Analyst: PS3 will win with 75 million units by 2010
Another day, another analyst throwing out their predictions for the console wars. This time it's a Datamonitor report predicting Sony will "win the console war in the long term with an install base of around 75 million globally by 2010." That may sound impressive, but considering the PS2 has already sold in excess of 111 million systems worldwide, this would still represent a sizable hit for Sony. Indeed, Datamonitor predicts that the PS3 won't "dominate as much as its predecessor" because of delays in Europe and early inroads by the Xbox 360.
Oh analysts, can't you make up your mind? Is Sony going to win big in the long run or fall into last place? Are they going to lead the market or is the system dragging the whole company down? We know you're basically just taking shots in the dark but, well, we were just hoping for some more consistent grouping, is all.
[Via Pro-G]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Paul P. @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:38PM
The PS2 sold 111 million in seven years. This analyst is predicting 75 million in just under 4. That is not really a sizeable hit.
You guys seem to never take time into account when you look at these numbers. Like November through December sales, 360 was the winner. But did it outsell the Wii in the US between November 19th and the end of the December, or is the 19 day period where it was the only one available resulting in it's win?
MosquitoControl @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:38PM
I'd say a win with 75 million units, and the other two between 40 and 60, would be the best case scenario for Sony.
But also a very likely one.
Maylon @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:40PM
Analysts, ah but you amuse me.
v1cious @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:42PM
30-40 maybe, 75 is way too high.
Flash @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:45PM
I camped for my ps3, and I would rather Sony comming in last this gen. I been playing my ps3 every day since I got it, and it makes the 360 look like the dreamcast, but if the ps3 comes on top, it would say to Sony, and its competors that its ok to raise the price, because ppl will still buy, I love my Playstation, but 500 bucks was hard for me to part with (500 for the console, 300 in add-ons). M$ priced right, and Sony sould of priced right also.
Maylon @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:50PM
Are Flash and Sony4evr the same person? It would seem so. I am not even sure he or she is serious anymore.
OmahaGTP @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:51PM
"The PS2 sold 111 million in seven years. This analyst is predicting 75 million in just under 4. That is not really a sizeable hit."
Exactly
Dream on, Sony fans. Dark times are ahead. Maybe you should reconsider the whole, treating a piece of hardware like your second born, thing.
Maylon @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:52PM
And if they are 2 different people, they should get married and hang themselves.
Nick @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:52PM
Analyst is wrong.
/cry
bm @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:55PM
"I been playing my ps3 every day since I got it, and it makes the 360 look like the dreamcast,"
LOL!
OmahaGTP @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:55PM
"I been playing my ps3 every day since I got it, and it makes the 360 look like the dreamcast"
I assume you mean the actual console aesthetics, right? Or do you not realize the 360 GPU is stronger?
mastafool @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:55PM
"I camped for my ps3, and I would rather Sony comming in last this gen. I been playing my ps3 every day since I got it, and it makes the 360 look like the dreamcast"
What games have you been playing???
reapo @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:56PM
IT is to bad that by 2009 they will already have the PS4 out, or has no one been keeping up on the news?
Ignatius @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:57PM
Wow. 75 million PS3s. Assuming there IS a price drop around 3 years time... ($100 down, MAYBE. Sony's taking a $208 loss on each one sold, and that's just at manufacturing costs for the system itself, not everything included.) The good people of the world would have to shell out approximately... $30,000,000+. No way in hell. Analysts need to stop taking bribes.
droptop GP @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:57PM
Unless I was a shareholder, I don't care.
--
It's just too bad the PS3 has only 2 games worth playing.
---
Dylan Neild @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:58PM
pro-Sony news on a Weblogs site that isn't PS3 Fanboy?
What world am I in?
Next there will be pro-Sony news on Digg, followed by pro-Blu-ray news on AVSForum, followed by Bush doing something about climate change.
Then monkeys, out my butt.
Dylan Neild @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:58PM
@OmahaGTP: Nice diversionary tactic. Tell him now about how the Cell is a lot more powerful than the Xenon.
Oh wait.. that'd be fair.
Ignatius @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:58PM
Oh, excuse me. That's $30,000,000,000. 30 Billion, not million. (At $600 a PS3 for 75 million though, it'd be 45 billion dollars)
Shagi @ Jan 2nd 2007 12:59PM
I don't agree with the analyst, but I do believe that Sony will come out on top again this generation. The price is a bit hard to swallow, but people can buy used, there will eventually be price cuts and a lot of older gamers who only buy 1 console will only be buying the PS3 from name recognition.
