Next-gen auction prices fall as supplies increase
by Kyle Orland 
{ Nov 22nd 2006 at 12:45PM }
An analysis of eBay auctions from the last week shows that the average selling prices for the Wii and PS3 have fallen precipitously from highs reached late last week, though the systems still auction for significantly more than their retail prices. At the same time, supplies of the systems on the popular auction site have skyrocketed since launch, with thousands of auctions closing for each system every day.
Average auction prices for both systems reached a high last Friday, with the Wii going for an average of over $580 (roughly 233 percent of retail) and the PS3 averaging nearly $2,400 sale prices (an astounding 397 percent of the retail price). Since then, prices have come down to more reasonable but still inflated levels, with Tuesday's Wii auctions ending at an average of just over $400 and PS3 auctions averaging just under $1,200.
Unsurprisingly, the number of completed auctions for each system peaked on the day after launch, with campers trying to turn their systems around for a quick profit in one day auctions. Over 6,000 PS3 auctions finished on the 18th and over 7,000 Wii auctions were completed on the 20th. PS3 auctions have slightly outpaced Wii auctions thus far, with nearly 15,000 Sony systems auctioned in the past week compared to just under 14,000 Wiis.
Read on for a more detailed breakdown of the past week's next generation system auctions on eBay.
All data generated by eBay Marketplace Research.
Average Auction ending prices
| Date | Wii Price | PS3 Price | Wii % of Retail | PS3 % of Retail |
| 11-15 | $499.18 | $1,841.65 | 200.47% | 307.45% |
| 11-16 | $581.51 | $2,379.47 | 233.54% | 397.24% |
| 11-17 | $576.44 | $2,077.82 | 231.50% | 346.88% |
| 11-18 | $543.45 | $1,324.88 | 218.25% | 221.18% |
| 11-19 | $462.08 | $1,296.03 | 185.57% | 216.37% |
| 11-20 | $397.81 | $1,163.67 | 159.76% | 194.27% |
| 11-21 Overall* |
$404.64 $423.85 |
$1,172.83 $1,405.27 |
162.51% 170.22% |
195.80% 234.60% |
* - Overall averages are weighted by number of auctions (see below)
# of Completed Auctions
| Date | Wii | PS3 |
| 11-15 | 147 | 135 |
| 11-16 | 139 | 287 |
| 11-17 | 362 | 2158 |
| 11-18 | 603 | 6032 |
| 11-19 | 2236 | 1663 |
| 11-20 | 7132 | 3085 |
| 11-21 Total |
3126 13745 |
1626 14986 |
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Skwurl @ Nov 22nd 2006 12:50PM
Anyone here at joystiq actually playing their PS3?
HappyJack @ Nov 22nd 2006 1:15PM
Here's a simple equation: if you pay more than $1000 for a PS3, you are a tool.
Honestly, you're spending hundreds of dollars so you can play Resistance a few months before eveyone else? Lame.
Scott @ Nov 22nd 2006 12:53PM
The PS3 auctions really nosedived Friday once everyone got home with their PS3s. At one point there was over 36k PS3s. There are just over 16k PS3s on eBay now and dropping. I'd bet that that number will jump back up significantly on Black Friday.
Even now though I'm not sure about these final prices because it seems like alot of the winning bidders are griefers with low or no bid history who have no intention of paying. This forces sellers to relist or offer second chance offers at a much lower price.
> @ Nov 22nd 2006 12:54PM
The biggest winner here is clearly eBay with all their posting costs and percent take from final sales.
@1.. squirrel.. no, if you remember from 2 weeks ago, most people here (over 50%) own 360s..
Jeff @ Nov 22nd 2006 12:53PM
I doubt this factors in uncompleted auctions. If you check the completed auctions (which you have to be a member to do), you'll see about half of all PS3 auctions don't sell at all, whatever the price. If you do it, you need to scroll down past the featured auctions - most of those do sell just because they're always at the top of the list. Go to the next page and there will be a lot more unsold.
Factor that in and the average price is going to be a lot closer to regular retail. And that's what matters to a seller. Mathematically, there's no real advantage to having a 50% chance of selling at $1,200 and a 50% chance of not selling at all vs. a 100% chance of selling at $600, although a lot of sellers would probably still rather go for the big payout.
