Analyst: Wii to beat expectations, 360 to meet 'em, PS3 ... not so much

by Blake Snow { Jan 4th 2007 at 2:45PM }

Early estimates by CNBC via data falsely attributed to NPD suggests that both Microsoft and Nintendo had a jolly holiday season while the PS3 ... eh ... not so much. A new analyst preview of upcoming NPD stats from Lazard Capital implies the same:

"Our checks indicate that Nintendo's Wii console continues to sell well, while Sony PS3 supplies improved somewhat towards the end of the holiday period. We believe Microsoft's Xbox 360 is on track to reach our 2006 sales estimate of 4.5 million units in the U.S., while Nintendo's Wii will likely exceed our original 1.2 million-unit target. Our estimate for PS3 sales in the U.S. for 2006 remains 700k units."

The report also estimates total industry growth of software on the year at 5%. And to put an end to early personal observations and case study performance reports, look for NPD's year-end sales data available Jan 11. Hoo-ra.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Phil @ Jan 4th 2007 2:54PM

I'm tired of all these analysts report ! Why don't we wait and see ? Or at least wait just a bit longer to make prediction ? Right now I think it's way too soon for anyone to make any precise prediction.

Skwurl @ Jan 4th 2007 2:56PM

But what about all the kids who wanted a PSP this x-mas? Surely that made up for lost sales? I mean, did you SEE the rap?

Neil @ Jan 4th 2007 3:03PM

Who cares anymore.

Juan Tan @ Jan 4th 2007 3:05PM

I don't really care about these console wars. I just can't wait to see the report showing how the DS pwned all three. =D

redspear @ Jan 4th 2007 3:06PM

Phil please read the article. This is about THIS years sales and predictions.

He is saying that the Wii is going to beat their expectations for 2006 the 360 is going to meet them and the PS3 is going ot be behind what they predicted. This is for 2006 not the whole generation.

v1cious @ Jan 4th 2007 3:08PM

keywords: "In The US".

Phil @ Jan 4th 2007 3:13PM

@5 You're totally right ... I just read the word "Analyst " and ... kinda freaked out ! Sorry !

Zoot Suit Jedi @ Jan 4th 2007 3:15PM

Even the slightest disparity between supply and demand indicates an economic problem. With the Wii we're seeing that supply cannot meet demand, good for Ninty - bad for consumers. With the Playstation the opposite is occuring, where supply is currently overreaching the demand, bad for Sony - bad for consumers (ie console does not meet expectations). Those of you 'wait and seers' out there should be concerned by these initial reports as they ARE an indication of future trends. Unless something changes with the PS3 that can move demand along the curve to right then Sony will be in trouble.

Reoccuring story for a persistent problem.

heyo007 @ Jan 4th 2007 3:35PM

The Black Wii is pimp.

sheppy @ Jan 4th 2007 3:49PM

As long as I get my Sony exclusives on PS3, I'm happy, period. I have all three but Sony deved games were some of the better last gen and I'd love to see that carry over in the new generation.

Mr. Khan @ Jan 4th 2007 3:52PM

Exactly, this is an analyst opinion based on facts, not on Long-term predictions

Refreshing, as analyst opinions are getting crazier daily (like that astrologer, what the hell was that?)

Ken @ Jan 4th 2007 3:57PM

Come on February and the PS3 Oblivion release. Then I can start playing and stop reading endless, meaningless analysis reports.

The Kid @ Jan 4th 2007 4:00PM

I've lost my will to live!

Kojima @ Jan 4th 2007 4:02PM

Playstation never had an amazing launch simply because of the weak launch titles. Don't expect the console to be sold out worldwide when most of the games are either titles we never heard of or half assed ports from Xbox 360. Let's wait and see what these analysts will say after MGS4, FFXII, Tekken 6, Winning Eleven (Pro Evolution Soccer in Europe) and all the good titles are released. MGS4 alone will sell consoles so sony better keep these titles PS3 exclusive.

Scott Krueger @ Jan 4th 2007 4:18PM

The PS3 only sold 750,000 because there was only 750,000 available. All 3 had a Jolly Christmas Season.

I don't see how the PS3 has more supply than demand. I have yet to see one on the Shelf anywhere!
I've seen plenty of Pictures that people took at Best Buy of all the PS3s stacked up before they sold. Every Best Buy around me was sold out of the 75 or so that they stock piled for the After Christmas Sales. But go ahead lie if it supports you argument.

