Sony's press is getting worse and worse after analysts took note of the PS3 launch. As predicted, Sony missed the 400,000 goal for US launch; many analysts predicted they only reached half that amount. To add insult to injury, some analysts expect Sony to only make roughly 10% of the original 4 million promised by year's end. Ouch!
In a report compiled by Bloomberg, Sony failed to ship even enough units to cover promised pre-orders to half of 150 stores surveyed. SooAnn Roberts, analyst with Kaufman Bros. (the company that surveyed the stores), is convinced that Sony may fail to ship more than 200,000 by year's end. Other analysts think Sony made 200,000 for launch and will struggle to match that number over the next month. Either way, Sony is in some serious trouble.
Even with all the problems they've had over the past year, the PS3 production problems will hit home with the consumer who rarely checks up on the news lines. While a myriad of issues plague the PS3's production, the biggest killer is the decision to use Blu-ray. Will the 50GB disc capacity be enough to make up for the nearly one year delay and significantly diminished production capacity, not to mention the price?
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(Page 2) Reader Comments
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You know it wouldn't hurt so much if Sony at least used KY...
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According to Sony's own figures (http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html), they sold 1.46 million PS2s in the United States during the first quarter they were available (10/26/2000 - 12/31/2000). If the PS2 really can not ship more than 400,000 to North America for this holiday season (and for the sake of fair comparison, including the month afterwards), you're looking at a North America launch that's less than a third of the PS2 launch.
Plus the competitive playing field is much tougher now than in 2000. Back then they beat MS to the market and only had to contend with the Dreamcast its first year. This time the PS3 is up against two very viable competitors in the Wii and 360.
I wouldn't count Sony out yet either, but they sure are tripping up at the starting gate with the PS3.
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And regarding exclusives, if I was a developer making a next-gen game I have a choice. Assuming it's really good game and 1 in 10 people who own the system buy my game, I can make $120MM on the 360 or $90MM on the PS3. Or I can make ~$150MM if I release it for both systems.
Sorry PS3 fans. Unless Sony can find a way to convince developers that it's a good idea to pass up $30-$60MM in revenues your "exclusives" are going to keep coming out on 360.
MS has the $$$ to sign $30MM exclusivity deals and not miss the money. Sony is losing $60MM/month just selling their hardware! Goodnight Sony, it's been fun.
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Ten years ago, I loved Sony, advocated minidisc (though not ATRAC) and nearly everything I owned was Sony. But eventually, even a whipped puppy learns not to come back. Receivers, VCRs, DVD players, a Tivo, portable stereos, walkmans, minidisc players, PS1, PS2, PSP... After over half the products prematurely failed or failed to attract enough support due to Sony's stubborn stance on proprietary formats, I'm through with Sony. I hope they got tits up in 5 years with all the money they have tied up in Blu-ray and PS3 development.
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Keep dreaming.
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Its looking like a WII360 Christmas all around the world this year.
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Sony has now had one year longer to develop the PS3 and yet there really isn't any real horsepower or functionality improvements over the 360. The developer of Gears of War has said that even though the PS3 video card has a little more horsepower it can't play GoW because it doesn't have enough usable video memory.
As far as BC is concerned Sony uses hardware emulation and will have a very hard time trying to improve upon any BC problems. Too bad they promised complete BC and now we find out it isn't going to happen. To MS's credit they said up front that not all games would be BC but that they would continue to work on them. Why is that? Because they use software emulation. They can BC anything they want as long as they have the time and product placement to make it worthwhile. They still continue to add to their BC availability.
As you can probably tell I am pissed at Sony and I think rightfully so. Thanks for letting me rant. Cheers!
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Based on the reports so far, it sounds like we're going to see around 7 million 360s sold by the end of the year, 2-2.5 million Wiis sold, and at most 500k Playstation 3s. Moreover, the former two are capable of churning out units, while Sony is still having issues making more.