But it also shows that there's really not a premium being paid *at all* anymore, on average. Though prices have definitely dropped - but with the percentage of completed auctions factored in, my guess is they were never as high as first reported to begin with. If 100 people are selling PS3's and one guy sells his for $5,000 and 99 people don't sell theirs at all, the "average selling price" of $5,000 is tremendously misleading, bordering on the absurdly irrelevant.
mray73 @ Nov 22nd 2006 12:56PM
Nice article, though it states what we already know. Namely, that the price is a reflection of supply and demand at a given time.
I would have liked to have seen a supply and demand graph with a supply curve and demand curve. That way, it would be easier for people to see that the pricing levels occur at the point where the 2 curves intersect.
Unless Sony drops the ball again and is unable to get more systems to stores, we will likely see the PS3 eBay prices stay in the $900 - 1000 range through Christmas, and then drop off again the day after.
Andrew @ Nov 22nd 2006 1:00PM
I believe this is called Economics....Prices fall as supply increases.
Scott @ Nov 22nd 2006 1:00PM
This does make me wonder about how the guy that hired a bunch of homeless guys to camp out at a Target for the PS3 made out. You'd think between the truck rental, the homeless guys rental, providing food and drink to the homeless guy, etc he didn't make much if any profit.
Jose @ Nov 22nd 2006 1:06PM
Okay, so I was under the impression that Wiis shipped significantly more consoles at launch than PS3s, well over double the number actually. So why would there be more PS3 auctions, and less Wii auctions? Number of units available alone should dictate that there should be more Wii auctions, but this isn't the case. Instead, customers who bought the Wii actually wanted it, and are probably quite pleased with the three games they bought with the console, not to mention all the accessories, but no one who lined up to get a PS3 actually wanted it to keep. $600 was more of an investment, with hopes of a return, than an actual purchase.
Marty @ Nov 22nd 2006 2:08PM
Prices fall as the amount of units rises? Quite an amazing analysis guys... in other breaking news, 1+1=2, the sky is blue, and the sun is hot.
Werbal @ Nov 22nd 2006 1:19PM
I've seen a number of PS3 auctions topping out at around $800. Not a bad return, but probably not what some of the scaplers were hoping for, considering you had guys taking DAYS off of work, likely dreaming of an $800 payout.
Sean @ Nov 22nd 2006 1:28PM
I noticed auctions prices falling sharply as well. This makes me happy. I hate vultures taking advantage of people who just want to play their damn games. Not that I support the PS3, mind you, but I still think it's a crappy thing to do.
I also wonder how people are liking their PS3's. It's really funny, I haven't read any comments on any gaming site about people talking about their PS3. Whereas the Wii, people are going ape shit and constantly talking about it. Did anyone actually buy a PS3 to *play*? What about the people buying them on eBay, do they not participate in online discussions, or are they just so disgusted with how crappy the PS3 is that they don't want to be embarrassed by posting their story about spending $2000 on a piece of shit console.
Brandon @ Nov 22nd 2006 1:49PM
This kinda makes sense, as the market becomes more saturated the price will decrease in an auction because people will spread out and bid on other ones while the price of the ones currently going says the same since people have found others that are not as high priced.
SuicideNinja @ Nov 22nd 2006 1:57PM
@ Sean,
That's a good point...either the PS3 is so amazing they are speechless and are too busy playing it...or it is so disappointing people are shying away from discussion with their tail between their legs, embarrassed for blindly believing Sony (again)?
It's probably a mixture of both I'm guessing. From what I've seen so far...the $600 isn't justified at all, unless you want NBA Live '07 or whatever it is. That game looks really good graphically, but I hate basketball games (except Double Dribble and NBA JAM). Or if Blu-ray is your thing.
I'm going to buy a Wii whenever I see one in Wal-mart. The PS3 "reserved spot" in my living room can continue to have older brother hold it's spot for now.
Vincent Avatar @ Nov 22nd 2006 2:00PM
This just in! Supply and demand seem to affect each other in the marketplace! More as the story develops.