Tristan @ Jan 4th 2007 4:36PM

I own all three consoles but I have to say I never turn my PS3 on. GT HD was fun for about two days and now there isn't crap to play that I can't play on my 360. The thing I find funny is that the Wii demand is still through the roof but you can walk into any store and pick up a PS3. The funny part is that nobody is buying them even though they are available. I live in a city of 200,000 people and every store has at least 8 Premium PS3's in stock. Come on Sony where are the games that make people need your system?

Apoklypse @ Jan 4th 2007 4:37PM

Sorry Scotty- I just saw 9 of em at Best Buy and 4 at Target during lunch. This is in Willow Grove, a suburb just North of Philly.

The supply has either exceeded demand- or people still are under the belief that it is hard to come by and stopped looking. (Despite the fact that Best Buy advertised them for Sunday, and here we are 5 days later and they still had them.)

JasonB @ Jan 4th 2007 4:42PM

Scott,

I'm not sure where you are located, but on Monday of this week I walked into the Best Buy on Cobb Parkway in Atlanta, GA at lunch time and they had 19 PS3's. On Tuesday I stopped at the Costco at the Cumberland Mall and they had 1 PS3 bundle. And today I stopped by the FYE in the Cumberland mall and they had several PS3's for sale in the store. So, at least in some places, the PS3 is not difficult to find at all.

Almack64 @ Jan 4th 2007 5:11PM

@ #8 Zoot Suit Jedi,
I agree completely, also your post reminded me of the economics course it took. I literally visualized the curves moving. And actually those who want the wii are actually only in a bad spot for now. With demand as high as it is and retail prices stuck (does not include auctions and such) the only way Nintendo will be able to maximize their profit is to increase supply which is bound to happen unless there are inherent production problems.

nick @ Jan 4th 2007 5:19PM

I'm not sure you need to be an analyst to look at what's happening right now and simply restate the obvious.

Duscrom @ Jan 4th 2007 5:27PM

Same here in the Chicagoland suburbs. Fry's, and Best Buy still have plenty of their stash of PS3s. And if you don't believe that, check eBay for the barely retail prices at which the PS3's are selling.

And #6, what do you mean by "keywords: "In The US"."? The US is the largest market in the world, Followed closely by Europe.

ackmondual @ Jan 4th 2007 6:01PM

This is a pretty good scenario for Nin. The media's lowered expectation has allowed Nin to "under promise" and over deliver.

kamui @ Jan 4th 2007 7:25PM

For the love of god, no more analyst reports!

samfish @ Jan 4th 2007 9:57PM

The thing is, Kojima, that while those games you mentioned are system sellers, they aren't going to propel the PS3 (or 360/Wii, should they get a port) into the sales stratosphere. They're going to sell to their niches. They might be large niches, but niches none-the-less. You could also say the same for a Zelda/Mario/Nintendo game and something like Halo.

The PS2, as many have noted, really didn't take off until GTA2 came out. The PS1 didn't take off until Final Fantasy VII came out.
What ANY one of these systems needs to become the "winner" is a breakout title. It's stupid to assume that FFXIII, Mario Galaxy or Halo 3 are going to be able to sell units at the degree to which a lot of people are assuming.

Granted, it COULD be one of those titles. Who knows? Maybe MGS4 will be SO mind blowingly awesome, it'll make units fly off the shelves...but I doubt it.

KC @ Jan 4th 2007 11:32PM

I will buy a ps3 when ZOE3 comes out.

Till then, it's a no go. I'm sure there are other gamers who will buy a console for one game. Just wait and see with everything.

On a little side note....it's not doubt the ps3 isnt hot anymore. People finally see that it offers nothing new compared to what the 360 can do with its games.
ps3 is completely worthless right now. Crap games. And yes, Resistance is pretty average, but the only reason its critically aclaimed is because its the ONLY decent game on the thing. ps3 = no good games.

Paul Mitchell @ Jan 4th 2007 11:36PM

Wii will beat expectations, I have not seen a Wii in the stores since Dec. 17, it always sells out. The problem will be how many Nintendo can make.

I have seen many different kinds people just stop and look at the Wii display. I went to Target at 9am, and two middle aged ladies were intrested on the Wii.

I agree that PS3 will not sell, I have seen 3 PS3 @ two differents Target, 2 @ gamestop, and someone was returning their PS3 at a different gamestop.

