Now that the PS3 has been out on the market for a while, analysts can get a firm grasp of exactly what the shortages are doing to, both hardware and software, the various alternatives. The actual results are surprising to most of us "logical" thinkers.
According to analyst groups, the biggest winner in the PS3 shortages is actually Sony. The displaced PS3 money is going to purchase PS2 software. Few are opting for an Xbox 360 as an alternative to not getting a PS3, though analysts believe the push will be enough to help Microsoft hit the 10 million goal. The biggest loser is EA, which focused too much effort on the PS3 and overextended themselves. Activision and THQ are in good positions as they focused more on the Xbox 360 and PS2.
There seems to be some method behind the PS3 madness at Sony. While they are losing potential PS3 customers, either to the Xbox 360 -- the Wii is not even considered an alternative and stands by itself -- or just won't buy it at all, the money is getting filtered into the PS2 business. However, these short term gains are going to kill third party relationships as it is expected that few, if any, PS3 games will reach profitability before 2007 is over and done with. If developers chose to focus on the established Xbox 360 while waiting for PS3 shipments to rise, they may be waiting forever; the PS3 won't continue to sell without the games to go along with it.