JBone @ Nov 22nd 2006 2:07PM
To the people bashing those that try to make a profit on EBay: It is quite simple, if there were not people willing and able to pay the inflated prices, there would be no one trying to sell at these inflated prices. It is the CONSUMER that sets the prices, not the VENDOR. No one would pay the EBay fees knowing that they were NOT going to sell an item. But as long as someone richer than me is willing to buy my PS3 for $1500, so be it. I should not be the one to blame. Also, you will see the price re-peak in mid-december. Kids have not even given their parents the wish-list yet and people will panic and supply will be low so the price will go up. They are low now because of the influx of thousands of machines available. Just wait until mid-december. $1200 will look like a sale.
Kelvin @ Nov 22nd 2006 2:15PM
If Sony is as smart (unlikely) and nefarious (likely) as I think, they're still making a profit from eBaying their own stock at this price point.
The Radical Cleric @ Nov 22nd 2006 2:19PM
Lots of pretty graphs, but as others have mentioned you didn't take all the fake auctions into account.
Due to the number of griefers and statistical outliers, the average price shown would seem to be next to meaningless.
Jay @ Nov 22nd 2006 2:27PM
#15 JBOne:
Seriously, does anyone esle here agree with JBOne?
The price of course will go up with deman towards xmas, and I was thinking people haven't heard what the kids want yet. Post Black Friday 'Jingle all the Way' hysteria hasn't even kicked in yet and people still havent gotten their Nov 30th paychecks.
In which case I do think the prices will go up... but this is all depending on if Sony will be delivering more units to NA.
What does everyone else think? You think this '200k shipped to NA in 2006' buzz is true?
Or will Sony pull through and ramp it up to 400k and beyond before Jan 1 2007?
Even if so, how much of that will matter?
Looking at the chart, we're already a smidge on the rebound for the 21st... who thinks the price will bounce back above $2k for December?
FrankTheCrank @ Nov 22nd 2006 2:49PM
This is not the year to own a PS3. Next Christmas is. There is a drought of triple A titles. It makes absolutely no sense to purchase one now. And if you do buy one at a higher cost, you get what you deserve.
XBOX360 seems to be in a good position, but I'm still weary of buying one, although those Ridge Racer comparison shots make me want to buy it more. I'm not willing to play $399 for a Premium Bundle. Still too high. They need to get that number down. XBOX360 has only a couple AAA titles. I'm not spending over $550 to play three games(gears+halo+RR).
PS2 still has some good games. Not the prettiest graphics in town, but not terrible. And anyways, I got an Nvidia 7800...I can hold out another 12 months.
At some point, it's going to come down to price. You are talking about two heavyweights battling it out...at some point their going to drop prices.
If M$ drops that core box to $199...all hell's going to break loose. GUARANTEED!!!
Kyle Orland @ Nov 22nd 2006 3:15PM
This should have been noted in the post, but we took pains to remove outliers by setting an upper limit on sale price for the auctions we considered. We also used other filters to make sure each auction was for just the system, not some sort of bundle or related item (games, etc.)
jayntampa @ Nov 22nd 2006 2:57PM
I dunno what you're smoking, but there is nowhere near 16,000 PS3's on eBay ... there are around 2,600
http://video-games.search.ebay.com/playstation-3-system_Systems_W0QQcatrefZC12QQfromZR40QQsacatZ62054
rodney @ Nov 22nd 2006 3:15PM
About 10,000 once you get rid of all the idiots out there trying to sell you an email address.
http://search.ebay.com/search/search.dll?sofocus=bs&sbrftog=1&catref=C6&from=R10&satitle=ps3+-japan+-japanese+-email+-address+-wii+-guide&sacat=62054%26catref%3DC6&sargn=-1%26saslc%3D2&sadis=200&fpos=14845&ftrt=1&ftrv=1&saprclo=&saprchi=&fsop=1%26fsoo%3D1&coaction=compare&copagenum=1&coentrypage=search&fgtp=
Safety Helmet @ Nov 22nd 2006 3:25PM
Astonishingly insightful journalism.