At what point do developers start cancelling titles or converting them to other platforms? Look at it this way - if you spend $18 million to develop a PS3 title (which isn't even the upper bound to develop one, according to THQ), you have to sell a copy to every single current PS3 owner in order to pull even - and that's in a mythical world where the game publisher gets 100% of the money from a game sale (as opposed to the real world, where the retail chain gets a portion as well as Sony for the license rights). If you assume a half a million in the world by the end of 2006, then you just have to sell to 60% of the system owners - and just how many games are owned by 60% of a console's userbase?
To heck with what they'll be able to produce 6 months from now - if I'm a developer, I start worrying about what Sony can produce now, and whether or not it'd just be wiser to work on the other two.
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Sony is having issues keeping it's exclusives. And a couple guys here have stated that MGS4 will cause them not to buy and some like myself don't see why it is such a big game, but the fact of the matter is, it is a huge Sony franchise. When people talk about Xbox only having the Halo series as killer apps, I personally disagree. There were a lot of great exclusive on the Xbox, Mechassault, PGR, Forza, Fable, KOTR, Jade Empire, etc. Not to mention that there were many games that were released on both systems but only had online support on the Xbox version, and all Xbox live users were pretty much guaranteed to have a headset and use voice chat functions. The PS2 exclusive that people talk about are Devil May Cry, God of War, Metal Gear Solid, GranTurismo, Final Fantasy (and the slew of SquareEnix Clones). But when you look at the games, most of Sonys great exclusives were 3rd party developers. Who are becoming increasingly attracted to the 360. Most of MS hit games are all 1st and 2nd party titles, which will NEVER possibly be seen on Sony or Nintys systems. So I think that this lack of console availability, and failure to really entice 3rd parties is really what is going to be the downfall of the PS3. All those great exclusives are going to go multiplatform. Then what reason would anyone have to buy a PS3?
On a side note... The PS2 is obviously successful, but i wish there was a way to find out exactly how many systems are in use. I think now with all the systems being online and if they have a subscription system (free or not), that is going to be a large determining factor for developer support too. Most of us that had a launch PS2 had to buy another one after the revision cause it wouldn't read one disc type or another. I actually had to buy 3 PS2s due to faulty equipment. So, I wonder, with their 120Million unit sold, how many do you think are actually in homes? I would guess half that many. Which still puts it above the other two, but not by as much. But taking that into account, With subscriptions, you can see how many people are actively playing a given system on a regular basis. And devs already like microtransactions, so that will be a big factor for them as well.
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@#59: I believe the 360 has sold over 7 million units already, the figure is around 7.2 if I remember correctly.
On topic: The PS3 has some major issues. I truly wouldn't want to either be Sony or a Sony fanboy right now.
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The BluRay disc pictured is a professional disc (used in television cameras), hence the MiniDisc-like casing. For consumers, BluRay discs are "naked".
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:D"
Oh yeah, because you really want MS to control the gaming market.
Since when did MS become the plucky little underdog that everyone roots for?
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People started caring about a game company's stock when sega was forced out of the console hardware business due to a failed business plan. People are interested in Sony's stock because there is a very real possibility that it might happen to them as well.
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"You combine that "WOW" factor with the incredible hype that was on display at the launch, and you have a potent combination."
Until the mother of those children is told that it will cost her $800+ for the system, an extra controller, and a couple of games for little timmy and jimmy. All of that assumes that she is willing to wait in line for hours just for the chance to get one, which is highly unlikely.
"The fact that celebrities are buying this console in droves can't be underplayed"
And why is that? Celebrity endorsement fuels desire for certain products like clothing, but what the hell does that add to the (shrinking) PS3 demographic? Nobody is reading an article about P-Diddy's appearance for Sony and thinking "you know, I wasn't going to get a PS3 before, but P-Diddy's endorsement has really convinced me that it is a worthy purchase". Screenshots, videos, reviews, and peer gossip are what drive video game and console sales. All of this doesn't matter because even if you want a PS3 right now chances are you won't be able to get one for a while.
