Analyst: PS3 dragging down Sony
Add one more name to the media dog pile that has developed around Sony since the company's launch of the PS3. RealMoney's Michael Comeau recently told readers that the slow start for the system was "only one of many reasons to avoid shares of the consumer-electronics conglomerate, but it's certainly the most important."
Comeau cited Sony's unflagging support for Blu-ray as the PS3's Achilles heel, causing higher costs and production delays "with no discernible improvement in game quality." Ouch! A harsh assessment, and one Kaz Hirai would no doubt disagree with. Comeau also felt that the loss of previous Sony exclusives like Grand Theft Auto and Virtua Fighter and the early hype surrounding the Nintendo Wii will hurt Sony's gaming market share.
Why is that important to the investors that Comeau writes for? Well, while gaming only provides 10 percent of Sony's revenue, it accounts for over 60 percent of their profits, leading Comeau to predict a declining video game market share for Sony will dramatically drag down profits for the entire company. What's more, increased competition in other consumer electronics like high-definition TVs lead Comeau to say "it is nearly impossible for me to come up with a bullish case for Sony." Double ouch!
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Ron @ Dec 29th 2006 4:45PM
Yeah, Sony really messed up big time with the PS3...
CJC @ Dec 29th 2006 4:50PM
In other news: Analysts find candy is delicious and murder is still illegal.
pandlcg @ Dec 29th 2006 4:53PM
Sometimes analysts go overboard with their predictions. Anyone remember analysts calling for Nintendo to not make a console and just develop software? it was only 18 months ago; now their all singing Nintendo's praise.
I hope a lot of people listen to this guy an unload the stock. Stock often gets sold more than it should and you can make a lot of money even when a company is having a rough year.
bm @ Dec 29th 2006 5:08PM
"Anyone remember analysts calling for Nintendo to not make a console and just develop software?"
Umm nope, can't say I remember. I think that was only the fanboys who knew absolutely shit about shit.
Beaudry @ Dec 29th 2006 5:13PM
Crickets from the Sony fanboys? but..but..but... the Wii is just a gimicki gamecube! haha, burned you suckers! :)
I'll step up then. The analysts are making predictions about the future of the company based on less than 2 months of sales... 2 months of crippling product shortages, to boot. The PS3 launch has been a rough go, but it is in about the same spot as the 360 was a year ago. We need to give this a little time to play out.
Larb @ Dec 29th 2006 5:20PM
lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
Jarrett @ Dec 29th 2006 5:21PM
@5
Beg to differ.....stocks are about profit margin. Investors these days flinch if one oil pipeline goes offline. If an anaylst is citing facts about the performance of a company...believe me he has the attention of investors as well as Board Members. And this not the only thing Sony is hurting in....LCD tv's, VAIO, MP3 battle, these are things investors and consumers expect Sony to be leading in...and yet they aren't. Why??? Who knows....but a nervous investor knows not to invest in a company that is steadly losing market share in every aspect of it's electronics division.
Jeff @ Dec 29th 2006 5:21PM
It's funny how analysts are geniuses when you agree with them and complete idiots when you don't.
Remember the 51% rule.
Henry @ Dec 29th 2006 5:22PM
#5
Analysts are not always right. In this case he is telling us not to buy Sony shares. He is one of many saying that Sony is in trouble and PS3 is not going to be profitable.
Regardless of he is right or wrong he is looking way past current problems and sales. He seems to be more concerned about the price and exclusives.
Personally I think he is right. Sony is in for a lot of pain next year.
Pip @ Dec 29th 2006 5:24PM
The real problem is that Sony wont ever replicate the PS2 sales again. This is what is worrying analysts. The PS3 may sell decently, but not enough to bring in huge profits. The price will keep it a niche console. Unless somehow 80 million people somehow find away to drop $600 on a console, they wont sell as many. Analysts and investors are looking for a BETTER SELLING product, and this is why you are seeing bad press. They want to see the PS3 sell 150 million units this time. MORE, not less. If they can't at least MATCH the PS2, you will hear nothing but doom and gloom from analysts.
miguel @ Dec 29th 2006 5:29PM
Analysts predict that the country of Angola will be the deciding factor in the console wars.. apparently the ps3 is going to kick ass there.
