Analyst: PS3 will win with 75 million units by 2010

75 million if

1. Remove the bluray garbage and lower the price $150 to what it should cost.

2. Create an online network that's worth playing on.

3. Install a hardware resolution scaler. Durrrrr!


There are tons of reasons NOT to buy a ps3, the main one being its not the best option out there for a gamer. But 75 million people that are stupid enough to think they should buy it so their ps2 games they'll never play again dont go to waste.

To Flash #38: Where did you learn to spell??? It's almost impossible to read your post.
Anywho... Because the 360 is so much easier to develope for, almost all of the games, except PS3 1st party, will be developed on the 360 and ported to the PS3. You will rarely (if ever) see a game for both consoles that looks better on the PS3.

"Also, THE big reason for PS2's success was Grand Theft Auto...don't forget that. Sony no longer has this franchise on lockdown. It would take something new, something we don't know about yet to tip the scales enough to cause an all-out buying spree of PS3 to ever come close to PS2. I just don't see that happening. Games like Metal Gear, Devil May Cry, and the other typical Sony franchises are not going to cut it alone."

As far as I'm concerned- This is a one sided opinion coming from someone who was forced to buy a ps2 because he loved grand theft. I got the game, played it for a few weeks till all the funny went away, I never beat it and when san andreas came out- I played it at a friends house till it got old, Though making CJ look like some crazy bum black dude was awesome. lmfao good times.

Everyone is just down pouring on the ps3, The Pricing is the key thing to the ps3 moving boxes, but you know what, their still moving boxes. When it launches in Europe, they'll continue moving boxes, even if it is at a slow pace- once they hit 3 million, that's 3 million people who will play your exclusives, 3 million paying 60+ for a game that cost 20 million to make and 3x60=180, so 180 million to get back your losses and make your gains. So that being an analyst of it's own right there, is just numbers. Once developers know they won't make a loss with great exclusives, more designers/developers will design on the ps3, moving more boxes, etc. this is probably what the business people see, and this is also what I see, being a gamer more than business man. Ps3 won't come out on top, but I know for a fact it's on my must get list, with a 360 for my other needs, like fable and oblivion.

Sony can't even get rid of that $600 console NOW! What anyone think that will change this year? I stopped by Best Buy today on my lunch break and still can't find ANY extra nunchucks, remotes, or VC controllers, BUT I did see a sign saying they had PS3 upon request.
$600 is TOO MUCH for a gaming console, period, end of story. Yes I can afford one, I was actually considering getting it just for using as a Linux fileserver, but I couldn't justify spending $600. I don't need a new Linux machine THAT bad. My old Mac is still handling the job fine.

The ONLY way for Sony to start selling PS3s is if they come out with a version WITHOUT Blu-ray and that should drop the costs by $300. I will be back on the Sony ship then, but we all know this won't happen.

I don't think this guy is right...my local BB had 40 PS3s on Sunday. Monday they still had 17. Today they still had over ten. These are sitting out in the middle of the walkway, strongly secured, waiting for people to take them up to the checkout. No one wants them.

The best part was the people who saw the small waiting line Sunday morning and automatically thought it was for the WII and jumped in line without asking.

MoonfirePewPEwPEw has a great point.
Sony (for the period ending March 06) claimed they moved 23.27 mil units PS2 in Japan. Last week, as in 9 months later, they have SOLD 21.78. In the US sony claimed 41.82 in March, in November they sold through 41.87.
So no, sony has not hit 110 worlwide.
Right now it is (probably) just above 100. A great milestone, but a bit less than sony claims.

Alecks, even the very BEST first party exclusived won't be bought by everyone who owns the console. Only about 75% of Wii owners also own Twilight Princess.

The flip side to your argument also is that if there are 3 million PS3 owners who could potentially buy your product, at the same time there are 10 million 360 owners who could potentially buy your product. Using your own math: 10 million x $60 a game is $600 million. Thats a good bit more money than the potential $180 million you quoted for a sony developer.

Given the 2 potential earning ceilings, which would you pick to develop for, all else being equal? (which they aren't. Everything else a developer might consider before developing for a system has the 360 in high favor, except japanese penetration).

The only way it will hit 75 is if people have to buy the system 5 times like they had to withthe PS2.

An analyst from Sony told me it would sell 2 billion units. An analyst from Nintendo said they would sell 2 billion units. And analyst from MS said they would sell 2.1 billion units and take over the world!

Analysts are just guessing, there guesses are about as good as the weather assholes, aka for you Sony freaks, not very good.