"I really don't see Sony ever getting to a point where they have a hard time moving these machines, even when production gets ramped up big time."
It's $600...before any games, controllers, tax, etc. That immediately puts it out of reach for tons of kids.
"As far as marketing efforts are concerned Sony is riding a HUGE high right now - they have really entered the regular public's consciousness as the "incredibly valuable impossible to get" item, something like a cross between an ipod and a Tickle Me Elmo at its most popular."
Again, it's apples and oranges. First, this damn thing is $600+. Even the most expensive ipod can't touch that. Second, the ipod was a revolutionary piece of technology that appealed to EVERYONE who liked music (which, no surprise, is essentially everyone alive). Look around and you see businessmen, housewives, teachers, lawyers, students, mailmen, etc., etc. with an Ipod. It was and still is a cultural phenomenon. How many of those people give a twit about the PS3 or videogames in general? To compare the PS3 to an Ipod is ludicrous.
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As for Resistance being a killer app... hardly. It looks great, undeniably, but killer app? Nearly every single review I've read of it says it isn't as entertaining as GoW. It's overall rating is not in "killer app" territory, in fact it's lagging behind Oblivion, which you blew off as not a killer app. It's right with GRAW, Burnout 360 and Call of Duty 2. Again, games you blew off as not killer apps.
So is Resistance a killer app? Of course not. Especially when the system is $600. It's a great app, but not a killer one, it will not make people buy the system. Even Gears isn't quite a Killer App, it's close, but it's no Zelda, it's no Mario, it's no Halo, and it's no Final Fantasy.
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oh, one more thing...when the xbox360 first came out and microsoft was pushing how it had great online capabilities, sony came out and said that the online capabilities are not that important and that great games are supposed to attract buyers to a console....funny how they COPIED microsoft's xbox live almost EXACTLY!
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Except that MS's online experience is functional, adds to the overall gaming experience (Marketplace, XBLA, etc.) and maintains a standard quality of play for all developers. Otherwise, great post.
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How many units are still lurking in eBay, and how many units are defective? (probability of defective units: for all intents and purposes 100%. Even Nintendo had defective units)
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http://www.gamespot.com/news/6162154.html
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I take PS3 and Wii over Xbox any day. Not that I don't USA consoles. I rather have atari systems than microsoft. If your only into First Person shooters than Xbox 360 is for you. But if you like multi games than PS3 will be the system. I take FFXIII over any crappy gears of war.
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Posted at 12:49PM on Nov 21st 2006 by SP 0 stars
Wow...it's not very often a posting gets more than a smile from me, that really made me laugh...you win...something for your trouble.
The Knicks sucked before him BTW
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back on topic...
somebody said up above the PS3 will pull ahead next year.
But that's just it, they MIGHT do just that. IF they can produce more units to sell. A ton of people passed on the 360 last holiday because they couldn't find one! The same thing will happen to the PS3 this holiday...and beyond most likely. And even moederate gamers read magazines every once in awhile, go to IGN once a week. Eventuall, "the word on the street" gets to people that the 360 has GREAT games, and more people will jump on the 360 bandwagon. IF they were REALLY smart, they CUT production of the CORE IMMEDIATELY and drop the price on the PREMIUM $50 bucks to $350 and a choice of one FREE GAME of three launch games (let's say PGR3, COD2 & PDZ) with purchase of XBOX LIVE for one year...they do that say tomorrow? In time for BLACK FRIDAY...it'd be GAME, SET AND MATCH....
Of course anytime before 12/24 it'd still sell like hotcakes...
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Uh...so where is it Einstein? By your own admission others already have it. What's the hold up? How many years of delay can we expect on this? IF Sony wanted to use it they would be already, unfortunately for them it's all about catch up now.
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I take PS3 and Wii over Xbox any day. Not that I don't USA consoles. I rather have atari systems than microsoft. If your only into First Person shooters than Xbox 360 is for you. But if you like multi games than PS3 will be the system. I take FFXIII over any crappy gears of war."