Caffeinate @ Dec 29th 2006 5:33PM
This is nowhere near as ridiculous as it may sound. Any company would be in trouble if the division that is responsible for more than half their profits was going to potentially tank. I agree that it's WAAAAAAAY too early to be making those kinds of decisions, but you have to admit that consumer confidence/patience with/in Sony is at an all-time low.
This would be equivalent to Microsoft's Office division not turning a profit; suddenly they can't afford to hemorrhage money in order to get into people's living rooms (see: Xbox).
Maylon @ Dec 29th 2006 5:35PM
I was just wondering, if the Wii were to totally dominate, would devs make games for the Wii first and then port to the other 2 platforms?
Tamago @ Dec 29th 2006 5:38PM
Please god, enough with the analysts. They're just as annoying as fanboys.
Maylon @ Dec 29th 2006 5:39PM
Because I am not sure that would be a good thing. Graphics are still somewhat important.
icelandman @ Dec 29th 2006 5:41PM
To #11, I believe it is the PS3 that has made Somalia move troops in to Ethiopia as well, this happened right after they used it to guide cruise missiles...
But seriously, the huge factor here is not stock performance (unless you currently own Sony stock, in which case, tough luck), it is all about consumer confidence. Where the Wii has built positive buzz from the start with a few tumults of negativity, the PS3 has been hounded, perhaps unfairly, with only a few positive nuggets. And Johnny Hardcore and little Timmy both want a system that is successful and looks like it will be successful. I won't rag on the price or the specs, just its popular image.
Like it or not, Sony is the company we Love to Hate right now. What we have to wait for is the top brass making big moves to restore that consumer confidence and soon.
~PEACE
-Icelandman
Maylon @ Dec 29th 2006 5:45PM
One more time, can anyone describe what a Wii dominated game market would be like? Just curious because its really starting to look like we might be headed there.
Beaudry @ Dec 29th 2006 5:46PM
But....but....the Wii rhymes with pee and it has bad graphics!!!
#7 and #9, I actually agree with both of you. I just thought the Sony fanboys needed a little help. It's one thing when game geeks say a console is a failure, it's a completely different thing when professional stock analysts say your console is bad.
Tamago @ Dec 29th 2006 5:49PM
I cannot wait till all 3 consoles get some titles that sell consoles. Then everyone will be off playing their game instead of circle jerking each other in one big fanboy orgy.
Once each cosnole gets some steam things will liven up and people will *gasp* talk about games rather then crying and complaining on the forums about which consoles fanboys e-peen is bigger.
Ben @ Dec 29th 2006 5:58PM
Maylon, a Wii dominated market would be the videogame equivalent of reality tv. Just imagine when developers start talking about how it is so much more profitable to create simple games for the masses rather than spend the time and budget to create games on a grand scale. Nintendo would of course still give us Zelda, Metroid etc. but if the Wii actually did dominate the market to the point where it forced Sony and Microsoft out, I would be very worried.
If casual games became the new mainstream, would we see games like Mass Effect, Bioshock or even God of War being created on the highly profitable Wii type game systems? Why bother when you can create Wii Fly Fishing or Let's Swat Flies.
Personally, I am much more comfortable with the Wii selling well but not dominating the market. I had no problem with the current state of videogames and I don't see one red cent from profits earned by Nintendo, Micro soft or Sony. I hope to still be able to enjoy a wide variety of games on each system, not just games that aunt Sally and Uncle Goober might buy.
That's just me though.
Beaudry @ Dec 29th 2006 5:58PM
A Wii dominated market would be like a DS dominated handheld market.
Darkness @ Dec 29th 2006 6:07PM
Not sure what a Wii dominated market would be like, but I have concerns like Ben mentioned. Don't get me wrong, I totally dig the Wii and between Zelda and FFXII, I've been having a great time. The only thing I'm worried about is the loss of long RPGs and FPS. If these short "Brain Training" games or quirky games like "Cooking Mama" take over, then will developers opt to go for the quick cash small game market and leave out Action RPGs or adventure games in general? Will those kinds of games only go to the PS3 or 360?
I'm not saying that there shouldn't be quick games or even games like "Cooking Mama" (thinking about picking this up myself), but I hope developers realize that those of us who own a Wii want other types of games to play. This is why I'll support Suda51 and "No More Heroes". Companies have to understand that those kinds of games are wanted as well on the Wii.