The FACTS as they are now has Sony hurting.

heh. jason. don't feel too bad. jeff's a sony fan who's been handed a cereal bowl full of defecation and he's bitter now.

tho, even i'll have to say that the ps3 is a great gaming console. just $300 great and not $600 great. and unfortunately, it's a ghetto blu-ray player in a market where it's all about having the absolute best.

game consoles (mass market) -- best experience for the cheapest price.

videophiles (niche) -- best experience no matter the price.

unfortunately, the ps3 sits right there in the middle with no target market. there's no such thing as a mass market for video snobs who want to pay more through the nose for a combo game console.

and, as to the sell through of the ps3? that analyst is high. i've already explained it here:
http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/20/microsoft-developer-doubts-wiis-endurance/2#c2962710

m3mnoch.

too high of a price point - unless they can make it cheaper and quickly they have no shot at 75M.

I posted a response to this on my blog, http://www.gamedailyxl.com/2007/01/02/ps3-to-lead-console-... All it says is who the hell are these dudes? I went and checked out. The article is solely based on the table of contents and a small blurb on the site. To get the full report you are required to pay. I have seen this story posted on a few sites (kotaku, gamasutra) and no one seems to have actually went to find out where they came up with this prediction. I just wish someone would pay for the report
larry C
gamedailyxl.com

i can tell you for sure, when it comes to video games. wall street analysts DONT know what gamers do.

just look at this vid of the S&P!!'s analyst
http://www.thestreet.com/_tscs/video/strategysession/10327091.html

This is how it will happen, we all know it

-- The Wii will continue to well well for another year. then it's sales will drop by about 50% each year the next 2 years. Then sales will remain at that level.

-- The 360 will continue selling and sales will be Boosted when the price drops after 65nm fab in the summer. Sales will remain at current levels with exclusives continuing to push sales.

-- The PS3 who's sales have already died down from the initial Rush to Win (by acquiring one). People want what they cant have, and now that they can have it; they dont want it.

PS3 sales will slow down and remain steady until the end of the year when MGS4 comes out & Sony issues it's $100 price drop. MGS4 & the price drop will likely sell another 2 million units on its own.

Sales will pick up but still remain equal w/ the 360 who's library will still be significantly better.

Developers will begin to utilize the Cell in 2008. Graphics will still stay on par w/ the 360, but exclusive titles written specifically for the PS3 will have features like video incorporation into real time gameplay.

Sony will likely release a new controller w/ rumble & motion sensing due to developer feedback & gamers frustration (chosing 360 version over PS3 because of rumble). As they did w/ the PS1 (Dual Analog -> Dual Shock)

Sony will continue to try and improve its online service to be as usable but Live! but will never get there since Live! will continue to improve on it's own & Sony's decision to offer it free will present serious financing issues.

in the end the PS3 will be like the PS2 now. it will sell well even after the PS4 has come out. the 360 will probably not sell as well when it's successor comes out. this is because Sony will likely rengineer the PS3 as they did w/ the PS2 to offer it as a budget console w/ many value games.

MS will, on the other hand, drastically reduce 360 production & concentrate on new cutting edge affordability. They've found their neiche. Come out early w/ a console that's easy to develop for & provide the tools to develop for it free. This will cue ingenuity which will spawn surprises and will continue to generate positive buzz around its market share.

so in the end the Wii will be in third place and the PS3 and 360 will remain neck & neck; w/ the PS3 surpassing it when MS releases it's next console & 360 sales migrate.

Word to 44. & 59. I knew someone was feeling me.

Its crazy to me to hear any positive spin on the PS3 right now. When consumers judge, they judge hard and the PS3 is sinking fast. Any analyst who wants credibility needs to redo those numbers for Sony. Maybe in Japan it will do relatively well, but I believe this is the beginning of the end for Sony's console biz. They've lost nearly all of their aces.
And I'm sorry Jeff, in this day and age, on this planet, any next-gen console that performs like the PS3 so far has to be viewed as a total failure.
Buy hey, what are people going to do? You compare the 360 and PS3 and its cut and dry. The PS3 is doing nothing better than the 360. 1080p is just not a factor. Blu-ray is not either. You could always add HD-DVD to your 360. And with Vista being pro-HD-DVD its only gonna get worse for Blu-Ray.

Sony better be thinking of incentives, cause at this point I wouldn't entertain getting a PS3 EVER. They couldn't give me one to play, cause I'd trade it for a 360...even trade.

My predictions:

* USA will favor the Xbox 360 (vs PS3) throughout its lifespan.
* Europe gets another PS3 delay push (1 to 2 months). But when it hits, it sells equaly with the 360.
* MGS4 stays PS3 exclusive, but DMK3 jumps ship and goes multi.
* Halo 3 "disappoints" - in the same way Halo 2 did... It sells well though.
* Namco brings Soul Calibur 4 to both systems, but Tekken stays on PS3.
* Blu-ray becomes the dominant format.. (I don't like it)
* Xbox 360 sales will rise in japan late 2007.
* PS3 sells well in Japan and europe, but xbox 360 keeps its lead throughout.

these are my predictions - and yeah, they may be a total miss.