I think the worst thing about the PS3 is the NVidia video chip. NVidias tech has been lagging behind ATI since the 9700s, reducing the bit depth of color for renderers is really going to hurt the overall appeal of the visuals as well as NVIdias inability to perform AA without a major hit to framerate.
Man sony has always been behind on the AA front and this generation thats going to still prove to be a challenge...
I still think they will win out though.
OmahaGTP @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:02PM
"@OmahaGTP: Nice diversionary tactic. Tell him now about how the Cell is a lot more powerful than the Xenon.
Oh wait.. that'd be fair."
Does that have anything to do with looks, aka, what he was talking about?
Or the fact that the Cell or horrendously underutilized at the current state, and he said the games look better now? Which they don't.
Yeah, sorry I forgot to mention that relevant nugget of info.
Dave @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:04PM
Actually, it isn't a lot more powerful. In fact it's been discussed so many times it isn't even funny, they are roughly the same strength as far as CPU goes, but the PS3 is lacking in GPU power and memory bandwidth, which makes it a bit slower, and the lack of video memory shows poor texturing. You can see this in any 360/PS3 games. The 360 version is always superior.
jason @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:05PM
You know I don't quite understand these analysts...and maybe they haven't seen the piles of unbought ps3's.
thats no joke. Its not gonna sell much more than 20 million I predict.
You've got to agree with me...the public has turned sour on the PS3. Check Craigs List for LESS than retail. PS3 owners are dying to get rid of it. I don't think I've ever seen this.
What is Square gonna do? Just how long will they have to delay FF until the install base makes the game profitable? What if it never gets there?
I'd bet that Sony pulls out of hardware. The PS3 is a FLOP! Tough to get until March? OMG, anyone who wants a PS3 can get one EASILY! Yep...its a flop. I can't see it going anywhere. Soon MG will go to 360, and what the hell, might as well throw in FF(I know that probably won't happen).
The real truth of it here in the States is the enormous amount of bad press the PS3 received killed its chances, especially the NYT article. Its the WRONG thing to get this season.
Am I wrong?
honkyjesus @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:06PM
err, i think this analyst has yet to realize most ppl don't want a ps3
most want a wii or 360
there are ps3's sitting on store shelves right now, not everywhere, but i have recently seen it
the only time last winter i saw a 360 on a shelf anywhere was when i bought it
back to the ps3, there is one good game out for this console, that won't change anytime soon - yeah, same goes for the wii but ppl do not really care
by the time sony can manufacture the new ps3's and cut the retail costs a lot more games will be headed towards 360 - what was sony's biggest advantage last-gen? games - they had a library no one else could even come close too
that time is gone, the ps3 is a hassle for devs to make games for, the installed base will be very slow in growing so they will be paying more attention to 360 and the wii-mote
most of you already know this... the ps3 already is a bust
is this analyst the creator of that pretend psp fansite?
crono141 @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:06PM
Jebus Chisist! A non-inflamatory, mostly intellegent post from Shagi.
Its a sign of the end! Wii is All DOOMZORED.
On a serious note. This guy doesn't know what he's talking about. What data did he use for his analysis? What current trends could he possibly be referencing to make such a bold prediction?
Sony will do well based on name alone (think N64 vs PS1. N64 still sold 35 million consoles to sony's 50 some million) It'll take 4 christmas miracles for sony to reach 75 million in 4 years.
and I mean MIRACLES.
Virtua Fanboy @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:07PM
Honestly, and dumb as it may sound, I would'nt mind being a close second to Sony (I own a 360). I was a Sega kind of guy before and there was a certain dignanty to being the underdog. The reason I'm sticking w/Microsoft this round is because I know they won't make the same dumbass decisions that Sega made in the late 90's. (I can say that being a loyal Dreamcast owner til this day lol.) Sony isn't done, and that's good. If it wasn't for Sony, I wouldn't have been playing my 360 in 1080p since before the PS3 even came out. These dashboard updates, they are because of Sony and ect., ect. As for SONY4ever, get your mouth off of Krazy Ken's one inch wang and say somthing smart for once my friend.