Wii60 FTW

serge @ Jan 5th 2007 12:00AM

i am getting 360 when ninja gaiden 2 comes out.
i cant even think about ps3, its unsatisfying.
look at the price and games, this console will never do well, at least i hope so. sick of sony and their products. cant do anything right bah. =[

Sly @ Jan 5th 2007 1:46AM

Pick up a 360 Christmas 2005 and a Wii launch day preorder Gamestop. 360 was a hard to find rare pickup at Kmart. It was well into March before you can land one guaranteed. About 2 million or so worldwide at that time. I could of purchase 2 more Wiis on launch day at retail. After that, the Wii has been totally nonexistance as the 360 during last holiday season. Hot item? Sure. Shortage? Very short. Nintendo over projecting their supply to the U.S.? Damn right. What created this shortfall? Making sure they will beat Sony in the Japanese market by shipping most of their consoles there. I would think that Zelda would have higher sell number with well over half of the number of console owners adding this title to their collection. PS3 looks easily obtainable (Walmart or Best Buy).

Vostronius @ Jan 5th 2007 3:06AM

yeah, I sure wonder if the reason behind the PS3 not selling is that people don't think they will be able to get one so they don't look or they just don't want one. I personally don't want one cuz price and lack of any good games. I was walking in downtown San Francisco and walked past an EBgames with about 5 PS3's stacked behind the window. Not a good sign for Sony.

danny @ Jan 5th 2007 5:00AM

c'mon you guys evreyday i read something about how badly the ps3 is doing. well most of you says that you do not want a ps3 so why are complaining.all these talks about how bad the system is,how is not selling,how wii and xbox360 is better then you should be happy that ps3 is not selling cuz most of you hate the system. i be the first one to admit that sony mess up on quite a few areas not least the price and the whole launch fiasco but one should not forget that the so call console war will run and run. it not going to be decided in two months.sure ps3 is behind now cuz of lack of good games but once it got good games out then it will sell very well. wii is no doubt the most innovating console at the moment but it continuous sale will depend on how they develop innovating games compatible with the wiimote. one must not forget that they always had the more innovating machine but in the past they let themselves and gamers down with lack of games/bad games/games mostly for asian market. now the wiimote is a novelty but it is how they keep the concept interseting that will decide if they keep doing well.remember the so call casual gamers they are aiming for are not very loyal. after a few days/weeks/months they might just lose interest.all that siad i think wii is great for the moment and a good buy. for xbox i guess while they have a one year start is something good cuz they have sold about 10 million(GUESSING HERE)but the fact that they couldn't outsold ps2 and have no grip in the asian market should be a sign for concern. now with competition and the fact that they mostly have fps games and while gow is good and had help the console i doubt how much halo3 is going to help sell since i am pretty sure that the people who bought 360 to play gow are the same one who will play halo.Microsoft should diversify their games content to be able to succesfully compete though live is great from what i have gather. ps3 success will rest on how quick they sort out shortage prob and how quick they provide quality and a certain quantity of games for us to enjoy. the whole blu ray player things is minor.also if the sixaxis become an intergral parts of ps3 games and is good then it will definetely do well. anyway competition is good for us gamers cuz i am sure now that the bar has been raised sony is probably working hard to improve all the aspect of ps3 or they may end up failing horribly. and when it all said and done it is the games that is going to decide the winner if there is one and not the console on it own.the next year or two should be very interesting and rather than proclaim a winner now one should wait and hope there is no clear winner so that competition and innovation will be tha name of the game.

Ciaran @ Jan 5th 2007 6:19AM

This analysis sounds about right!

SmilingAssassin @ Jan 5th 2007 11:26AM

I live in Los Angeles and went by a compound comprised of Best Buy, Toys R Us, and Costco and found plentiful supplies of PS3's. There was literally a stack 4 and 1/2 fwwt high of PS3 boxes and no one buying them. On the other hand there were no Wii's at any of the stores.

TrickAssP @ Jan 5th 2007 2:38PM

Statistics can be used to prove anything. 14% of all people know that!

Achim @ Jan 5th 2007 2:56PM

If the PS 3 was such a hot comodity they would not be selling for near cost on E-Bay. The Wii is the clear surprise winner so far in the round of the console wars with the 360 fairing well due to it's early lead. With that said it would be stupid to count out the PS 3 this early in the cycle.

hippie pieces @ Jan 5th 2007 4:11PM

post30 Danny "the whole blu ray player things is minor.also if the sixaxis become an intergral parts of ps3 games and is good then it will definetely do well."

The Blu-Ray player is most of the problem. The system is too expensive because Sony decided to jam a proprietary movie player into our beloved Playstation. It cost games too much, 3rd parties too much to develop for and even Sony is taking a big loss on all systems sold. It doesn't make sence to buy, develop for or even sell the PS3. No one cares about the Blu-Ray movie format and gamers feel cheated. It's kind of hard to say Sony got greedy when they are loosing money... I guess Sony got stupid!

As for the "Kirby's Tilt and Tumble" controller... No rumble Sony? Seriously? You can't leave out the basics on a now retro controller and claim to be high tech.