If all these analysts have all these different outcomes its obvious they do not have a clue...

The PS3 has sold close to a million units in just over a month's time. They haven't even launched in Europe.

360 is a just over 7 million units. It took them over 12 months to get there.

You do the math.

360 at $399 is a rip...you get a 20GB hard drive, wireless controller.

PS3 at $499...you get a 20GB hard drive, wireless controller, HDMI, free online play and bluray.

Do the math...what's the better deal.

Console Aesthetics? The Xbox 360 is by far something I'm glad to have on show in the bedroom and front living room.
The PS3 is rather ugly, it looks like something that only looks at home next to a VCR. The PS3 standing up looks much better because it's nice and shiny, but only if its faced outwards.
The 360 looks fine from all angles. It looks great in any home.
And plus, most people are aware that white or at least silver is necessary for all new electronic products... it's minimalistic, and that's what people are going for these days. The Playstation 3 kind of walks back into the past with their big black monster.
If you're looking for a console, for many many reasons the 360 will look after your entertainment needs a lot more than the PS3 will.

You do realise that there is good reason why Sony launched white and silver PS2's.
You could wait until they do the same with the PS3, but I'd rather not wait until 2008 or possibly 2009...

to 65:FrankTheCrank

Don't forget the wii

3.5 million in a few months(acording to vgcharts.org)

ps3 will loose by waaaaaaaaay far

the winner will be a tight wii-xbox 360 tie . _.

The 20+ units that are sitting untouched at the Best Buy store I work at out of the 32 we had on Sunday sure don't seem to agree with this assessment. It's so funny...we get 50-60 questions a day about the Wii, yet no one will touch the PS3, even when we specifically tell them that we have them available to sell. Whatever analyst wrote this needs to pull his head out of his arse.

Was the analyst rapping about wanting a PSP for xmas when he made his prediction?

Btw, don't count on the PS3 making up too much ground on the 360 in Japan. The fight is USA and Europe. Japan has move on to mobile gaming. Just look at the latest top selling games there, at least 15 out of the top 20 belong to the DS. Home console gaming is dead in Japan, MS & Sony just don't know it yet. The Wii is the only console that offer a different enough experience to stand a chance there.

guys this is never going to happen! Sony already said they are going to be putting out ps4 by 2009. They haven't said "WHY", but with the way the ps3 flopped I don't think it hard to guess why they are already talking about releasing the ps4.

bottom line by 2009 you will be shelling out $2000 for a ps4 and that is straight from the mouth of Sony! Google it if you don't believe.

Broken systems make great sale numbers....

One thing I forgot.

The PS3 has sold more copies in Japan in 1.5 months than the 360 has sold in a year. the battle with be in the UNited States and Europe. Europe will not spend $1,000 on a system.

Is it analyst or Anal Cyst? Anyway, how can the PS3 have an identity with the PS2 hanging around for the next two or more years. We are already seen where most of the sells are going this holiday season and it will continue into next year holiday season. The PS3 has some strong competitors to overcome, even in house.

Brand name is not the biggest factor for a systems success but certainly it helps. Look how the N64 got pounded by Sony not because of the fact Sony has a better name brand but because they had more games and many more quality ones. Granted Nintendo probably wouldn't have sold as many as it had if it hadn't of been for their prior successes but the N64 was a total failure due to its lack of support. The reality is Sony earned its brand name and loyality because it had 2 successful systems. They had 2 successful systems because they always used the same successful formula. The Playstation was cheap to make games on and easy to develope and had a large variety of games due to large third party support. It was also affordable and they were able to lower its price eventuallly to a point casual gamers would buy it.

PS2 carried many of those aspects with the exception of being easier to develope for but it still retained good support because it had built its brand imagne last gen. It also released before Xbox and Gamecube. All of those advantages are gone and now its way overpriced and has serious shortages at launch and now reports are showing they are sitting on selfs not being bought. Thats not a good sign and there is not that many exclusive games coming out for PS3 in the coming year at least in terms of being system moving games. 360 and Wii are both selling well and have a lot of great games coming in 07. What the hell is Sony gonna do? I dont see them lowering the price 100 or 200 dollars and even if they did that might not work if there are no good games yet. The reality is if Sony doesnt start building some kind of momentum before the year is over you can expect them in third place. Name brand will not save them they will learn that the same way Nintendo did with the 64.

