Analyst: Publishers not supporting Wii to get left behind
In a interview with CNBC today, analyst Evan Wilson declares Wii the early next-gen console victor. But the report appears more concerned with the possible implications for publisher stocks rather than just Nintendo's.Wilson believes game makers who have formed early partnerships with Nintendo via Wii can look forward to a banner year, one he says will be the fastest growing in a long time. He predicts THQ and Activision as big winners for their early commitment to the motion-sensing platform with no mention of Ubisoft.
So what about EA, the world's largest games publisher with 25% of the market? The analyst thinks the company will get left behind in 2007 for not scheduling more upcoming Wii games and because their hardcore games don't appeal as much to Wii's desired non-gamer audience. Also, after calling the PS3 a "disappointment" to an investor audience, he's wary on both EA and Take 2 stock for their strong support of the PS3. Not only is Sony getting some bad press now, so are any publishers aligned with its console, at least from one analyst.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Kevin @ Dec 28th 2006 12:10PM
Gotta love "analysts" and their predictions. Contrary to populary belief, the Sony ship is not sinking. Sure they've had some problems with the U.S. launch, but let's not forget that Japan loves the PS3, and it's still going to launch in Europe.
Oh, and I'm the proud owner of an Xbox 360, so hold your fanboy comments.
BMWM3P @ Dec 28th 2006 12:13PM
Do people actually get paid for this mindless blabber?
Paul @ Dec 28th 2006 12:17PM
You guys are totally missing the point - this guy is a STOCK MARKET analyst. Sony's stock price has taken a beating - their loan rating is down... they are not in good shape right now as an investment.
The PS3 could sell every console they make the second it hits shelfs for the 5 years and at best they would be back to where they started. In terms of the stock market the ps3 could dominate in the console war but Sony ALREADY has lost.
Pip @ Dec 28th 2006 12:19PM
It has yet to be seen if the PS3 will really float in Japan. Thinking it will be a solid contender like the PS2 is being just as ignorant as Sony is with their products. Pretty much everyone thought the PSP would dethrone the DS, and it got spanked pretty hard. The Wii may end up doing the exact same thing.
I just wish they'd buy some damn 360s already. The system is too good to be ignored that much over there. Microsoft has a bad reputation to them, but they need to look past it for once and see it as an actual viable product.
Hirsbrunner @ Dec 28th 2006 12:24PM
@4. Maybe if the 360 had something besides sports, racing, and freakin' FPSs it might be more popular. There are a LOT of us who don't care for any of those, regardless of the quality.
And no, Viva Pincrappy doesn't count.
Nicolas Redfern @ Dec 28th 2006 12:33PM
I certainly wouldn't call the majority of EA's games hardcore. Most of them are license based, sold on whatever they're based on's name
DiahrreaMan @ Dec 28th 2006 12:34PM
@5 It's true, in my mind, when I think of the xbox brand, the only game that comes to mind is halo and more halo. Does it have platformers?
mandarin @ Dec 28th 2006 12:36PM
EA? What's that?
No one really gives a crap about EA's games anymore. Its a sinking ship.
The Kid @ Dec 28th 2006 12:38PM
Sony isn't getting spanked with their PSP. That's a flat out lie.
Sony has 24,000,000 units sold worldwide
Nintendo DS has 27,000,000 units worldwide.
Nintendo has been in the hardware business long before Sony and has had a very big headstart and more experience selling portables yet Sony who is new to the portable videogames market has half the market share and sells for much more than the DS.
That's far from a hard spanking; it's actually right up in Nintendo's face Pwning half of it's market!!!!
The xbox 360 will never outsell any console in Japan let alone Sony or Nintendo.
The media needs to Get it's facts str8 and stop the biased reporting.
Sony has 111,000,000 PS2's and 24 million PSP's along with close to a million PS3's for developers not to worry.
Why dont' they report the numbers of videogames that came out for the PS2 and the Xbox 360 game sales? How many millions did Madden sell on the PS2 and the 360?
Whose bullshyting the public now?