Posted at 6:46PM on Nov 21st 2006 by Joey 0 stars
So let me get this straight... You won't buy an Xbox 360 because it's made by a company which you feel overprices and underdelivers in a completely different and separate division (PC software), but are totally willing to buy a PS3 from the Sony company which overprices and underdelivers in the very division you are buying from? What crazy logic is that?
Your personal bias in this case is quite detrimental to your gaming enjoyment. Consumers should be more concerned with the actual product quality/value, not the sticker slapped on it (which is why I own a Zen and not an iPod).
I don't favor Sony products over other electronics simply because the quality is generally worse and the price is generally higher. However, though the PS3 is technically a consumer electronic device, it is produced in a different division of the company, one which is generally more competitive. However at a price $200 above it's closest competition, it hardly seems like a value, and recent reviews would confirm this opinion. Microsoft on the other hand is a startup company in the area of gaming hardware and that division of the company has impressed me. That's all that matters. MS's PC software shouldn't influence my decision on my next gaming console any more than Sony's next Hollywood movie.
With your logic, if I thought the new James Bond movie sucked (which I didn't, I actually liked it) and wasn't worth my $9.50, I shouldn't even consider the PS3 for purchase.
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Hey I can't say I can understand a Sony fan
believeing it was goint to make the 4 million year end
number, But still it is way more understandable than the
Delveopers and Publishers felling for it! DUH they are
businesses afterall. If any of them fell for it SHAME!
Stupidity is free! The results are not! Now pay up!
Whats that? You supprised your top game only sold 100,000?
Duh with Thats a awesome attach rate but if you had common sense
you would have known it was goint to be a fraction of what they
stated. Even Microsoft hinted at this for you! Pay attention!
now your losing money on a top title? SUCKERS!
Come on Sony Go straight the thought of a Microsoft having only
Nintendo as a competitor is scary! Just stop the lying! And produce
you dont have to have a system as powerful as 360 to compete
the blind money from pubishers and loyal fans can say you for
1/2 a year the rest is up to you!
Mywhitenoise don't wait to long to sell it! Or you may find
out that MSG4 is on 360 like EGM rumor section (which was right
the last two times about MGS going multi platform) is correct.
If it is correct you are at least guarranteed to be a better
texture version of the game. Worst case senario! Sell it! FAST!
Then put the money on credits at a store to insure you
will use it on your system in the future! After that wait!
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Answer:
Yes, absolutely-- if you have an HD TV. Sony is positioning themselves on the front edge of the HDTV revolution. They will have high capacity games and Blu-ray HD movies. In the US, HDTV will become standard over time and Sony will be the only console with the complete trifecta of HD gaming, HD movie consumption, and online browsing / content.
The fact that they may be hard(er) to get a hold of has little to do with anything, really. It's astonishing to think about how short of a memory people have. Every launch has problems. Let's look at this generation in a fair light:
XBox 360: Bugs, overheating, and average launch titles at best. Over time it matures nicely. Hasn't really sold mass quantities, though. Could it be people were waiting to see about the Wii and PS3? Biggest problems are lack of standard hard drive or high-def movie playback, and lack of Japanese interest.
Wii: Invites disaster and carpal tunnel, but also challenges and tries something different with it's control scheme. Has only 1 good launch title, just like everyone else. Doesn't have HD, which is a real problem, and no movie playback. It's biggest selling point is price and some Nintendo-only games like Zelda / Metroid. Has a lot of Japanese interest and may piggyback on Nintendo hand-held success.
PS3: Doesn't have any major bugs out of the gate, but suffers from a lack of units in the retail chain. Launches with 1 very good game and a couple competent games at launch. Does HD out of the box and have HD movie playback and hard-drive storage standard. Only major hindrance is possibly price and availability. Will it ramp up like everyone expects as high profile franchises come back to PS3 early / mid 2007?
Caveat: I think it's laughable to count Sony out and they will probably be top dog again for this generation. They might loose the dominance the PS2 had, but to say this race it too close to call FAR too early, would be a massive understatement.