An opinion is one thing. A lie is another. I have to wonder about Flash. To say the same game on PS3 looks better than 360 has seen a concensus that the 360 games look better. Check Gamespot for a side by side comparision of you want more. For REAL proof, for our game - which is on both systems - we had to turn OFF some effects on the PS3 because the GPU is just dog. Plain and simple. The SPUs are the only thing saving the PS3. Using them to their fullest is a headache if you're not Sony exclusive... And you can forget that idea.

Sony screwed up and folks that don't want to admit that either are either:

1) on the payroll
2) blind and stupid - you don't know what you're talking about and are just spewing hype.
3) trolling/joking around

I'm not trying to insult anyone. I'd like to believe that #3 is the most common case. I'm just saying that Sony, from a totally unbiased perspective, really messed up this round. This isn't Sony hate. Competition is good. All 3 doing well is good for all. But the GPU was a TOTAL afterthought because they thought the "Cell" would slice bread. It doesn't. They thought folks would just buy into BRD. They haven't. The movie sales are all you need to check out for proof of that one. Their "online" presences is the WORST of their screw ups. Anyone that thinks it compares to XBL is completely clueless. They figure the brand is strong enough... Well, it's very strong. Very, very strong. It's unfortunate that people buy so much by brand. But with that price tag and the lack of quality titles, they are hurting that brand and the price is just STUPID high. That's a big reason the PSP is getting DESTROYED as well as the me-too titles on it!

But don't take my word for it. Even THEY admitted their mistakes at a recent technical summit with developers in mid-December. Hopefully, they'll actually learn from them. We will see. Coming in last for Sony would be a GOOD thing. As a fan, you should hope they take a lump so that they make a better product in the next round. Don't think for a second that they would drop out of hardware. That'd be stupid to believe that they would drop hardware. This is Sony. Not Sega.

One argument for getting the ps3 is the playstation library of games,but it's a whole new ballgame.As much as people like MGS4 and GTA4 etc...,people want to know,myself included,what new games do you have to offer?Exclusives won't play as important as they once were,at least not as much.That changes everything.We can look back at the ps2 and say they had a lot of great exclusives.Nobody knows if that will continue.It's nothing but a guessing game from now on.Can anyone say as fact,without wishful thinking,that the ps3 library of games will DEFINATELY be better that the 360.The 360 has already proven that a good supply of games is high on the priority list.Microsoft isn't stupid.They heard the talk of not enough good games and with games like Mass Effect,Bioshock,Resident Evil 5(?),Burnout Revenge 5,Alan Wake,GTA4 etc...they are doing very well getting these games on their console.Everyone has an opinion.Everyone thinks their right.Everyone seems to know what the end result will be for the next consoles.Maybe the 360 will start out strong and then tank.Maybe the ps3 will go from being king to getting flushed down the toilet.Maybe everyone will get blindsided and the Wii will finish on top.Only the crystal ball really knows.The problem is,none of us has THE crystal ball that really does know.Personally,I don't care who wins.I just want enough good and fun games to play throughout my consoles lifetime.Why is it important which one,the 360 or the ps3,is the better console or the most powerful?If a Lambourgini is a better car but you have a Ferrari,is the Ferrari not good enough?You couldn't be happy with a Ferrari?I have a 360 and I don't care if the graphics don't get better,even though I know they will,than Gears of War.There's a hell of a lot of people that feel the same way I do.People are studying and analyzing the graphics of the 360 and ps3,ported or not.Seems to me the reason people NEED to get the "best" most "powerful" console is nothing more that ego and to bang their chest."My ps3 is 2.48% better than your 360".Well congratulations,that must mean your more of a man than I am.Seems like the ps3 has to be better and has the added pressure of being the better console.If the 360 isn't as good as the ps3 it won't be a surprise to anyone because it wasn't supposed to be.Sony hyped the ps3 as being MUCH better to the point of saying the 360 is almost laughable.If the ps3 isn't MUCH better than Sony AND it's brainwashed fans have said then Sony has failed.If the ps3 is that much better than the 360 it might not show it's mighty biceps until the end of the 360's life which would make the ps3's hype kind of meaningless.I know I've rambled on too much.Ok,I'm done.

After my last "novel" above I know your sick of me but...one more thing.The ps3 price drop.Sony is losing $240 to $300 on each console.How can they afford to lower the price?What are they going to do,drop the price by $100 and now lose $340 to $400 a console?I don't know a damn thing about business but can ANY company afford to do that?Micrsoft has a shitload of cash as well but even they couldn't afford to lose that much and would the gamble be worth it?I would think Sony executives are not exactly thrilled about a price drop.I wonder if Bill Gates got a ps3 price tag as a Christmas gift.If he did,he must have been smiling from ear to ear.I'm sure Bill wished Sony a Merry Christmas but I don't think Bill would be sarcastic enough to wish Sony a happy new year.It would be like kicking someone when they're down.