Falafelkid @ Dec 28th 2006 12:38PM
Sony Corp. stock has lost around 20% of its value this year. And a large part of that loss can be attributed directly to the production problems with the PS3. I would not discount the analyst´s opinion so easily.
Brian @ Dec 28th 2006 12:39PM
@6
"And no, Viva Pincrappy doesn't count."
Ha! That's funny. He took the name of the game "Viva Pinata" and he replaced part of the name with crappy. Do you get it? It uses the title of the game to imply that the game is no good? That's comedy gold, folks, and you are getting it for free.
You can do it with other games, too...like...
Gears of Crap.
Crapstation 3
Wii Craps
It's endless fun.
"Maybe if the 360 had something besides sports, racing, and freakin' FPSs it might be more popular."
[Insert list of non-sports, racing and FPSs here as rebuttal. Yawn.]
DojoRacoon @ Dec 28th 2006 12:39PM
I wish I could be paid to be a professional guesser. But seriously this seems to be in line with a lot of the anecdotal evidence I've been seeing around the web. I know I personally could have scored a PS3 a couple of times by chance but If I didn't know the manager at my EB games I probably would never have scored a Wii (let alone the 3 I managed to get for myself and my family). My point is I'm seeing little evidence to doubt this guys claim. Plus the PS3 is not near as big in Japan right now as the Wii. My only concern with the Wii right now is the impending games drought hopefully the Virtual Console will be enough to hold people over, so far it looks good enough for me personally.
OGHowie @ Dec 28th 2006 12:41PM
Wow, in 2 months you know the winner of the next generation? I'm still waiting for people to come down the Wii high everyone is on. Other than first party games I see nothing on the Wii that even has me remotely excited.
Hopefully, the PS3 will actually have some good titles by the end of next year but they will probably have to do something with its price.
White Rose Duelist @ Dec 28th 2006 12:42PM
Anyone who still doesn't understand the difference between shipped and sold loses. That means you, The Kid.
Silver @ Dec 28th 2006 12:42PM
"he's weary on both EA and Take 2 stock for their strong support of the PS3"
I think you mean "wary."
And didn't EA just set up a Wii-only development studio in Salt Lake City? Yes, I believe they did.
serb @ Dec 28th 2006 12:43PM
@7 pysconaughts and thats all i can think of
thats ms prob they think if they make one game for ea genre there gonna dominate........
Ryan @ Dec 28th 2006 12:44PM
Hirsbrunner
Ok... so how about:
Oblivion
Blue Dragon
Dead Rising
Gears of War (unless 3rd and first are the same in your mind)
Battle for Middle Earth
Marvel Ultimate Alliance
Lost Planet (again 3rd person)
Saints Row
Splinter Cell (yeah I guess it could be a shooter)
DOA4
Ninety Nine Nights
Enchanted Arms
etc
etc
The 360 doesn't just have FPS, Sports, and Racing. The Japanese are extremely loyal to their country's companies to the point of absurdity. The PS3 is an overpriced Xbox360 with a trojan horse bluray player. But hey Sony is just honoring tradition of bending over their blindly loyal customers and going to town.
And don't comment on lack of genres on the 360 then say that Viva Pinata doesn't count. That makes no sense. Viva pinata is quite a fun little game that I would think would fit perfectly into the weird Japanese game markets... but it didn't and will never be given a chance because it was made by an American company.
Paul @ Dec 28th 2006 12:47PM
wow you people really dont understand what this guy's job is or a thing he is TRULY saying or WHO he is really saying it to.
BklynKid @ Dec 28th 2006 12:47PM
#11, well played.
The Kid @ Dec 28th 2006 12:47PM
Nick #17
Wrong!
DS 27,000,000
PSP 24,000,000
Avinash_Tyagi @ Dec 28th 2006 12:48PM
"but let's not forget that Japan loves the PS3, and it's still going to launch in Europe."
Really? Then why is Nintendo dominating the Japanese charts?
Paul @ Dec 28th 2006 12:50PM
AMEN FALAFELKID
joemama @ Dec 28th 2006 12:52PM
*****
No one's listening Blake. But you just go ahead and keep trying. Whenever you can find an analyst that agrees with your hopes and dreams, you just go ahead and post it, mkay?
