advance and HL2 (strangely never played it), and a mother who had left her kids in the store during some Trader Joe's shopping came in, and out of the corner of her eye she saw the PS3 kiosk, (playing Motorstorm, or something dumb like that) and stopped to gaze at it for like a minute....then she turned to the employees and said "WOW! That's incredibly life-like" etc. etc.
You combine that "WOW" factor with the incredible hype that was on display at the launch, and you have a potent combination. The fact that celebrities are buying this console in droves can't be underplayed - ...you WILL see PS3s in Pimp My Ride and not the Nintendo Wii (and not just because of the accident-prone-ness of the latter). I really don't see Sony ever getting to a point where they have a hard time moving these machines, even when production gets ramped up big time.
@ Nov 21st 2006 1:21PM
LOL.. look at all the fanbots tooting their horns thinking they'e analysts now.. these are the same idiots who were acting like cry babies because Slate said bad things about the Wii.
Joe Smith @ Nov 21st 2006 1:22PM
Wow. What a shock. You mean SONY has been EXAGGERATING (lying)???!!?
Lou D @ Nov 21st 2006 1:25PM
Just on prior QC, I'd never buy a Sony. As a rule, I don't support MS either so I was forced to buy a Wii.
Oh the horror! :P
ExTester @ Nov 21st 2006 1:29PM
@5
That DVD like image quality is what you should typically expect from a bluRay disc unless it uses VC1 compression. And since Microsoft owns the VC1 rights, you shouldn't expect any movie from Sony to use VC1. Other studios that support both HD-DVD and bluRay will more likely be using VC1 for their bluRays.
The thing that gets me about bluRay is the lack of image quality consistancey.. In that I mean that you have 3 different codec compressions the studios can use. With the HD-DVD the defacto standard by the studios that support HD-DVD is VC1. I know both formats can output the same quality, but when buying a movie you will start to wonder if the movie has been encoded with MPEG2 or H.264 or VC1. HD-DVD is simple in that, if its a movie it will be in VC1. And thats why I said the bluRay is missing in image quality consistancy.
SlayerRB @ Nov 21st 2006 1:29PM
I try to not to be biased. But with the PS2 issues. (Yes I got one before and after the first revision and had issues with both). I am really lossing faith in the Playstation.
I got the Wii and no launch complications. It is nice to really want a system and to be able to get it with no snags or concerns if this product make it a year.
Christopher @ Nov 21st 2006 1:30PM
I think it's pretty much certain MGS4 will be coming to 360. We all know the system is capable since Kojima let drop in an interview some time ago that the 360 can run MGS4 with no problems. Given Sony's inability to manufacture the PS3 in large numbers,it almost guarantees that PS3 penetration is going to lag behind 360 well into next year. And unless the price drops, which it prob. won't in late 2007, 360 will keep the edge. If you're Konami, there's little market sense in keeping a game exclusive for a console that'll prob. only have a fraction of 360's penetration. What'll be interesting is how soon MGS4 comes out for 360 -- will it be like GTA4 this time?
epobirs @ Nov 21st 2006 1:31PM
Gee, maybe if they cut the working SPE count on the Cell to six...
Speaking of which, hasn't anyone else noticed Sony's campaign of false advertising? In the PS3 print ad in the latest issue of WIRED, they tout the Cell as having eight SPEs, even though it's been over a year since the count was reduced to seven to overcome severely low yields of full spec Cells.
crono141 @ Nov 21st 2006 1:32PM
Socrates, ">" :
What you fail to realize is that sony has had 9 months to work out MFG kinks in blu-ray player and cell processor, and they haven't/can't. Do you think one day they magically will? It'll go from suck to success overnight? I work in MFG, it doesn't happen that way. If they are still having the huge problems now, it'll be 3 to 6 months before the kinks now are worked out and then another 3 to 6 months before all the NEW kinks are worked out.
What the BIG picture means, is that sony will only be producing 200,000 to 400,000 units a month for the next 6 months to a year. Thats a range of 1.2 million to 3.6 million produced between now and next christmas. Do you really think that a year from now, when there are only 4 million PS3 in homes that 3rd party support won't jump to x360 which will have at least 15 million (maybe 20) or Wii which will have 10 to 15 million?
DO you think publishers will honestly think thats a good idea? This is VERY BAD NEWS for sony. Fanboyism has NOTHING to do with it. If sony can't ramp up production to where they need it within the next 6 months, they are done. PS3 will be as great a failure as the N64: No third party support means alot less games, means alot less interested parties (consumers), means lackluster sales once production does ramp up.
Once again. VERY BAD NEWS.
@ Nov 21st 2006 1:34PM
"Speaking of which, hasn't anyone else noticed Sony's campaign of false advertising? In the PS3 print ad in the latest issue of WIRED, they tout the Cell as having eight SPEs, even though it's been over a year since the count was reduced to seven to overcome severely low yields of full spec Cells."
Cell does have 8 SPEs.. the Cell Broadband Processor in the PS3 has 7... its like Nintendo saying that 480p = HD.