Sony4ever @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:07PM
that's right bry bitches sony will pwn all you wii and 360 whine babies!!! WOOT WOOT PS3 WINS THE EXPERTS EVEN THINK SO!!!!
bullet @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:12PM
I predict that by the year 2010 I will become President,be the first human to walk on Mars,and meet the real Stewie from Family Guy.Oh,and I predict that by 2010 the 360 will "lose" by selling 74,999,999 consoles.
Flash @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:13PM
Every game I played on the ps3 looks better than the 360, not to mension that the great 360 game, gears of war looks like G.I Joe plastic toys, I nicknamed the game Plastic of war.
But on a more serious note, this price thing is what im worried about. If Sony comes on top again, M$'s and Sonys next console, will be 5-600 buckaroos, the nex wiii will be 3-400 buckaroonies, and hopefully, the igame will be around that too.
whosmav @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:17PM
PS3=TOTAL BUST
vidGuy @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:18PM
There's no way the PS3 sells an average of 25 million a year for the next three years. Sony will be lucky to unload 6 million a year at the current price.
Honestly, with the price, poor controller, lack of games, and rumors of the PS3 being obsolete in two years (Sony wants to "update" it AND - supposedly - release the PS4 in the next five years)... who would buy the thing? Metal Gear and Final Fantasy will be on the 360 pretty soon anyway.
Malfoy Roark @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:18PM
I think Sony will come out on top. Them losing more than half of their customers from the PS2 and assuming NO ONE who didn't buy a PS2 will buy a PS3 ranks as very low on the probability scale. MS would also have to bring in SOOO many more people on top of the Xbox fanbase that the chances of both of those events happening are even less likely.
MS fanboys like to talk about Halo and Gears of Wars as the killer apps that sells systems. Thats true, that does move Xboxes. But you also have to consider Sony moved 111 mil PS2s with out a GREAT shooter. Timekillers was ok, Killzone was ok. Nothing on the PS2 compared to the hype that was halo. Does anybody know anybody who bought a PS2 for the great shooters?
I don't.
Will Sony have some decent shooters for ps3? Yea. But their primary target isn't the FPS markets which MS seems to have on lock down. (I know all my FPS purchases that arent on PC will be on 360 and not my PS3 because the X controller is better for it.)
Sony has always been more eastern targeted or geography neutral with their system than the boys from Redmond for obvious reasons. They are based there and know how to sell the most amount of systems. Sony has the RPG market on lockdown for the most part(Oblivion is a PC RPG). But outside of that, music games, and key franchises, Sony isn't great at any genre but they are good enough at EVERY genre that they will move systems.
MS isn't good enough at every genre. I found that out when trying to get my friend to get a 360 so he could play with the rest of us, but he doesn't care much for shooters or racers. So I wasn't able to name many great games for him coming in the near future so at the moment he still doesn't have a 360. He only has a GameCube, sad really.
Some of the haters in their constant pursuit to discredit Sony always forget, that Sony is more than a gaming system, they are a mid to high end brand that a LOT of people are comfortable with. People are willing for comfortable. Sony might lose out on some of the hardcore gamers but the inevitable price drop of the system will lure in the not so hardcore person with some cash to spend who has a bravia XBR and might be surfing the web on his vaio and has heard some things about the PS3 and Sony's Blu Ray.
For better or for worse: marketing, brand recognition, and brand loyalty is a more powerful force than some "Facts" and history has shown that more often than not, the marketers win out over the "truth".
Ben Friesen @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:20PM
@ 16
What's the second game?
Jake @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:20PM
The only way this will come true is if the ps3 has a dramatic price drop. I have a wii and an xbox 360 both since launch but I have no intent to buy a ps3 unless there are great games that come out ONLY for the ps3 and if the price drops AT LEAST $200. to make the console $400 which would be a competing price with the other two consoles. I also only have an sdtv so I would want to upgrade
FrankTheCrank @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:27PM
75 Million in 4 years? The PS2 has been out for 6 years it's at 110 Million? I don't see how at 75 Million, that would be a sizeable hit? Seems to track in line with PS2...
Problem is pricing. Right now...it's too pricey. Pricing is everything. Nintendo proved that. People don't care about quality, the Wii proves this. Anything that is cheaper sells more.
Sony has created a two tiered market...the pricey and exotic with the PS3. And, the cheap and inexpensive with the PS2. They've got both markets covered.