*****
Zertoss @ Dec 28th 2006 12:53PM
Blue Dragon really picked up the 360 sales in Japan. The bundles all sold out pretty fast. I guess all it takes is an RPG with Akira Toriyama's artwork to get good sales in Japan. ;)
Also, Viva Pinata was made by Rare, a British company, not American.
serb @ Dec 28th 2006 12:54PM
@24 if u show some proof of that i will cut my left testicle rite off
RyanLN @ Dec 28th 2006 12:56PM
I'd like to see where #9 got his figures with regard to the number of PSP units sold. Just because I say Sony sold five trillion PS2s doesn't necessarily make it true. At any rate... I have a really, really hard time believing that the fortunes of the video game industry at this point in time will absolutely rise and fall with Nintendo. While the big N has hit the motherlode of late, like a streaky NBA shooter they have proven time and time again that they can start clangin' shots off of the rim at any given moment. If I'm a publisher, do I do an Oh Geez panic and lie prostrate in front of NOA with a note taped to my chest about homeless waifs and whatnot? No... but I do read the tea leaves and figure that a console this hot might actually sustain a userbase that will lead to some real dollars if I craft good product for it. Common sense will rule the day and all will be well.
Our analyst friend is just doing what any talking head on t.v. does- extrapolate ridiculous fantasyland conclusions based on extremely young and insufficient data so people will listen to him. Bah, I say. He should have soured on bloated old EA not because of lack of Wii support but because the lack of competition is beginning to turn their games into un-fun time wasters. Ahh, entropy.
MosquitoControl @ Dec 28th 2006 12:57PM
Thank you, Paul.
These kids are convinced the world revolves around video games.
It doesn't. It revolves around money.
This guy doesn't care about video games, he cares about the money it brings in and what that means to you and me. He doesn't care if the PS3 is a better system, he cares how many of them will be out in the wild, in the short term, in order to bring in money.
FlashMasta @ Dec 28th 2006 12:57PM
http://www.vgcharts.org/
That's where the Nick is getting his numbers I suppose...so where is The Kid getting his? I'm more inclined to believe the 35m vs 19m numbers myself.
Avinash_Tyagi @ Dec 28th 2006 12:57PM
#21, do you understand the difference between shipped and sold? Sony only gives shipped numbers, not sold numbers, sold numbers are like 17 million
Field Anony-mouse @ Dec 28th 2006 12:57PM
"but let's not forget that Japan loves the PS3, and it's still going to launch in Europe."
Let's also not forget that Japan is already (and were the first to) seeing used PS3s appearing in stores having been sold back, and many people (developers included) are pissed off about the absurd delays in the EU launch.
Ironhide Delta @ Dec 28th 2006 12:58PM
Monthly sales of both DS and PSP
DS Lite 319,708 for a total of: 6,761,521
PSP 48,962 for a total of: 1,641,910
Hmm, "The Kid", according to these figures which represent the latest Japanese numbers, seems as though PSP is indeed taking the proverbial spanking. Not sure where you get your numbers from, but I get mine from sources like The Magic Box that seem to post reliable infor regarding overall videogame markets in addition to a Japanese-centric view.
Usedtabe @ Dec 28th 2006 12:59PM
Hey, don't feed the trolls. "The Kid" is Dave Mendez, who I guess was banned for being a troll as he now has a new name.
And Analysts no longer have any clout with me when it comes to video games. They almost always seem wrong in the end(though I could agree with this one at the moment)
Ryan @ Dec 28th 2006 12:59PM
Rare is owned by Microsoft which is American. But in the long run it doesn't matter as it was not made by a Japanese company.
I get a very us (Japan) and them (anyone else) feel about the common Japanese gamer.
Hirsbrunner @ Dec 28th 2006 1:02PM
Ryan
I will comment on anything I like. And it doesn't count because the "game" is really bad. It's a freakin' tie-in to a really bad "cartoon" for Christ's sake. Also, a shooter is shooter, regardless of the perspective. And the majority of the games you listed are hmm...not my idea of fun.