Marty @ Nov 21st 2006 1:34PM
For everyone who believes that a poor launch and lack of units won't affect the PS3 long-term, you are only partially correct.
The PS3 will likely come back a bit once more units are available, and better games are out... but right now, holiday season '06, is a crucial time for the three companies to get their consoles into homes. Publishers / developers are going to notice when there are millions of 360's and Wii's going around, and only a few hundred thousand PS3's. The number of these consoles in people's homes directly affects the success of their software, and any reasonable publisher is going to put pressure on it's devs to get software out for the more prevalent platforms. Retailers will also notice the lack of software / hardware sales, and will adjust the amount of space they devote in their store to the PS3 accordingly. What do you think happened to the PSP?
And >, I gotta say... once again you have blown me away with your own strange brand of fanboyism / stupidity. I haven't read or heard anything about Slate giving bad marks to Wii, and I do not own one or plan on getting one anytime soon, but do you really expect Slate, part of the MSN network, to give a fair review to the other consoles?
johnnieblue @ Nov 21st 2006 1:34PM
Wow. That sucks.
soccergm17 @ Nov 21st 2006 1:36PM
I think alot of it comes from Sony heckling Microsoft over the first year of the the 360 launch (two SKU's, limited launch supply, worldwide launch....etc....). Then to only to do the exact same thing they were criticizing...and not do it as well. That's not even counting the fact that they released a product a year past the 360 and reduced the original specs. Alot of this backlash from the Microsoft folks may be a lot less if Sony had just stayed quiet...:-)
Cuddlefish @ Nov 21st 2006 1:36PM
Well you can now be assured that every single PS3 game will be delayed until units are readily available. The same thing happened with the PS2. I got mine at launch in October with 2 games and didn't buy a new game until the following March and that was a shitty game (Oni) because I was so desperate to use my PS2 for something other than playing DVDs. If the situation really is this bad, developers will start moving PS3 exclusives over to the 360 besides delaying titles.
MarxMarvelous37 @ Nov 21st 2006 1:41PM
@32 Marty -
"I haven't read or heard anything about Slate giving bad marks to Wii, and I do not own one or plan on getting one anytime soon, but do you really expect Slate, part of the MSN network, to give a fair review to the other consoles?"
Not that I'm defending ">", but for the sake of accuracy the Slate/Wii story was just a few posts down on Joystiq (http://www.joystiq.com/2006/11/21/slate-on-wii-ennui/)
And, Microsoft no longer has any interest in Slate:
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9588_22-5499575.html
Firegirl @ Nov 21st 2006 1:41PM
I personally hope this kills Sony, they deserve it. Why would I want to pay $600 or more for something that doesn't even work correctly. They made (and are making) people wait forever, the damn thing should at least work. And to top it off, where are the decent games for this thing? If I bought one in the near future, it would be a $600 paperweight for me, yuck! I'm off to play some Gears...
Tom @ Nov 21st 2006 1:42PM
16: I appreaciate your feedback, I'd enjoy having a frank discussion of ideas with you.
18: Your ideas sound more like their more involved in video game journalism ideas and opinions rather than thinking of the long-term business outcomes.
Of course I understand that a shortage of systems means a shortage of customers to purchase games. My point is regarding the extreme amount of people around the world. To me, this speaks volumes about how badly people want a ps3 (or, as a counterpoint to myself, how badly they want to sell a ps3). Regardless, the willingness of people to spend thousands of dollars on a system at least surpasses the demand for the 360 a little bit. I think people may be discounting Sony a bit prematurely, and accuse them of going the way of the Dreamcast, but I think it is important to remember than Sony is a much larger company than Sega was at tha t time, with many more resources at their disposal, and they will be able to vamp up their production, eventually, to meet the demand. Even if percentages of people become fed up with waiting for a ps3, my instict tells me that it really won't be enough to make the ps3 less successful than the 360.
Iscariote @ Nov 21st 2006 1:44PM
"The other day at the Coolidge Corner EBGames, (a place I know some of the Joystiq editors frequent)"
Haha I used to work there. All the cool people who worked there left a long time ago.
Flit @ Nov 21st 2006 1:45PM
"Cell does have 8 SPEs.. the Cell Broadband Processor in the PS3 has 7... its like Nintendo saying that 480p = HD."
No, it's like saying that blu ray discs are 50 gig, when there isn't a retail 50 gig disc yet, asshat. Harddrives can hold 100 terabytes, so we'll say that our playstation 3 has a harddrive, and in the same paragraph talk about how hard drives can hold 100 terabytes, so you'll think that the ps3 has 100 terabytes! Awesome!
pay the marketing people all of sony's money, because they sure as hell didn't use it on product testing and manufacturing costs.
Way to go asshat.
AnnieTaintUrWagon @ Nov 21st 2006 1:48PM
Outside of BluRay the PS3 is disappointing to me. I guess I was expecting superior graphics, not exactly mind blowingly better but atleast better than the 360's as every was seeming to claim and it's just not there.
