Does 2007 have a console daddy? Who will ultimately win the hotly contested console war? To find out, Gamasutra asks the people whose job it is to advise investors on the gaming industry. That's right, the analysts (dah, dah, dahhhhh!). Here are some of their predictions.Mike Wolf from ABI Research expects the Wii to outperform both the 360 and PS3 this year, but that Nintendo must leverage more than just the Wiimote if it wishes to outlast the other two. Wolf doesn't speak directly on 360 sales, but believes a price drop may be in store, and for sure, a harddrive upgrade in 2007. Regarding the PS3, he all but says Blu-ray was a bad business move, because the technology increased both the retail price and production costs of the PS3, frustrating would-be buyers and potential price cuts in the process.
David Cole of DFC Intelligence believes it's still too early to determine a winner but expects the 360 to outsell the 24 million Xbox 1s. Regarding the PS3, he's optimistic about its long-term potential, but suggests "the PlayStation base may not be as loyal or patient as Sony is counting on."
Lastly, Michael Pachter predicts the Wii will "reign supreme" through 2008, outselling both the 360 and PS3 at 10 million units per year, roughly 20+ million after only two years. But he believes both Microsoft and Sony can make claim as the console winner by 2008-2009. In short, the 360 will chug along selling well throughout its life, while the PS3 will start slow but catch on after Sony wins both the HD movie war and the graphics war by 2009. Basically, he believes they all win.