Brian and BklynKid
It's nice to see people appreciating my talent for wordplay. :-)
Scooby Doo @ Dec 28th 2006 1:04PM
Man, the news for Nintendo just gets better every day. Regardless of which side of the fence you're on, you have to admit they are developing into the come-back kid of the console manufacturers, if you like those kind of stories. It's important to point out that Mr. Wilson's audience is investors, not gamers, and that he is trying to touch upon the video games industry, not necessarily computer software(MSFT) or hardware (SNE) makers.
From a business point-of-view, he doesn't sound all that off his rocker. And to make such a prediction on CNBC says that he is confident in his predictions. The Wii is a much cheaper platform to develop for and therefore publishers will need to sell less copies of a game to produce a profit. Add the holiday craze it has generated in and it would be easy to expect that the early supporters can ride the revenue wave with them. In fact, it's even started generating buzz again about a merger between Apple and Nintendo. (Don't expect it though.)
People are starting to think that the Wii will be to home consoles, what the IPod is to digital media players. In fact, I would argue that while going HD has helped the PS3 and 360 support their consumer-base, it actually hurt the publishers who have a much higher risk for developing a game on either platform.
In the end, I seriously doubt any of us have much to worry that our personal gaming experience will change. I actually expect all three to do well. However when it comes to new games, new IP's, and new genre's, Nintendo is definitely in the best position this time around to bring them to us. As an avid gamer, I can't wait.
serb @ Dec 28th 2006 1:05PM
its a shame wen u fanboys stoop to racism as a reason y the 360 isnt selling well in japan
Yoshi Likes Boys @ Dec 28th 2006 1:06PM
The problem with the XBox library is a circular one. I actually admire what Microsoft is trying to do to diversify their library by buying Rare and shoveling money down Mistwalker's gullet. However, it's not enough. Viva looks to be a fun game, and Blue Dragon looks to be pretty decent too, but instead of diversifying their user base, which is what MS wants, with only a few token "diverse" games, those games will probably fail in front of an American install base that frankly has no interest in those sorts of games.
Any way you slice it, the 360 DOES have a diversity problem in its library. Microsoft wouldn't be spending this kind of money to try and diversify if it didn't. The problem isn't that Microsoft is an American company, it's that the XBox brand was built with an American developer and user base. At this point, if MS wants honest-to-god Japanese development (besides Capcom's sometimes great/sometimes not "dumb americans" division), they're going to have to prove to Japanese developers and publishers that the system is viable in Japan, and for XBox, which didn't worry about Japanese development at the beginning of its original run and is feeling the pain now, that's very much an uphill battle.
shouryuuken @ Dec 28th 2006 1:07PM
dead rising, oblivion, and lost planet are 3 of the best sports games to come out in years. oh and i cant wait for racing games like blue dragon, virtua fighter 5, and guitar hero II.
Jonathan @ Dec 28th 2006 1:10PM
Hey "The Kid" I think your numbers are off there. You _do_ understand that there is a DS _and_ a DS Lite right? I think you're only counting the sales of the DS Phat..
Chris @ Dec 28th 2006 1:16PM
I had a 360 for the first year. when it wasn't braking down I had fun playing the same shoot em up game over and over with a new skin from time to time. the fact is for every nonshooter/sports game they put out there was 3 shoot em up and sports game to follow.
I live in Ohio and the Ps3 is geting laughed at. the day i went to get a Wii for my sisters kid there was a news report that Bestbuy would have 37 Ps3 the next morning. My brother and I thought we should leave early to beat the Ps3 rush and get the Wii. We got to Bestbuy at around 12am. there where 15 people in line and not a one was there for the Ps3. At around 5am a manager came out and started asking if anyone was here for the ps3. no one answered. in stead people started yelling out. "we don't want your $600 360. give us the Wii!"
Turned out that the news report was wrong they had no Ps3 at all. but it did not matter no one wanted one anyway.
Ps I am posting this on my Wii.
Ryan @ Dec 28th 2006 1:16PM
Hirsbrunner
So if it has a gun its a shooter?