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I'm sure that Sony will have it's production problems worked out soon - they have a lot experience at producing electronics, after all - but the question is how long and how much momentum will they lose?
It certainly seems like all three companies will remain in "the game" this time around... MS will not likely be crushed by the PS3 anytime soon, since they have another holiday shopping season without the PS3 to worry about (I'm assuming only the true hardcore fans who are willing to ebay or wait in long lines will have managed to score a PS3, or get one in the next month)... and the Wii launch seems to have gone well. I didn't expect it to sell out, people must be pretty excited about it.
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While I agree that launch isn't everything this is not good for Sony. The difference between the PS3 and PS2 launches was that DVD was a settled technology and PS2's were a cheap way to get a player. Unfortunately for Sony,the same can't be said for Blu-Ray. It appears to be trailing and without PS3's to shore up the sales it could turn into a double whammy for Sony. If they don't get the units out it will impact both game publishers and eventually video (movie) retailers.
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Yes, the Wow! factor and the popularity may be big, but what's bigger is the price of the damn thing.
Also, celebrities are wishy washy...they'll show off a game system or a type of clothing for money...once people realized they're sheep following a sheepeard, i think they'll stop.
Yes the PS3 is popular with lots of people, but that doesnt mean that lots of people have it. Sony ca get through this if it wasnt so expensive.
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We are closer on seeing to consoles who are will be alike. Xbox 360 has taken its path with some good games, that have appear in an early past. PS3 has some SERIOUS SERIOUS SERIOUS problems, that will affect enormously to the Sony Company. Sony is putting all its
efforts on their gaming branch, just to impose new technology that Sony has created. Mediums that are not exactly as efficient as Sony is stating.
There are times and place, and Sony is not following this nature. Sony's ambition will sink them. Blu-Ray is not use on this time on history, it could work later on but its not the time to produce such kind of technology.
They have put so much emphasis to their technology that they have forgotten the most important part on the gaming industries: THE GAMES. We want to be entertained, the console barely does that, the console is a medium to be able in playing games. For example, I could make a Cinema on my House but without the movies it fails on its purpose.
I'm really disappointed on what Sony has to give. They could have leaved the PS3 for one more year and MAYBE they could have succeeded. When I buy a new console, I buy it with the sole purpose of getting entertained not to wasted my money on garbage.
I just got the Wii, and I must say that I'm completely impress on how Nintendo have manage to triumph (its too early to called it a triumph, but it looks closer to success than the PS3).
Entertainment is for everyone. Entertainment is not designed for an elite. Everyone has the right to be entertained.
Nintendo has proven us that everyone can play video games, not just the hardcore gamers. When we go to the cinema we like to watch a good movie, that entertain us. We don't like to watch movies that the director has made incomprehensible by some attitude of egocentrics.
We could call video games the eight art. Every type of art begins with the objective of entertain the audiences with different styles of expressing it. Nintendo is doing its job, and helping developers by using a developer kit not so different that of the gamecube.
I have a question? We know that films started on black and white, as time progressed, they had the tools to record the film in color. Until know, that we still use the color to express ourselves, becuase we know that theres not much beyond after the usage of color. Now I ask you, what about when graphics become photorealistics. Theres not much ahead of that. We need to focus on gameplay, because graphics have an end. Gameplay doesn't, thats where Nintendo is focusing.
That doesn't mean that Playstation 3 or Xbox 360 don't have the power to continue making good games with good gameplay, look at Gears of War. Now we have seen that Nintendo has taken a correct path. A path that soon many companies will take, not because is easier to make games is because is more efficient to the consumer use its body (that is the thing that we are most familiar with) to play games. The same goes with Music, Movies, Theatre, Painting, Writing, Sculpture, Architecture.
We have the right to get entertained. Sony is not taking the right choices to accomplish said purpose. Nintendo is reinventing how games are played. Microsoft is bringing some good games with a good online service.
- Pabjvar
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