MoonfirePewPEwPEw @ Dec 29th 2006 6:08PM
I want the old Nintendo vs Sega war back. Not only was it a clean fight (for the most part), people didn't rave like fanboys against eachother, and had intelligent discussions. The best part was it was about playing the games, not how many units X game sold or how many consoles Y system shipped.
Anonymouse Rep @ Dec 29th 2006 6:21PM
Tell you all what...
We all know that Best Buy will be having the PS3 in their ad this Sunday, and apparently touting that they will have a minimum of 25 units per store.
How about we do this? Late afternoon on Sunday, everyone go to their local Best Buy, ask the sales rep IN the electronics department (NOT the sales rep in the appliances) how many PS3 consoles they had at the start of the day, and then how many they have in inventory right now. Physically COUNT the units on the sales floor.
IF there are more than 5 units per store at the end of the day, then this launch is a failure for Sony and we all agree with it. If there are only 1 or 2 units per store, then Sony has a chance. If there are NO PS3 units left in any store - so that the PS3 matches the performance from the launch of the Xbox 360 - the PS3 will reign supreme.
And if there are multiple legitimate reports of 10 or more PS3 units remaining in stores at the end of the day, Sony as a corporation is probably toast.
SuicideNinja @ Dec 29th 2006 6:22PM
Sony isn't a high-end brand anymore. They make a few solid products (Cams and Bravias), but for the most part they produce junk. This shouldn't be surprising.
I mean, aren't you ready for an "awesome" Sony Xplod(ing) amplifier and audio deck for your car? Or maybe a DVD player that's noisy or won't play burned home videos or VCD's? How about a PC that is so proprietary it's unusable and/or not upgradeable? Or maybe an (un)amazing "High Definition" video encoded in MPEG2?
Nah. Stick with Playstations (well, maybe not the PS2 so much).
Juan Tan @ Dec 29th 2006 6:40PM
To Anonymouse Rep
I went to Best Buy yesterday to buy NFS:Carbon and they had 4 PS3s in the case [not sure if 60s or 20s].
So does this mean they're toast?
Maylon @ Dec 29th 2006 6:48PM
Thanks, Ben. I thought it would be different to actually ask for an opinion than give one. The reason I asked is exactly what you said, that the games we like would be effectively gone, replaced by casual games. All this talk of Sony going under has me worried.
socrates @ Dec 29th 2006 7:06PM
What worries me greatly is that there needs to be a strong counter-balance to Nintendo, whether it be the 360, PS3, or PC gaming. Someone's gotta expand and push the market for games that are deep, RPG-like, etc. Unfortunately, all 3 of those areas are weak right now. Even the lack of interest in the PS3 hasn't seen a jump in 360 sales - and the 360 alone isn't going to get the best JRPGs and the like due to it being a non-issue in Japan.
To me this looks like a console generation I'm going to skip entirely. Unless things change, I could really stick with PC gaming and nothing else. If they hadn't have cut the Wii off at the knees in terms of sound, graphics, and techical power, then I wouldn't mind Nintendo dominance at all - it could go back to the SNES days. But we're all swimming in shallow pools nowadays, and the other consoles have yet to promise a good enough alternative.
GangWAY @ Dec 29th 2006 7:35PM
NEWS FLASH, I am a BIG Nintendo fan. I have the every system, even the famicom and disk system. I just got the Wii and am disapointed. The motion system isnt like you expect it to be. I wanted it to be so much better. Wii sports, i couldnt get into. So I bought Zelda. Zelda grown on me a little, but when I say it plays like the other Zeldas, it feels like the same game, not the sequel. And my second controller broke, or it came broke.Three buttons dont work. The 360 wirless works so much better. Im going to try it somemore, I hope the games get better. Oh, I know a few people that are holding off for the PS3, so we will see.
Ninja 20XX @ Dec 29th 2006 7:40PM
It would be nice if the gaming industry took the past year and the problems of the three console launches to heart.
It seems that half of Sony's poor PR so far could've been overcome by having more consoles and better launch titles. Both MS and Nintendo also came up short on the supply and demand chain - three huge multinational corporations can't sit down and say, "okay, were launching on Day Y and we're going to need at least X million units to satisfy initial demand, and get them shipped to various points around the globe for distribution, we're going to have to start making these things Z months ahead of time."