Stay tuned for:
NEWS ALERT!!! THE MOON IS NOT CHEESE - EASTER BUNNY FOUND NOT TO BE REAL
dejon @ Nov 22nd 2006 8:03PM
amazingly incorrect. i surfed through 350 pages of ps3 auctions out of the 400 or so pages a few days ago (dont ask why but i was amused by the idiot pictures of people thinking they were rich), saw about 12000 ps3s listed all going for around $1000 or less. I checked recently ended auctions sorted them by price, and you'd be amazed, taking bundles out of the equation was your biggest mistake. While preorder ps3s did go for $2500 avg a few weeks ago, the ones from the store that are in hand have been going around $900-1000 or so, some even with extra controllers and resistance. The market is oversaturated and im so glad those ebay campers are getting their 3 days of campings worth in a profit margin of >50%.
Hak Foo @ Nov 22nd 2006 4:05PM
Thanks Kyle! I was wondering what the analysis looked like and was unfamiliar with Ebay marketplace research.
Despite everyone's way too obvious comment of supply/demand, I find the price points interesting. I also find it very interesting that my thought process that decided it would be a good idea to list a short 24 hour auction to try to beat the flood was a very common idea. Even though it was a common idea the PS3's still went for marginally higher than they would have on subsequent days, so I'm happy.
Cory @ Nov 22nd 2006 4:05PM
I think prices will rise near x-mas...but I have 1 PS3 that I want to get rid of...anyone interested? (email me at cordor12@yahoo.com )
JuLeSx7d7 @ Nov 22nd 2006 9:12PM
Very intresting article. As being one of the many to put up their PS3 on Ebay. I humbly have to say that we got what we deserve. Comming to the conclusion that so many people (who don't even have a passion for video games) stood in line to pre-purchace one to resell for a hugh profit. Call it providence or divine intervention (maybe even Karma) but those that have pictures of 20 stacked PS3s in their living room on Ebay now have to find a way to get all that money back or eat the cost. I would not be too suprised if some of these folks actually returned the systems back to the stores they bought them in because they can not afford to keep them in the long run. A lession learned. but despite the blu-ray mishap and the back stabing that Sony is doing to their third party companies, I still believe that the "Playstation" can out perform the 360, unfortunetly I may take a year or so to undo all these horrendous mistakes on Sony's behalf. < IXOYE > <
anomie @ Nov 22nd 2006 11:25PM
I bought one at Best Buy today (called at just the right time and sped down there right before they sold out), I do want to play it, but I'm selling it on eBay.
I'm not a Sony fanatic, I'm not a scalper, and I don't care about Blu-Ray (I don't have and can't afford an HDTV). I never got a PS2 and want to buy one, but feel like it'd be a waste of money at this point. If I can somehow get a PS3 for around the price I would have paid for a PS2 (after subtracting profit from my current PS3, if I make one now...hoping demand jumps after Black Friday *cross fingers*), it's a good deal for me.
Russ @ Nov 23rd 2006 3:08PM
I for one am a dissappointed consumer. I have read that Sony already is in "talks" to produce a new "Playstation 4,"... yes "4" console within the next decade. Yes, that is fine,.... but am I the only one annoyed at this? I mean,... you haven't even got a decent library for the PS-3 yet, and the manafacturer is already in talks on putting a new console out with the development team! Don't these people realize it's the games that make ot break the consoles,..? No matter what the console boasts... Is there more technology they didn't put into the PS-3 that was left out for 4?... Then why did I pay the $600,... now to hear nothing about games, but a new colsole? Providing and developing A NEW CONSOLE should be very, very far into the future, and the LAST THING THAT SHOULD BE IN "TALKS" with the manafacturer Sony. Getting that price down should be the first. With the economy the way it is,.... and jobs paying less and expecting more,... they got "balls" to amp up the price as high as they did,... no matter what the hell this thing does. Is it any wonder to Saony that most of the people that bought the Ps3, were doing so to "re-sell" for a profit? What does this say about the industry? Unless we are talking "virtual-reality" technology,.... it's just another console with great grapics, and limited to your TV's capabilities. I think it is a better console,... yes,... but gimme' a damn game library first!!!!,... then talk more $$$ and future consoles......"future" to be keyword here.
jim @ Dec 21st 2006 5:17PM
Unfortunately it looks like they are lumping in package auctions that include extra games and controllers in with console only auctions. So the numbers are pointless.
online auction @ Dec 25th 2006 12:36PM
For something like this it is the best to use reverse online auction system.
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