Another analyst: Microsoft execs feeling good about Xbox
by Ludwig Kietzmann 
{ Dec 1st 2006 at 3:55PM }
Now, some psychoanalysis on Microsoft executives would be quite entertaining ("Tell me about these lucid dreams, Peter."), especially when compared to the recent observations made by Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets. In his earth-shattering report, Mr. Sebastian describes the folks behind the Xbox brand as "upbeat" given the commercial success of Gears of War, the company's considerable launch lead against competitors and consistent growth in Europe. Japan, not so much.The Xbox 360's 2007 lineup (featuring Space Ring 3) and catalogue of HD shows and movies are also expected to have a positive effect on this year's holiday sales. Sebastian believes that fleeting Wii and PS3 stock will prove to be Microsoft's greatest advantage, with desperate parents picking up a 360 and convincing their rotten brats that it was the only console they could find. It's a likely scenario, but if recent sales in Japan have proven anything, it's that the PS2 and DS Lite are far more likely (and cheaper) replacements -- if indeed a replacement is sought at all. How about a nice fruitcake instead?
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
solomonrex @ Dec 1st 2006 4:08PM
How can you fail with the Space Ring franchise? I mean, really?
randomshagz @ Dec 1st 2006 4:52PM
i think there are 3 great systems out. we are all lucky.
Neil @ Dec 1st 2006 4:09PM
Looking back when I was a kid I didn't want the replacement. If I couldn't get the Sega Genesis I wouldn't want the Turbografx. And now as an adult I don't buy an alternative gift for someone either. Of course this is just anecdotal but still, I doubt we'll see a huge sales increase of the Xbox 360 just because the PS3 or Wii are hard to come by. People would rather wait and get what they want.
dotmadhack @ Dec 1st 2006 5:00PM
Fleeting stock? Isn't Nintendo sending 200,000 units out every week?
Kumar Shah @ Dec 1st 2006 5:19PM
Recent sales in Japan? Where have you been living all these days?
Pyronite @ Dec 1st 2006 4:14PM
"I doubt we'll see a huge sales increase of the Xbox 360 just because the PS3 or Wii are hard to come by. People would rather wait and get what they want."
If a videogame system is what people want, they may well go with the Xbox 360. If the competition is sold out and parents are out shopping for Christmas, the lack of competition will definitely be a boon for the 360.
Kevin @ Dec 1st 2006 6:16PM
Neil,
I was the same way. Except, even at a young age, I vocalized it, and not the way most people would expect an 8 year old to say it back then. My grandma actually has a recording of my from back then saying, and I quote "If you're going to buy me something that I like, then do it. But don't go after one thing and not be able to find it and then buy something else as a replacement because that's insulting to me. If you can't find it before Christmas, I'd rather wait to get it then get something I don't use at all on Christmas day." I was that way with action figures and I was that way with video games. Does it make me sound spoiled? Probably. But I will admit that I was much happier a few days after Christmas when I got what I wanted than opening something Christmas morning and it being way off from what I wanted.
Darkness @ Dec 1st 2006 5:15PM
When I was a kid, I wouldn't have accepted anything but what I wanted. So if I wanted a PS3 and mom got me a 360, I'd be unhappy. No point in wasting a gift because the other thing wasn't available. Not saying all kids are like this, but I know I was. Heh, heh. Still, for those parents who want to get their kids a new system, and the kids don't know what they want, then this would be a good time for Microsoft since it's not hard to get one at this point.
MaX PL @ Dec 1st 2006 5:26PM
DS and PS2 are so bad.
Mr. Khan @ Dec 1st 2006 4:31PM
@ Pyronite, i know i may sound like a Nintendo exec saying this, but bear with me
What you said may be true for the PS3 (or may not, due to the PS strong Brand-Name), but will not be as true for the Wii, since the Wii goes out of its way to be different, if people want a Wii, i doubt they would settle for a 360 (although if I wanted a PS3 and got a 360 i'd be cool with it, since the two are due for a bloody battle, and most publishers will put titles out for both)
I also kind of think this article mandates a visit from Captain Obvious
Next on Faux News: Phil Harrison likes the PSP! More at 11...
ts8lemonade @ Dec 1st 2006 5:44PM
What's with all these "ANALYST SAYS [insert claim]" articles? It's all just some dude speculating on what could happen. Guess what I can speculate too, I predict that we will be taken over by sea otters and tables will be banished! We will forever have to eat off of our tummies!
Hank @ Dec 1st 2006 5:07PM
This could possibly work to Microsofts advanatage, but for the hardcore gamers, they will probably wait all the way to March for a PS3.
USP45 @ Dec 1st 2006 4:58PM
Most kid's now a days are spoiled rotten if the want a PS3 and get a 360 they are to throw fit's the like of which we have never seen, I wouldn't blame them. Most parents are going to wait. And as for adults they been waiting this long a few more month won't hurt. The 360 is old news last christmas, half gen people want the new, real next gen console anfd tht is the PS3.
Pete C @ Dec 1st 2006 6:18PM
I agree that people won't just buy a 360 because there is nothing else. I think what is helping the 360 right now is people are seeing the PS3 and Wii for the first time and deciding that they are not better alternatives for whatever reason. Those that really want a Wii and PS3 will wait.