Which other console manufacturer has the same scenario? None. This affords Sony the breathing room it needs while production costs are stabilized on the PS3.
The PS2 is still selling like hot cakes. I wouldn't bet against Sony.
MaX PL @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:28PM
haha, so on average the PS3 is going to sell 25 million units for the next three years? the PS3 will have a hard time selling 10 million this year alone. guaranteed.
LMFAO. analysts are retards.
Triple_Crown @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:29PM
I doubt it. Sony are doing such a good job at dismantling their own marketshare right now that I can just picture the Microsoft PR meetings: "All right, our new PR strategy is to just shut the hell up, since Sony's doing all our work for us".
It's a shame since the PS3 really is a great console, probably the best on the market, but Sony have just messed up so much. This is just the start of the console "wars" though, but right now I can't fathom how they'll reverse this situation.
Flash @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:29PM
Graphics are superior on the ps3. Multi platform games, Carbon for example, was deved on the 360, then ported on the ps3, so of course it would look better on the 360. Next Year, when ps3 games deved on the ps3, and vice versa on the 360, you will see the supeerior Ps3 grqaphics. If you think ps3s graphics are not as good as the 360's download gthd, Marcus Phenix, wants to look like that.
Jeff @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:31PM
"You've got to agree with me...the public has turned sour on the PS3. Check Craigs List for LESS than retail. PS3 owners are dying to get rid of it. I don't think I've ever seen this."
Let me get this straight: you've never seen a used product sell for less than retail, and you've never seen a product that's been out on the market for 1 1/2 months actually available on store shelves?
What planet do you live on? This is the way the world works.
Usedtabe @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:34PM
Sony4Evar: Click some of the other links in the article, other "experts" think the PS3 is/will be a failure. Where's that fit with your statement that the PS3 will win becuase a "expert" says so?
Flash: I took your comments with respect until you said that Gears looks like plastic GI Joes. Now I see you are nothing more than a Sony shill. No one, fan of Gears or not, can honestly believe the characters look like plastic.
CyberSage @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:38PM
I don't think the word of analysts means much. Most of them seem to be non-gamers with business degrees. Analysts predicting what will suceed and what will fail is kind of like deaf men analyzing the music industry. Analysts predicted the N64 would outsell the PS1 and that the PS2 wouldn't equal the success of the PS1, which is the opposite of what happened. Many analysts can't see further than their own noses, but they feel comfortable making predictions about the distant future.
I'm less impressed by the X360's lead than I am by the amount of quality titles it has and the quality of XBL. Based on game announcements, that balance doesn't seem to be shifting in the favor of anybody else in the forseeable future. I'm getting a PS3 because it will play host to many exclusives I am interested in (Motorstorm, White Knight Story, DMC4, Lair, Makai Wars, Warhawk, MGS4 and the inevitable SOCOM X) but based on what I'm seeing the X360 will play host to the lion's share of quality exclusives. This is meaningful because while there are some gamers so wedded to X franchise, that is all they care about, most gamers tend to follow the games.
Weather channel notwithstanding, the only thing that impresses me about the Wii thus far is the quantity/quality of classic games it is hosting. But I'm neither a traditional Nintendo fan nor a grandmother.
Of course, I'm not predicting what will happen in 2010 (many of the games which will hit in 2010 are probably only a twinkle in a developer's eye) I'm basing my conclusions off of the games that have been unveiled.
Pete C @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:41PM
Whether PS3 comes out on top or not is arguable, however it will never sell as many units as the PS2. That is a cold hard fact. Those days are over for Sony. MS brings competition the likes of which Sony has not seen thus far. The first Xbox had a massive uphill climb just trying to establish a new brand and fanbase. Now that the Xbox name has credibility, and the MS marketing muscle and money behind it, Sony will never "dominate" again. Add to this the fact that Nintendo has found a way to be competitive once again. The GameCube never really challenged PS2, but in this war it is a different story. The Wii is a formidable competitor. So, you now have two very competitive alternatives to the PS3, one of which is poised to have a price drop in the near future.
Also, THE big reason for PS2's success was Grand Theft Auto...don't forget that. Sony no longer has this franchise on lockdown. It would take something new, something we don't know about yet to tip the scales enough to cause an all-out buying spree of PS3 to ever come close to PS2. I just don't see that happening. Games like Metal Gear, Devil May Cry, and the other typical Sony franchises are not going to cut it alone.
jason @ Jan 2nd 2007 1:48PM
Jeff-Don't patronize, I meant that seeing whats happened to the PS3 is surprising. Shoulda said "didn't think I'd ever see this"
But thanks for getting that straight Moody
Who shit in your cornflakes?