Why do you play games, you don't think any of the games in that list sound fun? What do you do with your flashy PS3? Is it your replacement girlfriend? Its warm and has some holes just about your size?
Please please please enlighten me on what you consider to be a fun game? Because it seems like you must buy a console to play an individual game.
On a side note I didn't know that Viva Pinata was a cartoon, too bad it sucks as you say or Im sure the game would be selling better to demographic the cartoon is aimed at (I'm assuming children).
tituspullo @ Dec 28th 2006 1:16PM
the worst thing about the PS line of products are the fanboys. there a few steps from straping explosives to there back and running into the local gamestop. the sony fanboys savored every bit of bad press about the 360 this time of yesr but when the shoes on the other foot they cry foul, "oh the media is biased". the fact the PS3 has been in trouble since they annouced the pirce tag and it's been down hill since then. what was nice about the ps2 is the affordabilty. now for the money alot of people are saying why not a 360 and a wii. people want the most for there money. think about it $600 bucks for a game system that's alot more then the average person wants to spend. the hardcore games wil do it but most people buy consoles for there kids or play just for fun.
Duscrom @ Dec 28th 2006 1:20PM
Well, this Analyst does seem to forget the 360 exsists...
New 360 Owner @ Dec 28th 2006 1:22PM
I find it funny how this guy goes on to accuse EA of heavily supporting Sony to the near exclusion of the Wii, when just this past summer EA announced they will be devoting 40% of their resources to 360, 40% to Wii and only 20% to PS3.
cybereality @ Dec 28th 2006 1:23PM
I'm I the only one that acually likes shooters and racers? What the hell kinda games do you people like?
Liquid @ Dec 28th 2006 1:24PM
@Hirsbrunner
"It's a freakin' tie-in to a really bad "cartoon" for Christ's sake."
This has been discussed before. The cartoon is a spin-off of the game. Not the other way around. Just like alot of classic cartoons where spin-offs of action figures or comic book characters. The cartoons are more or less advertisements for the products.
Also, that really bad game did pretty well with the critics http://www.metacritic.com/games/platforms/xbox360/vivapinata
Chris @ Dec 28th 2006 1:28PM
I like shooter games. But I have a pc for that. I buy a console for games that mostly don't come to the pc. Almost all shooters will hit the pc sooner or later.
Calviin @ Dec 28th 2006 1:34PM
Well, I like Animal Crossing, Guitar Hero, Final Fantasy XII, Zelda, Naruto Gekitou Ninja Taisen 4, Elebits, Katamari, & Diablo II.
None of those have guns though, except maybe Final Fantasy XII, but I doubt a majority of people would call it a shooter...
Elebits has a first person perspective and the laser you use I think is from a gun, but no killing is done. Just capturing.
Mr. Khan @ Dec 28th 2006 1:35PM
1. I thought the 3 consoles being released would STOP these off-the-wall Analyst comments, instead they only seem to have increased
2. Cyberreality (#46), a good percentage of us are otaku/fantasy/scifi nerds, so if it ain't Japanese or Fantastic (like LoTR or KOTOR) we won't buy it (I myself am a developer/publisher fanboy, Nintendo, SEGA, LucasArts, Hudson, and Square Enix)
3. He is correct from a financial standpoint, but if it was about being financially viable, Microsoft would've been out of this market a long time ago
He must take into account the revenue generated by the companies other businesses
Nintendo: Hanafuda Cards and Japanese Toys
Sony: Electronics and their Multimedia Empire
Microsoft: Operating Systems and Personal Music Players
The Kid @ Dec 28th 2006 1:36PM
Even with combined sales of the DS phat (which I don't believe is sold any longer new at any retailer)and DS Lite Sonys 24,000,000 units sold is nothing to sneeze at; this is a brand new device and in spite of that they are holding their own with Nintendo.
PS; the PSP has outsold the Xbox 1 in it's entire lifespan.
Also, the PSP has outsold the xbox 360 in a year and to date!
Also, the Sony PS3 has outsold the PS3 in Japan and has steadily sold out here in the USA.
Someone else is getting spanked and no one wants to admit it.