Jeramy @ Dec 1st 2006 5:59PM
yeah i agree, parents are going to hear "i want a playstation" and they will only see xboxen stocked. so, of course, they'll pick it up hoping to appease little jimmy (but jimmy, this xbox is just as good as a playstation...). i agree the wii is a lot different but the parents are going to see "videogame system" for all three. of course, the kid may bitch and moan if he/she had his/her heart set upon playing zelda, so there's always the possibility of them taking it back. but more than likely the kid will be all "woah, cool"
my mom got me a dreamcast for christmas when i was in fifth grade and i thought it was the coolest thing since frozen concentrated orange juice (i still do). i never ever voiced concern about wanting one. hell, i think i probably even alluded to it being stupid (i was blindly ignorant back then). but my mom knew that i had always wanted a nintendo 64 and now that the next gen had started, she saw an opportunity.
Omahagtp @ Dec 1st 2006 5:02PM
"The 360 is old news last christmas, half gen people want the new, real next gen console anfd tht is the PS3."
I like playing worse quality multi-platform games, too.
You can really see the $200 is savings. Er.. extra $200.
Why does this look worse again?
Jayslacks @ Dec 1st 2006 9:37PM
I agree that most people who want a PS3 will not settle for a 360. However, there are people who just want a gaming system, and they will have to decide which one. And when they can't find a Ps3, and the Wii doesn't have the type of games they want, then the 360 is an obvious choice. I would love to have a PS3. It has some awesome games like Resistence and...uh...Resistence! But I think we should all just bow and say that Microsoft might win this year. Remember, when the competition is the hottest, consumers win every time.
kinshadow @ Dec 1st 2006 5:26PM
It's really about the inertia of the console. Kids get certain consoles because their friends. The 360 has been building momentum for a year and I think kids will be requesting them this Christmas, not settling for them. Any 'substistutions' will just help to build kids after christmas desires to. MS's marketing behind Live and the 360 is brilliant. To get the most of your box, you need friends. How do you get friends online? You convince your RL friends to get consoles. 360 will sell like hotcakes this season.
defunq @ Dec 2nd 2006 7:50AM
Hardcore gamers would buy a 360/Wii, not a PS3.
Anyone who has functional eyes can tell there is no graphical difference between the 360/PS3.
MaX PL @ Dec 1st 2006 5:39PM
"The 360 is old news last christmas, half gen people want the new, real next gen console anfd tht is the PS3."
yeh the PS2 was old news when Xbox came out... oh wait.
xbox 360 will be the generation winner. nintendo products will continue to sell to the exact same audiences just like the past 5 generations. the same fairies will play zelda mario and metroid prime, continually buying nearly identical games year after year because wii hardware is so limited.
the controller will be a bore to everyone after this holiday because everyone will either like it or hate it.
as for the ps3 i think the demand is there from some casuals but most wont get it due to the relatively high price. i dont think the fact that multiplatform games are worse on ps3 than xbox 360 will disuade casuals from getting a ps3 just because they know nothing except for it being new technology.
next year xbox 360 price will be down to roughly 300 dollars for a very good bundle with HDD and that coupled with Halo 3 and GTA4 both being on Xbox will make for extremely good sales.
i think wii will have the worse holiday sales next year.
AirIntake @ Dec 1st 2006 5:38PM
I asked for a Genesis for Christmas 1991 and got one. However, I would have been still very happy to have received an SNES.
And yes, I did and do like the Genesis better than the SNES. And I still have it and play it.
Aex @ Dec 1st 2006 5:42PM
@Omahagtp
"Why does this look worse again?"
Because you drink too much haterade?
I want both an Xbox360 and a Ps3. Which I'll get first I'm not sure. Leaning towards the 360, just waiting for the right deal. I think Microsofts big numbers will come more from the holiday deals the Xbox will be getting over the fact that they are sitting on shelves vs. not in stock. Only reason I'm considering picking up an Xbox this holiday is because Microcenter is offering that $100 MIR. If it wasn't for that, I'd be waiting on a price drop for both consoles.
Joe Smith @ Dec 1st 2006 5:41PM
Tried the Wii this weekend and it was realy fun, but we were bored by Day 3. I ended up back on my 360.
MS should be feeling bullish. They are in the catbird seat right now. Every move Sony makes is a Christmas present for them.
Sony should be the worried one -- Wii is going to kill PS2 sales and 360 is sitting right where PS3 needs to be.
New 360 owner. @ Dec 1st 2006 5:43PM
Kids will always want Nintendo. That's a fact. 360 and PS3 are for more grown up gamers. Parents may buy a 360 or PS3 for themselves, but the kids will always get a Nintendo. Have you seen what it does to them?? Their little heads practically explode when they find a new Nintendo under the tree on Christmas morning.
Mr. Khan @ Dec 1st 2006 5:55PM
@ Max PL, man, how much is Mr. Gates paying you, again?
I wish John Lucas was still around, that laddie would come up with a ready, non-insulting retort, i myself will restrain myself in order to retain my valor...
Orangecoke @ Dec 1st 2006 6:57PM
I agree with Max PL. The only reason to not buy a 360 and wait (forever...and ever...) for a PS3 is blind brand loyalty. The 360 is an awesome gaming experience and readily available for less money TODAY.
Joseph @ Dec 3rd 2006 8:35AM
360 is a great option because it has arguably the best graphics and game line up available now and in the future. It is less expensive and does not require an investment in next generation hd/blue ray dvd. I bought it last year and my kids love it and begged me not to wait for the PS3. Games like Viva Pinata, Halo 3, Gears of War, and such really kept me an xbox customer.