Video games seem to be the only industry where having frustrated customers who want to spend money but can't are considered a 'good' thing. 'Global shortages' sounds good in a press release but why give consumers a chance to second-guess their decision to buy your product?
And maybe allow developers a little more time with launch games - meaning getting them the proper tools and software well ahead of time so that consumers have a reason to want to buy these machines outside of the desire to be the first one on the block to have the hardware when the quality software is six or eight months after launch.
Sometimes it's amazing that the gaming industry has become what is has with such poor business strategies applied to it.
NeverSage @ Dec 29th 2006 8:11PM
I am shocked and very happy that no one claimed that Joystiq hates sony again. I think the analysts are right, at least where the United States is concerned. And I'm glad, SO glad. I wanted the PS3 to sell poorly, not because I hate sony or the system itself, but because it would set a precident saying "we will pay upwards of $600 for a video game system." This would be bad for everyone in the coming generations of gaming consoles.
Kenny @ Dec 29th 2006 8:20PM
I got a Wii for Christmas, and I have to say, fantastic.
Although, right now I'm hankering for a more classical video game experience, which is why I'm saving up for a 360. Currently, the ps3 is not on my radar. Its all about the games, and currently there is maybe one (Resistance) that is even worth buying. A lack of exclusives is changing my mind too. I can't help but get the feeling some developers are a little scared to put too much time and money into ps3 games. If they can't put out consoles, then games can't be bought.
Developers must ask themselves how many ps3 consoles are sold, and predict what percent of the people would buy the game for that console.
Ah well, Wii and 360 for me.
ss @ Dec 29th 2006 8:39PM
"13. I was just wondering, if the Wii were to totally dominate, would devs make games for the Wii first and then port to the other 2 platforms?"
Ha ha! Made me spill my drink out my nose.
Evan @ Dec 29th 2006 9:22PM
@20 "If casual games became the new mainstream,"
Newsflash - casual games ARE the mainstream. The number of Bejeweled and Sudoku players dwarf the number of FPS players on the PC. Brain Age overwhelmingly outsold GTA: Liberty City Stories on handheld systems. Live with it.
@14 "Please god, enough with the analysts. They're just as annoying as fanboys."
Do the analysts scream "ZOMG teh PS3 sux0rs!!!!!"? I didn't think so. The analysts are not pushing a biased opinion about which console is the best, they are warning investors about Sony's financial outlook.
Anonymouse Rep @ Dec 29th 2006 11:17PM
@Juan Tan -
No - read my whole post. While they may have had 4 on the floor right now, they have at LEAST 25 in the back room for their Sunday ad, and many stores should have between 40 to 60 units.
So let's wait and see what happens AFTER the Sunday ad hits. THEN we can make a call on toast or not.
And before all the Sony fanboys scream at me - I mean you, BMW - you have to admit that what I am saying is fair. We all know that if they had 25 Wii per store that they would sell out of them. Last year during the 360 launch they sold of them as well. Now is the time for the PS3 to put up or shut up - show that you can sell out the day the ad hits.
JJ @ Dec 29th 2006 11:24PM
But anonymouse, as far as i remember when the 360 launched (got mine launch day) after launch, there was basically only 1 shipment between xmas and then there were virtually NO consoles for sale for weeks on end.
Now this may not have been everywhere, but where i lived, after the initial shipments, you could not find a 360 anywhere save Ebay. Whereas with the PS3 this year, they have trickled them out to stores more steadily, i would hazard to say in my area, even more steadily than the Wii.
Even the Gamestop i used to work for has received and sold more PS3's than Wii's (not MUCH more mind you, but they sell out of all their shipments of either console within a few hours of receiving and letting people know about it) Granted the Wii sales faster, its half the price and 250 is easier to come with on the spot than 500-600.
I mean in the last month alone the PS3 has sold 25 systems compared to Wii's 23, and 360s 15 but even those numbers dont touch PS2's 43 sales and DS's 39.
I think despite the bad name the PS3 gets, it sells pretty much what it can ship, the same with the WII although the Wii is a bit easier to produce than the PS3 (and i still have problems finding one oddly).