Iscariote @ Nov 21st 2006 1:53PM
To add my opinion on the matter, the PS3 is impressive, but the 360 is just as impressive with fun games to play, it's cheaper and you can actually buy one now.
Wiltravo @ Nov 21st 2006 1:53PM
I always wondered why ppl (especially in the U.S.) dont support Microsoft? I know that most of the complaints are toward their PC division. It shouldn't spill over in their Xbox division. Until Microsoft gives me a reason to dislike the Xbox, (so far, so good)I will support them. Ppl need to realize that a corporation has different divisions. I may not like how they run the PC side, but I enjoy their console.
SP @ Nov 21st 2006 2:00PM
Did Isiah Thomas become the CEO of Sony recently?
socrates @ Nov 21st 2006 2:05PM
Crono -
It still pains me that such an idiot uses the name of the greatest video game ever made.
And what the hell is with the insinuation that I'm that > character? That guy is pretty much a childish moron. So are the vast majority of the choir of hype-drunk Wii-lovers. But I don't go around and obsfucate them with people who I might disagree with on some points yet make coherent arguments (32footsteps, etc). For you to lump two very clearly different people in together like that is indeed a disgusting case of rampant fanboyism.
As for what you said - this is the silliest claim I have ever read on this site. You think that manufacturing rates won't increase for a year, and that Sony will only have 1.5 mil available by Winter '07??? I don't even know how you could possibly think that is true. They've been working on getting the PS3 itself ready this past year - now they can turn their attention to solving the blue diode production issues. Oh, and they tend to figure out how to produce things more quickly and cheaply over time. Now excuse me, I need to go teach some children that 2 + 2 = 4.
crono141 @ Nov 21st 2006 2:16PM
Socrates, I was addressing you and ">" with my statement, not insinuating you were the same person. I know you're not, believe me.
And I did exaggerate a bit. There's a bit of math I didn't throw in there because I didn't know what sony "target" number for manufacturing would be "per month".
Lets assume the target number is 2 million per month. Worst case is 2.4 million for the first 6 months (thats 200,000 per month) and an additional 2 million per month after that. So sony could produce 14.4 million by next christmas, vs MS 20 million sold and nintendo's 10-20 million sold.
So if PS3 sells out every month until next year christmas (which never happens) we're talking about 15 million installed. It all depends on how well the other 2 do before we can call it doom and gloom, but I think the 360 will do very well because of no PS3's to buy, and Wii is already doing very well because of its uniqueness.
Skwurl @ Nov 21st 2006 2:24PM
#46
"but I think the 360 will do very well because of no PS3's to buy"
You're exactly right. In fact, the 360 & Wii (assuming Nintendo keeps on pumping out units) are the only new consoles that retailers are able to really push this season.
The bestbuy & futureshop in my area, as well as costco, are already pushing the 360 really hard. Right now, you can buy a 360 with GRAW, Live Aracde, 20GB detatchable HD, wireless controller and a headset for 499.99.
That's a decent deal.
socrates @ Nov 21st 2006 2:40PM
Ok, then dial down the anger of my response some! =)
I'd guesstimate the number of PS3s sold by Winter '07 at 9 million. I think that's fair. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii does 10-12 mil by that time.
Jon Senum @ Nov 21st 2006 2:44PM
#26,30 and 32 are the best comments yet. The Fanboyism is left out and they bring facts (i.e. TRUTH) to the table. Merrill Lynch analysts have publicly stated that in this generation of gaming systems Sony is going to lose big time. They predict that MS will have more consoles placed in peoples homes than Sony and Nintendo is also going to dramatically increase their marketshare. These are people that look at the numbers involved in the rollouts from pre-release PR to Mfg. to involvement of developers to availability figures raqther than their emotional attachment to a product. If Sony had just let the Blu-Ray thing go and gotten their product to market they would be in infinitely better shape than they are now. They made gamers suffer because of their desire to rule the DVD movie format wars. (Which was handled very nicely by #26.)
One other thing about the number of cels in use on the PS3. All the chips are tested before they are installed. The max number of cels being functional is 7, the minimum allowable is 5 and there are very, very, very few 7's. The problem with the CPU is that a MAJORITY of those chips are working at 4 cels or less so they have to be tossed. How long before Sony starts using those CPU's to try and get a hold of their production shortfall? Do you know how many cels are working in your PS3 (assuming you actually could get one)?
razer @ Nov 21st 2006 2:46PM
@40 - Great point! The MS that does your desktop computers and the MS that does Xbox are 2 very different divisions. Thats the one thing about Americans is they have no pride in their own countries business. Most Asian/EU countries are supportive of their local business(to a fault at times), but US never looks beyong the trend or price tag and thus the reason why we are losing in the global economy. With that aside, the 360 is an excellent product and I don't see how anyone can like a PS3 and not like an Xbox. This isn't the PS2 people and Sony don't give a funk about you so "Jump In" you won't be sorry!!