RobotRock @ Jan 2nd 2007 2:00PM
39 Jeff, Don't be a 'tard. Clearly the quoted guy is talking about last years 360 launch or even the Wii. And last year that "used" product did get more than retail and were generally unavailable until March into the spring. (Also for the record most products don't sell out and become unavailable for months after release)
The demand is less for PS3 than 360 this time last year.
I am not giving out an opinion. And hey you can argue that higher price leads to a lesser demand. Look at last year's 360 launch and this year's PS3. While neither was 100%, which was more successful?
Shaifs @ Jan 2nd 2007 2:06PM
No console will sell that many in 3.2 years, even 360 who had a year jump won't sell that many. The market is also ruined, gaming is nowhere as good as it was 5+ years ago. Sony is in a lose-lose situation. If they win they still lose, if they lose they lose even more.
The more consoles they sell the more money they lose, and with each additional console they sell more games will need to be sold. To BREAK EVEN each console sold needs 50 games sold. 75 Million consoles sold means nearly 4 billion PS3 games need to be sold or sony sinks.
Oh yeah... Wii's cannot be found on any store, 360 shelves are nearly empty, and PS3 shelves are completly full. Yeah.. I can EXACTLY see why Sony is going to come out in first.
fawazr @ Jan 2nd 2007 2:06PM
Sony fanboys suddenly seem so ugly in light of the negative press. It's hard to believe that such zeal and arrogance could come from anyone other than a petulant adolescent with very little exposure to sunlight or other human beings.
Death to Sony @ Jan 2nd 2007 2:18PM
"I been playing my ps3 every day since I got it, and it makes the 360 look like the dreamcast"
One more time....this is your brain on drugs.
So the 3 or 4 major reveiew sites that put the handful of games that are on both platforms...all of which stated the 360 looks better.....were wrong.
This weekend I saw 3 yes 3 60gig PS3's at Walmart in a upscale part of town near St. Louis. The rush for the PS3 is over...after about 30 days. How long was it before you could walk into a store and pick up a 360?
To top it off if seagate can pull of the 50TB per inch in the article above this one....then BR and HD-DVD will fail....which is really bad for all of those PS3 owners.
MoonfirePewPEwPEw @ Jan 2nd 2007 2:20PM
FOR THE LAST DAMN TIME, SONY USES SHIPPED NUMBERS, NOT SOLD, SO THEY DID NOT SELL NO 110+ MILLION UNITS, I DOUBT THEY SOLD OVRE 70 MILLION.
Killer Dre @ Jan 2nd 2007 2:20PM
Some of you are also forgetting that ganes like MGS, Devil May Cry, VF5 are getting really old. MS suppported a totally new game called Gears of War that they can go with. Halo is ending with its 3rd edition. How long do you expect people to play the same game every year with a few updates. Ooops I forgot Madden. They have no competition though. PS3 is too expensive. I have one. I like the machine, but the 360 is rocking with downloads of videos, movies, dashboard themes and the games simply look outstanding. PS3 needs time. I have learned that no one can predict the future. One I can predict is that after Christmas a lot of people do not have $600 plus additional money for games and a simple HDTV cable ($60) to put down. When the real games come and that looks like March, maybe Sony can begin to sell PS3s. They made us wait with a lack of PS3s before Christmas. People will make them wait until another 3 months due to the lack of finances. There goes that tax return check.
Flash @ Jan 2nd 2007 2:27PM
Death to Sony
"To top it off if seagate can pull of the 50TB per inch in the article above this one....then BR and HD-DVD will fail....which is really bad for all of those PS3 owners"
If you have a 50tb hdd, you still need ways of putting data on it, have you tried downloading a 40 gig movie?
tack @ Jan 2nd 2007 2:31PM
75 million if
1. Remove the bluray garbage and lower the price $150 to what it should cost.
2. Create an online network that's worth playing on.
3. Install a hardware resolution scaler. Durrrrr!
There are tons of reasons NOT to buy a ps3, the main one being its not the best option out there for a gamer. But 75 million people that are stupid enough to think they should buy it so their ps2 games they'll never play again dont go to waste.