But either way, I think this is something MS should be very worried about, i mean if both of those systems managed to sell more than a million (We all know the Wii did and if PS3's numbers hold up like in Japan it should as well) the 360 is gonna have a lot of competition
But thats a good thing.
nick @ Dec 30th 2006 12:10AM
If you look at Sony's financials, it's not a rosey picture. They have a huge amount of debt. Their profit ratio is low. They've had some very public problems, which have hurt them (laptop batteries, rootkit, early word that PS3 sales are cooling already). They've borrowed a lot of money this year. They've shut down some divisions. Not all divisions are pulling their weight. Increased competition may affect their few profitable areas. And Sony is slow to react to the market. They made some huge gambles this year with both the PS3 and blu-ray.
The saving grace for Sony, as it has always been, is the PS2. Problem with the PS2, it won't be around forever.
Sony is betting the company on the future success of the PS3 and blu-ray. If one or both fail, it can hurt Sony financially.
benzitor @ Dec 30th 2006 12:18AM
For my part, i think a wii domination would affect principally the good adventure games we had on the ps2. But it is not the WII fault, it is the cinsumers fault....i mean BEN compared it with reality tv, and it is the smartest thing i read for long time on a forum. It looks to me like the end of pure adventure games on the pc after quake dominated with the sims...Not that i dont enjoy the two others, but i can still play monkey island with all the pleasure behind, and i could not touch quake on y PDA. It was a sad time for PC, it will be a sad time for CONSOLE. When we see the sales of blue dragon in the land of RPG, what happend ??? IT is made by the maestro of manga, on a powerfull and cheap system, with all the love possible, and it doesnt sell. Sure there is the fact that it is an american console, and it does not help, but look at ff3 on DS, poor score for an FF, specialy regarding the number of DSlite in japan. And what about zelda WII or CUBE selling less than half the number of wii sport.
I think we are observing a turn ( major turn ) in the videogame industry, and the leadership of nintendo will show the end of a lot of things. Never forget that they lead in hardware sales but also 90% of the games sold on their machines are nintendo franchises, a bit scary for me. After the closure of CLOVER studio, we can already say goodbye to the brilliant OKAMI, and i would like to see a sequel to shadow of the colossus with the actual market....it would sales extremely poorly. Look at loccoroco, amazing little deep game, poor sales. SAD SAD SAD ( hopefully sony is doing a second one ). Where is ELEBIT in the charts ??? all those good strange games are selling so less than NSMB or ANIMAL CROSSING, that analyst consider them failures, and studio would not even give then one more chance ( capcom did not talk about doing another rockman zx on ds after the poor sales, but are doing the 4th episode of phoenix wright...)
Lets see the future, but i am in the same feeling as another poster, i might skip the entire generation, playing old games on ps2 that i never played, and sticking with some good productions on ds and psp, and wait until some brighter visions point at the horizon.
tituspullo @ Dec 30th 2006 12:39AM
pwnd!
ac @ Dec 30th 2006 1:00AM
to darkness, a wii dominated market means that there will be complete balance between all game genres. there won't be a complete reliance on any one kind of genre (ex. MS = FPS's, and racers, sony = rpg's). in other words, there will be games for just about everyone. everyone meaning every kind of people! to quote (not an exact quote) nintendo's president, they don't just want to sell encyclopedias to their consumers, they want to also sell magazines, novels, etc etc. also someone here mentioned there won't be games like god of war on the wii. you have got to be shitting me. the wii is a far superior system than the old timer ps2. anything made for the ps2 can always be made better on the wii, and that is a fact. its up to the developers. it's their choice. also, it is known that the wii is more powerful than the original xbox. and i'm sure there were plenty of deep games on those systems, and they all can be done on the wii with some improvements. it's a matter of choice for developers and if they decide to bring this kind of content to the wii, take it seriously, and make games from the ground up utilizing the unique control system, than the wii will truly be a great system for all types of gamers, novice or not. it's a matter of getting the right balance of software to satisfy every type of gamer.
KC @ Dec 30th 2006 1:17AM
oh and #38,
Sony is doing another LocoRoco. THANKGOODNESS. I strongly feel its one of the best psp games. It certainly more polished than most of the others.
Shagi @ Dec 30th 2006 2:00AM
Who are you casual gamers infiltrating the sacred ranks of the hardcore. You guys suck, go away! Your going to ruin video games just like you ruined all art forms with your low brow mass marketed shit.
KC @ Dec 30th 2006 2:27AM
@ 42
Mass market? Dude, sports games and crappy racers are mass market casual gamers games.Especially in the U.S. Not to mention movie based games too. All of which I don't buy. But all of which flooded top sales charts for every console.
I'm a hardcore gamer and enjoy the games the Wii is offering already. The term casual gamer has changed dramatically in recent years.
I dont view as the Wii being a casual gamers machine anymore than the 360 or ps3 being for casual gamers.
There are crappy games and there are good games. There are long epics of rpgs and short quirky fun games like WarioWare. Both can be good. The Wii can offer both, as can any console. It just depends on the developers. And yes, the market is big enough for the both of them.
Captain Irreverence @ Dec 30th 2006 3:18AM
"One more time, can anyone describe what a Wii dominated game market would be like?"
It would look just like the PS2 market, only with ~3x better graphics.
You folks seem to forget that the PS2 had the worst graphics of the last generation of consoles. The Game Cube had much better graphics than the PS2. And the Wii is 2 to 3 times more powerful than the Game Cube.
Therefore, I fail to understand why a PS2-dominated market is A-OK, but a Wii-dominated market is ultra-scary.
Dukhat @ Dec 30th 2006 5:23AM
The Wii is 50% more powerful than the gamecub e you retard. The Wii uses a modified gamecube video card clocked 50% faster.
The PS3 will easily win if they pricecut by 100 dollars next fall. If they don't they are in some serious trouble. Even a 300 dollar xbox (because really, the core system is a waste of money) won't stop the MGS4/FFXIII onslaught.
The Wii will have SSB Brawl to fight back with. I'll enjoy laughing at the Wii as its sales are destroyed by the PS2 for the Christmas season.
HAHA @ Dec 30th 2006 8:03AM
im sorry guys i want into a gamestop for the 1st time since the wii came out and saw zelda being played on one of those samsung LCD they use for wii and 360 and man no lie it looked like shit. the visuals were terrible it looked very grainy and pixelated. I dont hate nintendo but i just cant play something that bad looking. Is it better looking on SDTV. Just like women i like em pretty not ugly and old looking
David004 @ Dec 30th 2006 12:19PM
I agree in the long run the PS3 is screwing Sony. Right now people are buying old PS2 tech because it's cheaper and fun, aka same with the Wii. In the long run Sony is screwing up everything.
I still hate analysts, even when I agree with them because they don't look at everything. Do you thinkthe 10 million battery recall is helping Sony? No, but they just pick up on the obviuos PS3.
DLite @ Dec 30th 2006 12:25PM
Short sell Sony shares.
Joel @ Dec 30th 2006 1:18PM
I walked into Gamestop last night and they had PS3's just sitting there waiting to be bought.
Anonymouse Rep @ Dec 30th 2006 1:49PM
@JJ - "But anonymouse, as far as i remember when the 360 launched (got mine launch day) after launch, there was basically only 1 shipment between xmas and then there were virtually NO consoles for sale for weeks on end."
The 360 was still trickling out all the way through Christmas and into March, but there were other problems with the launch.
I think the main part of the laucnh problem - and we discussed this on conference calls - was due to GameStop and EB making so damn many pre-sells without authorization. You know how they were limited during the PS3 and Wii launch. That's because Nintendo and Sony said to do that - period. Microsoft didn't put any restrictions on the stores last year - and so you had stores with 150 or more pre-sells - and then only having 20 consoles come in. A major portion of the consoles that would have hit all retailer shelves was diverted because of the grief we were catching just to try to help fill SOME of the GameStop / EB pre-sells. (Hey, they're our biggest customer - gotta try to keep them happy, right?)
Thus, the rural Wal-Marts that currently have PS3's just sitting on their shelves this year (and still have no Wii in stock) last year would see an average of 2 360's every week - and that was it. GameStop was getting the lions share of what was being produced. (IIRC, I think the total figure of GameStop pre-sells was somewhere around 600,000 consoles - which would've completely left the OTHER 10,000 retailers in this country without ANY for almost two full months. Obviously some people bought consoles other places, and stores like Best Buy did their thing on hoarding some consoles at their Distribution Center for ads, which explains the console shortage through March for the 360. What it DOESN'T do is explain why there are PS3's sitting on the shelf in Wal-Marts now in a lot of the country. That's why I want to see what happens tomorrow with the Best Buy ad for the PS3.)
As I said, if they sell out, then Sony (and their fanboys) will have a happy year. If they don't - they're quite probably up the proverbial fecal waterway.